Diese Arbeit bietet eine solide theoretische Grundlage zu Philanthropie und religiös motivierten Spendenaktivitäten und deren Einfluss auf Wohltätigkeitstrends, Entwicklungszusammenarbeit und einer auf dem Gedanken der sozialen Gerechtigkeit beruhenden Philanthropie. Untersucht werden dafür die Strukturen religiös motivierte Spenden, für die in der islamischen Tradition die Begriffe "zakat", "Waqf" oder im Plural auch "awqaf-" oder "Sadaqa" verwendet werden, der christliche Begriff dafür lautet "tithes" oder "ushour". Aufbauend auf diesem theoretischen Rahmenwerk analysiert die qualitative und quantitative Feldstudie auf nationaler Ebene, wie die ägyptische Öffentlichkeit Philanthropie, soziale Gerechtigkeit, Menschenrechte, Spenden, Freiwilligenarbeit und andere Konzepte des zivilgesellschaftlichen Engagements wahrnimmt. Um eine umfassende und repräsentative Datengrundlage zu erhalten, wurden 2000 Haushalte, 200 zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen erfasst, sowie Spender, Empfänger, religiöse Wohltäter und andere Akteure interviewt. Die so gewonnen Erkenntnisse lassen aussagekräftige Aufschlüsse über philanthropische Trends zu. Erstmals wird so auch eine finanzielle Einschätzung und Bewertung der Aktivitäten im lokalen Wohltätigkeitsbereich möglich, die sich auf mehr als eine Billion US-Dollar beziffern lassen. Die Erhebung weist nach, dass gemessen an den Pro-Kopf-Aufwendungen die privaten Spendenaktivitäten weitaus wichtiger sind als auswärtige wirtschaftliche Hilfe für Ägypten. Das wiederum lässt Rückschlüsse zu, welche Bedeutung lokale Wohltätigkeit erlangen kann, wenn sie richtig gesteuert wird und nicht wie bislang oft im Teufelskreis von ad-hoc-Spenden oder Hilfen von Privatperson an Privatperson gefangen ist. Die Studie stellt außerdem eine Verbindung her zwischen lokalen Wohltätigkeits-Mechanismen, die meist auf religiösen und kulturellen Werten beruhen, und modernen Strukturen, wie etwa Gemeinde-Stiftungen oder Gemeinde-"waqf", innerhalb derer die Spenden eine nachhaltige Veränderung bewirken können. Daher bietet diese Arbeit also eine umfassende wissenschaftliche Grundlage, die nicht nur ein besseres Verständnis, sondern auch den nachhaltiger Aus- und Aufbau lokaler Wohltätigkeitsstrukturen in Ägypten ermöglicht. Zentral ist dabei vor allem die Rolle lokaler, individueller Spenden, die beispielsweise für Stiftungen auf der Gemeindeebene eingesetzt, wesentlich zu einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung beitragen könnten – und das nicht nur in Ägypten, sondern in der gesamten arabischen Region. Als konkretes Ergebnis dieser Arbeit, wurde ein innovatives Modell entwickelt, dass neben den wissenschaftlichen Daten das Konzept der "waqf" berücksichtigt. Der Wissenschaftlerin und einem engagierten Vorstand ist es auf dieser Grundlage gelungen, die Waqfeyat al Maadi Community Foundation (WMCF) zu gründen, die nicht nur ein Modell für eine Bürgerstiftung ist, sondern auch das tradierte Konzept der "waqf" als praktikable und verbürgte Wohlstätigkeitsstruktur sinnvoll weiterentwickelt. ; This work provides a solid theoretical base on philanthropy, religious giving (Islamic zakat, 'ushour, Waqf -plural: awqaf-, Sadaqa and Christian tithes or 'ushour), and their implications on giving trends, development work, social justice philanthropy. The field study (quantitative and qualitative) that supports the theoretical framework reflects at a national level the Egyptian public's perceptions on philanthropy, social justice, human rights, giving and volunteering and other concepts that determine the peoples' civic engagement. The statistics cover 2000 households, 200 Civil Society Organizations distributed all over Egypt and interviews donors, recipients, religious people and other stakeholders. The numbers reflect philanthropic trends and for the first time provide a monetary estimate of local philanthropy of over USD 1 Billion annually. The survey proves that the per capita share of philanthropy outweighs the per capita share of foreign economic assistance to Egypt, which implies the significance of local giving if properly channeled, and not as it is actually consumed in the vicious circle of ad-hoc, person to person charity. In addition, the study relates local giving mechanisms derived from religion and culture to modern actual structures, like community foundations or community waqf that could bring about sustainable change in the communities. In sum, the work provides a comprehensive scientific base to help understand- and build on local philanthropy in Egypt. It explores the role that local individual giving could play in achieving sustainable development and building a new wave of community foundations not only in Egypt but in the Arab region at large. As a tangible result of this thesis, an innovative model that revives the concept of waqf and builds on the study's results was created by the researcher and a dedicated board of trustees who succeeded in establishing Waqfeyat al Maadi Community Foundation (WMCF) that not only introduces the community foundation model to Egypt, but revives and modernizes the waqf as a practical authentic philanthropic structure.
The study of the military veterans' experience in higher education has coincided with the history of the GI Bill® and the various iterations of the benefits of this program, beginning with the original version following WWII. With the latest version, the Post 9/11 GI Bill®, institutions of higher education have experienced the highest enrollment numbers of veterans since the conclusion of the Vietnam Conflict. Institutions have historically been reactive in support of new waves of veterans entering higher education. This study sought to gain the perspective of veterans, as to how the institutions have been serving veterans by creating a veteran friendly campus through the admission, enrollment, and veterans services processes. The study also sought to gather the veterans' perspective related to how well faculty and staff understand the military experience, and how well veterans have been integrated into the classroom environment and into higher education in general. In addition, the study sought to measure the perspective of veterans with disabilities and their specific experience in higher education. A survey of the veteran experience was conducted in 2-year and 4-year institutions in a western state. Results indicated that although improvements have been made in relation to veterans in this study, there are still areas that need addressing in order to improve the veteran experience in overall. The veteran, the institution, and the community in general can benefit immensely as veterans use their GI Bill® benefit to pursue higher education, and then put that education to work upon graduation. It is incumbent on institutions of higher education to ensure that a veteran friendly process is in place, in order to attract and retain veterans through graduation. ; MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 2 Acknowledgements I would like to thank my parents, Robert E. and Janice D. Czech, for their sound example, for instilling proper values, and for exemplifying good character. Without them and who they were, I would not be where I am or who I am today. I would also like to express appreciation to my family and friends for their unwavering support to me during the process of completing my graduate degree. Without their support I do not believe I would have endured my many struggles to meet this goal. My appreciation to Dr. Peggy Saunders for her guidance throughout this process, and to my many professors for their patience and understanding throughout each semester. Their wisdom and intuition allowed me to flourish as a non-traditional student, in an environment that seemed foreign. I would like to acknowledge the foundation of hard work, leadership, and service that I learned during my 22 years in the United States Anny. It was not always easy, but the lessons learned have helped me to endure this graduate degree process. Finally, thanks to my graduate committee chair Dr. Natalie Williams. She was my guide, advisor, and champion during this final project. Without her outstanding patience, understanding and depth of knowledge I would have never made it to my goal. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 3 Table of Contents NATURE OF THE PROBLEM . 7 Literature Review . 9 Introduction . 9 Historical Foundations . 10 WWII Era GI Bill® (Original) . 10 Korean Era GI Bill® . 11 Vietnam Era GI Bill® . 12 Post-Vietnam Era Veterans Education Assistance Program (VEAP) . 12 Montgomery GI Bill® and Reserve Programs . 13 Post 9/11 GI Bill® (Current) . 13 GI Bill® Use (as of Fiscal Year 2013) . 14 Effects of the Post 9/11 GI Bill® on Higher Education . 15 Veterans with combat related disability issues . 19 Accommodating veterans with disabilities on campus . 20 Veterans' with disabilities . 25 Reintegration into Society . 28 Higher education: Weathering the perfect storm . 30 Summary . 32 PURPOSE . 34 METHOD . 36 Participants . 37 MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 4 Instruments . 38 Procedure . 3 8 Data Analysis . 41 RESULTS . 43 Demographic Data . 43 Overall Experience in Higher Education . 44 Website Navigation . 44 Admissions . 45 Enrollment Services . 46 Veterans Services Office . 47 Faculty Awareness, Classroom Environment, and Campus Life . 48 Service-connected Disability . 51 DISCUSSION . 53 Implications of Results . 55 Limitations . 61 Future Research . 62 Summary . 63 REFERENCES . 65 APPENDICES . 69 Appendix A: Veterans Survey . 70 Appendix B: IRB Approval . ; . 74 Appendix C: Survey Results Spreadsheet. . 76 MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 5 List of Tables Table I. Respondents by branch and years of service, and by branch and gender . 37 Table 2. Summary of Survey Responses by Section, with Totals by Section and Response Type . 52 MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 6 Abstract The study of the military veterans' experience in higher education has coincided with the history of the GI Bill® and the various iterations of the benefits of this program, beginning with the original version following WWII. With the latest version, the Post 9/11 GI Bill®, institutions of higher education have experienced the highest enrollment numbers of veterans since the conclusion of the Vietnam Conflict. Institutions have historically been reactive in support of new waves of veterans entering higher education. This study sought to gain the perspective of veterans, as to how the institutions have been serving veterans by creating a veteran friendly campus through the admission, enrollment, and veterans services processes. The study also sought to gather the veterans' perspective related to how well faculty and staff understand the military experience, and how well veterans have been integrated into the classroom environment and into higher education in general. In addition, the study sought to measure the perspective of veterans with disabilities and their specific experience in higher education. A survey of the veteran experience was conducted in 2-year and 4-year institutions in a western state. Results indicated that although improvements have been made in relation to veterans in this study, there are still areas that need addressing in order to improve the veteran experience in overall. The veteran, the institution, and the community in general can benefit immensely as veterans use their GI Bill® benefit to pursue higher education, and then put that education to work upon graduation. It is incumbent on institutions of higher education to ensure that a veteran friendly process is in place, in order to attract and retain veterans through graduation. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM With the passing of the Post 9/11 Veterans Educational Assistance Act (2008), also known as the Post 9/11 GI Bill®, colleges and universities are seeing higher enrollment by military veterans than they have since the conclusion of the Vietnam Conflict (Cook & Kim, 2009; Rumann & Hamrick, 2009), and the intricacies and implementation of this new GI Bill® has caused confusion and frustration for both the veterans and university staff. After WWII, the Servicemen's Readjustment Act of 1944 (or GI Bill®) granted unprecedented educational and economic benefits to veterans. Other GI Bill® programs and adjustments have been made over the years, but the Post 9/11 version was said to be the most generous since the WWII era GI Bill® (Radford, 2009). 7 With the most recent changes to the GI Bill®, veteran presence was expected to grow on campuses across the country and therefore schools have had to adjust to meet the new demand (Cook & Kim, 2009; Rumann & Hamrick, 2009). Many of the veterans, active military and active military reservists (92%) currently enrolled in university indicated that education should play a role in post-service transition (Zoli, Maury, & Fay, 2015). Many veterans currently enrolled in higher education were exposed to direct and indirect conflict and suffer from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI), and other physical and psychological challenges. Church (2009) said that "returning veterans will have a wide range of medical diagnoses and related health problems that will have a temporary or chronic impact on their living, working, learning, MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE and relationship functions" (pg. 44). These issues make it difficult for veterans to adjust to a higher education setting, and cause tangible problems for their academic progress. 8 Although there are many positive qualities that veterans bring to an institution of higher education, many also bring with them these battle related issues. These issues make it difficult for veterans to adjust to this setting. The American Council on Education (ACE) found that veterans reported problems meeting academic expectations, while managing service connected injuries, including PTSD and TBI (Steele, Salcedo, and Coley, 2010). Not all veterans will openly disclose the visible and invisible injuries they have, so it is incumbent on colleges and universities to develop welcoming programs that meet these challenges (Church, 2009). This lack of self-disclosure could lead veterans to underutilize traditional campus disability services and therefore not receive the accommodations that may make their experience more manageable. Unfortunately, most post-secondary schools are ill prepared to meet the needs of these Veterans, creating lost opportunities for both the Veteran and the institution. Schools that are slow in meeting the challenges that the veterans present, find they are reacting rather than being proactive in meeting veteran needs. If institutions of higher education do not work to understand this veteran population, then it is likely to lead to an unsuccessful experience for the veteran and the institution (Brown & Gross, 2011). There are areas where higher education is generally meeting the needs of veterans, like including veteran issues in strategic planning, offering specific programs and services for veterans, recognizing prior military experience with college credit, assisting veterans with finding counseling services, providing financial accommodations, and providing counseling on veterans' educational benefits. But there are many areas that still show MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE room for improvement including assisting veterans' transition to college, developing faculty and staff awareness of veteran specific issues, meeting the needs of veterans with military related disabilities, assisting re-enrolling veterans, and providing peer to peer experiences for veterans (Cook & Kim, 2009). Literature Review Introduction This literature review will first establish some historical background relating to the GI Bill®, including changes that have taken place since its establishment following WWII. It will highlight the benefits of each version, especially the original version and the most recent version known as the Post 9/11 GI Bill®, and demonstrate the problems caused by the large influx of new veterans in higher education. Next, it will highlight some of the issues veterans have in a higher education setting related to their combat related disabilities and experiences, and the lack of preparation and forethought by colleges and universities related to these new veterans. Historical IFoundation~1office1] 9 The relationship of higher education and the military dates back to the 1862 Morrill Act, which established military training programs at land-grant institutions (Rumann & Hamrick, 2009, 2010). Subsequently, just prior to WWI, Congress passed the 1916 National Defense Act (NDA) which provided colleges a leading role in training soldiers. The NDA also established the three components of the military: the active duty military component, the military reserve component, and the state National Guard component. In addition, it created the Reserve Officers' Training Corps (ROTC) that standardized what had been solely independent military training programs at colleges and MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 10 universities. These were the fotmdations of the relationship between the military and higher education. Even though the NDA was established prior to WWI, many veterans were unsatisfied with the benefits offered to them, which resulted in significant economic and social unrest. This dissatisfaction prompted the writing of Servicemen's Readjustment Act of 1944 (Rumann & Hamrick, 2009). WWII Era GI Bill(RJ (Original). With the large numbers of military veterans returning home after WWII the Servicemen's Readjustment Act of 1944 (i.e., GI Bill®) granted unprecedented educational and economic benefits to these veterans. After much strnggle, this act was passed by congress and signed into law by President Roosevelt on June 22, 1944 (Rumann & Hamrick, 2009). When signing the GI Bill®, President Roosevelt said "It gives emphatic notice to the men and women in our armed forces that the American people do not intend to let them down" (Department of Veterans Affairs, 2013, para. 24). This trnly generous WWII era GI Bill® provided many financial and educational benefits to veterans and their families. Additionally benefits included living stipends, Veterans were given loan guarantees for homes, farms and businesses (e.g., nearly 2.4 million loans from 1944 to 1952), as well as unemployment pay and employment assistance (Department of Veterans Affairs, 2013). By the time the original GI Bill® had ended in 1956, 7.8 million of the nearly 16 million WWII veterans had used education benefits to some extent. In the peak year of 1947, veterans made up 49% of all college admissions. One interesting fact is that although there was an unemployment benefit available, less than 20% of the funds set aside for this benefit was used by the veterans. The total cost of this original version of MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE the GI Bill® was $14.5 Billion (Department of Veterans Affairs, 2013; Military.com, 2006). 11 Many names have been given to this generation of veterans that served in WWII, such as the Greatest Generation, the G .I. Generation, and the Civic Generation. Regardless of the label, the impact of this generation due in large part to the GI Bill® education benefits, is immeasurable and can be felt to the present. In her book, Mettler (2005) stated that ''.just as the G.I. Bill transformed the lives of veterans who used it, they in tum helped change America" (p. 11 ). This GI Bill® opened up educational opportunities to those other than the privileged in America. Higher education that had previously been reserved for mainly white, native-born, Protestant Americans prior to WWII, was now a possibility for those that were Jewish, Catholic, African American, immigrants, and the working class. This changed the landscape of America forever (Mettler, 2005). Korean Era GI Bill.® The Veterans Readjustment Assistance Act of 1952, or Korean Conflict GI Bill®, was instituted to carry on the tradition of taking care of those who served and fought for their country. It was approved by President Truman on July 16, 1952. It was available for use by veterans who served between June 27, 1950 and Febrnary 1, 1955. Although this GI Bill® still provided education benefits and living stipends, as well has loan guarantees, it left the employment assistance up to the individual states. By the time this program ended in 1955, some 43% of the over 5.5 million veterans of the Korean Conflict had used their education benefits to some extent. Total cost to the country was $4.5 Billion and over 1.5 million loans were guaranteed, meaning the MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE government guaranteed a portion of the loan to the lien holder in case of default (Department of Veterans Affairs, 2013; Military.com, 2006). Vietnam Era GI Bill.® 12 The Veterans Readjustment Act of 1966, or Vietnam Era GI Bill®, was signed by President Johnson on March 3, 1966. It retroactively covered post Korean Conflict veterans who served after February 1, 1955 and continued for veterans who served until May 7, 1975. It again provided education benefits, for the first time including active duty military members, and again loan guarantees. Between 1966 and 1989, 6 million Vietnam veterans, 1.4 million Post-Korean veterans, and 7 51,000 active duty military used this education benefit to some extent. More than $42 Billion was spent on this version of the GI Bill®, and 4.5 million loans were guaranteed (Military.com, 2006). Post-Vietnam Era Veterans Education Assistance Program (VEAP). VEAP was a transitional program that bridged the gap between the Vietnam Era GI Bill®, and the Montgomery GI Bill®. Veterans, who entered after December 31, 1976 were eligible for education benefits under this version, but unlike the previous versions this one required a contribution by the military member and they had to choose to participate upon enlistment. The participant contributed through payroll deductions up to $2700 and the government then matched two dollars for every dollar contributed for a maximum of $5400. If one chose not to participate, then they had no money for education available at the end of their service. In addition to this money for education, the loan guarantees continued (Military.com, 2006). MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 13 Montgomery GI Bill® and Reserve Programs. The Montgomery GI Bill®, named for its sponsor Representative G.V. (Sonny) Montgomery, was established in 1984. Representative Montgomery was the chairman of the House Veterans' Affairs Committee and worked to support veterans. For the first time a version of the GI Bill® also included education benefits for those serving in the reserve components, although at a reduced benefit to their active duty counterparts. A reserve member had to enlist for 6 years, and after serving 6 months they could begin using their education benefit. It again required the active military member to contribute toward their future education, with matching funds by the military. An active duty veteran was eligible if they served after 30 June, 1985 and had to enlist for a minimum of 2 years. This program continues to be used by veterans up to this day, and overlaps with the new Post 9/11 GI Bill® (Department of Veterans Affairs, 2013; Military.com, 2006). Post 9/11 GI Bill® (Current) The newest of the GI Bill® education and benefit programs is called the Post 9/11 Veterans Educational Assistance Program (Post 9/11 GI Bill®). It was signed into law in July of2008, and became effective August 1, 2009. The Post 9/11 GI Bill® is the most comprehensive bill since the original in 1944. It provides benefits to service members, both active and reserve, who served at least 90 aggregate days of active military service after September 10, 2001. This means that an active duty member and a reserve component member serving the same amount of active duty time will receive the same benefit. The benefit can be used while still in the active military or reserve component and after discharge (Post 9/11 GI Bill Overview, n.d., Department of Veterans Affairs, 2014). MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 14 The Veterans Administration (VA) pays up to 100% of the student's tuition and fees for their education, based on the amount of service after the date of eligibility. The tuition and fees provided under this version of the GI Bill® are sent directly to the educational institution. This GI Bill® also includes up to $1000 per year for textbooks, a living stipend while emolled in school, based on cost ofliving which averages $1368 per month nationally, a one-time relocation payment of $500 for those relocating from a rural area to attend school, and for those still on active duty in the military the opportunity to transfer some or all of the benefit to their children (Post 9/11 GI Bill Overview, n.d.; Department of Veterans Affairs, 2014). The benefit is tiered depending on how much active duty service was rendered after September 10, 2001. For instance if the member served at least 36 months of active duty service, then they receive 100% of the benefits. For 30-36 months it is 90%, 24-30 months is 80%, 18-24 months is 70%, 12-18 months is 60%, 6-12 months is 50%, and 90 days to 6 months is 40% (Post 9/11 GI Bill Overview, n.d.). GI Bill® Use (as of Fiscal Year 2013). With the increased benefit of the Post 9/11 GI Bill® came a new wave of college bound military veterans and reserve members, and in some cases their family members to whom they have transferred benefits. The higher educational institutions around the country will need to prepare for this new wave, just as they had to prepare and react to the wave of veterans entering school following WWII. The Institute for Veterans and Military Families, at Syracuse University, conducted a multi-pronged study to gain a better understanding of social, economic, and wellness concerns of the newest generation of veterans. There are over 3.9 million MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 15 veterans identified as disabled by the Veterans Administration (VA). Of those, 43% were from the Gulf War era and beyond. Additionally, of the more than 8,500 respondents in that study 58% reported a service related disability. Of those in the survey that reported service-connected disability, 79% said that the disability created obstacles for them when they transitioned to civilian life. In fact, 12% indicated the disability hindered starting higher education, and 28% said the disability created obstacles in completing their higher education. These same veterans indicated that of the many motivations to join the military, 53% said that educational benefits were a reason they joined, followed by a desire to serve their country at 52%. In the research 92% of respondents indicated that education should play a role in post-service transition. The response to this particular question indicated how overwhelmingly important education is to the most recent service members and veterans, and showed intent to further their education. A study of GI Bill® usage by veterans was published providing data through fiscal year 2013. The study indicated that in the Fiscal Year (FY) of2009 the Veterans Benefits Administration (VBA) reported just 34,393 students using the Post 9/11 GI Bill®, but in FY 2013 the total was up to 754,229 students. If all of the current GI Bill® benefit programs are included, there were 1,091,044 students (FY 2013) using benefits. Payments from the Post 9/11 GI Bill® in FY 2013, to students and colleges, was over $10 billion, with the total from all GI Bill® programs being over $12 billion (Department of Veterans Affairs, 2014). Effects of the Post 9/11 GI Bill® on Higher Education. Military veterans are likely to enroll or reenroll in higher education following military service. It is incumbent upon these institutions to be prepared, in order to make MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 16 the veterans' transition easier (Rumann and Hamrick, 2009). This is especially the case with the advent of the generous benefits of the Post-9/11 GI Bill®. The researchers further pointed out that because of generational and societal perspectives, many current administrators and faculty have most likely not experienced military service. This has caused issues with how faculty and staff at institutions relate to veterans. Rumann and Hamrick (2009) suggested that building relationships with outside veteran organizations could bridge the gap that may exist. In addition, they suggested that campus administrations could provide opportunities for students, staff, and faculty to better understand aspects of military service, complimenting a broader focus on diversity on campuses. In their more recent study, Rumann and Hamrick (2010) focused on a small group of National Guard and reserve veterans who had returned from wartime deployments to re-enroll in school. The veterans experienced things such as lingering high stress levels related to their deployments, a maturity gap that had developed between them and traditional undergraduate students, personal relationship issues, and identity related issues. Cook and Kim (2009) took a broader look at easing the transition of service members on campus. Their study involved surveys returned by 723 institutions across the country. The study found that there was a varied approach to serving veterans, with no obvious pattern as to which programs and services were provided, or what entity on campus was responsible, and reported that nearly two thirds of colleges and universities that did offer veteran services have increased those services since September 11, 2001. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 17 In the same study, researchers came to the conclusion that there were areas where higher education was generally meeting the needs of military students, and areas where institutions could improve. Some examples of areas where institutions met veteran needs were including veteran issues in strategic planning, offering specific programs and services for veterans, recognizing prior military experience with college credit, assisting veterans with finding counseling services, providing financial accommodations, and providing counseling on veterans' educational benefits (Cook & Kim, 2009). Areas that needed improvement included helping veterans transition to a college environment, providing professional development to faculty and staff on veteran transition issues, training of staff on meeting the needs veterans with brain injuries and other military related disabilities, streamlining of administrative procedures for veterans enrolling or re-enrolling, and providing opportunities for veterans to connect with peers on campus. With the expected influx of students using the Post-9/11 GI Bill®, institutions need to address these areas of weakness when it comes to veteran services and programs. In their report, Brown and Gross (2011) stated that successful management of military students brings benefits to all involved: the student; the academic institution; and the community. Part ofthis management includes understanding the characteristics of veteran and active military students. Radford (2009) detailed many characteristics of veterans and military undergraduates. The study states that: Slightly more than 3 percent of all undergraduates enrolled during the 2007-08 academic year were veterans, and slightly more than 1 percent were military service members. Among these military undergraduates, about 75 percent were MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE veterans, 16 percent were military service members on active duty, and almost 9 percent were military service members in the reserves. (p. 6) 18 The researcher also detailed issues faced by military undergraduates who wished to attend college: Difficulty transitioning to life after military service; experiencing psychological and/or physical post-war trauma; readjusting to personal relationships; and adapting to a new lifestyle. Radford also highlights that veterans can face bureaucratic red tape from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) relating to their education benefits as well as from the college or university staff who were often not well versed in the details of those benefits. Many veterans face obstacles and challenges in using the Post-9/11 GI Bill® and transitioning to college (Steele, Salcedo, & Coley, 2010). Challenges noted included expectations different from their military experience, balancing academics and other responsibilities, relating to non-veteran students, managing service-connected injuries and disabilities. They also noted institutional efforts to adapt to the new GI Bill® benefits. Schools reported increased staff workloads of 50% to 200% related to the new influx of veteran students. The researchers (Steel, Salcedo, & Coley, 2010) noted some of the reasons behind this influx were, increases in total GI Bill® enrollment over previous years, lack oflmowledge in details of the new law, coordination with student accounts offices with respect to receipt of payments, the need to submit enrollment verification of each veteran student, and the need to assist veteran students in understanding their benefits. Institutions could more effectively serve veteran students according to the results ofa focus group study (Steel, Salcedo, & Coley, 2010). Institutions that encourage MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 19 veterans to self-identify early, ensure veteran program administrators are adequately trained, and that other staff and administration are trained on the new GI Bill®, tend to have more effective programs for veterans. The institutions should employ disability and mental health staff who understand veterans' issues, have consistent policies for college credit for military training, have veteran specific orientations and informational sessions, and encourage veteran student organizations on campus (Steel, Salcedo, & Coley, 2010). Veterans with Combat Related Disability Issues One challenge America faces as the more recent conflicts wind down, is that there will be more veterans with disabilities returning from military service, and these veterans will be seeking higher education. It will be important for staff and faculty of associated schools to be prepared to assist these veterans with disabilities in their transition (DiRarnio & Spires, 2009). The veterans that find it especially difficult to adjust to higher education are those with combat related disability issues, including hidden issues such as Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI). Survivability from combat injury has increased and therefore an increase in veterans with disabilities on campus is inevitable. In the most recent conflicts, nearly 85% of those receiving combat injuries are surviving due to advances in protective body annor, use of coagulants, and advances in the military medical evacuation system (Madaus, Miller II, & Vance, 2009). The Veterans Administration (VA) reported that in 1986 there were 2,225,289 military veterans with service-connected disabilities. By 2013 the number of veterans with service-connected disabilities had climbed to 3,743,259, mainly due to exposure to the MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 20 most recent conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan and the increased survivability from combat injury (Department of Veterans Affairs, 2014b). Researchers from a study of veterans with three major conditions (e.g., PTSD, TBI, and major depression) reported that 18.5% of those returning from the most recent conflicts had PTSD or depression, and 19.5% reported experiencing TBI during their deployment. Of the veterans responding to the study, 11.2% reported PTSD or depression but no TBI, 7.3% reported PTSD/depression and TBI, and 12.2% reported just TBI (Tanielian & Jaycox, 2008). More recent casualty statistics reported to congress indicate that, approximately 118,829 military members/veterans deployed between 2000 and 2014 were diagnosed with PTSD. During the same period 307,283 were diagnosed with some form ofTBI (Fischer, 2014). Colleges and universities across the country need to find ways to accommodate these new military veterans that may be coming to their institutions, but especially those with these sometimes unseen disabilities. The Disability Services (DS) offices on campus will need to take a leading role in this accommodation. Accommodating Veterans with Disabilities on Campus. In a study of the role of the DS staff in accommodating veterans with disabilities, 237 members of the Association on Higher Education and Disabilities completed a survey, responses indicated that only 33% were comfortable or knowledgeable about campus efforts to serve these wounded warriors. Additionally, only 17.3% felt they had above average ability to serve these veterans (Vance, Miller II, 2009). There is a need to develop veteran friendly programs that reduce red tape, and have a designated point person or office. Other recommendations were to have an ongoing campus dialogue MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 21 which includes members of the DS staff, work on collaboration with other campus professionals, and work to collaborate in educating faculty and staff on the unique needs of these veterans (Vance & Miller II, 2009). There have been many discussions on how to accommodate veterans with disabilities on college and university campuses. The American Council on Education (ACE), with support from the Kresge Foundation and the Association on Higher Education and Disability and America's Heroes at Work conducted a "Veterans Success Jam" in May of2010. The "Veteran Success Jam'', was a three-day online collaboration that brought together thousands of veterans and their families, active service members, campus leaders, nonprofit organizations, and govermnent agencies from around the country. Recommendations were generated for colleges and universities accommodating veterans with PTSD and TBI (American Council on Education, 2010). During discussions at the Veterans Success Jam it was determined that overall veterans bring a lot of good qualities with them to campus, such as a higher degree of maturity, experience and leadership qualities, familiarity with diversity, and a level of focus not seen in their peers. Unfortunately, these qualities have been earned at great personal expense, and may well affect their educational goals. Campuses that are prepared to handle these challenges will rnake the transition of these veterans much easier, and the schools will benefit from being seen as veteran friendly (American Council on Education, 2010). Part of preparing to properly serve and accommodate these veterans is to understand what PTSD and TBI are, and what effect they may have on the academic MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 22 progress of these students. It is imperative that faculty and staff be educated and aware of these possible challenges (American Council on Education, 2010). Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) in veterans usually involves a blow or concussion to the head which may include a penetrating head injury, which disrupts the function of the brain itself. These are most often associated with contact with an improvised explosive device (IED). Generally TBI can result in long and short-term issues, but most people get better over time. For those with mild cases of TB I, about 80% of the cases from the most recent conflicts, the recovery time can be as little as 3-6 months (American Council on Education, 2010). Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a psychological injury that develops in response to exposure to an extreme traumatic event or events over time. PTSD trauma may include threatened death of oneself or others, serious injury, and even just the constant threat of personal injury. This creates a feeling of fear and helplessness that actually changes the brains chemical and hormonal balance. For some victims the symptoms will disappear when they are no longer exposed, yet for others they persist over a long period of time. Flashbacks or reliving events can happen in PTSD cases, which bring the stresses back to the forefront. These victims can sometimes avoid these feelings by avoiding events or situations that may trigger them. Usually PTSD symptoms manifest themselves within a few months, but they can take years to appear (American Council on Education, 2010). Staff and faculty may find it helpful to know what cognitive difficulties may be manifested in a veteran with PTSD or TBI. Each person manifests symptoms differently, so it hard to generalize. These symptoms can be things such as: difficulty in MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 23 concentration and attention; challenges processing infonnation; learning and memory deficits; sluggish abstract reasoning; and slowed executive functioning including problem solving, planning, insight, and sequencing. These veterans may also experience stressors outside the classroom involving home life, work, sleep disturbances, trouble managing time, and panic attacks (American Council on Education, 2010). When considering how to accommodate veterans with these types of disabilities it is best to understand that PTSD and TBI .symptoms are expressed in very unique ways. Standard procedures for accommodating a student with disabilities may not work with these veterans. In addition, in extreme cases, PTSD and TBI may also lead to depression and suicidal thoughts. These symptoms can be aggravated by academic pressure, health concerns, relationship issues, sleep problems, and substance abuse issues. Some factors that may have a positive effect on these veterans are social support by other veterans, professional medical treatment, good health and eating habits, and participation in recreational activities (American Coimcil on Education, 2010). Institutional faculty and staff should also be aware that not all veterans with PTSD or TBI will require disability accommodations to be successful in education, while others may. If they do require and qualify for special accommodations they will normally fall under either the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, or Section 504 of the Vocational and Rehabilitation Act of 1973. So adjustments may be made for these veterans, as they are with others with disabilities, as long as the accommodations do not change the overall academic program in question (American Council on Education, 2010). MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 24 Another factor to consider is that these veterans are less likely than their peers on campus to access special accommodations for which they may qualify. There are many reasons this may occur such as pride, lack of understanding campus resources on their part, or the feeling that faculty and staff do not understand PTSD or TBI. It is necessary to realize that most staff and faculty have not experienced anything close to what these veterans have been exposed to in combat (Rumann & Hamrick, 2009). Faculty and staff must be informed in other ways because of the lack of exposure to military experiences and lifestyle. Increased awareness by faculty and staff can also meet the needs of broader commitment to diversity on campus (American Council on Education, 2010; Rtunann & Hamrick, 2009). Faculty and staff should know that the manifestation of symptoms, and even the diagnosis of these conditions, may not occur until well after they leave the military. Therefore, they may come to the campus undiagnosed. Becoming aware of the outward signs of PTSD and TBI could present opportunities to counsel veterans on possible accommodations, for those that have not already made arrangements with the DS office on campus. Of course, veterans must be willing participants and never be coerced (American Council on Education, 2010). Faculty and staff would also find it useful to become aware of other veteran resources on campus and in the community that may be helpful in the veterans' transition to the college or university setting. These could be resources such as the Veteran Student Services office, Veterans Upward Bound (VUB), the local Student Veterans of America chapter, or various community veteran resources like the Veteran Service Organizations (American Legion, Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW), and Disabled American Veterans MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 25 (DAV)), the Veterans Administration (VA) hospital, and others. Partnering with outside organizations would help university staff in handling veteran specific issues (American Council on Education, 2010; Rumann & Hamrick, 2009). In general faculty and staff should understand that most veterans are new to their disabilities as well and may be unaware of their rights as disabled students to receive accommodations for an identified disability. The process of getting and accepting help can take time for these veterans. Sometimes their military background can hinder them, mainly due to the stigma of weakness that can be placed upon someone in the military with disabilities or shortcomings. Faculty and staff should also be aware that there are many other disabilities that veterans may bring to campus in addition to PTSD/TBI such as loss oflimb(s), severe burns, deafness, vision issues, and general learning disabilities (American Council on Education, 2010). Veterans with Disabilities. In a study published in 2012, focus groups were held involving 31 veterans who had self-reported PTSD symptoms. Transcripts of the sessions were analyzed to establish dominant themes in the responses of these veterans. Findings indicated that veterans with PTSD. needed services in a variety of different areas, and they also had some specific recommendations for easing their transition (Ellison, et al., 2012). The veterans in the study found it important for the schools to provide services for educational planning, including helping them to prepare for the rigors of higher education. The reality is that many of these veterans went into the military because they felt they were not ready for college. The veterans felt they needed help with counseling on the educational goals, and in choosing an appropriate major (Ellison, et al., 2012). MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 26 Another concern for these recent veterans is being able to reintegrate into society after their military service. Many of them left from their parents' homes right after high school without learning to live civilian life on their own. The veterans indicated the sudden change in social, psychological, and environmental norms from the military to civilian life created concerns. These concerns included homelessness, lack of family support, medical and/or addiction needs, physical disability needs, financial difficulties, and the how to balance their education and living needs (Ellison, et al., 2012). One theme that manifested itself across the veterans was the need for guidance and counseling regarding their GI Bill® and VA benefits. The veterans indicated that when calling veterans services they had difficulty reaching an actual person who could answer questions for them. When they did reach an individual, this person lacked proper knowledge of benefits, or could not properly cotmsel them on the pitfalls of choosing one educational benefit over the other. The staff at these offices need to be knowledgeable and infonnative (Ellison, et al., 2012). These veterans were concerned over the impact that their PTSD would have on their educational attainment. They indicated high anxiety dnring classes which could be triggered by things such as loud and sudden noises, hypervigilance while traveling to school, or anything that might remind them of their combat experience. Some indicated that they coped with these difficulties by using medication, positioning themselves at the back of the class, trying to choose classes with fewer students, or even evening or online classes. The veterans also expressed concern with perceived difficulties in memory and concentration in class, and the need for special accommodations (Ellison, et al., 2012). MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 27 The veterans provided some possible ways that institutions could mitigate some of the difficulties that they face. They indicated the need for on campus outreach services from VA facilities where the veterans normally gather. The younger veterans also expressed a need for more outreach by veterans their own age and not just by groups of what they perceived to be veterans old enough to be their fathers (Ellison, et al., 2012). Peer support was another area where they felt services could be utilized to their benefit. The veterans felt that being able to interact with veterans who have had similar experiences, would help them to navigate the difficulties of the environment. There is an unseen trnst bond that fellow veterans feel from each other, especially if they know they have each served in similar combat situations. The veterans thought that a program of veterans providing counseling to veterans would be ideal and that one-on-one service settings would be best (Ellison, et al., 2012). These veterans also suggested that there should be some coordination between services received with their VA education benefit and with the clinical services related to their PTSD treatment. Veterans were concerned with the logistics of managing their schooling and the case management involving their treatment. The veterans suggested that there be some coordination between the schools and the VA to have school representatives available at the VA facilities for question and answer sessions related to higher education, as well as maybe some workshops related to college preparation. The veterans also wondered if it were possible to have individual advocates that would walk them through the processes such as admissions, financial aid, and enrollment (Ellison, et al., 2012). MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 28 The veterans also suggested that there is a big change between the structured life of the military and the less structured civilian culture. Veterans felt in the military they had less autonomy and flexibility, and were concerned that their dependence on the military structure could hinder them in college persistence. Veterans felt that the process on campus needed to be streamlined and clear in order for them to better cope with the process. A one-stop-shop for veteran student services was suggested (Ellison, et al., 2012). Another concern was the perceived disconnect from the social networks the veterans relied upon prior to serving in the military. Having experienced many traumatic combat related experiences, and feeling a veteran no longer fit into groups or social settings that veterans may have been included in prior to their service. The veterans' social networks had become those that were fonned in the military and the transition back to civilian social networks was difficult. Veteran student groups on campus and national student veteran organizations could help ease these concerns (Ellison, et al., 2012). Reintegration into Society As veterans return from conflicts they have difficulties reintegrating into work environments, educational environments, social interactions and relationships, general physical functions, and sound emotional well-being. This is especially true for veterans that return with disabilities such as PTSD and TBI (Ostovary & Dapprich, 2011). As related specifically to (re)integration in education, veterans find both challenges and opportunities await them. The challenges come in many different forms and veterans need help navigating them upon entering the higher education environment. