Suchergebnisse

 The polls suggest a very close election, but there is often some systematic polling error--in 2016 and 2020 Republican support was underestimated.  One potentially relevant factor is that there was unusually high turnout in 2020--the rate rose from 60.1% in 2016 to 66% in 2020.  Infrequent voters tend to be less educated, which today means that they tend to vote Republican.  That may have contributed to the underestimation of Republican vote in 2020.  It seems likely that turnout will be lower this time, which reduces the chance that the polls will underestimate the Republican vote and to the extent that they have tried to correct by giving more weight to less educated respondents, makes them more likely to overestimate the Republican vote.  So if I had to guess, I'd say the error is likely to be in the other direction this time--that Harris will run ahead of the polls.    The figure shows turnout in 2020 and 2016 by state (from this source):Turnout increased in every state--the reference line shows a uniform increase.  There are several states that had a relatively large increase, but only one of them is a swing state--Arizona.  A couple of bonuses: first, an update on questions about confidence in "the wisdom of the American people" in making political decisions or election choices:Second, an outfit called EON Journals falsely lists me as the editor of one of their journals.  I asked them by e-mail to remove my name, and got no response.  I followed by sending a letter to the address they listed.  I got it back today, with a notice saying "Return to sender/Attemped--Not known/Unable to forward."  So their mailing address is fake too.  [Some data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]

Many local governments wanting to finance construction of water pollution control facilities through the sale of municipal bonds are required to obtain authorization from the electorate in the form of a bond referendum. Since defeat of such a bond issue can result in significant delay in implementation of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act, it is important that EPA understand the factors which affect the outcome of these elections. The study contains conclusions and recommendations about the process by which the project is planned, the role of the bond market, and the referendum as an approval mechanism for public expenditures ; Publisher location came from U.S. EPA About EPA, Mailing addresses and phone numbers webpage ; EPA report number EPA 16110-EXW-0671, per NSCEP's publication title list ; "This report was submitted in fulfillment of Contract Number 14-12-902 under the sponsorship of the Water Quality Office, Environmental Protection Agency."--Page iii ; "June 1971"--Title page ; "Project # 16110 EXW Contract # 14-12-902"--Title page ; "16110 EXW 06/71"--Cover ; Includes bibliographical references ; Many local governments wanting to finance construction of water pollution control facilities through the sale of municipal bonds are required to obtain authorization from the electorate in the form of a bond referendum. Since defeat of such a bond issue can result in significant delay in implementation of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act, it is important that EPA understand the factors which affect the outcome of these elections. The study contains conclusions and recommendations about the process by which the project is planned, the role of the bond market, and the referendum as an approval mechanism for public expenditures ; Sponsored by the Water Quality Office, Environmental Protection Agency ; Mode of access: Internet.

This is an outstanding mailing-list system capable of handling up to thirty-two thousand names and addresses under optimal hardware and storage conditions. The system also incorporates several "mini" database features such as access and category codes. The system can also create files capable of being word processed with such packages as WordStar and WordPlus. The primary applications for social scientists are in managing mail surveys, for academic departmental mailings, or for professional organizations. Mass Mailer lives up to its billing as a system that can be used by the average novice.

Mail surveys remain a popular method of eliciting attitudinal information, but declining response rates motivate inquiry into new, lower cost methods of contacting potential respondents. This work presents methodological findings from a medium-sized (~12,000 addresses) mail survey testing a United States Postal Service direct mail product called Every Door Direct Mail as a low-cost approach to anonymous mail survey distribution. The results suggest that under certain conditions, Every Door Direct Mail can be a useful approach for mail survey distribution, with response rates similar to those observed with analogous first-class mailing approaches but lower cost per response. As a tool for postal carrier-route saturation mailing that does not use names or addresses, Every Door Direct Mail is potentially useful for researchers who work in small, specific geographies or value or require anonymity. The results from this work suggest good performance on demographics and socially undesirable answers for Every Door Direct Mail relative to addressed mailings. The major disadvantages include an inability to conduct household-level probability sampling, an inability to customize nonresponse follow-up, and minimum mailing sizes associated with the postal carrier route saturation requirement. Every Door Direct Mail is unlikely to become a major tool for survey researchers, but it could be useful in niche applications. This study introduces Every Door Direct Mail to the survey methodology literature and presents empirical data intended to help researchers considering using Every Door Direct Mail.

