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학위논문(박사)--서울대학교 대학원 :행정대학원 행정학과,2020. 2. 이승종. ; The purpose of this study is to identify the effect of resident participatory system on the performance of local government. Specifically, this study empirically analyzes how the quantitative and qualitative levels of the resident participation system influenced the democratic performance of local governments. The involvement of residents in the policy process of local government is an essential element for decentralization and actual operation of local autonomy, which is the complementary means of representative democracy. Resident participation plays a role in improving the practical problem-solving ability by preventing local government policies from violating reality. It is also known that civic involvement in the policy process plays a positive role in improving the responsiveness and effectiveness of administration. Therefore, local governments consider various measures to promote participation of residents. There are many ways to promote participation. Among them, the institutional introduction and continuous operation of the means of involvement of the residents has a positive effect on the invigoration of the involvement of the residents, as it provides the basis for the participation of the residents and broadens the scope of participation. In addition, the resident participation system can serve as a mechanism for maintaining and supporting appropriate resident participation in the policy process. Therefore, institutionalization of participation in local government is meaningful, and this study deals with civic involvement system based on such discussion. If so, is it good to have a lot of participation systems in the policy process at the basic level of local government? In reviewing previous studies, the introduction of a new resident participation system has the effect of activating resident participation or enhancing government performance. Therefore, it emphasizes the necessity of introduction to local governments that have not yet introduced the participatory system, and suggests methods for successful operation of the participant system. Previous studies have shown that the effects after the introduction of the new resident participation system or the qualitative nature of the participation system have a positive effect on the activation of resident participation and government performance. Point out that this will be a helpful option in terms of promoting participation or improving government performance. Yet another preliminary study suggests that the essential reason for local governments to introduce participatory participation systems may not be the expansion of participatory participation or the improvement of government performance. In other words, it is a formal means to show that local government officials are at work, or as a means of demonstrating that they are not falling behind in competition with other local governments. In such cases, the introduction of the resident participation system may have a negative impact on the welfare or government performance. Why is it important to measure government performance at the level of local government, and why do we consider the resident participation system as a major influencer of local government performance in this study? In general, government performance means making policy decisions that respond to citizens' policy needs and implementing them efficiently. Participation through the