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE The opportunities depend on the approach to veterans established in each school (Ostovary & Dapprich, 2011). 29 One of the challenges faced in educational (re )integration is the loss of the direct benefits veterans were used to receiving in the military. Veterans are used to their day to day needs being taken care of for them with relative ease for the most part. Veterans' educational benefits can sometimes be delayed. The veterans are encouraged to apply for their GI Bill® benefits soon after discharge, yet the process of receiving these benefits is not immediate. This urgency in using the education benefit may cause the veteran to feel rushed into college enrollment and amplify things such as anger, irritability, and poor concentration in school. Classroom settings can also be a challenge and veterans may be affected by class size and noise, placement in the room, and attention and concentration issues. The veterans themselves report problems with the rigors of the curricuhun, social interaction with other students, and their perceived limits to services on campus (Ostovary & Dapprich, 2011). Educational satisfaction of veterans relates to how the respective institution of higher education works to become veteran friendly. Colleges and universities need adapt to the needs of new veterans as they transition. A veteran friendly campus is one that collaborates all services related to the (re)integration of veterans with disabilities. The services should include veteran centers on campus, veteran specific orientations, intramural programs for disabled students, and a campus-wide focus on veteran services. In addition, a student veteran organization should be established on campus. These organizations may improve interaction between veterans and traditional students, and between veterans and faculty and staff (Ostovary & Dapprich, 2011). MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 30 As has been the pattern of past generations, social and political change has occurred when veterans return from the fight, including those that return with disabilities. Following WWI the change came in the form of what was called the Commission on National Aid to Vocational Education and Disabled Veterans Act. Following WWII the change was known as the Serviceman's Readjustment Act. Then after Vietnam the program was called Veteran's Readjustment Assistance Act. Our newest veterans with disabilities are covered under the provisions of the Americans with Disabilities Act Amendment Act (AD AAA) of 2008 (Ostovary & Dapprich, 2011 ). Higher Education: Weathering the Perfect Storm. It has been said that the return of veterans from recent conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with the passage of the ADAAA, and the comprehensive benefits of the new Post 9/11 GI Bill® have created a so-called perfect storm that higher education has to overcome (Grossman, 2009). How higher education reacts will detennine how well they navigate the storm. Veterans with disabilities have historically been seen as assertive when it comes to their civil rights and educational benefits earned during their service. Many have been through traumas of the battlefield and will have been diagnosed with PTSB, TBI, and other issues (Grossman, 2009). Institutions of higher education will have to adapt to and learn to accommodate these veterans. Postsecondary institutions can become overwhelmed by this new influx of veterans with disabilities, or it could see this as an opportunity for positive changes. These new veterans could become the wakeup call that higher education needs, or a stumbling block. To weather the storm they will need to look at this challenge from a MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 31 new perspective and come up with new solutions that include a campus-wide response to accommodating veterans, and a Universal Design (UD) approach to their education (Burnett & Segoria, 2009; Grossman, 2009). The researcher (Grossman, 2009) lays out the challenges that come along with this perfect storm, and that higher education institutions will have to decide how they meet the challenges. First, they have to decide to prepare for this new population of veterans, of which they have had little if any experience dealing with. This will require training of faculty, staff, and DS staff on the characteristics and needs of these veterans. Although the AD AAA makes it clear that institutions are not required to fundamentally change their programs, but when it comes to veteran accommodations they may need to determine what really is fundamental. Veterans with PTSD and TBI require adjustments (accommodations) to the status quo, yet at the same time they do not want to be coddled (Grossman, 2009). The second challenge for colleges and universities is to develop veteran outreach activities that encourage them to enroll in college, take advantage of earned accommodations, and persist to graduation. They will need to address veterans with disabilities that hesitate to self-identify, that bristle at even being called or considered disabled, but that still need to be informed of campus benefits. Outreach activities should take place at locations where veterans may congregate (on and off campus), on social media cites, and at local military base education centers where possible. Veteran-specific student organizations, clubs, and fraternities may also be developed to inform veterans. For the most part these veterans are not used to the academic culture surrounding MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 32 disability accommodations and need help reviewing their documented disabilities or help obtaining proper documentation (Grossman, 2009). The next challenge noted is that veterans need someone on campus that can support them when the challenges and rigors of academic life arise. Ideally this would be someone with military experience generally similar to the individual veteran experience. Veterans with disabilities need to have someone they know can relate to their specific needs, and challenges, and be sympathetic to their cause (Grossman, 2009). Finally, colleges and universities need to be up to the challenge that this is an ongoing opportunity to help these current veterans and those that may come in the future. The higher education institutions should realize that America has made a commitment to these veterans and that part of that commitment is to their proper education. The commitment to this opportunity has to stay consistent, perpetual, and always focused on meeting the needs of these veterans with disabilities (Grossman, 2009). Summary There has been a long history established of federal assistance for veterans leaving military service, especially since WWII concluded. The GI Bill® has become a major part of those benefits. The original GI Bill® was a very generous benefit that provided an educational opportunity to millions of veterans following WWII, and literally changed society for generations. The newest version, the Post 9/11 GI Bill®, once again offers a tremendous benefit to veterans transitioning from the military and entering higher education environments around the country. This new GI Bill®, along with the large number of veterans leaving service following the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, have facilitated the need for change MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 33 and adaption of student services at these institutions of higher education. Some of these colleges and universities have done better at adapting than others, but the need for all to make the change is required. Reintegration of these veterans into society, and more specifically into education, is critical for their well-being. These veterans almost always need help navigating the challenges faced in a higher education environment. Colleges and universities must change and adapt as society does in relation to veterans. Many of these new veterans coming to higher education have been exposed to combat and may have disabilities, including PTSD and TBI, which will need to be accommodated. Adjustments will need to be made by faculty and staff in order to address the educational needs of these veterans with disabilities. How these adjustments are made, and how effective they are in helping the veterans transition, will impact the experience of both the institutes of higher education the veterans they serve. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 34 PURPOSE With the passing of the Post 9/11 GI Bill®, colleges and universities have seen the greatest influx of veterans in higher education since the end of the Vietnam conflict (Cook & Kim, 2009; Rumann & Hamrick, 2009). This new GI Bill® benefit is the most generous since the end of WWII (Radford, 2009) which has resulted in higher veteran enrollment, and has required colleges and universities to adjust policies and procedures to meet the needs of these veterans. In research by Zoli, Maury, and Fay (2015) of more than 8,500 military members and veterans, 92% said that education should play a role in post-service transition. Unfortunately most colleges and universities were inadequately prepared to meet the needs of this new influx of veterans and have been reactive in making the necessary adjustments to meet their needs (Brown & Gross, 2011). Many of these new veterans have returned with disabilities related to their wartime experiences, such as PTSD and TBI, which require additional considerations and accommodations. These veterans with disabilities have both temporary and chronic health issues that have affected their educational experience (Church, 2009). Faculty, staff, and related student services offices need to work together to meet the needs and special accommodations of these veterans with disabilities. The purpose of this study was to detennine veterans/veterans with disabilities perspectives on how well they have been integrated and accommodated at the community college and university level in a western state. The study sought to determine how veterans with disabilities perceive overall services for injured veterans on campus, accommodations and disability services for veterans, and supportive services that allow veterans to persist and graduate from a post-secondary school. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 35 The primary research questions were: 1. To what extent do veterans feel that their respective college or university has developed a veteran friendly campus by streamlining the admission, enrollment, and veteran services processes? 2. To what extent do veterans feel faculty and staff have an adequate understanding of the experiences of military veterans and are faculty and staff aware of helpful ways of integrating or reintegrating them into the classroom and into higher education in general? 3. To what extent do veterans perceive that colleges or universities adequately understand and accommodate veterans' with disabilities, specifically those disabilities related to combat related issues such as PTSD and TBI? MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 36 METHOD To address the purpose of this study, a needs analysis through survey research was conducted using the perspectives of veterans at both a university and community college in a western state. Veteran attitudes and perspectives were gathered related to their experiences during the admissions and emollment processes at their institutes of higher / education. Additionally the participants considered disabled, due to PTSD or TBI, were further queried relating to their specific experiences on campus. The study was conducted using a survey consisting of 4-point Likert scale questionnaire (Appendix A), with follow-up open-ended questions. The Likert scale questions were used to measure the overall perception of veterans' experiences in higher education. The open-ended questions were used to identify common themes and opinions from these same veterans. Additional survey questions were provided for veterans who self-identified as having PTSD and/or TBL The study was of particular interest to the researcher due to past experience in the military, work experience serving veterans on campus, and experience as a student having used GI Bill® benefits for graduate studies. The researcher served in the U.S. Army for over 22 years retiring in 2005, was grandfathered into the Post 9/11 GI Bill® benefits after retirement, and used those benefits in pursuit of a Master of Education degree at a university in a western state. Additionally the researcher is a service-connected veteran with disabilities. The researcher worked with veterans at a university as a staff member in a Department of Education program called Veterans Upward Bound (Department of Education, 2014), and was a member of a university committee of concerned faculty and staff, dedicated to creating a veteran friendly environment. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 37 Participants The study surveyed veterans attending a university and a community college in a western state, who were associated with the Veterans Upward Bound (VUB) program at each campus. The survey was distributed to 158 veterans who participated in VUB between 2013 and 2015. Total respondents to the survey were 33, a 23% response rate. As with the military in general, it was anticipated that the majority of the respondents would be male (see Table 1). Part of the survey allowed the veterans to identify whether they had a serviceconnected disability for PTSD and/or TBI. Those that identified themselves as disabled due to PTSD/TBI were further queried, to gather information related to their particular experiences regarding disability accommodations and services on campus. Table I. Respondents by branch and years of service, and by branch and gender. 0-5 years 6-10 years 11-19 years Retired 20+ Male Female Army 4 4 1 1 8 2 Navy 2 1 NIA 1 3 1 Air Force NIA 4 NIA 4 5 3 Marine Corp 5 2 NIA NIA 6 1 Nat. Guard NIA NIA NIA 1 NIA 1 Reserve 1 2 NIA NIA 3 Total 12 13 1 7 25 8 MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 38 Instruments This research was conducted using a survey of questions related to the veterans' experiences and satisfaction level with campus services, including questions specifically for those veterans who identified themselves as having a service-connected disability (Appendix A). The questionnaire measured levels of satisfaction or dissatisfaction with each topic. No neutral response was offered to the respondents. The researcher's rationale being that the veterans were either satisfied or not with each aspect of their experience on campus. The open-ended questions required a written response that allowed the respondents to express deeper feelings related to the topics. These were used to further identify common themes. Procedure The study identified veterans enrolled in VUB using program specific database software known as Blumen® (Compansol, 2012). The database is used to track the progress of veterans in VUB and was readily available to the researcher. Although the researcher had access to the veterans in the VUB program, Institutional Review Board (IRB) permissions were requested in accordance with institutional procedures. The IRB request included all survey instruments and informed consent forms required for the study. Once approval of the study was given (Appendix B), the researcher obtained a current number ofVUB participants served between 2013 and 2015, and began the survey process. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 39 An email was sent to 158 veterans emolled in VUB between 2013 and 2015. The initial email introduced the study and asked each veteran to participate in the survey. The email made clear that their participation in the survey was consent for their data to be used in the study. The veterans were instructed that these surveys would include descriptive information such as background, age, and sex, but that no identifiable information would be published in the results. Of the initial 158 emails sent, 15 were rejected due to invalid emails, and two veterans specifically requested not to be contacted further and were removed from the participant list. The final pool was 141 veterans. One week after the initial email, a second email was sent to each veteran with a link to the survey and they were asked to complete it as quickly as possible. After a two week response period the researcher sent the link again, to offer those veterans who have not yet responded the opportunity to participate. Due to minimal response, the survey link was then sent out two additional times before it was determined that the maximum voluntary response was likely reached. There were a total of 33 completed surveys received, or a 23% response rate approximately. Of those received, eight women veterans completed the survey, or 24%. Unfortunately researchers have found that response rates to online surveys are significantly lower than paper surveys, despite various practices used to lift total responses. It was reported that online surveys had response rates 23 % lower than that of paper surveys (Nulty 2008). Nulty suggests the following procedures as a way to boost response rates from online surveys such as: MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 1. "Pushing" the survey using an easy access URL sent directly to the participants. 2. Frequent reminders to the participants, at least 3, however some researchers in the study were concerned with irritating the survey population. 3. Involving academics with a vested interest, to remind possible participants. 40 4. Somehow persuading participants that the data from their responses will be used usefully and taken seriously. 5. Providing rewards of some sort, prizes, points, extra credit, etc. But some cautioned that students should do it because it is worth their time, versus extrinsic motivators that may skew the sample. 6. Help students to understand how to give constructive criticism, which can help their open-ended responses. 7. Create surveys that seek constructive criticism, which encourages participation and avoids the pitfalls of simple numerical rating surveys. During the data collection process, some of these tactics were employed to increase response rates. As indicated earlier in this research, multiple emails with an easy to access URL were used, providing frequent reminders, participants were informed that their data would be used to improve the situation of current and future veteran students, and the survey was constrncted in a way that would allow the veterans to provide constrnctive criticism using both a Likert scale survey and follow-up open-ended comments. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 41 Based on the researcher's work with veterans for over 10 years prior to this study, the response rate for the current research was not a surprising. Most veterans have been reluctant to participate in extracurricular activities and assignments given through VUB, due to their busy life and their focus on the requirements of their education which effect their grades. In addition, female veterans seem more likely to participate than male veterans. Female veterans made up only 16% of the initial pool of veterans to whom the survey was sent, but responded at a rate of 24%. Additionally, of those who responded 33% indicated they had been diagnosed with PTSD and/or TBI. Data Analysis The survey was administered and gathered over the course of a semester and the results were analyzed. Data were reviewed on a regular basis as the surveys were returned by the respondents. The researcher reviewed the responses for overall concepts, emerging patterns, and overarching categorization. The data were described and interpreted to answer questions posed by the research on the military veteran experience in higher education in a western state. An ecological psychology approach was talcen to analyze the participant's perspectives related to their environment (Boudah, 2011). Ecological psychology is the study of the relationship of humans and their environments, and how that enviromnent affects the inhabitants. In this case the higher education environment and military veterans. The researcher collected the data over time and then coded the data for analysis. During coding the researcher worked to identify patterns, developed categories, and MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE looked for common themes and trends. As new responses crune in, patterns categories and themes were changed and adjusted as necessary. 42 The researcher then moved beyond the patterns, categories and themes to develop a theory based on a review of the causes, consequences, and relationships of the veteran perspective. The researcher brought a theoretical sensitivity to the subject based on past experience in the military and current work with veterans on college and university crunpuses. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE RESULTS 43 The survey questions were broken down into demographic data, and seven survey sections: (a) overall experience in higher education, (b) website navigation, (c) admissions, (d) enrollment services, (e) veterans services office, (f) faculty awareness/classroom enviromnent/campus life, and (g) service-connected disability. Likert scale answers were gathered, and the respondents were also given the opportunity to comment on each section as well. See the Likert scale results (Appendix C). Demographic Data Based on the survey answers in this section, the researcher received a good mixture of military veterans. Of the respondents, seven indicated they were retired military (typically a minimum of20 years served), one had served 11-19 years, 13 had served 6-10 years, and 12 had served in the military 0-5 years. As to the question of how long each veteran had been out of the military before starting college, nine veterans had been out just 0-6 months, only three 7-12 months, seven had been out 1-2 years, three had been out 3-5 years, and 11 had been out of the military over five years. Of the veterans who responded, 25 were male and eight were female. Combat zone experience was high among respondents, which reflects the fact that the military has been involved in one conflict or another for over a decade. Of the 33 respondents 25 had been deployed to a combat zone, including six of the eight female veterans. There was a fairly even mixture of veteran students attending two or four year postsecondary institutions as well. Of the respondents, 10 were attending a 2-year institution and 13 were attending a 4-year institution. The rest were either imminently MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 44 graduating, starting school the following semester, or were just not enrolled in school at the time of the survey. The military branch breakdown of the respondents were 10 that had served in the Army, four from the Navy, eight from the Air Force, seven from the Marines, and four who had served in a reserve component. Overall Experience in Higher Education When asked iftheir overall experience in higher education had been positive, nearly 73% either agreed or strongly agreed with the statement, and the remaining 27% disagreed or strongly disagreed. As to whether their school was working to accommodate veterans, 66% either agreed or strongly agreed and the remaining 33% disagreed or strongly disagreed. And finally as to whether veteran programs/benefits have improved since they have been at school, nearly 56% either agreed or strongly agreed, while 44% either disagreed or strongly disagreed. Open ended comments from this section included one from a veteran who said, "Seems to be more difficult once you've been identified as a veteran." Another veteran commented, "Some departments are set up in such a way that Veterans who use their G .I. Bill do not get the full benefits. ([e.g.] the Automotive Department) Some of the classes have 25 hours of seat time for 1 week with homework and is considered part time." Website Navigation The respondents overwhelmingly agreed that their respective college/university website was easy to find online, with 100% that either agreed or strongly agreed. Once they found the site 75% either agreed or strongly agreed that the site was easy to navigate, MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 45 while 25% reported a negative experience and either disagreed or strongly disagreed that the website was easy to locate. When it came to veteran-specific webpages, 60% either agreed or strongly agreed that it was easy to locate veteran-specific webpages and that they were either in one location or easily linked. Yet 40% disagreed or strongly disagreed, and found the webpages more difficult to locate. The respondents that either agreed or strongly agreed that veteran webpages were clear and understandable was about 73%, with about 27% that disagreed or strongly disagreed. Finally, over 93% of the respondents either agreed or strongly agreed that contact information for Veterans Services was easy to find on the website. When asked to comment about website navigation, one veteran said, "Veterans Services website need[s] a complete makeover. Veterans Upward [B]ound need[s] some life to it, graphics. Still have very old pictures. Out of date. Its 2015 folks." Admissions A clear 100% of the respondents either agreed or strongly agreed that online admissions application was easily fotmd, clear, and understandable. Over 68% either agreed or strongly agreed that the application clearly asked them to identify as a military member or veteran, with approximately 31 % that either disagreed or strongly disagreed that the application clearly asked them to identify as a military member or veteran. The vast majority of the veterans, over 96%, either agreed or strongly agreed that the admissions office was easy to locate on their campus if needed. Approximately 63% either agreed or strongly agreed that the admissions staff was helpful, were able to answer MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE veteran related questions, and understood veteran related procedures while over 36% disagreed or strongly disagreed. 46 Just over 53% of the veterans either agreed or strongly agreed that the procedure to transfer in credit for military experience was clear and understandable, while nearly 47% disagreed or strongly disagreed. As to whether their respective school offered veteran-specific orientations or information sessions, approximately 53% disagreed or strongly disagreed. Nearly 47% agreed or strongly agreed. When asked whether the overall admissions process was veteran friendly, nearly 70% either agreed or strongly agreed that it was, while about 30% disagreed or strongly disagreed that the process was veteran friendly. Comments on admissions included one veteran who said, [About the application] "the box that asks if you are a vet is a small box that most vets don't see." [As to whether the staff was helpful] "When you ask any questions on the phone, as soon as you say you're a vet, they transfer you to Veteran Services, even though your question is about admissions." [In reference to veteran orientation] "Some orientations include a portion for vets, but most don't." Another veteran commented, "I honestly can't remember if Veteran status was an option on the application. The local VA office had to add me as Veteran with school. There is a disconnect somewhere." Enrollment Services When asked about enrollment services, over 85% ofrespondents either agreed or strongly agreed that the online registration process was clear and understandable, with just over 14% disagreed or strongly disagreed. Nearly 94% of the veterans either agreed or strongly agreed that the registrar's office was easy to locate on their respective campus. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 47 The veterans were also asked if they had access to an advisor for help planning and choosing courses, as well as assistance in enrolling. Approximately 74% of the respondents either agreed or strongly agreed, with just about 26% that disagreed or strongly disagreed. As to whether the registrar office staff were familiar with veteranspecific needs, only about 45% either agreed or strongly agreed, and 55% didn't feel their needs were met. Over 78% of the veterans surveyed either agreed or strongly agreed that enrollment deadlines, add/drop periods, and the semester schedules were made clear, while approximately 22 % disagreed or strongly disagreed. One veteran said concerning enrollment services, "I specifically had to ask for an adviser with a military background to assist me. It was difficult to process to figure out what classes I needed to finish my degree with the military. The other advisers gave a generic tutorial on general education classes which was helpful to a point. To be fair it was extremely difficult to get assistance from the military." Another veteran commented, "I could find no specific counselor to meet with to plan a course schedule. That was left up to the advisor for the degree you majored in. Getting a meeting with that person is absolutely ridiculous and time consuming. Not easy in the slightest." Veterans Services Office When it came to ease of locating Veterans Services on campus, almost 85% either agreed or strongly agreed that it was no problem, with the remaining 15% who either disagreed or strongly disagreed. Some 78% ofrespondents either agreed or strongly agreed that the staff was friendly, welcoming and knowledgeable on GI Bill® benefits, but the 22% remaining either disagreed or strongly disagreed. The majority of the veterans, just over 77%, either agreed or strongly agreed that procedures for certification of GI MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE Bill® benefits clear and understandable, or they were explained adequately. The remaining 23% either disagreed or strongly disagreed. Nearly 81 % of the respondents either agreed or strongly agreed that the Veterans Services staff helpful in giving guidance for registration each semester, with the remaining 19% either disagreed or strongly disagreed. 48 When asked if problems with GI Bill® benefits were resolved for them in a timely manner, over 84% indicated that they either agreed or strongly agreed, with 16% that either disagreed or strongly disagreed. Comments about Veterans Services Office included one veteran who said, "The Veterans Student Services were very helpful, lmowledgeable and professional." While another commented, "The Veterans Services Office was able to answer my questions and refer me to the appropriate services I required, however, I wondered why other school officials hadn't referred me to Veterans Services first. I could have avoided a lot of confusion and wasted time." Faculty Awareness, Classroom Environment, and Campus Life When asked about whether their school had offered a reintegration program to help with transition, about 57% indicated that their school did not offer this type of program, and either disagreed or strongly disagreed. Only 43% either agreed or strongly agreed that a reintegration program was offered. Over 63% of the respondents either disagreed or strongly disagreed that their professors were aware of veteran resources on campus, with the remaining 3 7% who agreed or strongly agreed that professors were aware. Some 70% of respondents either agreed or strongly agreed that their instructors/professors interacted well with them, and MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 49 honored the veterans' confidentiality requests. The remaining 30% disagreed or strongly disagreed. When asked if veterans were aware of instructors being trained about what the military experience is like, over 60% either disagreed or strongly disagreed that the instructors had been trained, and only 40% agreed or strongly agreed that they were. As to whether the respondents felt they were treated fairly and respectfully on campus, almost 82% agreed or strongly agreed. The remaining 18% either disagreed or strongly disagreed. About 87% agreed or strongly agreed that they were allowed to share their military experiences when appropriate, while the remaining 13% disagreed or strongly disagreed. Of the veterans that responded, 80% agreed or strongly agreed that allowances were made for specific veteran seating needs. Nearly 82% agreed or strongly agreed that classroom populations are manageable in size and encourage learning, while the remaining 18% veterans disagreed or strongly disagreed. Peer mentoring programs allow veterans to get assistance with coursework, directly from other veteran students. Just over 64% of the respondents agreed or strongly agreed that their school had a peer mentoring program for support of veterans, while almost 36% disagreed or strongly disagreed. In addition, over 65% of the veterans agreed or strongly agreed that their school had a relationship with veteran service organizations, such as The American Legion, Disabled American Veterans, and the Veterans ofForeign Wars, that can assist veterans in obtaining further benefits, with the remaining respondents disagreed or strongly disagreed. Also, about 87% of the respondents agreed or strongly agreed that their school allowed the Veterans Administration (VA) to have a MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE presence on campus to assist with things such as mental health counseling, education benefits, veterans with disabilities' benefits. 50 In regards to Student Veteran Organizations (SVO), about 47% agreed or strongly agreed that they were aware their school had a SVO on campus, but about 53% disagreed or strongly disagreed. Many colleges offer a "one-stop-shop" for any resource on campus related to veterans, such as Veteran Services, VUB, Admissions, Registration, and Disability Services. This helps the veterans by providing a streamlined process for administrative offices and support resources needed while applying for and attending college. Just 58% of veterans agreed or strongly agreed that their school offered such a resource, while the remaining 42% disagreed or strongly disagreed. When asked to comment on faculty awareness, classroom environment, and campus life, a veteran commented "A one-stop shop for veterans/military issues would be very beneficial." Another veteran commented, "The VA office was moved from the student services building to a building on the outskirt of campus. It should be co-located with other student services. Their current facilities are inadequate for study or parking. I pushed hard to assist and establish a veteran student organization with no luck. Finally, it was hard transition from the "military life" and it would have been nice to have a fellow Vet as a mentor." Another veteran said, "Veterans services are on opposite ends of the campus and not located "on campus" per se. The Veterans Services Office used to be located in the administration building on campus and it was more convenient to walk between the registrars, cashier, and Vet services when problems or questions arose, but MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE last summer is was moved outside of the building and it now seems disconnected from the school." Service-connected Disability Of those that responded to this question of the survey, just over 35% (11) indicated that they had been diagnosed with PTSD, TBI, or a combination of the two illnesses. Nearly 83% of these veterans with disabilities agreed or strongly agreed that the staff of Disability Services, at their campus, were friendly, welcoming, and had an understanding of veteran-specific disabilities. 51 About 71 % of the veterans with disabilities agreed or strongly agreed that Disability Services staff had an understanding of the cognitive difficulties related to PTSD/TBI, and were trained to counsel veterans, while the remaining veterans with disabilities disagreed or strongly disagreed. As to whether Disability Services helped veterans deal with the stigma related to being "disabled", almost 74% agreed or strongly agreed, and the remaining 26% either disagreed or strongly disagreed. Over 82% of the veterans with disabilities agreed or strongly agreed that Disability Services coordinated with the VA to properly accommodate the veterans with disabilities on campus, while almost 18% disagreed or strongly disagreed. Just over 83% of veterans with disabilities agreed or strongly agreed that classroom accommodations are given to veterans with PTSD/TBI diagnoses, while nearlyl 7% disagreed or strongly disagreed. About 84% agreed or strongly agreed that test-taking and test location accommodations were given to veterans with these diagnoses, with the remaining that either disagreed or strongly disagreed. Finally, when asked whether Disability Services collaborates to educate other campus professionals MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 52 about veterans with disabilities' needs, 80% of the veterans with disabilities agreed or strongly agreed that they did, and 20% disagreed or strongly disagreed. Of those veterans that indicated they had either PTSD or TBI, one commented "If provisions are available at Weber State University for Disabled Veterans I am not aware of them." And finally, another commented "I experienced Sexual trauma in the military and received disability accommodations finally after three years at college. It would be helpful to have a female Psychologist for female veterans. I don't feel comfortable sharing my anxiety issues with a male." Table 2. Summary of responses by survey section, with the totals by section and response type. Section Strongly Agree Disagree Strongly Survey Sections Responses Agree Disagree a. Overall 93 27 34 14 18 Experience (3) b. Website 155 36 88 22 9 Navigation (7) c. College 224 48 111 43 22 Admissions (7) d. Enrollment 152 29 86 26 11 Services ( 5) e. Veteran Services 153 57 67 20 9 Office (5) f. Faculty 388 82 167 92 47 Awareness/ Classroom Environment (13) g. Service- 147 64 53 12 18 connected Disability (7) MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE DISCUSSION 53 As seen in the review of previous research on this subject, the study found that with the passing of the Post 9/11 GI Bill®, colleges and universities have seen the greatest influx of veterans in higher education since the end of the Vietnam conflict, some 40 years ago (Cook & Kim, 2009; Rumann & Hamrick, 2009). In research by Zoli, Maury, and Fay (2015) of the more than 8,500 military members and veterans who participated, 92% indicated that education should play a role in post-service transition. This new GI Bill® has resulted in higher veteran enrollment, and has required colleges and universities to adjust policies and procedures to meet the needs of these veterans. The previous research found that most colleges and universities across the country were inadequately prepared to meet the needs of this new influx of veterans and had been reactive in making the necessary adjustments to meet their needs (Brown & Gross, 2011). Research also showed a need for improvement in areas related to veterans such as assisting veterans' transition to college, developing faculty and staff awareness of veteran specific issues, meeting the needs of veterans with military related disabilities, assisting re-enrolling veterans, and providing peer to peer experiences for veterans (Cook & Kim, 2009). Previous research also suggested that institutions that encourage veterans to selfidentify early, ensure veteran program administrators are adequately trained, and that other staff and administration are trained on the new GI Bill®, tend to have more effective programs for veterans. The university should employ disability and mental health staff who understand veterans' issues, have consistent policies for college credit for military MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE training, have veteran specific orientations and informational sessions, and encourage veteran student organizations on campus (Steel, Salcedo, & Coley, 2010). 54 The current study provided an opportunity to obtain the perspective of the veterans, in one western state, as to how their respective college or university was adapting to this change. The study sought to determine veteran/veterans with disabilities' perspectives as to what extent they have been integrated and accommodated at the community college and university level. In addition, the purpose of the study was to also determine how veterans with disabilities perceive overall services for injured veterans on campus, accommodations and disability services for veterans, and supportive services that allow veterans to persist and graduate from a post-secondary school. Specifically the study sought to determine to what extent the institutions of higher education have developed a veteran friendly campus, determine to what extent does the institutional faculty and staff have an adequate understanding of the military experience, are reintegrating veterans into the classroom and into higher education in general, and to determine to what extent do the institutions adequately understand and accommodate veterans with service-connected disabilities such at PTSD and TBI. What the current study demonstrated is that progress has been made in relation to this study group but there is still room for improvement, and that colleges and universities should continue to move in a positive direction. These institutions should focus on improving all aspects of interaction with military veterans to include improving the veteran experience through proper integration, user friendly web-based resources, veteran-specific admissions and registration procedures, proactive veteran services, faculty and staff awareness and training, developing a welcoming classroom MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE environment, improved veteran integration in campus life, and also improved disability services and accommodations for veterans witb disabilities. Implications of the Results 55 There are very meaningful reasons why institutions should do tbe best job possible when serving, managing, and educating veterans. As pointed out in the previous research reviewed, Brown and Gross (2011) showed that successful management of military students brings benefits to all involved: the student; the academic institution; and the community. The study sought to measure how the veterans felt that the institutions of higher education were doing in that respect. Overall, the results of tbe current research on the veteran perspective was quite positive. The survey results indicated that, in general, there were 949 (72 % ) positive responses to survey questions and 363 (28%) negative responses (Appendix C). This by no means indicates that there have been no negative impacts on veterans at the institutions involved, but it demonstrates tbat strides are being made in a positive direction when it comes to the veteran experience at the these schools. A portion of the survey addressed the research question related to how the veterans felt their respective college or university had developed a veteran friendly campus through streamlining the admission, enrollment, and veteran services processes. When it came to the admissions process, most of the survey participants felt that the admissions process was generally smooth and could be viewed as veteran-friendly, but over one-third of the veterans thought that the admissions staff was not helpful and lacked understanding of veteran-specific issues. Also a clear procedure for transferring credit for military experience is warranted, based on tbe nearly one-half of veterans MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 56 unsatisfied with that process. This would indicate that staff training related to veteranspecific issues and problems that arise could reduce that level of dissatisfaction. Another possible option would be to have a staff member with military experience available to assist veterans. The admissions process is likely the first stumbling block that these veterans have in starting their higher education journey, so it is incumbent on the institutions to ensure veterans are welcomed, treated fairly, and that veteran needs are being addressed. Once admitted to an institute of higher education, veterans must tackle the enrollment process and find coursework suited for their chosen academic major. This can be a daunting task for veterans, many of whom have never been in a higher education environment. Over one quarter of the veterans responding to the survey felt that they did not have access to an advisor that would work with them in choosing and enrolling in courses. It is critical that veterans are advised properly, given the fact that their GI Bill® benefits are finite. Veterans cannot afford to waste time or money on coursework unrelated to their major. In addition over one half of the respondents felt that the registrar staff was unfamiliar with veteran-specific needs. If a staff member is unaware of the VA policy (e.g. against paying for courses unrelated to the veteran's major) and improperly advises the veteran, then it may create financial for the veterans. Again, training on veteran related issues and/or the presence of a veteran staff member may mitigate these kinds of problems. Veterans Services is a critical part of the veteran experience on the community college and university campus, especially for those veterans using GI Bill® benefits. It can become financially difficult on veterans if they have issues with receiving their MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE educational benefits, so Veterans Services must be efficient when certifying veterans' benefits. 57 Most survey responses relating to Veteran Services were positive, but some found that veteran services was hard to locate, that the staff was unfriendly, and that the process for obtaining GI Bill® benefits was not clear or explained properly. Some also had trouble getting proper guidance from Veteran Services during registration each semester, or when veterans experienced problems with receiving GI Bill®benefits, the problems were not resolved in a timely manner. Not all veterans will be satisfied with how a particular process unfolds, but veterans utilizing Veteran Services on campus should feel that the staff there are on the veterans' side to the best extent possible. Veteran Services should viewed by the veterans as an ally on campus, and staff should do the utmost to accommodate veteran needs. This office should be a safe haven where veterans can come for support when they are frustrated by other campus services and procedures. Interaction with instructors and professors make up most of the personal contact veterans have in higher education. Ideally they should have some knowledge about veteran issues and resources available. The second research question attempted to determine if veterans felt faculty and staffhad an adequate understanding of the experiences of military veterans. Additionally, the study attempted to determine veterans' perception as to whether the faculty and staff were aware of helpful ways of integrating or reintegrating them into the classroom and into higher education in general. Some of the difficulties that veterans face in higher education involve under informed MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE faculty, their negative classroom experiences, and general non-involvement in campus life and activities. 