Suchergebnisse

Because of a blatant partisan gerrymander, not much
drama will come from Caddo Parish Commission elections this fall, with just a
few internecine conflicts to stir up things.

Despite having a black/white population of about
49/45 percent as a result of the 2020 census, earlier this year the Commission reapportioned
itself into seven strongly majority-black districts out of 12. In terms of
registered voters (through
August), no district's majority race was less than 62 percent, District 10
being the lowest, which also underwent the most dramatic change from its previous
incarnation where prior to February's
reapportionment its plurality was 49 percent white.

Commission Democrats managed this with an extreme
power play. Disregarding its own rules that reapportionment should have occurred
in 2022, they delayed the process until one commissioner, Republican Jim Taliaferro,
resigned at the end of the year to take a seat on the Shreveport City Council and
then appointed Democrat Ron Cothran to
serve in the heavily-Republican district. That gave them seven
sure votes by which to muscle through the current plan, disregarding an alternative
that would have created six each black or white majority districts, leaving
District 10 with a small white plurality.

They segregated races to such an extent because they
didn't
want what happened with the similar School Board District 10 last year. It
was drawn in
that reapportionment to have a small black majority (leading to a slight
white plurality in registrations) that led
to a white Republican winning despite that typically whites in Caddo
typically cross over more than twice the rate to vote for black candidates than
blacks do for white candidates. The plan adopted largely hinged on the fact
that with a board divided Democrats and Republicans with six each, so an
egregious gerrymander could not have passed.

As a result, there won't be any competitive inter-party
races which in any event feature eight incumbents of which only District 12
Democrat Ken Epperson drew a challenger in the form of former District 10 GOP
Commissioner David Cox. But district demographics make Epperson a solid
favorite to win an eighth (not all consecutive) term.

A newcomer also got a free ride. Democrat Gregory Young,
a retiree who once tried for this office and also Shreveport City Council, will
replace the only term-limited commissioner, Democrat Lyndon Johnson.

Technically, another incumbent also is trying his
luck. Cothran, reapportioned out of District 8, will go for a lateral move to
District 10. He faces off against Democrat Quinton Aught, who lost narrowly to
then-Republican Mario
Chavez, who won't seek reelection in a district now much less favorable demographically
to his chances, and Democrat Kenny Gordon. Given his previous effort, Aught is
the favorite to flip the district to Democrats.

While that might get heated, so might the contest
to replace Cothran. That comes down to Republicans Grace Anne Blake, a small
business owner who applied for the appointment Cothran nabbed, and education
administrator Tim Euler. Both tout
conservative credentials in likely the most conservative district of the 12,
but until recently Blake was not registered as a Republican, back then choosing a
no party label.

But the most heated battle could transpire between
District 4 GOP incumbent John-Paul Young and
Republican Frank Thaxton. Both sons
of judges, Thaxton may have a score to settle, as he also applied for the post
Cothran received, who Young voted for. Over his term, Young frequently has
sided with Democrats and on some big issues, like voting for Cothran and the reapportionment
plan highly favorable to Democrats. But in doing so, whether knowing it he drew
Thaxton into his district, and is the incumbent most in peril of losing.

The last incumbent having to break at least a
little sweat to get back into office, District 1 Republican Todd Hopkins, received a challenge from
the right in the form of welding supply employee and political activist Republican
Chris Kracman,
Hopkins' long political service in a couple of different roles and conservative
record should be enough to reelect him.

Republicans John Atkins and Ed Lazarus, plus
Democrats Roy
Burrell, Steffon
Jones, and Stormy
Gage-Watts will return unchallenged and likely will be joined by Democrat university
administrator Victor Thomas in District 3. He faces no party Joshua Hanson, but district demographics
favor him to replace Democrat Steven Jackson,
whose tendency to grandstand has become tiresome and whose recent
legal troubles apparently convinced him to seek another office.

Democrats almost certainly will continue to control
the Commission, although this time affirmed through the ballot box, and of the three
incumbents facing a challenge in their current districts only Young has any
real threat to be sent packing.

Walter Olson


A federal grand jury yesterday charged former president Donald Trump with four criminal counts in connection with his attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election and remain in power. The four counts are: conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy to deprive persons of protected rights. The indictment cites six unnamed co‐​conspirators. Five can be identified from context as Trump advisers or administration officials, four of whom are lawyers. The sixth is a yet‐​unidentified political consultant.
Each indictment of Trump — yesterday's was the third, with a fourth expected soon from Georgia — is different in its own way. Let's start by looking at a few of the ways in which this one differs from the two previous, and then go on to briefly preview how a few legal issues may unfold in the new prosecution.
The ultimate gravity of the conduct. Of the criminal proceedings under way against Trump, this is the one that squarely addresses the conduct that posed the gravest threat to republican liberty, his attempt to nullify the decision of American voters and steal a second term as president they had declined to give him. Serious as are the Florida federal prosecution's charges of obstruction of justice and improper retention of national security documents, such conduct by an ex‐​president is unlikely to result in a constitutional crisis or bloodshed in the halls of government or the streets. This one, not so much.
No mere regulatory infraction. The Manhattan charges against Trump for falsifying business records to conceal payoffs to a paramour appear to be based at least in part on unusually strict requirements specific to New York. That is one reason many commentators have been cool toward them. In 1905 one court drew a familiar distinction as follows: "An offense malum in se is properly defined as one which is naturally evil as adjudged by the sense of a civilized community, whereas an act malum prohibitum is wrong only because made so by statute." It is hard to read the new indictment without concluding that if proved, many elements of the misconduct would be broadly condemned by civilized opinion as intrinsically wrong.
Novel legal and constitutional issues. Notwithstanding the odd frivolous theory in Trump's defense about the Presidential Records Act, the classified‐​documents indictment is likely to be cut and dried in many of the legal issues it raises. The courts each year process a substantial number of cases alleging improper document retention as well as obstruction of justice, and are unlikely to carve out a special exemption for ex‐​presidents.
Yesterday's indictment, in contrast, is likely to raise legal issues that are relatively unfamiliar, uncertain, or both. Few legal commentators are deeply familiar with all four of the statutory bases on which the grand jury filed charges, and intuitions can be deceptive: in applying the law against defrauding the United States, for example, courts have not always construed the elements of fraud in the same way they do in some other fraud areas, and the interpretations have also changed. It is not entirely settled how the elements of obstructing an official proceeding will ultimately shake out in January 6 cases, and so forth.
In other words, caution is called for at this stage in predicting the extent to which judges will trim back the scope of this prosecution, if they do. It is widely agreed that the First Amendment protects some telling of lies for political benefit, and also that it protects (as, in effect, lobbying) some efforts to persuade government officials to carry out acts that are wicked and unconstitutional. It is equally certain that the First Amendment does not protect every act of speech or persuasion that someone might retroactively try to jam into these categories. If you shut down a pending courtroom trial by phoning in a false report of a dangerous gas leak, you cannot get off by arguing that you were just exercising your speech and lobbying rights, nor are you likely to get off by arguing that you knew there was a gas stove in the court cafeteria and were basing your 911 call on a sincere belief that there was an elevated risk of asthma from stray methane.
In short, it matters in law and under the First Amendment whether speech and lobbying intended to obstruct proceedings or nullify rights was taken in good faith or otherwise, and deceitfully or otherwise. That is probably one reason why the indictment cites extensive cause to believe that Trump knew his claims of election fraud to be false, rather than wandering around in some sort of fugue state in which he might reasonably believe them to be true.