Several recent field experimental studies show that social pressure raises the likelihood of turning out to vote in elections. Ratcheting up social pressure to show subjects their own as well as their neighbors' prior voting history significantly increases the effectiveness of direct mail messages. A key component in stimulating this effect seems to be the presence of individual vote history. When voters are presented with less specific turnout information, such as vote history for the community at-large, the effects on turnout often dissipate. Sensitizing voters to such descriptive norms appears to do little to stimulate participation. To address this contrast, this study presents results from a voter mobilization field experiment conducted in Hawthorne, CA prior to the November 2011 municipal elections. The experiment is a fully crossed 2 * 3 factorial study in which subjects were randomly assigned to one of six conditions, in which they receive no mailing, a mailing with individual vote history only, a mailing with individual vote history and a message emphasizing high (or low) community-level turnout from a previous election, and a mailing emphasizing high (or low) community-level turnout only. County voter files were used to randomly assign voters to treatment and control and to report the effects of each mailing on voter turnout. We find that only messages that included information about subjects' own voting histories effectively mobilized them to vote. Adapted from the source document.

We address the role of "psychological frictions" in the incomplete take-up of EITC benefits with an IRS field experiment. We specifically assess the influence of program confusion, informational complexity, and stigma by evaluating response to experimental mailings distributed to 35,050 tax filers who failed to claim $26 million despite an initial notice. While the mere receipt of the mailing, simplification, and the heightened salience of benefits led to substantial additional claiming, attempts to reduce perceived costs of stigma, application, and audits did not. The study, and accompanying surveys, suggests that low program awareness/understanding and informational complexity contribute to the puzzle of low take-up. (JEL C93, D03, H24, M38)

During the War of the Spanish Succession, Portugal joined the Grand Alliance in 1703. It made it involved, from that year on, in the conflict that included most of the major European Powers in a dispute for the Spanish throne, which, ultimately, represented a contest for dominance in Europe. Under these circumstances, several diplomats were in charge of representing Portugal at the main European courts, protecting its interests and communicating regularly with the court of Lisbon.This paper addresses an understudied set of the correspondence written in this period by Francisco de Sousa Pacheco, the Portuguese envoy to The Hague, to João de Almeida Portugal, Portuguese ambassador to the court of Archduke Charles of Habsburg, one of the pretenders to the Spanish throne, in Barcelona. The main objective of this article is to study the information network established in Europe, mainly in the Grand Alliance side, and the different routes letters followed from The Hague to Barcelona, either using the existing postal system or known intermediaries. Letters were not the only means diplomats had to convey information to their addressees. They also sent other sources of information, like periodicals, accounts of events and pieces of information gathered from different sources, including propaganda in its various forms. It also analyses the developments of the war, the structure and evolution of these letters and the struggle of these diplomats with the other states to make sure their commitments to send military and financial support to the troops were fulfilled. He also wrote about the espionage within the various courts, and the interception diplomatic letters suffered from the opposite side.Ultimately, we'll see the efforts of these ambassadors as a means for Portugal to gain recognition within Europe, although it ended up with an increasing dependency on foreign states support.

During the War of the Spanish Succession, Portugal joined the Grand Alliance in 1703. It made it involved, from that year on, in the conflict that included most of the major European Powers in a dispute for the Spanish throne, which, ultimately, represented a contest for dominance in Europe. Under these circumstances, several diplomats were in charge of representing Portugal at the main European courts, protecting its interests and communicating regularly with the court of Lisbon.This paper addresses an understudied set of the correspondence written in this period by Francisco de Sousa Pacheco, the Portuguese envoy to The Hague, to João de Almeida Portugal, Portuguese ambassador to the court of Archduke Charles of Habsburg, one of the pretenders to the Spanish throne, in Barcelona. The main objective of this article is to study the information network established in Europe, mainly in the Grand Alliance side, and the different routes letters followed from The Hague to Barcelona, either using the existing postal system or known intermediaries. Letters were not the only means diplomats had to convey information to their addressees. They also sent other sources of information, like periodicals, accounts of events and pieces of information gathered from different sources, including propaganda in its various forms. It also analyses the developments of the war, the structure and evolution of these letters and the struggle of these diplomats with the other states to make sure their commitments to send military and financial support to the troops were fulfilled. He also wrote about the espionage within the various courts, and the interception diplomatic letters suffered from the opposite side.Ultimately, we'll see the efforts of these ambassadors as a means for Portugal to gain recognition within Europe, although it ended up with an increasing dependency on foreign states support.

