В статье описана специфика временной перспективы личности и осмысленности компонентов временного континуума у военнослужащих-контрактников, проходящих службу на территории Камчатского края. Анализируются как общие закономерности восприятия времени собственной жизни военнослужащими по контракту, так и особенности, обусловленные влиянием характера профессиональной деятельности. Показано, что особенности отношения к настоящему не специфичны для военнослужащих представителей разных профессиональных групп, в то время как отношение к будущему и характер его осмысления определяется непосредственными условиями несения воинской службы. ; The article describes such psychological phenomena of Kamchatka region servicemen as some peculiarities of their time perspective and time continuum components realization. The author analyses both common patterns of the life-time perception among the servicemen and their peculiarities formed by the type of military professional activity. The results of the research show that the servicemen from different professional groups dont demonstrate any special attitude towards present time, but their attitude to the future is formed by the direct conditions of their military service.
The article describes such psychological phenomena of Kamchatka region servicemen as some peculiarities of their time perspective and time continuum components realization. The author analyses both common patterns of the life-time perception among the servicemen and their peculiarities formed by the type of military professional activity. The results of the research show that the servicemen from different professional groups dont demonstrate any special attitude towards present time, but their attitude to the future is formed by the direct conditions of their military service. ; В статье описана специфика временной перспективы личности и осмысленности компонентов временного кон- тинуума у военнослужащих-контрактников, проходящих службу на территории Камчатского края. Анализируются как общие закономерности восприятия времени собственной жизни военнослужащими по контракту, так и особен- ности, обусловленные влиянием характера профессиональной деятельности. Показано, что особенности отноше- ния к настоящему не специфичны для военнослужащих - представителей разных профессиональных групп, в то время как отношение к будущему и характер его осмысления определяется непосредственными условиями несения воинской службы.
Рассматривается понятие «разумный срок» в свете современной реформы гражданского законодательства России. Проводится сравнительный анализ положений действующего Гражданского кодекса РФ и проекта федерального закона о внесении изменений в Гражданский кодекс Российской Федерации. Ставится вопрос о значении понятия «согласие на совершение сделки». Высказывается тезис о возможности понимания разумного срока не только как срока исполнения гражданско-правовых обязанностей, но и как срока для волеизъявления. ; The article deals with the concept of «reasonable time» in light of the modern reform of the civil legislation of Russia. A comparative analysis of the statutes of the existing Civil Code and the draft of the federal law on amendments to the Civil Code of the Russian Federation is carried out. The author raises a question about the meaning of «authorization of transaction» concept and comes up with a thesis about possibility to understand reasonable time not only as a time of the performance of civil obligations, but also as a time for declaration of intent.
Forecasting plays an increasingly important role in the scientific study of European Union politics and in political science in general. This is because forecasts are not only indispensable for (political) actors who need to form expectations about future events, but can also be used to judge the validity of (competing) theoretical models. While the debate about whether political science should engage in forecasting is largely over, many questions about how this should be done in everyday research are still open. One of these is how forecasts of political time series can be derived from theoretical models. Using a practical example from European Union research, we start to address this question. We first show how forecasts of political time series can be derived from both theoretical and atheoretical models. Subsequently, we use an atheoretical time series (ARMA) imputation approach to demonstrate how they can be fruitfully integrated in order to overcome some of the limitations to making forecasts of political time series which are based on theoretical models.
Abstract. Previous analyses of the strong secular growth in personnel supply employment have focused primarily on the relative impacts of demand and supply factors. This industry's dramatic growth has tended to mask its high degree of volatility, which may be more useful in understanding employers' motivations for hiring temporary employees. This article examines alternative explanations for the volatility of employment in the temporary supply industry from 1972 to 2000. Using a seemingly unrelated time‐series estimator, we compare the volatility of temporary employment to that of regular full‐time employment. We find that quarterly changes in temporary employment are more sensitive to the business cycle than regular full‐time employment are and argue that temporary employment is likely to have a number of disadvantages as a reemployment strategy during a recession, since temporary employment typically declines during that time. Additionally, employment growth during this period is better explained by employers' efforts to achieve numerical rather than wage flexibility.