Marc Joffe


In California, private sector innovation is giving way to public sector experimentation. From the state that pioneered special gasoline formulations, cap‐​and‐​trade, and natural gas bans, we now have income‐​based electricity billing. While this idea may seem like a reasonable response to the problem of moderate‐​income families being priced out of the state, a better approach would be to tackle the underlying causes of high energy prices.
A 2022 state law instructed the California Public Utility Commission (CPUC) to replace a flat monthly charge for the fixed costs of providing electricity with an income‐​graduated charge. Californians with very low incomes already receive a discount on their fixed charges under the existing California Alternate Rates for Energy (CARE) program, but the new law requires at least three new levels. The state's major utilities have proposed income‐​based rate structures to CPUC. For the most expensive utility, San Diego Gas & Electric, monthly fixed charges would vary from $24 for customers under the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) to $128 for users earning more than 650% of FPL, which, in 2023, is $119,000 for a couple with no kids. So, on an annual basis, upper middle income energy users will pay $1248 more than those on the most modest incomes.
Implementation of this scheme will raise both fairness and privacy concerns. California and the federal government already have progressive income tax systems and benefit programs that redistribute income from higher to lower earners. Using discriminatory energy prices to further income redistribution begs the question of whether other prices should be manipulated for the same purpose. For example, should food and clothing prices also vary based on income? Further, the income‐​graduated scheme will compel utilities to collect income and family size information from their customers, which some will see as invasive.
The income‐​graduated charge is an attempt to offset the consequences of previous state policies that have made electricity expensive in the Golden State. As the accompanying charts show, retail electricity prices are far higher in California than those in other large states and in neighboring far western states. Rates per kilowatt‐​hour (kWh) in California are double those in Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, and Oregon—states that are receiving many immigrants from the Golden State.











One contributor to the high cost of electricity in California is the Utility User Tax (UUT) levied by 156 cities and four counties across the state. This tax, which affects about half the state's population, averages around 4–5% but can reach 10% in some extreme cases such as the Bay Area city of Richmond, which has relatively large shares of minority and low‐​income residents. UUTs appear to be uncommon outside of California. Golden State local governments often seek new revenue sources to fund growing expenditures given Proposition 13's limit on property taxes.
A bigger contributor to California high electricity costs is the state's climate policies. For example, until recently, California required utilities to buy power from customers who have installed rooftop solar panels at the full retail price of electricity. As the Energy Institute at UC Berkeley Haas Business School explains, this level of compensation is excessive because it fails to take into account the many fixed costs that contribute to electricity prices. By overpaying solar customers, utilities redistribute costs to other, often poorer, consumers who may not be in a position to install home photovoltaic systems. The Energy Institute estimates that this policy has been adding three to five cents per kWh for San Diego Gas & Electric customers where the effect is most pronounced.
California utilities have also had to raise rates to fund wildfire mitigation efforts, especially after Pacific Gas & Electric was found liable for a series of deadly fires in Northern California. But the severity of California wildfires is often the result of the state's poor forest management policies.
Finally, California is doing a poor job of balancing the supply and demand for electric power. The state is not permitting any new nuclear or gas‐​fired power plants. Meanwhile, it encourages more electricity use by providing rebates on electric cars and phasing out new gasoline‐​powered vehicles ahead of a ban in 2035. New wind and solar plants are insufficient to meet the state's power demand. In 2021, the state imported 30% of its electricity. The need to buy power from out‐​of‐​state further increases energy costs.
It is not clear that California's heavy handed climate policies are essential to reducing the state's greenhouse gas emissions. The state is full of environmentally conscious consumers who are motivated to conserve, buy electric cars, and switch to solar power without the state's carrots and sticks.
So instead of pursuing policies that drive up power costs and then worry about the distributional effects, state policymakers would be well served by finding ways to lower energy costs for everyone.

From the Wall Street Journal Feb 2. After 30 days I can post full text. A Consumption Tax Is the Shock Our Broken System NeedsSomething remarkable happened last month. On Jan. 9, Georgia Rep. Buddy Carter introduced the "Fair Tax" bill to the House of Representatives, and secured a promise of a floor vote. The bill eliminates the personal and corporate income tax, estate and gift tax, payroll (Social Security and Medicare) tax and the Internal Revenue Service. It replaces them with a single national sales tax. Business investment is exempt, so it is effectively a consumption tax. Each household would get a check each month, so that purchases up to the poverty line are effectively not taxed.Mainstream media and Democrats instantly deplored the measure. Mother Jones said it would "turbocharge inequality." Rep. Pramila Jayapal called it a "tax cut for the rich, period." The New Republic asserted that consumption taxes are "always a dumb idea"—but presumably not in Europe, where 20% value-added taxes finance welfare states—and called it a "Republican dream to build a wealth aristocracy."Even the Journal's editorial board disapproved, though mostly on politics rather than substance, admitting a consumption tax "might make sense" if Congress were "writing the tax code from scratch." The board worried that we might end up with income and sales taxes, like Europe. And the tax change won't pass, making it is a "masochistic vote" that it will "give Democrats a potent campaign issue."But our income and estate tax system is broken. It has high statutory rates with a Swiss cheese of exemptions, immense cost, unfairness and distortion. Former President Trump's taxes are Exhibit A, no longer making headlines because we learned that he simply aggressively exploits the complex rules and deductions that Congress offers to wealthy politically connected real-estate investors.A consumption tax, with none of the absurd complexity of our current taxes, is the answer. It funds the government with the least economic distortion. A consumption tax need not be regressive. It's easy enough to exempt the first few thousand dollars of consumption, or add to the rebate.More important, the progressivity of a whole tax and transfer system matters, not of a particular tax in isolation. If a flat consumption tax finances greater benefits to people of lesser means, the overall system could be more progressive than what we have now. A consumption tax would still finance food stamps, housing, Medicaid, and so forth. And it would be particularly efficient at raising revenue, meaning there would potentially be more to distribute—a point that has led some conservatives to object to a consumption tax.Others complain that the rate will be high. An effective 30% consumption tax, added to state sales taxes as high as 10%, could add up to a 40% or greater rate. But taxes overall must finance what the government spends. Collecting it in one tax rather than lots of smaller taxes doesn't change the overall rate. It's better for voters to see how much the government takes.A range of implicit subsidies will disappear. Good. Subsidies should be transparent. Money for electric cars, health insurance, housing, and so forth should be appropriated and sent as checks, not hidden as tax deductions or credits. They can still be as large as Congress and voters wish. However, it is vital to keep the tax at a flat rate and not try to redistribute income or subsidize industries by different tax rates.Will there be some problems of compliance and evasion? Probably, but sales taxes or value-added taxes are hardly new, untested ideas. The Fair Tax bill addresses many objections and real-world concerns, and more refinements can follow. A value-added tax or personal-consumption tax can achieve similar goals.This is a big moment. For a long time, consumption taxes have been debated in academic articles, books, think-tank reports, administration white papers and so forth. When the U.S. eventually decides to reform the tax code, consumption taxes will be the obvious answer. It is great news that real elected politicians like Rep. Carter get it, and are willing to stick their necks out to try to get it passed.No, it's not likely to pass this year, or next. All great reforms take time. The 8-hour workday and Social Security started as wild-eyed dreams of the socialist party. Civil rights took bill after bill being voted down. The income tax took a long time. But if we never talk about the promised land and only squabble over the next fork in the road, surely we will never get there.

