Impacts of neighboring countries on military expenditures:A dynamic spatial panel approach

In: Yesilyurt , M E & Elhorst , J P 2017 , ' Impacts of neighboring countries on military expenditures : A dynamic spatial panel approach ' , Journal of Peace Research , vol. 54 , no. 6 , pp. 777-790 . https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343317707569 ; ISSN:0022-3433

Abstract

Using the latest spatial econometric techniques and data pertaining to 144 countries over the period 1993-2007, this article tests and compares four frequently used spatial econometric models and eight matrices describing the mutual relationships among the countries, all within a common framework, which helps clarify the impact of neighboring countries on military expenditures. Furthermore, it utilizes two different data sources. Due to this setup, it provides one of the most thorough spatial analyses of military expenditures so far. Furthermore, it confirms but also challenges the results of several previous studies. Military spending measured as a ratio of GDP in one country indeed depends primarily on the spending of other countries, but in a limited number of cases, it also depends on control variables that can be observed in other countries, among which are the level of GDP, the occurrence of international wars, and the political regime. The most likely specification of the matrix describing the relationships among countries is the first-order binary contiguity matrix based on land or maritime borders, extended to include two-sided relationships among the five countries that are permanent members of the UN Security Council and one-sided relationships to all other countries. Finally, cross-sectional approaches are rejected in favor of dynamic spatial panel data approaches due to their controls for habit persistence, country, and time-period fixed effects.