participatory system as a formal channel of participation not only guarantees the continuity of policy process participation, but can also reflect democratic, transparent, and responsive policies and public services because it can reflect diverse interests and communication. Therefore, the resident participation system is a channel and a means to guarantee continuous and stable resident participation. Most of the existing studies evaluate that participatory participation system acts as a catalyst for local autonomy and is justified in terms of improving government performance. Nevertheless, some studies question the effectiveness of the resident participation system, including the fact that the policy reflection rate through the resident participation system remains low at the local government's policy process and the effectiveness of the resident participation system is low. In addition, some previous studies have cited the inability to accurately measure the effect of citizen participation through resident participation system. In other words, it was difficult to determine whether the resident participation system directly influenced the government performance improvement or whether the resident participation system affected the society and the government performance improved as a result. However, it is clear that the purpose of the resident participation system is to enhance the democratic outcomes of local governments and ultimately improve the quality of life of residents. This fact is more evident when examining the Basic Ordinances on Participation of Residents, which are established by Ordinance by some local governments, which states that the purpose of the citizen participation is to promote administrative transparency and responsiveness. In other words, the purpose of the resident participation system is to improve the democratic performance of local governments. If so, it would be necessary to take a step further from the existing studies and use variables that can measure how transparent, democratic and responsive the administration has been due to the operation of the actual participatory system. Based on the above discussion, this study measured the quantitative level of the resident participation system introduced from 2005 to 2017 when the actual operation of the resident participation system was confirmed for 226 local governments in 2019. Next, the quality of the participation system was measured by categorizing the individual participation system based on the scope and intensity of participation. Type III systems are the ones with the highest intensity of delegation with the participation of the general population among the total residents participation system. Finally, the democratic achievements of local governments were divided into transparency, responsiveness and effectiveness of each basic local government. Transparency of local governments was measured by the Comprehensive Integrity Index, and responsiveness was measured by the total number of complaints handled per government official, and by the share of grievances and other complaints. Effectiveness was measured by the ratio of social welfare budget to the total budget and the quality of life index of residents. As a method of analysis, fixed effect panel analysis was used. The summary of the analysis is as follows. First, the increase in the quantitative level of the resident participation system for the local government at the basic level has a significant negative effect on the transparency