58 The researcher believes that it is critical to the long-term viability of veteran students, for them to be understood, accommodated, and integrated into these institutions. Over one half of the veterans indicated that their respective school either did not have an integration program, or if it did they were unsatisfied with results. In addition, nearly two thirds of veteran respondents indicated that their instructors and professors were unaware of veteran resources on campus. All staff and faculty should be aware of resources that benefit veterans, which can serve to make things easier on the veteran, staff, and faculty. The study results indicate that over one half of the veterans in the survey perceived that the faculty were not adequately trained to understand the military experience. Some colleges across the country have establish a "basic training" type program for faculty to help them be more aware of different aspects of the military experience, to help them to understand and be sympathetic. For example Purdue University, and the Veterans Success Center there, offers "Green Zone Training" to discuss what it means to serve and what veterans bring to campus. With fewer and fewer staff and faculty having military experience themselves, a program like this would be beneficial and enlightening as more veterans pursue higher education. On a positive note, the veterans overwhelmingly felt that they were treated fairly and respectfully, and were given the opportunity to share their experiences when they felt comfortable doing so in class. Approximately 30 % of the veterans who responded did not feel that the faculty honored the veterans' confidentiality requests. Some veterans really want to blend into MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 59 the fabric of the campus and do not feel comfortable being singled out or identified as a military veteran. Faculty should be sensitive to this on an individual basis, and avoid calling attention to a veteran who may not want to be identified that way. Some veterans are uncomfortable speaking of their military experiences in class, or relating it to their education, especially if it involves combat experiences. Although if comfortable in sharing, veterans' experiences can contribute to classroom learning environment and to the learning experience of all students overall, so faculty need to be sensitive and aware. Peer mentoring and student veteran organizations are other programs that have been beneficial to veterans on campuses across the country. Veterans learning and being mentored by other veterans can be another way to increase retention of veterans at the respective college or university. Organized student groups can give similar kinds of support to veterans (e.g. Student Veterans of America). An experienced veteran in college can help newer student veterans get through the difficult times by showing these fellow veterans how they survived themselves. Over one third of the veterans in the survey did not feel that there was a sound peer mentoring program, or at least an effective one at their respective schools. In addition, over one half of the veterans in the study indicated that their school did not have an adequate student veteran's organization. This study also attempted to determine how veterans with disabilities perceived their college or university understood and accommodated veterans' disabilities, specifically those related to combat related issues such as PTSD and TBI. Recent casualty statistics reported to congress indicate that, approximately 118,829 military members/veterans deployed between 2000 and 2014 were diagnosed MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 60 with PTSD. During the same period 307,283 were diagnosed with some form ofTBI (Fischer, 2014). In the study by Zoli, Maury, and Fay (2015), the researchers reported over 3.9 million veterans had been identified as disabled by the Veterans Administration (VA). Of those, 43% were from the Gulf War era and beyond. Additionally, of the more than 8,500 respondents 58% reported a service related disability. Of the veterans that reported a service-connected disability, 79% indicated that the disability created obstacles for them as they transitioned to civilian life. In regards to pursuing higher education, 12% indicated the disability hindered beginning higher education, and 28% said the disability created obstacles in completing higher education (Zoli, Maury, and Fay, 2015). It is critical that colleges and universities across the country find ways to accommodate these military veterans who may be attending to their institutions, but especially those with these unseen disabilities. The Disability Services (DS) offices on campus will need to take a leading role in this accommodation. The DS staff should be at the forefront when it comes to service-connected veterans with disabilities. In this study, of the veterans who identified as being disabled due to PTSD and/or TB!, over 82% agreed that DS staff at their campus were friendly and welcoming, and had an understanding of veteran-specific disabilities. It was by no means unanimous, with about 18% disagreeing, so there is room for improvement. The DS staff also seemed to have at least some understanding of the cognitive difficulties of those veterans experiencing PTSD/TBI issues, and these veterans felt the staff had adequate training to counsel them in relation to these issues. The DS staff was also widely viewed as being helpful to veterans struggling with the stigma that is felt by being called "disabled". MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 61 The results indicate that most of the veterans with disabilities were receiving accommodations in the classroom, and for test-taking, as well as these veterans feeling positive about how the DS staff educated other campus professionals about veterans with disabilities' needs. There were some veterans that disagreed, but the majority seemed to have had a positive experience with Disability Services. There were 14 7 combined responses to survey questions related to veteran disability, with 117 (79%) being positive in nature. The DS office and staff seem to be serving veterans adequately, with room to improve. Limitations Although the surveys were conducted in only one western state, the researcher believes that the results can be viewed in the broader context in that improvements are being made in higher education for this new influx of veterans. Others may argue that the results of the research are not adequately generalizable based on the sample size. The researcher agrees that the response rate for the survey was not ideal, but given that overall response rates for online surveys are traditionally low, the researcher felt that there were enough data to proceed. Veterans tend to focus on what directly effects their education, and therefore if the veteran does not see a relation to coursework and grades they tend to be less interested in extracurricular inquiries (Quaye & Harper, 2014). In reviewing the demographic data, it appears that there was a well-represented sample of our military, in years served, branch of anned service, deployment to combat zones, and gender. There appeared to be few if any over-represented veterans in the specific categories, other than females (see Table 1). MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 62 Future Research The study can be expanded by conducting future research to include more colleges and universities in different regions of the country. Including more veterans in varied geographical and demographically diverse areas of the country would build a broader picture of how higher education is doing in serving, managing, and educating veterans. Future research could also include the use of varied survey tools including online surveys, mailed surveys, convenience surveys, one-on-one interviews, and group discussions. The study sought to measure only the perspective of the veterans from the beginning of the research project, using a convenience sample of Veterans Upward Bound (VUB) participants. Future research could also measure the perspectives of institutional staff and faculty as well as a broader spectrum of veterans, in order to identify any possible disconnects and common ground between veteran and institutional perspectives. An institution of higher education may believe that it is doing all it can to adequately serve veterans, whereas the veterans feel that there is room to improve. This needs analysis was undertalcen to inform the institutions of higher education regarding the perspectives of military veterans. It will infonn universities, and the entities that support those veterans, ways to improve the veteran experience. Additionally, the results will provide a veteran perspective in hopes of better meeting the needs of college and university veterans. It is recommended that future research will review these data and aslc additional questions of the veterans and university faculty and staff to better support those who have served on the country's behalf. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 63 Summary The study began with historical background and context on the GI Bill® from the beginning in 1944, to the present configuration. With the newest iteration of the GI Bill® and the generous benefits to veterans, colleges and universities are seeing higher enrollment by military veterans than they have since the conclusion of the Vietnam Conflict (Cook & Kim, 2009; Rumann & Hamrick, 2009). The literature review showed that institutions of higher education were ill prepared to meet the needs of this new influx of veterans, and had been reacting to the challenge rather than being proactive and anticipating changes that needed to be made. In addition, due to higher rates of survivability in combat, many of the veteran students entering higher education now have returned from conflict with injuries and illnesses such as PTSD and TBI. Previous research showed that nearly 85% of those receiving combat injuries are surviving due to advances in protective body armor, use of coagulants, and advances in the military medical evacuation system (Madaus, Miller II, & Vance, 2009). In the current study, the researcher sought to measure the veteran perspective as to how the institutions of higher education are doing in relation to serving veterans in general, as well as veterans with disabilities. The study findings were more positive than expected, based on prior research, with 949 (72%) positive responses to survey questions and 363 (28%) negative responses (see appendix A). This could plainly be an indicator that the institutions of higher education in the western state involved are doing better than elsewhere, or a broader indicator that the veteran experience is improving generally. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 64 The current research showed that improvements were being made, based on the perspective of the veterans involved. The responses to the research survey were generally positive, with some exceptions. This indicates that the institutions where these veterans have attended, are making strides in a positive direction. Responses from the survey participants did show that there are many areas relating to veterans that have room for improvement though. It is the intent of the researcher to make these results available to higher education institutions, in order to facilitate the needed improvements. The results also indicated that most of the veterans with disabilities were mostly positive about the institutions meeting veterans with disabilities' needs. There were some veterans that disagreed, but the majority seemed to have had a positive experience with Disability Services on campus. As reported earlier in the study, there were 14 7 combined responses to survey questions related to veteran disability, with 117 (79%) being positive in nature. The DS office and staff seem to be serving veterans adequately, with room to improve. The researcher has concluded that there are still challenges ahead for veterans in higher education, but that the process in moving in a positive direction. Veterans are seeing these improvements and are becoming more optimistic in their outlook. The more optimistic that veterans become, the better the retention and graduation rates will become. Colleges and universities must work hand-in-hand with the veterans to improve the experience for faculty, staff, and student veterans in the future. The individtial veteran student, the higher education institutions, and the community at large will benefit from these improvements. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE REFERENCES 65 American Council on Education (2010). 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Student engagement in higher education: Theoretical perspectives and practical approaches for diverse populations. New York, NY: Routledge. Radford, A. W. (2009). Military service members and veterans in higher education: What the new GI Bill may mean for postsecondary institutions. Retrieved from http://www. acenet. edu/news-room/Documents/Military-Servi ce-Members-and- V eterans-in-Higher-Education. pdf MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE Rumann, C. B., & Hamrick, F.A. (2010). Student veterans in transition: Re-enrolling after war zone deployments. The Journal of Higher Education, 81 ( 4), 431-458. 68 Rumann, C. B., & Hamrick, F.A. (2009). Supporting student veterans in transition. New Directions for Student Services, 126, 25-34. doi:l0.1002/ss.313 Steele, J. L., Salcedo, N., & Coley, J. (2010). Service members in school: Military veterans' experiences using the Post 9/11 GI Bill and pursuing postsecondary education. Retrieved from http://www.acenet.edu/newsroorn/ Documents/Service-Mernbers-in-School-Executi ve-Surnmary-2010. pdf Tanielian, T., & Jaycox, L. H. (2008). Invisible wounds: Psychological and cognitive injuries, their consequences, and services to assist Recovery. Retrieved from http://www.rand.org/content/darn/rand/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND MG720.pd f Vance, M. L., & Miller II, W. K. (2009). Serving wounded warriors: Current practices in postsecondary education. Journal of Postsecondary Education and Disability, 22(1 ), 18-35. Zoli, C., Maury, R., & Fay, D. (2015). Missing perspectives: Servicemembers' transition from service to civilian life. Institute for Veterans & Military Family Members, Syracuse University. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE APPENDICES Appendix A: Veterans Survey Questions Appendix B: IRB Approval Letter Appendix C: Survey Results Spreadsheet 69 MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE APPENDIX A Veterans Survey Questions Veteran Experience Questions and Comments All survey questions (except open-ended comments) will have one of the following responses: Strongly Agree, Agree, Disagree, and Strongly Disagree, Not Applicable (N/A). a. Overall Experience in Higher Education 1. My overall experience on the campus has been positive. 2. My school seems to be working to accommodate military veterans. 3. Veteran programs/benefits have improved since I've been at my school. b. Website Navigation 4. The website for the college/university was easy to find online. 5. Once fmmd, the website was easy to navigate once found. 70 6. It was easy to find veteran specific web pages, they were one location and/or were easily linked. 7. Information on the veteran pages was clear and tmderstandable. 8. Contact information for Veteran Services was easy to find. c. Admissions 9. The online admissions application was easy to find, and was clear and understandable. 10. The application clearly asks individuals to identify as a military member or veteran. 11. When needed the admissions office was easy to locate. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 12. The admissions staff was helpful, able to answer veteran related questions, and understand veteran related procedures. 71 13. Procedures for military experience transfer credits were clear and understandable. 14. The college/university offered veteran specific orientations of information sessions. 15. Overall the admissions process was veteran friendly. d. Enrollment 16. The online course registration process was clear and understandable. 17. The registrar's office was easy to find on campus. 18. Veterans have access to an advisor to help plan, choose proper courses, and enroll in classes. 19. Staff from the registrar's office is familiar with veteran-specific needs. 20. Enrollment deadlines, add/drop periods, and semester schedule were made clear. e. Veteran Services Office 21. The Veterans Services Office was easy to find on campus. 22. The Veterans Services staff were friendly and welcoming, were knowledgeable with all aspects of the GI Bill®. 23. Campus procedures for GI Bill® certification were clear and understandable or were explained. 24. The Veteran Services staff were helpful in giving guidance for registration each semester. 25. Problems with my GI Bill® benefits were resolved in a timely manner. f. Faculty Awareness/Classroom Environment/Campus Life MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 72 26. The college/university offered a (re)integration program to help veterans transition into higher education. 27. Instructors/Professors are familiar with veteran resources on campus. 28. Instructors/Professors interact well with veteran students and honor veterans' confidentiality requests. 29. Instructors/Professors have been trained on what the military experience is like. 30. Military veteran students are treated fairly and respectfully on campus. 31. Instructors/Professors allow veterans to share military experiences when appropriate. 32. Allowances are made for specific veteran seating needs when necessary. 33. Class populations are manageable in size and encourage learning. 34. The college/university has a peer mentoring program providing veteran to veteran support. 35. The college/university has a relationship with Veteran Service Organizations (American Legion, DAV, VFW, etc.). 36. There is an established veteran student organization on campus. 37. The college/university allows the Veterans Administration (VA) to have a presence on campus. 38. The college/university has a "one stop shop" where veterans can go for services. Disabled Veteran Experience Questions and Comments g. Disability Services 1. The Disability Services staff was friendly and welcoming, and understands veteran specific disabilities. MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 2. Disability Services staff understands cognitive difficulties related to PTSD/TBI, and have been trained to counsel veterans with PTSD/TBI. 3. Disability Services helps veterans to deal with the stigma related to being "disabled". 4. Disability Services coordinate with the VA to properly acconnnodate disabled veterans. 5. Classroom acconnnodations are given to veterans with documented PTSD/TBI diagnoses. 6. Test taking and testing location accommodations are given to veterans with documented PTSD/TBI diagnoses. 7. Disability Services staff collaborates well with other campus professionals to educate them on disabled veteran needs. 73 MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE APPENDIXB WEBER STATE UNIVERSITY Institutional Review Board April 29, 2015 Daniel Czech MC 4401 Weber State University Ogden, UT 84408 Daniel, Your project entitled "The Military Veteran Experience in Higher Education" has been reviewed and is approved as written. The project was reviewed as "exempt" because it involves using curriculum and assessments which would normally be used. Subjects are considered adults and may choose not to participate. Informed consent is required for participation. Notification of the study and how data will be reported are appropriate. No individual subject data will be revealed. All subject information will be confidential. Dr. Williams is the chair of the committee who will oversee this study. Anonymity and confidentiality are addressed appropriately, and the type of information gathered could not "reasonably place the subjects at risk of criminal or civil liability or be damaging to the subjects' financial standing, employability, or reputation" (Code of Federal Regulations 45 CFR 46, Subpart D.) You may proceed with your study when district/site approval is given. Please remember that any anticipated changes to the project and approved procedures must be submitted to the !RB prior to implementation. Any unanticipated problems that arise during any stage of the project require a written report to the !RB and possible suspension of the project. A final copy of your application will remain on file with the !RB records. If you need further assistance or have any questions, call meat 626-7370 or e-mail me at lgowans@weber.edu. Sincerely, Linda Gowans, Ph.D. Chair, Institutional Review Board, Education Subcommittee 74 MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE Title of Project: Primary Investigator(s): Approval Number: Reviewer: Date: April 29, 2015 The Military Veteran Experience in Higher Education Daniel Czech 15-ED-088 Linda Gowans, Ph.D. Chair, Institutional Review Board Education Subcommittee COMMITTEE ACTION YOUR PROPOSAL (PROJECT) AND CONSENT DOCUMENTS HA VE BEEN RECEIVED AND CLASSIFIED BY THE HUMAN SUBJECTS IN RESEARCH COMMITTEE AS: _High Risk __ Moderate Risk _X _Low Risk BY THE FOLLOWING PROCESS: _Full board review_ Expedited review_X_Exemption THE PROJECT HAS BEEN: _x Approved __ Not Approved COMMENTS: See Attached Approval Letter Linda Gowans, Ph.D. --- IRB EDUCATION SUBCOMMITTEE CHAIR INVESTIGATOR'S RESPONSIBILITY AFTER COMMITTEE ACTION 75 The federal regulations provide that after the committee has approved your study, you may not make any changes without prior committee approval except where necessary to eliminate apparent immediate hazards to the subjects. Further, you must report to the committee any changes that you make and any unanticipated problems involving risks to subjects or others that arise. 4/29/2015 REVIEW DATE MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 76 APPENDIXC Su rvey R esul tsS > prea ds heet Survey Section Question Strongly Agree Disagree Strongly N/A Total (excluding Number Agree Disagree N/A) a. Overall . . ·· .·.I ••••• . ·:· ' -' . ·. .·· .· . . . Experience . · . . ' . . . . .·· . . • 1 12 12 5 4 0 33 2 11 11 4 7 0 33 3 4 11 5 7 6 27 b. Website . . . . ·. ·.· . . . · . . •. Navigation . ··. . . . . . 4 10 22 0 0 1 32 5 5 19 8 0 1 32 6 5 13 9 3 3 30 7 6 16 4 4 3 30 8 10 18 1 2 2 31 College . ·. . · . c. . . . ' • . Admissions ·.·. . . · . . I . .· . 9 7 22 0 0 4 29 10 6 16 8 2 1 32 11 10 22 1 0 0 33 12 4 17 8 4 0 33 13 6 11 10 5 0 32 14 7 8 10 7 1 32 15 8 15 6 4 0 33 d. Enrollment . I . . ' ': < ·. I . I ' I . Services . .• . · . . .· . . . ·.· . ' . 16 5 19 2 2 4 28 17 9 21 2 0 0 32 18 7 16 7 1 0 31 19 1 12 11 5 3 29 20 7 18 4 3 0 32 e. Veteran Services Office 21 11 17 4 1 0 33 22 12 13 5 2 1 32 23 12 12 5 2 2 31 24 13 12 4 2 2 31 25 9 13 2 2 7 26 MILITARY VETERAN EXPERIENCE 77 f. Faculty Awareness/ Classroom Environment 26 1 11 9 7 5 28 27 3 8 13 6 3 30 28 8 13 4 5 2 30 29 2 5 14 6 6 27 30 6 21 5 1 0 33 31 8 19 3 1 2 31 32 7 13 4 1 8 25 33 11 16 4 2 0 33 34 7 11 8 2 4 28 35 5 14 8 2 3 29 36 5 10 10 7 1 32 37 9 18 2 2 1 31 38 10 8 8 5 1 31 g. Service-connected Disability 1 10 9 1 3 9 23 2 9 6 3 3 11 21 3 9 8 3 3 9 23 4 10 9 1 3 9 23 5 8 7 1 2 14 18 6 10 6 1 2 13 19 7 8 8 2 2 12 20
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1. Einleitung Das Besondere an Wilhelm Heitmeyer ist, dass er uns empirisch erklärt, was wir vorher nur vermutet oder gesagt bekommen haben. Der Sozialwissenschaftler Wilhelm Heitmeyer, Jahrgang 1945, forscht seit Jahrzehnten zu gruppenbezogener Menschenfeindlichkeit und Rechtsextremismus (Universität Bielefeld, o.J.). Bekannt geworden ist er als Gründungsdirektor des Instituts für interdisziplinäre Konflikt- und Gewaltforschung der Universität Bielefeld 1996, wo er bis zu seiner altersbedingten Emeritierung als Direktor fungierte. Seine Langzeitstudie "Deutsche Zustände" zu rechtsextremen Einstellungen in der Gesellschaft und zu gruppenbezogener Menschenfeindlichkeit machen ihn zu einem der "wichtigsten Rechtsextremismus-Forscher der Bundesrepublik" (Laudenbach, 2023).Im folgenden Beitrag soll es um ausgewählte Arbeiten von Heitmeyer gehen. In seinen jüngeren Veröffentlichungen nimmt er die Mechanismen von Krisen und daraus resultierenden Kontrollverlusten als Treiber von autoritären Versuchungen in den Fokus. In Bezug darauf wird in der vorliegenden Arbeit genauer auf Heitmeyers Beitrag zur Erklärung des Erstarkens des "autoritären Nationalradikalismus" eingegangen. Hierunter fällt die Partei "Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)", die den Kern dieses Politiktypus in Deutschland ausmacht.Heitmeyer stellte um die Jahrtausendwende die These auf, der globalisierte Kapitalismus bringe vielfältige Schieflagen mit sich in Form von Desintegration, Abstiegsängsten und Kontrollverlusten. Damals ahnte er noch nichts von den Krisen, die in den folgenden "entsicherten Jahrzehnten" auf uns zukommen und uns vor erhebliche Herausforderungen stellen würden (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 89).Die aufgestellte These rund um soziale, politische und ökonomische Strukturentwicklungen wurde mit individuellen und kollektiven Verarbeitungsmustern gekoppelt und 2022 um Krisen der "Post-9/11"-Ära und Kontrollverluste als Krisenfolgen erweitert. Diese wiederum bilden einen Nährboden für autoritäre Versuchungen, für sogenannte rechte Bedrohungsallianzen als politische Folgen autoritärer Entwicklungen.Die Ergebnisse der Langzeitstudie eignen sich, um das Aufkommen und Erstarken einer autoritär nationalradikalen Partei wie der Alternative für Deutschland zu beleuchten. Heitmeyer ist es, der durch seine Sozialstrukturanalyse das vielzitierte Fünftel (19,6%) der Bevölkerung empirisch nachweisen konnte, das der rechtspopulistisch eingestellten Gruppe in der Bevölkerung mit Einstellungen der gruppenbezogenen Menschenfeindlichkeit zugeordnet werden kann (Schaefer, Mansel & Heitmeyer, 2002, S. 125 f.).Wahlpolitisch blieben diese Teile der Bevölkerung lange unbedeutend. Die Wähler:innen waren meist keiner Partei zugehörig, sie "vagabundierten" zwischen den Parteien von Wahl zu Wahl oder wählten gar nicht; viele harrten in einer "wutgetränkten Apathie". Bis zu dem Jahr, als die AfD auf die politische Oberfläche trat und ab 2015 eine radikale Entwicklung nahm; ein "politisches Ortsangebot" für diese Teile der Bevölkerung ist gefunden (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 113 ff.).Im folgenden wird zuerst eine begriffliche Rahmung des Politiktypus des "autoritären Nationalradikalismus" vorgenommen. Zentrale Schemata der Arbeiten von Wilhelm Heitmeyer sollen beleuchtet werden. Nach diesen Ausführungen wird der Blick auf Krisen und Kontrollverluste und ihre Funktion als Treiber autoritärer Entwicklungen gerichtet. Im letzten Schritt geht es um die Ausprägung des autoritären Nationalradikalismus in Form der AfD.2. Der autoritäre NationalradikalismusUm über Heitmeyers Arbeiten zu schreiben, bedarf es einer Konturierung der von ihm verwendeten Begriffe. Im Folgenden werden die Begriffe des Autoritarismus und der dichotomischen Welt- und Gesellschaftsbilder erklärt, um anschließend den politischen Typus des autoritären Nationalradikalismus von Rechtspopulismus und Rechtsextremismus abzugrenzen und entsprechend zu erläutern. 2.1 AutoritarismusDas Legitimations- und Strukturmuster politischer Macht des Autoritarismus gründet auf einer Beziehung zwischen "Machthaber:innen" in Regierungen, Parteien und anderen Organisationen und "Machtunterworfenen". Unter Machthaber:innen versteht man Amts-, Funktions- und Handlungsträger:innen, während Machtunterworfene Mitglieder, Gefolgsleute oder Anhänger:innen sind (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 31). Abhängig ist diese Beziehung in der sozialen Praxis von der Autorität der Machthabenden und der Reaktion der Unterworfenen.Autorität kann aus Bewunderung, begeisterter Unterstützung, Respekt, Ehrfurcht oder gleichmütiger Duldung aus freien Stücken zugeschrieben werden und gründet in Anerkennung. Jedoch wird Autorität dann autoritär, "[...] wenn Willfährigkeit aufgenötigt, Unterwerfung durch Täuschung bewirkt, Gehorsam durch Drohung oder handgreifliche Gewalt erzwungen wird" (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 32).Eine dominante Rolle spielen Grunderzählungen in der Entwicklung des Autoritären. Hierzu zählen die Bedrohung von Ordnung, die Auflösung von Identitäten, das Zerstören von Hierarchien und Dominanzen, Fantasien vom Untergang des (deutschen) Volkes sowie der Opferstatus aufgrund des Agierens feindlicher Mächte sowohl aus dem Inneren wie von außen (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 35). Diese Kennzeichen der Bedrohung, Auflösung, Zerstörung, des Untergangs etc. haben die Funktion, kollektive Ängste zu schüren. Zugleich sollen so Mobilisierungen in Gang gesetzt und autoritäre Bewegungen und Bestrebungen angetrieben werden (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 35).Frankenberg & Heitmeyer beschreiben die politische Rhetorik des Autoritären als Diskurslogik, die sich vor allem in Wahlpropaganda und programmatischen Erklärungen zeigt. Diese konstruieren manichäische Weltbilder, weisen eine dichotomische Struktur auf und manifestieren sich auf drei Ebenen, wie die folgende Abbildung zeigt. Häufig anzutreffen sind die Gegensätze von Volk vs. Elite, geschlossene vs. offene Gesellschaft, wir vs. die oder Ungleichwertigkeit vs. Gleichwertigkeit. Abbildung 1: Dichotomische Welt- und Gesellschaftsbilder (Quelle: eigene Darstellung nach Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 248)2.2 Dichotomische Welt- und GesellschaftsbilderDiese Gegensätze laufen auf "Entweder-Oder"-Konflikte hinaus, die sich immer aufs "Ganze" beziehen, da es um "Alles" geht (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 275). Der Streitgegenstand wird der Verhandlung oder dem Kompromiss entzogen, ein "Mehr-oder-Weniger" ist nicht möglich. Die von autoritären Bewegungen, Organisationen und Regimen geführten Konflikte zielen demnach nicht auf Verständigung oder Verhandlungen ab. Es geht um "[...] Entscheidungen zugunsten einer rigiden Machtdurchsetzung und Machtsicherung mit möglichst umfassender Verhaltenskontrolle in allen Lebensbereichen der Gesellschaft und den Institutionen des politischen Systems" (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 37).Gesellschaftliche Entwicklungen sind von immer höherer Komplexität und Ambivalenz geprägt. Ebenso nimmt ihre Unübersichtlichkeit zu und sie verändern sich mit zunehmender Geschwindigkeit. In diesem Zuge stehen politische Akteur:innen vor der Herausforderung, ihre Ambitionen und Machtansprüche für die jeweilige Wähler:innenschaft passend aufzubereiten. Hierzu gehört das Anbieten von Welt- und Gesellschaftsbildern, die Unübersichtlichkeit strukturieren, Entschleunigung versprechen und Komplexität reduzieren. Aus diesen Gründen werden von gemäßigten und extremen rechten Bewegungen und Parteien solche Dichotomien verwendet, die das Ordnen der eigenen Gefühlslagen, Erfahrungen und der eigenen Weltsichten erleichtern. 2.3 Populismus und RechtspopulismusPopulismus sieht Heitmeyer als Stil der Mobilisierung, der übergehen kann in eine "machiavellistische Strategie zur Erlangung oder Verteidigung der Macht" und auf marginalisierte Gruppen abzielt. Hinzu kommt häufig eine populistisch etikettierte Rhetorik und schlichte, aber einflussreiche Weltdeutungen, die dazu dienen, Ressentiments zu aktivieren, um eine imaginäre, kollektive Identität zu beschwören. Dies ganz im Sinne eines authentischen Volkes oder "der Nation" gegen Elit:innen, gegen "das System", Minderheiten oder die "Lügenpresse" (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 24).Nach Heitmeyer hat sich eine allgemein akzeptierte Definition von Populismus etabliert, wonach eine Bewegung dann als populistisch charakterisiert werden kann, "[...] wenn ihr die Unterscheidung zwischen dem "wahren" Volk einerseits und den ausbeuterischen, dekadenten, volksverräterischen Eliten andererseits zugrunde liegt" (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 231). Heitmeyer verwendet mittlerweile meist den Begriff autoritär anstelle von populistisch, im Folgenden wird ebenfalls diese Bezeichnung verwendet.Beim Rechtspopulismus prangert Heitmeyer eine "inflationäre Verwendung" ohne wirkliche Trennschärfe an, der keine einheitliche Definition hat, oftmals jedoch als Form des Autoritarismus mit "dünner Ideologie" und als Vergangenheitsorientierung beschrieben wird (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 231). Im Allgemeinen bezeichnet er den Rechtspopulismus als eine Ergänzung des populistischen Grundprinzips "Volk gegen Elite" um eine nationalistische Rhetorik (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 232).Zur These der "dünnen Ideologie" führt Heitmeyer an, dass sich populistische bzw. autoritäre Bestrebungen nicht nur durch ihren Politikstil und einer auf Machterwerb zielenden Strategie auszeichnen, sondern durch ein "Set von Ideen" und einem spezifischen Politik- und Demokratieverständnis, also ein Muster zur Deutung der gesellschaftlichen Wirklichkeit anbieten, das sich nicht nur auf Kritik an Elit:innen und demokratischer Repräsentation beschränkt."Mit der ideologischen Kombination und politischen Handlungsagenda von Antielitismus und Antipluralismus, einer Kultur der unmittelbaren Kommunikation, einem xenophoben Nationalismus und dem Phantasma imaginärer Gemeinschaftlichkeit entfernt sich die Beschreibung des Populismus weit von demokratischen grass roots und nimmt die Deutungsangebote aus dem Lager des Autoritarismus an" (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 25). 2.4 Autoritärer NationalradikalismusDer Einheitsbegriff des Rechtspopulismus als "catch-all-term" wird nach Heitmeyer der sperrigen Realität nicht gerecht und hat viele alternative Benennungen verkümmern lassen. Zudem werden mit Nutzen dieses Begriffes durch Wissenschaft, Politik und Medien Vernebelungstaktiken der politischen Akteur:innen und Bewegungen bedient, da nicht die genauen ideologischen Komponenten ihrer jeweiligen Programme benannt werden. Das Abbilden der vielfältigen Realität muss auch begrifflich differenziert abgebildet werden, was notwendig ist, um "Gegengifte" zu entwickeln. Daher müssen die Begriffe "sperrig und unpoliert" sein (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 105).Der autoritäre Nationalradikalismus bewegt sich zwischen dem Rechtspopulismus und dem gewalttätigen Rechtsextremismus bzw. Neonazismus. Anzumerken ist, dass es sich nicht um eine faschistische Gesinnung handelt, da der italienische Faschismus nicht mit dem Nationalsozialismus identisch ist, in dem der Antisemitismus zentral ist (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 106). Der gewalttätige Rechtsextremismus schreckt viele Wähler:innen oder Sympathisant:innen ab, da er in öffentlichen Räumen situativen Schrecken verbreiten will.Im Gegensatz dazu weist der Rechtspopulismus eine "flache" Ideologie auf und ist mit der dramatisierten Konfliktlinie Volk vs. Elite auf kurzzeitige Erregungszustände ausgerichtet, die über klassische Massenmedien und die sozialen Medien verbreitet werden sollen, wie Abbildung 2 anschaulich darstellt (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 106). Der autoritäre Nationalradikalismus hingegen zielt auf die destabilisierende Veränderung gesellschaftlicher und politischer Institutionen. Zudem bedient er sich dichotomischer Welt- und Gesellschaftsbilder, um destabilisierende Veränderungen erreichen zu können. Abbildung 2: Die Erfolgsspur des autoritären Nationalradikalismus (Quelle: eigene Darstellung nach Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 236; Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 107)Drei markante Charakteristika des autoritären Nationalradikalismus werden in der Sozialforschung hervorgehoben. Diese werden im folgenden erklärt und in Kapitel 6 auf die AfD bezogen:Das Autoritäre zeigt sich in der Betonung einer hierarchischen sozialen Ordnung, in Forderungen nach rigider Führung politischer Institutionen und in einem fundamentalistischen Verständnis des Agierens und Opponierens auf politischer Ebene ohne Kompromisse. Politik und Gesellschaft sollen also entsprechend einem Kontrollparadigma organisiert werden. Dichotomische Gesellschaftsbilder sind maßgebend und operieren als Grundlage für kämpferisch initiierte "Entweder-oder-Konflikte" (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 105).Die Betonung der besonderen Stellung des deutschen Volkes bildet das Nationale des autoritären Nationalradikalismus. Formulierungen und Parolen wie "Deutschland den Deutschen" oder "Deutschland zuerst" unterstreichen eine Überlegenheit gegenüber anderen Völkern, Nationen, ethnischen und religiösen Gruppen und eine neue, "deutsche" Vergangenheitsdeutung wird reklamiert (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 105 f.).Das Radikale, vom ursprünglichen Wortsinn aus dem Lateinischen (radix = Wurzel) her bestimmt, richtet sich gegen die offene Gesellschaft und die liberale Demokratie, die trotz zahlreicher kritikwürdiger Defekte erst durch jahrzehntelange Entwicklungen und Freiheitskämpfe ermöglicht wurden. Ein rabiater und emotionalisierter Mobilisierungsstil wird dazu angewendet, der sich vor allem durch menschenfeindliche Grenzüberschreitungen auszeichnet (vgl. Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 106).Weiterhin ist auf acht Elemente hinzuweisen, die zum Instrumentarium des organisierten autoritären Nationalradikalismus zählen:""Deutsch-Sein" als Schlüsselkategorie und sicherheitsspendender Identitätsanker;Propagandierung dichotomer Weltbilder;Kontrollparadigma als Versprechen einer autoritären sozialen Ordnung;Emotionalisierung gesellschaftlicher Probleme als Kontrollverluste;eskalativer Mobilisierungsstil zur Wiederherstellung von Kontrolle;Forcierung sozialer Vergleichsprozesse zwecks Radikalisierung;Ausnutzen der "Gewaltmembran", um mit bestimmten Begriffen andernorts Gewalt freizusetzen und Legitimationen zu liefern;Konstruktion einer "Opferrolle", um Sympathisanten an sich zu binden und ein Recht auf "Notwehr" zu etablieren" (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 213-276; Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 111).Diese Elemente sind deshalb wichtig zu nennen, da sie als Grundlage für drei wichtige Ziele dienen, die autoritär nationalradikale Parteien verfolgen:Das Besetzen vakanter politischer Themenräume, die von etablierten Parteien in der Vergangenheit übersehen wurden,das Verschieben des Sagbaren, wobei Heitmeyer auf die Theorie des "Overton-Windows" hinweist, sowie drittensdie Normalisierung von Positionen und dadurch die Schaffung neuer Normalitätsstandards (vgl. Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 111 f.).Der autoritäre Nationalradikalismus wird ab Kapitel 5 ausführlich in Bezug auf die Partei "Alternative für Deutschland" dargestellt, die den Kern des autoritären Nationalradikalismus in Deutschland bildet. 2.5 Rechtsautoritär und rechtsextremDen Bezug von Autoritärem zu Rechtsautoritärem und Rechtsextremem begründen Frankenberg & Heitmeyer damit, dass "für die Übersetzung des Autoritären in die aktuellen gesellschaftlichen und politischen Zustände und Entwicklung [...] eine Fokussierung auf das rechtsautoritäre und rechtsextreme Spektrum angebracht" ist (2022, S. 40).In Ermangelung einer umfassenden Definition von Rechtsextremismus, die die Dimension der Gewalt beinhaltet, hat Heitmeyer ein eigenes Konzept vorgelegt (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 40). Dieses akzentuiert die "Kernverbindung" von Ideologie der Ungleichheit und Gewaltakzeptanz. Die Ideologie der Ungleichheit enthält zwei zentrale Dimensionen, wobei die erste gruppenbezogen auf Ungleichwertigkeit ausgerichtet ist und sich später als "gruppenbezogene Menschenfeindlichkeit" ausgeprägt hat:"Sie zeigt sich in Facetten wie nationalistische bzw. völkische Selbstübersteigerung; rassistische Einordnung; soziobiologische Behauptung von natürlichen Hierarchien; sozialdarwinistische Betonung des Rechts des Stärkeren; totalitäre Normverständnisse im Hinblick auf Abwertung des "Anders-Sein" und die Betonung von kultureller Homogenität gegen Heterogenität" (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 40 f.).Diese erste Dimension lässt sich als Vorlage für die späteren Studien "Deutsche Zustände" von Wilhelm Heitmeyer verstehen. Die zweite Dimension der Ideologie der Ungleichheit hat sich als lebenslagenbezogen erwiesen und verweist auf Ausgrenzungsforderungen in Form von kultureller, politischer, rechtlicher, ökonomischer sowie sozialer Ungleichbehandlung von Fremden bzw. "Anderen".Die Gewaltakzeptanz haben Frankenberg & Heitmeyer in vier ansteigend eskalierende "Varianten der Überzeugung unabänderlicher Existenz von Gewalt" kategorisiert, hinter denen die Grundannahme steht, dass Gewalt als "normale Aktionsform zur Regelung von Konflikten" und demnach als legitim angesehen würde (2022, S. 41). Insofern überrascht die Tatsache nicht, dass etwa rationale Diskurse oder demokratische Regelungsformen von sozialen und politischen Konflikten abgelehnt und autoritäre oder gar militaristische Umgangsformen und Stile betont werden (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 41).Die politikwissenschaftliche Forschung zum Rechtsextremismus sieht Heitmeyer fixiert auf politische Symbole, historisch-politische Bezugnahmen, Parteiprogramme und Wahlerfolge. Jedoch reicht dieser Fokus nicht aus, um den Aufschwung rechter und rechtsextremer Kräfte in der Gesellschaft zu erklären – weshalb der "[..] Blick auf die Zusammenhänge zwischen ökonomischen, sozialen und politischen Strukturentwicklungen, den individuellen und kollektiven Verarbeitungen und den politischen Handlungskonsequenzen, wenn ein entsprechendes Handlungsangebot vorhanden ist", geweitet werden muss (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 41).Dies beschreibt das "Analyseschema" (siehe Abbildung 5) im folgenden Kapitel. Fürderhin sollen nicht einzelne Aspekte oder Ereignisse parzelliert betrachtet werden, sondern mittels des "konzentrischen Eskalationskontinuums" die "rechten Bedrohungsallianzen", die bis in die Mitte der Gesellschaft hineinreichen, sichtbar werden. Hierzu hat Heitmeyer 2018 ein weiteres Untersuchungsmodell entwickelt (siehe Abbildung 3). Die beiden Schemata werden folgend beschrieben. Vorangestellt finden sich die zentralen Ausgangspunkte und Thesen von Wilhelm Heitmeyer, auf denen die Schemata beruhen. 3. Heitmeyers Arbeiten: Zentrale Thesen und SchemataWilhelm Heitmeyers Studien knüpften ursprünglich an die mittlerweile vielzitierte Prognose Ralf Dahrendorfs aus 1997 an, dass wir uns "an der Schwelle zum autoritären Jahrhundert" befinden würden, da vieles auf solch eine Entwicklung hindeuten würde (Dahrendorf, 1997; Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 256). Dahrendorf wies vor über 25 Jahren auf das verhängnisvolle Zusammenwirken von Ökonomie, politischer Partizipation und sozialer Integration bzw. Desintegration hin und deutete dieses Spannungsverhältnis als eine "Quadratur des Kreises". Heitmeyer fragt in diesem Zusammenhang, "zu wessen Lasten diese Spannungen gehen würden" und "[...] wie sich unter dem Druck der kapitalistischen Kontrollgewinne die individuellen, kollektiven und institutionellen Kontrollverluste auswirken würden" (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 256).Insbesondere die Langzeitstudie "Deutsche Zustände" zur gruppenbezogenen Menschenfeindlichkeit hat ergiebiges Daten- und Analysematerial erbracht, welches Heitmeyer in seinen Arbeiten verwendet (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 28). Das Projekt mit seinen jährlichen repräsentativen Bevölkerungsbefragungen dient dazu, Langzeitverläufe sichtbar zu machen und eignet sich, um das Aufkommen und Erstarken der autoritär nationalradikalen AfD zu beleuchten.Heitmeyer konnte mit Hilfe der Resultate empirisch Zusammenhänge in zwei Richtungen nachweisen: "für die Unterstützung autoritärer Bewegungen sowie Parteien und gegen verschiedene Gruppen in der Gesellschaft (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 55). Je deutlicher man autoritäre Überzeugungen vertritt, desto eher stimme man fremdenfeindlichen und rassistischen Äußerungen zu, abgeschwächt auch Äußerungen zu Antisemitismus, Heterophobie und klassischem Sexismus sowie der These von Etabliertenvorrechten, also sozialer Dominanz in einem Hierarchiengefüge.So kam Heitmeyer auf das oben erwähnte und seither vielzitierte Fünftel der Bevölkerung (19,6%), das Einstellungen zu gruppenbezogener Menschenfeindlichkeit hegt und als "Machtmaterial" für autoritäre Bewegungen, Parteien und Regime zur Etablierung und Sicherung von autoritären gesellschaftlichen und politischen Machtstrukturen dienen kann (Schaefer, Mansel & Heitmeyer, 2002, S. 125 f.; Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 56). 2001 formulierte Wilhelm Heitmeyer seinen Ausgangspunkt wie folgt:"Die zu verfolgende These geht davon aus, daß [sic] sich ein autoritärer Kapitalismus herausbildet, der vielfältige Kontrollverluste erzeugt, die auch zu Demokratieentleerungen beitragen, so daß neue autoritäre Versuchungen durch staatliche Kontroll- und Repressionspolitik wie auch rabiater Rechtspopulismus befördert werden" (Heitmeyer, 2001, S. 500).Der sogenannte "autoritäre Kapitalismus" entstand durch eine neoliberale Politik rund um die Jahrtausendwende. Weitreichende ökonomische Kontrollgewinne in einerseits gesellschaftlichen Lebensbereichen über soziale Standards von Verdiensten und soziale Absicherung sowie andererseits über Standortentscheidungen waren zu verzeichnen, ergo übergriffig eindringende Prozesse, sodass nun mehr ökonomische Dominanz als Quelle für Kontrolllosigkeit sowie für Anomie gilt.Diese weitreichenden Kontrollgewinne des Kapitals wurden begleitet von ebenso weitreichenden politischen Kontrollverlusten nationalstaatlicher Politik, verbunden mit sozialen Desintegrationsprozessen von Teilen der Bevölkerung. Diese Auswirkungen blieben auf politischer Ebene allerdings solange wahlpolitisch folgenlos, bis ein entsprechendes politisches Angebot auf den Plan trat. In Deutschland erschien dieses Angebot in Form des autoritären Nationalradikalismus der AfD, besonders anschaulich im Jahr 2015 durch die politisch-kulturelle Krise der Flüchtlingsbewegungen und die Spaltung der AfD auf Bundesebene (Heitmeyer, 2022 a, S. 301; Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 261).2018 schreibt Heitmeyer, dass sich dies tatsächlich so ereignet hat und sich empirisch nachweisen lässt: "Ein zunehmend autoritärer Kapitalismus verstärkt soziale Desintegrationsprozesse in westlichen Gesellschaften, erzeugt zerstörerischen Druck auf liberale Demokratien und befördert autoritäre Bewegungen, Parteien und Regime" (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 23). Nachfolgend werden das Modell des konzentrischen Eskalationskontinuums und das Untersuchungsschema beschrieben. 