Suchergebnisse

The European countries that during the past two decades based their exchange rate regimes on currency board arrangement (CBA) are usually analysed from the perspective of corner solution choice's stabilisation effects. There is an open discussion on the positive and negative background of a strict exchange rate regime choice, although it should be seen as part of the transition process towards the monetary union membership. The focus of the paper is on the Baltic countries that after two decades of a rigid exchange rate arrangement and strongly influenced by global crisis are finishing their path towards the euro zone. Besides the stabilising capacity, the CBA is highly vulnerable regime, with limited developing potential. The rigidity of the exchange rate (and monetary) system, despite the ensured credibility, do not leave enough (or any) space for the adjustment and/or active crisis management. Still, the Baltics are in a process of recovery, with fiscal consolidation measures combined with (painful and politically unpopular) measures of internal devaluation. Today, two of them (Estonia and Latvia) are members of euro zone, fulfilling their ultimate transition targets, but de facto exchanging one fixed regime with another. The paper analyses the challenges for the CBA in unstable environment since the fixed regimes rely on imported stability and are sensitive to external shocks. With limited monetary instruments, these countries were oriented to the fiscal policies and used a combination of internal devaluation and tax policy measures. Despite their rather quick recovery, our second goal is to analyse the long term influence that the measures had on the national economy.

U ovom radu analiziran je prijenos šokova s tržišta državnih obveznica na ključne makroekonomske varijable, uključujući realni BDP, tečaj, inflaciju i dug države. Pritom su u obzir uzeti značajni šokovi, poput onih tijekom svjetske gospodarske krize iz 2008. godine i dužničke krize koja je zahvatila određene članice EU-a, što je imalo dubok utjecaj na tržište državnih obveznica i ekonomsku stabilnost tih zemalja. Analiza obuhvaća razdoblje od 2005. do 2016. godine, koristeći kvartalne podatke za dvadeset i sedam zemalja članica Europske unije. Korištenjem panel VAR (Vector Autoregressive) modela, istražena je međusobna povezanost varijabli u okviru panel podataka, što omogućava detaljnu analizu dinamičkih odnosa između tržišta državnih obveznica i makroekonomskih pokazatelja. Rezultati pokazuju da promjene u spreadovima obveznica, koje odražavaju promjene u riziku utječu na ekonomsku aktivnost. Zaključak ovog istraživanja naglašava važnost razumijevanja tih dinamičkih veza za oblikovanje učinkovitih politika koje mogu smanjiti negativne posljedice financijskih šokova na realnu ekonomiju, osobito u kriznim vremenima kada su tržišta državnih obveznica podložna velikim fluktuacijama.

Social entrepreneurs create value. Global problems such as poverty have been heightened by the economic crisis lately and continue to affect the lives of many people all over the world and bring a great deal of interest to the social economy. Social entrepreneurship is an important determinant of the social economy and describes a set of exceptional behaviors. This paper analyzes the notion, perception, and degree of social-economic development with an emphasis on social entrepreneurship in the selected countries of the European Union and Croatia. The analysis encompasses the concept and development of selected older members of the European Union and relies on post-socialist countries at the same time as the newest members of the European Union. By analyzing the facts it is trying to prove that the social economy and social entrepreneurship are more developed and more fragmented in the older and more developed countries of the European Union. Further evidence of this fact is the level of employment in the social economy in the European Union, where the post-socialist countries lag behind the more developed countries of the European Union. ; Društveni poduzetnici stvaraju vrijednost. Globalni problemi poput siromaštva u posljednje su vrijeme intenzivirani uslijed gospodarske krize te i dalje imaju velik utjecaj na život mnogih ljudi diljem svijeta i predstavljaju velik interes društvenoj ekonomiji. Društveno poduzetništvo je važna odrednica društvene ekonomije i opisuje skup iznimnih ponašanja. Ovaj rad analizira pojam, percepciju i stupanj društveno-gospodarskog razvoja s naglaskom na društveno poduzetništvo u odabranim zemljama Europske unije i u Hrvatskoj. Analiza obuhvaća koncept i razvoj odabranih starijih članica Europske unije i oslanja se na postsocijalističke zemlje, kao najmlađe članice Europske unije. Analiziranjem činjenica članak pokušava dokazati da su društvena ekonomija i društveno poduzetništvo razvijeniji i rascjepkaniji u starijim i razvijenijim zemljama članicama Europske unije. Dodatni dokaz ...

We use data for 24 European countries, spanning from 1994 to 2015, in order to examine how changes in macroeconomic conditions influence country risk premium volatility proxied by sovereign spreads variance. In the first part of the empirical analysis, we estimate the univariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model in order to obtain the conditional variance of sovereign bond spreads. We show that an increase in this variance coincides with economic and financial crisis occurring either in the country or globally. In the second part of the empirical analysis, we estimate the panel vector autoregression (panel VAR) model in order to model the interplay between macroeconomic fundamentals (inflation, output gap, public debt and interest rates) and the country's risk premium volatility. We show that overheating of the economy, along with an unexpected increase in public debt, inflation and interest rates, increase the country's risk premium volatility. We also show that a sudden increase in the country´s risk premium volatility depresses the economy, exerts deflationary pressures on consumer prices, and is followed by a strong and permanent increase in public debt.

We use data for 24 European countries, spanning from 1994 to 2015, in order to examine how changes in macroeconomic conditions influence country risk premium volatility proxied by sovereign spreads variance. In the first part of the empirical analysis, we estimate the univariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model in order to obtain the conditional variance of sovereign bond spreads. We show that an increase in this variance coincides with economic and financial crisis occurring either in the country or globally. In the second part of the empirical analysis, we estimate the panel vector autoregression (panel VAR) model in order to model the interplay between macroeconomic fundamentals (inflation, output gap, public debt and interest rates) and the country's risk premium volatility. We show that overheating of the economy, along with an unexpected increase in public debt, inflation and interest rates, increase the country's risk premium volatility. We also show that a sudden increase in the country´s risk premium volatility depresses the economy, exerts deflationary pressures on consumer prices, and is followed by a strong and permanent increase in public debt.