of administration, while the increase in the share of the Type III resident participation system has a positive effect on the transparency of the administration. It was also confirmed that the transparency of administration did not decrease as the total number of operation of the resident participation system increased, but that the slope converged to zero when the quantitative level of the participation system reached a certain level. On the other hand, in the local governments at the County level, it was found that when the resident participation system fell short of the average number of operations, it had a negative effect on the transparency of the administration, while exceeding the average number of operations had a positively significant effect on the transparency of the administration. Second, the increase in the quantitative level of the resident participation system has a negative effect on administrative responsiveness, and the increase in the quality level has no statistically significant effect. However, the quantitatively appropriate level of the resident participation system, which improves administrative responsiveness, was confirmed in the case of the District level of local government. Although the total number of operation of the participatory system reached a certain level, it had a negative effect on administrative responsiveness, but beyond that level, it was found to have a positive and significant effect on responsiveness. Third, the increase in the quantitative level of the resident participation system has a positive effect on the effectiveness of administration. As the total number of operation of the resident participation system increased, both the proportion of social welfare budget and the quality of life of the residents increased. However, the statistical significance of the quantitative and qualitatively appropriate levels of the resident participation system to enhance the effectiveness of administration could not be confirmed. Based on this, the implications of this study are as follows. As discussed above, most existing studies analyze the effect of each participatory system implemented by local governments or their impact on the performance of specific sectors of local governments, or the effects of implementing participatory systems on individual municipalities. In addition, existing researches are only on comparative studies between local governments operating specific participatory systems and on the possibility of revitalization of participatory systems. In other words, there is a limitation in that not only the collective effects of various participation systems used in local government policy processes but also the effects of accumulated participation systems over time are not considered. In order to overcome these limitations, this study approached the resident participation system at the collective level and focused on the direct effect of the institutional factor on the government performance. Theoretical implications of this study are as follows. First, this study expanded the spatial and temporal scope of analysis to overcome the limitations of the analytical objects of previous studies. Second, the participation system was analyzed from various angles. Various types of typology of resident participation system suggested in the previous study were summarized, and it was confirmed that the effect on government performance also appeared differently according to the kind of participatory system. Third, this study