During the War of the Spanish Succession, Portugal joined the Grand Alliance in 1703. It made it involved, from that year on, in the conflict that included most of the major European Powers in a dispute for the Spanish throne, which, ultimately, represented a contest for dominance in Europe. Under these circumstances, several diplomats were in charge of representing Portugal at the main European courts, protecting its interests and communicating regularly with the court of Lisbon.This paper addresses an understudied set of the correspondence written in this period by Francisco de Sousa Pacheco, the Portuguese envoy to The Hague, to João de Almeida Portugal, Portuguese ambassador to the court of Archduke Charles of Habsburg, one of the pretenders to the Spanish throne, in Barcelona. The main objective of this article is to study the information network established in Europe, mainly in the Grand Alliance side, and the different routes letters followed from The Hague to Barcelona, either using the existing postal system or known intermediaries. Letters were not the only means diplomats had to convey information to their addressees. They also sent other sources of information, like periodicals, accounts of events and pieces of information gathered from different sources, including propaganda in its various forms. It also analyses the developments of the war, the structure and evolution of these letters and the struggle of these diplomats with the other states to make sure their commitments to send military and financial support to the troops were fulfilled. He also wrote about the espionage within the various courts, and the interception diplomatic letters suffered from the opposite side.Ultimately, we'll see the efforts of these ambassadors as a means for Portugal to gain recognition within Europe, although it ended up with an increasing dependency on foreign states support.

This Guide is intended to help small business owners, employers, and managers deal with occupational safety and health concerns. Others involved with the small business community may also benefit from using this resource. This guide contains telephone numbers, e-mail and Internet addresses, and mailing information that will connect small businesses to government agencies, private organizations, consultants and others who can help with the occupational safety and health issues. ; October 2000. ; Includes index.

How is intimacy produced within digitally enabled communication platforms such as the mailing list? How do geographically dispersed subjects represent and 'make present' their identity? This paper addresses such questions through a case study of the email discussion group, Cybermind. Providing an evocative example of the power and affective relations across mailing list culture, the case study demonstrates that, contrary to the popular critical imagination, the linguistic and rhetorical behaviours of the online self function in a manner that is relatively predictable and therefore fairly stable. Thus the paper challenges the 1990s dream of the online, radically decentred subject. This does not overlook the fact that identity is always a performance and the product of highly mediated cultural, material and institutional forces. However, the complex interplay between technology, fantasy and materiality in the shaping of identity has not been fully explored. Crucial to the production of identity are the symbolic and technological relations of presence. Authors assume that the material signifiers of writing can be deployed to express, to make present, the particular version of subjectivity they wish to convey. Moreover, even the representations of multiple and playful selves are, in fact, quite carefully governed by their authors. The paper concludes with a discussion of the extent to which the socio-technical architecture of the mailing list is conditioned by fantasies of presence and economies of affect.

The account of gender on the Cybermind Mailing List is furthered by presentation of data and discussion from the List which touches on gender. Areas considered include: attitudes to feminism; gender and technology; awareness of gender; gendered patterns of communication; clichés about the way the different genders address each other; flaming and aggression; harassment; single gender lists; gender ambiguity; intimacy; the shifting divisions between public and private spaces; and bodies and netsex.

A publication of the Joint Legislative Committee on Aging that addresses the increasing housing needs of South Carolina's elderly population by compiling a listing and the location of available facilities. Surveys were distributed to retirement communities identified through an extensive mailing list provided by the S.C. Retirement Communities Association ·as well as those communities contained in previous Committee publications. The communities identified whether they considered themselves a continuing care facility or an independent living retirement community.

Questionnaires were mailed to 320 randomly selected public school teachers, in a 2x2 factorial design testing the effects of anonymity (questionnaires having or not having identifying numbers) & of social setting (mailing to home or school addresses). Neither anonymity nor social setting has any appreciable effect on response or speed of return, though social setting did have an effect on return rate. Rs receiving the questionnaire at school showed a higher response rate. 1 Table. Modified HA.

Abstract
Background There has been a fivefold increase of neurosurgeons over the last three decades in Germany, despite a lesser increase in operations. Currently, there are approximately 1,000 neurosurgical residents employed at training hospitals. Little is known about the overall training experience and career opportunities for these trainees.
Methods In our role as resident representatives, we implemented a mailing list for interested German neurosurgical trainees. Thereafter, we created a survey including 25 items to assess the trainees' satisfaction with their training and their perceived career prospects, which we then distributed through the mailing list. The survey was open from April 1 until May 31 2021.
Results Ninety trainees were enrolled in the mailing list and we received 81 completed responses to our survey. Overall, 47% of the trainees were very dissatisfied or dissatisfied with their training. Sixty-two percent of the trainees reported a lack of surgical training. Fifty-eight percent of trainees found it difficult to attend courses or classes and only 16% had consistent mentoring. There was an expressed desire for a more structured training program and mentoring projects. In addition, 88% of trainees were willing to relocate for fellowships outside their current hospitals.
Conclusions Half of the responders were dissatisfied with their neurosurgical training. There are various aspects that require improvement, such as the training curriculum, structured mentoring, and reduction of the amount of administrative work. We propose the implementation of a modernized structured curriculum, which addresses the mentioned aspects, in order to improve neurosurgical training and, consecutively, patient care.