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Intro -- Contents -- Preface -- Introduction -- I. Policy Analysis -- 1. Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude -- 2. Predicting Policy Outcomes -- 3. Predicting Behavior -- II. Policy Decisions -- 4. Planning with Partial Knowledge -- 5. Diversified Treatment Choice -- 6. Policy Analysis and Decisions -- Appendix A: Derivations for Criteria to Treat X-Pox -- Appendix B: The Minimax- Regret Allocation to a Status Quo Treatment and an Innovation -- Appendix C: Treatment Choice with Partial Knowledge of Response to Both Treatments -- References -- Index.

Main description: Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Manski critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve both how policy research is conducted and how it is used by policy makers.

"Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Manski critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve both how policy research is conducted and how it is used by policy makers"--Publisher's description.