Suchergebnisse

A chlorine tank truck attack could cause thousands of fatalities. As a means of preventing chlorine truck attacks, I consider the on-site generation of chlorine or hypochlorite at all U.S. facilities currently receiving chlorine by truck. I develop and apply mathematical models to estimate the amount of chlorine shipped by truck in the United States and the cost of generating chlorine at each facility. I then calculate system costs, as well as cost effectiveness in terms of expected cost per death avoided. The median estimated amount of chlorine trucked in the United States is 500 thousand tons/year, with 80% going to water and wastewater treatment. The median net cost of on-site generation totals $800 million/year for the United States as a whole. On-site generation would pass a cost-effectiveness test requiring median estimated cost per death averted to be $6.5 million or less if the investment reduces the annual probability of a chlorine truck attack in the United States by at least 0.03, depending on the chlorine attack simulation dose–response model and other factors. The expected value of the reduction of fatality risk from truck accidents causing chlorine releases would be $8 million per year, too low for cost effectiveness if that is the only benefit of on-site chlorine generation.

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.

In 2010, the adoption of nuclear power was declared a national priority in Kenya. Thereafter, a target of obtaining 4000 MW of nuclear power by the year 2030 was documented in Kenya's Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) 2010-2031. The nuclear target has drawn a lot of opposition from some Kenyans whose concerns are centered on the cost and safety risks incurred by nuclear power. The government however states that nuclear power is necessary for the diversification of the electricity generation mix and satisfaction of future electricity demand. The aim of this thesis was therefore to determine whether electricity demand in Kenya could be met without nuclear power and whether it was more economical to utilize nuclear power in Kenya's electricity generation mix rather than increase the generation capacity of other sources of electricity available to Kenya. To answer these questions, two capacity expansion models were developed. These models like the LCPDP studied the period between 2010 and 2031. The aim of the first model was to replicate LCPDP, and in doing so verify the necessity of nuclear power for meeting Kenya's future electricity demand. As far as was possible, the validation model utilized the same assumptions, including the same demand forecast that was used to develop the LCPDP 2010-2031. The validation was done to verify the necessity of nuclear power from the LCPDP's set of assumptions. The second model was developed with the aim of obtaining an updated capacity expansion plan. This plan utilized recent assumptions including an updated demand forecast. The demand was forecasted using regression of historical electricity demand against GDP in the commercial and industrial category. In the domestic category historical demand was regressed against GDP per capita and population. Based on recent data and economic forecasts, a GDP growth rate of 6% was used to forecast the electricity demand instead of 9% used in the LCPDP's demand forecast. [Please note: this thesis file has been deferred until June 2018]

Cover -- Front Matter -- Title Page -- Contents -- Chapter 1 -- Introduction -- Chapter 2 -- 30-Year-Old Child - Delayed Adulthood -- Chapter 3 -- For the Sake of Ourselves - Selfishness as a Trend -- Chapter 4 -- Work Is Your Life - Not Ours -- Chapter 5 -- Overdrawn - Consumption at any Cost -- Chapter 6 -- Let's Have Fun - Entertainment as Purpose -- Chapter 7 -- Always Online - Digital Natives -- Chapter 8 -- Bands of Brothers and Sisters - Friendship in an Age of Alienation -- Chapter 9 -- Youngsters in Pink - Flexible Femininity and Masculinity -- Chapter 10 -- Sleeping Crosswise - Singlehood as a Way of Life -- Chapter 11 -- Dating Around - Meeting Places and Dating Markets -- Chapter 12 -- Happily Ever After, For Now - The New Relationships -- Chapter 13 -- Helpless Parenting - Millennials Raising Kids -- Chapter 14 -- It's Too Long - Learning in the Age of Google -- Chapter 15 -- Who Needs Politics? - Escapism as a Worldview -- Chapter 16 -- Now What? - Intermediate Conclusions.

This paper evaluates changes in fuel procurement practices by coal-and gas-fired power plants in the United States following state-level legislation that ended cost-of-service regulation of electricity generation. I find that deregulated plants substantially reduce the price paid for coal (but not gas) and tend to employ less capital-intensive sulfur abatement techniques relative to matched plants that were not subject to any regulatory change. Deregulation also led to a shift toward more productive coal mines. I show how these results lend support to theories of asymmetric information, capital bias, and regulatory capture as important sources of regulatory distortion. (JEL L51, L71, L94, L98, Q35, Q41, Q48)

This paper presents the results of research on the total costs to society of different technologies for electric power production in the Federal Republic of Germany. The analysis views electricity costs from a macroeconomic perspective and includes the internal or private costs as well as the social costs. The focus is on fossil and nuclear fuels as conventional energy sources on the one side and on wind and photovoltaic electricity as examples of renewable energy sources on the other.

In this article a bottom-up approach to quantification of air pollution externalities from electricity generation is used to show that market-based instruments are not very effective in internalizing these external costs in six CEE countries. Although governments in CEE countries have regulated air emissions by imposing strict command-and-control measures, most of them have also introduced air emission charges and more recently taxes on electricity. We find however that the level of internalization by these two economic instruments is fairly low for existing fossil-fired power plants ranging from 3% for coal- and lignite-fuelled plants to 31% for gas-fuelled plants. The picture improves if cross-subsidies for renewable electricity are accounted for but the internalization level is still below air pollution–related external costs, between 9% and 55% for coal- and oil-fired power plants. A substantial overinternalization by these three instruments is however encountered in the case of gas-fired power plants.