The excitement of public space exploration was for decades captured only in Hollywood science fiction productions, until the 2000s saw the emergence of the New Space industry, combining the activities of private space companies and governmental actors. As a sector of New Space, the commercial space tourism industry aims to satisfy the postmodern traveller's desire for new experiences, and is forecast to develop as a multi-billion tourism sector in the future. The emergent New Space tourism industry has three major operators, SpaceX, Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin, all from private and influential backgrounds and all originally benefiting from United States governmental initiatives, such as that to improve technology for a reusable launch vehicle. The first operational New Space tourism flights took place in 2021, however, the technological revolution has simultaneously created new possibilities for travellers to join various travel adventures virtually, thus democratising the space experience for the wider public, but also limited the physical experience in the pioneering stage to the wealthy elite. The global megatrend of sustainability was furthered by the concerns of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (2018) regarding the future effects of climate change on Earth. The growth of tourism has led to a significant increase in its environmental impact which can no longer be ignored, and thus the need for more sustainable future scenario planning in the New Space industry, including tourism. Apart from being an energy- and emissions-related driver of new technological developments, sustainable development has also brought responsibility and ethics to global tourism operations, and influenced the creation of global regulations. Rapidly advancing technological developments also contributed to Finland becoming a New Space industry nation in 2017. One of the objectives of Finland´s space strategy is to provide an attractive and sustainably-approached global environment for space-related business by 2025, and the country´s recently established space legislation advocates such future points of action. This PhD thesis expands the academic research on space tourism by creating alternative future scenarios to enhance elements of sustainability in the New Space tourism industry. The focus was on investigating how elements of sustainability could be included in development planning for New Space tourism, and identifying concepts relating to the contexts of space tourism and sustainability that could be highlighted through futures research, and how space tourism and sustainability is currently envisioned by the public and professionals in the field in Finland. The empirical research was conducted through in-depth interviews, a public survey and a professional Delphi study. The analysis, using futures methods to interpret weak signals, following the principles of grounded theory, and supplemented by the Delphi method and comparative content analysis, was collated into two peerreviewed articles and a book chapter, written between 2017-2021. The findings demonstrate that sustainability in New Space tourism industry could be supported through three alternative future scenarios: through the planning of global space regulations, through improving global fairness, and through the implementation of virtual and technological innovations. ; Avaruusmatkailu on vuosikymmenien aikana tullut suurelle yleisölle tutuksi etenkin Hollywood-lähtöisten fantasiamaailmojen kautta. Askel kohti operatiivista toimintaa otettiin kuitenkin vasta vuosituhannen vaihtumisen jälkeen, jolloin uusi kaupallinen avaruusliiketoimintasektori, "New Space", kehittyi tuoden uudet yksityiset avaruusyritykset toimijoiksi perinteisten avaruusvaltioiden rinnalle. Kaupallisen avaruusturismin tavoitteena on luoda postmodernille matkailijalle uusia elämyksiä Virgin Galactic, SpaceX ja Blue Origin ovat avaruusmatkailuliiketoiminnan tunnetuimmat, yksityisen rahoituspohjan omaavat yritykset, jotka toteuttivat ensimmäiset avaruusturismilentonsa vuonna 2021. Yritykset myös hyödynsivät toimintansa alkuvaiheessa Yhdysvaltojen hallituksen hankerahoituksia uudelleenkäytettävien kantorakettien tekniikan kehittämiseksi, edistäen massoille suunnattavan avaruusturismin kehitystä. Teknologian nopea kehitys on luonut uusia mahdollisuuksia kokea matkailua myös virtuaalimaailmojen kautta, mitä voisi tulevaisuudessa hyödyntää myös avaruuselämyskontekstissa - etenkin kun fyysinen avaruusturismi rajautuu alussa vain varakkaimpiin matkailijoihin. Kaupallinen avaruusmatkailu on alkamassa aikakautena, jolloin kestävän kehityksen globaali megatrendi vahvistui synkkäennusteisen kansainvälisen ilmastoraportin (IPCC, 2018) myötä. Matkailuteollisuuden kasvu on lisännyt myös negatiivisia ympäristövaikutuksia, minkä vuoksi uuden New Space matkailuliiketoiminnan tulevaisuusskenaariot tulisi luoda kestävän kehityksen linjauksia mukaileviksi. Samalla kun eri teollisuusalat toteuttavat yhä ympäristöystävällisimpiä energia- ja päästöratkaisuja, myös yhteiskunnallisen yritysvastuullisuuden sekä lainsäädännön merkitykset ovat korostuneet entisestään. Piensatelliittiteknologian kehitys ja kaupallisen avaruusliiketoiminnan edistys mahdollisti Suomen liittymisen perinteisten avaruusvaltioiden joukkoon vuonna 2017. Suomen avaruusstrategian yksi tavoitteista on luoda kilpailukykyinen ympäristö kaupalliselle avaruusliiketoiminnalle vuoteen 2025 mennessä, painottaen kansallisessa avaruuslaissa esiintuotuja ja kestävää kehitystä mukailevia toimintamalleja. Tämä väitöskirja laajentaa avaruusmatkailukontekstin akateemista tutkimusta luomalla vaihtoehtoisia skenaarioita kestävän kehityksen vahvistamiseksi uudessa New Space matkailuliiketoiminnassa. Tutkimuksen tavoitteina oli selvittää, miten kestävää kehitystä voidaan sisällyttää New Space matkailuliiketoiminnan tulevaisuussuunnitteluun, tunnistaa avaruusmatkailun ja kestävän kehityksen konteksteihin liittyviä käsitteitä, jotka korostuvat tulevaisuuden tutkimuksen avulla ja kartoittaa avaruusmatkailun ja kestävän kehityksen näkemyksiä suomalaisen väestön ja asiantuntijoiden keskuudessa. Empiirinen tutkimusaineisto koostui asiantuntijoiden syvähaastatteluista, yleisökyselystä sekä Delfoi asiantuntijapaneelista. Tulevaisuuden tutkimusta ja grounded theory- metodologiaa hyödyntäen, Delfoi-menetelmällä ja vertailevalla sisällönanalyysilla täydennettyinä, julkaistiin tutkimustuloksista kaksi vertaisarvioitua tiedeartikkelia sekä vertaisarvioitu kirjaluku vuosien 2017-2021 aikana. Tutkimustulokset osoittivat, että kestävää kehitystä New Space matkailuliiketoiminnassa voidaan tukea kolmessa vaihtoehtoisessa tulevaisuusskenaariossa: globaalin avaruuslainsäädännön edistämisen kautta, globaalin oikeudenmukaisuuden huomioimisen kautta sekä virtuaalisten ja teknisten innovaatioiden käyttöönoton kautta.

Cette thèse, organisée en trois chapitres, porte sur la modélisation et la prévision des séries chronologiques économiques et financières. Les deux premiers chapitres proposent de nouveaux modèles économétriques pour l'analyse des données économiques et financières en relaxant certaines hypothèses irréalistes habituellement faites dans la littérature. Le chapitre 1 développe un nouveau modèle de volatilité appelé TVP[indice ANN]-GARCH. Ce modèle offre une dynamique riche pour modéliser les données financières en considérant une structure GARCH (Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) dans laquelle les paramètres varient dans le temps selon un réseau de neurones artificiels (ANN). L'utilisation des ANNs permet de résoudre le problème de l'évaluation de la vraisemblance (présent dans les modèles à paramètres variables dans le temps (TVP)) et permet également l'utilisation de variables explicatives supplémentaires. Le chapitre développe également un algorithme Monte Carlo séquentiel (SMC) original et efficace pour estimer le modèle. Une application empirique montre que le modèle se compare favorablement aux processus de volatilité populaires en termes de prévisions de court et de long terme. L'approche peut facilement être étendue à tout modèle à paramètres fixes. Le chapitre 2 développe trois polynômes de retard autorégressifs (AR) parcimonieux qui génèrent des fonctions d'autocorrélation à décroissance lente, comme on l'observe généralement dans les séries chronologiques financières et économiques. La dynamique des polynômes de retard est similaire à celle de deux processus très performants, à savoir le modèle MSM (Multifractal Markov-Switching) et le modèle FHMV (Factorial Hidden Markov Volatility). Ils sont très flexibles car ils peuvent être appliqués à de nombreux modèles populaires tels que les processus ARMA, GARCH et de volatilité stochastique. Une analyse empirique met en évidence l'utilité des polynômes de retard pour la prévision de la moyenne conditionnelle et de la volatilité. Ils devraient être considérés comme des modèles de prévision alternatifs pour les séries chronologiques économiques et financières. Le dernier chapitre s'appuie sur une approche de régression prédictive en deux étapes pour identifier l'impact des nouvelles macroéconomiques américaines sur les rendements obligataires de trois petites économies ouvertes (Canada, Royaume-Uni et Suède). Nos résultats suggèrent que les nouvelles macroéconomiques américaines sont significativement plus importantes pour expliquer la dynamique de la courbe des taux dans les petites économies ouvertes (PEO) que les nouvelles nationales elles-mêmes. Les nouvelles relatives à la politique monétaire américaine ne sont pas les seuls facteurs importants des variations des rendements obligataires des PEO, mais les nouvelles relatives au cycle économique jouent également un rôle significatif. ; This thesis, organized in three chapters, focuses on modelling and forecasting economic and financial time series. The first two chapters propose new econometric models for analysing economic and financial data by relaxing unrealistic assumptions usually made in the literature. Chapter 1 develops a new volatility model named TVP[subscript ANN]-GARCH. The model offers rich dynamics to model financial data by allowing for a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) structure in which parameters vary over time according to an artificial neural network (ANN). The use of ANNs for parameters dynamics is a valuable contribution as it helps to deal with the problem of likelihood evaluation (exhibited in time-varying parameters (TVP) models). It also allows for the use of additional explanatory variables. The chapter develops an original and efficient Sequential Monte Carlo sampler (SMC) to estimate the model. An empirical application shows that the model favourably compares to popular volatility processes in terms of out-of sample fit. The approach can easily be extended to any fixed-parameters model. Chapter 2 develops three parsimonious autoregressive (AR) lag polynomials that generate slowly decaying autocorrelation functions as generally observed financial and economic time series. The dynamics of the lag polynomials are similar to that of two well performing processes, namely the Markov-Switching Multifractal (MSM) and the Factorial Hidden Markov Volatility (FHMV) models. They are very flexible as they can be applied in many popular models such as ARMA, GARCH, and stochastic volatility processes. An empirical analysis highlights the usefulness of the lag polynomials for conditional mean and volatility forecasting. They could be considered as forecasting alternatives for economic and financial time series. The last chapter relies on a two steps predictive regression approach to identify the impact of US macroeconomic releases on three small open economies (Canada, United Kingdom, and Sweden) bond yields at high and low frequencies. Our findings suggest that US macro news are significantly more important in explaining yield curve dynamics in small open economies (SOEs) than domestic news itself. Not only US monetary policy news are important drivers of SOEs bond yield changes, but business cycle news also play a significant role.