attempted to measure government performance on a democratic level. Since the ultimate goal of the resident participation system is to realize local autonomy and to promote democracy, this paper analyzes the transparency, responsiveness, and effectiveness of administration focusing on the democratic dimension of government performance. Fourth, this study tried to make the analysis accurate by conducting fixed effect panel analysis that can control individual specificity such as endogenous local government's effect and time effect which was not controllable in the cross-sectional analysis used in the existing research. In terms of policy, the implications of this study are as follows. First, this study considered the quantitative and qualitative level of the resident participation system as a major influencing factor of government performance. Increasing the quantitative and qualitative levels of the resident participation system had a significant influence on the democratic performance of local governments. In particular, it was found that in order for the resident participation system to have its original effect, it must be an institution with an interactive attribute including a means for communicating with the government and delegating authority to the residents. Second, this study diagnosed the quantitative and qualitative levels of the local participation system, which is currently operated by local governments, and suggested the basis for the selection and concentration of future participation system. Third, although the administrative implications of the research on the performance of local governments are considerable, empirical research is insufficient. This seems to be because the performance of local governments is not only objectively measurable, but also limited in obtaining usable variables. Therefore, this study limited government performance to democratic performance, and analyzed total democratic performance of local government using various variables that can be measured. The limitations of this study are as follows. First, since the quantitative and qualitative levels of the resident participation system were measured at the collective level, the individual characteristics of each resident participation system could not be reflected in depth in measuring the quality level. Next, due to the limitations of the data available to local governments at the basic level, this study could only reflect the use of subjective indicators to measure democratic government performance such as 'quality of life of residents' in Seoul Metropolitan Government. In this regard, the results and methods of this study are based, and it will be necessary to approach in various ways how and in what circumstances the participation system has a significant effect on government performance. ; 본 연구의 목적은 주민참여제도가 지방정부의 성과에 미치는 영향력을 확인하는 것이다. 구체적으로는 지방정부가 도입하여 현재 시행 중인 주민참여제도의 양적 및 질적 수준이 지방정부의 민주적 성과에 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지 실증적으로 분석하고자 한다. 지방정부의 정책과정에서 주민의 참여는 대의민주주의의 보완적 수단인 동시에 지방자치제도 도입의 궁극적 목적이라고 할 수 있는 지방분권과 주민자치의 실질적 작동을 위한 필수적 요소이다. 주민참여는 지방정부의 정책이 현실로부터 유리되는 것을 방지하여 실질적인 문제해결 능력을 향상시키는 역할을 한다. 또한, 정책과정에서 주민참여는 행정의 대응성과 효과성을 향상시키는 긍정적 역할을 한다고 알려져 있다. 그러므로 지방정부는 주민참여를 활성화하기 위한 여러 방안을 고민한다. 주민참여를 활성화하는 방안에는 여러 가지가 있다. 그중에서도 주민참여 수단의 제도적 도입과 지속적 운영은 주민참여가 발생할 수 있는 기반을 마련해주고 참여의 폭을 넓혀주는 역할을 하므로 주민참여 활성화에 긍정적 영향을 미친다. 더불어 주민참여제도는 정책과정에서 적절한 주민참여를 유지하고 지원할 수 있는 기제의 역할을 할 수 있다. 그러므로 지방정부 내 주민참여의 제도화는 의미가 있으며, 본 연구는 이러한 논의를 바탕으로 주민참여제도를 다루고 있다. 