We generalize the standard lattice approach of Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein (1976) from a fixed sum to a random sum in a subordinated process framework to accommodate pricing of derivatives with random-sum characteristics. The asset price change now is determined by two independent Bernoulli trials on information arrival/non-arrival and price up/down, respectively. The subordination leads to a nonstationary trinomial tree in calendar-time, while a time change to information-time restores the simpler binomial tree that now grows with the intensity of information arrival irrespective of the passage of calendar-time. We apply the model to price the CBOT catastrophe futures call spreads as a binomial sum of binomial prices, which illuminates the information conveyed by the randomness of catastrophe arrival. Numerical results demonstrate that the standard binomial formula that ignores random claim arrival produces largest undervaluation error for out-of-money short-maturity options when a small number of significant catastrophes may strike during the option's maturity.
AbstractThis article concerns the effect of stochastic time delays in the operation of components upon system reliability for isolated impulse systems, for which component delays have hitherto been treated as deterministic. These are systems, such as automatic protective devices, which remain idle for most of their lives but which are required to respond with the utmost speed to input signals arising at arbitrary isolated time instants. System failure can arise from components failing to operate, or from being too slow to operate so that the systems operation is too slow to meet requirements. During operation components are usually subjected to greater stresses than during idling, so that it is assumed that components are subjected to increased failure tendencies during the time it takes them to perform their functions. The effect of stochastic time delays on the evaluation of systems reliability is considered, and a hierarchy of complexity associated with the physical nature of the delays in series and redundant configurations is exposed. Some simple exponential illustrations are presented.
Community organizing is one of the most legitimate forms of collective action in the United States today, fostering the participation of urban working classes that are structurally excluded from the political field. And yet, the conditions of possibility of such socially unlikely participation have received little scholarly attention. Based on an ethnographic and sociohistorical inquiry conducted in Chicago, the historic birthplace of that repertoire of collective action, my goal in this dissertation is to address this gap by focusing on the group of professionals, called community organizers, who make popular and lay political participation and representation possible. The central paradox here is that, contrary to what the literature in political sociology usually argues, these professionals refuse to speak on behalf of the mobilized community, actively stepping back behind the spokespeople they select and train. What does the study of this role say about the links between processes of institutionalization, professionalization and politicization/depoliticization? In order to make sense of the original dissociation between the professional's role and that of the spokesperson and understand how it affects the division of political work, the dissertation shows how the role of "leader-maker" has emerged, taken shape and been legitimized from the 1970s onwards, at the junction of, on the one hand, the reform-minded community organization tradition dating back to the early 20th century, and on the other, the legacy of the contentious politics of the 1960s and 1970s. I then shift the focus to what this hybrid role, where claims of professional expertise and mobilization and politicization cannot be disentangled, actually looks like in terms of daily practices developing popular representation. These practices occur within a space of political intermediation broadly shaped by networks of interdependencies with other competing sectors (the political and philanthropic fields, the "space of social movement") which are beyond the lay spokespeople's reach. By looking at organizers' individual trajectories, however – from their social dispositions towards commitment to the actual incorporation of this pragmatic practical sense and the ways individuals can stay in the field or exit the role towards other career opportunities – the research shows that becoming an organizer can confirm or initiate dynamics of individual politicization. ; Alors que le community organizing constitue aujourd'hui l'une des formes d'action collective les plus légitimes aux États-Unis, encourageant la participation de classes populaires urbaines que tout exclut du champ politique, les conditions de possibilité de cette participation improbable restent peu étudiées. À partir d'une enquête ethnographique et sociohistorique menée à Chicago, berceau historique de ce répertoire d'action, cette thèse se penche sur le groupe de professionnel·le·s, les community organizers, qui font exister une participation et une représentation politiques profanes. Pourtant, contrairement aux arguments classiques de la sociologie politique, ces professionnel·le·s refusent de parler au nom du groupe mobilisé, la community, se mettant activement en retrait derrière des porte-parole populaires qu'ils et elles sélectionnent et forment. Que dit l'étude de ce rôle des liens entre institutionnalisation, professionnalisation et politisation/dépolitisation ? Pour saisir les ressorts de cette dissociation originale entre professionnel·le et porte-parole et ses effets sur la division du travail politique, on montre comment ce rôle de « faiseur de représentants » émerge, se consolide et se légitime à partir des années 1970, à la frontière entre, d'une part, la tradition d'intervention sociale héritée des initiatives réformatrices des premières décennies du XXe siècle, et d'autre part les pratiques contestataires héritées des mouvements sociaux des années 1960 et 1970. La thèse expose ensuite comment ce rôle hybride, où revendication d'expertise professionnelle et travail de mobilisation et de politisation sont indissociables, se manifeste dans des pratiques quotidiennes de mise en représentation populaire. Celles-ci s'inscrivent dans un espace d'intermédiation largement déterminé par des relations d'interdépendance avec d'autres espaces et champs concurrents (champs politique et philanthropique, « espace des mouvements sociaux ») qui échappent aux porte-parole profanes. Enfin, en déplaçant la focale vers les trajectoires des community organizers, de leurs dispositions à l'engagement aux modalités de maintien dans le rôle ou de reconversion dans d'autres espaces professionnels en passant par l'incorporation en acte de ce sens pratique militant pragmatique, on voit néanmoins que devenir community organizer peut confirmer ou enclencher des dynamiques de politisation individuelle.
Community organizing is one of the most legitimate forms of collective action in the United States today, fostering the participation of urban working classes that are structurally excluded from the political field. And yet, the conditions of possibility of such socially unlikely participation have received little scholarly attention. Based on an ethnographic and sociohistorical inquiry conducted in Chicago, the historic birthplace of that repertoire of collective action, my goal in this dissertation is to address this gap by focusing on the group of professionals, called community organizers, who make popular and lay political participation and representation possible. The central paradox here is that, contrary to what the literature in political sociology usually argues, these professionals refuse to speak on behalf of the mobilized community, actively stepping back behind the spokespeople they select and train. What does the study of this role say about the links between processes of institutionalization, professionalization and politicization/depoliticization? In order to make sense of the original dissociation between the professional's role and that of the spokesperson and understand how it affects the division of political work, the dissertation shows how the role of "leader-maker" has emerged, taken shape and been legitimized from the 1970s onwards, at the junction of, on the one hand, the reform-minded community organization tradition dating back to the early 20th century, and on the other, the legacy of the contentious politics of the 1960s and 1970s. I then shift the focus to what this hybrid role, where claims of professional expertise and mobilization and politicization cannot be disentangled, actually looks like in terms of daily practices developing popular representation. These practices occur within a space of political intermediation broadly shaped by networks of interdependencies with other competing sectors (the political and philanthropic fields, the "space of social movement") which are beyond the lay spokespeople's reach. By looking at organizers' individual trajectories, however – from their social dispositions towards commitment to the actual incorporation of this pragmatic practical sense and the ways individuals can stay in the field or exit the role towards other career opportunities – the research shows that becoming an organizer can confirm or initiate dynamics of individual politicization. ; Alors que le community organizing constitue aujourd'hui l'une des formes d'action collective les plus légitimes aux États-Unis, encourageant la participation de classes populaires urbaines que tout exclut du champ politique, les conditions de possibilité de cette participation improbable restent peu étudiées. À partir d'une enquête ethnographique et sociohistorique menée à Chicago, berceau historique de ce répertoire d'action, cette thèse se penche sur le groupe de professionnel·le·s, les community organizers, qui font exister une participation et une représentation politiques profanes. Pourtant, contrairement aux arguments classiques de la sociologie politique, ces professionnel·le·s refusent de parler au nom du groupe mobilisé, la community, se mettant activement en retrait derrière des porte-parole populaires qu'ils et elles sélectionnent et forment. Que dit l'étude de ce rôle des liens entre institutionnalisation, professionnalisation et politisation/dépolitisation ? Pour saisir les ressorts de cette dissociation originale entre professionnel·le et porte-parole et ses effets sur la division du travail politique, on montre comment ce rôle de « faiseur de représentants » émerge, se consolide et se légitime à partir des années 1970, à la frontière entre, d'une part, la tradition d'intervention sociale héritée des initiatives réformatrices des premières décennies du XXe siècle, et d'autre part les pratiques contestataires héritées des mouvements sociaux des années 1960 et 1970. La thèse expose ensuite comment ce rôle hybride, où revendication d'expertise professionnelle et travail de mobilisation et de politisation sont indissociables, se manifeste dans des pratiques quotidiennes de mise en représentation populaire. Celles-ci s'inscrivent dans un espace d'intermédiation largement déterminé par des relations d'interdépendance avec d'autres espaces et champs concurrents (champs politique et philanthropique, « espace des mouvements sociaux ») qui échappent aux porte-parole profanes. Enfin, en déplaçant la focale vers les trajectoires des community organizers, de leurs dispositions à l'engagement aux modalités de maintien dans le rôle ou de reconversion dans d'autres espaces professionnels en passant par l'incorporation en acte de ce sens pratique militant pragmatique, on voit néanmoins que devenir community organizer peut confirmer ou enclencher des dynamiques de politisation individuelle.
Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 The Controversial Macroeconomic Outcomes of Fiscal Policy -- 1.2 Does the Euro Area Needs a Fiscal Union? -- 1.3 The Macroeconomic Outcomes of Fiscal Policy in High Debt Euro Area Countries -- 1.4 Spillovers of German Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area -- References -- 2 The Common Framework for National Fiscal Policies and the Euro Area Fiscal Union -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 The Common European Framework for National Fiscal Policies -- 2.2.1 Preventive Arm -- 2.2.2 Corrective Arm -- 2.3 Towards a Euro-Area Budget for the Fiscal Union? -- 2.3.1 Some Comparison with Existing Federal States -- 2.3.2 The Euro-Area Budget Architecture: Some Proposals From the Literature -- 2.3.3 Other Proposals for Fiscal Union: Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers -- 2.4 The Effects of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area. Selected Literature -- 2.5 Measuring Fiscal Policy at the Euro Area Level -- 2.5.1 The Response of Variables to a Euro-Area Government Spending Shock -- 2.5.2 The Response of Variables to a Euro-Area Government Investments Shock -- 2.6 An Alternative Identification Strategy of Government Spending Shocks -- 2.6.1 Recovering Government Spending Shocks by Sign Restrictions -- 2.6.2 Government Investment Shocks -- 2.7 The Effects of Government Spending Shocks Under an Accommodative Monetary Policy -- 2.8 Fiscal Multipliers: Results -- 2.9 Conclusions -- References -- 3 The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks: A Review of the Literature -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Alternative Methodologies for the Identification of Fiscal Shocks -- 3.3 Structural VARs and Identification of Fiscal Shocks -- 3.4 Alternative Definitions of Fiscal Multipliers -- 3.5 The Dynamics Effects of Fiscal Shocks in the US Economy -- 3.6 The Estimated Effects of Fiscal Shocks in the European Economy
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This book draws on Professor Arend Lijphart?s lifetime experience of research and publication in democracy and comparative politics and collects together for the first time his most significant and influential work.
PurposeDespite being a flexible tool that can address several macroeconomic issues, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models have been rarely used to analyse the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy until the post-financial crisis, leaving a gap in the analysis of how government consumption affects the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. This motivates this paper to analyse how government consumption affects the dynamics of a small open economy, once the former is included in a non-separable form to the utility function. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this issue has not been addressed by the literature, and the authors aim to do so in this paper.Design/methodology/approachA standard New Keynesian model for a small open economy is used to allow for the presence of non-separable government consumption in the utility function. The model is supported by panel regressions.FindingsThe inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The degree of openness dampens the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it. Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.Originality/valueThe effect of government consumption on the transmission mechanism of MP has not been addressed in the literature. This paper contributes to the literature by addressing this issue.Highlights:• The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.• The degree of openness alleviates the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it.• Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model.
In general, a language is a tool for communication that every people use, and as we know there are many languages especially in Indonesia. It is a regional or local language that people use for their daily activities with their family or with their local people, Indonesian language is an official language that people use on, the daily activities in formal places or with work partners. Indonesia's government has already made some regular or policy to manage language use also the regulation about English as a foreign language. But the use of the English language is not optimal especially in the world of education even though English has become the lingua franca in the world. For such a stance, the writer has no goal to blame any culture nor suggests that English culture is not meant to be learned. The writer concerns more with the idea that in learning English, the culture of learners is more urgent than English culture since the use of English is around peer communication. The awareness of English as an International language and as a language of science is responded with mandatory English teaching in Junior High school to the varsity level. However, with the status as a foreign language, English is occasionally used outside the classroom. Even during the class, instead of speaking English, the Indonesian students tend to speak in Bahasa Indonesia (Indonesian Language) or their local language. For that, the writer gives some proposed solutions after analyzing some literature, The writer used the Systematic Literature Review framework from (Okoli, 2015) to perform this review of the literature