We are witnessing an emerging digital revolution. For the past 25–30 years, at an increasing pace, digital technologies—especially the internet, mobile phones and smartphones—have transformed the everyday lives of human beings. The pace of change will increase, and new digital technologies will become even more tightly entangled in human everyday lives. Artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), 6G wireless solutions, virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), mixed reality (XR), robots and various platforms for remote and hybrid communication will become embedded in our lives at home, work and school. Digitalisation has been identified as a megatrend, for example, by the OECD (2016; 2019). While digitalisation processes permeate all aspects of life, special attention has been paid to its impact on the ageing population, everyday communication practices, education and learning and working life. For example, it has been argued that digital solutions and technologies have the potential to improve quality of life, speed up processes and increase efficiency. At the same time, digitalisation is likely to bring with it unexpected trends and challenges. For example, AI and robots will doubtlessly speed up or take over many routine-based work tasks from humans, leading to the disappearance of certain occupations and the need for re-education. This, in turn, will lead to an increased demand for skills that are unique to humans and that technologies are not able to master. Thus, developing human competences in the emerging digital era will require not only the mastering of new technical skills, but also the advancement of interpersonal, emotional, literacy and problem-solving skills. It is important to identify and describe the digitalisation phenomena—pertaining to individuals and societies—and seek human-centric answers and solutions that advance the benefits of and mitigate the possible adverse effects of digitalisation (e.g. inequality, divisions, vulnerability and unemployment). This requires directing the focus on strengthening the human skills and competences that will be needed for a sustainable digital future. Digital technologies should be seen as possibilities, not as necessities. There is a need to call attention to the co-evolutionary processes between humans and emerging digital technologies—that is, the ways in which humans grow up with and live their lives alongside digital technologies. It is imperative to gain in-depth knowledge about the natural ways in which digital technologies are embedded in human everyday lives—for example, how people learn, interact and communicate in remote and hybrid settings or with artificial intelligence; how new digital technologies could be used to support continuous learning and understand learning processes better and how health and well-being can be promoted with the help of new digital solutions. Another significant consideration revolves around the co-creation of our digital futures. Important questions to be asked are as follows: Who are the ones to co-create digital solutions for the future? How can humans and human sciences better contribute to digitalisation and define how emerging technologies shape society and the future? Although academic and business actors have recently fostered inclusion and diversity in their co-creation processes, more must be done. The empowerment of ordinary people to start acting as active makers and shapers of our digital futures is required, as is giving voice to those who have traditionally been silenced or marginalised in the development of digital technology. In the emerging co-creation processes, emphasis should be placed on social sustainability and contextual sensitivity. Such processes are always value-laden and political and intimately intertwined with ethical issues. Constant and accelerating change characterises contemporary human systems, our everyday lives and the environment. Resilience thinking has become one of the major conceptual tools for understanding and dealing with change. It is a multi-scalar idea referring to the capacity of individuals and human systems to absorb disturbances and reorganise their functionality while undergoing a change. Based on the evolving new digital technologies, there is a pressing need to understand how these technologies could be utilised for human well-being, sustainable lifestyles and a better environment. This calls for analysing different scales and types of resilience in order to develop better technology-based solutions for human-centred development in the new digital era. This white paper is a collaborative effort by researchers from six faculties and groups working on questions related to digitalisation at the University of Oulu, Finland. We have identified questions and challenges related to the emerging digital era and suggest directions that will make possible a human-centric digital future and strengthen the competences of humans and humanity in this era.

Despite an increase in awareness about topics like diversity and inclusion in the fashion industry, many organizations managing fashion brands still confuse these two terms; they use them interchangeably or only focusing on diversity marketing, forgetting to implement inclusive policies within the organization before waving the flag of inclusion in the media. This article addresses historical, social, communicational and managerial perspectives to discuss the challenges that organizations face in regards to diversity and inclusion in the fashion industry. The aim of this article is to define and clarify key concepts around diversity and inclusion, and to provide examples of how fashion brands are integrating them into different aspects of their activities; including company culture, product development, media representation, and customer relations. Regarding diversity, the focus is mainly on race, gender expression, physical abilities, age and body types. The article starts by addressing how the fashion industry was historically based on exclusion and privilege, having a social influence since its origins, operating from a basic human need for belonging, and establishing normative behaviours. Over the last years, diversity has taken centre stage, but there is much work to be done. Although year 2018 was considered "the year of diversity" by fashion media, looking at the quantitative analyses of plus-size, multiracial, fifty-plus or transgender identity representation between 2018 and 2021, we see that numbers do not support this claim. What is missing is a radical mindset shift from a binary perspective to a spectrum-based understanding. People tend to think in terms of binary opposites that are mutually exclusive, whereas an inclusive perspective sees no borders but a fluid transition that connects apparent opposites. Another key concept included in this paper is intersectionality, which considers how different aspects of social discrimination overlap each other. After the historical and sociological revision of the fashion industry and elaborating on the key concepts relevant to the discussion, these are applied to the analysis of concrete brands, products and campaigns within the industry. The scope covers four examples of best practices in ready-to-wear brands, social entrepreneurship and bottom-up activism initiated by underrepresented consumers asking for visibility. Special attention is placed on brands and how their products are opening a new stage for inclusion of diverse body types and non-conforming gender identities. Finally, the focus shifts to the business case for inclusion, covering the systemic and structural changes needed inside an organization in order to create a culture of inclusion, and how this will lead to an increased feeling of belonging of employees, resulting in better performance and enhanced profitability. Keywords: inclusion, diversity, binary thinking, intersectionality, gender-inclusive, inclusive fashion ; Nonostante un aumento della consapevolezza su argomenti come diversità e inclusione nell'industria della moda, sono ancora molti quei brand che confondono ancora questi due termini; li usano in modo intercambiabile o concentrandosi solo sul marketing della diversità, dimenticando di implementare politiche inclusive all'interno dell'organizzazione. Il saggio prende in esame le prospettive storiche, sociali, comunicative e manageriali per discutere le sfide che i brand devono affrontare quando si parla di diversità e inclusione nel settore della moda. Lo scopo è definire e chiarire i concetti chiave di diversità e inclusione e fornire esempi di come i marchi di moda li stiano integrando nei diversi aspetti delle loro attività; compresa la cultura aziendale, lo sviluppo del prodotto, la rappresentazione dei media e le relazioni con i clienti. Per quanto riguarda la diversità, l'attenzione si concentra principalmente su razza, espressione di genere, capacità fisiche, età e tipo di corporatura. L'articolo inizia affrontando come l'industria della moda sia stata storicamente basata sull'esclusione e sul privilegio, avendo un'influenza sociale sin dalle sue origini, operando da un fondamentale bisogno umano di appartenenza e stabilendo comportamenti normativi. Negli ultimi anni, la diversità è stata al centro della scena, ma molto c'è ancora da fare. Sebbene l'anno 2018 sia stato considerato "l'anno della diversità" dai media della moda, le analisi quantitative della rappresentazione dell'identità plus size, multirazziale o transgender tra il 2018 e il 2021 non supportano tale affermazione. Quello che manca è un radicale cambiamento di mentalità. Le persone tendono a pensare in termini binari, mentre una prospettiva inclusiva non vede confini ma una transizione fluida che collega e unisce gli opposti. Un altro concetto chiave discusso è quelo dell'intersezionalità, che considera come i diversi aspetti della discriminazione sociale si sovrappongono l'un l'altro. Dopo l'analisi storica e sociologica dell'industria della moda e l'elaborazione dei concetti chiave rilevanti per la discussione, questi vengono applicati all'analisi di brand, prodotti del settore moda. Il saggio prende in esame quattro esempi di buone pratiche nei marchi di prêt-à-porter. Infine, si parlerà di quei cambiamenti strutturali necessari all'interno di un'organizzazione al fine di creare una cultura dell'inclusione. Parole chiave: inclusione, diversità, pensiero binario, intersezionalità, genere inclusivo, moda inclusiva