그렇다면 다양한 특성을 가진 주민참여제도들이 많이 시행되면 좋은 것일까? 선행연구를 검토해보면 새로운 주민참여제도의 도입은 주민참여를 활성화하거나 정부성과를 높이는 효과를 가져오기 때문에, 아직 도입이 안 된 지방정부에는 도입의 필요성을 강조하고, 시행 중인 지방정부에는 참여제도의 실질적 운영을 위한 방법을 제시한다. 그러므로 새로운 주민참여제도를 도입한 이후의 효과 또는 참여제도의 속성이 주민참여의 활성화 혹은 정부성과에 긍정적으로 유의미한 영향을 주었다는 기존의 연구결과들은 지방정부가 앞으로 더 많은 주민참여제도를 도입하는 것이 주민참여의 활성화나 정부성과 제고 측면에서도 도움이 되는 선택이 될 것을 말해준다. 하지만 또 다른 선행연구에 의하면, 지방정부가 주민참여제도를 도입하는 이유가 주민참여의 확대나 정부성과의 제고에 있다는 것은 부차적인 문제일 뿐이라고 주장한다. 그뿐만 아니라 지방정부의 관료가 일하고 있다는 것을 보여주기 위한 형식적 방법, 다른 지방정부와의 경쟁에서 뒤처지지 않고 있다는 것을 증명하는 하나의 수단으로 주민참여제도를 도입, 운영하기도 한다는 것이다. 이럴 때 주민참여제도의 도입은 오히려 주민 복리 또는 정부성과에 부정적 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 한편, 지방정부 수준에서 정부성과를 측정하는 것은 왜 중요하며, 본 연구에서 지방정부 성과의 주요 영향요인으로 주민참여제도를 고려하는 이유는 무엇인가? 일반적으로 정부성과는 시민의 정책적 요구에 반응하는 정책 결정을 하고, 이를 효율적으로 집행하는 것을 의미한다. 참여의 공식적 통로인 주민참여제도를 통한 주민참여는 정책과정 참여의 지속성을 보장할 뿐 아니라 다양한 이해관계와 의사소통을 반영할 수 있으므로 민주적이고 투명하며, 대응성 높은 정책과 공공서비스를 산출할 수 있도록 유도하는 역할을 할 수 있다. 다시 말해 주민참여를 지속적이고 안정적으로 보장할 수 있는 통로이자 수단이 바로 주민참여제도인 것이다. 대부분의 기존연구들은 주민참여제도가 지방자치의 촉매제 역할을 하며, 정부성과 제고 측면에서도 정당성이 높다고 평가한다. 그런데도 일부 연구들은 실제 지방정부의 정책과정에서 주민참여제도를 통한 정책반영비율은 낮은 수준에 머물러 있고, 주민의 참여제도에 대한 효능감도 떨어지는 등 주민참여제도의 효과성에 의문을 제기한다. 또한, 주민참여제도를 통한 주민참여의 효과를 정확히 측정할 수 없기도 하거니와 주민참여제도가 정부성과 제고에 직접적 영향을 미친 것인지, 주민참여제도를 통해 주민참여가 활성화됨으로써 사회에 영향을 미치고 결과적으로 정부성과가 향상된 것인지 판단하는 데 어려움이 있었다. 그러나 확실한 점은 주민참여제도의 목적이 지방정부의 민주적 성과를 제고하여 최종적으로는 주민의 삶의 질 향상에 있다는 사실이다. 이러한 사실은 일부 지방정부가 조례로 제정한 「주민참여에 관한 기본조례」를 살펴보면 더욱 확실히 나타나는데, 주민참여가 행정의 투명성과 대응성을 증진하고자 하는 목적이 있음을 명시하고 있다. 즉, 주민참여제도의 목적은 지방정부의 민주성 성과의 향상인 것이다. 그렇다면 기존연구에서 확인한 바와 같이 주민참여제도가 가지는 효과의 측정을 재정이나 예산자료를 활용하여 양적으로 측정한 연구에서 한 걸음 더 나아가 실제 주민참여제도 운영으로 인해 얼마나 행정이 투명하고 민주적이며 대응적으로 변화했는지를 측정할 수 있는 변수를 활용해야 할 필요가 있을 것이다. 이상의 논의를 바탕으로 본 연구는 2019년 기준 226개 기초단위의 지방정부를 대상으로 주민참여제도의 실제 운영이 확인되는 2005년부터 2017년까지 도입된 주민참여제도의 양적 수준을 측정하였다. 더불어 개별 주민참여제도를 참여의 범위와 강도를 기준으로 유형화하여 시행 중인 전체 주민참여제도 중 일반적 주민이 참여하면서, 권한위임의 강도가 가장 큰 참여제도들(제 Ⅲ형 제도)이 전체 시행 중인 주민참여제도에서 차지하는 비중을 주민참여의 질적 수준으로 측정하였다. 다음으로 지방정부의 민주적 성과를 각 기초 지방정부의 투명성, 대응성, 효과성으로 구분하고 종합청렴도지수, 공무원 1인당 전체 민원처리 건수, 고충 민원과 기타민원의 합이 전체 민원에서 차지하는 비중, 전체 예산대비 사회복지예산의 비중, 주민의 삶의 질 지수로 측정하였다. 분석방법은 고정효과 패널 분석을 활용하였다. 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 기초단위의 지방정부 전체를 대상으로 주민참여제도의 양적 수준의 증가는 평균적으로 행정의 투명성에 부정적으로 유의미한 영향을 미치지만, 제 Ⅲ형 주민참여제도 비중의 증가는 행정의 투명성에 긍정적으로 유의미한 영향을 미쳤다. 또한, 주민참여제도의 총 운영 건수가 증가할수록 행정의 투명성이 지속해서 감소하는 것이 아니라, 참여제도의 양적 수준이 일정 수준에 이르면 그 기울기가 0에 수렴함을 확인하였다. 한편, 군 단위의 지방정부에서는 주민참여제도가 평균 운영 건수에 미치지 못할 때는 행정의 투명성에 부정적 영향을 미치지만, 평균 운영 건수를 넘어서면 오히려 행정의 투명성에 긍정적으로 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 둘째, 주민참여제도의 양적 수준의 증가는 행정의 대응성에 부정적으로 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며, 질적 수준의 증가는 통계적으로 유의미한 영향력을 가지지 못하는 것으로 확인되었다. 그러나 구 단위 지방정부의 경우 행정의 대응성을 제고하는 주민참여제도의 양적 적정 수준이 확인되었다. 참여제도 총 운영 건수가 일정 수준에 이르기까지는 행정의 대응성에 부정적 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났지만, 그 수준을 넘어서면 대응성에 긍정적으로 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 셋째, 주민참여제도의 양적 수준의 증가는 행정의 효과성에 긍정적으로 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 주민참여제도의 총 운영 건수가 증가할수록 전체 대비 사회복지예산의 비중과 주민의 삶의 질 모두 증가하는 것을 확인하였다. 그러나 행정의 효과성을 제고하는 주민참여제도의 양적 및 질적 적정 수준의 통계적 유의미성은 확인할 수 없었다. 이를 바탕으로 본 연구의 함의를 제시하면 다음과 같다. 앞서 논의한 바와 같이 대부분의 기존연구들은 지방정부에서 시행하는 각각의 주민참여제도가 가지는 효과 또는 지방정부의 특정 부문의 성과에 미치는 영향력을 분석하거나, 개별 지방자치단체를 사례로 참여제도 시행의 효과 분석, 특정 참여제도를 운영 중인 지방정부 간 비교연구, 참여제도의 활성화 가능성에 관한 연구에 머무르고 있다. 다시 말해, 지방정부 정책과정에서 활용되는 다양한 주민참여제도의 집합적 효과뿐 아니라 시간이 흐름에 따라 누적된 참여제도가 미치는 효과 또한 고려하지 못했다는 한계가 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 한계를 극복하고자 집합적 수준에서 주민참여제도에 접근하였고, 주민참여제도라는 제도적 요인이 정부성과에 가지는 직접적 효과에 주목하였다. 