Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions
Intro -- Contents -- Preface -- Introduction -- I. Policy Analysis -- 1. Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude -- 2. Predicting Policy Outcomes -- 3. Predicting Behavior -- II. Policy Decisions -- 4. Planning with Partial Knowledge -- 5. Diversified Treatment Choice -- 6. Policy Analysis and Decisions -- Appendix A: Derivations for Criteria to Treat X-Pox -- Appendix B: The Minimax- Regret Allocation to a Status Quo Treatment and an Innovation -- Appendix C: Treatment Choice with Partial Knowledge of Response to Both Treatments -- References -- Index.