Ponencia presentada en: XXXV Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XIX Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en León, del 5 al 7 de marzo de 2018. ; Most heavy precipitation events occurring in the world are associated with convective processes. As these phenomena produce severe economic and societal impacts, it is crucial to get to know their behaviour and their evolution in a future climate. For this reason, the international project CORDEX (Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment) proposed the Flagship Pilot Study on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean, focused on the study of convection in Europe. In this initiative, multi-model and multi-physics results and uncertainties of regional climate models (RCMs) are explored by means of ensembles of simulations. In this work, we additionally explore the role of internal variability to explain the differences found in the results by different model configurations. ; This work is funded by the Spanish government through grant BES-2016-078158 and MINECO/FEDER co-funded projects INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R) and MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R).
This work is funded by the Spanish government through grant BES-2016-078158 and MINECO/FEDER co-funded projects INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R) and MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R). UCAN simulations have been carried out on the Altamira Supercomputer at the Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA, CSIC-UC), member of the Spanish Supercomputing Network.
In a recent study, Coppola et al. assessed the ability of an ensemble of convection-permitting models (CPM) to simulate deep convection using three case studies. The ensemble exhibited strong discrepancies between models, which were attributed to various factors. In order to shed some light on the issue, we quantify in this article the uncertainty associated to different physical parameterizations from that of using different initial conditions, often referred to as the internal variability. For this purpose, we establish a framework to quantify both signals and we compare them for upper atmospheric circulation and near-surface variables. The analysis is carried out in the context of the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean, in which the intermediate RCM WRF simulations that serve to drive the CPM are run several times with different parameterizations. For atmospheric circulation (geopotential height), the sensitivity induced by multi?physics and the internal variability show comparable magnitudes and a similar spatial distribution pattern. For 2-m temperature and 10-m wind, the simulations with different parameterizations show larger differences than those launched with different initial conditions. The systematic effect over one year shows distinct patterns for the multi-physics and the internal variability. Therefore, the general lesson of this study is that internal variability should be analysed in order to properly distinguish the impact of other sources of uncertainty, especially for short-term sensitivity simulations. ; This work is partially funded by the Spanish government through grant BES-2016-078158 and MINECO/ FEDER co-funded projects INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R) and MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R). Universidad de Cantabria simulations have been carried out on the Altamira Supercomputer at the Instituto de F´ısica de Cantabria (IFCA-CSIC), member of the Spanish Supercomputing Network. EK and SK acknowledge the support of the Greek Research and Technology Network (GRNET) High Performance Computing (HPC) infrastructure for providing the computational resources of AUTH-simulations (under project ID pr003005) and the AUTH Scientific Computing Center for technical support. IPSL acknowledges the support from the EUCP project, funded by the European Union under H2020 Grant Agreement 776613, and from the IPSL mesocenter ESPRI facility which is supported by CNRS, UPMC, Labex L-IPSL, CNES and Ecole Polytechnique. IPSL simulations were granted access to the HPC resources of TGCC 19 under the allocation A0050106877 made by GENCI. The computational resources for NORCE/BCCR were provided by UNINETT Sigma2 (NN9280K, NS9001K), with funding from the Research Council of Norway's support for the strategic project on climate services. FZJ gratefully acknowledges the computing time granted by the John von Neumann Institute for Computing (NIC) and JARA-HPC provided on the supercomputer JURECA at J¨ulich Supercomputing Centre (JSC). We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project UERRA (https://www.uerra.eu) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the data providers in the ECA&D project (https://eca.knmi.nl).
The research objective of this study is the development of long-term sustainable Marginal Agricultural Land Low-Input Systems for industrial crop cultivation. And the research question of this study is: How bioenergy cropping systems of tomorrow could be made more sustainable under social-ecological terms. It was found that there are five main requirements for the development of social-ecologically more sustainable bioenergy cropping systems. And here, four of them are presented and discussed. ; This research received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 727698 and the University of Hohenheim. N.D.J. received funding from the Bioeconomy Science Center (BioSC), supported in the project AP3 Focus Lab. The scientific activities of the Bioeconomy Science Center were financially supported by the Ministry of Innovation, Science and Research within the framework of the NRW Strategieprojekt BioSC (no. 313/323‐400‐002 13).
Abstract. The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, and the socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. The heatwave first affected Scandinavia in mid-July and shifted towards central Europe in late July, while Iberia was primarily affected in early August. The atmospheric circulation was characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over Europe, in combination with a positive summer North Atlantic Oscillation and a double jet stream configuration before the initiation of the heatwave. In terms of possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, the Eurasian double-jet structure and a tripolar sea surface temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic were already identified in spring. While in the early stages over Scandinavia the air masses at mid and upper levels were often of a remote, maritime origin, at later stages over Iberia the air masses primarily had a local-to-regional origin. The drought affected Germany the most, starting with warmer than average conditions in spring, associated with enhanced latent heat release that initiated a severe depletion of soil moisture. During summer, a continued precipitation deficit exacerbated the problem, leading to hydrological and agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment of the heatwave in Germany showed that such events of prolonged heat have become more likely due to anthropogenic global warming. Regarding future projections, an extreme summer such as that of 2018 is expected to occur every 2 out of 3 years in Europe in a +1.5 ∘C warmer world and virtually every single year in a +2 ∘C warmer world. With such large-scale and impactful extreme events becoming more frequent and intense under anthropogenic climate change, comprehensive and multi-faceted studies like the one presented here quantify the multitude of their effects and provide valuable information as a basis for adaptation and mitigation strategies.