구체적으로 본 연구의 함의를 이론적 측면에서 살펴보면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 본 연구는 선행연구가 가진 분석대상의 한계를 극복하기 위해 분석의 공간적, 시간적 범위를 확장하였다. 둘째, 주민참여제도를 다양한 각도에서 분석하였다. 먼저, 선행연구에서 제시한 주민참여제도의 다양한 유형화 방식을 종합적으로 정리하였으며, 어떤 속성을 가진 참여제도인지에 따라서 정부성과에 미치는 효과 또한 차별적으로 나타난다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 셋째, 정부성과를 민주적 차원에서 측정해보고자 하였다. 주민참여제도가 가지는 궁극적 목적이 바로 지방자치의 실현과 민주주의의 제고에 있으므로 정부성과의 민주적 차원에 초점을 두어 행정의 투명성, 대응성, 효과성을 분석하였다. 넷째, 본 연구는 기존연구에서 활용한 횡단면 분석에서 통제 불가능했던 개별 지방정부 고유의 효과 및 시간 효과와 같은 개별특이성을 모두 통제 가능한 고정효과 패널 분석을 시행함으로써 분석의 정확성을 꾀하고자 노력하였다. 다음으로 정책적 측면에서 본 연구의 함의는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 본 연구는 정부성과의 주요 영향요인으로서 주민참여제도의 양적, 질적 수준을 고려하였다. 주민참여제도의 양적, 질적 수준의 증가는 지방정부의 민주적 성과에 유의미한 영향력을 미치는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 특히 주민참여제도를 설계할 때 제도가 본래의 효과를 가지기 위해서는 정부와 주민이 상호작용할 수 있고, 주민에게 권한을 위임할 수 있는 수단이 포함된 교호적 성격을 가진 제도여야 한다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 둘째, 기초 지방정부 수준에서 개별 주민참여제도가 가지는 속성이 민주적 정부성과에 영향을 줄 수 있음을 확인한 바와 같이 지방정부가 현재 시행 중인 주민참여제도 전반의 양적 및 질적 수준을 진단하여 향후 주민참여제도의 선택과 집중에 도움이 될 수 있는 근거를 제시하였다. 셋째, 지방정부 성과에 관한 연구가 가지는 행정학적 함의는 상당한데도 실증연구는 부족한 실정이다. 이것은 지방정부의 성과가 객관적으로 측정하기 어려울 뿐 아니라 활용할 수 있는 변수를 획득함에서도 한계가 있기 때문으로 보인다. 그래서 본 연구는 정부성과를 민주적 성과로 한정하였고, 이를 측정할 수 있는 다양한 변수를 활용하여 지방정부의 민주적 성과를 총체적으로 분석하였다. 한편, 본 연구의 한계는 다음과 같다. 먼저, 주민참여제도의 양적 및 질적 수준을 집합적 수준에서 측정하였기 때문에 질적 수준의 측정에 있어 각각의 주민참여제도가 가지는 개별적 속성을 심층적으로 반영하지 못했다. 다음으로 본 연구는 기초단위의 지방정부에서 활용 가능한 데이터의 한계로 인해 '주민의 삶의 질'과 같은 민주적 정부성과를 측정하는 주관적 지표 활용을 서울특별시 자치구를 대상으로밖에 반영하지 못했다. 이러한 부분에서는 본 연구의 분석결과와 방법이 근간이 되어 향후 연구에서 주민참여제도가 어떤 상황에서 어떻게 정부성과에 유의미한 영향을 미치는지 다각도로 접근할 필요가 있을 것이다. ; 제 1 장 서 론 1 제 1 절 연구의 목적과 필요성 1 제 2 절 연구의 대상과 범위 6 제 3 절 연구의 방법 9 제 2 장 이론적 논의 10 제 1 절 주민참여와 주민참여제도 10 1. 시민참여와 주민참여 10 1) 시민참여의 개념 10 2) 주민참여: 시민참여와의 구분 11 2. 주민참여의 제도화 필요성 13 3. 주민참여제도 도입배경 및 영향요인 15 1) 외부적 결정요인 16 2) 내부적 결정요인 18 3) 시간요인 19 4) 소결 19 4. 다양한 형태의 주민참여제도 20 1) 지방자치법상 주민참여제도 20 2) 그 외의 주민참여제도 24 5. 주민참여제도의 유형화 27 1) 참여속성에 따른 유형화 27 2) 정책과정에 따른 유형화 30 제 2 절 정부성과 34 1. 정부성과의 개념 34 1) 정부성과의 정의 34 2) 정부성과 측정지표의 설정 35 3) 정부성과의 측정과 관련 선행연구 38 2. 정부성과의 영향요인 47 1) 정치제도적 요인 48 2) 사회문화적 요인 49 3) 사회경제적 요인 51 4) 지방정부규모 요인 51 제 3 절 주민참여제도와 지방정부 성과의 관계 54 1. 주민참여제도와 정부성과에 관한 이론적 논의 54 2. 주민참여제도와 정부성과에 관한 선행연구 59 3. 선행연구의 한계와 본 연구의 필요성 62 제 3 장 연구 설계 66 제 1 절 연구가설 및 분석 모형 66 1. 연구문제의 제기 66 2. 연구가설의 설정 68 1) 주민참여제도의 양적 수준과 지방정부의 성과에 관한 가설 68 2) 주민참여제도의 질적 수준과 지방정부의 성과에 관한 가설 71 3) 지방정부 성과에 영향을 미치는 참여제도 적정 수준의 탐색 73 4) 보론: 주민참여제도와 지방정부의 민주적 성과 간 논리 관계 76 3. 연구의 분석 틀 78 4. 분석모형 및 자료 78 제 2 절 변수의 선정과 측정 80 1. 종속변수- 지방정부의 민주적 성과 80 2. 독립변수- 주민참여제도의 참여수준 89 1) 주민참여제도의 양적 수준의 측정 89 (1) 주민참여제도 목록의 작성 89 (2) 본 연구의 주민참여제도의 양적 수준의 측정과 판단기준 92 (3) 측정자료의 획득방식 및 조정과정 98 2) 주민참여제도의 질적 수준의 측정 100 (1) 주민참여제도 질적 수준 측정을 위한 유형화 기준 100 (2) 본 연구의 주민참여제도의 질적 수준의 유형화 103 3. 통제변수 105 제 4 장 연구분석 결과 111 제 1 절 주요 변수의 기초통계 111 1. 패널 분석에 포함된 연구대상의 범위 축소에 대한 설명 111 2. 주요 변수의 기술통계량 113 3. 시계열 추이 분석 116 4. 연속변수 간 상관관계 분석 126 제 2 절 실증분석 결과 129 1. 주민참여제도의 수준이 지방정부의 성과에 미치는 영향 129 1) 주민참여제도의 양적, 질적 수준이 투명성에 미치는 영향 129 2) 주민참여제도의 양적, 질적 수준이 대응성에 미치는 영향 136 3) 주민참여제도의 양적, 질적 수준이 효과성에 미치는 영향 140 (1) 지방정부의 효과성: 전체 대비 사회복지예산의 비중 140 (2) 지방정부의 효과성: 주민의 삶의 질 142 2. 민주적 정부성과 제고를 위한 주민참여제도의 적정 수준의 확인 151 1) 주민참여제도 적정 수준의 확인: 행정의 투명성 151 2) 주민참여제도 적정 수준의 확인: 행정의 대응성 154 3. 가설의 검증 159 제 5 장 결론 160 제 1 절 연구결과의 요약 160 제 2 절 연구의 함의 163 1. 본 연구의 이론적 함의 164 2. 본 연구의 정책적 함의 166 제 3 절 연구의 한계 및 향후 연구 방향 제시 167 [참고문헌] 170 ; Doctor