3.1 Konzentrisches EskalationskontinuumMit dem Schema des konzentrischen Eskalationskontinuums soll dargestellt werden, wie autoritäre Eliten auf Legitimation und Partizipation – unter anderem durch die Bürger:innen - angewiesen sind, zumindest so lange, wie sie ein "formales Demokratiesystem westlicher Prägung" aufrecht erhalten wollen oder auch durch soziale, politische und ökonomische Gegenkräfte dazu genötigt werden.Heitmeyer rückt somit die "[...] Entstehung von Eskalationsdynamiken ins Blickfeld, mit denen die zustimmende oder schweigend duldende Beteiligung von erheblichen Teilen der Bevölkerung zu erfassen ist" (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 43). Das konzentrische Eskalationskontinuum dient dazu, die Wucht rechter Bedrohungsallianzen herauszukristallisieren und soll helfen, Gewalt, Gewaltstadien und deren Ursachen besser verstehen zu können.Betrachtet werden Einstellungen und Verhaltensweisen einzelner unverbunden nebeneinander lebender Personen sowie formelle Mitgliedschaften in politischen Parteien oder Vereinigungen. Dem Eskalationsmodell zugrunde liegt das Milieukonzept. Heute sind nicht mehr zwingend physische Kontakte notwendig, da Milieubildung auch im virtuellen Raum stattfindet. Heitmeyer weist darauf hin, dass in diesem Zusammenhang durch ein entstehendes "Wir"-Gefühl gleichzeitig eine abwertende, diskriminierende und ausgrenzende "Die"-Kategorie mitgeliefert wird.Das Schema stellt im "Zwiebelmodell" fünf Stufen dar, die als Einstellungsmuster der gruppenbezogenen Menschenfeindlichkeit in Teilen der Bevölkerung zu verstehen sind, die wiederum autoritären Versuchungen nachgeben und somit den Autoritären Nationalradikalismus der AfD in Deutschland, aber auch Fidesz in Ungarn oder der FPÖ in Österreich begünstigen (Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 43). Die jeweiligen eskalierenden Akteur:innengruppen in den Schalen des Modells werden kleiner, während die Gewaltorientierung im Inneren des Modells zunimmt.Als Kernmechanismus und verbindendes Element der Schalen zueinander werden die verschiedenen Legitimationsbrücken genannt. Fürderhin darf nicht unerwähnt bleiben, dass die Ideologie der Ungleichwertigkeit der kleinste gemeinsame Nenner aller Schichten des Eskalationskontinuums ist. Sie dient als Legitimationsfundus für personen- wie gruppenbezogene Diskriminierung, Ausgrenzung und Gewalt (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 20). Abbildung 3: Konzentrisches Eskalationskontinuum (Quelle: eigene Darstellung nach Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 356; Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 59) Nachfolgend werden die Schichten im Spektrum von rechtem Denken bis zum terroristischen Handeln kurz erläutert: Die äußerste Schicht repräsentiert die gesamte Bevölkerung, in der in unterschiedlichem Ausmaß Einstellungen vertreten werden, je nach gesellschaftlicher Debatte, die der gruppenbezogenen Menschenfeindlichkeit zugeordnet werden können. Diese Einstellungen in der Bevölkerung stellen individuelle Positionierungen dar, die parteipolitisch gebunden, "freischwebend" sein oder auch zwischen Parteien "vagabundieren" können. Diejenigen Teile der Bevölkerung mit menschenfeindlichen Einstellungen sympathisieren zwar maßgeblich mit der AfD, sind an sie jedoch nicht zwangsläufig gebunden und können auch andere Parteien präferieren und wählen (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 60).Das Milieu des autoritären Nationalradikalismus, insbesondere der AfD, das an diese erste Schicht anschließt, präsentiert und propagiert entsprechende Ausgrenzungsstrategien und konstruierte Feindbilder. Die AfD "saugt" die jeweiligen individuellen Einstellungen in der Bevölkerung auf und verdichtet sie zu kollektiven Aussagen, die sie dann wiederum auf die politische Agenda setzt. Sie konzentriert also potenzielle menschenfeindliche Einstellungen in der Bevölkerung, die bereits im Vorfeld durch andere Bewegungen, wie beispielsweise Pegida, verdichtet wurden und bildet für sie den parlamentarischen Arm.Ein weiteres Kennzeichen dieses Milieus ist eine gewisse ideologische Heterogenität, da die Einstellungen von "[...] rechtskonservativen bis hin zu "Übergangspositionen" in das systemfeindliche Milieu des völkischen "Flügels" der AfD" reichen" (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 62). Zudem bemüht sich die AfD um den Anstrich einer "bürgerlichen" Partei, um anschlussfähig an die Mitte der Gesellschaft zu sein.Im systemfeindlichen Milieu ist man parteipolitisch eindeutig im rechtsextremen Milieu verortet, Bezug genommen wird etwa auf die NPD, was auch für die extremistisch-modernistische Identitäre Bewegung gilt. Gemeint sind also rechtsextremistische Bewegungen und neonazistische Kameradschaften, die sich an einschlägigen historischen Vorbildern orientieren. Die gemeinsame Grundlage stellt die Ideologie der Ungleichwertigkeit dar. In diesem Milieu sind bereits Gewaltattitüden verbreitet, Gewalt wird akzeptiert und zur Ausübung ist man situativ bereit (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 62). Jedoch lässt man sich in Form von Parteien durchaus darauf ein, vorübergehend am demokratischen System teilzunehmen.An staatliche Vorgaben passt man sich nur aus strategischen Überlegungen an, indem beispielsweise Demonstrationen angemeldet werden; zugleich ist "Systemüberwindung" das zentrale Ziel: "In der "Parteifantasie" arbeitet man auf den "Volksaufstand" hin, mit dem die Vergangenheit wiederhergestellt werden soll. Es ist ein offener und weitgehend öffentlicher Kampf gegen das verhasste System" (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 64).Diese wenn auch nur vorübergehende Teilnahme am demokratischen System gilt als wesentlicher Unterschied zur vorletzten Schicht, dem klandestinen terroristischen Planungs- und Unterstützungsmilieu. Es schließt jegliche Teilnahme am demokratischen System aus und fasst jede partielle und temporäre Teilnahme als Verrat an der Bewegung auf (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 64). Dieses Milieu gilt als noch radikaler und agiert im Geheimen, oft mit eindeutiger Gewaltoption oder Gewalttätigkeit. Ziel ist der "Umsturz", wenn nötig mit Waffengewalt, weshalb dieser verdeckte Kampf auch aus dem Untergrund unterstützt wird – hier weist Heitmeyer auf die hohe Zahl untergetauchter rechtsextremistischer Straftäter:innen als aufschlussreiches Indiz hin (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 64).Den Kern der "Zwiebel" stellen terroristische Zellen oder Einzeltäter:innen dar. Den Unterschied zur vorherigen Eskalationsstufe stellt das alleinige Merkmal des "Grad(s) der Klandestinität und Vernichtungsrealisierung" dar: "Die einen führen zum Schein noch ein "normales" Alltagsleben, die anderen eine Existenz im Untergrund. Sie beschaffen Waffen, erstellen Todeslisten und bereiten sich auf den Tag X vor. Die einen planen die Vernichtungstaten, die anderen setzen sie um" (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 64).Die fünf Schichten des konzentrischen Eskalationskontinuums werden durch sogenannte "Legitimationsbrücken" zusammengehalten. Diese können dann entstehen, wenn es für gesellschaftliche Entwicklungen keine Lösungen zu geben scheint. Die Entwicklungen werden als Bedrohungen empfunden, für die die "Anderen", beispielsweise Geflüchtete oder Menschen mit anderen Lebensstilen, oder "die da oben", ergo der Staat als Ganzes, demokratische Institutionen oder demokratisch gewählte Entscheidungsträger:innen, verantwortlich gemacht werden. Diese kollektiven Schuldzuweisungen aus Teilen der Bevölkerung können sich dann in gruppenbezogene Menschenfeindlichkeit übersetzen.Zum anderen können sich die Legitimationen aus Verschwörungsideologien, aus Anleihen bei gesellschaftlichen Ordnungen oder historischen ideologischen Konzepten, wie dem Regime des Nationalsozialismus, dessen Ordnung wiederhergestellt werden soll, ergeben. Diese beispielhaft aufgezeigten Legitimationsquellen werden dann im Eskalationskontinuum von den äußeren Schichten weiter nach innen "transportiert (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 65). Heitmeyer hat vier solcher Legitimationsbrücken jeweils zwischen den Stufen bestimmt, wie die folgende Abbildung zeigt:Abbildung 4: Legitimationsbrücken im Eskalationskontinuum (Quelle: eigene Darstellung nach Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 67)1. Das Einstellungsmuster gruppenbezogener Menschenfeindlichkeit in Teilen der Bevölkerung stellt den Ausgangspunkt dar. Es dient dem autoritären Nationalradikalismus der AfD als Legitimation, entsprechende Feindbilder aufzubauen und zuzuspitzen. Wichtig anzumerken ist, dass auch Menschen mit diesen Einstellungen, die nicht die AfD wählen oder mit ihr sympathisieren, zu diesem Legitimationsfundus beitragen. Sie bestimmen das gesellschaftliche Klima mit, aus dem die AfD ihre politische Legitimation "saugt" (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 66 f.).2. Führende Vertreter:innen des autoritären Nationalradikalismus der AfD machen von einer "Gewaltmembran" Gebrauch, was bedeutet, dass eine aggressive Rhetorik die trennende Membran zur nächsten Stufe in gewissen Fällen durchdringen kann und den Weg freilegt für autoritär nationalradikale Bewegungen mit weiteren Aufheizungen – psychische Gewaltandrohungen können von gewalttätigen Akteur:innen in physische Gewalt umgesetzt werden, "[...] ohne dass diese Gewalt den sprachlichen Urhebern und Legitimationsbeschaffern direkt zuzurechnen wäre" (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 271). Durch diese Gewaltmembran werden dem systemfeindlichen Milieu Motive für entsprechende Gewalt geliefert. Zur aggressiven Rhetorik zählen beispielsweise Erzählungen von einem "Bevölkerungsaustausch", Parolen wie "Corona-Diktatur" oder das Beschwören von Untergangsszenarien von Führungskräften der AfD. Auch das Propagieren einer Reinterpretation der deutschen Geschichte insbesondere seitens des völkischen "Flügels" der AfD durch Begriffe wie "Umvolkung" bringt die Gewaltmembran zum Schwingen. Diese Rhetoriken und Untergangsfantasien erzeugen Handlungsdruck (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 67 f.).3. Das systemfeindliche Milieu ist geprägt von verschiedenen Akteur:innen, die sich auf der Schwelle zur Legitimation offener Gewalt gegen Vertreter:innen des Staates und gegen Minderheiten bewegen. Heitmeyer führt als Beispiel die Partei "Die Rechte" an, die den klandestinen terroristischen Planungsmilieus Motivation und Legitimation liefert (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 68).4. Im letzten Schritt stehen die klandestinen Planungsmilieus. Diese errichten im Gegensatz zu den vorherigen Eskalationsstufen keine zusätzlichen ideologischen Legitimationsbrücken. Ihr Ziel sind die "Brücken zur Tat" und das Abschirmen terroristischer Akteur:innen gegen staatliche Verfolgung (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 68).Hieraus resultiert die Schlussfolgerung, dass über verschiedene, eskalierende Stufen jene Teile der Bevölkerung, die explizite autoritäre Einstellungen oder Einstellungen der gruppenbezogenen Menschenfeindlichkeit aufweisen, an politischer Gewalt beteiligt sind; nicht zwangsläufig als Täter:innen im juristischen Sinne, aber als Gehilf:innen und Legitimationshelfer:innen, wie das konzentrische Eskalationskontinuum anschaulich darstellt (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 43). Das Modell des konzentrischen Eskalationskontinuums wird in Kapitel 6 in Bezug auf das Auftreten der AfD näher erläutert und an Beispielen untersucht.3.2 Analyseschema2018 hat Heitmeyer ein weiteres Analyseschema eingeführt. Ausgangspunkt für dieses soziologische Analysekonzept ist die Thematik, dass allein das Vorhandensein von autoritären Versuchungen in Teilen der Bevölkerung nicht ausreicht, um die entsprechenden Inhalte dann auch umgesetzt zu sehen. Hierzu ist es notwendig, dass diese Einstellungen in der Bevölkerung zusammen mit autoritären politischen Angeboten wirken. Insofern, formuliert Heitmeyer, "[...] wäre es zu kurz gegriffen, die Entstehung von autoritären Versuchungen nur aus Fehlentwicklungen des politischen Systems erklären zu wollen" (2018, S. 21).Die erste Ebene des Analyseschemas bildet Interdependenzen zwischen dem ökonomischen, sozialen und politischen Bereich ab. Diese sind als strukturelle Entwicklungen gekennzeichnet. Die unter "individuelle Verarbeitung" genannten Punkte sind von großer Bedeutung. Zentral ist hier, wie diese Erfahrungen bzw. Wahrnehmungen der ersten Ebene seitens der Bevölkerung subjektiv und individuell verarbeitet werden. Die individuellen Verarbeitungsmechanismen werden nach der Konzeption von Heitmeyer durch die "gesellschaftliche Integrations- und Desintegrationsdynamik" geprägt. Hierfür sind die folgenden Faktoren und Fragen von besonderer Bedeutung:"Sicherheit oder Unsicherheit der materiellen Reproduktion, der Anerkennung, des Statusaufstiegs, der Statussicherung bzw. des Statusabstieges, und ein Gefühl der Kontrolle über die eigene Biografie.Wird die eigene Stimme bzw. die Stimme der sozialen, ethnischen oder religiösen Gruppe, der Personen sich zugehörig fühlen, von den Regierenden wahrgenommen oder vielmehr ignoriert?Verlässlichkeit oder Erosion sozialer Beziehungen und Anerkennung der eigenen Identität bzw. der Identität der eigenen Gruppe durch Dritte, um emotionale Zugehörigkeit zu sichern" (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 22).Zentral in Heitmeyers Analyse sind der Kontrollverluste und die Defizite in der Wahrnehmung sowie der subjektive Begriff der Anerkennung. Diese Verarbeitungen haben Auswirkungen auf die Integrations- und Desintegrationsprozesse bzw. auf Anerkennungsverhältnisse, aus welchen im letzten Schritt politische Konsequenzen, also politische Handlungsfolgen, resultieren.Essenziell ist an dieser Stelle die Tatsache, dass die individuellen Verarbeitungen auch als Grund dafür angeführt werden können, weshalb nicht alle Teile der Bevölkerung, die unter einer Art von Desintegrationsdynamik leiden, zwangsläufig für autoritäre Versuchungen anfällig sind und sich wahlpolitisch entsprechend verhalten. Von einer Krisenfolge betroffen zu sein, hat also nicht zwangsläufig das Annehmen eines autoritär nationalradikalen Angebots zur Folge (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 269).Auch die autoritären Bewegungen, Parteien und Regime weisen autoritäre Versuchungen auf, die zu entsprechenden Einstellungen und Entscheidungen führen, die das gesellschaftliche Zusammenleben beeinflussen, da sie Bezug auf die ökonomischen, sozialen und politischen Systeme nehmen (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 21 f.). Dieses Schema wurde von Heitmeyer mit diversen theoretischen Ansätzen angelegt und ausgefüllt mit empirischen Daten (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 252).Das Theoriegeflecht aus mehreren sich ergänzenden disziplinären Zugängen besteht aus der Theorie Sozialer Desintegration von Anhut & Heitmeyer, der Konflikttheorie von Hirschman, der Theorie kapitalistischer Landnahme von Dörre, der Anomietheorie von Thome und dem kontrolltheoretischen Ansatz aus der Sozialpsychologie von Frey & Jonas. Die für das Analysekonzept wichtigsten Charakteristiken dieser Theorien werden in Heitmeyer 2018 und 2022 b ausführlich erklärt. Die genauere Betrachtung dieser Theorien würde den Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit sprengen, weshalb darauf an dieser Stelle verzichtet wird.Abbildung 5: Analyseschema (Quelle: eigene Darstellung nach Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 21)Erfolge rechter Parteien und Bewegungen wären demnach nicht möglich gewesen ohne bestimmte Entwicklungen im sozialen System der Gesellschaft, im politischen System der Demokratie und im ökonomischen System des globalisierten Kapitalismus (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 16). Durch das vorliegende Analyseschema soll verdeutlicht werden, wie autoritärer Kapitalismus in Zusammenwirken mit sozialen Desintegrationsprozessen und politischer Demokratieentleerung als "Ursachenmuster für die Realisierung autoritärer Sehnsüchte" fungiert (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 16 f.).Demokratieentleerung meint, dass ein Teil der Bevölkerung das Gefühl hat, nicht mehr wahrgenommen zu werden und gleichzeitig das Vertrauen schwindet, dass die herrschende Politik bzw. die Regierung willens und fähig ist, soziale Ungleichheit zu bekämpfen. Dies mündet bei Teilen der Bevölkerung in ein Gefühl, Bürger:innen zweiter Klasse zu sein (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 48). Heitmeyer hat 2022 das Analyseschema ergänzt; die Komponenten Krisen und Kontrollverluste wurden entsprechend ausdifferenziert (siehe Abbildung 6). Im Folgenden werden Krisen und Kontrollverluste als besondere Treiber autoritärer Entwicklungen und die dahingehende Erweiterung des Analyseschemas beleuchtet.4. Krisen und Kontrollverluste als Treiber autoritärer EntwicklungenEine Krise wird von Frankenberg & Heitmeyer durch drei Charakteristika definiert. Die bisherigen sozialen, ökonomischen und politischen Routinen zur Bewältigung von Ereignissen greifen nicht mehr und die bis dato vorhandenen Wissensbestände zur Problemlösung reichen nicht aus. Zusätzlich sind die Zustände, wie sie vor diesen Ereignissen herrschten, nicht wieder herstellbar. Darüber hinaus konkurrieren in solch krisenhaften Situationen verschiedene Möglichkeiten zu ihrer Bewältigung, was wiederum anomische Verhaltensunsicherheiten erzeugt (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 45).Die Kombination der drei Kriterien legt nahe, dass "Situationen mit notstandsähnlichem Zuschnitt" mit der Erfahrung von Kontrollverlusten verflochten sind (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 45; Heitmeyer, 2023, S. 253). Insofern verwundert die Tatsache nicht, wenn die These vertreten wird, dass krisenhaft zugespitzte Entwicklungen und Ereignisse nicht allein, jedoch in besonderem Maße als Treiber und Pfade des Autoritären sowie rechtsextremer Aktivitäten zählen (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 251).Von autoritären Regimen wird in Krisen oder notstandsähnlichen Situationen erwartet, dass sie Sicherheit und die Wiedergewinnung der Kontrolle gewährleisten können (2022, S. 44 f.). Zudem werden die Ereignisse von der Bevölkerung individuell je nach Betroffenheit und auch Resilienz unterschiedlich bearbeitet. Diese Verarbeitung wiederum wird unterschiedlich intensiv und nachhaltig in individuelle Befürchtungen sowie kollektive Ängste übertragen. Somit dienen sie dazu, Vorstellungen von Entsicherungen und Kontrollverlusten zu erzeugen, die sich identifizieren lassen als Treiber autoritärer Bestrebungen (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 45 f.).Eine weitere wichtige Unterscheidung in der Konzeption von Krise ist die Unterteilung in zwei Typen von Krise. Der erste Typus, sektorale Krisen, erfasst unterschiedliche Lebensbereiche und Funktionssysteme einer Gesellschaft schlagartig und mit massiven "Funktionsstörungen". Dazu gehören ein zeitlich entzerrtes Auftreten sowie die Lokalisierung in unterschiedlichen Teilbereichen der Gesellschaft. Zudem gab es verschiedene Instrumente, um diese Funktionsstörungen einzudämmen und gravierendere Auswirkungen zu verhindern.In der "Post-9/11"-Ära, in den sogenannten "entsicherten Jahrzehnten" seit Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts, werden nach Heitmeyer vor allem drei – mit 9/11 als religiös-politische Krise vier - verschärfte Gefahrenlagen als sektorale Krisen identifiziert. Dazu zählt ab 2005 die Einführung von Hartz IV als eine sektorale, soziale Krise für gewisse Teile der Bevölkerung, die mit Statusängsten oder auch mit sozialem Abstieg konfrontiert waren. Weiter ist ab 2008/2009 die weltweite Banken- und Finanzkrise zu nennen, die die "systemrelevante" Finanzökonomie ins Wanken brachte mit Ausstrahlungseffekten auf das Gesamtsystem als ökonomisch-politische Krise. Fürderhin wird die sogenannte "Flüchtlingskrise" 2015/2016 als sozial-kulturelle bzw. kulturell-politische Krise angesehen, die das politisch-administrative System prägte (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 46; Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 255).Der zweite Typus bezieht sich auf systemische Krisen. Sie erfassen das gesamte Gesellschaftssystem in sich zuspitzenden Gefahrenlagen. Als langsame bzw. schleichende systemische Krise kann die Klimakrise angesehen werden, als "schnelle" systemische Krise die COVID-19 Pandemie. Hier werden die Potenziale für autoritäre Entwicklungen besonders offen sichtbar, da zahlreiche "Einhegungsinstrumente" nicht greifen, wodurch politische, individuell-biografische und kollektive Kontrollverluste auftreten, die politisch instrumentalisiert und mit Verschwörungstheorien und Wahnvorstellungen verbunden werden können (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 46 f.). Krisen lösen je nach Gefahrenlage individuelle und kollektive Befürchtungen aus, die sich in der Vorstellung einer "kollektiven Hilflosigkeit" verdichten können.In diesem Zusammenhang stellt sich die Frage nach Krisenängsten, ob und wie sie zu Treibern autoritärer Entwicklungen werden können. Ängste, unabhängig davon, ob eingebildet oder realistisch, ob auf Wissen oder Unwissen beruhend, lassen sich schwerlich von einer politischen Klasse, von Unternehmen oder dem freien Markt abfangen. Je mehr sich Gefahrenlagen häufen und sich Wahrnehmungen von Kontrollverlusten sowie Unsicherheiten ausbreiten, fallen auch Rechtsprechung und Verfassung als Orientierungsmedien aus und auch Wissenschaften können diese nicht mit der Lieferung von Begleitgewissheit neutralisieren.In solchen Situationen "[...] mutieren selbst Realängste, die vor greifbaren, konkreten Gefahren warnen, zu frei flottierenden, allfälligen Befürchtungen, die jede Risikoeinschätzung verhindern und irrationale Rettungsbedürfnisse wecken" (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 53). Diese Situationen können dann von autoritären Bewegungen, Organisationen und Regimen ausgebeutet werden, indem zunächst Ängste geschürt und im zweiten Schritt die Anhänger:innen mit wahnhaften Rettungsphantasien "versorgt" werden. Alexander Gaulands Aussage, "Wir werden uns unser Land und unser Volk zurückholen", liefert ein entsprechendes prominentes Beispiel für das Versprechen, die Kontrolle wieder herzustellen (Reuters Staff, 2017; Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 53; Nickschas, 2023).Eine Annahme von Heitmeyer & Heyder lautet hier, dass die Faktoren der Standortlosigkeit und Kontrollverluste Autoritarismus und gruppenbezogene Menschenfeindlichkeit bestärken. Eine Variante zur Wiederherstellung von Stabilität stellt die Demonstration von Überlegenheit dar, die durch autoritäre Aggression ausgeübt werden kann. Um wirklich Überlegenheit demonstrieren zu können, muss diese möglichst risikoarm sein; dies ist dann gegeben, wenn besonders schwache, machtlose Gruppen als Gegner:innen ausgewählt werden (Heitmeyer & Heyder, 2002, S. 62). Empirisch stehen Abstiegsängste in einem signifikanten Zusammenhang mit einerseits Kontrollverlust-Situationen und andererseits der Abwertung schwacher Gruppen:"Wenn jemandem das eigene Leben außer Kontrolle gerät (oder zu geraten scheint), kann das Panik erzeugen. Zur Panikbekämpfung erfolgt dann eine Selbstaufwertung, die gleichzeitig die Abwertung von ungleichwertig markierten Gruppen bedeutet (Flüchtlinge, Migranten, Langzeitarbeitslose etc.)" (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 109).Die individuellen Verarbeitungsmuster von Krisen und (gefühlten) Kontrollverlusten lassen sich durch entsprechende autoritäre Angebote von "rechtspopulistischen Mobilisierungsexperten" – mittels scharf konturierter Feindbilder und Kontrollversprechen - politisch aufladen und bedienen zur vermeintlichen "Wiederherstellung von Ordnung" (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 106).2022 stützt Heitmeyer also die oben erwähnte These von Krisen als besondere Treiber autoritärer Entwicklungen und rechtsextremer Aktivitäten, indem er formuliert, dass der Blick auf Veränderungen in Richtung autoritärer Entwicklungen in gesellschaftlichen und politischen Verläufen geweitet werden soll, die unter verstärktem Einfluss zeitlich verdichteter Krisen stattfinden (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 251). Das soziologische Analysekonzept von 2018 wird entsprechend angepasst um die zwei zentralen Eskalationstreiber Krisen und Kontrollverluste bzw. "Kontrollverluste als Krisenfolgen" (siehe Abbildung 6).Dies geht aus der Abbildung insofern deutlich hervor, als in die Strukturentwicklungen der ökonomischen, sozialen und politischen Dimension "[...] verschiedene Krisen mit unterschiedlichen Auswirkungen "hineingewirkt" und Einfluss genommen haben auf die individuellen psychologischen und sozialen Verarbeitungen, die wiederum mit Kontrollverlusten durchsetzt waren – immer auch je nach Krisenbetroffenheit" (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 252 f.). Hierdurch entstanden durch das generelle Bedürfnis nach Realitätskontrolle Handlungsoptionen, die mehrfach variieren und auch autoritäre Versuchungen bzw. Gefahren beinhalten können.Abbildung 6: Analyseschema, erweitert und angepasst (Quelle: eigene Darstellung nach Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 21; Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 254)Fürderhin ist anzufügen, dass sich Kontrollverluste in Krisen verschiedenartig ausdrücken und sich Verhaltensmöglichkeiten zur Realitätskontrolle, also zur Lösung von Problemen, massiv verengen, insbesondere in systemischen Krisen. Individuelle Suchbewegungen setzen ein, um das grundlegende Bedürfnis nach Realitätskontrolle zu befriedigen. Diese Suchbewegungen schließen politische Suchbewegungen nach autoritären Akteur:innen mit ein, die die Wiederherstellung von Kontrolle durch Reduktion der Krisenkomplexität versprechen (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 256).Krisen und Kontrollverluste treten daher als Treiber autoritärer politischer sowie gesellschaftlicher Entwicklungspfade in Erscheinung, da indes eine kritische Masse entstanden ist, die nicht mehr in der Lage ist, ihr zentrale Bedürfnis nach Realitätskontrolle im "bisher gewohnten Maße" zu realisieren. Genau das bieten autoritäre Akteur:innen im Gegensatz zur abnehmenden Kapazität liberaler Demokratien, geeignete Lösungen schnell zu finden und die Kontrolle wiederherzustellen (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 257). Zudem ist diese versprochene Wiederherstellung keine Wiederherstellung des vorhergehenden Prä-Krisenzustandes, "[...] sondern eine autoritäre Veränderung von Kontrolle und damit auch veränderte ökonomische, soziale, kulturelle und politische Verhältnisse" (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 257).Als Indiz sieht Heitmeyer zwei Mechanismen, die besonders hervorstechen: Einerseits die Ambivalenz, dass zahllose Widersprüche zunehmen, und andererseits die Ambiguität, dass zunehmende Komplexität von modernen Gesellschaften gepaart sind mit uneindeutigen Situationen und Zukünften. Ambivalenz- und Ambiguitätstoleranz kristallisieren sich also als unabdingbar heraus, um autoritären Versuchungen nicht nachzugeben."Denn wenn Sitationen [sic] oder auch die Anwesenheit von fremden Menschen als unberechenbar oder unkontrollierbar wahrgenommen werden, dann reagieren Personen, deren Ambiguitätstoleranz niedrig ist, mit vereinfachten Weltsichten oder Stereotypen, um wieder Ordnung, Struktur und Kontrolle zu erreichen" (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 80).Hinzu tritt das Verschwimmen von gesellschaftlichen Koordinaten, die eigentlich als Vergewisserungen der jeweils eigenen Position in der Gesellschaft dienen, welches die Suchbewegungen nach politischen Akteur:innen aktiviert, die vorgeben, Widersprüche zu lösen, Unklarheiten in Klarheiten verwandeln und Kontrolle wiederherzustellen versprechen (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 109 ff.; Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 258 f.).Hieraus könnte die Folgerung gezogen werden, dass das Potenzial von autoritären Versuchungen in der Moderne angelegt sei: "Ambivalenzen und Ambiguitäten als Grundparadigma der Moderne entfalten unter dem Druck von Krisen und damit verbundenen Kontrollverlusten eine neue Wucht, die ins Autoritäre drängt" (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 259). Beispielsweise ist die erwähnte "Entweder-Oder" Logik im Vergleich zu "Mehr-oder-weniger" darauf angelegt, Ambivalenzen und Ambiguitäten zu beseitigen. "Das Autoritäre dient dann als Strategie zur Reduzierung von ökonomischer, sozialer und politischer Komplexität – und gleichzeitig von Freiheitsräumen" (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 259).Heitmeyers Analysen zeigen, dass die Fähigkeiten zum Aushalten von Ambiguitäten und zum Umgang mit Ambivalenzen über zukünftige soziale, politische und ökonomische Entwicklungspfade in Teilen der Bevölkerung abnehmen. Dies ist passgenau für das Angebot vonseiten der autoritär-nationalradikalen Akteur:innen mit ihren dichotomischen Welt- und Gesellschaftsbildern (siehe Kapitel 2.2); das Angebot eignet sich hervorragend für mobilisierende Ideologien und rhetorische Eskalation (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 246 f.).Erfolge rechter Parteien und Bewegungen wären demnach also nicht möglich gewesen ohne bestimmte Entwicklungen im sozialen System der Gesellschaft, im politischen System der Demokratie und im ökonomischen System des globalisierten Kapitalismus (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 16). Konkreter ist es das Zusammenwirken eines autoritären Kapitalismus, sozialer Desintegrationsprozesse und politischer Demokratieentleerung als Ursachenmuster für die "Realisierung autoritärer Sehnsüchte" (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 17).5. Die Partei "Alternative für Deutschland"Mit der inhaltlichen Neuausrichtung der vormals liberal-konservativen, eurokritischen Partei ab 2015 sowie mit dem immer weiter um sich greifenden Einfluss von rechtsextremistischen Akteur:innen innerhalb der AfD hält Heitmeyer es nicht mehr für angemessen, die AfD als rechtspopulistisch zu "verharmlosen", noch die Partei als vollständig rechtsextrem oder neonazistisch zu bezeichnen (Heitmeyer, 2022 a, S. 302; Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 265 f.; Heitmeyer & Piorkowski, 2023). Mit der herkömmlichen Typologie sei die AfD, als Typ einer neuen Partei, nicht zu beschreiben. Ebenso reichen die bisherigen Begriffe und Kategorien nicht aus, um "analytische Klarheit" über Zustand und Entwicklung der AfD zu gewinnen (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 233).Seit dieser Neuausrichtung zieht die AfD Teile der Bevölkerung an, die unter den oben beschriebenen Krisen Kontrollverluste wahrnehmen oder empfinden und eine Wiedererlangung der Kontrolle forcieren. Das Autoritäre ist dann ein Weg zur Realitätskontrolle. Insofern lässt sich deutlich machen, dass die AfD nicht der Grund für die Entstehung von autoritären Versuchungen in der Bevölkerung ist. Diese autoritären Einstellungsmuster "schlummern" in Teilen der Bevölkerung bereits über einen längeren Zeitraum als Gefahrenpotenzial für die offene Gesellschaft (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 113):"Ein Zwischenfazit zum Zusammenwirken von strukturellen Entsicherungen und individuellen Verunsicherungen zeigt, dass aufgrund der Krisen und ihrer Verarbeitungen, aufgrund von veränderten Lebensumständen und von Verschiebungen der gesellschaftlichen Koordinaten in entsicherten Zeiten bei Teilen der Bevölkerung ein erheblicher "Vorrat" an gruppenbezogen-menschenfeindlichen Einstellungen existiert, an die autoritäre politische Akteure bloß noch anzuknüpfen brauchten" (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 117).Dies bedeutet, dass die Erfolgsvoraussetzungen des autoritären Nationalradikalismus der AfD eine längere Vorgeschichte haben, die in den letzten Jahrzehnten geformt und vorangetrieben wurden durch neue Entwicklungen des kapitalistischen Systems. Die Wähler:innen der AfD waren zuvor Wechselwähler:innen oder wählten gar nicht (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 115). Sie verharrten dann in "wutgetränkter Apathie", was folgenlos blieb für die Politik, da diese Teile der Bevölkerung keinen wahlpolitischen Ausdruck fanden.Dieser in der Bevölkerung existierende Autoritarismus, der laut Heitmeyer "[...] vagabundierte, mal auf diese, mal auf jene im Bundestag vertretene Partei setzte oder aber gar nicht offen zutage trat, sondern in der politischen Apathie verharrte [...]" (2018, S. 237), hat durch das Aufkommen der Partei "Alternative für Deutschland" und ihren autoritären Nationalradikalismus ein neues politisches "Ortsangebot" bekommen. Hinsichtlich des oben beschriebenen Zwischenfazits lässt sich konstatieren, dass es der AfD offensichtlich gelungen ist, "[...] Personen aus ihrer individuellen Ohnmacht herauszuholen und mit kollektiven Machtfantasien auszustatten. Dazu gehört es auch, gruppenbezogen-menschenfeindliche Einstellungen zu kanalisieren und gegen schwache Gruppen zu richten" (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 116).In diesen Prozessen ist die Ideologie der Ungleichwertig eingelagert und wird genutzt, um sich selbst aufzuwerten durch Abwertung und Ausgrenzung der vermeintlich "Anderen". Für die sogenannte "rohe Bürgerlichkeit" entstehen neue Anschlussmöglichkeiten. Unter diesem Begriff verbirgt sich keine soziale Klassenzugehörigkeit, sondern es handelt sich um eine verachtende Haltung gegenüber Schwächeren, geäußert in einer rabiaten Rhetorik und gepaart mit einer Ideologie, in der bestimmte Gruppen als ungleichwertig angesehen werden, während sich die eigentlichen autoritären Haltungen hinter einer dünnen Schicht zivilisiert-vornehmen, also bürgerlichen äußeren Umgangsformen, verbergen (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 310; Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 273).6. Der autoritäre Nationalradikalismus der AfDSo folgert Heitmeyer, dass die AfD vorrangig für jenes Publikum attraktiv ist, "[...] das sich einerseits von den flachen Sprüchen rechtspopulistischer Akteure, die nur auf schnelle Erregungszustände fixiert sind, nichts verspricht, und sich andererseits von der Brutalität des Rechtsextremismus distanziert, um seine Bürgerlichkeit zu unterstreichen" (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 235). Er weist zurecht auf ihre "bürgerliche Patina" hin, die die AfD für viele gesellschaftliche Gruppen wählbar macht (Heitmeyer & Piorkowski, 2023).Vor diesem Hintergrund überrascht der empirische Befund nicht, dass die bereits benannten 19,6 % der Bevölkerung mit Einstellungen zu gruppenbezogener Menschenfeindlichkeit sich selbst in der "politischen Mitte" einordnet, weshalb sich die "bürgerliche Patina" für die AfD als unentbehrlich erweist (Schaefer, Mansel & Heitmeyer, 2002, S. 132 f.).Die neue begriffliche Rahmung dient dazu, unterschiedliche inhaltliche und formale Ebenen zusammenzufassen, wie prägende Einstellungsmuster, der Mobilisierungsstil sowie zentrale programmatische Aussagen zu "bewegenden Themen" (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 234). Daher ordnet Heitmeyer die AfD als autoritäre nationalradikale Partei ein, die gleichzeitig als Kern des autoritären Nationalradikalismus in Deutschland fungiert. Im Folgenden wird das Agieren der Partei als Protagonistin des autoritären Nationalradikalismus anhand der in Kapitel 2.4 erklärten Charakteristika erläutert:Als autoritär wird sie charakterisiert, da das Kontrollparadigma grundsätzlich ihre Vorstellungen von Politik sowie Gesellschaft durchzieht. Beispiele sind Forderungen nach einer streng hierarchisch organisierten sozialen Ordnung sowie nach rigider Führung in politischen Institutionen. Auch beruht das Verständnis von Politik und Gesellschaft wesentlich auf den Kategorien "Kampf und Konflikt", womit dichotomische Gesellschaftsbilder und strenge Freund-Feind-Schemata einhergehen (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 234).Als national wird sie aufgrund der "[...] Betonung der außerordentlichen Stellung des deutschen Volkes" bezeichnet (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 234). Hinzu kommt auch die Beanspruchung einer "neuen deutschen" Vergangenheitsdeutung sowie eines Überlegenheitsanspruchs gegenüber anderen Nationen oder ethnischen und religiösen Gruppen (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 235).Das radikale Moment liegt in der Bekämpfung der offenen Gesellschaft und dem Ziel, die liberale Demokratie grundlegend umzubauen. Somit positioniert sich die Partei gegen zwei zentrale politisch-gesellschaftliche Errungenschaften. Hierzu dient ein rabiater und emotionalisierter Mobilisierungsstil der AfD, der mit menschenfeindlichen Grenzüberschreitungen arbeitet (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 235).Die AfD hat die Destabilisierung gesellschaftlicher und politischer Institutionen zum Ziel, was entscheidend für die Erfolgsgeschichte der Partei ist, es geht um Militär, Polizei, Gerichte, Gewerkschaften, Rundfunkräte, politische Bildung, Theater oder auch Feuerwehrverbände (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 107). Hierin besteht nach Heitmeyer die eigentliche Gefahr. Das Fiasko rund um die Wahl des Ministerpräsidenten in Thüringen 2020 zeigt, dass mittlerweile auch das parlamentarische System von der forcierten Destabilisierung betroffen ist (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 107). Der autoritäre Nationalradikalismus der AfD und das Agieren der Partei soll im folgenden exemplarisch an zwei Krisen der vergangenen Jahre behandelt werden.Die Fluchtbewegungen ab 2015 bezeichnete Alexander Gauland als "Geschenk" für seine Partei, die AfD (Decker, 2022). In der Tat diente sie AfD und PEGIDA, um Personen, die vorrangig unter Anerkennungsdefiziten litten, mittels dichotomischer Weltbilder und der Emotionalisierung sozial-kultureller Probleme zu instrumentalisieren. Der anhaltende Erfolgsmechanismus von Parteien und Bewegungen wie AfD und PEGIDA besteht demnach darin, Anerkennungsprobleme zu bearbeiten und so Selbstwirksamkeit erfahren zu lassen. Als (potenzielle) Wähler:in würde man wahrgenommen werden und dies ließ Handlungsbereitschaften entstehen, die einerseits autoritäre Ausrichtungen entwickelten und andererseits themengebunden immer wieder neu aktiviert werden können (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 275). Dies ist bei dem bereits genannten "Entweder-Oder"-Mechanismus der Fall, da es um "Alles" geht und Kompromisse von vornherein ausschließt.Weiter führt Heitmeyer aus, dass die Verbindungen von einem systemischen Krisentypus, wie beispielsweise der COVID-19-Pandemie, mit einer "Entweder-Oder"-Konfliktstruktur gesellschaftliche Entwicklungen begünstigen, die zwar nicht die Gesellschaft spalten, jedoch asymmetrisch polarisieren zwischen einer Bevölkerungsmehrheit und einer Minderheit (Beispiel: Geimpfte vs. Impfgegner:innen). In solchen Konstellationen enthüllt sich das Zusammenwirken und gemeinsame Auftreten der aufgeführten Mechanismen als äußerst gewaltanfällig (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 275 f.).Im Jahr 2015 war der "Kampf um die Opferrolle" ein zentraler Mechanismus der AfD, um die Mobilisierung gegenüber Geflüchteten und staatlicher sowie gesellschaftlicher Integrationspolitik voranzubringen. Entsprechend entstanden Kampfbegriffe wie "Umvolkung" oder das Propagieren des "Untergangs der deutschen Kultur". Die Opferrolle kann nach Heitmeyer als Schlüsselkategorie interpretiert werden, "[...] denn wer [sich] in der öffentlichen Wahrnehmung glaubhaft als Opfer darstellen kann, schafft damit eine zentrale "moralgetränkte" Kategorie, um Widerstand als Notwehrrecht einschließlich Gewalt zu legitimieren" (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 266). Insofern gilt der Opferstatus als eines der wichtigsten Instrumente, um Anhänger:innen an sich zu binden.Im Verlauf der COVID-19-Pandemie verkehren sich die Verhältnisse in den digitalen Medien, auf radikalisierten Demonstrationen und in der öffentlichen Debatte, was auch darauf zurückzuführen ist, dass der Mechanismus einer veränderten "Täter-Opfer"-Konstruktion sich ausbreitet. Neue Gelegenheitsstrukturen und Mobilisierungsaktivitäten werden in Figuren von "Freiheitskämpfern" ausgebaut und radikalisiert.Während der sogenannten "Flüchtlingskrise" waren es vor allem männliche Geflüchtete, die in der öffentlichen Wahrnehmung als bedrohliche Täter, die Verbrechen wie Vergewaltigungen und Tötungen begehen, dargestellt wurden. Staatliche Institutionen ließen sie "gewähren" im Sinne einer bevorstehenden "Umvolkung" (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 266). In der COVID-19-Krise trat der Staat als Haupttäter auf: Die Bevölkerung wurde in den Lockdown getrieben, massiven Freiheitsbeschränkungen unterworfen und Ungeimpfte – ob Gegner:in oder nur Zweifelnde – wurden durch eine "Corona-Diktatur" in die Knie gezwungen.In diesem Strukturwandel wirken Verschwörungstheorien passgenau auf ideologische Konzeptionen ein, die an Krisen sowie an Kontrollverluste andockt. Verschwörungstheorien bilden hier als quasi-religiöses, glaubensbasiertes Kampfinstrument eine Art Ersatzlösung für die in der Moderne verloren gegangenen Gewissheiten und markieren gleichzeitig Feindgruppen für autoritäre politische "Lösungen", meist auch antisemitisch aufgeladen.Im Sinne des angeführten konzentrischen Eskalationskontinuums sind es unter anderem solche Parolen und Kampfbegriffe, die als begrifflich "notwehrrelevante" Legitimationsbrücken dienen. So wurden während der COVID-19-Pandemie von parlamentarisch einflussreichen Positionen weitere eskalationsorientierte Handlungsweisen beflügelt (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 267). Die bisher aufgeführten Mechanismen und Strukturen fungieren demnach also als Bestandteile von Radikalisierungsprozessen. Diese wiederum bilden die Voraussetzungen für das Aufkommen von physischer Gewalt, von Körperverletzungen bis hin zu rechtsterroristischen Vernichtungstaten. Um diese Wirkung aufzuzeigen, soll folgend das Agieren der AfD anhand des oben beschriebenen Eskalationskontinuums verdeutlicht werden.In den "Schalen" des "Zwiebelmusters" wird, wie oben erläutert, die Gewaltorientierung größer, während die eskalierenden Akteur:innengruppen kleiner werden. Als Kernmechanismus werden die verschiedenen Legitimationsbrücken angeführt. In der äußersten, der größten Schale, finden sich feindbildliche autoritäre Einstellungsmuster in Teilen der Bevölkerung gegenüber dem Staat als Ganzes und generell demokratischer Politik. Diese liefern die entsprechenden Legitimationen für das Auftreten und Agieren des autoritären Nationalradikalismus der AfD.Zu Beginn der Pandemie forderte die AfD zunächst besonders harte Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der Ausbreitung, sie blieb bei ihrem Stil der Emotionalisierung politischer und sozialer Probleme inklusive dem autoritären Kontrollparadigma. Da hiermit keine Zustimmungserweiterungen von potenziellen Wähler:innen gewonnen werden konnten, wurde eine radikale Richtungsänderung ins Gegenteil vollzogen. Dies führt Heitmeyer an, um zu verdeutlichen, "[...] dass es der Partei nicht um sachbegründete Prinzipien, sondern um opportunistische Nutzenkalküle zur Ausbreitung von Zustimmungen bzw. Verfestigungen der Wählerschaft geht – und um die Straße" (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 276). Insofern mussten Parolen geprägt werden, wie der Begriff der "Corona-Diktatur", dem Selbststilisieren als "Freiheitskämpfer:innen" oder dem Verbreiten von Verschwörungsideologien wie des "Great Resets" (Siggelkow, 2023).So trat die AfD im Herbst und Winter 2021/2022 als wesentlicher Treiber der Corona-Proteste auf und baute gleichzeitig mit diesen Parolen, wie bereits ab 2015 in Zusammenhang mit der Krise um die Flüchtlingsbewegungen, gezielt Legitimationsbrücken für ohnehin schon mit Gewalt operierende rechtsextremistische Gruppen (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 277). Diese Gruppierungen können sich durch diese Parolen auf eine Art gewaltlegitimierendes "Notwehrrecht" berufen, um gegen eine "Diktatur" zu agieren, verbunden mit "Umsturzfantasien".Heitmeyer führt weiter aus, dass diese Gruppen sich öffentlich in Demonstrationen bewegen und gleichzeitig klandestine rechtsterroristische Kleingruppen bedienen, "[...] die unter anderem aus Misserfolgen gegen die staatlichen Ordnungsmächte dann Legitimationen zum Umsturz des Systems ziehen" (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 277). Aus diesem Mechanismus eröffnet sich, was Heitmeyer durch das konzentrische Eskalationskontinuum eindrucksvoll darstellen kann, dass schlussendlich Teile der Bevölkerung durch die verschiedenen "Schalen" hindurch zu den Legitimationslieferant:innen zählen, auf die sich Gewaltakteur:innen berufen, wenn sie sich auf "das Volk" beziehen (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 277).Die Mechanismen verweisen insgesamt auf Bedrohungen der liberalen Demokratie und der offenen Gesellschaft. Weiter führt Heitmeyer an, dass staatliche Kontrollapparate sowie die Politik samt Appellen oder Ankündigungen der "wehrhaften Demokratie" nicht in der Lage sind, mehrere dieser Mechanismen in ihren Wirkungen "in den Griff zu bekommen". Die aufgezeigten Mechanismen, die bereits während der Krise der Flüchtlingsbewegungen und der Corona-Pandemie gewirkt haben, sind etabliert und werden auch weiterhin wirken.Die so genannte "3K-Trias" - Krisen, Konfliktstruktur und Kontrollverluste - gilt mittlerweile als etabliert und wirkt als wirkungsvoller Zusammenhang für autoritäre Entwicklungen. Die zukünftigen Krisenthemen werden wechseln, jedoch bleiben die gesellschafts- und demokratiezerstörerischen Mechanismen bestehen und können durch autoritär-nationalradikale Akteur:innen immer wieder neu themenbezogen aktiviert und emotional aufgeladen werden (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 277).7. Fazit & AusblickHeitmeyers Arbeiten bilden einen Meilenstein in der empirischen Forschung zu Einstellungen gruppenbezogener Menschenfeindlichkeit und zu rechten Einstellungen in der Bevölkerung. Er wies bereits zu Beginn seiner Studien im Jahr 2001 darauf hin, dass ein globalisierter Kapitalismus zu politischen und sozialen Kontrollverlusten führen könne, die mit Demokratieentleerung und einem Erstarken des rabiaten Rechtspopulismus einhergehen.Anhand der Ergebnisse seiner langjährigen Forschung, unter anderem der Langzeitstudie zu den "deutschen Zuständen", konnte er empirisch nachweisen, dass knapp 20 % der Bevölkerung autoritäre Einstellungen haben (Schaefer, Mansel & Heitmeyer, 2002, S. 125 f.). Diese Einstellungen "schlummerten" in diesen Bevölkerungsteilen und fanden politisch bis zum Aufkommen der AfD keine sonderliche Beachtung. Sie "vagabundierten" zwischen den Parteien - meist zwischen den Volksparteien CDU/CSU und der SPD - oder verharrten in einer "wutgetränkten Apathie" und machten von ihrem Wahlrecht keinen Gebrauch (Schaefer, Mansel & Heitmeyer, 2002, S. 127 f.).Die strukturellen Ursachen des autoritären Kapitalismus, also Transformationsprozesse in ökonomischen Strukturen samt den Krisen in der "Post-9/11"-Ära führen zu Veränderungen im sozialen Bereich, wie individuelle Verarbeitungsprozesse der Krisenfolgen in Form von Abstiegsängsten oder Anerkennungsverlusten, also soziale Desintegrationserfahrungen bzw. Desintegrationsgefährdungen. In Kombination mit den damit einhergehenden Kontrollverlusten sehnen sich Teile der Bevölkerung nach einem krisensicheren, kollektiven kulturell-politischen Identitätsanker und nach der "Wiederherstellung der Ordnung" (Heitmeyer, 2022 a, S. 325). Dies schafft günstige Gelegenheitsstrukturen für die AfD, die sich 2015 inhaltlich radikal neu ausrichtete und als autoritär nationalradikales Angebot wahlpolitisch von diesen Entwicklungen profitierte. Durch ihre Fokussierung auf die kulturelle Dimension hat die Partei die Möglichkeit erhalten, "[...] soziale Kontrollverluste in Versprechungen zur Wiederherstellung von politischer Kontrolle zu übersetzen" (Heitmeyer, 2022 a, S. 325).Die Frage nach dem weiteren Verlauf liegt auf der Hand. Hier spricht Heitmeyer von "Zukünften" in einer Zeit, in der viele Menschen auf tiefgreifende Verunsicherungen seit 2001 mit einer Sehnsucht nach Ordnung, Kontrolle und Sicherheit reagiert haben, die von dem autoritären Nationalradikalismus der AfD bedient wird (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 281). Zu den Entsicherungen der sozialen Zustände der letzten Jahrzehnte gesellt sich nun eine "Unübersichtlichkeit möglicher Zukünfte". Klar ist, dass die Routinen zur Bewältigung politischer, ökonomischer und sozialer Probleme und Krisen nicht länger funktionieren und es kein Zurück zu den Zuständen davor geben wird.Nach Heitmeyer muss die Frage nach der Resilienz demokratischer Einstellungen und Gegenevidenzen zum grassierenden Autoritarismus auf der Ebene der Akteur:innen angesetzt werden, bei der Bürger:innenschaft. Jedoch beschreibt er sie, die in Krisen sonst durchaus wehrhaft und spontan auf Herausforderungen reagierten und heute mehr denn je gefragt seien, als erschöpft, auch wenn in der Mehrheit der europäischen Staaten bisher nur eine Minderheit der autoritären Versuchung vollends nachgibt (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 282; Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 277).Dennoch haben sich quer durch die Altersgruppen und unabhängig von der sozialen Lage unterschiedliche Teile der Bevölkerung "[...] statistisch signifikant und im Erscheinungsbild deutlich autoritären Versuchungen nachgegeben [...]" (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 74). Ebenso erschöpft seien auch die politischen Eliten, die eigentlich Visionen und Ideen für individuelle und gesellschaftliche Zukünfte, die Freiheit spenden und Sicherheit verheißen, entwickeln sollten. Es benötigt also mehr visionäre und zukunftssichernde Gesellschafts- und Politikvorstellungen gepaart mit neuen Beteiligungsformen, die von den Bürger:innen wahrgenommen werden (Heitmeyer, 2022 b, S. 278).Aktuelle empirische Befunde zu weiteren demokratischen Fortschritten geben wenig Anlass zu Optimismus (Frankenberg & Heitmeyer, 2022, S. 73 f.). Insofern folgert Heitmeyer, dass sich der Höhenflug autoritärer Politikangebote weiter fortsetzen wird, insofern sich der autoritäre Nationalradikalismus nicht selbst (von innen) zerlegt und es kein massives politisches Umsteuern mit gravierenden wirtschaftspolitischen Reformen gibt, wofür derzeit keine Anzeichen bestehen (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 368). Nach Heitmeyer müssten aus den folgenden Punkten ökonomische, soziale und politische Konsequenzen gezogen werden:"Der finanzialisierte Kapitalismus verfolgt weiter ungehindert seine globale Landnahme, ohne Rücksicht auf die gesellschaftliche Integration.Die nationalstaatliche Politik ist angesichts der ökonomischen Abhängigkeit nicht willens oder in der Lage, soziale Ungleichheit konsequent zu verringern.Ein Fortschreiten der sozialen Desintegration ist angesichts von Prozessen wie der Digitalisierung sehr wahrscheinlich.Kulturelle Konflikte entlang konfessioneller und religiöser Grenzen werden nicht dauerhaft befriedet; vielmehr ist davon auszugehen, dass sie – auch im Zusammenhang mit Migrationsbewegungen – immer wieder angefacht werden.Sozialgeografische Entwicklungen wie Abwanderung und das ökonomische Abdriften ganzer Regionen gehen ungebremst weiter" (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 283 f.).Die aufkommenden Probleme dieser auf Dauer gestellten Faktoren können von autoritär nationalradikalen Parteien und Bewegungen als "Signalereignisse" für sich ausgebeutet werden. Sie stellen also "stabile" günstige Voraussetzungen für ein weiteres Erstarken des autoritären Nationalradikalismus der AfD dar (Heitmeyer, Freiheit & Sitzer, 2021, S. 284). Es ist mittelfristig nicht abzusehen, dass die Themen, die die AfD mit ihrer eskalativen Rhetorik bearbeitet, in absehbarer Zukunft von der Bildfläche verschwinden werden.Zudem weisen die Strukturen der AfD und des sie unterstützenden Milieus mittlerweile einen hohen Organisations- und Institutionalisierungsgrad auf. Insofern ist davon auszugehen, dass die autoritär nationalradikalen Parteien und Bewegungen öffentliche Debatten weiterhin maßgeblich prägen und so das soziale Klima innerhalb der Gesellschaft dauerhaft in Richtung von mehr Aggressivität verschieben werden.Die Bedrohungen für die liberale Demokratie und die offene Gesellschaft durch den globalisierten Kapitalismus, durch Desintegrationsprozesse und dem autoritären Nationalradikalismus sind offensichtlich. Es hängt also viel von der Kraft konfliktbereiter und widerspruchstrainierter Gegenbewegungen ab, die für die offene Gesellschaft eintreten und sich nicht mit den Normalitätsverschiebungen, die aktuell bereits ablaufen, abfinden wollen (Heitmeyer, 2018, S. 372).LiteraturverzeichnisDahrendorf, R. (14. 11 1997). Die Globalisierung und ihre sozialen Folgen werden zur nächsten Herausforderung einer Politik der Freiheit. Von zeit.de: https://www.zeit.de/1997/47/thema.txt.19971114.xml/komplettansicht abgerufen am 21.10. 2023.Decker, F. (02. 12 2022). Etappen der Parteigeschichte der AfD. Von bpb.de: https://www.bpb.de/themen/parteien/parteien-in-deutschland/afd/273130/etappen-der-parteigeschichte-der-afd/ abgerufen am 21.10. 2023.Frankenberg, G., & Heitmeyer, W. (2022). Autoritäre Entwicklungen. Bedrohungen pluralistischer Gesellschaften und moderner Demokratien in Zeiten der Krisen. In G. Frankenberg, & W. Heitmeyer (Hg.), Treiber des Autoritären: Pfade von Entwicklungen zu Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts (S. 15-86). Frankfurt a. M.: Campus Verlag GmbH.Heitmeyer, W. (2001). Autoritärer Kapitalismus, Demokratieentleerung und Rechtspopulismus. Eine Analyse von Entwicklungstendenzen. In D. Loch, & W. Heitmeyer (Hg.), Schattenseiten der Globalisierung (S. 497-534). Frankfurt a. M.: Suhrkamp Verlag, 1. Auflage.Heitmeyer, W. (2018). Autoritäre Versuchungen. Berlin: Suhrkamp Verlag.Heitmeyer, W. (2022 a). Autoritärer Nationalradikalismus (2018). In K. Möller (Hg.), Populismus. Ein Reader (S. 300-328). Berlin: Suhrkamp Verlag, 1. Auflage.Heitmeyer, W. (2022 b). Krisen und Kontrollverluste - Gelegenheitsstrukturen für Treiber autoritärer gesellschaftlicher Entwicklungspfade. In G. Frankenberg, & W. Heitmeyer (Hg.), Treiber des Autoritären: Pfade von Entwicklungen zu Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts (S. 251-280). Frankfurt a. M.: Campus Verlag GmbH.Heitmeyer, W., & Heyder, A. (2002). Autoritäre Haltungen. Rabiate Forderungen in unsicheren Zeiten. In W. Heitmeyer (Hg.), Deutsche Zustände. Folge 1 (S. 59-70). Frankfurt a. M.: Suhrkamp Verlag, 1. Auflage.Heitmeyer, W., & Piorkowski, C. (09. 10 2023). "Autoritärer Nationalradikalismus". Von bpb.de: https://www.bpb.de/themen/deutschlandarchiv/522277/autoritaerer-nationalradikalismus/ abgerufen am 21.10. 2023.Heitmeyer, W., Freiheit, M., & Sitzer, P. (2021). Rechte Bedrohungsallianzen. Bonn: Sonderausgabe für die Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung.Laudenbach, P. (09. 07 2023). Die Gründe des Aufstiegs der AfD: Soziologe Wilhelm Heitmeyer im Interview. Von sueddeutsche.de: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/kultur/wilhelm-heitmeyer-afd-analyse-1.6012038?reduced=true abgerufen am 21.10. 2023.Nickschas, J.-B. (06. 02 2023). Zehn Jahre AfD: Zunehmend radikal. Von tagesschau.de: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/afd-zehn-jahre-103.html abgerufen am 21.10. 2023.Reuters Staff. (24. 09 2017). Gauland kündigt an - "Wir werden Regierung jagen". Von reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/article/deutschland-wahl-afd1-idDEKCN1BZ0QJ abgerufen am 21.10. 2023.Schaefer, D., Mansel, J., & Heitmeyer, W. (2002). Rechtspopulistisches Potential. Die "saubere Mitte" als Problem. In W. Heitmeyer (Hg.), Deutsche Zustände. Folge 1 (S. 123-135). Frankfurt a. M.: Suhrkamp Verlag, 1. Auflage.Siggelkow, P. (16. 01 2023). Verschwörungsmythen: Klaus Schwab, das WEF und der "Great Reset". Von tagesschau.de: https://www.tagesschau.de/faktenfinder/wef-schwab-101.html abgerufen am 21.10. 2023.Universität Bielefeld. (o.J.). Prof. Dr. Wilhelm Heitmeyer. Von ekvv.uni-bielefeld.de: https://ekvv.uni-bielefeld.de/pers_publ/publ/PersonDetail.jsp?personId=21765 abgerufen am 21.10. 2023.
