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Abstract. This paper uses a coupled hydrodynamic agent-based model (HABM) to investigate the effect of direct or indirect warnings in flood incident response. This model uses the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model and the NetLogo agent-based framework and is applied to the 2005 flood event in Carlisle, UK. The hydrodynamic model provides a realistic simulation of detailed flood dynamics through the event, whilst the agent-based model component enables simulation and analysis of the complex, in-event social response. NetLogo enables alternative probabilistic daily routine and agent choice scenarios for the individuals of Carlisle to be simulated in a coupled fashion with the flood inundation. Specifically, experiments are conducted using a novel "enhanced social modelling component" based on the Bass diffusion model. From the analysis of these simulations, management stress points (predictable or otherwise) can be presented to those responsible for hazard management and post-event recovery. The results within this paper suggest that these stress points can be present, or amplified, due to a lack of preparedness or a lack of phased evacuation measures. Furthermore, the methods outlined here have the potential for application elsewhere to reduce the complexity and improve the effectiveness of flood incident management. The paper demonstrates the influence that emergent properties have on systematic vulnerability and risk from natural hazards in coupled socio-environmental systems.

In Rußland ist die demographische Situation seit vielen Jahren schwierig. Sie wird heute gekennzeichnet durch anhaltenden Geburtenrückgang, der sich in den neunziger Jahren beschleunigt; steigende Indikatoren der Mortalität, besonders bei Männern im arbeitsfähigen Alter und bei den nichtnatürlichen Todesursachen; dauerhaft hohe Kindersterblichkeit, die weiter ansteigt; zunehmende Ehescheidungen bei rückläufigen Eheschließungen; steigende Anzahl der Alleinerziehenden, die gegenwärtig 4 Millionen Kinder versorgen; seit 1992 ist ein tatsächlicher Bevölkerungsrückgang zu beobachten, es sterben mehr Menschen als Kinder geboren werden.

SummaryThe determinants of modern contraceptive use in traditional populations are analysed in married women aged 30–44 living in the province of Marrakech (Morocco). Women who have never used contraception have smaller family sizes than those who do: the number of live children (or live births) is the variable with maximum predictive power on contraceptive use, while child mortality is the main inhibiting factor. The probability of contraceptive use increases with female age at marriage and decreases with the woman's age, indicating a generational change in reproductive behaviour. The socioeconomic variables education, employment and residence, have no significant independent predictive character on contraceptive use, although the interaction between education and residence does. The paper evaluates the hypothesis that traditional populations in the initial phase of their demographic transition resort to modern contraception in order to stop childbearing, when they have reached a desired number of children, rather than to space births or reduce their fertility.

Why do young Africans participate less in elections than their older counterparts? Given Africa's growing youth bulge, this constituency represents a numerically important voting bloc, and their lower participation in elections could undermine the legitimacy of the region's democratic trajectory. We address this question through a multi-level model that relies on individual-level data from the Afrobarometer surveys and country-level data for 19 of the region's more democratic countries. We classify Africa's youth as belonging to two categories, those aged 18-24 and those aged 25-35. We find that key determinants of the youth's voting behaviour include their access to political knowledge and information as well as their perceptions of the electoral context and party system. In the latter regard, the efficacy and fairness of elections and the degree of partisanship increase the youth's decision to vote, while the length of party incumbency is a deterrent to turnout. These findings hold important implications by highlighting that Africa's youth not only need to be exposed to greater fora for learning about the political process and party options but also that political parties in the region need to become more relevant to this constituency. Adapted from the source document.

The article analyses the role of empathy in motivating prosocial behaviour. The influence of the level of empathy development on the features of prosocial behaviour in personal development is analysed. A theoretical analysis of the phenomenon of empathy and its impact on prosocial behaviour is carried out from the point of view of an interdisciplinary approach. Studies of the prosocial behaviour phenomenon in the framework of modern psychological doctrines are considered. The article presents the results of a study aimed at studying the influence of the level of empathy on the formation of prosocial (helping) behaviour. The study was conducted using a personal interview method. The survey was conducted on a zoned quota sample, represented in accordance with sex, age, and educational structure of the population of Yaroslavl. (n=500 people). The main conclusions of the study include the conclusion about a low level of behavioural empathy, characterised by a willingness to sympathise and help, guided by emotional participation. We can talk about the correlation of the empathic potential of the individual and its altruistic orientation. Empathic potential makes it possible to predict the behavioural reactions of a person in a real situation and is a determinant of the formation of prosocial behaviour. An individual's belonging to a society is determined by its emotional connections and influences the formation of prosocial behaviour.