Successful export sectors in manufacturing and agribusiness are important drivers of structural transformation in Sub-Sahara African countries. Backed by industrial policies and active state involvement, a small number of successful productive export sectors has emerged in Sub-Saharan Africa. This thesis asks the question: How do politics shape the promotion of export-driven industrialisation and firm-level upgrading in Sub-Saharan Africa? It exemplifies this question with an in-depth, qualitative study of the cashew processing industry in Mozambique in the period from 1991 until 2019. Mozambique used to be one of the world's largest producers and processors of cashew nuts in the 1960s and 1970s. At the end of the 20th century, the cashew processing industry broke down completely but has re-emerged as one of the country's few successful agro-processing exports. The thesis draws on theoretical approaches from the fields of political science, notably the political settlements framework, global value chain analysis and the research on technological capabilities to explore why the Mozambican Government supported the cashew processing industry and how Mozambican cashew processors acquired the technological capabilities needed to access the global cashew value chain and to upgrade. It makes an important theoretical contribution by linking the political settlements framework and the literature on upgrading in global value chains to study how politics shaped productive sector promotion and upgrading in the Mozambican cashew processing industry. The findings of the thesis are based on extensive primary data, including 58 expert interviews and 10 firm surveys, that was collected in Mozambique in 2018 as well as a broad base of secondary literature. The thesis argues that the Mozambican Government supported the cashew processing industry because it became important for the Government's political survival. Promoting the cashew sector formed part of an electoral strategy for the ruling FRELIMO coalition and a means to keep FRELIMO factions united by offering economic opportunities to key constituencies. In 1999, it adopted a protectionist cashew law that created strong incentives for cashew processing in Mozambique. This not only facilitated the re-emergence of the cashew processing industry after its breakdown. The law and the active involvement of the National Cashew Institute (INCAJU) also affected the governance of the local cashew value chain, the creation of backward linkages, and the upgrading paths of cashew processors. The findings of the thesis suggest that the cashew law reduced the pressure on the cashew processing industry to upgrade. The law further created opportunities for formal and informal rent creation for members of the political elite and lower level FRELIMO officials that prevented a far-reaching reform of the law. The thesis shows that international buyers do not promote upgrading among Sub-Sahara African firms in global value chains with market-based or modular governance. Moreover, firms that operate in countries where industrial policies are not enforced effectively cannot draw on the support of government institutions to enhance their capabilities and to upgrade. Firms therefore mainly depended on costly learning channels at firm level, e.g. learning by doing or hiring skilled labour, and/or on technical assistance from donors to build the technological capabilities needed to access global value chains and to remain competitive. The findings of the thesis suggest that researchers, governments, development practitioners and consultants need to rethink their understanding of upgrading in GVCs in four ways. First, they need to move away from understanding upgrading in terms of moving towards more complex, higher value-added activities in GVCs (functional upgrading). Instead, it is important to consider the potential of other, more realistic types of upgrading for firms in low-income countries, such reducing risks by diversifying suppliers and buyers or increasing rewards by making production processes more efficient. Second, they need to replace an overly positive view on upgrading that neglects possible side-effects at sector and/or country level. Third, GVC participation on its own does not promote upgrading among local supplier firms in Sub-Saharan Africa. The interests of lead firms and Sub-Sahara African supplier firms may not be aligned or even conflicting. Targeted industrial policies and the creation of institutions that effectively promote capability building among firms therefore become even more important. Finally, upgrading needs to be understood as a process that is not only shaped by interactions between firms, but also by local domestic politics. The findings of the thesis are highly relevant for scholars from the fields of political science, development studies, and economics. Its practical implications and tools, e.g. a technological capabilities matrix for the cashew industry, are of interest for development practitioners, members of public institutions in Sub-Sahara African countries, local entrepreneurs, and representatives of local business associations that are involved in promoting export sectors and upgrading among local firms.