A 2018 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in partnership with computer security company McAfee, estimated that cybercrime costs the world almost $600 billion or .8% of the global Gross Domestic Product (CSIS, 2018, p. 4). In response to this booming element of transnational crime, states, private sector entities, non-governmental organizations, and individual citizens have sought to implement systems for the investigation, prosecution, and restitution of these crimes. One such solution is the development and enactment of international law. On December 27, 2019, the General Assembly of the United Nations passed Russia-led resolution A/74/401, entitled "Countering the use of information and communications technologies for criminal purposes (United Nations, 2019, Countering the use)." Vehemently opposed by Western states such as the United States, the resolution approved the establishment of a committee of experts to evaluate the potential for an international cybercrime treaty (United Nations). While international cooperation of this kind is commendable, Western states and human rights groups have professed concerns that the vague language of the resolution has the potential to erode the human rights protections afforded to citizens under international law (Hakmeh & Peters, 2020). The purpose of this paper is to identify the human rights concerns of Russia's proposed United Nations resolution and analyze the obligations the international community has to uphold relevant human rights protections while balancing international cooperation necessitated by international law and legal norms. The first section of this paper provides historical background on the relationship between cyber issues like cybercrime and international law. ; Winner of the 2020 Friends of the Kreitzberg Library Award for Outstanding Research in the College of Graduate and Continuing Studies Graduate category. ; Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 1 International Law & the Cyber Domain: Assessing the Human Rights Concerns of Cyber Legislation GD520 International Law and the International System Dr. John Becker Norwich University College of Graduate and Continuing Studies Kathryn R. Lamphere 23 May 2020 Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 2 Introduction A 2018 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in partnership with computer security company McAfee, estimated that cybercrime costs the world almost $600 billion or .8% of the global Gross Domestic Product (CSIS, 2018, p. 4). In response to this booming element of transnational crime, states, private sector entities, non-governmental organizations, and individual citizens have sought to implement systems for the investigation, prosecution, and restitution of these crimes. One such solution is the development and enactment of international law. On December 27, 2019, the General Assembly of the United Nations passed Russia-led resolution A/74/401, entitled "Countering the use of information and communications technologies for criminal purposes (United Nations, 2019, Countering the use)." Vehemently opposed by Western states such as the United States, the resolution approved the establishment of a committee of experts to evaluate the potential for an international cybercrime treaty (United Nations). While international cooperation of this kind is commendable, Western states and human rights groups have professed concerns that the vague language of the resolution has the potential to erode the human rights protections afforded to citizens under international law (Hakmeh & Peters, 2020). The purpose of this paper is to identify the human rights concerns of Russia's proposed United Nations resolution and analyze the obligations the international community has to uphold relevant human rights protections while balancing international cooperation necessitated by international law and legal norms. The first section of this paper provides historical background on the relationship between cyber issues like cybercrime and international law. International Cyber Law Background The cyber domain is often presented as another realm, a world that exists outside of the mostly tidy borders the international community has used to separate themselves. Aligning with Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 3 this view is the notion that cyberspace cannot be regulated because it expands beyond the traditional idea of territorial sovereignty (Kanuck, 2010, p. 1573). These ideas raise two concerns over the identification and prosecution of cybercrime. The first concern is the conflict between "cybercrime, which is global in scale, and police activities that are confined to national borders (Cangemi, 2004, p. 166)." The conflict arises in the very structure of the Internet, which "can be characterized as a multitude of individual, but interconnected, electronic communications networks (Zekos, 2008, p. 30)." This interconnectedness has created a grey area within the legal system, where no one entity has regulatory control over what happens in that area. The second concern is far more technical and highlights the transient nature of information and data (Cangemi, 2004, p. 166). The source of information can be easily masked to hide its actual location, and data "may be amended, moved, or altered in a few seconds (p. 166)." The speed in which data travels presents a significant hurdle to the legal and law enforcement mechanisms typically used to investigate crimes. As Cangemi notes, this creates "an appreciable risk that the evidence of cyber-offences will disappear" long before implementing the required resources (p. 166). Nevertheless, despite these concerns, "nation-states do strive to exercise their sovereignty over cyberspace (Kanuck, 2010, p. 1573)." The physical elements of cybercrime, such as the location of the people perpetrating the crimes or the location of the hardware used to execute the crimes, are used as a connecting link to allow governments "to address cyber conflicts involving both state and nonstate actors as matters to be resolved by sovereign powers under their respective legal systems (p. 1573)." When evidence moves beyond territorial borders, states seek to invoke bilateral or international action to further pursue the crime. This model follows the same formula that society developed over time, whether it be in stopping crimes such as international drug trafficking or heinous acts of terrorism. The international community is well-Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 4 versed in this cycle, and the "nature of the international legal system affords this sovereign-centric approach primacy under the United Nations (U.N.) Charter regime (p. 1573)." If the international community is content in continuing to use this cycle, then "international legislation and action are essential to combat the phenomenon" of cybercrime (Pocar, 2004, 27). The essential requirement of international involvement and negotiation has rung true in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, as the international community takes steps to evolve international law to include cyber issues, specifically cybercrime. The 1980s introduced international consultation on cybercrime by multiple organizations. In 1983, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) commissioned a two-year study focusing "on the possibility of harmonizing and internationalizing national cybercrime laws (Brenner, 2012, p. 133)." OECD later published a report in 1986 summarizing the results of the study and recommending countries criminalize certain cybercrimes. In 1985, the Council of Europe convened its own study, which involved a four-year focus on "the legal issues raised by cybercrime (p. 133)." In 1997, the Council of Europe convened another study tasked with "the drafting of a cybercrime treaty that would harmonize national laws dealing with cybercrime offenses and investigations (p. 133). In 2001, the study's efforts came to fruition in the creation of the Convention of Cybercrime. Also referred to as the Budapest Convention, the international treaty entered into law in July 2004 with the principle objective of "pursuing a common criminal policy aimed at the protection of society against cybercrime, especially by adopting appropriate legislation and fostering international co-operation (Council of Europe, 2001, Preamble)." As of 2018, 29 states have ratified the treaty, but the rapid development of technology has resulted in the convention becoming outdated, leaving governments and organizations calling for a new treaty (Murphy, 2018, p. 549) (Shackelford, 2014, p. 312). Russia's 2019 United Nations resolution is the latest attempt to modernize international cyber Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 5 law and has received much adulation despite its vague, concerning language and human rights implications. The next section of this paper addresses human rights and provides an overview of states' obligations to this arena as members of the international community. Human Rights & the International Community Modern international human rights law begins with the first article of the Charter of the United Nations (UN), which dictates that one of the purposes of the UN is to "achieve international cooperation…in promoting and encouraging "respect for human rights and for fundamental freedoms for all without distinction as to race, sex, language, or religion (Buergenthal, 2006, p. 785)." While the Charter provided minimal specificity as to what "respect for human rights" entailed, this provision and others within the Charter catalyzed a new international perspective on human rights. In joining the United Nations, members inherently accepted "the proposition that the Charter had internationalized the concept of human rights (p. 787)." Furthermore, the Charter insinuated that "states were deemed to have assumed some international obligations relating to human rights (p. 787)." Articles 55 and 56 of the Charter cemented the beginnings of these obligations, requiring member states to "take joint and separate action in co-operation with the Organization for the achievement of purposes" such as promoting "universal respect for, and observance of, human rights and fundamental freedoms for all (United Nations, 1945, Article 55, 56)." The specificity of human rights became more overt when the United Nations devoted the UN Commission on Human Rights to the task of drafting non-legally-binding human rights instrument. In December 1948, the UN General Assembly unanimously adopted the Universal Declaration on Human Rights (Murphy, 2018, p. 402). Composed of thirty articles, the declaration instituted vital human rights and eventually "served as a template for numerous subsequent treaties on human rights (p. 404)." As a result, the Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 6 Universal Declaration on Human Rights "has come to be accepted as a normative instrument in its own right (Buergenthal, 2006, p. 787)." Both documents uphold two pedestals of traditional international law as it pertains to human rights. The first pedestal retains responsibility for "the treatment by one state of another's nationals, an area known as state responsibility for injury to aliens (p. 389)." Although addressed at the state level, this notion asserts that individuals are afforded certain protections when in another state. The second pedestal, advanced by scholars such as Hugo Grotius, focuses on "the protection of persons against the acts of their own governments (p. 389)." It is this pedestal that introduces what is now known as humanitarian intervention, or the "idea of state intervening to protect the other state's nationals (p. 389)." Together, both the Charter of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration are "considered to spell out the general human rights obligations of all UN member states," of which there are now 193 (Buergenthal, 2006, p. 787) (Murphy, 2018, p. 59). Each international legal instrument has lent itself to the creation of international institutions dedicated to monitoring "compliance by the states parties with the obligations imposed by these instruments (Buergenthal, 2006, p. 788)." Such institutions include entities like the UN Human Rights Council and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (p. 788). Together, the instruments and institutions "laid the normative foundation of the contemporary international human rights revolution" and "influenced, in part at least, the contents of the legal norms under which international criminal tribunals operate today (p. 791)." The criticality of these elements to the international system, particularly as it pertains to international law, is justification for using each as measuring tools with which to judge the new UN cyber-focused resolution objectively. The third section of this paper will assess the purpose of the resolution and explain the supporting argument for its contents. Supporting Arguments & Analysis of A/74/401 Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 7 In order to truly understand the intent of international laws, it is crucial to develop an understanding of the stances actors take concerning the specific issues at hand. This understanding is of particular importance when discussing Resolution A/74/401 and the underlying views of cyberspace. Two opposing perspectives lie at the heart of debates surrounding the cyber domain and Internet governance and center around the notion of sovereignty. The first perspective is that "many governments are attempting to exert sovereignty in cyberspace in the same way as they do in physical domains (Nocetti, 2015, p. 111)." For these governments, the dominance of private sector institutions within cyberspace and "the unfettered internet access of their fellow citizens" are causes of concerns (p. 111). This sentiment is particularly true within the Russian government. Under its traditional views of governance, Russia "conceives of cyberspace as a territory with virtual borders corresponding to physical state borders, and wishes to see the remit of international laws extended to the internet space (p. 112)." Furthermore, Russia's domestic fears of an open Internet fuel its international concerns. Russia sees the Internet as "politically disruptive because it enables citizens to circumvent government-controlled 'traditional media (p. 113).'" It aligns this perspective "with the inherently authoritarian nature of the Russian regime (p. 114)." Russia's negative perception of the Internet as it is today ultimately lends itself to Russia's ideal mechanism of perpetuating its belief that "global internet governance is envisioned as an issue of high politics in which states - and the interstate balance of power-play – play an essential role (p. 116, 117)." Under this mechanism, it is little wonder that Russia has led international legal initiatives to refine control over the Internet since the Council of Europe's enactment of its Convention on Cybercrime. In a Ministry of Foreign Affairs press release following the General Assembly's adoption of Resolution A/74/401, Russia proclaimed that the "resolution shows that the world community urgently needs to develop a universal, comprehensive, and open-ended convention Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 8 on countering cybercrime (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2019)." The adopted resolution's language appears to align with this projected intent from Russia. The resolution stresses "the need to enhance coordination and cooperation among States in combating the use of information and communications technologies for criminal purposes" and notes "the importance of the international and regional instruments in the fight against cybercrime (United Nations, 2019, Countering the Use)." In order to fulfill these objectives, the resolution establishes an "intergovernmental committee of experts, representative of all regions" that will "elaborate a comprehensive international convention on countering the use of information and communications technologies for criminal purposes (United Nations, 2019)." Remarks of supporting nations support this appearance of cohesion. The representative from Nicaragua indicated the resolution would address cybercrime "in a more representative, democratic and transparent manner, taking into account the individual circumstances of developing and developed countries (Third Committee, 2019, Meetings Coverage)." China echoed this support, stating the resolution "is conducive to filling legal gaps in international cooperation (Third Committee)." At the same time, Belarus declared that "international cooperation is vital in investigating and combating cybercrime (Third Committee)." At face value, the resolution is a gesture of goodwill, a written contract to pursue options to disrupt cybercrime that will benefit all states. However, Russia's press release takes these notions a step further, realigning its message to its traditional view of international politics. It notes, "the resolution proposed by Russia essentially enhances states' digital sovereignty over their information space and ushers in a new page in the history of global efforts to counter cybercrime (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2019)." Furthermore, the press release dictates that the "convention must be based on the principles of respecting state sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs (2019)." There are two Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 9 essential points within this statement that require further analysis. The first is the reassertion of the authoritarian construct with which Russia chooses to view cyberspace. In a press release initially dedicated to lauding the necessity of international cooperation, Russia simultaneously defaults to its traditional views of the international community and advocates for a "digital Westphalia (Nocetti, 2015, p. 117)." In recognizing sovereignty, Russia insinuates that the international community will successfully legislate mechanisms that will reduce cybercrime. A quick review of the supporting states in favor of the resolution upholds Russia's authoritarian views (United Nations, 2019, Countering the Use). In addition to China, Nicaragua, and Belarus, countries like Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea are only some of the 88 Member States of the General Assembly who voted to adopt the resolution. Unsurprisingly, these states also abide by similar authoritarian perspectives on international law and sovereignty. China, for example, maintains a "comprehensive, multidimensional system that governs Internet infrastructure, commercial and social use as well as legal domains (Liang & Lu, 2010, p. 105)." This system supports "Internet censorship" and "China's single-party political system and its heavy intervention in Internet development (p. 105)." Given the nature and history of these states' political systems and methods of governance, the sudden focus on international cooperation generates questions of the underlying goals that may hide behind the official demands of the resolution. The second point requiring acknowledgment is the additional re-emphasis of sovereignty while also emphasizing non-interventionist beliefs in discussing non-interference in internal affairs. The resolution itself makes no mention of sovereignty or internal affairs beyond assisting countries with improving "national legislation and frameworks and build the capacity of national authorities" to deal with cybercrime (United Nations, 2019, Countering the Use). Despite the lack of language on this topic, the leading state on this initiative, Russia, felt the need Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 10 to emphasize its sovereignty in a press release about the resolution (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2019). Once again, Russia gives the impression that there may be a hidden desire layered within the words of the resolution. Additionally, the concept of non-interference within the international system is not without exceptions. The most critical exception being suspicion of human rights violations. As previously stated, humanitarian intervention and protecting citizens from their own government is a staple of international human rights law (Murphy, 2018, p. 389). Therefore, while non-interference in domestic matters is undoubtedly an essential tenet of international law, the resolution cannot call for international cooperation to combat cybercrime and simultaneously ignore the international cooperation required to maintain peace and security (United Nations, 1945, Charter of the United Nations). The next section of this paper will address these obligations to cooperation as it pertains to human rights while also highlighting the opposing arguments against Resolution A/74/401. Opposing Arguments for A/74/401 & Analysis of Human Rights Concerns The first perspective at the heart of the cyber domain debates, as described previously, is modeled after authoritarian beliefs and government control. The second perspective, modeled after a more Western approach to governance, is the belief of a free and open Internet that should remain decentralized and that "the best regulatory system is one that develops organically (Shackelford, 2013, p. 53)." A free Internet is more firmly the belief of the United States. This idea introduces the initial context necessary to understand the United States' opposition to the Russian-led cybercrime resolution. Even before the rapid development of the Internet, American foreign policy internalized the notion of "free flow of information internationally as an important element of national security (McCarthy, 2011, p. 92)." Former Secretary of State George Schultz argued that the free flow of information "undermined the Soviet Union and authoritarianism (p. 92, 93)." At its earliest beginnings, the Internet was a product of American ingenuity and, as a Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 11 result, built with a bias for "American libertarianism (p. 93)." In the present, the West has developed this concept in the "context of freedom expression, protection of intellectual property rights, and national security (Powers & Jablonski, 2015, p. 3)." As former Secretary of State Clinton asserted, the United States and other Western nations support the "freedom to connect" in opposition to efforts by states such as China, Iran, and Russia to create state-level information infrastructures designed for censorship (p. 3). The historical rivalry and disagreement between the two states on information, particularly as it pertains to cyberspace, only further roots the United States' opposition to the new United Nations cybercrime resolution. In its statement to the United Nations during the 49th & 50th meetings of the Third Committee, the United States expressed disappointment "with the decisions of the sponsors of this resolution to bring it to the Third Committee (United States Mission to the United Nations, 2019)." Contrary to the resolution's focus on cooperation, the United States' proclaimed the resolution would "drive a wedge between Member States and undermine international cooperation to combat cybercrime at a time when enhanced coordination is essential (United States Mission to the United Nations)." Furthermore, the United States asserted Russia's actions in introducing the resolution essentially bypass the "expert-driven, consensus-based process and therefore is not in line with their precedent (United States Mission to the United Nations)." Other Western states appear to agree with the United States assertions, as states such as the United Kingdom, Australia, France, Republic of Korea, and Germany composed part of the 58 Member States who opposed the adoption of the resolution (United Nations, 2019, Countering the Use). In a manner similar to the states in favor of the adoption, some opposed states made remarks in agreement with those of the United States during the Third Committee. Finland, on behalf of the European Union, remarked that "there is no consensus on the need for a new international instrument to fight cybercrime" and that the draft "represents a duplication of resources (Third Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 12 Committee, 2019, Meetings Coverage). Canada and Australia presented similar sentiments, remarking that "the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime is an important baseline for international cooperation" and that the new resolution "seeks to undercut consensus and will diminish existing global efforts that are already delivering results (Third Committee, 2019)." There is one remaining argument against the new cybercrime resolution: the potential that the document's vague language will create an environment where human rights will be more easily violated if left unchecked (Hakmeh & Peters, 2020). In a letter to the United Nations General Assembly, 37 organizations and six individuals expressed their concern for human rights protections as they pertain to the cybercrime resolution (Association for Progressive Communications (APC), 2019, Open Letter, p. 4). The first concern is a lack of clarity surrounding the scope of the "use of information and communications technologies for criminal purposes (APC, p. 1)." If left undefined, the language in the resolution arguably "opens the door to criminalising ordinary online behaviour that is protected under international human rights law (APC, p. 1)." If steps to do so were taken as a result of the new resolution, they would be in direct violation of the United Nations High Commission for Human Rights; who stated in 2011 that "human rights are equally valid online as offline (Shackelford, 2019, p. 168)." The second concern offered by non-government entities is the increasing trend in "criminalising ordinary online activities of individuals and organisations through the application of cybercrime laws (APC, 2019, Open Letter, p. 1, 2)." The letter even goes so far as to quote the UN Special Rapporteur over these concerns, that the "surge in legislation and policies aimed at combating cybercrime has also opened the door to punishing and surveilling activists and protestors in many countries around the world (APC, p. 2)." If used in such a manner, these initiatives, in addition to the UN cybercrime resolution, are in direct violation of the Charter of United Nations and the Universal Declaration on Human Rights. Within the Charter of the United Nations, efforts to Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 13 restrict or punish opposition elements such as activists or protestors violates Articles 55 and 56, which requires states to cooperate with the UN in achieving the organizations' purposes such as promoting human rights (United Nations, 1945, Article 55, 56). The Universal Declaration on Human Rights provides more specific language with which to attribute potential violations. The open letter notes that legislation of this kind is used to "criminalise legitimate forms of online expression, association and assembly through vague and ill-defined terms that allow for arbitrary or discretionary application (APC, 2019, Open Letter, p. 2)." Immediately, legislation that allows for criminalization of these elements is in direct violation of Articles 18, 19, and 20, which declare "all persons have a right to freedom of thought, conscience, religion, and assembly (Murphy, 2018, p. 402)." Furthermore, violations such as these also violate article two, which guarantees people "the right to life, liberty, and security" and dictates that "these rights are to be held without discrimination of any kind (Murphy, p. 402, 403)." Upholding these rights within cyberspace continues to fall in line with the Western perspective on the Internet. As McCarthy quotes, "the Internet is arguably the greatest facilitator for freedom of expression and innovation in the world today (McCarthy, 2011, p. 94)." The status of the Universal Declaration on Human Rights as "legitimate norms within the international system" permits this interpretation and application of international law to future resolutions (p. 94). If states are signatories to the declaration, any future adoption of any resolution must adhere to the principles and freedoms guaranteed by it. Resolution A/74/401 does refer to human rights protections, "reaffirming the importance of respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms in the use of information and communication technologies (United Nations, 2019, Countering the Use)." However, the resolution's open language is in direct contradiction to this promise, if not clarified. As the open letter indicates, "simply reaffirming the importance of respect for human rights" is "insufficient to safeguard human rights while Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 14 countering cybercrime (APC, 2019, Open Letter, p. 2)." The final section of this paper recommends additional actions that may further unify opposing entities on this resolution while simultaneously addressing all human rights concerns. Recommendations The Russian-led supporters of the resolution and the United States-led opposition are unified in one common element, at least in writing. The element is that consensus and international cooperation are vital in addressing cybercrime (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2019) (United States Mission to the United Nations, 2019). This notion is in concert with the Council of Europe, who remains the only entity to successfully orchestrate an international cybercrime treaty (Council of Europe, 2004, Convention on Cybercrime). In 2001, the Council of Europe postulated that "solutions to the problems posed must be addressed by international law, necessitating the adoption of adequate international legal instruments" that can "ensure the necessary efficiency" required to combat cybercrime (Pocar, 2004, p. 28). If the international community determines that another cybercrime treaty is required within the intergovernmental committee of experts authorized by Resolution A/74/401, then the new treaty should consider the aims of the Council of Europe Convention on Cybercrime (United Nations, 2019, Countering the Use). In doing so, the United Nations should strive to create a "basic framework for the establishment by contracting states of domestic substantive and procedural laws" in a manner that allows states to "cooperate expeditiously with one another (Pocar, 2004, p. 30)." If successful, the United Nations will be able to "establish procedures for relevant international relations" and provide "forms of cooperation between national judicial authorities as many interact with each other both swiftly and efficiently (p. 31)." Furthermore, the necessity of these requirements is supported by the very nature of the "the world-wide dimension of the Internet," Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 15 which "implies that its illegal use and related offenses must prompt responses and concerted efforts from all relevant domestic and international authorities (p. 34)." The non-governmental organizations' open letter to the United Nations supports the need for cooperation but takes it one step further than the states themselves. In its current structure, the Internet is a public-private endeavor, with private entities dominating cyberspace (Nocetti, 2015, p. 111). The present language of the United Nations cybercrime resolution allows for an intergovernmental committee of experts. However, it does not expand on the actual composition of the committee (United Nations, 2019, Countering the Use). Noting that Russia and other authoritarian regimes prefer non-government entities to use the government as a proxy for communication, it can be inferred that a Russia-led resolution intends the committee to be comprised of only government entities (p. 117). The open letter rightly points out that collaboration on cyber issues must expand beyond state cooperation. Addressing cybercrime is "necessarily a multi-stakeholder endeavour" that "requires government officials and experts, members of the technical community, civil society, the private sector, and scientific and research institutions (APC, 2019, Open Letter, p. 4)." An assessment of this viewpoint reveals that a committee dedicated to combatting cybercrime cannot rely on government expertise alone. In order to accurately reflect the composition and requirements of a private-public Internet, all discussions surrounding this resolution should involve both private and public entities. Therefore, the committee should be reformed to more accurately reflect the Internet's users. In doing so, the United Nations breaches the divide between authoritarian and more democratic governments, further increasing cooperation on this resolution. However, increased cooperation through a broader, inclusive committee and implementation of lessons learned from the Council of Europe Convention on Cybercrime will not ensure that the future convention successfully resolves the resolution's weaknesses. In Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 16 modern-day, the international system emphasizes international human rights more than ever before, as "this branch of international law has experienced phenomenal growth over the past one hundred years (Buergenthal, 2006, p. 807)." This growth has contributed to the "growing political impact of human rights on the conduct of international relations and the behavior of governments (p. 807)." If real success is desired within international governance, then the committee established under the "Countering the use of information and communications technologies for criminal purposes" resolution must account for human rights protections when determining the requirements of the "comprehensive international convention (United Nations, 2019, Countering the Use)." As the representative from Costa Rica during the 49th and 50th meetings of the Third Committee, "the international community must protect and observe fundamental freedoms, including the right to privacy (Third Committee, 2019, Meeting Coverage)." Until there is consensus on "sensitive topics such as…State responsibility to prioritize and protect human rights," the future proposed convention will fall short of its goal of achieving complete international ratification (Third Committee). Conclusion As cyberspace expands in conjunction with the rapid advancement of technology, the fear of the unknown drives further division between already opposing states in the international system. Resolution A/74/401 is the latest testament to the evolution of politicization within Internet governance. In addressing a topic that impacts every Internet-accessible region of the world, the resolution simultaneously magnifies the opposing perspectives of states as it pertains to sovereignty within the cyber domain. Furthermore, it reignites the protracted debate over whether or not human rights obligations addressed in such documents as the Charter of the United Nations or Universal Declaration on Human Rights are legally binding. Preventing further polarization requires both an acknowledgment of a fracturing international system of Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 17 governance and a proposed solution to address the issue. While state-centric governance provides legitimacy and the potential for a higher allocation of resources dedicated to protecting the Internet, increased sovereignty also "risks sacrificing innovation, complicates the regulatory environment of cyberspace, and may threaten a positive vision of cyber peace (Shackelford, 2013, p. 50)." These risks are why an alternative method to an intergovernmental committee must develop in response to the resolution. This method should integrate a multi-stakeholder construct to more fully recognize the competing impacts of cybercrime and fairly address the allegations of human rights infringement. One such method is polycentric governance, a system composed of "diverse organizations and governments working at multiple levels" in order to "increase levels of voluntary cooperation or increase compliance with rules established by governmental authorities (p. 330)." Individually, each organization or type of government faces its own unique hurdles. Together, they "contribute to a governance regime that is multi-level, multi-purpose, multi-type, and multi-sectoral in scope that could complement the top-down governance model increasingly favored" by states such as Russia or China (p. 331). Implementing polycentric governance to more equitably debate the appropriate response to international cybercrime will create an international community willing to consider the developing convention. In doing so, the environment will be better suited to determining whether or not the international system can leverage international law to investigate and prosecute cybercrime. Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 18 References Association for Progressive Communications (APC). (2019). Open Letter to UN General Assembly: Proposed international convention on cybercrime poses a threat to human rights online. Retrieved from https://www.apc.org/sites/default/files/Open_letter_re_UNGA_cybercrime_resolution_0.pdf Brenner, S. (2012). Cybercrime and the Law: Challenges, Issues, and Outcomes. Northeastern University Press. Retrieved from https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/norwich/reader.action?docID=1085118&ppg=124 Buergenthal, T. (2006). The Evolving International Human Rights System. The American Journal of International Law, 100(4), 783-807. Retrieved from https://www-jstor-org.library.norwich.edu/stable/pdf/4126317.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3Ae4ea9f31648cbd83f8f97bc7dae8e67a Cangemi, D. (2004). Procedural Law Provisions of the Council of Europe Convention on Cybercrime. International Review of Law Computers & Technology, 18(2), 165-171. Retrieved from https://norwich.on.worldcat.org/oclc/5272830680 Center for Strategic & International Studies & McAfee. (2018). Economic Impact of Cybercrime – No Slowing Down. Retrieved from https://www.csis.org/analysis/economic-impact-cybercrime Council of Europe. (2004). Convention on Cybercrime. Retrieved from https://www.coe.int/en/web/conventions/full-list/-/conventions/treaty/185 Hakmeh, J. & Peters, A. (2020). A New UN Cybercrime Treaty? The Way Forward for Supporters of an Open, Free, and Secure Internet. Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/blog/new-un-cybercrime-treaty-way-forward-supporters-open-free-and-secure-internet Kanuck, S. (2010). Sovereign Discourse on Cyber Conflict Under International Law. Texas Law Review, 88, 1571-1597. Retrieved from https://www.law.upenn.edu/institutes/cerl/conferences/cyberwar/papers/reading/Kanuck.pdf Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 19 Liang, B., & Lu, H. (2010). Internet Development, Censorship, and Cyber Crimes in China. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 26(1), 103–120. Retrieved from https://norwich.on.worldcat.org/oclc/5322181473 McCarthy, D. (2011). Open Networks and the Open Door: American Foreign Policy and the Narration of the Internet. Foreign Policy Analysis, 7(1), 89-111. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. (2019, December). Press Release on the UN General Assembly Vote on the Russian Draft Resolution on Countering Cybercrime. Retrieved from https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/3988579 Murphy, S. (2018). Principles of international law (3rd edition). West Academic Publishing. Nocetti, J. (2015). Contest and Conquest: Russia and Global Internet Governance. International Affairs, 91(1), 111-130. Retrieved from https://norwich.on.worldcat.org/oclc/5721220595 Pocar, F. (2004). New Challenges for International Rules Against Cyber-Crime. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 10(1), 27-37. Retrieved from https://norwich.on.worldcat.org/oclc/5649374698 Powers, S. & Jablonski, M. (2015). The Real Cyber War: The Political Economy of Internet Freedom. University of Illinois Press. Retrieved from https://norwich.on.worldcat.org/oclc/903245891 Shackelford, S. J. (2013). Managing Cyber Attacks in International Law, Business, and Relations: In Search of Cyber Peace: Vol. Revised Edition. Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from https://norwich.on.worldcat.org/oclc/882104883 Shackelford, S. (2019). Should Cybersecurity Be a Human Right? Exploring the "Shared Responsibility" of Cyber Peace. Stanford Journal of International Law, 55(2), 155–184. Retrieved from https://norwich.on.worldcat.org/oclc/8185136062 United Nations General Assembly. (1945). Charter of the United Nations. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/en/charter-united-nations/index.html United Nations General Assembly. (2019). Countering the use of information and communications technologies for criminal purposes. Retrieved from https://www.undocs.org/A/74/401 United Nations Third Committee. (2019, November). Meetings Coverage Seventy-Fourth Session, 49th & 50th Meetings. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/press/en/2019/gashc4284.doc.htm United States Mission to the United Nations. (2019, November). Statement on Agenda Item 107 'Countering the use of information and communications technologies for criminal purposes.' Retrieved from https://usun.usmission.gov/statement-on-agenda-item-107-countering-the-use-of-information-and-communications-technologies-for-criminal-purposes/ Running head: INTERNATIONAL LAW & THE CYBER DOMAIN 20 Zekos, G. (2008). Electronic State Sovereignty. The Icfai University Journal of Cyber Law, 7(4), 30-60.
학위논문(박사)--서울대학교 대학원 :공과대학 기계항공공학부,2020. 2. 송한호. ; 전세계적으로 지구 온난화 문제를 야기하는 온실가스 배출을 줄이기 위한 다양한 규제가 시행되고 있다. 그 중에서도 도로 수송 분야에서는 연비 규제나 온실가스 규제를 통해 온실가스 배출량을 감축시키고자 한다. 이러한 규제의 특징은 전기 주행 모드의 자동차에 대해 배기구에서 발생하는 온실가스 배출량을 0으로 산정하며, 이에 더불어 추가적인 인센티브를 부여한다는 점이다. 그런데 전기자동차가 차량 주행 시 온실가스를 배출하지 않지만, 차량 주행을 위해 필요한 전기를 얻기 위한 과정에서 온실가스가 발생한다. 그리고 이러한 상류 과정의 온실가스를 무시한 채 전기 주행 모드의 온실가스 배출량을 0으로 산정하는 것에 대해 여러 논의가 이루어지고 있다. 특히 최근 들어 이러한 논의는 더욱 구체화되고 있다. 특히 일본의 새로운 연비 규제에서 연료 생산 단계의 효율을 이용하여 보정한 자동차 연비를 사용할 것이라고 발표하였다. 이에 따라 우리나라에서도 연비 규제와 온실가스 규제에 전과정 분석 결과를 적용하는 것에 대해 그 영향을 예측하고 평가할 필요가 있다. 이처럼 연료의 생산 과정, 특히 전기의 상류 과정에 대한 고려의 필요성이 이슈화되는 것에는 크게 두 가지 이유가 있다. 첫 째는 미래에 전기자동차의 수요가 증가함에 따라 전기의 수요가 증가할 것이기 때문이다. 둘 째는 전기 생산 과정의 온실가스 배출량은 발전원의 종류에 따라 달라지기 때문이다. 이러한 상황에서 전과정 분석은 다양한 연료와 자동차의 친환경성을 정량적으로 평가하기 위한 도구로 사용될 수 있다. Well-to-wheel (WTW) 분석은 자동차 연료의 생애 전과정 분석을 의미하며, 원유 산지(Well)부터 자동차 주행 과정 (Wheel)에 이르기까지 전체 과정을 나타낸다. 전기차의 전과정에는 자동차 주행 과정과 발전 과정, 그리고 발전 원료의 생산 과정이 포함되어 있으며, 공정한 비교를 위하여 내연기관 자동차도 전기차와 마찬가지로 휘발유, 디젤 등의 연료 생산에 관한 모든 과정이 포함된다. 본 연구에서는 자동차 연료의 전과정 온실가스 배출량 값을 바탕으로 규제하는 전과정 온실가스 규제를 제시하고, 새로운 규제가 자동차 시장과 이해관계자들에게 미치는 영향에 대하여 평가하였다. 또한 자동차 전과정 온실가스 규제를 통해 국가의 에너지 정책이 자동차 정책과 연계될 수 있음을 보였다. 본 연구의 연구 순서는 다음과 같다. 먼저 우리나라의 자동차 연료에 대한 전과정 분석을 수행하고, 미래의 전과정 온실가스 배출량을 예측하였다. 다음으로 전과정 규제의 온실가스 배출량 규제치와 범칙금을 설정하고, 행위자 기반 모형을 바탕으로 정부와 소비자, 자동차 제작사 간의 상호 영향을 예측할 수 있는 모델을 설계하였다. 이를 통해서 얻은 자동차 시장 예측 모델을 이용하여 자동차 제작사가 제품의 가격을 어떻게 설정할 것인지 소비자는 어떠한 제품을 구매할 것인지를 예측할 수 있다. 마지막으로 전과정 분석 결과와 자동차 시장 예측 모델에 전과정 온실가스 규제를 적용하여 나타나는 사회적 현상에 대해 분석하였다. 본 연구의 분석 범위는 2030년의 준중형차 시장을 가정하였다. 이에 따라 2030년의 연간 준중형 자동차 판매량은 50만 대로 추산하였다. 준중형차 시장의 주 소비자는 가격에 민감하며, 준중형차는 전기 자동차의 기술을 적용하기 용이한 특징이 있다. 또한 본 분석의 자동차 시장에는 휘발유 내연기관 자동차, 휘발유 하이브리드 자동차, 휘발유 플러그인 자동차와 주행가능거리 200 마일의 전기자동차만 있다고 가정하였다. 자동차 온실가스 전과정 분석은 원료 추출 단계부터 자동차에 주유 또는 충전하기까지의 과정을 의미하는 Well-to-Tank (WTT) 과정과 자동차 주행 과정을 의미하는 Tank-to-Wheel(TTW) 과정으로 나뉜다. 분석을 위해 미국 아르곤 국가 연구소의 전과정 분석 프로그램을 이용하였으며, 한국의 실정에 맞도록 입력데이터와 연료 생산 경로를 모두 수정하여, 한국에서 사용하는 연료에 대한 전과정 분석 결과를 얻었다. 2030년의 전과정 분석 결과를 얻기 위해 가장 중요한 요소는 미래의 연비와 발전 믹스이다. 여러 기관의 미래 예측 결과에 따르면 내연기관 자동차의 연비 향상율은 전기 자동차의 전비 향상율보다 높을 것으로 예상하고 있다. 또한 우리 나라의 2030년 전력 수급계획은 원자력 발전량의 감축과 신재생 에너지 발전량의 증축이 핵심 목표이다. 2030년의 전과정 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 휘발유 자동차, 하이브리드 자동차, 플러그인 하이브리드 자동차, 전기자동차에 대해 먼저 자동차 주행 과정에서 배출되는 온실가스는 각각 138.7, 94.6, 13.2, 0 g-CO2-eq./km 순으로 나타난다. 전과정 온실가스 배출량은 4가지 자동차에 대해 160.9, 109.9, 89.3, 85.0 g-CO2-eq./km 순으로 계산되었다. 휘발유 자동차와 전기 자동차의 주행과정의 온실가스 배출량 차이는 138.7 g-CO2-eq./km이지만, 전과정 온실가스 배출량 차이는 75.9 g-CO2-eq./km 이며, 두 차종 사이의 간극이 좁혀지는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 또한 온실가스 배출량을 전과정적으로 계산하였을 때, 하이브리드 자동차와 플러그인 하이브리드 자동차의 온실가스 배출량 차이가 크게 감소하였다. 다음으로 행위자 기반 모형을 이용하여 2030년의 자동차 시장을 예측하는 모델을 설계하였다. 행위자 기반 모형은 사회경제적 환경 속에서 서로 영향을 주고 받는 행위자들의 의사 결정을 예측하는 것에 사용되는 분석 기법이다. 본 연구에서는 자동차 시장에 연관된 행위자로 정부와 소비자, 자동차 제작사를 선정하였다. 먼저 우리나라의 자동차 온실가스 규제를 살펴보면 2020년의 규제치까지 발표되었으며, 2030년에 대해서는 발표된 바 없다. 따라서 동일 선상의 비교를 위하여 다음과 같은 가정을 통해 정부의 2030년 온실가스 규제의 규제치와 범칙금 요율을 결정하였다. 기존의 규제 방법에 따른 온실가스 규제의 규제치는 62.2 g/km이며, 전과정 온실가스 규제의 규제치는 109.2 g/km이다. 온실가스 규제치를 달성하지 못할 경우에 대한 범칙금 요율은 현행 법의 2022년 이후 시행안을 참고하여 1 g/km 초과 시 5 만원으로 설정하였다. 소비자와 자동차 제작사는 각각 자동차 구매에 따른 효용과 자동차 판매에 의한 순이익을 높이기 위한 의사결정을 한다. 소비자는 자동차의 가격과 연비, 주유비, 충전시간, 총주행거리 등을 고려하여 효용을 판단하며 제품의 효용이 높을수록 구매 확률이 높아진다. 4가지 자동차에 대한 소비자의 구매 확률은 자동차의 판매율과 같다고 가정하였다. 자동차 제작사의 판매 순이익은 판매가와 생산 단가, 규제 비용, 연구 및 생산 시설 비용에 따라 결정된다. 이 중에서 자동차의 판매가를 결정할 때에는 가격이 올라갈수록 판매 이익이 증가하지만 소비자의 이탈이 일어나 판매율이 감소할 수 있다. 소비자와 자동차 제작사 간의 상호 영향에 따라 최적의 제품 가격과 이에 따른 자동차 시장의 점유율을 계산하는 모델을 작성하였다. 이를 통해 얻은 2030년 준중형 자동차 판매 비율은 기존의 온실가스 규제가 적용된다고 가정하였을 때, 내연기관 27.7%, 하이브리드 29.3%, 플러그인 하이브리드 10.4%, 전기차 32.6%이다. 마지막으로 온실가스 규제에 전과정 배출량을 적용하여 시중의 자동차에 대한 규제를 시행할 때 나타나게 될 영향에 대해 분석하였다. 연료 생산 단계의 온실가스 배출량에 의한 영향을 효과적으로 관찰하기 위하여 해당 영향이 두드러지게 나타나는 전기 발전 과정에 대해 집중하여 살펴보았다. 발전 원료의 생산 과정과 발전, 송배전 효율을 모두 포함한 전기의 전과정 온실가스 배출량은 2030년의 전력 수급계획을 기준으로 562 g/kWh이다. 전기의 전과정 온실가스 배출량이 0부터 1068 g/kWh까지 변화할 때, 차종에 따른 온실가스 배출량과 이로 인한 자동차 시장의 제품 가격과 판매율, 소비자의 총 소유 비용, 정부의 총 수입이 어떻게 달라지는지 평가하였다. 주행 과정에서 주로 전기를 사용하는 플러그인 하이브리드 자동차와 전기 자동차는 발전단의 전과정 온실가스 배출량 변화에 큰 영향을 받게 된다. 전기의 전과정 온실가스 배출량이 700 g/kWh에 이르면 전기차의 전과정 온실가스 배출량은 하이브리드 자동차와 비슷해진다. 또한 석탄 100%의 전력 믹스에서 전기차의 온실가스 배출량은 휘발유 자동차의 전과정 온실가스 배출량과 같다. 기존의 온실가스 규제에서 자동차 주행 단계의 온실가스 배출량에 대해서만 평가하였을 때에는 발전 믹스가 달라지더라도 자동차에서 배출되는 온실가스에는 전혀 영향이 없다. 이러한 차이는 자동차의 제품 가격에 영향을 미치게 된다. 자동차 제품 가격에는 규제 비용이 포함되어 있기 때문에, 온실가스 배출량이 높을수록 범칙금으로 인해 가격이 높아지며, 온실가스 배출량이 낮을수록 탄소 배출권 거래제에 따른 보상으로 제품 가격이 낮아진다. 이는 전과정 온실가스 규제에서 발전 믹스의 변화에 따라 전기차의 가격이 달라질 수 있음을 의미한다. 발전단의 온실가스 배출량이 작을수록 전기차의 가격이 더 낮아져, 시장 점유율이 높아질 것이며, 발전단의 온실가스 배출량이 커지면 전기차의 가격이 상승하면서 시장 점유율이 낮아지게 된다. 즉, 전과정 온실가스 규제에서는 연료의 생산 과정의 온실가스 배출량 변화가 자동차 시장의 점유율에 영향을 미치는 것을 의미한다. 새로운 전과정 온실가스 규제에서 준중형 자동차 시장의 판매 비율은 내연기관 25.4~37.2%, 하이브리드 자동차 28.3~41.5%, 플러그인 하이브리드 자동차 11.1~5.8%, 전기차 35.2~15.5%로 나타났다. 각 판매율의 범위는 전기의 전과정 배출량이 0 g/kWh일 때부터 1068 g/kWh일 때까지를 의미한다. 이러한 자동차 시장의 변화가 소비자와 정부, 온실가스 배출량에 미치는 영향을 분석하여 새로운 규제가 미치게 될 영향에 대해 평가하였다. 소비자의 총 소유 비용은 자동차 구입 가격과 소유 기간동안의 주유비, 유지비용, 보험 등을 포함하는 값이다. 2030년에 자동차를 구매한 소비자 1명의 총 소유비용은 기존의 온실가스 규제에서 평균 4750만 원이며, 전과정 온실가스 규제에서는 4550~4800 만 원으로 나타났다. 자동차 판매에 따른 정부의 순 수입은 유류세 세입과 온실가스 범칙금으로 인한 세입의 합에 전기차 충전시설 건설에 따른 제한 비용으로 나타내었다. 2030년에 자동차 50만 대를 판매했을 때, 1년 간 정부의 총 수입은 기존의 온실가스 규제에서 평균 1조 6000억 원이며, 전과정 온실가스 규제에서는 1조 3700억~3조 3700억 원으로 나타났다. 자동차의 온실가스 배출량은 평균 전과정 온실가스 배출량으로 나타내었다. 이는 2030년에 판매된 자동차가 주행 과정에서 배출하는 온실가스 외에도 생산, 발전, 수입, 수송 단계에서 배출하는 모든 온실가스 배출량을 합산함으로써 국가 전체의 온실가스 감축 목표에 얼마나 영향을 미치는지에 대한 지표로써 활용할 수 있다. 기존의 온실가스 규제에서 42.8% 점유율을 차지하는 플러그인 자동차와 전기자동차의 온실가스 배출량이 발전 믹스의 변화에 따라 달라지기 때문에, 평균 온실가스 배출량 또한 78.2~145.6 g-CO2-eq./km로 변화한다. 그런데 전과정 온실가스 규제에서는 플러그인 차와 전기차의 온실가스 배출량 변화와 더불어, 자동차의 점유율이 함께 변하기 때문에 평균 온실가스 배출량은 73.7~139.6 g-CO2-eq./km로 변화하게 된다. 이를 통해 전과정 온실가스 규제에서 발전단의 온실가스 배출량이 감소하면 전기차의 점유율이 증가하여 온실가스 감축 효과를 증폭시키며, 발전단의 온실가스 배출량이 증가하면 전기차의 점유율이 줄어들면서 온실가스 배출량이 증가하는 것을 상쇄시키는 효과가 나타나는 것을 확인하였다. 이는 자동차 연료의 생산 과정에서의 온실가스 배출량이 달라짐에 따라 자동차 시장이 유동적으로 반응하는 전과정 온실가스 규제의 장점을 드러낸다. ; Various regulations are in place around the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming problems. In the road transportation sector, greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced through fuel economy standard or greenhouse gas standard. The characteristic of this regulation is that the emission of greenhouse gas emissions from the exhaust port is zero for vehicles in electric driving mode, and additional incentives are provided. However, the electric vehicle does not emit GHG while driving the vehicle, but greenhouse gas is generated in the process of obtaining electricity required for driving the vehicle. Besides, various discussions have been made on estimating GHG emissions in the electric driving mode as 0, ignoring the upstream greenhouse gases. Especially in recent years such discussions have become more specific. In particular, Japan's new fuel economy standards announced that it would use vehicle fuel economy corrected using the Well-to-Tank efficiency of the fuel production stage. Accordingly, in Korea, it is necessary to predict and evaluate the effects of applying life cycle analysis results on fuel economy regulation and greenhouse gas regulation. There are two main reasons why the consideration of the fuel production process, especially upstream of electricity, is needed. First, the demand for electricity will increase as demand for electric vehicles increases in the future. Second, greenhouse gas emissions during the electricity production process are depending on the type of power generation. In this situation, life cycle analysis can be used as a tool to quantitatively evaluate the environmental friendliness of various fuels and vehicles. Well-to-wheel (WTW) analysis refers to the life cycle analysis of automotive fuels and represents the life cycle process, from oil production to the vehicle operation. The life cycle process of the electric vehicle includes the vehicle driving process, the power generation process, and the production process of power generation raw materials. For the sake of a fair comparison, the internal combustion engine car includes all related fuel production processes such as gasoline and diesel, just like electric vehicles. In this study, I proposed the life-cycle GHG regulation regulated based on the life-cycle GHG emission value of automobile fuel and evaluated the effect of the new GHG standards on the vehicle market and stakeholders. It also showed that the national energy policy could be linked to the automobile policy through Well-to-wheel standards. The research order of this study is as follows. First, a life cycle analysis of automobile fuels in Korea was performed, and future life cycle greenhouse gas emissions were predicted. Next, the GHG emission regulations and penalties for life cycle regulation were established, and a model was designed to predict the mutual influence between the government, consumers, and automobile manufacturers based on the actor-based model. Using this model, the vehicle market prediction model can be used to predict how a car manufacturer will set a price for a product and what product a consumer will buy. Third, I analyzed the social phenomena that apply life cycle GHG regulations to the life cycle analysis results and automobile market prediction model. The automotive GHG life cycle analysis is divided into the well-to-tank (WTT) process, which means the process from raw material extraction to refueling or filling the car, and the tank-to-wheel (TTW) process, which means the car driving process. For gasoline cars, hybrid cars, plug-in hybrid cars, and electric cars, the GHGs emitted during the TTW process are 138.7, 94.6, 13.2, and 0 g-CO2-eq./km, respectively. The WTW GHG emissions were calculated for four vehicles in the order of 160.9, 109.9, 89.3, 85.0 g-CO2-eq./km. The difference in TTW GHG emissions between gasoline vehicle and electric vehicle is 138.7 g-CO2-eq./km, but the difference in WTW GHG emissions is 75.9 g-CO2-eq./km. Next, I used an agent-based model to design a model that predicts the automotive market for 2030. An agent-based model is an analytical technique used to predict decision-making of actors that influence and influence each other in socio-economic environments. In this study, the government, consumers, and automobile manufacturers were selected as agents involved in the vehicle market. The goal of the GHG emission regulation is set by comprehensively considering the national GHG reduction target, the potential reduction in the transport sector, and the manufacturers' interests. The GHG standard in Korea has announced its targets by 2020, and no future targets have been announced. Therefore, the average TTW and WTW emissions are inferred from the goal of alternative vehicle supply in Korea in 2030. The target value of original GHG standards is 62.2 g / km, and the target value of proposed GHG standards is 109.2 g / km. Penalty rates for failure to achieve GHG regulations were set at 50,000 won when exceeding 1 g/km. Consumers and manufacturers make decisions to increase the utility of car purchases and the net profit from car sales, respectively. Consumers determine their utility in consideration of the price, fuel economy, fueling cost, charging time, and total driving distance of their vehicles. The automaker's net profit is determined by retail prices, production costs, regulatory costs, and research and production facility costs. The vehicle market prediction model was designed to calculate the optimal product price and the market share according to the mutual influence between consumers and manufacturers. Third, I analyzed the impact that would occur when implementing GHG standards on the vehicle market by applying WTW emissions to GHG regulation. In order to effectively observe the effects of greenhouse gas emissions during the fuel production phase, I have focused on the electricity generation process in which the impact is prominent. Assessing how life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions vary from zero to 1068 g/kWh, resulting in changes in greenhouse gas emissions by vehicle type, resulting in product prices and sales rates in the automotive market, total cost of ownership for consumers, and gross government revenues. As a result, the vehicle market applying the WTW standards has the following characteristics. First, the vehicle market is directly affected by the upstream emissions of the fuel. The original standard regulates the vehicle's Tank-to-Wheel GHG emissions, and the proposed standard regulates the vehicle's Well-to-Wheel GHG emissions. Thus, when the GHG emissions of the electricity production process change, the proposed standard is affected, but the original standard is not. In this study, the regulation cost is determined by the difference between the vehicle's GHG emissions and the GHG target value. The regulation cost is included in the vehicle retail price, which means that the price of the vehicle may change in the proposed standard. As a result, changes in market share due to changes in upstream emissions helped to reduce or offset the increase in total GHG emissions. Sales of PHEV and BEV declined as upstream GHG increased, while sales of PHEV and BEV increased as upstream GHG decreased. In this study, the vehicle market responded flexibly to changes in upstream emission under proposed standards. Second, when the generation mix is the same as Korea's development plan for 2030, the total GHG emissions of the proposed standard will be greater than that of the original standard. This is because the gap between ICEV and BEV is reduced when regulating WTW emissions of vehicles rather than regulating TTW emissions. As a result, sales volume of ICEV and HEV increased, and the sales volume of PHEV and BEV decreased in the proposed standard. In this study, four scenarios are proposed to solve the problem of increasing greenhouse gas emissions under the proposed standard. The four methods are to increase the penalty rate, improve engine efficiency, improve the ratio of PHEV and BEV, and reduce battery price. Besides, this study evaluated the impacts of consumers and governments on four scenarios. The impact of each agent on GHG standards is expressed in terms of TCO and GOV income. The results of this study have the limitation that the total GHG emissions under the WTW standard are higher than those under the TTW standard at the power generation mix level in Korea in 2030. This result arises the concern that the WTW standard are less effective than the TTW standard to reduce the GHG emissions. To solve this concern, this study suggests the development of vehicle technology, reduction of battery price, and increase of penalty rate. However, there are two problems: 1. Difficulty of direct intervention through the policy, 2. GHG reduction effect is greater in TTW regulation with the new technology. Therefore, there is a need to make meaningful suggestions for the phenomenon that seems to increase GHG emission due to the proposed standard. I suggested the two power generation mixes that represent important features. ; Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Research background 1 1.2. Research objectives 11 1.3. Research scope 15 Chapter 2. Well-to-Wheel analysis 16 2.1. Introduction 16 2.2. Previous researches 16 2.3. Well-to-Wheel processes approach and methodology 18 2.4. Well-to-Wheel analysis of automotive fuels in Korea 21 2.4.1. Petroleum-based fuel 21 2.4.2. Natural gas 22 2.4.3. Electricity 24 2.4.4. Hydrogen 28 2.5. WTW GHG emissions results in 2017 33 2.6. Future prediction 36 Chapter 3. Agent-based analysis 41 3.1. Introduction 41 3.2. Previous researches 43 3.3. Methodology – Key parameters and assumptions 45 3.3.1. Policymaker – Manage the nationwide greenhouse gas emission standard 45 3.3.2. Manufacturer - Decision of vehicle fuel economy and price to maximize profit 47 3.3.3. Consumer – Select the vehicle with the highest utility 49 3.4. Responses of the agents to the GHG emission standard - Mathematical approach 55 3.4.1. Nash equilibrium 55 3.4.2. Mathematical approach (1) – Excluding the fixed cost 56 3.4.3. Mathematical approach (2) – Including the fixed cost 61 3.5. Model validation and sensitivity analysis 65 Chapter 4. Results and Discussion 71 4.1. Evaluation of WTW GHG standards using the WTW results and market prediction model 71 4.1.1. How to read the results graphs 71 4.1.2. Definition of six results parameters - No standard case 73 4.2. Comparison of the effect of original standard (TTW standard) and proposed standard (WTW standard) 80 4.3. How to reduce the total GHG emissions in 2030, with proposed standards 88 Chapter 5. Conclusion 93 Bibliography 97 국문 초록 104 ; Doctor
The research activity carried out during the three years of the PhD course attended, at the Engineering Department of the University of Palermo, was aimed at the identification of an alternative predictive model able to solve the traditional building thermal balance in a simple but reliable way, speeding up any first phase of energy planning. Nowadays, worldwide directives aimed at reducing energy consumptions and environmental impacts have focused the attention of the scientific community on improving energy efficiency in the building sector. The reduction of energy consumption and CO2 emissions for heating and cooling needs of buildings is an important challenge for the European Union, because the buildings sector contributes up to 36% of the global CO2 emissions [1] and up to 40% of total primary energy consumptions [2]. Despite the ambitious goals set by the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) at the European level [1], which states that, by 2020, all new buildings and existing buildings undergoing major refurbishments will have to be Nearly Zero Energy Buildings (NZEB) [3,4], the critical challenge remains the improvement of the efficiency when upgrading the existing building stock to standards of the NZEB level [5]. The improvement of the energy efficiency of buildings and their operational energy usage should be estimated early in the design phase to guarantee a reduction in energy consumption, so buildings can be as sustainable as possible [6]. While a newly constructed NZEB can employ the "state of the art" of available efficient technologies and design practices, the optimization of existing buildings requires better efforts [7]. One way or the other, the identification of the best energy retrofit actions or the choice of a better technological solution to plan a building is not so simple. It has become one of the main objectives of several research studies, which require deep knowledge in the field of the building energy balance. The building thermal balance includes all sources and sinks of energy, as well as all energy that flows through its envelope. More in detail, the energy demand in buildings depends on the combination of several parameters, such as climate, envelope features, occupant behaviour and intended use. Indeed, the assessment of building energy performance requires substantial input data describing structures, environmental conditions [8], thermo-physical properties of the envelope, geometry, control strategies, and several other parameters. From the first design phases designers and researchers, which are trying to respect the prescriptions of the EPBD directive and to simultaneously ensure the thermal comfort of the occupants, must optimize all possible aspects that represent the key points in the building energy balance. As will be shown in Chapter A, the literature offers highly numerous complex and simplified resolution approaches [9]. Some are based on knowledge of the building thermal balance and on the resolution of physical equations; others are based on cumulated building data and on implementations of forecast models developed by machine-learning techniques [10]. Several numerical approaches are most widespread; these have undergone testing and implementing in specialised software tools such as DOE-2 [11], Energy Plus [12], TRNSYS [13] and ESP-r [14]. Such building modelling software can be employed in several ways on different scales; they can be simplified [15,16] or detailed comprehensively by different methods and numerical approaches [17]. Nevertheless, they are often characterised by a lack of a common language, which constitutes an obstacle for making a suitable choice. It is often more convenient to accelerate the building thermal needs evaluation and use the simplified methods and models. For example, a steady state approach for the evaluation of thermal loads is characterised by a good level of accuracy and low computational costs. However, its main limitation is that some phenomenon, such as the thermal inertia of the building envelope/structure, may be completely neglected. On the other hand, the choice of a more complex solution, such as the dynamic approach, uses very elaborate physical functions to evaluate the energy consumption of buildings. Although these dynamic simulation tools are effective and accurate, they have some practical difficulties such as collecting detailed building data and/or evaluating the proper boundary conditions. The use of these tools normally requires an expert user and a careful calibration of the model and do not provide a generalised response for a group of buildings with the same simulation, because they support a specific answer to a specific problem. Meanwhile the lack of precise input can lead to low-accuracy simulation. Anyway, in all cases it is necessary to be an expert user to implement, solve and evaluate the results, and these phases are not fast and not always immediately provide the correct evaluation, conducting the user to restart the entire procedure. In the field of energy planning, in order to identify energy efficiency actions aimed at a particular context, could be more convenient to speed up the preliminary assessment phase resorting to a simplified model that allows the evaluation of thermal energy demand with a good level of accuracy and without excessive computational cost or user expertise. The aim of this research, conducted during the three years of the PhD studies, is based on the idea of overcoming the limits previously indicated developing a reliable and a simple building energy tool or an evaluation model capable of helping an unskilled user at least in the first evaluation phase. To achieve this purpose, the first part of the research was characterised of an in-depth study of the sector bibliography with the analysis of the most widespread and used methods aimed at solving the thermal balance of buildings. After a brief distinction of the analysed methods in White, Black and Grey Box category, it was possible to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each one [9]. Based on the analysis of this study, some alternative methods have been investigated. In detail, the idea was to investigate several Black-Box approaches; mainly used to deduce prediction models from a relevant database. This category does not require any information about physical phenomena but are based on a function deduced only by means of sample data connected to each other and which describes the behaviour of a specific system. Therefore, it is fundamental the presence of a suitable and well-set database that characterise the problem, so that the output data are strongly related to one or more input data. The completely absence of this information and the great difficulty in finding data, has led to the creation of a basic energy database which, under certain hypotheses, is representative of a specific building stock. For this reason, in the first step of this research was developed a generic building energy database that in a reliable way, and underlining the main features of the thermal balance, issues information about the energy performances. In detail, two energy building databases representative of a non-residential building-stock located in the European and Italian territory have been created. Starting from a well-known and calibrated Base-Case dynamic model, which simulates the actual behaviour of a non-residential building located in Palermo, it was created an Ideal Building representative of a new non-residential building designed with high energy performances in accordance whit the highest standard requirements of the European Community. Taking into consideration the differences existing in the regulations and technical standards about the building energy performance of various European countries, several detailed dynamic simulation models were developed. Moreover, to consider different climatic characteristics, different locations were evaluated for each country or thermal zone which represent the hottest, the coolest and the mildest climate. The shape factor of buildings, which represents the ratio between the total of the loss surfaces to the gross heated volume of a building, was varied from 0.24 to 0.90. To develop a representative database where the data that identify the building conditions are the inputs of the model linked to an output that describes the energy performances it was decided to develop a parametric simulation. In detail different transmittance values, boundary conditions, construction materials, and energy carriers were chosen and employed to model representative building stocks of European and Italian cities for different climatic zones, weather conditions, and shape factor; all details and the main features are described in Chapter B. These two databases were used to investigated three alternative methods to solve the building thermal balance; these are: • Multi Linear Regression (MLR): identification of some simple correlations that uses well known parameters in every energy diagnosis [18–20]; • Buckingham Method (BM): definition of dimensionless numbers that synthetically describe the relationships between the main characteristic parameters of the thermal balance [21]; and • Artificial Neural Network (ANN): Application of a specific Artificial Intelligence (AI) to determine the thermal needs of a [22] building. These methods, belonging to the Black-Box category, permit solving a complex problem easier with respect to the White-Box methods because they do not require any information about physical phenomena and expert user skills. Only a small amount of data on well-known parameters that represent the thermal balance of a building is required. The first analysed alternative method was the MLR, described in Chapter C. This approach allowed to develop a simple model that guarantees a quick evaluation of building energy needs [19] and is often used as a predictive tool. It is reliable and, at the same time, easy to use even for a non-expert user since an in-depth knowledge in the use phase is not needed, and computational costs are low. Moreover, the presence of an accurate input analysis guarantees greater speed and simplicity in the data collection phase [23]. The basis for this model is the linear regression among the variables to forecast and two or more explanatory variables. The feasibility and reliability of MLR models is demonstrated by the publication of the main achieved results in international journals. At first, the MLR method was applied on a dataset that considered heating energy consumptions for three configurations of non-residential buildings located in seven European countries. In this way, it was developed a specific equation for each country and three equations that describe each climatic region identified by a cluster analysis; these results were published in [19]. In a second work [18], it was applied the same methodology to a set of data referring to buildings located in the Italian peninsula. In this case, three building analysed configurations, in accordance to Italian legislative requirements regarding the construction of high energy performance buildings, have been employed. The achievement of the generalised results along with a high level of reliability it was achieved by diversifying each individual model according to its climate zone. It was provided an equation for each climate zone along with a unique equation applicable to the entire peninsula, obviously with different degrees of reliability. An improved version of the latest work concerning the Italian case study appeared in the paper published in [20]. The revised model provided an ability to predict the energy needs for both heating and cooling. Furthermore, to simplify the data retrieval phase that is required for the use of the developed MLR tool, an input selection analysis based on the Pearson coefficient has been performed. In this way the explanatory variables, needful for an optimal identification of thermal loads, have been identified. Finally, a comprehensive statistical analysis of errors ensured high reliability. The second analysed alternative method represents an innovative approach in developing a flexible and efficient tool in the building energy forecast framework. This tool predicts the energy performance of a building based some dimensionless parameters implemented through the application of the Buckingham theorem. A detailed description of the methodology and results is discussed in the Chapter D and is also published in [21]. The Buckingham theorem represents a key theorem of the dimensional analysis since it is able to define the dimensionless parameters representing the building balance [24]. These parameters define the relationships between the descriptive variables and the fundamental dimensions. Such a dimensional analysis guarantees that the relationship between physical quantities remains valid, even if there is a variation of the magnitudes of the base units of measurement [25]. The dimensional analysis represents a good model to simplify a problem by means of the dimensional homogeneity and, therefore, the consequent reduction in the number of variables. Therefore, this model works well with different applications such as forecasting, planning, control, diagnostics and monitoring in different sectors. The application of the BM for predicting the energy performance of buildings determined nine ad hoc dimensionless numbers. The identification of a set of criteria and a critical analysis of the results allowed to immediately determine thought the dimensionless numbers and without using any software tool, the heating energy demand with a reliability of over 90%. Furthermore, the validation of the proposed methodology was carried out by comparing the heating energy demand that was calculated by a detailed and accurate dynamic simulation. The last Black-Box examined model was the application of Artificial Neural Networks. The ANNs are the most widely used data mining models, characterised by one of the highest levels of accuracy with respect to other methods but generally have higher computational costs in the developing phase [26]. The design of a neural network, inspired by the behaviour of the human brain, involves the large number of suitably connected nodes (neurons) that, upon applications of simple mathematical operations, influence the learning ability of the network itself [27]. Also in this case, as described in Chapter E, this methodology was applied at the two different energy databases. In [22], the ANN was used to predict the demand for thermal energy linked to the winter climatization of non-residential buildings located in European context, while in another work under review, the ANN was used to determine the heating and cooling energy demand of a representative Italian building stock. The validation of the ANNs was carried out by using a set of data corresponding to 15% of the initial set which were not used to train the ANNs. The obtained good results (determination coefficient values higher than 0.95 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error lower than 10%) show the suitability of the calculation model based on the use of adaptive systems for the evaluation of energy performance of buildings. Simultaneously, a deep analysis of the investigated problem, underlines how to determine the thermal behaviour of a building trough Black-Box models, particular attention must be paid to the choice of an accurate climate database that along with thermophysical characteristics, strongly influence the thermal behaviour of a building [9]. In detail, to develop a predictive model of thermal needs, it is also necessary to pay close attention to the climate aspects. In the literature, many studies use the degree day (DD) to predict building energy demand, but this assessment, through the use of a climatic index, is correct only if its determination is a function of the same weather data used for the model implementation. Otherwise, the predictive model is generally affected by a greater evaluation error; all these aspects are deeply discussed analysing a specific Italian case study in Chapter F, and the main results are published in [8]. The results achieved during the three years of PhD research, make it possible to affirm that each model can be used to solve thermal building balance by knowing merely a few parameters representative of the analysed problem. Nonetheless, some questions may be asked: Which of these models can be identified as the most efficient solution? Is it possible to compare the performances of these models? Is it possible to choose the most efficient model based on some specific phase in the evaluation? To attempt to answer these questions, during the research period it was decided to compare the three selected alternative models by applying a Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA), that explicitly evaluates multiple criteria in decision-making. It is a useful decision support tool to apply to many complex decisions by choosing among several alternatives. The idea rising thanks to the scientific collaboration with the VGTU University of Vilnius, Lithuanian, in the person of Prof. A. Kaklauskas and Prof. L. Tupènaitè, experts in the field of multi-criteria analysis. At the first time a multi-criteria procedure was applied to determine the most efficient alternative model among some resolution procedures of a building's energy balance. This application required extra effort in defining the criteria and identifying a team of experts. To apply the MCA, it was necessary to identify the salient phases of the evaluation procedure to explain the most sensitive criteria for acquiring conscious, truthful answers that only a pool of experts in the field can provide. Details of this work were carried out during the period of one-month research in Vilnius, from April to May 2019, where it was possible to improve the application of the Multiple Criteria Complex Proportional Evaluation (COPRAS) method for identifying the most efficient predictive tool to evaluate building thermal needs. These results are collected in Chapter G and the main results are explained in a paper under review in the Journal "Energy" from September. The identification of the most efficient alternative model to solve the building energy balance through the application of a specific MCA, allowed to deepen the identified methodology and improve research. In particular, the most efficient alternative resolution model was the subject of the research that took place during the research period at the RWTH in Aachen University, Germany with Prof. M. Traverso, Head of the INaB Department, from September 2018 to March 2019. The experience in the field of LCA and the possibility of identifying the environmental impacts linked to the building system, has led the research to investigate neural networks for a dual and simultaneous environmental-energy analysis. The results confirm that the application of ANNs is a good alternative model for solving the energy and environmental balance of a building and for ensuring the development of reliable decision support tools that can be used by non-expert users. ANNs can be improved by upgrading the training database and choosing the network structure and learning algorithm. The results of this research are collected in Chapter H and published in [28].
