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Using the latest spatial econometric techniques and data pertaining to 144 countries over the period 1993-2007, this article tests and compares four frequently used spatial econometric models and eight matrices describing the mutual relationships among the countries, all within a common framework, which helps clarify the impact of neighboring countries on military expenditures. Furthermore, it utilizes two different data sources. Due to this setup, it provides one of the most thorough spatial analyses of military expenditures so far. Furthermore, it confirms but also challenges the results of several previous studies. Military spending measured as a ratio of GDP in one country indeed depends primarily on the spending of other countries, but in a limited number of cases, it also depends on control variables that can be observed in other countries, among which are the level of GDP, the occurrence of international wars, and the political regime. The most likely specification of the matrix describing the relationships among countries is the first-order binary contiguity matrix based on land or maritime borders, extended to include two-sided relationships among the five countries that are permanent members of the UN Security Council and one-sided relationships to all other countries. Finally, cross-sectional approaches are rejected in favor of dynamic spatial panel data approaches due to their controls for habit persistence, country, and time-period fixed effects.

The global recession of 2008–09 has revived interest in the international repercussions of domestic policy choices. This paper focuses on the case of fiscal stimulus, investigating cross-border spillovers from an increase in exhaustive government spending on the basis of a two-country business-cycle model. Our model allows spillovers to be affected by a range of features, including trade elasticities, the size and openness of economies, and financial imperfections. Beyond these well-known determinants, however, we highlight the central importance of policy frameworks, notably the medium-term debt consolidation regime. We consider the plausible case in which a temporary debt-financed increase in government spending gives rise to higher future taxes along with some reduction in spending over time. The anticipated spending reversal not only strengthens the domestic stimulus effect but also enhances positive cross-border spillovers through its impact on global long-term interest rates. Thus, our findings lend support to the notion that coordinated short-term stimulus policies are most effective when coupled with credible medium-term consolidation plans featuring at least some spending restraint.

A neoclassical growth model is used to empirically test for the influences of a civil war on steady-state income per capita both at home & in neighboring countries. This model provides the basis for measuring long-run & short-run effects of civil wars on income per capita growth in the host country & its neighbors. Evidence of significant collateral damage on economic growth in neighboring nations is uncovered. In addition, this damage is attributed to country-specific influences rather than to migration, human capital, or investment factors. As the intensity of the measure used to proxy the conflict increases, there are enhanced neighbor spillovers. Moreover, collateral damage from civil wars to growth is more pronounced in the short run. 4 Tables, 1 Appendix, 29 References. [Copyright 2002 Sage Publications, Inc.]

We examine the impact of transnational terrorism diffusion on security and international trade. To counter the diffusion of transnational terrorism, targeted governments implement security measures against countries where terror could potentially diffuse. Since security measures raise trade costs, we argue that countries, close enough to those from where terror originates, should experience negative spillovers on their trade. We find evidence for this hypothesis in our data. We show that the closer a country is to a source of terrorism, the higher the negative spillovers on its trade.

I study the spill-over effects of legislated discretionary tax changes in the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom to 11 Eurozone countries for the period 1980Q1-2018Q4 employing Local Projections (Jordà, 2005). In general, I find spillovers from US tax legislation to have the smallest effects on Eurozone countries' real GDP and UK tax changes to exert the largest effect. There is substantial heterogeneity in both the sign and size of spillovers after US and German aggregated tax cuts, whereas UK tax cuts generally have beneficial effects. When I focus the analysis on the statedependent case, I do not find clear evidence of larger spillovers when the recipient country is in a recession. The sign and size of the spillovers instead depend on the origin and sign of the tax change, as well as the recipient country, rather than on the overall state of the business cycle. Moreover, German tax cuts can be contractionary when recipient countries are in a recession, as the short-term interest rate rises. US tax cuts, on the other hand, stimulate the exports of most countries regardless of the state of the business cycle.

1. Foreign Assets and Liabilities (excluding direct investment), end-20102. Overseas Exposures of Japanese Banks and Insurers; 3. Network Analysis Based on Interbank Exposures; 4. Spillovers to Japanese Banking System: Credit Shock; 5. Spillovers to Japanese Banking System: Credit and Funding Shocks; 6. EDF Correlations Between Major Japanese Financial Institutions and G-SIFIs; Annexes; I. Losses From Overseas Exposures (Loans and Securities); II. Network Analysis; III. Expected Default Frequency Correlations with G-SIFIs; IV. Spillover to Yen Money Markets; V. FX Funding Risks.

"This paper studies the effects of monetary policy rules in a monetary union. The focus of the analysis is on the interaction between the fiscal policy of member countries (regions) and the central monetary authority. When capital markets are integrated, the fiscal policy of one country will influence equilibrium wages and interest rates. Thus there are fiscal spillovers within a federation. The magnitude and direction of these spillovers, in particular the presence of a crowding out effect, can be influenced by the choice of monetary policy rules. We find that there does not exist a monetary policy rule which completely insulates agents in one region from fiscal policy in another. Some familiar policy rules, such as pegging an interest rate, can provide partial insulation"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

AbstractThe aim of this paper is to study the consequences of a preference shock resulting in an increase in household savings in one country of a monetary union such as the Euro area. We study the macroeconomic effects of such a shock by developing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which describes a two‐country monetary union open to the rest of the world. A key feature of the model deals with one specific dimension of financial integration, namely cross‐border bank holdings of government bonds. We show that a negative preference shock in one country can have salient spillover effects on the rest of the union. Spillovers come not only from the financial markets opening‐up, but also from the intensity of intra‐union trade, and the response of macroeconomic (monetary and fiscal) policies.

We investigate the implications of an integrated vis-a-vis a national perspective regarding investment in natural gas infrastructure. In particular, we analyze cross-border spillovers related to the investment expenditure of five Western European countries. We develop a practical approach to estimate such cross-border investment expenditure spillovers using a multi-regional input-output model. We find that international spillovers are generally larger for employment compensation compared to capital compensation and that the spillovers are unevenly distributed among the countries and the types of labor. Both high-skilled and medium-skilled labor is impacted most in the country where the investments take place, whereas low-skilled labor is mostly generated outside the EU. We argue that an integrated European gas infrastructure investment policy is to be recommended.