Suchergebnisse

Over the past three decades, large and persistent discrepancies between the annual change in public debt and the budget deficit, so-called stock-flow adjustments, were a prominent feature of debt dynamics in many economies. The aim of this paper is to investigate the underlying determinants of such discrepancies and their relationship with fiscal transparency using data for 163 countries. Results show that such discrepancies can only be partly explained by balance sheet effects and the realization of contingent liabilities and that significant differences exist in average stock-flow adjustmen

This project explores the stock-flow consistent (SFC) approach to modeling with the goal of examining the effectiveness of different fiscal policy tools, specifically tax policies and government expenditure. By exploring the historical and theoretical elements of stock-flow consistent models, we aim to gather insight on past successful models proven to predict crises. This paper begins with a history and continues into a simple SFC model thought experiment, which emphasizes the flexibility of the models as well as a precursor to the shock approach we employ at the end of the paper. We create Model ECONOMY with several strong assumptions, such as modeling a closed economy with an absence of the financial sector. By thoroughly comparing the results from the equations that comprise Model ECONOMY to that of historical data, we aim to provide legitimacy to the model. Once established, we will use the results from the baseline of Model ECONOMY and introduce shocks to the system. These shocks are forms of fiscal policy, from a decrease in taxes to an increase in government expenditures. We compare the results of the shocks to that of historical data from the same time period (2008-2015) in order to see what the effect would have been for each policy proposal. The goal of the paper is to use the SFC model to find an effective fiscal policy proposal.

Macroeconomists and political officers need rigorous, albeit realistic, quantitative models to forecast the future paths and dynamics of some variables of interest while being able to evaluate the effects of alternative scenarios. At the heart of all these models lies a standard macroeconomic module that, depending on the degree of sophistication and the research questions to be answered, represents how the economy works. However, the complete absence of a realistic monetary framework, along with the abstraction of banks and more generally of real-financial interactions-not only in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models but also in central banks' structural econometric models-made it impossible to detect the rising financial fragility that led to the Great Recession. In this paper, we show how to address the missing links between the real and financial sectors within a post-Keynesian framework, presenting a quarterly stock-flow consistent (SFC) structural model of the Italian economy. We set up the accounting structure of the sectoral transactions, describing our "transaction matrix" and "balance sheet matrix," starting from the appropriate sectoral data sources. We then "close" all sectoral financial accounts, describe portfolio choices, and define the buffer stocks for each class of assets and sector in the model. We describe our estimation strategy, present the main stochastic equations, and, finally, discuss the main channels of transmissions in our model.

We develop an innovative Stock-Flow Consistent macroeconometric regional model with five sectors, exploiting economic and financial statistics for Campania, covering the period 1995–2018, and propose a methodology to close the financial account of the private sector when financial data are lacking. The model is then used to perform medium term Economic Policy Scenario Analysis. We find that a debt-funded fiscal expansion has permanent positive effects on growth, with an impact multiplier above one and a medium-run multiplier of 0.71. In the case of a balanced-budget rule the same increase in government spending has still positive effects on growth – with a medium-run multiplier of 0.6 – but adverse ones on the private corporate sector.

This paper deploys a simple stock-flow consistent (SFC) model in order to examine various contentions regarding fiscal and monetary policy. It follows from the model that if the fiscal stance is not set in the appropriate fashionthat is, at a well-defined level and growth ratethen full employment and low inflation will not be achieved in a sustainable way. We also show that fiscal policy on its own could achieve both full employment and a target rate of inflation. Finally, we arrive at two unconventional conclusions: first, that an economy (described within an SFC framework) with a real rate of interest net of taxes that exceeds the real growth rate will not generate explosive interest flows, even when the government is not targeting primary surpluses; and, second, that it cannot be assumed that a debtor country requires a trade surplus if interest payments on debt are not to explode.

We develop a stock-and-flow-consistent model for South Africa with four financial instruments and detailed balance sheets for the household, government, financial, non-financial, and foreign sectors and the Reserve Bank. Though micro-founded, the model departs significantly from current dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models as it assumes bounded rationality and no Ricardian equivalence. The stock and flow consistency makes it better suited to studying balance sheet dynamics and the real sector/financial sector interaction. In the model, cyclical flow changes affect the long-term real and financial behaviour of institutions through their impact on the respective institutional assets and liabilities stocks.

JEL Classification: E12, E16, E65 ; According to Olivier Blanchard, one of the silver linings of the 2007-2008 financial crisis has been to jolt macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy and to demonstrate some of the shortcomings of DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) models. In this thesis we tried to present an alternative or complementary approach to the referred models, an approach based on the stock-flow consistent models of Godley and Lavoie and on the complexity theory approach championed by Steve Keen. Its main characteristics are: the possibility of integration of the real economy with a well-developed financial sector; a holistic view of the economy, in which sectoral balances take center stage; the acknowledgement of the principle of fundamental uncertainty, rejecting the hypothesis of rational expectations; the recognition of the monetary nature of the economy, the role of debt and the endogeneity of money; and the rejection of the methodological equilibration of neoclassical theory with the economy being seen, instead, as basically in constant disequilibrium. Based on this principles we built a model of the Portuguese economy, in order to analyze the austerity policies applied in the last years in our country. In a first phase, our work consisted in building a benchmark model that replicated the 2008-2013 period. In a second stage, we changed some of the variables, recreating alternative scenarios and options, and analyzed the results obtained comparing them with the benchmark case. More than precise answers, the goal of this work is to contribute to an informed intuition of the functioning of the Portuguese economy. ; Segundo Olivier Blanchard, a crise financeira de 2007-2008 veio abanar a macroeconomia e pôr a nu as insuficiências dos modelos de eleição da teoria Neoclássica, os modelos DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium). Nesta tese procurámos apresentar uma abordagem alternativa ou complementar aos referidos modelos DSGE, baseada nos princípios dos modelos stock-flow consistent de Godley e Lavoie e inspirada na teoria de sistemas complexos defendida por Steve Keen. As suas principais características são: a possibilidade de integração de um sector financeiro bem desenvolvido com a economia real; uma visão holística da economia baseando-se numa análise sectorial da mesma; o principio da incerteza fundamental, rejeitando assim a hipótese de expectativas racionais; o reconhecimento da natureza monetária da economia, da dívida e da endogeneidade do dinheiro; e a visão de que a economia se encontra em constante desequilíbrio. Assente nestes princípios, construímos um modelo da Economia Portuguesa que nos permitiu analisar as políticas de austeridade que foram aplicadas em Portugal nos últimos anos. Para isso, numa primeira fase, foi construído e calibrado um modelo de referência que replica o período de 2008 a 2013. Numa segunda fase foram alteradas algumas variáveis desse mesmo modelo, recriando cenários e opções politicas alternativas que foram depois analisadas e comparadas com o modelo de referência. Mais do que respostas precisas, o objectivo deste exercício é de contribuir para uma 'intuição informada' do funcionamento da economia Portuguesa