학위논문(석사)--서울대학교 대학원 :국제대학원 국제학과(국제통상전공),2019. 8. 김종섭. ; 본 연구의 목적은 글로벌 가치사슬 (global value chain, GVC), 혹은 여러 국가에 걸친 생산 단계의 분화 과정에 참여하여 특정 형태의 중간재 무역이 증가할 때, 숙련도가 다른 한국 노동자들의 임금에 차별적인 영향이 발생하는 가의 여부를 실증적 분석을 통해 검증하는 것이다. 최근 여러 개발도상국과 선진국에서 국가 내 불평등이 심화되는 현상이 관측되고 있으며, 이는 학계 및 정책입안자들 뿐만 아니라 일반인들의 주요 관심 대상이 되었다. 불평등이 정치적 안정성과 사회 통합에 영향을 미친다는 사실은 오랜 시간 인지되었다. 많은 국가 내에서 포퓰리즘과 시위가 늘어나는 등 정치적 갈등이 심화되고 있으며, 세계에서 경제 규모로 각각 1, 2위를 차지하는 미국과 중국 간의 무역 분쟁으로 현실화된 보호무역주의의 재등장은 오늘날 세계화와 불평등 사이의 상관 관계가 정치적으로 더욱 심각한 의의를 가진다는 것을 보여준다. 그러나 국제 생산 네트워크는 여러 국경을 넘나드는 글로벌 공급망 무역을 통해 촘촘하게 이어지는데, 이러한 글로벌 밸류 체인이 확산된 오늘날에는 관세, 쿼터, 그리고 기타 수입·수출 규제와 같은 비관세장벽의 비용이 더욱 높아졌다. 다시 말해 GVC 시대에서는 각 생산 단계를 거치며 수입 중간재가 국경을 여러 번 넘나들면서 관세의 비용이 누적·증폭되며, 전통적으로 내수형으로 여겨지는 농업과 서비스 같은 산업에 속한 생산과 고용 역시 해외 시장에 의존하는 경향이 커지는데, 이는 내수형 산업들조차 직접적으로 수출되는 제조업품 속의 부가가치로 체화되어 간접적으로 부가가치를 수출하기 때문이다. 따라서 과거 시대에 비해 무역 장벽은 고용과 임금에 더욱 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있을 뿐만 아니라, 양자간 무역의 직접적인 당사자 뿐만 아니라 간접적으로 국제 공급 사슬 무역에 참여하는 수많은 관련 국가와 산업들 모두에게 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 따라서 현대 사회에서 보호무역의 비용이 유래없이 높아진 만큼, 과연 그러한 정책의 밑바탕이 된 불평등 문제가 정말 무역에서 비롯된 것인지 정밀하게 연구하는 것은 아주 중요한 문제라고 할 수 있다. 1980년대와 90년대 초반까지 주류 경제학자들의 전반적인 의견은 무역이 불평등에 미친 영향이 미미했으며, 고숙련·저숙련 노동자들의 임금 격차가 벌어진 데에는 숙련 편향적 기술 진보와 같은 다른 요인들이 훨씬 중대한 효과를 미쳤다는 것이었다. 그럼에도 불구하고 세계화와 불평등의 관계에 대한 정책 입안자들과 일부 학계의 염려는 계속되어 왔으며, 특히 해외 아웃소싱 혹은 오프쇼어링과 임금 불평등의 관계에 대한 최근의 경험적 연구들은 여러 상반되는 결과들을 도출하였다. 한편, 글로벌 밸류 체인과 생산의 파편화가 확산된 상황에서는 무역의 잠재적인 숙련 편향적 효과를 새로운 GVC와 부가가치 무역 지수들로 연구하는 것이 중요하다. 이는 리카르도나 애덤 스미스 시대처럼 수출 속 부가가치가 거의 100% 국내에서 생산되는 것이 아니라 해외에서 수입한 중간재 혹은 다른 투입 요소가 차지하는 해외창출 부가가치 비중이 매우 커졌기 때문이다. GVC참여가 노동시장의 소득 재분배에 미치는 영향에 대한 최신의 경험적 연구들 역시 서로 상충되는 결과들을 내놓은 점에서, 더욱 정교한 방법론으로 다듬어진 실증 분석의 필요성이 제기된다. 특히 국제 공급 사슬 무역 속에 체화된 기술과 노동은 전통적 무역 이상으로 산업 고도화나 추가적인 노동 수요와 공급의 이동을 유발할 수 있기 때문에, 같은 GVC무역이라도 산업 혹은 국가에 따라 다른 영향을 미칠 수가 있다. 글로벌 가치 사슬에 가장 활발하게 참여하는 국가 중 하나인 한국의 사례가 중요한 또다른 이유는, 많은 경제학자들이 대학교와 같은 고등 교육에 투자를 해서 고숙련 노동의 비중을 높이는 것이 고숙련·저숙련 노동자 간의 임금 불평등을 해소할 수 있는 효과적 방안으로 제시하고 있고, OECD에서 가장 높은 비율의 고숙련 노동자를 보유하고 있는 한국의 경우 대학 교육 이수자의 지속적인 증가가 있었음에도 불구하고 임금 불평등이 해소되기는커녕 심화되었다는 점이다. 따라서 GVC와 임금 불평등의 구조를 연구하는 것은 GVC참여를 통해서 한국과 비슷한 방식으로 산업들의 기술 구조를 고도화하고자 하는 개발도상국들에게 좋은 참고가 될 수 있을 것이다. 한국의 예는 또한 선진국들에게도 중요한 의의를 가질 수 있다. 한국은 선진국 중에서 특이하게도 강건한 제조업 기반을 유지하고 있으며 반면에 서비스 산업이 상대적으로 낮은 비중을 차지하고 있다. 이런 산업 구조를 가지고 있음에도 GVC참여가 숙련 편향적인 효과를 보인다면, 최근 미국과 같은 선진국들이 보호무역을 통해 억지로 자국으로 (점점 낮은 부가가치를 차지하는) 생산·조립 단계 공정을 되돌리려는 "리쇼어링"을 유도하더라도 그들이 원하는 불평등의 개선 효과가 없을 수도 있다는 점을 함의한다. 산업 구조, 국가의 위치와 규모 등 수많은 요인에 따라 GVC참여가 노동 시장에 미치는 영향이 상이할 수 있는 바, 본 연구는 최근 축적된 국제 생산 분업에 대한 전반적인 선행 연구 분석과 함께 한국의 오프쇼어링, GVC관련 무역, 해외직접투자, 그리고 개발 및 산업 고도화 등의 다방면적인 질적 특성을 살펴봄으로써 이질적인 여러 종류의 GVC참여 방식이 국내 노동자들의 숙련도에 따라 임금에 어떤 상이한 영향을 미칠 수 있는지에 대한 가설을 설정한다. 본격적인 양적 회귀분석에 앞서 질적인 분석을 겸하는 이유는 GVC 무역 내에 체화된 업무와 숙련도를 알아야 노동 시장에 미치는 영향을 보다 정확히 파악할 수 있는 상황 속에서, 현재의 부가가치기준 무역 데이터조차 가치사슬 내의 정확한 산업 고도화 방향과 직무의 구성을 알기 어렵기 때문이다. 연구 가설들을 검정하기 위해 먼저 한국고용노동패널데이터 (KLIPS)에서 추출한 7,689명의 개인과 총 31,974개의 관측치로 이루어진 표본을 구성한 후 2018년 발표된 가장 최신 형태의 경제협력개발기구 (OECD) – 세계무역기구 (WTO) 부가가치 기준 무역 (TiVA) 지표들을 병합한다. 이 실증 분석 모형은 2005년부터 2015년까지 64개국간의 부가가치 무역을 추정하는 TiVA의 36개 산업 수준 지표들을 2009년부터 2017년까지의 개인 수준의 한국 노동자 데이터와 연결한다. 교육 수준으로 측정된 노동의 숙련 수준을 각 노동자가 속한 산업의 세 종류의 GVC 참여 지수 (총 참여율, 전방 참여도, 후방 참여도)와 함께 교차항에 넣어 상호 작용 효과 존재 여부를 살펴본다. 실증 분석을 위해 우선 변형된 Mincer 형태의 임금 모형에 종속변수인 각 개인 수준의 임금과 핵심 독립 변수인 노동 숙련도와 GVC참여율로 구성된 교차항과 함께 다양한 통제 변수와 고정 효과를 넣은 후, 패널 회귀분석을 실시한다. 이처럼 산업 수준 GVC 무역 지표를 개인 수준 임금 데이터와 통합시키는 방법론은 산업 수준 GVC 교역 지수를 산업 수준 임금 데이터와 연결 지은 기존 선행 연구에 비해서 동시적 인과관계로 인해 발생할 수 있는 내생성 편의 문제를 어느 정도 통제할 수 있다는 점에서 상당한 이점을 가진다. 실증 분석 결과 전반적으로 산업 수준에서의 GVC참여가 여러 숙련도로 나뉜 개인 노동자 수준의 임금에 유의미한 차등적인 효과를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 우선 교차항을 고려하지 않았을 때 전방, 후방 및 총 GVC참여율 모두 다른 변수들을 통제했을 때에도 통계적으로 매우 유의미하게 임금을 높이는 것으로 보였다. 하지만 이와 동시에 GVC참여는 고숙련 노동자들에게 상대적으로 더욱 큰 긍정적 임금 효과를 주는 숙련 편향적 효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 여러 종류의 GVC참여 중에서도 전방 참여가 가장 큰 숙련 편향성을 나타내는 것을 드러냄으로써, 본 연구는 GVC참여의 종류를 구분하는 것이 매우 중요하다는 점을 확인하였다. 이는 한국의 노동 시장에 대한 선행 연구들이 거의 다루지 않은 부분일 뿐만 아니라, 최근에 세계 단위로 분석한 연구와 정 반대의 결과를 보여주기 때문에 기존 연구에 상당 부분 기여한다고 할 수 있다. 본 논문의 결과는 또한 동일한 형태의 GVC무역도 국가의 개별적 특성에 따라 체화된 숙련수준과 생산활동의 구성비에 따라 노동시장에 미치는 영향이 다를 수 있다는 점을 시사한다. 한편, 결과의 강건성 검증을 위해 다른 형태의 통제 변수와 모형, 그리고 대안적인 핵심 설명 변수로 시간 래그 변수와 총수출액 대비 부가가치 수출액의 비율(VAX Ratio)을 사용했을 때에도 전반적인 회귀 분석 결과는 유사하게 나오는 것으로 확인하였다. 본 연구는 한국의 경우 글로벌 공급 사슬 무역에 참여하는 것이 적어도 미시적인 수준에서 노동 시장에 숙련 편향적인 효과를 가져온다는 것을 밝히면서도, 동시에 모든 종류의 GVC참여가 노동자들의 전반적인 임금 수준에 긍정적인 영향을 미친다는 점을 보여줌으로써, 최근 불평등을 해소하는 정책으로 확산되는 보호무역주의는 최적의 해결책이 아니라는 경제학의 관점을 경험적 분석을 통해 확인하였다. 본 논문에서 무역과 노동 경제학이 가장 많은 부분을 차지하지만, GVC와 관련된 연구가 여러 학제간 교류가 활발한 간학문적인 분야라는 점과 최근의 무역 전쟁 및 불평등 문제가 정책적으로도 중대한 사안인만큼, 본 연구에 포함된 여러가지 이론 및 실증 분석의 결과들은 정치학, 국제관계학, 정치경제학, 사회학, 교육학, 행정학, 그리고 경영학과 같은 다양한 분야의 연구자들에게 유용한 결과를 제시한다. ; The main objective of this study is to elucidate how exposure to globalization in the form of participation in global value chains (GVCs), or the fragmentation of different stages of production across national and regional borders, has affected the wages of workers with different skill levels in the labor market of South Korea. The rise of income inequality within many developed and developing countries has once again captured the interest of academia, the public, and politicians. It has long been known that inequality affects political stability and social cohesion. Nowadays, political tensions run high in many nations, and as can be seen from various social phenomena such as the rise of populism, civil protests, and protectionism in the form of an ongoing trade war between the world's two largest economies, the U.S. and China, the potential relationship between globalization and inequality continues to have ever more serious political implications. However, the costs of trade barriers such as tariffs, quotas, and other non-tariff barriers such as import or export restrictions are now higher than ever, due to the importance of cross-border supply chain trade that links international production networks. In an era of GVCs, tariffs are escalated because inputs must cross borders multiple times, while production and employment in many seemingly domestic-oriented industries such as agriculture and services actually depend on foreign markets, because their value-added is indirectly embodied as inputs in manufactured exports. Thus, trade restrictions may lead to significantly greater negative impacts on wages and employment than in previous eras. Moreover, barriers aimed bilaterally at one country can affect numerous other countries that participate in production sharing. In light of the high costs of protectionism in the contemporary world, an examination of whether trade actually has adverse distributional effects is crucial. Until the 1980s and early 90s, the consensus of neoclassical economists was that trade only had a minor impact on inequality while skill-biased technical or technological change and other factors were far more important drivers of divergences in the income of high and low skilled workers. Nevertheless, public suspicion and concern over the relationship has been unabated, and more recent literature on the relationship between offshoring and income inequality has shown conflicting results. At the same time, the expansion of global value chains and fragmentation of production increases the importance of studying the potential effects of a skill bias in trade with new GVC and value added trade indicators, since nowadays foreign intermediate goods and services are significantly embodied in the final product exports of a country, unlike the age of David Ricardo or Adam Smith, when exports were only domestically produced. Empirical findings regarding the relation between GVC participation and its distributional impacts on labor have been mixed, furthering the case for continued empirical investigation. The case of Korea, one of the most heavily integrated developed countries in GVCs, is also important because many economists have suggested that more investment in the tertiary education of unskilled workers can alleviate income inequality, but Korea has been experiencing a rise in inequality in spite of having the largest proportion of high skilled workers among OECD countries when following ISCED classifications. As such, a careful examination of how GVCs affect wage inequality can provide useful insights for developing countries that want to consistently upgrade their industries akin to the path that Korea has followed. Likewise, Korea's case has important implications for developed nations: Korea is an outlier among developed nations because it has a remarkably robust manufacturing sector as compared to services, yet, the existence of a skill bias of global supply chain trade in spite of this may imply that current high income economies tempted to engage in protectionism to "re-shore" overseas production back into national borders (such as the U.S.) might not achieve the distributional results they intended. The lower value-added assembly stages of manufacturing coming back would not necessarily contribute to reducing inequality in the home country. A careful examination of the literature on the labor market impacts of international production sharing, as well as the qualitative characteristics of Korea's offshoring, GVC-related trade, foreign direct investment, and development - industrial upgrading trajectory are factored into the formulation of several hypotheses on how heterogeneous types of GVC participation might impact workers of different skills in Korea. This is to complement the limitations of value added trade data in showing the composition of business functions as well as direction of industrial upgrading, as finding the specific mix of tasks and skills embodied in GVC trade is crucial to understanding labor market impacts. To test these hypotheses, a panel data set consisting of 7,689 individuals and 31,974 individual-year observations is constructed by merging and matching data from the Korea Labor Income Panel Survey (KLIPS) with the updated 2018 version of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – World Trade Organization (WTO) Trade in Value Added (TiVA) indicators, which are derived from the Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) database. This empirical model links the 36 industry-level indicators of TiVA, which covers 64 economies for 2005-2015, with the micro-individual level data of Korean workers from 2009-2017. The skill level of labor, measured in terms of educational attainment, is interacted with three different types of GVC participation indices (total, forward, and backward) of the respective industries in which the workers are employed each year. The wages of each individual worker, the dependent variable, are regressed on this product term of skills and GVC participation, using a variation of the Mincerian human capital wage equation along with various controls and fixed effects appropriate for this multi-dimensional panel data analysis. This approach of investigating the relationship between industry-level cross-border production sharing indicators on individual-level variables has a significant methodological advantage compared to many earlier studies using industry-level wage variables. Combining the two different levels can mitigate endogeneity concerns that may arise due to simultaneity bias. Overall, the findings of this study show that differences in GVC integration at the industry level indeed have heterogeneous effects on wages of individual workers classified in different skill groups. While all three types of GVC participation have positive effects on wages when controlling for other variables, the direction and magnitude of coefficients for each group of workers suggests the existence of a "skill-bias," in which increased GVC participation has a relatively favorable impact toward higher skilled employees as opposed to low or mid-skilled workers. This skill bias is strongest for forward participation, which underlines the importance of distinguishing between different types of GVC participation, a factor which was neglected in previous empirical studies combining sector-level GVC indicators with individual-level labor data. The fact that these results directly contrast with a recent cross-country study that found skill-biased effects for backward GVC trade rather than forward supply chain linkages, suggests that the country-specific business functions, skills, and tasks embodied within intermediate inputs trade affect the causal relationship between both types of GVC participation and labor market impacts, in line with this dissertation's analysis of Korea's specific position in GVC trade and development trajectory. Moreover, robustness checks show that the results are generally stable when estimated with complementary or alternative specifications of variables and models, including time lags and the Value Added Exports (VAX) ratio. At the same time, although there is a skill bias of global supply chain trade, this research shows that overall wages of workers are positively affected through all types of GVC trade, hence leading to the suggestion that the current protectionist sentiment spreading in the global economy is not the optimal answer to deal with inequality. Although the study mostly draws insights from and fills in the gap in contemporary international trade literature and labor economics, the multi-disciplinary relevance of the findings with respect to global value chains and within-country income inequality should be of interest to scholars and policymakers of many fields, including political science, international relations, political economy, sociology, educational studies, public policy, and business management among others. ; Abstract i Table of Contents v List of Tables and Figures vii I. Introduction 1 1. Background and Research Motivation 1 2. Overview of the Study 12 II. Literature, Theoretical Framework and Hypotheses 17 1. Literature Review 17 1.1. Global Value Chains (GVCs) 17 1.1.1 Concept, History and Terminology 22 1.1.2 GVCs and Value Added Trade Data 33 1.1.3 Importance of Trade in Value Added 42 1.1.4 The Role of Services 44 1.2. Labor Market Impacts of Trade and Offshoring 46 1.2.1 Benefits of Trade 51 1.2.2 Traditional Trade and Inequality 53 1.2.3 Trade in Tasks and Wage Effects 59 1.3 Traditional Proxy Measures of Offshoring Trade 64 1.3.1 Broad and Narrow Offshoring 64 1.4. Second Generation Offshoring Statistics 68 1.4.1 Vertical Specialization 70 1.4.2 VAX Ratio 73 1.5. The GVC Participation Index 76 1.5.1 Backward Participation (Foreign VA in Gross Exports) 78 1.5.2 Forward Participation (Domestic VA in Exports to third countries) 79 1.5.3 Total GVC Participation 79 1.5.4 Data Limitation: Absence of Business Functions and Tasks 81 1.6 Additional Labor Market Impacts of GVC Participation 83 1.6.1 The Smile Curve and Industrial Upgrading 85 1.6.2 Higher growth, development and productivity 93 1.6.3 Empirical Analyses on GVCs and Employment 96 1.6.4 Cross-country Analyses on GVCs and Wages 97 1.7 Korea and Global Value Chains 101 1.7.1 Korea's Prominent Role in GVC Trade 101 1.7.2 Factors underlying Korea's GVC participation 114 1.7.3 Korea's Export-Led Growth and Industrial Upgrading Path 116 1.7.4 Shifting to Higher Value Added Activities and Offshoring Assembly 122 1.7.5 Empirical Literature on the Labor Market Impacts of Globalization in Korea 128 2. Hypotheses Formulation 144 2.1. Model Predictions 144 2.2. Summary of Hypotheses 153 III. Data and Empirical Methodology 155 1. Data Sources and Sample 155 1.1. OECD-WTO Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Indicators 155 1.2. Korea Labor Income Panel Survey (KLIPS) 158 2. Econometric Analysis 161 2.1. Baseline Panel Regression Wage Equation Model 161 3. Variable Construction 163 3.1. Constructing Variables from KLIPS 163 3.2. Skills and Educational Attainment Variables 166 3.3. Constructing GVC Trade Variables from OECD TiVA 170 3.4. Alternative GVC Measures for Robustness Checks 172 3.5. Matching GVC Industries with KLIPS 174 IV. Results and Interpretation 177 1. Main Specification 177 1.1. Total GVC Participation 180 1.2. Forward GVC Participation 187 1.3. Backward GVC Participation 192 2. Further Robustness Checks 195 2.1. International ISCED Definition of Skills 196 2.2. Robustness to Endogeneity and Simultaneous Equation Bias 198 2.3. Individual Fixed Effects 199 2.4. Alternative Specifications: Time-Lagged GVC Trade Variables 202 2.5. Alternative Specifications: Value Added Export (VAX) Ratio 208 V. Conclusion 218 1. Contribution to Economics Literature 218 2. Contribution to Policy-Making and Other Academic Fields 222 3. Limitations and Suggestions for Future Research 223 List of References (Bibliography) 228 국문 초록 (Abstract in Korean) 260 ; Master
Many functions that at one time could only be performed by humans can nowadays be carried out by machines. Automation impacts many areas of life including work, home, communication and mobility. In the driving context, in-vehicle automation is considered to provide solutions for environmental, economic, safety and societal challenges. However, automation changes the driving task and the human-machine interaction. Thus, the expected benefit of in-vehicle automation can be undermined by changes in drivers' behaviour, i.e. behavioural adaptation. This PhD project focuses on motivational as well as higher cognitive processes underlying behavioural adaptation when interacting with in-vehicle automation. Motivational processes include the development of trust and acceptance, whereas higher cognitive processes comprise the learning process as well as the development of mental models and Situation Awareness (SA). As an example for in-vehicle automation, the advanced driver assistance system Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) was investigated. ACC automates speed and distance control by maintaining a constant set cruising speed and automatically adjusting vehicle's velocity in order to provide a specified distance to the preceding vehicle. However, due to sensor limitations, not every situation can be handled by the system and therefore driver intervention is required. Trust, acceptance and an appropriate mental model of the system functionality are considered key variables for adequate use and appropriate SA. To systematically investigate changes in motivational and higher cognitive processes, a driving simulator as well as an on-road study were carried out. Both of the studies were conducted using a repeated-measures design, taking into account the process character, i.e. changes over time. The main focus was on the development of trust, acceptance and the mental model of novice users when interacting with ACC. By now, only few studies have attempted to assess changes in higher level cognitive processes, due to methodological difficulties posed by the dynamic task of driving. Therefore, this PhD project aimed at the elaboration and validation of innovative methods for assessing higher cognitive processes, with an emphasis on SA and mental models. In addition, a new approach for analyzing big and heterogeneous data in social science was developed, based on the use of relational databases. The driving simulator study investigated the effect of divergent initial mental models of ACC (i.e., varying according to correctness) on trust, acceptance and mental model evolvement. A longitudinal study design was applied, using a two-way (3×3) repeated measures mixed design with a matched sample of 51 subjects. Three experimental groups received (1) a correct ACC description, (2) an incomplete and idealised account omitting potential problems, and (3) an incorrect description including non-occurring problems. All subjects drove a 56-km track of highway with an identical ACC system, three times, and within a period of 6 weeks. Results showed that after using the system, participants' mental model of ACC converged towards the profile of the correct group. Non-experienced problems tended to disappear from the mental model network when they were not activated by experience. Trust and acceptance grew steadily for the correct condition. The same trend was observed for the group with non-occurring problems, starting from a lower initial level. Omitted problems in the incomplete group led to a constant decrease in trust and acceptance without recovery. This indicates that automation failures do not negatively affect trust and acceptance if they are known beforehand. During each drive, participants continuously completed a visual secondary task, the Surrogate Reference Task (SURT). The frequency of task completion was used as objective online-measure for SA, based on the principle that situationally aware driver would reduce the engagement in the secondary task if they expect potentially critical situations. Results showed that correctly informed drivers were aware of potential system limitations and reduced their engagement in the secondary task when such situations arose. Participants with no information about limitations became only aware after first encounter and reduced secondary task engagement in corresponding situations during subsequent trials. However, trust and acceptance in the system declined over time due to the unexpected failures. Non occurring limitations tended to drop from the mental model and resulted in reduced SA already in the second trial. The on-road study investigated the learning process, as well as the development of trust, acceptance and the mental model for interacting with ACC in real conditions. Research questions aimed to model the learning process in mathematical/statistical terms, examine moments and conditions when these processes stabilize, and assess how experience changes the mental model of the system. A sample of fifteen drivers without ACC experience drove a test vehicle with ACC ten consecutive times on the same route within a 2-month period. In contrast to the driving simulator study, all participants were fully trained in ACC functionality by reading the owner's manual in the beginning. Results showed that learning, as well as the development of acceptance and trust in ACC follows the power law of learning, in case of comprehensive prior information on system limitations. Thus, the major part of the learning process occurred during the first interaction with the system and support in explaining the systems abilities (e.g. by tutoring systems) should therefore primarily be given during this first stage. All processes stabilized at a relatively high level after the fifth session, which corresponds to 185 km or 3.5 hours of driving. No decline was observable with ongoing system experience. However, in line with the findings from the simulator study, limitations that are not experienced tended to disappear from the mental model if they were not activated by experience. With regard to the validation of the developed methods for assessing mental models and SA, results are encouraging. The studies show that the mental model questionnaire is able to provide insights into the construction of mental models and the development over time. Likewise, the implicit measurement approach to assess SA online in the driving simulator is sensitive to user's awareness of potentially critical situations. In terms of content, the results of the studies prove the enduring relevance of the initial mental model for the learning process, SA, as well as the development of trust, acceptance and a realistic mental model about automation capabilities and limitations. Given the importance of the initial mental model it is recommended that studies on system trust and acceptance should include, and attempt to control, users' initial mental model of system functionality. Although the results showed that also incorrect and incomplete initial mental models converged by experience towards a realistic appreciation of system functionality, the more cognitive effort needed to update the mental model, the lower trust and acceptance. Providing an idealised description, which omits potential problems, only leads to temporarily higher trust and acceptance in the beginning. The experience of unexpected limitations results in a steady decrease in trust and acceptance over time. A trial-and-error strategy for in-vehicle automation use, without accompanying information, is therefore considered insufficient for developing stable trust and acceptance. If the mental model matches experience, trust and acceptance grow steadily following the power law of learning – regardless of the experience of system limitations. Provided that such events are known in advance, they will not cause a decrease in trust and acceptance over time. Even over-information about potential problems lowers trust and acceptance only in the beginning, and not in the long run. Potential problems should therefore not be concealed in over-idealised system descriptions; the more information given, the better, in the long run. However, limitations that are not experienced tend to disappear from the mental model. Therefore, it is recommended that users be periodically reminded of system limitations to make sure that corresponding knowledge becomes re-activated. Intelligent tutoring systems incorporated in automated systems could provide a solution. In the driving context, periodic reminders about system limitations could be shown via the multifunction displays integrated in most modern cars. Tutoring systems could also be used to remind the driver of the presence of specific in-vehicle automation systems and reveal their benefits.:Table of contents LIST OF FIGURES I LIST OF TABLES II LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS IV SUMMARY V ZUSAMMENFASSUNG VIII 1 INTRODUCTION 12 2 THEORETICAL BACKGROUND 14 2.1 BEHAVIOURAL ADAPTATION AND HIGHER COGNITIVE PROCESSES 14 2.2 VEHICLE AUTOMATION AND ADAPTIVE CRUISE CONTROL 17 2.3 MENTAL MODELS 20 2.3.1 Definition 20 2.3.2 Mental model construction and update 20 2.3.3 Discussion of existing measures 21 2.3.4 Development of the mental model questionnaire 23 2.4 SITUATION AWARENESS 24 2.4.1 Definition 24 2.4.2 Relationship between mental models and Situation Awareness 26 2.4.3 Situation Awareness as comprehension process 27 2.4.4 Discussion of existing measures 27 2.4.5 Development of the Situation Awareness measurement technique 29 2.5 LEARNING, ACCEPTANCE AND TRUST IN AUTOMATION 30 2.5.1 Power law of learning 30 2.5.2 Acceptance 31 2.5.3 Trust in automation 31 2.5.4 Related research on learning, acceptance and trust in ACC 32 3 OVERALL RESEARCH QUESTIONS 34 4 OVERALL METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS 35 4.1 DRIVING SIMULATOR STUDIES AND ON-ROAD TESTS 35 4.2 DATABASE-FRAMEWORK FOR DATA STORAGE AND ANALYSIS 37 5 DRIVING SIMULATOR STUDY 42 5.1 AIMS AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS 42 5.2 METHOD AND MATERIAL 43 5.2.1 Sampling and participants 43 5.2.2 Research design and procedure 44 5.2.3 Facilities and driving simulator track 45 5.2.4 Secondary task SURT 46 5.2.5 System description 46 5.2.6 Dependent variables trust, acceptance and mental model 47 5.2.7 Contrast analysis 48 5.3 RESULTS 49 5.3.1 Mental model 49 5.3.2 Trust and acceptance 51 5.3.3 Situation Awareness 52 5.4 DISCUSSION 56 6 ON-ROAD STUDY 59 6.1 AIMS AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS 59 6.2 METHOD AND MATERIAL 59 6.2.1 Research design and procedure 59 6.2.2 Sampling and participants 60 6.2.3 Facilities and apparatus 60 6.2.4 Dependent variables mental model, trust, acceptance, learning and ACC usage 62 6.3 RESULTS 63 6.3.1 ACC usage 63 6.3.2 Trust and acceptance 64 6.3.3 Learning 65 6.3.4 Mental model 67 6.4 DISCUSSION 68 7 GENERAL DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 70 7.1 THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS 70 7.2 METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS 71 7.3 LIMITATIONS AND DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH 74 8 REFERENCES 76 9 APPENDIX 88 9.1 QUESTIONNAIRES USED IN THE DRIVING SIMULATOR STUDY 88 9.1.1 Original German version 88 9.1.2 English translation 91 9.2 ACC DESCRIPTIONS USED IN THE DRIVING SIMULATOR STUDY 94 9.2.1 Correct description 94 9.2.2 Incomplete description 95 9.2.3 Incorrect description 96 9.3 SCHEMATIC OVERVIEW OF THE DRIVING SIMULATOR TRACK 97 9.4 QUESTIONNAIRES USED IN THE ON-ROAD STUDY 99 9.4.1 Original German version 99 9.4.2 English translation 103 9.5 SEMINAR PROGRAMME: DATABASES AS ANALYSIS TOOL IN SOCIAL SCIENCE 107 9.6 CURRICULUM VITAE AND PUBLICATIONS 109 ; Viele Aufgaben, die ehemals von Menschen ausgeführt wurden, werden heute von Maschinen übernommen. Dieser Prozess der Automatisierung betrifft viele Lebensbereiche von Arbeit, Wohnen, Kommunikation bis hin zur Mobilität. Im Bereich des Individualverkehrs wird die Automatisierung von Fahrzeugen als Möglichkeit gesehen, zukünftigen Herausforderungen wirtschaftlicher, gesellschaftlicher und umweltpolitischer Art zu begegnen. Allerdings verändert Automatisierung die Fahraufgabe und die Mensch-Technik Interaktion im Fahrzeug. Daher können beispielsweise erwartete Sicherheitsgewinne automatisch agierender Assistenzsysteme durch Veränderungen im Verhalten des Fahrers geschmälert werden, was als Verhaltensanpassung (behavioural adaptation) bezeichnet wird. Dieses Dissertationsprojekt untersucht motivationale und höhere kognitive Prozesse, die Verhaltensanpassungen im Umgang mit automatisierten Fahrerassistenzsystemen zugrunde liegen. Motivationale Prozesse beinhalten die Entwicklung von Akzeptanz und Vertrauen in das System, unter höheren kognitiven Prozessen werden Lernprozesse sowie die Entwicklung von mentalen Modellen des Systems und Situationsbewusstsein (Situation Awareness) verstanden. Im Fokus der Untersuchungen steht das Fahrerassistenzsystem Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) als ein Beispiel für Automatisierung im Fahrzeug. ACC regelt automatisch die Geschwindigkeit des Fahrzeugs, indem bei freier Fahrbahn eine eingestellte Wunschgeschwindigkeit und bei einem Vorausfahrer automatisch ein eingestellter Abstand eingehalten wird. Allerdings kann ACC aufgrund von Einschränkungen der Sensorik nicht jede Situation bewältigen, weshalb der Fahrer übernehmen muss. Für diesen Interaktionsprozess spielen Vertrauen, Akzeptanz und das mentale Modell der Systemfunktionalität eine Schlüsselrolle, um einen sicheren Umgang mit dem System und ein adäquates Situationsbewusstsein zu entwickeln. Zur systematischen Erforschung dieser motivationalen und kognitiven Prozesse wurden eine Fahrsimulatorstudie und ein Versuch im Realverkehr durchgeführt. Beide Studien wurden im Messwiederholungsdesign angelegt, um dem Prozesscharakter gerecht werden und Veränderungen über die Zeit erfassen zu können. Die Entwicklung von Vertrauen, Akzeptanz und mentalem Modell in der Interaktion mit ACC war zentraler Forschungsgegenstand beider Studien. Bislang gibt es wenige Studien, die kognitive Prozesse im Kontext der Fahrzeugführung untersucht haben, unter anderem auch wegen methodischer Schwierigkeiten in diesem dynamischen Umfeld. Daher war es ebenfalls Teil dieses Dissertationsprojekts, neue Methoden zur Erfassung höherer kognitiver Prozesse in dieser Domäne zu entwickeln, mit Fokus auf mentalen Modellen und Situationsbewusstsein. Darüber hinaus wurde auch ein neuer Ansatz für die Analyse großer und heterogener Datenmengen im sozialwissenschaftlichen Bereich entwickelt, basierend auf dem Einsatz relationaler Datenbanken. Ziel der der Fahrsimulatorstudie war die systematische Erforschung des Effekts von unterschiedlich korrekten initialen mentalen Modellen von ACC auf die weitere Entwicklung des mentalen Modells, Vertrauen und Akzeptanz des Systems. Eine Stichprobe von insgesamt 51 Probanden nahm an der Studie teil; der Versuch wurde als zweifaktorielles (3x3) gemischtes Messwiederholungsdesign konzipiert. Die 3 parallelisierten Versuchsgruppen zu je 17 Personen erhielten (1) eine korrekte Beschreibung des ACC, (2) eine idealisierte Beschreibung unter Auslassung auftretender Systemprobleme und (3) eine überkritische Beschreibung mit zusätzlichen Hinweisen auf Systemprobleme, die nie auftraten. Alle Teilnehmer befuhren insgesamt dreimal im Zeitraum von sechs Wochen dieselbe 56 km lange Autobahnstrecke im Fahrsimulator mit identischem ACC-System. Mit zunehmendem Einsatz des ACC zeigte sich im anfänglich divergierenden mentalen Modell zwischen den Gruppen eine Entwicklung hin zum mentalen Modell der korrekt informierten Gruppe. Nicht erfahrene Systemprobleme tendierten dazu, im mentalen Modell zu verblassen, wenn sie nicht durch Erfahrung reaktiviert wurden. Vertrauen und Akzeptanz stiegen stetig in der korrekt informierten Gruppe. Dieselbe Entwicklung zeigte sich auch in der überkritisch informierten Gruppe, wobei Vertrauen und Akzeptanz anfänglich niedriger waren als in der Bedingung mit korrekter Information. Verschwiegene Systemprobleme führten zu einer konstanten Abnahme von Akzeptanz und Vertrauen ohne Erholung in der Gruppe mit idealisierter Beschreibung. Diese Resultate lassen darauf schließen, dass Probleme automatisierter Systeme sich nicht zwingend negativ auf Vertrauen und Akzeptanz auswirken, sofern sie vorab bekannt sind. Bei jeder Fahrt führten die Versuchsteilnehmer zudem kontinuierlich eine visuell beanspruchende Zweitaufgabe aus, die Surrogate Reference Task (SURT). Die Frequenz der Zweitaufgabenbearbeitung diente als objektives Echtzeitmaß für das Situationsbewusstsein, basierend auf dem Ansatz, dass situationsbewusste Fahrer die Zuwendung zur Zweitaufgabe reduzieren wenn sie potentiell kritische Situationen erwarten. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass die korrekt informierten Fahrer sich potentiell kritischer Situationen mit möglichen Systemproblemen bewusst waren und schon im Vorfeld der Entstehung die Zweitaufgabenbearbeitung reduzierten. Teilnehmer ohne Informationen zu auftretenden Systemproblemen wurden sich solcher Situationen erst nach dem ersten Auftreten bewusst und reduzierten in entsprechenden Szenarien der Folgefahrten die Zweitaufgabenbearbeitung. Allerdings sanken Vertrauen und Akzeptanz des Systems aufgrund der unerwarteten Probleme. Erwartete, aber nicht auftretende Systemprobleme tendierten dazu, im mentalen Modell des Systems zu verblassen und resultierten in vermindertem Situationsbewusstsein bereits in der zweiten Fahrt. Im Versuch unter Realbedingungen wurden der Lernprozesses sowie die Entwicklung des mentalen Modells, Vertrauen und Akzeptanz von ACC im Realverkehr erforscht. Ziele waren die statistisch/mathematische Modellierung des Lernprozesses, die Bestimmung von Zeitpunkten der Stabilisierung dieser Prozesse und wie sich reale Systemerfahrung auf das mentale Modell von ACC auswirkt. 15 Versuchsteilnehmer ohne ACC-Erfahrung fuhren ein Serienfahrzeug mit ACC insgesamt 10-mal auf der gleichen Strecke in einem Zeitraum von 2 Monaten. Im Unterschied zur Fahrsimulatorstudie waren alle Teilnehmer korrekt über die ACC-Funktionen und Funktionsgrenzen informiert durch Lesen der entsprechenden Abschnitte im Fahrzeughandbuch am Beginn der Studie. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass der Lernprozess sowie die Entwicklung von Akzeptanz und Vertrauen einer klassischen Lernkurve folgen – unter der Bedingung umfassender vorheriger Information zu Systemgrenzen. Der größte Lernfortschritt ist am Beginn der Interaktion mit dem System sichtbar und daher sollten Hilfen (z.B. durch intelligente Tutorsysteme) in erster Linie zu diesem Zeitpunkt gegeben werden. Eine Stabilisierung aller Prozesse zeigte sich nach der fünften Fahrt, was einer Fahrstrecke von rund 185 km oder 3,5 Stunden Fahrzeit entspricht. Es zeigten sich keine Einbrüche in Akzeptanz, Vertrauen bzw. dem Lernprozess durch die gemachten Erfahrungen im Straßenverkehr. Allerdings zeigte sich – analog zur Fahrsimulatorstudie – auch in der Realfahrstudie ein Verblassen von nicht erfahrenen Systemgrenzen im mentalen Modell, wenn diese nicht durch Erfahrungen aktiviert wurden. Im Hinblick auf die Validierung der neu entwickelten Methoden zur Erfassung von mentalen Modellen und Situationsbewusstsein sind die Resultate vielversprechend. Die Studien zeigen, dass mit dem entwickelten Fragebogenansatz zur Quantifizierung des mentalen Modells Einblicke in Aufbau und Entwicklung mentaler Modelle gegeben werden können. Der implizite Echtzeit-Messansatz für Situationsbewusstsein im Fahrsimulator zeigt sich ebenfalls sensitiv in der Erfassung des Bewusstseins von Fahrern für potentiell kritische Situationen. Inhaltlich zeigen die Studien die nachhaltige Relevanz des initialen mentalen Modells für den Lernprozess sowie die Entwicklung von Situationsbewusstsein, Akzeptanz, Vertrauen und die weitere Ausformung eines realistischen mentalen Modells der Möglichkeiten und Grenzen automatisierter Systeme. Aufgrund dieser Relevanz wird die Einbindung und Kontrolle des initialen mentalen Modells in Studien zu automatisierten Systemen unbedingt empfohlen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zwar, dass sich auch unvollständige bzw. falsche mentale Modelle durch Erfahrungslernen hin zu einer realistischen Einschätzung der Systemmöglichkeiten und -grenzen verändern, allerdings um den Preis sinkenden Vertrauens und abnehmender Akzeptanz. Idealisierte Systembeschreibungen ohne Hinweise auf mögliche Systemprobleme bringen nur anfänglich etwas höheres Vertrauen und Akzeptanz. Das Erleben unerwarteter Probleme führt zu einem stetigen Abfall dieser motivationalen Faktoren über die Zeit. Ein alleiniges Versuchs-Irrtums-Lernen für den Umgang mit automatisierter Assistenz im Fahrzeug ohne zusätzliche Information wird daher als nicht ausreichend für die Entwicklung stabilen Vertrauens und stabiler Akzeptanz betrachtet. Wenn das initiale mentale Modell den Erfahrungen entspricht, entwickeln sich Akzeptanz und Vertrauen gemäß einer klassischen Lernkurve – trotz erlebter Systemgrenzen. Sind diese potentiellen Probleme vorher bekannt, führen sie nicht zwingend zu einer Reduktion von Vertrauen und Akzeptanz. Auch zusätzliche überkritische Information vermindert Vertrauen und Akzeptanz nur am Beginn, aber nicht langfristig. Daher sollen potentielle Probleme in automatisierten Systemen nicht in idealisierten Beschreibungen verschwiegen werden – je präzisere Information gegeben wird, desto besser im langfristigen Verlauf. Allerdings tendieren nicht erfahrene Systemgrenzen zum Verblassen im mentalen Modell. Daher wird empfohlen, Nutzer regelmäßig an diese Systemgrenzen zu erinnern um die entsprechenden Facetten des mentalen Modells zu reaktivieren. In automatisierten Systemen integrierte intelligente Tutorsysteme könnten dafür eine Lösung bieten. Im Fahrzeugbereich könnten solche periodischen Erinnerungen an Systemgrenzen in Multifunktionsdisplays angezeigt werden, die mittlerweile in vielen modernen Fahrzeugen integriert sind. Diese Tutorsysteme können darüber hinaus auch auf die Präsenz eingebauter automatisierter Systeme hinweisen und deren Vorteile aufzeigen.:Table of contents LIST OF FIGURES I LIST OF TABLES II LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS IV SUMMARY V ZUSAMMENFASSUNG VIII 1 INTRODUCTION 12 2 THEORETICAL BACKGROUND 14 2.1 BEHAVIOURAL ADAPTATION AND HIGHER COGNITIVE PROCESSES 14 2.2 VEHICLE AUTOMATION AND ADAPTIVE CRUISE CONTROL 17 2.3 MENTAL MODELS 20 2.3.1 Definition 20 2.3.2 Mental model construction and update 20 2.3.3 Discussion of existing measures 21 2.3.4 Development of the mental model questionnaire 23 2.4 SITUATION AWARENESS 24 2.4.1 Definition 24 2.4.2 Relationship between mental models and Situation Awareness 26 2.4.3 Situation Awareness as comprehension process 27 2.4.4 Discussion of existing measures 27 2.4.5 Development of the Situation Awareness measurement technique 29 2.5 LEARNING, ACCEPTANCE AND TRUST IN AUTOMATION 30 2.5.1 Power law of learning 30 2.5.2 Acceptance 31 2.5.3 Trust in automation 31 2.5.4 Related research on learning, acceptance and trust in ACC 32 3 OVERALL RESEARCH QUESTIONS 34 4 OVERALL METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS 35 4.1 DRIVING SIMULATOR STUDIES AND ON-ROAD TESTS 35 4.2 DATABASE-FRAMEWORK FOR DATA STORAGE AND ANALYSIS 37 5 DRIVING SIMULATOR STUDY 42 5.1 AIMS AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS 42 5.2 METHOD AND MATERIAL 43 5.2.1 Sampling and participants 43 5.2.2 Research design and procedure 44 5.2.3 Facilities and driving simulator track 45 5.2.4 Secondary task SURT 46 5.2.5 System description 46 5.2.6 Dependent variables trust, acceptance and mental model 47 5.2.7 Contrast analysis 48 5.3 RESULTS 49 5.3.1 Mental model 49 5.3.2 Trust and acceptance 51 5.3.3 Situation Awareness 52 5.4 DISCUSSION 56 6 ON-ROAD STUDY 59 6.1 AIMS AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS 59 6.2 METHOD AND MATERIAL 59 6.2.1 Research design and procedure 59 6.2.2 Sampling and participants 60 6.2.3 Facilities and apparatus 60 6.2.4 Dependent variables mental model, trust, acceptance, learning and ACC usage 62 6.3 RESULTS 63 6.3.1 ACC usage 63 6.3.2 Trust and acceptance 64 6.3.3 Learning 65 6.3.4 Mental model 67 6.4 DISCUSSION 68 7 GENERAL DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 70 7.1 THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS 70 7.2 METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS 71 7.3 LIMITATIONS AND DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH 74 8 REFERENCES 76 9 APPENDIX 88 9.1 QUESTIONNAIRES USED IN THE DRIVING SIMULATOR STUDY 88 9.1.1 Original German version 88 9.1.2 English translation 91 9.2 ACC DESCRIPTIONS USED IN THE DRIVING SIMULATOR STUDY 94 9.2.1 Correct description 94 9.2.2 Incomplete description 95 9.2.3 Incorrect description 96 9.3 SCHEMATIC OVERVIEW OF THE DRIVING SIMULATOR TRACK 97 9.4 QUESTIONNAIRES USED IN THE ON-ROAD STUDY 99 9.4.1 Original German version 99 9.4.2 English translation 103 9.5 SEMINAR PROGRAMME: DATABASES AS ANALYSIS TOOL IN SOCIAL SCIENCE 107 9.6 CURRICULUM VITAE AND PUBLICATIONS 109