The Historical Center in Old Havana holds its own management model, which conditions a favorable scenario to develop creative economies. This research aims at analyzing the imbalances in the development processes of creative industries of the non-state sector in this territory. We selected two of its popular councils, with substantial socioeconomic differences, and took a representative sample of 150 private sector enterprises in order to identify those associated with the creative economy. In addition, we identified the potentialities and barriers presented by these two areas for the development of private creative economies, and elaborated possible lines of action to develop in these territories. Regardless of being an area with an excellent artistic development, there are few selfemployed businesses that can be classified as creative economies, as there is a large number of repetitive proposals, without differentiated cultural values, and with a marked lack of culture on the subject. The results confirm that the popular councils under study show differences when disseminating these industries, so we analyzed the importance of outlining policies that contribute to the fair development of these economies throughout the Historic Center in Old Havana. ; El Centro Histórico de la Habana Vieja posee un modelo de gestión propio que condiciona un escenario propicio para el desarrollo de las economías creativas. Esta investigación se propone analizar los desequilibrios en los procesos de desarrollo de las industrias creativas del sector no estatal en este territorio. Se seleccionaron dos de sus consejos populares, con diferencias socioeconómicas sustanciales, y se tomó una muestra representativa de 150 emprendimientos del sector privado con el fin de identificar aquellos que se encuentran asociados a la economía creativa. Además, se identificaron las potencialidades y las barreras que presentan estas dos áreas para el desarrollo de las economías creativas privadas y se elaboraron las posibles líneas de acción para desarrollar en estos territorios. A pesar de estar en una zona con un desarrollo artístico de excelencia, son pocos los negocios por cuenta propia que pueden clasificar como economías creativas, pues existe una gran cantidad de propuestas repetitivas, sin valores culturales diferenciados y una marcada incultura sobre el tema. Se confirmó que los consejos populares estudiados presentan diferencias en cuanto a la diseminación de estas industrias, por lo que se analizó la importancia de trazar políticas que tributen al desarrollo equitativo de estas economías en todo el Centro Histórico de La Habana Vieja. ; Le Centre historique de La Havane possède un modèle de gestion propre créant un scénario favorable à la mise en place d'économies de type créatives. Cette recherche vise à analyser les déséquilibres des processus de développement des industries créatives du secteur non étatique présentes sur ce territoire. Nous avons ainsi sélectionné deux conseils populaires, aux différences socio-économiques substantielles, et un échantillon représentatif de 150 entreprises du secteur privé afin d'identifier les secteurs associés à l'économie créative. Les potentialités et difficultés de ce secteur pour le développement d'une économie créative privée ont été identifiées et permettent d'élaborer des pistes d'action possibles. Malgré le foisonnement artistique de la zone d'étude, peu d'entreprises font partie des économies créatives du fait d'un grand nombre de propositions répétitives, sans valeurs culturelles différenciées et un manque de connaissances entrepreneuriales. Les conseils populaires étudiés présentent des différences notables en termes de diffusion des industries créatives pour lesquelles l'importance de l'élaboration des politiques publiques contribuent au développement économique équitable du centre historique de la Vieille Havane. ; O Centro Histórico de Havana Velha possui um modelo de gestão próprio que condiciona um cenário favorável ao desenvolvimento de economias criativas. Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo analisar os desequilíbrios nos processos de desenvolvimento das indústrias criativas do setor não estatal neste território. Foram selecionados dois de seus conselhos populares, com diferenças socioeconômicas significativas, e foi colhida uma amostra representativa de 150 empresas do setor privado para identificar aquelas que estão associadas à economia criativa. Além disso, foram identificadas as potencialidades e barreiras que apresentam essas duas áreas para o desenvolvimento das economias criativas privadas e foram elaboradas possíveis linhas de ação para se desenvolver nesses territórios. Apesar de estar em uma área com excelente desenvolvimento artístico, são poucos os negócios que, por conta própria, podem se classificar como economias criativas, visto que há um grande número de propostas repetitivas, sem valores culturais diferenciados e com uma acentuada falta de cultura sobre o assunto. Constatou-se que os conselhos populares estudados apresentam diferenças em termos de difusão dessas indústrias, pois analisou-se a importância de se traçar políticas que contribuam para o desenvolvimento equitativo dessas economias em todo o Centro Histórico de Havana Velha.

Executive summary We are witnessing an emerging digital revolution. For the past 25–30 years, at an increasing pace, digital technologies—especially the internet, mobile phones and smartphones—have transformed the everyday lives of human beings. The pace of change will increase, and new digital technologies will become even more tightly entangled in human everyday lives. Artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), 6G wireless solutions, virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), mixed reality (XR), robots and various platforms for remote and hybrid communication will become embedded in our lives at home, work and school. Digitalisation has been identified as a megatrend, for example, by the OECD (2016; 2019). While digitalisation processes permeate all aspects of life, special attention has been paid to its impact on the ageing population, everyday communication practices, education and learning and working life. For example, it has been argued that digital solutions and technologies have the potential to improve quality of life, speed up processes and increase efficiency. At the same time, digitalisation is likely to bring with it unexpected trends and challenges. For example, AI and robots will doubtlessly speed up or take over many routine-based work tasks from humans, leading to the disappearance of certain occupations and the need for re-education. This, in turn, will lead to an increased demand for skills that are unique to humans and that technologies are not able to master. Thus, developing human competences in the emerging digital era will require not only the mastering of new technical skills, but also the advancement of interpersonal, emotional, literacy and problem-solving skills. It is important to identify and describe the digitalisation phenomena—pertaining to individuals and societies—and seek human-centric answers and solutions that advance the benefits of and mitigate the possible adverse effects of digitalisation (e.g. inequality, divisions, vulnerability and unemployment). This requires directing the focus on strengthening the human skills and competences that will be needed for a sustainable digital future. Digital technologies should be seen as possibilities, not as necessities. There is a need to call attention to the co-evolutionary processes between humans and emerging digital technologies—that is, the ways in which humans grow up with and live their lives alongside digital technologies. It is imperative to gain in-depth knowledge about the natural ways in which digital technologies are embedded in human everyday lives—for example, how people learn, interact and communicate in remote and hybrid settings or with artificial intelligence; how new digital technologies could be used to support continuous learning and understand learning processes better and how health and well-being can be promoted with the help of new digital solutions. Another significant consideration revolves around the co-creation of our digital futures. Important questions to be asked are as follows: Who are the ones to co-create digital solutions for the future? How can humans and human sciences better contribute to digitalisation and define how emerging technologies shape society and the future? Although academic and business actors have recently fostered inclusion and diversity in their co-creation processes, more must be done. The empowerment of ordinary people to start acting as active makers and shapers of our digital futures is required, as is giving voice to those who have traditionally been silenced or marginalised in the development of digital technology. In the emerging co-creation processes, emphasis should be placed on social sustainability and contextual sensitivity. Such processes are always value-laden and political and intimately intertwined with ethical issues. Constant and accelerating change characterises contemporary human systems, our everyday lives and the environment. Resilience thinking has become one of the major conceptual tools for understanding and dealing with change. It is a multi-scalar idea referring to the capacity of individuals and human systems to absorb disturbances and reorganise their functionality while undergoing a change. Based on the evolving new digital technologies, there is a pressing need to understand how these technologies could be utilised for human well-being, sustainable lifestyles and a better environment. This calls for analysing different scales and types of resilience in order to develop better technology-based solutions for human-centred development in the new digital era. This white paper is a collaborative effort by researchers from six faculties and groups working on questions related to digitalisation at the University of Oulu, Finland. We have identified questions and challenges related to the emerging digital era and suggest directions that will make possible a human-centric digital future and strengthen the competences of humans and humanity in this era.

