An Exploration of Stock-Flow Consistent Models: An Analysis of Fiscal Policy Effectiveness

Abstract

This project explores the stock-flow consistent (SFC) approach to modeling with the goal of examining the effectiveness of different fiscal policy tools, specifically tax policies and government expenditure. By exploring the historical and theoretical elements of stock-flow consistent models, we aim to gather insight on past successful models proven to predict crises. This paper begins with a history and continues into a simple SFC model thought experiment, which emphasizes the flexibility of the models as well as a precursor to the shock approach we employ at the end of the paper. We create Model ECONOMY with several strong assumptions, such as modeling a closed economy with an absence of the financial sector. By thoroughly comparing the results from the equations that comprise Model ECONOMY to that of historical data, we aim to provide legitimacy to the model. Once established, we will use the results from the baseline of Model ECONOMY and introduce shocks to the system. These shocks are forms of fiscal policy, from a decrease in taxes to an increase in government expenditures. We compare the results of the shocks to that of historical data from the same time period (2008-2015) in order to see what the effect would have been for each policy proposal. The goal of the paper is to use the SFC model to find an effective fiscal policy proposal.