ÖSTERREICHISCHE PLAKATKUNST Österreichische Plakatkunst ( - ) Einband ( - ) [Abb.]: 1. Hans Makart. Erste Internationale Kunstausstellung im Künstlerhause, Wien 1882. Druck von R. von Waldheim. Reproduktion der Druckerei- und Verlagsgesellschaft vormals R. v. Waldheim, Jos. Eberle & Co., Wien. ( - ) Titelseite ( - ) Impressum ( - ) Vorwort. ( - ) Farbentafeln. ( - ) Vollbilder und Illustrationen im Text. ( - ) Druckfehlerberichtigung ( - ) [Abb.]: 2. Blasius Höfel. Realitätenlotterie eines Hauses in Kahlenbergdörfl bei Wien. Druck von Blasius Höfel, Reproduktion in Dreifarbenautotypie von J. Löwy, Wien. ( - ) [Abb.]: Abb. 1. Anonym. Wachskabinet, Figuren in Lebensgröße, 1818. Holzschnitt. (9) [Abb.]: Abb. 2. Anonym. Circus des Johann Porte. (Sammlung des H. Josef Wünsch, Wien). J. Tretsensky, Wien, lith. Zirka 1830. (10) [Abb.]: Abb. 3. L. Mohn lith. Große Realitäten- u. Geldlotterie Radetzkystiftung. 88:62. 1852. (11) [Abb.]: Abb. 4. Schlögl. Hotel zum Russischen Hof. Ed. 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Wiener Mode. 108:38. Druck der Gesellschaft für graphische Industrie, Wien. (3)Abb. 33. E. Ranzenhofer. Hofopernredoute 1900. 240:90. Druck von J. Weiner, Wien. (40) [Abb.]: 4. A. H. Schram. 35. Jahresausstellung der Genossenschaft Bildender Künstler im Künstlerhaus Wien 1902. Druck und Reproduktion von J. Weiner, Wien. ( - ) 5. Adolf Karpellus. 33. Jahresausstellung im Künstlerhause, Wien. Druck und Reproduktion von J. Weiner, Wien. ( - ) [Abb.]: 6. E. Stella. Eine Nacht im Morgenlande, Schleierredoute. Druck und Reproduktion von A. Luigard, Wien. ( - ) [Abb.]: 7. Theo Zasche. Silvester im Konzerthaus. Druck und Reproduktion v. J. Weiner, Wien. ( - ) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 34. E. Ranzenhofer. Ansichtskartenschreiber "Bediene dich selbst". 93:60. Druck der Gesellschaft für graphische Industrie, Wien. (2)Abb. 35. Ludwig Koch. Trabrennen. 58:90. Druck v. J. Weiner, Wien. (41) [3 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 36. Karpellus. Figaro und Wiener Luft. Oberer Bildausschnitt. 15:24. Druck von Johann N. Vernay. Wien. (2)Abb. 37. A. Karpellus. Berson-Absätze. 29:27. (3)Abb. 38. Karpellus. Christophlack. 54:29. (42) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 39. A. Karpellus. Bärenlack. 122:90. Druck der Gesellschaft für graphische Industrie, Wien. (2)Abb. 40. Theo Zasche. Österreich auf der Stockholmer Ausstellung 1901. 105:63. Druck v. Ed. Sieger, Wien. (43) [Abb.]: Abb 41. Anonym. Laureol. 93:60. Druck von R. v. Waldheim, Wien. (44) [Abb.]: Abb. 42. Gustav Klimt. Secession, XVIII. Ausstellung 92:28. Druck v. A. Berger, Wien. (45) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 43. J. M. Olbrich. III. Ausstellung der Secession. 86:64. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (2)Abb. 44. Alfred Roller. IV. Ausstellung der Secession. 106:145. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (46) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 45. Alfred Roller. IX. Ausstellung der Secession. 89:23. Druck v. Albert Berger, Wien. (2)Abb. 46. Alfred Roller. Slevogt-Ausstellung. 45:43. Druck von Jos. Eberle & Co., Wien. (47) [4 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 47. Alfred Roller. XVI. Ausstellung der Secession. 187:59. Druck v. Albert Berger, Wien. (2)Abb. 48. Alfred Roller. XIV. Ausstellung der Secession. 91:35. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (3)Abb. 49. Koloman Moser. XIII. Ausstellung der Secession. 90:31. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (3)Abb. 50. Koloman Moser. Richardsquelle. 39:173. (48) [Abb.]: 8. Gustav Klimt. Erste Kunstausstellung der Vereinigung Bildender Künstler Österreichs Secession. Druck und Reproduktion von Alb. Berger, Wien. ( - ) [Abb.]: 9. Jos. M. Olbrich. Ausstellung der Künstlerkolonie Darmstadt 1901. Druck und Reproduktion von H. Hohmann, Darmstadt. ( - ) [Abb.]: 10. Alfred Roller. Schneebergbahn. Nach dem im Besitze des Künstlers befindlichen Originalentwurf. Reproduktion in Dreifarben-Autotypie von J. Löwy, Wien. ( - ) [Abb.]: 11. Koloman Moser. 5. Kunstausstellung der Vereinigung Bildender Künstler Österreichs Secession. Druck und Reproduktion von Alb. Berger, Wien. ( - ) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 51. Koloman Moser. Österreichs Illustr. Zeitung. 78:108. Druck der Gesellschaft für graphische Industrie, Wien. (2)Abb. 52. Koloman Moser. Frommes Kalender. 94:59. Druck v. Albert Berger, Wien. (49) [3 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 53. Bertold Löffler, Kabaret Fledermaus. 91:60. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (2)Abb. 54. Bertold Löffler. Kaiser Huldigungsfestzug. 104:38. Druck von Christof Reissers Söhne, Wien. (3)Abb. 55. Bertold Löffler. Kunstschau 1908. 66:94. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (50) [Abb.]: Abb. 56. Bertold Löffler. Kunstschau 1909. 158:35. Druck von Alb. Berger, Wien. (51) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 57. Bertold Löffler. Fledermaus, Macara. 103:81. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (2)Abb. 58. Bertold Löffler. Salzburger Volkskeller. 98:60. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (52) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 59. Dr. Rudolf Junk. Staatslotterie 1910. 118:86. Druck der k. k. Hof- und Staatsdruckerei, Wien. (2)Abb. 60. Ferdinand Andri. 10. Ausstellung der Secession. 85:28. Druck v. Alb. Berger, Wien. (53) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 61. Maximilian Liebenwein. Schwarzquell. 60:50. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (2)Abb. 62. August Keller. Böcklinausstellung im Hagenbund. 93:33. Druck von Christof Reissers Söhne, Wien. (54) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 63. J. Engelhart. Secessions - Ausstellung. 190:26. Druck v. Albert Berger, Wien. (2)Abb. 64. Ferdinand Kruis. Malschule. 80:55. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (55) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 65. Alois Haenisch. Secession 1910. 55:38. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (2)Abb. 66. Rudolf Jettmar. 27. Ausstellung der Secession. 63:45. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (56) [Abb.]: 12. Bertold Löffler. Fledermaus, Thetaer und Kabarett. Druck und Reproduktion von Alb. Berger, Wien. ( - ) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 67 Heinrich Ranzoni. 5. Ausstellung des Hagenbundes. 50:35. Druck von Christof Raissers Söhne, Wien. (2)Abb. 68. Leopold Stolba. 23. Ausstellung der Secession. 92:61. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (57) [3 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 69. Victor Krämer. 11. Ausstellung der Secession. 68:88. Druck v. Alb. Berger, Wien. (2)Abb. 70. Max Kurzweil. 17. Ausstellung der Secession. 88:28. Druck v. A. Berger, Wien. (3)Abb. 71. Adolf Böhm. 8. Ausstellung der Secession. 60:46. Druck v. Alb. Berger, Wien. (58) [Abb.]: Abb. 72. Otto Friedrich. 33. Ausstellung der Secession. 56:42. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (59) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 73. Franz Wacik. Silhouettenredoute in der Secession. 121:38. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (2)Abb. 74. Karl Mediz. Hagenbund - Ausstellung. 70:42. Druck von Christof Reissers Söhne, Wien. (60) [Abb.]: Abb. 75. Josef Urban.Liebermannausstellung im Hagenbund. 106:78. Druck von Chr. Reissers Söhne, Wien. (61) [Abb.]: Abb. 76. Heinrich Lefler. Blumencorso in "Venedig in Wien". 121:89. Druck von J. Weiner, Wien. (62) [Abb.]: Abb. 76. Heinrich Lefler. Augartenfest 1894. 112:83. Druck von S. Czeiger, Wien. ( - ) [Abb.]: 13. Heinrich Lefler. Die Hölle. Druck und Reproduktion der Druckerei- und Verlagsaktiengesellschaft vormals R. v. Waldheim, Jos. Eberle & Co., Wien. ([63]) [3 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 78. 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Der Morgen III. 189:66. Druck der Gesellschaft für Graph. Industrie, Wien. (91) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 121. Carl Alexander Wilke. Auf zum Cobenzl. 92:124. Druck von Christof Reissers Söhne, Wien. (2)Abb. 122. Grom-Rottmayer. Centralbad in Wien. I. Zustand. 57:94. Druck von Alb. Berger, Wien. (92) [4 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 123. Josef von Divéky. Max u. Moritz. 187:59. Druck v. Brüd. Rosenbaum. (2)Abb. 124. Erwin Lang. Grete Wiesenthal. 69:45. Druck von Hollerbaum & Schmidt, Berlin. (3)Abb. 125. Victor Schufinsky. Lucifer. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (4)Abb. 126. Walter Rusell. Humoristen in der Galerie Arnot. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (93) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 127. Blonder. Volksbühne, Kampf. 67:119. Druck der Ges. f. Graph. Industrie, vorm. Brüd. Rosenbaum. (2)Abb. 128. Urban Janke. Perrots letztes Abenteuer. 46:58. Druck von Brüder Rosenbaum, Wien. (94) [Abb.]: Abb. 129. Oskar Kokoschka. Sommertheater in der Kunstschau. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (96) [Abb.]: 18. Egon Schiele. Shaw oder die Ironie, Vorlesung Dr. Egon Friedell. Druck der Graph. Kunstanstalt Rosenbaum, Wien. Reproduktion der Gesellschaft für Graph. Industrie, Wien. ( - ) [Abb.]: 19. Gonda. Maier und Hruby, Teppichbetten. Druck und Reproduktion der Druckerei- und Verlagsaktiengesellschaft vormals R. v. Waldheim, Jos. Eberle & Co., Wien. ( - ) [Abb.]: 20. Tony Grubhofer. Rittnerbahn in Tirol. Druck und Reproduktion von Ed. Strache, Warnsdorf. ( - ) [Abb.]: Abb. 130. Artur Berger. Marx Emaillack. 91:58. Druck von Albert Berger, Wien. (97) [Abb.]: Abb. 131. Anonym. Makarts letztes Werk im Kunstverein Graz. 100:65. (99) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 132. Daniel Pauluzzi. E. v. Emperger u. Co. 58:90. Druck Senefelder, Graz. (2)Abb. 133. L. Resch. Kärntner Landes-Handwerker-Ausstellung 1911. 46:59. Druck Senefelder, Graz. (100) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 134. Albin Egger-Lienz. Passionsspiel Erl. 91:60. Druck der Wagnerschen Universitätsdruckerei, Innsbruck. (2)Abb. 135. Hugo Grimm. Passionsspiele Brixlegg. 40:21. Druck der Wagnerschen Universitätsdruckerei, Innsbruck. (101) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 136. Alfons Mucha. Sängerfest der Mährischen Lehrer. 106:78. Druck von V. Neubert, Prag-Smichov. (2)Abb. 137. V. Hynais. Ethnographische Ausstellung in Prag 1895. 105:131. Druck von V. Neubert, Prag-Smichov. (102) [3 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 138. Arnošt Hofbauer. Kunstsalon Topič. (Buddah. 107:79. Druck von V. Neubert, Prag-Smichov. (2)Abb. 139. Arnošt Hofbauer. Kunstsalon Topič. Der ertrinkende Künstler. 105:77. Druck von V. Neubert, Prag-Smichov. (3)Abb. 140. Arnošt Hofbauer. Vortrag Anna Kvapil. 110:76. Druck von V. Neubert, Prag-Smichov. (103) [Abb.]: Abb. 141. Vaclav Oliva. Jubiläums-Ausstellung in Prag 1908. 46:56. Druck der "Unie", Prag. (104) [3 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 142. Vacláv Oliva. Zlatá Praha. 51:16. Druck der "Unie", Prag. (2)Abb. 143. Vacláv Oliva. Buchhandlung Otto. 104:53. Druck der "Unie", Prag. (3)Abb. 144. Vacláv Oliva. Kunstsalon Topič. P. Athene. 100:75. Druck von V. Neubert, Prag-Smichov. (105) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 145. V. Štroff. Vilimeks Humoristische Blätter 76:103. Druck der "Unie", Prag. (2)Abb. 146. Štroff. Vilimeks Humoristische Blätter. 78:106. Druck der "Unie", Prag. (106) [Abb.]: Abb. 147. Štroff. Vilimeks Humoristische Blätter. 76:101. Druck der "Unie", Prag. (107) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 148. F. Urban. VI. Sokolfest in Prag. 157:105. Druck der "Unie", Prag. (2)Abb. 149. B. Jaronĕk. Stramberg. 96:66. Druck der Gebrüder Chrastin in Wallachisch-Meseritsch. (108) [Abb.]: Abb. 150. F. Naske. Künstlerkarnevalsfest in Prag 1911. 129:96. Druck von V. Neubert in Prag-Smichov. ( - ) [Abb.]: Abb. 151. Max Švabinský. XVI. Ausstellung des Manesbunds in Prag. 1905. 151:105. Druck der "Unie", Prag. ([109]) [Abb.]: 21. Ottokar 130104086. Baška. Druck und Reproduktion der Politika, Prag. ([111]) [5 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 152. Hornik. Sokolfest in Prag 1912. 290:143. Druck von V. Neubert, Prag-Smichov. (2)Abb. 153. Županski. Rodinausstellung im Manesbund, Prag. 150:72. Druck der "Unie", Prag. (3)Abb. 154. Jozsá Úprka. Ausstellung in Göding 1913. 112:58. Druck von L. Klabusag. Kolešov. (4)Abb. 155. V. Preisler. Hagenbund, Manes. Prag. 123:91. Druck von V. Neubert, Prag-Smichov. (5)Abb. 156. Vorlová-Vlčková. Fremdenverkehr in Mähren. 116:90. Dr. v. V. Neubert, Prag-Smichov. (113) [3 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 157. Ottokar Štáfl. Künstlerkarneval Rokoko. Druck der Politika, Prag. (2)Abb. 158. Ottokar Štáfl. Naturtheater in der Šrárka. Druck der Politika in Prag. (3)Abb. 159. Vratislav Nechleba. Ausstellung der "Indépedents im Manesbund, Prag. 127:97. Druck von V. Neubert, Prag-Smichov. (114) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 160. Ottokar Štáfl. Steeple-Chaise. Druck der Politika, Prag. (2)Abb. 161. Ottokar Štáfl. Gemäldeausstellung Ullmann. Druck der Politika, Prag. (115) [3 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 162. T. Axentowicz. 82:62. Druck von A. Pruszyński in Krakau. (2)Abb. 163. F. Zajchowski. Lemberger Jahrmarkt, 1911. 106:75. Druck von Piller-Neumann in Lemberg. (3)Abb. 164. Sichulsiki. Kunstausstellung in Lemberg, 1910. 73:108. Druck von Piller-Neumann in Lemberg. (116) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 165. K. Frycz. Krakau. 91:61. Druck von A. Pruszyński in Krakau. (2)Abb. 166. K. Frycz. Krynica-Verlag. 91:61. Druck von A. Prustyński in Krakau. (117) [2 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 167. A. Orell. Ausstellung in Capodistria 1910. 155:93. Druck von E. Passero in Udine-Monfalcone. (2)Abb. 168. Arpad Basch. Rennerit. 68:48. Druck von Kunossy in Budapest. (118) [3 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 169. Tolnay Ákos. Alt-Budapest. 90:70. Druck von Posner in Budapest. (2)Abb. 170. Michael Biró. Alkohol. Druck von Seidner in Budapest. (3)Abb. 171. Michael Biró. Wahlen. 123:91. Druck von Seidner, Budapest. (119) [Abb.]: Abb. 172. A. Tuszkay. Budapester Orpheum, Giampietro. 95:63. Druck von Athenaeum R. T. Nyomása. (120) [3 Abb.]: (1)Abb. 173. P. A. von Lászlo. Wiener Musikfestwoche 1912. 95:62. Druck von Christof Reissers Söhne, Wien. (2)Abb. 174. Simay Imre. Ausstellung im Hagenbund. 100:80. Druck von Christof Reissers Söhne, Wien. (3)Abb. 175. J. Mestrović. 35. Ausstellung der Secession. 65:43. Druck von A. Berger, Wien. (121) [Abb.]: Abb. 176. Anonym. 91:59. (124) Einband ( - ) Einband ( - )
Background: The Atlantic Forest is one, if not the most, diverse ecosystem in the planet. The Atlantic Forest contains an estimated 250 species of mammals (55 endemic), 340 amphibians (90 endemic), 1,023 birds (188 endemic), and approximately 20,000 trees, half of them endemic. Unfortunately, several of these species are currently threatened to become extinct. Amongst those, a tree species from the Araucariaceae family called Araucaria angustifolia can be found. Known as Brazilian Pine or just araucaria, this tree occupies the higher forest stratum, characterizing the landscape of the Atlantic Forest highlands, thus being considered a symbol of the Brazilian southern region. Araucaria trees are profitable regarding non-wood utilisation. The species produces a highly nutritious seed (pinhão in Portuguese), appreciated by humans and animals. There is a culturally established market around the seed, which, unfortunately, is not developed enough to allow sufficient economical return. Araucaria trees are also attractive due to its high quality and aesthetically pleasing wood, which led to its intense exploration in the 1960s and 1970s. Nowadays, the species is classified as critically endangered and is protected by law against illegal logging. However, such restrictive laws have resulted in further threat to the species. Knowing the legal difficulties to remove a grown araucaria tree from their property, landowners remove new natural saplings. Practices have been proposed to promote other sustainable uses for the species. Still, lawmakers in consort with researchers and specialists can only legislate upon detailed data regarding the species. In order to collect such paramount information throughout the species occurrence areas (approx. 200,000 km2 ), specialists face an extremely very fragmented environment, which poses operational and financial difficulties to acquire the data. Aims: The aim of this thesis was to introduce a methodology to automatically detect and measure Araucaria angustifolia in complex native forest formations in southern Brazil. The proposed methodology leverages on light detection and ranging (LiDAR) as well as high resolution aerial imagery. Normally, species mapping and measurement is conducted by combining LiDAR and spectral information (e.g. aerial, satellite or drone imagery). In this study, an analysis was performed to determine if there is, in fact, the necessity to add spectral information to map araucaria trees. Lastly, an alternative method was proposed, where no LiDAR data is required. A novel methodology was developed to detect araucarias from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), as an alternative to LiDAR-based methodologies. Research questions: 1. Is spectral information imperative to map A. angustifolia or LiDAR data alone is enough? 2. Can A. angustifolia trees be detected and measured in dense forest formation using Remote Sensing data? 3. If araucaria trees are detectable, can tree parameters (e.g. total height, diameter at breast height (DBH) and crown area) be acquired with reasonable accuracy? 4. Can A. angustifolia trees be detected based on their morphology, i.e. branches distribution? Study site and data: The data analysed in this thesis come from a municipality called Lages, located in the state of Santa Catarina in the Brazilian southern region. The two study sites contain fragments of the Atlantic Forest, where the target species A. angustifolia can be found with 38 and 34 ha for study site A and B, respectively. Both study sites are covered with LiDAR data with an average point density of 14 points/m2 and aerial imagery with 0.1 m spatial resolution. The datasets were collected in the same flight performed in June 2019. In addition, field data from March 2016 was available from 10 plots, each with 0.2 ha (total sampled area of 2 ha), located in site A, where all araucaria trees within the plots were measured and georeferenced. Lastly, UAV imagery with ground sample distance of 5 cm was also available for study site A, also collected in March 2016. Methodological approach: The methodology implemented in this thesis consisted mainly of two parts: (1) araucaria tree mapping and forest parameter estimation using LiDAR and aerial imagery; (2) detection of araucarias based on branch recognition from UAV imagery. 1. In order to map araucaria trees employing LiDAR and aerial imagery, a Random Forest classification was conducted. An analysis was performed to determine the efficiency of the classification when using only LiDAR data and when adding spectral information to it. Moreover, the random forest classifier was trained in site A and tested in site B. With the result of the mapping, a clipping mask was generated and used to clip the LiDAR point cloud. The clipped point cloud was assessed in terms of individual tree detection (ITD) as a means to determine the number of stems per hectare, total tree height and crown area, as well as estimate DBH. 2. A new methodology was developed as an alternative for LiDAR-based approaches. The approach consists of recognizing araucaria branches and use their orientation to determine A. angustifolia tree locations. The approach was implemented using a computer vision method called Probabilistic Hough Transform associated with other image processing techniques such as morphological filtering and image segmentation. By employing such techniques, the branches were detected as lines, which then could be used to calculate branch orientation, culminating on tree location. Results and discussion: LiDAR data is commonly used for commercial conifer tree species mapping and have been used for inventory purposes operationally in many countries such as Finland, Sweden, Canada, the United States and others. However, fewer have explored the applications of LiDAR data in complex environments such as the Atlantic Forest. The reason is mainly due to the multi layer structure in native forests and the high occurrence of tree occlusion, which affects the stems count, an important forest parameter for inventory purposes. In this study, such reasons were also noticed, even considering araucarias' crown size and the fact that the adult individuals of the species usually are located in the upper layer of the forest canopy. Nonetheless, it was possible to determine that the majority of A. angustifolia trees were successfully mapped employing LiDAR data. Moreover, there was enough statistical evidence to state that no difference was found when mapping A. angustifolia employing only LiDAR data and combined spectral information and LiDAR data. When comparing both maps derived from the Random Forest classification, it was possible to observe similar performance from both datasets. Overall accuracies of 90.8% and 89.8% were observed for sites A and B, respectively. Even though adult trees of araucaria are usually visible in the upper forest canopy, a more basic operation such as a height threshold would not be able to separate araucarias from the rest of the species. This happens since there are many other species that occupy the same height level, which could result in commission errors. Hence, a supervised classification such as RF was efficient in removing the remainder of the tree species. When addressing the stems count, after running a ITD approach using local maxima detection an overall accuracy of 73.34% was reached. That resulted in a density of 43 stems/ha, which is below the 61 stems/ha calculated from the field data. This difference in mainly due to tree occlusion, which is often observed in multi layer structure of complex natural environments such as araucaria forests. If a comparison is performed against the actual visible trees, the accuracy would be increased to 87.9%. There is still 12.1% error considering the upper visible forest canopy, which is caused by smaller trees close to dominant ones, resulting in further omissions. One of the challenges of working with LiDAR and araucarias is the species morphology. Araucarias possess a unique crown shape, commonly described in the literature as being similar to a wine glass or an inverted chandelier. However, a combination of uneven terrain and oddly shaped crowns results in a distorted normalized point cloud, which in turn, affects the total tree height generated from it. As a solution, the ITD was performed using the digital surface model (DSM) to detect the local maxima. Once the coordinate of the highest point of a tree was determined, these coordinates were used to retrieve the tree height from the CHM. As a result, the total height and crown diameter measurements reached errors of 1.44 m and 1.72 m, respectively. However, point cloud normalization was not the only probable source of variation. The field measurements were performed in March 2016, while the LiDAR data was acquired in June 2019. This represents a difference of 39 months between measurements. Evidently, adult trees are not expected to grow too much, specially when a slow-growth native species such as araucaria is concerned. Yet, this discrepancy needs to be considered when assessing the results. Hence, it was not possible to determine if the height and crown measurements were affected by the field measurements procedure (field measurement errors), the time difference between LiDAR and field data acquisitions or the methodology proposed in this study. Lastly, considering that the DBH was estimated from the total height and crown diameter, these inconsistencies are carried over to the estimates, yielding a DBH error of 9.89 cm. Araucaria trees are easy to distinguish from other tree species when observed from nadir. Due to the unique format of the species crown, a novel approach based on the branch distribution from an orthogonal view was proposed to automatically detect araucaria trees.After implementing and testing this approach, an overall accuracy of 93% was achieved. During the analysis, a difficulty index was introduced, in which trees easily distinguishable were assigned difficulty level 1 (easy), partially occluded ones received index 2 (medium) and severely occluded but still partially visible ones were assigned index 3 (hard). The highest accuracy was achieved with difficulty index 1 with overall accuracy of 98%, followed by 92% and 89% for difficulty index 2 and 3, respectively. If the difficulty index is ignored and the tree detection is assessed as a whole, an overall accuracy of 93% was reached. The methodology demonstrated to be robust, considering it relies solely on branches to determine the tree location. Nonetheless, limitations were observed with this approach. Considering that branches are the main element of this methodology, if they are not visible, trees are simply not detected. Adult araucaria trees present visible branches, which are commonly very thick (reaching up to 30 cm in diameter based on field observations). However, a high density of secondary and tertiary branches may interfere in the visibility of primary branches. Lastly, adjacent trees with branches similarly oriented also result in omissions, since they seem merged in the image, resulting in only one branch being detected. Conclusions: In this thesis, evidences demonstrated that LiDAR data can be used for A. angustifolia mapping and forest parameter estimation. Moreover, when considering the test sites addressed in this study, the addition of spectral information didn't significantly improve the mapping, leading to the conclusion that LiDAR data alone is enough for A. angustifolia mapping. Lastly, when working with native species, conventional methods might not be the best practice and approaching issues with different perspectives can yield new solutions. The new proposed method is a clear example of that. By using the species unique morphology as basis, the approach has showed promising results, which could be further improved in future research. This thesis constitutes the first study to provide an in-depth analysis on the use of LiDAR data to automatically map Araucaria angustifolia in natural dense forest formations. Moreover, considering the current situation of the species, this work contributes to a better understanding of the challenges when working with araucaria trees as well as working with complex forest structures. In addition, further work can be developed based on this study, which could provide even more accurate large-scale information to lawmakers, researchers and specialists when developing new strategies to sustainably manage the species. ; Hintergrund: Der Atlantische Wald ist eines, wenn nicht das vielfältigste ökosystem der Erde. Der Atlantische Wald beherbergt ungefähr 250 Arten von Säugetieren (55 endemisch), 340 von Amphibien (90 endemisch), 1.023 von Vögeln (188 endemisch) und etwa 20.000 von Bäume, von denen die Hälfte endemisch sind. Leider sind mehrere dieser Arten derzeit vom Aussterben bedroht. Darunter befindet sich auch eine Baumart aus der Familie der Araukariengewächse (Araucariaceae), die Araucaria angustifolia genannt wird. Dieser Baum, der als Brasilianische Kiefer oder einfach Araukaria bekannt ist, nimmt die höhere Waldschicht ein und prägt die Landschaft des Hochlandes des Atlantischen Waldes und gilt daher als Symbol der südlichen Region Brasiliens. Araukarienbäume sind hinsichtlich der Nicht-Holznutzung rentabel. Diese Baumart produziert einen sehr nahrhaften Samen (pinhão auf Portugiesisch), der von Mensch und Tier geschätzt wird. Um das Saatgut herum gibt es einen kulturell etablierten Markt, der leider nicht genügend entwickelt ist, um einen ausreichenden wirtschaftlichen Ertrag zu ermöglichen. Araukarienbäume sind auch wegen ihrer hohen Qualität und ihres ästhetisch ansprechenden Holzes attraktiv, was in den 1960er und 1970er Jahren zu ihrer intensiven Erforschung führte. Heute gilt die Baumart als kritisch gefährdet und ist gesetzlich gegen illegalen Holzeinschlag geschützt. Solche restriktiven Gesetze haben jedoch zu einer weiteren Bedrohung der Baumart geführt. Im Wissen um die rechtlichen Schwierigkeiten, einen gewachsenen Araukarienbaum von ihrem Grundstück zu schlagen, entfernen Landbesitzer neue natürliche Sämling. Es wurden Praktiken zur Förderung anderer nachhaltiger Nutzungen der Art vorgeschlagen. Dennoch kann der Gesetzgeber in Zusammenarbeit mit Forschern und Spezialisten nur auf der Grundlage detaillierter Daten über die Art Gesetze erlassen. Um solch überragende Informationen in den gesamten Vorkommensgebiete der Baumarten (ca. 200.000 km 2 ) zu sammeln, sehen sich Spezialisten mit einer extrem stark fragmentierten Umwelt konfrontiert, was operative und finanzielle Schwierigkeiten bei der Beschaffung der Daten verursacht. Ziele: Das Ziel dieser Doktorarbeit war die Einführung einer Methodik zur automatischen Erkennung und Messung von Araucaria angustifolia in komplexen einheimischen Waldformationen im Süden Brasiliens. Die vorgeschlagene Methodik stützt sich auf light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sowie auf hochauflösende Luftbilder. Normalerweise wird die Kartierung und Messung von Baumarten durch die Kombination von LiDAR und spektralen Informationen (z.B. Luft-, Satelliten- oder Drohnenbildern) durchgeführt. In dieser Studie wurde jedoch eine Analyse durchgeführt, um festzustellen, ob tatsächlich die Notwendigkeit besteht, spektrale Informationen zur Kartierung von Araukarienbäumen hinzuzufügen. Schließlich wurde eine alternative Methode vorgeschlagen, bei der keine LiDAR-Daten erforderlich sind. Als Alternative zu den LiDAR-basierten Methoden wurde eine neue Methode zur Erkennung von Araukarien aus unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) entwickelt. Forschungsfragen: 1. Ist spektrale Information für die Kartierung von A. angustifolia zwingend erforderlich oder reichen LiDAR-Daten allein aus? 2. Können A. angustifolia-Bäume in dichter Waldbildung mit Hilfe von Fernerkundungsdaten erkannt und gemessen werden? 3. Wenn Araukarienbäume erkennbar sind, können Baumparameter (z.B. Gesamthöhe, Brusthöhendurchmesser (BHD) und Kronenfläche) mit ausreichender Genauigkeit erfasst werden? 4. Können A. angustifolia-Bäume anhand ihrer Morphologie, d.h. der Verteilung der Äste, erkannt werden? Versuchsflächen und Daten: Die in dieser Arbeit analysierten Daten stammen aus einer Gemeinde namens Lages, im Bundesstaat Santa Catarina in der südlichen Region Brasiliens gelegen. Die beiden Versuchsflächen umfassen Fragmente des Atlantischen Waldes, wo die Zielart A. angustifolia zu finden ist, mit 38 bzw. 34 ha für das Versuchsfläche A bzw. B.Beide Versuchsflächen werden mit LiDAR-Daten mit einer durchschnittlichen Punktdichte von 14 Punkten/m2 und Luftbildern mit einer räumlichen Auflösung von 0,1 m abgedeckt. Die Datensätze wurden im selben Flug gesammelt, der im Juni 2019 durchgeführt wurde. Darüber hinaus standen Felddaten vom März 2016 von 10 Parzellen mit jeweils 0,2 ha (gesamte beprobte Fläche von 2 ha) zur Verfügung, die sich an Standort A befanden, wo alle Araukarienbäume innerhalb der Parzellen gemessen und georeferenziert wurden. Schließlich waren auch UAV-Bilder mit einem Bodenprobenabstand von 5 cm für Versuchsfläche A verfügbar, die ebenfalls im März 2016 gesammelt wurden. Methodischer Ansatz: Die in dieser Arbeit implementierte Methodik bestand hauptsächlich aus zwei Teilen: (1) Kartierung von Araukarienbäumen und Schätzung von Wald-parametern mit Hilfe von LiDAR und Luftbildern; (2) Erkennung von Araukarienbäumen basierend auf der Asterkennung aus UAV-Bildern. 1. Zur Kartierung von Araukarienbäumen unter Verwendung von LiDAR und Luftbildern wurde eine Random Forest Klassifikation durchgeführt. Es wurde eine Untersuchung vorgenommen, um die Effizienz der Klassifikation bei ausschließlicher Verwendung von LiDAR-Daten und beim Hinzufügen spektraler Informationen festzustellen. Darüber hinaus wurde der Random Forest Klassifikator in Standort A trainiert und in Standort B getestet. Mit dem Ergebnis der Kartierung wurde eine Ausschnittsmaske generiert und zum Ausschnitt der LiDAR-Punktwolke verwendet. Die abgeschnittene Punktwolke wurde im Rahmen des Einzelbaumnachweises (ITD) als Mittel zur Bestimmung der Anzahl der Stämme pro Hektar, der Gesamtbaumhöhe und der Kronenfläche sowie zur Schätzung des DBH bewertet. 2. Eine neue Methodik wurde als Alternative für LiDAR-basierte Ansätze entwickelt. Der Ansatz besteht darin, Araukarienäste zu erkennen und ihre Ausrichtung zur Bestimmung der Baumposition von A. angustifolia-Bäumen zu verwenden. Der Ansatz wurde mit Hilfe einer Computer Vision Methode namens Probabilistic Hough Transformation in Verbindung mit anderen Bildverarbeitungsverfahren wie morphologischer Filterung und Bildsegmentierung umgesetzt. Durch den Einsatz solcher Techniken wurden die äste als Linien erkannt, die dann zur Berechnung der Astausrichtung bis hin zur Baumposition verwendet werden konnten. Ergebnisse und Diskussion: LiDAR-Daten werden häufig für die Baumkartierung von kommerziellen Nadelbäumen verwendet und wurden in vielen Ländern operationell für Inventurzwecke eingesetzt wie zum Beispiel Finnland, Schweden, Kanada, Vereinigte Staaten und andere. Weniger haben jedoch erkundet die Anwendungen von LiDAR-Daten in komplexen Umgebungen wie dem Atlantischen Wald. Der Grund dafür ist vor allem die mehrschichtige Struktur in einheimischen Wäldern und das hohe Vorkommen von Baumokklusion, die sich auf die Anzahl der Stämme auswirkt, ein wichtiger Waldparameter für die Inventurzwecke. In dieser Studie wurden auch solche Gründe festgestellt, sogar unter Berücksichtigung der Kronengröße der Araukarien und der Tatsache, dass sich die erwachsenen Individuen der Art normalerweise in der oberen Schicht des Walddaches befinden. Dennoch konnte festgestellt werden, dass die Mehrzahl der Bäume von A. angustifolia erfolgreich mit LiDAR-Daten kartiert wurde. Darüber hinaus bestand genügend statistischer Nachweis, um festzustellen, dass bei der Kartierung von A. angustifolia, bei der nur LiDAR-Daten und kombinierte Spektralinformationen und LiDAR-Daten verwendet wurden, kein Unterschied festgestellt wurde. Beim Vergleich beider Karten, die aus der Random Forest Klassifikation abgeleitet wurden, konnte eine ähnliche Leistung beider Datensätze beobachtet werden. Für die Standorte A und B wurden Gesamtgenauigkeiten von 90,8% bzw. 89,8% beobachtet. Obwohl ausgewachsene Araukarienbäume normalerweise im oberen Kronendach des Waldes zu sehen sind, wäre eine einfachere Operation wie eine Höhengrenze nicht in der Lage, Araukarienbäume von den übrigen Arten zu trennen. Dies geschieht, da es viele andere Baumarten gibt, die das gleiche Höhenniveau besetzen, was zu Kommissionsfehlern führen könnte. Daher war eine überwachte Klassifikation wie RF effizient, um den übrigen Baumarten zu entfernen. Bezüglich der Anzahl der Stämme, nach Durchführung eines ITD-Ansatzes mit lokaler Maxima-Erkennung wurde eine Gesamtgenauigkeit von 73,34% erreicht. Daraus ergab sich eine Dichte von 43 Stämmen/ha, die unter dem aus den Felddaten berechneten 61 Stämmen/ha liegt. Dieser Unterschied ist in hauptsächlich auf die Baumokklusion zurückzuführen, die oft in einer mehrschichtigen Struktur von komplexen natürlichen Umweltumgebungen wie Araukarienwäldern beobachtet wird. Wenn ein Vergleich mit den tatsächlich sichtbaren Bäumen durchgeführt wird, würde sich die Genauigkeit auf 87,9% erhöhen. Bei Betrachtung des oberen sichtbaren Kronendaches des Waldes, der durch leinere Bäume in der Nähe der dominanten Bäume verursacht wird, ergibt sich immer noch ein Fehler von 12,1%, der zu weiteren Auslassungen führt. Eine der Herausforderungen bei der Forschung mit LiDAR und Araukarien ist die Morphologie der Baumarten. Araukarien besitzen eine einzigartige Kronenform, die in der Literatur häufig als einem Weinglas oder einem umgekehrten Kronleuchter ähnlich beschrieben. Allerdings ist eine Kombination aus unebenem Gelände und unregelmäßig geformten Kronen führt zu einer verzerrten normalisierten Punktwolke, die sich folglich auf die daraus generierte Gesamthöhe des Baumes auswirkt. Als Lösung wurde das ITD mittels des digitalen Oberflächenmodells (DSM) durchgeführt, um die local maxima zu ermitteln. Nach der Bestimmung der Koordinaten des höchsten Punktes eines Baumes wurden diese Koordinaten verwendet, um die Baumhöhe aus dem CHM abzurufen. Infolgedessen ergaben die Messungen der Gesamthöhe und des Kronendurchmessers Fehler von 1,44 m bzw. 1,72 m. Die Normalisierung der Punktwolken war jedoch nicht die einzige wahrscheinliche Quelle von Abweichungen. Die Feldmessungen wurden im März 2016 durchgeführt, während die LiDAR-Daten im Juni 2019 erfasst wurden. Dies entspricht ein Unterschied von 39 Monate zwischen den Messungen. Offensichtlich wird von erwachsenen Bäumen nicht erwartet, dass sie zu viel wachsen, besonders wenn es sich um eine langsam wachsende einheimische Baumart wie die Araukarien handelt. Diese Abweichung muss jedoch bei der Bewertung der Ergebnisse berücksichtigt werden. Daher war es nicht möglich festzustellen, ob die Höhen- und Kronenmessungen durch das Feldmessverfahren (Feldmessfehler), die Zeitdifferenz zwischen LiDAR und Felddatenerfassung oder die in dieser Studie vorgeschlagene Methodik beeinflusst wurden. Letztendlich da die BHD aus der Gesamthöhe und dem Kronendurchmesser geschätzt wurde, werden diese Abweichungen auf die Schätzungen übertragen, was einen BHD-Fehler von 9,89 cm ergibt. Araukarienbäume sind einfach von anderen Baumarten zu unterscheiden, wenn sie von Nadir aus beobachtet werden. Aufgrund des einzigartigen Kronenformats der Baumart wurde ein neuartiger Ansatz vorgeschlagen, der auf der Astverteilung aus orthogonaler Sicht basiert, um Araukarienbäume automatisch zu erkennen. Nach der Implementierung und dem Testen dieses Ansatzes wurde eine Gesamtgenauigkeit von 93% erreicht. Beider Analyse wurde ein Schwierigkeitsindex eingeführt, bei dem leicht unterscheidbare Bäume der Schwierigkeitsstufe 1 (leicht) zugeordnet wurden, teilweise okkludierte erhielten den Index 2 (mittel) und stark okkludierte, aber noch teilweise sichtbare Bäume den Index 3 (hart). Die höchste Genauigkeit von 98% wurde beim Schwierigkeitsindex 1 erreicht, gefolgt von 92% und 89% beim Schwierigkeitsindex 2 und 3. Wenn man den Schwierigkeitsindex ignoriert und die Baumerkennung als Ganzes bewertet, wurde eine Gesamtgenauigkeit von 93% erreicht. Die Methode erwies sich als robust, da sie sich zur Bestimmung des Baumstandortes ausschließlich auf äste stützt. Trotzdem wurden bei diesem Ansatz Einschränkungen beobachtet. Da die äste das Hauptelement dieser Methodik sind, wenn sie nicht sichtbar sind, werden Bäume einfach nicht erkannt. Ausgewachsene Araukarienbäume weisen sichtbare Äste auf, die in der Regel sehr dick sind (bis zu 30 cm Durchmesser, basierend auf Feldbeobachtungen). Eine hohe Dichte von sekundären und tertiären ästen kann jedoch die Sichtbarkeit der primären äste behindern. Schließlich führen auch benachbarte Bäume mit ähnlich orientierten ästen zu Auslassungen, da sie im Bild verschmolzen erscheinen, so dass nur ein Ast erkannt wird. Schlussfolgerungen: In dieser Arbeit wurde nachgewiesen, dass LiDAR-Daten für die Kartierung von A. angustifolia und die Schätzung von Waldparametern verwendet werden können. Darüber hinaus hat die Hinzufügung von Spektralinformationen bei der Betrachtung der in dieser Studie behandelten Versuchsflächen die Kartierung nicht signifikant verbessert, was zu der Schlussfolgerung führt, dass LiDAR-Daten allein für die Kartierung von A. angustifolia ausreichen. Letztlich, wenn es um die Arbeit mit einheimischen Baumarten geht, sind konventionelle Methoden möglicherweise nicht die beste Praxis, und die Herangehensweise an Probleme mit unterschiedlichen Perspektiven kann zu neuen Lösungen führen. Die neue vorgeschlagene Methode ist ein klares Beispiel dafür. Durch die Verwendung der einzigartigen Morphologie der Baumart als Grundlage hat der Ansatz vielversprechende Ergebnisse gezeigt, die in der zukünftigen Forschung weiter verbessert werden könnten. Diese Doktorarbeit stellt die erste Studie dar, die eine vertiefte Analyse über den Einsatz von LiDAR-Daten zur automatischen Kartierung von Araucaria angustifolia in natürlichen dichten Waldformationen liefert. Außerdem trägt diese Arbeit, unter Berücksichtigung der aktuellen Situation der Baumart, zu einem besseren Verständnis der Herausforderungen bei der Arbeit mit Araukarienbäumen sowie bei der Arbeit mit komplexen Waldstrukturen bei. Darüber hinaus können auf der Grundlage dieser Studie weitere Arbeiten entwickelt werden, die Gesetzgebern, Forschern und Spezialisten bei der Entwicklung neuer Strategien zur nachhaltigen Bewirtschaftung der Baumart noch genauere Informationen in großem Maßstab liefern könnten. ; dados LiDAR são suficientes para o mapeamento de A. angustifolia. Finalmente, quando se trabalha com espécies nativas, os métodos convencionais podem não ser a melhor prática e abordar problemas com perspectivas diferentes pode gerar novas soluções. O novo método proposto é um exemplo claro disso. Utilizando a morfologia única da espécie como base, a abordagem mostrou resultados promissores, que poderiam ser melhorados ainda mais em pesquisas futuras. Esta tese constitui o primeiro estudo a fornecer uma análise aprofundada sobre o uso de dados LiDAR para mapear automaticamente Araucaria angustifolia em formações florestais naturais densas. Além disso, considerando a situação atual da espécie, este trabalho contribui para uma melhor compreensão dos desafios ao trabalhar com araucárias, bem como ao trabalhar com estruturas florestais complexas. Além disso, mais pesquisas podem ser desenvolvidas com base neste estudo, as quais poderiam fornecer informações ainda mais precisas em larga escala a legisladores, pesquisadores e especialistas, auxiliando no desenvolvimento de novas estratégias para administrar a espécie de forma sustentável.