Abstract. The current linear economic system has been found to be in direct conflict with the framework set by sustainable development. The accelerating growth of the world's population and new masses joining the middle-class are causing an explosive increase in demand for resources and the more dense presence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Increasing of production efficiency cannot guarantee the adequacy of natural resources and the preservation of living conditions for future generations, and circular economy has been proposed as a solution. (Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2012.) In the transition from the linear to circular economy, economic instruments are needed to accelerate and facilitate the transition. The European Commission has proposed staggering of the VAT system on environmental grounds by reducing the tax rate on repair services. This could potentially promote products to remain in circulation for as long as possible, which is one of the main objectives of the circular economy. (European Commission, 2019.) The thesis aims to examine how the VAT system could be utilized in the transition from a linear economic system to a circular economy. In particular, the study will look at the structure of the current VAT system and its potential, as well as the limitations of its application set by the Directive. The theoretical part is done as a literature review. Based on this theoretical basis, qualitative interviews have been conducted with six VAT experts from the Tax Administration. The interviews have been transliterated and a theory-driven data analysis has been performed. The interviews have been conducted anonymously and the answers of the interviewees do not reflect the policy of the Tax Administration in this regard. The results of the thesis are based on both a theoretical basis and expert interviews. The study revealed that VAT, as an indirect consumption tax, has a significant potential to influence consumer prices and thus consumption habits (Tikkanen et al., 2018). However, this potential is limited by the asymmetric impact of changes in tax rates on consumer prices, the boundary conditions set out in Annex III of the VAT Directive (2006/112 / EC), and the possible increase in administrative costs during the change in tax rates. Different tax rates have also been suspected to be in conflict with the principle of neutrality of the VAT system. (Mirrlees et al., 2011.) The price effect has been found to be weaker when lowering tax rates than when raising them, both in a study based on listed tax and price changes (Benzarti et al., 2020) and in a VAT reduction experiment conducted in Finland in 2007–2011. However, the more environmentally friendly attitudes of the 2020s and the possible deletion of Annex III to the Directive, with the change proposed by the Commission in 2019, give rise to the possibility of a renewed experiment in reducing VAT rates. The thesis could be used as a starting point for a more detailed study of the price effects of reduced VAT rates on repair services from a business perspective.Tiivistelmä. Nykyisen lineaarisen talousjärjestelmän on todettu olevan ristiriidassa kestävän kehityksen asettaman viitekehyksen kanssa. Maailman populaation kiihtyvä kasvu ja ihmisryhmien keskiluokkaistuminen aiheuttavat resurssien kysynnän räjähdysmäisen lisääntymisen ja ilmastonmuutosta edistävien kasvihuonekaasujen tiheämmän esiintymisen ilmakehässä. Pelkällä tuotannon tehostamisella ei voida taata luonnonvarojen riittämistä ja elinolojen säilymistä tuleville sukupolville ja ratkaisuksi on ehdotettu kiertotalousjärjestelmää. (Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2012.) Siirtymävaiheessa lineaarisesta järjestelmästä kiertotalouteen tarvitaan siirtymistä nopeuttavia ja helpottavia taloudellisia ohjauskeinoja. Muun muassa Euroopan komissio on ehdottanut arvonlisäverojärjestelmää porrastettavaksi ympäristöperustein siten, että korjauspalveluiden verokantaa alennettaisiin. Tällä tavoin voitaisiin potentiaalisesti edistää tuotteiden pysymistä kierrossa mahdollisimman pitkään, mikä on yksi kiertotalouden päätavoitteista. (Euroopan komissio, 2019.) Tutkielma pyrkii selvittämään, miten arvonlisäverojärjestelmää voitaisiin hyödyntää siirtymävaiheessa lineaarisesta talousjärjestelmästä kiertotalouteen. Tutkimus perehtyy varsinkin nykyisen järjestelmän rakenteeseen ja sen tarjoamaan potentiaaliin sekä direktiivin (2006/112/EC) asettamiin soveltamisrajoituksiin. Teoriaosuus on tehty kirjallisuuskatsauksena. Tähän teoreettiseen pohjaan nojautuen on tehty kvalitatiivisia haastatteluita kuudelle Verohallinnon arvonlisäveroasiantuntijalle. Haastattelut on litteroitu ja tämän datan perusteella on suoritettu teorialähtöinen aineistoanalyysi. Haastattelut on suoritettu anonyymisti ja haastateltavien vastaukset eivät kuvasta Verohallinnon linjausta asiaan liittyen. Tutkielman tulokset perustuvat sekä teoriapohjaan että asiantuntijahaastatteluihin. Tutkimuksessa selvisi, että arvonlisäverolla on välillisenä kulutusverona merkittävä potentiaali vaikuttaa kuluttajien hintoihin ja siten kulutustottumuksiin (Tikkanen et al., 2018). Tätä potentiaalia kuitenkin rajoittaa verokantojen muutosten asymmetrinen vaikutus kuluttajahintoihin, arvonlisäverodirektiivin (2006/112/EC) liitteen III asettamat reunaehdot, sekä mahdollinen hallinnollisten kustannusten lisääntyminen verokantojen muutosvaiheessa. Eriävien verokantojen on myös epäilty olevan ristiriidassa arvonlisäverojärjestelmän neutraaliusperiaatteen kanssa. (Mirrlees et al., 2011.) Hintavaikutuksen on todettu olevan heikompi verokantoja alennettaessa kuin niitä nostettaessa sekä listattuihin vero- ja hintamuutoksiin perustuvassa tutkimuksessa (Benzarti et al., 2020) että Suomessa vuosina 2007–2011 suoritetussa arvonlisäveron alentamiskokeilussa. 2020-luvun ympäristömielisemmät asenteet sekä mahdollinen direktiivin liitteen III poistaminen Komission vuonna 2019 ehdottaman muutoksen myötä antavat kuitenkin aihetta arvonlisäverokantojen alentamiskokeilun uusimiselle. Tutkielmaa voitaisiinkin käyttää lähtökohtana korjauspalveluiden alennettujen arvonlisäverokantojen hintavaikutusten tarkemmalla tutkimiselle yritysperspektiivistä.

Este TFM desarrolla un plan de marketing digital anual de una Administración Pública, el Gobierno Vasco, con el objetivo principal de realizar trámites online en la sede electrónica, frente a un modo presencial. Para ello, se va a realizar una presentación con una breve descripción del negocio del Gobierno Vasco y su modelo, un análisis interno y externo de situación y un diagnóstico del diagnóstico mediante un diagrama representando sus debilidades, amenazas, fortalezas y oportunidades (diagrama DAFO). El público objetivo está centrado geográficamente en el País Vasco, y va a realizar trámites con el Gobierno Vasco como solicitud de ayudas, pago de multas o inscripciones a oposiciones. La legislación obliga a las empresas a realizar estos trámites de forma digital y da la opción a las personas físicas a que por lo menos lo puedan realizar de forma digital. Se van a definir una serie de acciones para ayudar a los usuarios en este proceso de conversión. Para ello se van a definir una serie de acciones para llegar al objetivo general y objetivos específicos SMART. Los ingresos de las Administraciones Públicas en su mayoría corresponden a los impuestos, que junto a los gastos nos permitirán definir el presupuesto del plan de marketing anual. Se definirá un cronograma para llevar a cabo las acciones planteadas para la consecución de los objetivos. Finalmente, se realizará un seguimiento de cada una de las acciones con un cálculo mensual y un ajuste de las desviaciones. Este plan de marketing pretende ser la base para la aplicación en otras Administraciones públicas u Organismos Autónomos. ; This Master's Dissertation develops an annual digital marketing plan for a Public Administration, the Basque Government, with the main objective of carrying out online procedures at the electronic headquarters, compared to a face-to-face mode. To do this, a presentation will be made with a brief description of the Basque Government business and its model, an internal and external analysis of the situation and a diagnosis of the diagnosis through a diagram representing its weaknesses, threats, strengths and opportunities (SWOT diagram). The target audience is geographically centered in the Basque Country and will carry out procedures with the Basque Government such as requesting aid, paying fines or registering for competitions. Legislation obliges companies to carry out these procedures digitally and gives individuals the option to at least carry them out digitally. A series of actions will be defined to help users in this conversion process. For this, a series of actions will be defined to reach the general objective and specific SMART objectives. The income of the Public Administrations mostly corresponds to taxes, which together with expenses will allow us to define the budget for the annual marketing plan. A schedule will be defined to carry out the actions proposed to achieve the objectives. Finally, each of the actions will be monitored with a monthly calculation and an adjustment for deviations. This marketing plan is intended to be the basis for application in other public administrations or autonomous bodies. ; Aquest TFM desenvolupa un pla de màrqueting digital anual d'una administració pública, el Govern Basc, amb l'objectiu principal de realitzar tràmits online a la seu electrònica, davant d'un mode presencial. Per a això, es va a realitzar una presentació amb una breu descripció de l'negoci de Govern Basc i el seu model, una anàlisi intern i extern de situació i un diagnòstic de la diagnosi mitjançant un diagrama representant les seves debilitats, amenaces, fortaleses i oportunitats (diagrama DAFO) . El públic objectiu està centrat geogràficament al País Basc, i va a realitzar tràmits amb el Govern Basc com a sol·licitud d'ajuts, pagament de multes o inscripcions a oposicions. La legislació obliga les empreses a realitzar aquests tràmits de forma digital i dóna l'opció a les persones físiques a que almenys el puguin realitzar de forma digital. Es van a definir una sèrie d'accions per ajudar els usuaris en aquest procés de conversió. Per a això es van a definir una sèrie d'accions per arribar a l'objectiu general i objectius específics SMART. Els ingressos de les administracions públiques en la seva majoria corresponen als impostos, que juntament a les despeses ens permetran definir el pressupost de el pla de màrqueting anual. Es definirà un cronograma per a dur a terme les accions plantejades per a la consecució dels objectius. Finalment, es realitzarà un seguiment de cadascuna de les accions amb un càlcul mensual i un ajust de les desviacions. Aquest pla de màrqueting pretén ser la base per a l'aplicació en altres administracions públiques o organismes autònoms.

