Suchergebnisse

We present a dynamic network model of corrupt and noncorrupt employees representing two states in the public and private sector. Corrupt employees are more connected to one another and are less willing to change their attitudes regarding corruption than noncorrupt employees. This behavior enables them to prevail and become the majority in the workforce through a first-order phase transition even though they initially represented a minority. In the model, democracy—understood as the principle of majority rule—does not create corruption, but it serves as a mechanism that preserves corruption in the long run. The motivation for our network model is a paradox that exists on the labor market. Although economic theory indicates that higher risk investments should lead to larger rewards, in many developed and developing countries workers in lower-risk public sector jobs are paid more than workers in higher-risk private sector jobs. To determine the long-run sustainability of this economic paradox, we study data from 28 EU countries and find that the public sector wage premium increases with the level of corruption. ; This paper was supported by the University of Rijeka, the Zagreb School of Economics and Management, and the Adriatic Economic Association. (University of Rijeka; Zagreb School of Economics and Management; Adriatic Economic Association) ; Published version

An important aspect of macroeconomic policy is to monitor the time path of the current account, which can be considered as a measure of national net indebtedness. If current account defi cit is stationary, the external debt is sustainable. In this paper we test the long-run relationship between imports and exports in sixteen transition European countries, using quarterly data from different years in the 1990s to the end of 2006. In order to test the possible cointegration between exports and import in the sample countries, we apply the Johansen approach. We find existence of cointegration in 10 out of 16 analyzed countries. However, restrictions on long run coefficient suggest that current account deficit is sustainable only in 5 countries. ; Nadgledanje vremenske putanje tekućeg računa bilance plaćanja, kojeg možemo smatrati mjerom neto zaduženosti privrede, važan je aspekt makroekonomske politike. Naime, ako je tekući račun stacionaran, vanjski dug je održiv. U ovom radu testiramo dugoročni odnos uvoza i izvoza roba i usluga za šesnaest europskih tranzicijskih zemalja koristeći tromjesečne podatke od devedesetih godina prošlog stoljeća do kraja 2006. Koristi se Johansenova kointegracija da bi se detektiralo postojanje kointegracije između uvoza i izvoza u zemljama iz uzorka. Kod deset zemalja potvrđeno je postojanje kointegracijskog odnosa između uvoza i izvoza. Međutim, uvođenjem restrikcija na dugoročne parametre, zaključuje se da je defi cit tekućeg računa bilance plaćanja održiv u svega pet zemalja.

Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its per capita GDP (gdp) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay constant λ = 0.12. We use the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) and find that the distribution of change in CPI (GCI) rank follows exponential functions with approximately the same exponent as λ, suggesting that the dynamics of gdp, CPI and GCI may share the same origin. Using the GCI, we develop a new measure, which we call relative competitiveness, to evaluate an economy's competitiveness relative to its gdp. For all European and EU countries during the 2008–2011 economic downturn we find that the drop in gdp in more competitve countries relative to gdp was substantially smaller than in relatively less competitive countries, which is valuable information for policymakers. ; We thank the ONR and the Keck Foundation for financial support. (ONR; Keck Foundation) ; Published version

We study the annual growth rates of six macroeconomic variables: public debt, public health expenditures, exports of goods, government consumption expenditures, total exports of goods and services, and total imports of goods and services. For each variable, we find (i) that the distribution of the growth rate residuals approximately follows a double exponential (Laplace) distribution and (ii) that the standard deviation of growth rate residuals scales according to the size of the variable as a power law, with a scaling exponent similar to the scaling exponent found for GDP [Economics Letters 60, 335 (1998)]. We hypothesise that the volatility scaling we find for these GDP constituents causes the volatility scaling found in GDP data.