Dynamic demographic analysis

In: The Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis volume39

Abstract

Intro -- Preface -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- References -- Part I Analyzing Dynamic Fertility -- 2 Amplified Changes: An Analysis of Four DynamicFertility Models -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Fertility Models -- 2.3 Ryder's Approximation -- 2.4 Moving Targets -- 2.5 Period Shifts -- 2.6 Cohort Shifts -- 2.7 An Illustrative Application to the United States -- 2.8 Discussion -- Appendix: Tempo Adjustment for the Cohort-Shift Model -- References -- Part II Dynamic Mortality and Morbidity -- 3 Am I Halfway? Life Lived=Expected Life -- 3.1 Methods and Data -- 3.1.1 Halfway-Age -- 3.1.2 Mortality Models -- 3.1.3 Empirical Time Trends -- 3.1.4 Forecasting Cohort Halfway-Age -- 3.2 Results -- 3.3 Discussion -- Appendix: The Forecasting "Gap Method" -- References -- 4 Revisiting Life Expectancy Rankings in Countries that Have Experienced Fast Mortality Decline -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Data and Methods -- 4.3 Results -- 4.3.1 France vs. Sweden -- 4.3.2 Countries of the HMD -- 4.4 Discussion -- 4.4.1 The Momentum of Cohort Mortality Disadvantage -- 4.5 Conclusion -- References -- 5 Changing Mortality Patterns and Their Predictability: The Case of the United States -- 5.1 Introduction: Challenges in Mortality Forecasting -- 5.2 Mortality Development in the United States -- 5.2.1 Life Expectancy at Birth -- 5.2.2 Death Rates and Change of Mortality -- 5.2.3 Driving Factors -- 5.2.3.1 Cigarette Smoking -- 5.2.3.2 Obesity -- 5.2.3.3 High Sodium Intake -- 5.3 Mortality Forecasting Approaches -- 5.3.1 Common Approaches -- 5.3.2 Our Model -- 5.4 Forecasting Mortality -- 5.4.1 Prospective Forecasts -- 5.4.2 Validating Forecasts -- 5.5 Summary and Concluding Remarks -- References -- 6 Modeling the Dynamics of an HIV Epidemic -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Background -- 6.2.1 Dynamics of HIV Incidence -- 6.2.2 Tanzania -- 6.3 Methods -- 6.3.1 Data -- 6.3.2 Model.

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Buch(elektronisch)#12016

Dynamic Demographic Analysis

In: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis 39

Schoen, Robert

Schoen, Robert

Abstract

This volume presents state of the art analyses from scholars dealing with a range of demographic topics of current concern, including longevity, mortality and morbidity, migration, and how population composition impacts intergenerational transfer schemes. New approaches are applied to such issues as measuring changes in cohort survivorship in low mortality populations, patterns of mortality improvement at older ages, and the consequences of heterogeneity in the susceptibility to death. Studies examine models of the current status of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, advance present methods for estimating population change in small areas, and strive to disentangle age, period, and cohort effects. In sum, the book addresses key contemporary issues in measuring and modeling dynamic populations, and advances the frontier of dynamic demography

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