As almost the whole world is currently living in the waves of the most dramatic global public health emergency of our time and the consequent economic, social and human crisis touching all key dimensions of our lives, there is a historic and real opportunity to encourage a transformative resilience and a new directionality for the path of structural change of our economies and societies (Di Tommaso, 2020), in order to pursue the goal of human flourishing and shared prosperity for all (UN, 2015). In particular, the Covid19 pandemic seems offering an opportunity not simply to appreciate the constructive role of public action to keep all people, households and businesses afloat (UN, 2020), but rather more profoundly to rethink and propose a new and different framing to structure government intervention properly to serve the public interest and guide societal development on the desirable path. In this regard, industrial policy can be considered a central pillar of the recovery strategies, in light also of the momentum gained in the academic and policy-making debate (Cimoli et al., 2009; Bailey et al., 2015; Aiginger and Rodrik, 2020; Chang and Andreoni, 2020; Di Tommaso et al., 2020; Oqubay et al., 2020) about its role in, on the one side, dealing with the prolonged international crisis and the ensuing Great Recession in Western countries and, on the other side, leading the process of industrialization, economic growth and poverty reduction in several emerging countries. Such reliance on industrial policy lies also in the growing appreciation of its relevance and pertinence to promote and govern a desired structural change of the economy (Bianchi and Labory, 2006, 2011; Chang, 1994; Di Tommaso et al., 2013, Stiglitz and Lin, 2013), by reshaping the industrial structure and the organisational configurations of the production systems, thus setting the economy towards a specific path of structural transformation. All in all, industrial policy is increasingly conceived as a vehicle to achieve broader societal goals of nations or regions (Di Tommaso and Schweitzer, 2013) for the sake of long-run collective interest (Aiginger and Rodrik, 2020), placing on centre stage the societal development vision underlying its design and implementation and the sustainability of structural change (Di Tommaso et al., 2020). Despite these premises, two gaps still appear to affect the current debate on industrial policy. Firstly, while new analytical frameworks and empirical analysis have been advanced to link industrial policy to ecological parameters, the ones focusing on a more integrated notion of sustainable human development do not seem to have yet reached the same level of sophistication and comprehensive coverage. Secondly, the theoretical foundations of industrial policies are not fully able to capture and explain the variety of real government intervention models on production dynamics driven by societal goals at national and local level. Thus, there is wide and increasing dissatisfaction with the relationship between theory and practice on industrial policy, due in particular the inability of established theory to go beyond the simple correction of certain market failures in explaining the reason for a wide range of interventions of our present. What is still needed is a holistic policy-making approach able to design robust industrial policy for the simultaneous expansion of collective productive capabilities, creation of good quality jobs and socially sustainable structural change, both at national and local level. Taking together these gaps in the long-lasting literature on industrial policy, the general objective of this collection of papers is to explore why and how national and local governments can shape the future of their societies by promoting industrial policy (within the boundaries of their spheres of intervention) able to simultaneously favour a structural transformation of their economy and increase social progress and collective well-being. In particular, this collection of papers deals with three specific research questions: First, what is the theoretical nexus between the debate on industrial policy and its effects in terms of sustainable human development? Second, how can we measure national development performances keeping into account an integrated notion of the sustainability? Third, how can industrial policy be designed and implemented by national and local governments as a leverage to steer the structural change of the economy and the society? All in all, providing preliminary answers to these research questions should be conceived as an impulse to rethinking the theoretical foundations of industrial policy, as well as its design and implementation processes, for a new role in the Covid19 era. In order to deal with these questions, the research design underlying this collection of papers primarily combines a strong focus on theoretical advancements and new analytical frameworks with a case-study design, leveraging on the mutual engagement between theory and practice of industrial policy keeping and them tied to each other according to real-world conditions.

Mestrado Bolonha em Finanças ; Considering myself a travel passionate, I was fortunate to have the opportunity to travel throughout the world over the years, provided by my parents. Alongside with the Air Travel segment, the Hotel Industry, integrated into the Food and Beverage Industry was always present. Therefore, when presented with the industry options, the Hospitality Industry was my first choice. Wyndham Hotels & Resorts was the selected company to perform my Master Final Work (MFW) under the research report format recommended by the CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) Institute. Under the ticket WH, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts operates in the Hotel Industry and is present in 95 countries with nearly 790,000 rooms in 2020YE. It is considered the biggest hotel franchiser company by number of branded hotels and the fourth largest hotel group by the number of rooms in the world. The recommendation for 2022YE is BUY, with a target price of $93.89/share, using the WACC Method and implying a 29.15% upside potential from August 31st, 2021, closing price of $72.70/share. Due to the industry volatility and its high dependence on macroeconomic indicators, a High-Risk classification approach was chosen for the valuation. To complement the valuation, other methods were calculated as the Flow to Equity, the Adjusted Present Value (APV), and a market-based valuation based on a selection of comparable companies. The uncertainty in the industry primarily cause by COVID-19 explains the existing mispricing present in the company share price. The evolution of COVID-19 and the future governmental policies concerning travel restrictions, lockdowns can influence and change the recommendation. This project is structured to enhance the investor's understanding of the entity, the industry where it is integrated, the recommendations and valuation methods used, and the investment risks associated. It starts with the company business description, followed by their type of governance and how ESG is approached. Then, an Industry and competitive position analysis is performed, following a top-down approach. Moreover, the recommendation is set alongside with the methods used, the main forecast assumptions and ratio analysis. Finally, the investment risks were assessed, along with the recommendation price sensitivity through the Monte Carlo Simulation and the sensitivity analysis. All the public information used to perform this Equity Research was disclosed and available as of 2021, August 31st. ; Sendo uma "Amante de Viagens", ao longo da minha vida tive o privilégio de me terem sido proporcionadas pelos meus pais, diversas atividades de lazer pelo mundo. A indústria hoteleira, juntamente com a de aviação, restauração, cultura entre outras, estiveram desde cedo presente na minha vida, levando a que, aquando da escolha da indústria para a realização do Master Final Work, a indústria hoteleira fosse a minha primeira opção. O grupo Wyndham Hotels & Resorts foi o escolhido para a realização do MFW. Todo este projeto foi elaborado com base no research report recomendado pelo CFA Institute. Integrado na indústria hoteleira Wyndham está presente em 95 países e, com quase 800,000 quartos, foi considerado em 2020 o maior franchiser em número de hotéis e o Quarto em número de quartos no mundo. Após a execução da avaliação da empresa, utilizando diversos modelos como os DCF Models e a Market-Based Valuation, comprar é a recomendação, com um preço alvo de $93.89 por ação, implicando uma valorização de 29.15% relativamente ao preço de fecho considerado de $72.70/ação, à data de dia 31 de agosto de 2021. Sendo a indústria hoteleira uma indústria cíclica e dependente de indicadores macroeconómicos, foi considerada a classificação risco elevado para este investimento. Uma das eventuais justificações para diferença verificada entre o preço de fecho e a recomendação feita, baseia-se na incerteza da indústria causada pela atual situação pandémica. A evolução da COVID-19 e as eventuais medidas tomadas pelos governos em matéria de restrições a deslocações, confinamento e obrigatoriedade de testagem poderão influenciar e mudar a recomendação anteriormente feita. Este projeto foi estruturado com o objetivo de dar ao investidor uma análise detalhada da empresa, da indústria onde está inserida, uma recomendação de investimento juntamente com a descrição dos métodos utilizados e os principais riscos associados ao mesmo. Inicialmente é feita a descrição da empresa, incluindo o tipo de governance e as metas de sustentabilidade definidas. De seguida é realizada uma análise da indústria onde a empresa está inserida, utilizando a top-down approach. Por fim é apresentada a recomendação de investimento, os métodos de avaliação e princípios utilizados no forecast, e os riscos de investimentos associados, juntamente com uma análise de sensibilidade ao Price Target através da Monte Carlo Simulation e Sensitivity Analysis. Toda a informação pública utilizada na elaboração do MFW foi divulgada até ao dia 31 de agosto de 2021. Toda a informação divulgada à posteriori não foi considerada. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion