Dynamic demographic analysis
In: The Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis volume39
Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- References -- Part I Analyzing Dynamic Fertility -- 2 Amplified Changes: An Analysis of Four DynamicFertility Models -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Fertility Models -- 2.3 Ryder's Approximation -- 2.4 Moving Targets -- 2.5 Period Shifts -- 2.6 Cohort Shifts -- 2.7 An Illustrative Application to the United States -- 2.8 Discussion -- Appendix: Tempo Adjustment for the Cohort-Shift Model -- References -- Part II Dynamic Mortality and Morbidity -- 3 Am I Halfway? Life Lived=Expected Life -- 3.1 Methods and Data -- 3.1.1 Halfway-Age -- 3.1.2 Mortality Models -- 3.1.3 Empirical Time Trends -- 3.1.4 Forecasting Cohort Halfway-Age -- 3.2 Results -- 3.3 Discussion -- Appendix: The Forecasting "Gap Method" -- References -- 4 Revisiting Life Expectancy Rankings in Countries that Have Experienced Fast Mortality Decline -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Data and Methods -- 4.3 Results -- 4.3.1 France vs. Sweden -- 4.3.2 Countries of the HMD -- 4.4 Discussion -- 4.4.1 The Momentum of Cohort Mortality Disadvantage -- 4.5 Conclusion -- References -- 5 Changing Mortality Patterns and Their Predictability: The Case of the United States -- 5.1 Introduction: Challenges in Mortality Forecasting -- 5.2 Mortality Development in the United States -- 5.2.1 Life Expectancy at Birth -- 5.2.2 Death Rates and Change of Mortality -- 5.2.3 Driving Factors -- 5.2.3.1 Cigarette Smoking -- 5.2.3.2 Obesity -- 5.2.3.3 High Sodium Intake -- 5.3 Mortality Forecasting Approaches -- 5.3.1 Common Approaches -- 5.3.2 Our Model -- 5.4 Forecasting Mortality -- 5.4.1 Prospective Forecasts -- 5.4.2 Validating Forecasts -- 5.5 Summary and Concluding Remarks -- References -- 6 Modeling the Dynamics of an HIV Epidemic -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Background -- 6.2.1 Dynamics of HIV Incidence -- 6.2.2 Tanzania -- 6.3 Methods -- 6.3.1 Data -- 6.3.2 Model.