Having reached the mark of 2,118 delegates, Barack Obama has gone from candidate in the closest head-to-head primary ever to presumptive nominee. Appropriately, he will accept the nomination at the August convention in Denver, on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King's "I have a dream" speech. This is political history in the making: he is the first African-American to be the head of the presidential ticket of a major party. After years of angst and self doubt, there is a renewed optimism on the street, and a whole new group of voters has been mobilized. However, Obama, who has run on a message of hope and change, faces an extremely difficult path ahead. His vulnerabilities have become apparent in the succession of events over the last few weeks of this long primary season.He lost nine of the last fourteen primaries, including South Dakota, where he was favored (55% to 45%), and Puerto Rico (68% to 42%); he has had to cut ties with his Church due to its radicalism and anti-establishment stance, and, one day after Obama claimed the nomination, one of his top fund-raisers was found guilty of wire fraud and money laundering in a federal court in Chicago. Now his campaign will have to overcome this dry patch and move forward to the greater challenge, that of defeating McCain. His next task at hand is to choose a vice-president, and this, too, poses a serious dilemma.In the first place, Hillary Rodham-Clinton took five days to acknowledge defeat, giving cause for some speculation that she is pressing for the vice-presidential spot with the implied threat that she will continue fighting all the way to the convention. She has the right to do so, if we consider the fact that she has won all of the big states and probably a larger number of the popular vote (around 18 million). And, as she not so humbly claims, she is the more experienced candidate who could better stand up to McCain. On the other hand, there is great concern that Barack's image as the unconventional, charismatic, post-modern Washington outsider will be damaged if he chooses her. So the decision will require reflection, pondering and a lot of vetting interviews of alternative candidates.Much ink will be spent in speculating why Hillary lost the primary. Here, I will just offer a few reflections, leaving the second guessing of the way her campaign was run to those who will manically analyze every decision taken, every tactic used, every gesture, every word, and will have their eureka moments when finding the flaw, the error, the underestimation that brought her down. And yet, quite often fate, luck and other imponderables irrevocably determine the outcome of a narrow race, regardless of the brilliant strategies of the campaign managers, advisers and other experts. It has already been said that Rodham Clinton started her campaign as the inevitable candidate, as the incumbent, and that her sense of entitlement turned many voters away. At the same time, her main message was one of change, of moving forward, of undoing the Bush legacy, but Obama co-opted that message, and he was much more convincing as an agent of change. Hillary began her campaign running not as a woman, but as the most hardened and experienced, candidate that would deliver both peace and prosperity to all Americans. Obama ran from the beginning as the post-racial candidate and this theme remained constant throughout his campaign. She was trying to woo independents and disaffected Republicans and had thus to prove that she was as tough as John McCain. Obama had no intention of treading down that path, which he derided as part of the Washington game. Instead, he stuck fearlessly to his convictions. It was this independent streak, his absolute confidence in the soundness of his cool, post-modern world vision that was irresistible to the young voters. This should not obfuscate the fact that both ran historic campaigns and have unremittingly shattered the barriers of gender and race in American politics at the highest level. Still, the promise of change was more credible when pledged by the young unknown than by the seasoned insider. With no substantial philosophical differences between the two, the richer contrast was all inspiration and charisma versus politics as usual.First of all, we need to consider a fundamental fact: even if the media and their respective campaigns have played up the differences between the two candidates, their basic policy choices and ideologies are one and the same. From health care to fiscal policy, from education to foreign policy, there may be some minimal disagreements but they both share the basic ideology of more equitable economic distribution, protection of civil rights and overall tolerance toward others that typify Democrats in the United States. Some observers may bring up Hillary's vote in favor of the Iraqi invasion of 2003 as evidence of an important disagreement, and also a cause of her loss of popularity in the early stages of the campaign. That certainly did her harm, which is ironic because, in academic and political circles alike, few believe it represents her real conviction. As a Senator for New York and a future presidential candidate, she carefully chose to vote in favor of a war that, in October 2002, had a high rate of approval among the population, who had clearly bought the Republican idea that the invasion "over there" would make us safer "over here". At the time, she hedged that gamble against the fact that "there was enough evidence" Saddam was piling up WMDs, which had little to do with 9-11 and Al Qaeda. But a scared populace is an easy target for deception and false reassurances. Intent on proving her masculine toughness on security issues, she fell into the Republican trap. Five years down the road, this carefully measured decision came back to haunt her, and the controversy over that vote generated an enormous surge of support for Obama that might have created the momentum that helped him win the early contests, namely, the Iowa caucuses and the wins of February 5th. This momentum, coupled with the televised debates, proved he was a worthy, viable candidate; it brought the media to his side and attracted new voters. He irradiated a cool self-assurance, a subdued charm, an understated intelligence that was indeed enchanting to young voters, to black voters and to hard core Democrats tired of the vitriol of Washington. The country, it seemed, was ready for Obama. His timing was impeccable and had the effect of making Rodham-Clinton look tired, strident and blasé. The media had found its golden boy and started treating Hillary as the intruder, who would do anything to prevent a new Camelot.After his initial sweep, Hillary slowly started to recover and as the campaign progressed, her message became more focused and she found her voice. She switched strategies and, from being the more experienced candidate that would deliver peace and prosperity to all Americans, she turned back to her traditional constituencies, namely, women and blue-collar workers. Speaking to her strengths, namely, her devotion to public service and her familiarity with the intricacies of policy-making, she became a great communicator that invariably connected with her audiences. And she started winning again.Even those that dislike her have to acknowledge her skills as a campaigner, her endurance and poise under tremendous pressure and, more importantly, her dramatic recovery of the popular vote towards the end of the campaign, which made her claim to bring this battle to the convention quite legitimate. Her wins in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, as well as her immense support in the Hispanic community as shown by the Puerto Rican vote, cannot be discounted by the party when it looks ahead to the national election in November.One should bear in mind that these primaries were the closest contest in primary history, and in spite of having the whole media establishment against her from the beginning, Hillary did not at any time show signs of faltering or self-doubt and never allowed herself to make the road easier for Obama. She stayed on message, speaking to the issues, proving she was ready to become the first woman president. Both her competency and her warmth gained her a huge following. But once she lost the media she also started losing the super-delegates from inside the party. One after the other, the big names in the party started lining up behind Obama: Tom Daschle, Ted and Caroline Kennedy, Christopher Dodd, Bill Richardson, and towards the end, even John Edwards.This took many by surprise, and is related to another phenomenon that very few had perceived before: the animosity that the Clintons, especially Bill, provoke from within the party itself. Although Bill and Hillary are the most powerful brand name in the Democratic Party, there is a surprising amount of anger against them that had remained latent till now. Bill Clinton's harsh remarks in South Carolina primary astonished many and may have hurt her campaign, reinforcing the perception that the Clintons would do anything, even play the race card, in order to win the White House.Then there was the question of demographics and identity politics. Although Rodham-Clinton attempted to run as the candidate for all, after the first losses and as she increasingly won the vote of women and blue collar workers, she turned to her natural constituencies. She started running as a woman and as the champion of the working class. In her new more populist persona, she also won among Jews, Catholics and rural workers. Obama did best among college educated youth, intellectuals and black voters. In other words, they both win the identity vote. Identity has come up often during the campaign, and not in a positive way. Irate at the way the media were treating Hillary and indulging Obama especially in interviews (there was even a sketch in Saturday Night Live that parodied this noticeable difference), Geraldine Ferraro accused the media of sexism and went as far as saying that Obama would not be treated with so much deference if he was a white man. After disproportionate outcry by the media and the public, Clinton had to fire Ferraro as her advisor. Thus, bringing up sexism completely backfired for Hillary.The irony once again, is that Identity Politics is most likely the prism through which both Hillary and Obama, see America: as a society divided by categories of class, gender, race, ethnicity and sexual preference. His as well as her policies are informed by this view. But Obama skillfully downplays it and tries to portray himself as the candidate for all Americans who want change and are tired of Washington politics. He does not deny that race and gender play a role in politics but prefers not to bring it up since it is "not productive". His strategy has paid off so far, but this topic will certainly be revisited in the national election. Due to his background and life experience, McCain has a very different view based on patriotism and service to the country, on individual responsibility and a common civic culture. He will find a way to turn the notion of Identity Politics against Obama, who, in spite of his unifying message, often speaks about redressing balances and ending injustice.Finally, the closeness of the race and the resilience of these two formidable candidates were again in display towards its end, and led to a new critical stage. The momentum that had carried Obama through the early and middle stages started to weaken. As time went by, more scrutiny brought up the issue of his membership in a radical Black Liberation Theology Church, the (inane) fact that he did not wear a US flag pin on his lapel (a symbol of patriotism that became particularly important after 9-11, when even academics came under no small degree of peer pressure to wear one), and this past week, the conviction by a Chicago federal jury of former fund-raiser and friend, Antoin Retzko.As momentum weakened, and as Clinton seemed to resurrect and come closer to Obama in the delegate count, party rules regarding delegate selection became more important . Because in most primaries there has been an early front-runner, and because the last primary contest that had to be taken all the way to the convention without a presumptive nominee was in 1976, very few party leaders and even fewer journalists are aware of the rules. As they began to play out, we were all submitted to a crash course on these intra-party rules. The Democratic Party has a centralized structure, so all states play by the same rules, and its selection system is based on proportional representation, the most democratic form of representation: within each state, any candidate that reaches a threshold of 15% of votes is allocated delegates proportionally to the vote. This, while it is better for representation, tends to prolong the race and make it closer. While Clinton was recovering and making important gains, Obama still continued to pick up a few delegates here and there, and the media kept its constant drum roll in his favor. Super-delegates were swayed to his side, irrevocably. In contrast, Republicans have a decentralized structure so that each state establishes its own rules, and most choose a winner-take-all selection system. This system, while less democratic and representative, enabled them to have a clear winner by March, with all the advantages that that entails.This year a very peculiar situation arose out of Michigan and Florida, where the state governments scheduled the primaries too early, in breach of the Democratic Party rules, so the Democratic National Committee determined they would not seat their delegates. There were 313 delegates at stake. Obama withdrew his name from the ballot in Michigan, and did not campaign in Florida. Clinton won both. At that time nobody thought this issue would become decisive for the nomination, but in such a close race, it certainly did. Last weekend the DNC met with representative so both sides and settled on a formula that allocated delegates to both in a very non-scientific way. It gave each of those delegated half a vote at the convention. While the formula was accepted by both sides, it has been perceived as a bonus for Obama, whose name was not even on the ballot in Michigan and yet he still got delegates allocated. This may still come up again at the National Convention in August. Many factors have thus combined to make Obama the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party. In addition to momentum and rules we should also consider the fortunate pairing of Obama to the spirit of the times. The timing for an unconventional candidate could not have been better, and he emerged as the prophetic leader the times demanded. His demeanor, his background, and his non-assuming attitude, all make for the perfect post-modern candidate. The public embraced him and the media anointed him. Now, the question still remains, is his "gift of grace" strong enough to unify America? Can he summon the support he needs to win a national election? Given the complex electoral system based on state votes and an electoral college, and not on the popular vote, can he win the major states and the swing states?Here is where the selection of a vice-president becomes crucial.There is a big movement both from the grassroots and from Clintonites inside the party (yes, there are still some left!) to pressure Obama to pick Hillary as running mate. There are of course, both huge advantages and dismal disadvantages for Obama to ponder in his selection. His first consideration must be to win the election, but he also needs to be able to govern, once he wins.Hillary would bring in those votes that have eluded Obama: mature women, blue collar, rural. Seventy-six of her supporters want her to be Vice-president. She energizes audiences and has won the hearts of all those groups above-mentioned. They feel very strongly about her place in History and demand respect for their candidate. Some may not even come out to vote if Obama's ticket does not include her. She would also help win the big states (she won them all, among them California, Texas and New York) and the swing states, noticeable among them, Ohio, that determined Bush's victory in 04. On the other hand, she does evoke the past in the minds of many voters, and she is now undoubtedly a Washington insider (in fact, her experience has been counted as both an asset and a liability in this sense). She would distort Obama's image as the unconventional candidate, and his message of change and hope may be, if not lost, at least diminished.Insofar as governing, their ideologies and policy positions are perfectly compatible, if not identical, so that would not constitute a problem. She has been studying the intricacies of policy and politics since she was a university student at Wellesley College. She is capable, efficient, convincing and tireless. She is experienced in navigating the meandering straits of policy making, and can muster bipartisan support with her well-reasoned arguments.Another often-mentioned handicap is Bill Clinton himself. With his larger than life personality, can he play prince consort? Or would he be the one that governs behind the scenes, and have his own shadow cabinet, Cheney-style? His reputation has suffered a lot lately, not any more because of that infamous blue dress but because he has not disclosed the list of donors to his library, among which there allegedly are several Middle Eastern governments. There is real vitriol against him, and that is directly transferred to Hillary.For now, both candidates seem to be catching their breaths.Hillary postponed her concession speech for as long as possible, some say to put pressure on Obama to include her in the ticket. Barack, on his part, has quietly named a vetting team for a vice-presidential search. Caroline Kennedy is among its members, as is Eric Holden, President Clinton's former attorney- general. It is headed by Jim Johnson, former Chairman of Fannie Mae, who vetted VPs for John Kerry and Walter Mondale. After exhaustive interviews and background checks, Obama will decide.In the last two months of the campaign, the pundits were prone to repeating that the "math" was against Hillary. This was a gross oversimplification of a race that was characterized by peculiar circumstances and surprises at every turn, and one which was less about math than about intangibles: momentum, media frenzy, rules, emotions, charisma and zeitgeist . In the end, however, it may all very well come down to the "math": if Barack can be convinced that he needs Hillary to win against McCain, then he will pick her as his VP and put the rest of his concerns aside. This will also heal party wounds and bring into the fold her loyal constituencies. But public opinion is fickle, politics is an inexact science and many times emotions can trump the best thought- out and scientifically devised plans. Like Sisyphus rolling the boulder up the mountain, Obama may find he has to prove himself all over again and then come out empty-handed in November.In the meantime, and just for good measure, Obama, the "transformative candidate" is now wearing a US flag pin on his lapel.Puerto Ricans do not have the right to vote in national elections due to the "associated state "status, but they can vote in primary elections.This dynamic in the relationship between momentum and rules has been pointed out in a recent article by Jason Bello and Robert Shapiro, published in the Political Science Quarterly, vol. 123 No.1 Spring 08.Super delegates are unpledged party leaders who do not have to declare their presidential preferences until balloting takes place at the ConventionSenior Lecturer, Department of Political Science and Geography Director, ODU Model United Nations Program Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
Pädagogische Fachkräfte nutzen Social Media-Plattformen als professionelle Handlungsräume. Diese Nutzung umfasst die Grundformen pädagogischen Handelns, wie Arrangieren, Animieren und Informieren/Beraten. "Wenn ich als Pädagogikprofessor in einer Straßenbahn Eltern Ratschläge gebe, wie sie mit einem offensichtlich übermüdeten Kind umgehen sollen, dann handele ich vermutlich anmaßend, aber nicht professionell, denn die Tram ist nicht der Ort meiner Profession." (Giesecke 1997: 47) Wie sieht es aus, wenn die Orte pädagogischer Profession nun aber gezielt ausgedehnt werden, indem pädagogische Fachkräfte in Sozialen Onlinenetzwerken (SONW) pädagogisch agieren? SONW werden somit zu neuen pädagogischen Handlungsräumen. Der Beitrag zeigt anhand ausgewählter Fallbeispiele, wie SONW von pädagogischen Fachkräften der Offenen Kinder- und Jugendarbeit (OKJA) als pädagogische Handlungsräume genutzt werden. Noch nie zuvor haben so viele junge Menschen und Erwachsene das Internet täglich genutzt (mpfs 2017; Projektgruppe ARD/ZDF–Multimedia 2017). Angesichts dieser hohen Bedeutung stellt sich die Frage, inwiefern auch die Soziale Arbeit die Potenziale des Internets und besonders die Potenziale von SONW für sich nutzen kann. Eine Vorreiterrolle bezüglich der Nutzung von SONW als pädagogische Handlungsräume nehmen die pädagogischen Fachkräfte der OKJA ein (JFF 2011). Zunächst wird in diesem Beitrag anhand einiger Situationen aus der OKJA verdeutlicht, wie SONW als pädagogische Handlungsräume genutzt werden. Die verwendeten Beispiele entstammen qualitativen Interviews mit Fachkräften, die im Rahmen des Dissertationsprojekts der Autorin geführt wurden. Der anschließende Abschnitt beschäftigt sich mit der Frage nach der Wahrnehmung und Artikulation von SONW als pädagogische Handlungsräume durch die Fachkräfte. In einer Zusammenfassung werden die geschilderten Situationen hinsichtlich der Grundformen pädagogischen Handelns nach Giesecke kategorisiert. Der Artikel schließt mit einer Positionierung zu den Herausforderungen durch SONW und einem Ausblick. Exemplarische Situationen der Nutzung von SONW Im Folgenden werden ausgewählte Situationen der alltäglichen Nutzung von SONW und deren pädagogische Implikationen vorgestellt. Der erste Beispielkomplex zeigt dies am Beispiel der Postings von Jugendlichen. Dadurch, dass die Jugendarbeiterin Clara auf Facebook mit den Jugendlichen befreundet ist, erfährt sie von Beleidigungen und Streits und hat die Möglichkeit Einfluss zu nehmen: "Dann hab ich gemerkt, die fängt dann an mit der zu chatten und auf die Startseite: 'Und du bist so doof' und haste nicht gesehen [zu schreiben]. Und dann konnte ich natürlich im Vorfeld schon eingreifen. Und wenn sie dann kamen, dann hatte ich eine Information, die ich sonst nicht gehabt hätte und hab sie mir dann alle ins Büro geholt und hab das ganz offen angesprochen." Bei Streits zu intervenieren ist für die pädagogischen Fachkräfte in der OKJA alltägliche pädagogische Arbeit. In einem ersten Schritt wird die Situation beruhigt und in einem anschließenden Schritt mit den Beteiligten in einem pädagogischen Rahmen bearbeitet. Clara kann situativ entweder mittels Kommentar direkt in die Interaktion im SONW einsteigen oder zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt ein Gespräch in der Einrichtung forcieren. Sie bewertet es als sehr hilfreich, Dinge indirekt zu erfahren, da sich das o.g. Mädchen vielleicht nicht von sich aus an sie gewandt hätte. Clara erhält durch ihre Facebook-Freundschaft auch Informationen, die nicht explizit an sie adressiert wurden, somit obliegt es ihrer pädagogischen Kompetenz, sensibel mit diesen Informationen umzugehen und zu entscheiden, ob sie sie aktiv nutzt oder die Situation passiv beobachtet. Der Jugendarbeiter Felix hat ein Bild kommentiert, das zwei Mädchen gepostet hatten. Auf diesem Bild inszenieren sich die Mädchen auf Straßenbahnschienen sitzend. Felix schien es erforderlich dies zu hinterfragen: "'Okay, das ist nicht so ganz eindeutig, was wollt ihr mit diesem Foto sagen? Wollt ihr sagen, dass euch das Leben nicht mehr gefällt und ihr wartet darauf, dass die nächste Straßenbahn kommt und euch überfährt?'" Die Mädchen erfahren Selbstwirksamkeit, da der Jugendarbeiter auf das Foto reagiert. Durch das offene Thematisieren der Bildbotschaften werden sie zum Reflektieren ihres Handelns angehalten und somit Bildungsprozesse angeregt. Felix ist zudem sensibilisiert und kann zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt ggf. eine Beratungs- oder Informationssituation initiieren. Informationen, die Clara aus den Postings der Jugendlichen über diese erhält, nutzt sie, um in der Anschlusskommunikation ein Gefühl emotionaler Verbundenheit hervorzurufen: "Und wenn du dann zum Beispiel bei Facebook schon gesagt hast: 'Finde ich toll, du hast ein neues Kleid'. Dann kommen sie an: 'Mensch Clara, wirklich? Ist das ein schönes Kleid? Sag mal ehrlich.'" Die Jugendarbeiterin reagiert hier wertschätzend auf Dinge, die für die Jugendlichen aktuell von Belang sind und zwar im Einzelfall, aber ebenso auch bereits durch die Tatsache, dass sie sich auf die Kommunikationsweise der Jugendlichen einlässt. Sie erzeugt dadurch ein positives Klima und ruft ein Gefühl emotionaler Verbundenheit hervor. Clara selbst beschreibt dies als Intensivierung der Kontakte. Oder anders gesagt: Sie nutzt die SONW unterstützend, um die Beziehung zu den Jugendlichen kontinuierlich weiterzuentwickeln. Diese Grundlagen für den Aufbau einer vertrauensvollen Arbeitsbeziehung werden von der Jugendarbeiterin arrangiert. Im zweiten Beispielkomplex werden die pädagogischen Implikationen und Intentionen anhand der Postings der pädagogischen Fachkräfte vorgestellt. Felix verfolgt sowohl pädagogische als auch administrative Absichten, wenn er Aktionen der Einrichtung mittels Bildpostings in SONW dokumentiert. Die Postings haben zum einen den Zweck ein Zugehörigkeitsgefühl zur Einrichtung zu fördern, indem gemeinsame Erlebnisse positiv erinnert werden und die Jugendlichen animiert werden, diese Emotionen zu reflektieren und zu verbalisieren. "Also wenn ein schönes Foto natürlich da ist und dann die Reaktion drauf kommen würde: 'Ja, ich war dabei. Das war total geil.' Dann wäre damit schon sehr viel erreicht." Außerdem möchte Felix einen Dialog über diese spezifische Aktion unter den Jugendlichen anregen. Er eröffnet mit der Kommentarfunktion eine niedrigschwellige Möglichkeit und motiviert die Jugendlichen damit, sich zu artikulieren. En passant erhält er durch die Kommentare Feedback und kann weitere entsprechende Angebote arrangieren. Zugleich hat sowohl die Dokumentation als auch der Anschlussdialog der Jugendlichen Signalcharakter nach außen: Außenstehende erhalten einen Eindruck von Angeboten und Zielgruppe sowie einen Eindruck davon, wie die pädagogischen Fachkräfte arbeiten; Lebendigkeit und Offenheit wird signalisiert. Sowohl Clara als auch Felix nutzen die SONW, um alltägliche pädagogische Angebote oder besondere Erlebnisse zu arrangieren und initiieren. Einen Vorteil sehen sie vor allem darin, dass sie mittels Postings in kurzer Zeit eine große Zielgruppe, nämlich alle mit der Einrichtung verbundenen Jugendlichen, erreichen können. Deutlich wird dies in Felix' Einrichtung, in der täglich das aktuelle pädagogische Angebot gepostet wird. Dadurch erreicht er auch eine Zielgruppe, die sonst nicht die Einrichtung besucht, sondern lediglich punktuell zu Außenveranstaltungen kommt. "Wie zum Beispiel jetzt im Sommer, wenn wir irgendwo Baden fahren dann wird das gepostet." Das Werben für den Badeausflug mittels Postings in SONW ermöglicht den o.g. Jugendlichen einen Zugang zur Einrichtung bzw. zu dem pädagogischen Personal und die Teilnahme an den pädagogischen Aktionen. Felix kann dies wiederum nutzen, um mit den Jugendlichen in Kontakt zu treten und Vertrauen aufzubauen. Außerdem kann eine andere Umgebung einen guten Rahmen bieten, um Barrieren zwischen den unterschiedlichen Besucher_innengruppen abzubauen und neue gruppendynamische Prozesse anzustoßen. Clara hatte beispielsweise Karten für die Castings von X Factor und Supertalent und postete: "Ich hab Karten. Wer will […] mitkommen?" bzw. "Ich hab keine Karten mehr." Sie ermöglicht den Jugendlichen damit, etwas Besonderes, nicht Alltägliches, zu erleben und schafft Möglichkeiten für Bildungsprozesse. Das Arrangieren der Teilnahme an besonderen Erlebnissen und pädagogischen Angeboten impliziert dementsprechend auch pädagogisches Handeln und ist über ein massenmediales Werben hinausgehend. Das pädagogische Handeln in SONW und SONW als pädagogische Handlungsräume Die vorherigen Explikationen haben den pädagogischen Gehalt im Umgang mit beiderseitigen Postings aufgezeigt. In einigen Beispielen wurde direkt im SONW interveniert, womit deutlich wurde, wie dieses als zusätzlicher, pädagogischer Handlungsraum der OKJA genutzt wird. Weiterführend stellt sich nun aber die Frage, inwiefern die beiden pädagogischen Fachkräfte die SONW als pädagogische Handlungsräume wahrnehmen und in dieser Deutlichkeit als solche bezeichnen. Nach ihrem Begriffsverständnis befragt, definiert Clara pädagogisches Handeln als "alles Handeln, was du in Bezug auf Jugendliche erzieherisch ausübst". Als Beispiel benennt sie das Eingehen auf Konflikte auf Basis von pädagogischen und entwicklungspsychologischen Fachkenntnissen, also "zu wissen, was damit gemeint sein kann und das dann eben ansprechen". Dabei verwendet sie einen aufrüttelnd-provokanten Sprachstil, sog. Modulationen (vgl. Cloos et al. 2009), um den Jugendlichen ihr Verhalten und dessen Konsequenzen bewusst zu machen. Für Clara findet sich diese Art pädagogischen Handelns fraglos auch in den SONW wieder. Sie verdeutlicht dies am weiteren Beispiel eines männlichen Jugendlichen, der sich in Bodybuilder-Pose fotografiert hat: "Und ich sage, 'Meine Güte, jetzt machste aber einen auf Muskelprotz!' und mach das mit so'nem Smiley hinten dran, so dass der eigentlich weiß, was ich damit meine." Auch hier verwendet sie Modulationen, um den Jugendlichen zur Reflexion seines Verhaltens anzuregen und ihm die Wirkungen des geposteten Bildes vor Augen zu führen. Zusätzlich hätte Clara die Möglichkeit die Interaktion auf Facebook für spätere Anschlusskommunikation innerhalb der Einrichtung zu verwenden. Auffällig an Claras Verständnis von pädagogischem Handeln ist vor allem, dass sie den Fokus im Schwerpunkt auf konflikthafte oder problematische Situationen richtet. Pädagogisches Handeln umfasst für sie somit korrigierendes Handeln. Darin unterscheidet sich ihre Definition von der Gieseckes. Dieser definiert pädagogisches Handeln als positive Beeinflussung des Menschen hin zu einer mündigen Persönlichkeit, indem man Gelegenheiten zu Bildungsprozessen bietet (vgl. 1997: 22ff.). Felix definiert pädagogisches Handeln als das Arrangieren von Workshops, das Animieren oder das Vermitteln von Toleranz in der Gruppe. Damit bezieht er sich allerdings lediglich auf die Face-to-Face-Arbeit innerhalb der Einrichtung, denn Felix bezweifelt, dass pädagogisches Handeln auf SONW übertragen werden kann: "Und bezogen auf Netzwerke lässt sich wirklich die Frage stellen, ist das eine Form von pädagogischem Handeln wenn ich das veröffentliche, die Angebote? Weil das ist ja wirklich eigentlich nur Öffentlichkeitsarbeit, Informationsarbeit". Obwohl er also durchaus in SONW pädagogisch agiert, reflektiert und artikuliert er dies nicht dementsprechend. Für ihn sind SONW weniger zusätzliche pädagogische Handlungsräume als vielmehr Werkzeuge, die administrative Aufgaben erleichtern. Auch Giesecke grenzt den Informationsoutput von Massenmedien von pädagogischem Handeln ab und hält fest, dieses finde immer von Angesicht zu Angesicht statt. Lediglich in den ggf. daran anschließend hergestellten, interaktiven Situationen könne pädagogisch gehandelt werden (1997: 47f.). Wie die Explikationen aber deutlich gemacht haben, ist dies auf Grund der Interaktivität von SONW heute keine grundlegende Bedingung für pädagogisches Handeln mehr. Felix nutz zwar in der Handlungspraxis diese Interaktivität, in der Reflexion und Artikulation spielt die Interaktivität jedoch keine Rolle. Anhand der beiden Fallbeispiele wird deutlich, dass die Reflexion pädagogischer Implikationen in der Nutzung von SONW nicht unbedingt die Praxis abbildet. Laut Giesecke ist der Gegenpol zum Handeln stets die Reflexion (1997: 45). Sein Konzept der Grundformen pädagogischen Handelns sieht er als Instrument, das Handeln zu reflektieren (1997: 17). Diese Grundformen (1997: 76ff.)1 dienen nun als Struktur, um das pädagogische Handeln der Explikationen reflektierend zu verdeutlichen. Arrangieren (1): Indem die pädagogischen Fachkräfte die vielfältigen Kommunikationskanäle von SONW nutzen, arrangieren sie die Voraussetzungen für vertrauensvolle Arbeitsbeziehungen oder arrangieren Situationen, die Bildungsprozesse ermöglichen. Animieren: Die pädagogischen Fachkräfte animieren die Jugendlichen zur Teilnahme an pädagogischen Arrangements wie Ausflügen und weiteren pädagogischen Situationen. Ebenso animieren sie die Jugendlichen sich in SONW zu artikulieren. Informieren/Beraten: Das Informieren und Beraten kann sich einerseits in den SONW abspielen, andererseits aber auch lediglich inhaltlich auf die SONW bezogen sein und offline/face-to-face stattfinden. Beide pädagogische Fachkräfte merken an, dass aus ihrer Sicht ein Face-to-Face-Gespräch aufgrund der Kanalreduktion nicht durch Nachrichten über SONW zu ersetzen und es daher wichtig sei, stets "zweigleisig" (Clara) zu arbeiten. Im Folgenden werden Herausforderungen und Reflexionsbedarfe, die sich aus den obigen Beispielen ergeben, erörtert. Herausforderungen und Ausblick SONW sind keine Jugendräume. Firmen sind dort ebenso präsent wie Erwachsene, die dort beruflich und privat netzwerken. Dementsprechend ist die Frage, ob sich pädagogische Fachkräfte in SONW aufhalten sollten, hinfällig (vgl. Stix 2014). Wichtiger ist es, einen Umgang miteinander zu entwickeln, der weder den pädagogischen Fachkräften noch den Jugendlichen zum Nachteil wird. Um die Jugendlichen zu erreichen, nutzen die pädagogischen Fachkräfte die bei jungen Menschen angesagten SONW-Angebote. Diese sind in der Regel kommerziell und wenig transparent oder reguliert, was den Umgang mit Nutzer_innendaten betrifft. Dies erfordert aus pädagogischer Sicht das Prüfen und Abwägen von Vor- und Nachteilen. Dementsprechend kann es nicht nur aufgrund der Kanalreduktion wichtig sein, ein Gespräch über ein sensibles Thema face-to-face zu führen und dies den Jugendlichen zu vermitteln. Ein reflektierter und sensibler Umgang mit Daten gilt auch für die Dokumentation von Aktionen, wie Felix ihn schildert. Beim Posten von Bildern muss er das Persönlichkeitsrecht der Jugendlichen beachten und prüfen, ob und ggf. welche Informationen möglicherweise unbeabsichtigt preisgegeben werden. Des Weiteren stellt sich die ethische Frage, inwiefern sich pädagogische Fachkräfte Informationen aktiv aus SONW besorgen und nutzen dürfen (vgl. Kutscher 2015). Eine weitere Herausforderung ergibt sich aus der Frage, ob nicht Jugendliche, die keinen Zugang zu SONW haben, ausgegrenzt oder benachteiligt werden. Dies zu reflektieren ist eine Aufgabe pädagogischer Professionalität. Die Nutzung von SONW birgt pädagogische Chancen. Zugleich ergeben sich daraus auch neue Verantwortungsdimensionen für das professionelle Handeln pädagogischer Fachkräfte. Das Handeln in SONW muss hinsichtlich möglicher negativer Konsequenzen für die Jugendlichen reflektiert werden. Die Entwicklung einer eigenen (medien-) pädagogischen Haltung sowie eine Rahmung durch Träger und kollegialer Austausch können dabei helfen. Pädagogisch professionell zu sein bedeutet auch, die Trends der jungen Menschen zu kennen und pädagogisch darauf zu reagieren. Im Falle von Social Media bewegt sich die Masse seit 2015 zu Angeboten wie WhatsApp und Instagram (mpfs 2016: 32f.). Es bleibt spannend, ob sich auch WhatsApp mit seinen anderen Strukturen mittelfristig als pädagogischer Handlungsraum etablieren und wie das pädagogische Handeln dort konkret aussehen wird – und welche Konflikte dies zu fachlichen Logiken und Standards mit sich bringt (vgl. Deutscher Bundestag 2013, S. 394), die zu reflektieren und in die Gestaltung pädagogischen Handelns einzubeziehen sind. (1) Ausgenommen das Unterrichten, von Giesecke verstanden als das Erklären von relativ komplexen Sachzusammenhängen in einem längeren Argumentationsprozess (1997: 79). ; Pedagogical professionals use social media platforms as professional spaces for action. This use includes the basic forms of pedagogical action, such as arranging, animating and informing/advising. "If I, as a professor of education, give advice to parents in a tram on how to deal with an obviously overtired child, then I am probably acting presumptuously, but not professionally, because the tram is not the place of my profession." (Giesecke 1997: 47) But how does it look when the places of pedagogical profession are now deliberately extended by pedagogical professionals acting pedagogically in online social networks (SONW)? SONW thus become new spaces for pedagogical action. The article uses selected case studies to show how SONW are used as pedagogical spaces of action by pedagogical professionals in open child and youth work (OKJA). Never before have so many young people and adults used the internet on a daily basis (mpfs 2017; Projektgruppe ARD/ZDF-Multimedia 2017). In view of this high importance, the question arises to what extent social work can also use the potentials of the internet and especially the potentials of SONW for itself. A pioneering role with regard to the use of SONW as pedagogical spaces for action is played by the pedagogical professionals of OKJA (JFF 2011). First of all, this article will illustrate how SONW are used as pedagogical spaces of action by means of some situations from OKJA. The examples used are taken from qualitative interviews with professionals conducted as part of the author's dissertation project. The following section deals with the question of how professionals perceive and articulate SONW as pedagogical spaces for action. In a summary, the situations described are categorised with regard to the basic forms of pedagogical action according to Giesecke. The article concludes with a position on the challenges posed by SONW and an outlook. Exemplary situations of SONW useIn the following, selected situations of everyday SONW use and their pedagogical implications are presented. The first set of examples shows this with the example of postings by young people. Because the youth worker Clara is friends with the young people on Facebook, she learns about insults and arguments and has the opportunity to influence them: "Then I noticed that she starts chatting with them and writes on the homepage: 'And you are so stupid' and hasn't seen it [to write]. And then of course I could intervene in advance. And then when they came, then I had information that I wouldn't have had otherwise and then I got them all into the office and addressed it quite openly." Intervening in disputes is everyday pedagogical work for the educational professionals in OKJA. In a first step, the situation is calmed down and then dealt with in a pedagogical framework with the parties involved. Clara can either directly enter into the interaction in the SONW by means of comments or force a conversation in the facility at a later time. She finds it very helpful to learn things indirectly, as the girl mentioned above might not have approached her on her own. Through her Facebook friendship, Clara also receives information that was not explicitly addressed to her, so it is up to her pedagogical competence to deal sensitively with this information and to decide whether she uses it actively or observes the situation passively. The youth worker Felix commented on a picture that two girls had posted. In this picture, the girls are staging themselves sitting on tram tracks. Felix seemed to need to question this: ''Okay, that's not so clear, what are you trying to say with this photo? Are you saying you don't like life anymore and you're waiting for the next tram to come and run you over?'" The girls experience self-efficacy as the youth worker responds to the photo. By openly thematising the picture messages, they are encouraged to reflect on their actions and thus educational processes are stimulated. Felix is also sensitised and can initiate a counselling or information situation at a later stage if necessary. Clara uses information that she receives about the young people from their postings to evoke a feeling of emotional connection in the follow-up communication: "And if, for example, you have already said on Facebook: 'I think it's great, you have a new dress'. Then they arrive: 'Gee Clara, really? Is that a nice dress? Tell me honestly.'" Here, the youth worker responds appreciatively to things that are of current concern to the young people, in individual cases, but also by the very fact that she engages with the young people's way of communicating. She thus creates a positive climate and evokes a feeling of emotional connection. Clara herself describes this as an intensification of contacts. Or in other words, she uses the SONW in a supportive way to continuously develop the relationship with the young people. These foundations for building a trusting working relationship are arranged by the youth worker. In the second set of examples, the pedagogical implications and intentions are presented based on the postings of the pedagogical professionals. Felix pursues both pedagogical and administrative intentions when he documents actions of the institution by means of picture postings in SONW. On the one hand, the postings have the purpose of promoting a sense of belonging to the institution by positively remembering shared experiences and encouraging the young people to reflect on and verbalise these emotions. "So if a nice photo is there, of course, and then the reaction to it would be: 'Yes, I was there. That was totally cool. Then that would already achieve a lot." Felix also wants to stimulate a dialogue about this specific action among the young people. With the comment function, he opens up a low-threshold possibility and thus motivates the young people to articulate themselves. En passant, he receives feedback through the comments and can arrange further corresponding offers. At the same time, both the documentation and the follow-up dialogue of the young people have a signal character to the outside: outsiders get an impression of the offers and the target group as well as an impression of how the educational professionals work; liveliness and openness are signalled. Both Clara and Felix use the SONW to arrange and initiate everyday educational offers or special experiences. They see an advantage above all in the fact that they can reach a large target group, namely all the young people associated with the institution, in a short time by means of postings. This becomes clear in Felix's facility, where the current educational offer is posted daily. In this way, he also reaches a target group that otherwise does not visit the facility, but only comes to outside events selectively. "Like now, for example, in the summer, when we go swimming somewhere then it is posted." Advertising the swimming trip by means of postings in SONW enables the above-mentioned young people to gain access to the facility or to the educational staff and to participate in the educational activities. Felix can in turn use this to get in touch with the young people and build trust. In addition, a different environment can provide a good framework to break down barriers between the different groups of visitors and to initiate new group dynamic processes. For example, Clara had tickets for the X Factor and Supertalent auditions and posted: "I got tickets. Who wants to come [.]?" or "I don't have tickets anymore." It thus enables young people to experience something special, not ordinary, and creates opportunities for educational processes. Arranging participation in special experiences and educational offers accordingly implies pedagogical action and goes beyond mass media advertising. The pedagogical action in SONW and SONW as pedagogical action spacesThe previous explications have shown the pedagogical content in dealing with mutual postings. In some examples, interventions were made directly in the SONW, making it clear how this is used as an additional, pedagogical space for action by the OKJA. However, the question now arises as to what extent the two pedagogical professionals perceive the SONW as a pedagogical space for action and describe it as such. When asked about her understanding of the term, Clara defines pedagogical action as "all actions that you carry out educationally in relation to young people". As an example, she mentions addressing conflicts on the basis of pedagogical and developmental psychological expertise, i.e. "knowing what can be meant by this and then addressing it". In doing so, she uses an evocative-provocative style of language, so-called modulations (cf. Cloos et al. 2009), to make the young people aware of their behaviour and its consequences. For Clara, this kind of pedagogical action is unquestionably also found in the SONW. She illustrates this with another example of a male adolescent who has photographed himself in a bodybuilder's pose: "And I say, 'My goodness, now you're being a muscleman!' and do it with a smiley face on the back, so that he actually knows what I mean." Again, she uses modulations to encourage the young person to reflect on their behaviour and to make them aware of the effects of the posted image. In addition, Clara would have the opportunity to use the interaction on Facebook for later follow-up communication within the institution. What is striking about Clara's understanding of pedagogical action is that she focuses on conflictual or problematic situations. For her, pedagogical action thus includes corrective action. In this, her definition differs from that of Giesecke. The latter defines pedagogical action as positively influencing people towards a mature personality by providing opportunities for educational processes (cf. 1997: 22ff.). Felix defines pedagogical action as arranging workshops, animating or teaching tolerance in the group. However, he only refers to face-to-face work within the institution, because Felix doubts that pedagogical action can be transferred to SONW: "And in relation to networks, the question can really be asked, is this a form of pedagogical action when I publish the offers? Because that is really only public relations work, information work. Although he does act pedagogically in SONW, he does not reflect and articulate this accordingly. For him, SONW are less additional pedagogical spaces for action than tools that facilitate administrative tasks. Giesecke also distinguishes the information output of mass media from pedagogical action and states that this always takes place face to face. Pedagogical action can only take place in the interactive situations that may subsequently be created (1997: 47f.). However, as the explications have made clear, this is no longer a fundamental condition for pedagogical action due to the interactivity of SONW today. Felix does use this interactivity in the practice of action, but interactivity does not play a role in reflection and articulation. Based on the two case studies, it becomes clear that the reflection of pedagogical implications in the use of SONW does not necessarily reflect practice. According to Giesecke, the antithesis of action is always reflection (1997: 45). He sees his concept of basic forms of pedagogical action as an instrument to reflect action (1997: 17). These basic forms (1997: 76ff.)1 now serve as a structure to reflectively clarify the pedagogical action of the explications. Arranging (1): By using SONW's multiple channels of communication, the pedagogical professionals arrange the conditions for trusting working relationships or arrange situations that make educational processes possible. Animate: The educational professionals encourage the young people to participate in educational arrangements such as excursions and other educational situations. They also encourage the young people to articulate themselves in SONW. Informing/advising: On the one hand, information and counselling can take place in the SONW, but on the other hand, it can also be related to the content of the SONW and take place offline/face-to-face. Both pedagogical professionals note that from their point of view, a face-to-face conversation cannot be replaced by messages via SONW due to the reduction of channels and that it is therefore important to always work "on two tracks" (Clara). Challenges and needs for reflection arising from the above examples are discussed below. Challenges and outlookSONW are not youth spaces. Companies are present there as well as adults who network there professionally and privately. Accordingly, the question of whether educational professionals should be in SONW is moot (cf. Stix 2014). It is more important to develop a way of dealing with each other that is not detrimental to either the pedagogical professionals or the young people. In order to reach the young people, the educational professionals use the SONW offers that are popular among young people. These are usually commercial and not very transparent or regulated when it comes to handling user data. From a pedagogical point of view, this requires checking and weighing the advantages and disadvantages. Accordingly, it can be important to have a conversation about a sensitive topic face-to-face and to communicate this to the young people, not only because of the channel reduction. A reflective and sensitive handling of data also applies to the documentation of actions, as Felix describes. When posting pictures, he has to consider the young people's right to privacy and check whether and which information might be revealed unintentionally. Furthermore, the ethical question arises to what extent educational professionals may actively obtain and use information from SONW (cf. Kutscher 2015). Another challenge arises from the question of whether young people who do not have access to SONW are excluded or disadvantaged. Reflecting on this is a task of pedagogical professionalism. The use of SONW offers pedagogical opportunities. At the same time, it also gives rise to new dimensions of responsibility for the professional action of educational specialists. The actions in SONW must be reflected on with regard to possible negative consequences for the young people. The development of one's own (media) pedagogical attitude as well as framing by the responsible body and collegial exchange can help here. Being pedagogically professional also means being aware of young people's trends and reacting to them pedagogically. In the case of social media, the masses have been moving towards offers such as WhatsApp and Instagram since 2015 (mpfs 2016: 32f.). It remains exciting to see whether WhatsApp with its other structures will also establish itself as a pedagogical space of action in the medium term and what pedagogical action there will look like in concrete terms - and what conflicts this will entail with professional logics and standards (cf. Deutscher Bundestag 2013, p. 394), which need to be reflected and included in the design of pedagogical action. (1) Except for teaching, understood by Giesecke as explaining relatively complex factual contexts in a longer process of argumentation (1997: 79).