John Dewey on the Horror of Making
his Poetry Public



This April's Fools interview is a preview for 'The Return of the Theorists: Dialogues with Great Thinkers in International Relations' (ed. Ned Lebow, Peer Schouten & Hidemi Suganami), now available at Palgrave.









After
various rounds of experimentation, two youthful IR scholars (the editor-in chief of this venture and Christian Bueger) bend space-time and
access an alternate reality with the ambition to conduct an interview for Theory
Talks with John Dewey. Dewey (1859-1952) was an American thinker often associated
with a school of thought that has become known as American pragmatism. He is today
largely known for his contributions to education studies, philosophy of science,
and the theory of democracy. In this Talk, the young scholars sound out Dewey
on what thinking tools his original worldview would provide for IR—after
resolving a small embarrassment.







TT Dear Mr. Dewey. Thank you so much for your
willingness to participate in this Talk. Theory
Talks is an open-access journal that contributes to International Relations
debates by publishing interviews with cutting-edge theorists. It is not often
that Theory Talks is able to overcome
space-time limitations and conduct a Talk with a departed theorist.



I am sorry—I think I have to interrupt you there…



TT Well, all right?



Yes, yes, the fact of the matter is that I am not a
theorist and refuse to be associated with that label! To purify theory out of
experience as some distinct realm, sirs, is to contribute to a fallacy that I
have dedicated my life to combat! I am afraid that this venture of yours, of
involving me in this Theory Talks, is
stillborn.



TT Dear Professor Dewey—with all due respect, we are
running ahead of matters here a little. The reason why we invited you is exactly
for you to expound your ideas—and reservations—regarding theory, practice, and
international relations. Would you be willing to bracket your concern for a
minute? We promise to get back to it.



Well my dear sirs—it is that you insist on a
dialogue—that restless, participative and dramatic form of inquiry that leads
to so much more insight than books—and that you have travelled from far by
means that utterly fascinate me, so I will give you the benefit of the doubt.



TT Thank you. And let us from the outset emphasize
that by interviewing you for Theory Talks, we don't necessarily want to reduce
your contribution to thought to the practice of theorizing. Isn't it also
correct you have written poetry?



Now I am baffled a second time! I have never publicly
attempted my hand at the noble art of the poetic!



TT It has to be said, Mr. Dewey, that the problem of
what is and isn't public has perhaps shifted a bit since your passing away. That's
something we'd like to discuss, too, but the fact of the matter is that what
you have consistently consigned to the trashcan of your office at Columbia
University has been just as meticulously recovered by 'a janitor with a long
view'.



Oh heavens! You tell me I have been uncovered as a
versifier? What of my terrible scribbling has been uncovered you say?



TT Well, perhaps you recognize the one that starts
like:



I hardly
think I heard you call

Since
betwixt us was the wall

Of sounds
within, buzzings i' the ear

Roarings
i' the vein so closely near…



… 'That I was captured in illusion/Of outward things
said clear…' I well remember—a piece particularly deserving of oblivion. I
wrote that in the privacy of lonely office hours, thinking the world would have
the mercy not to allow a soul to lay its eyes on it!



TT We are sorry to say that besides this one, a total
of 101 poems has been recovered, and published in print—and you know, given
some advances in technology, circulation of text is highly accelerated, meaning
that one could very well say your poetry is part of the public domain.



So there I am, well half a decade after my death,
subject to the indirect effects of advances in technology interacting with the
associations I myself carelessly established between roses, summer days, and
all too promiscuous waste bins! Sirs, in the little time we have conversed, I
see the afterlife hasn't brought me any good. Hades takes on a bleaker shade…



TT Well, in reality, the future has been good to you:
you are firmly canonised as one an authentic American intellectual, and stand firmly
on a pedestal in the galleries occupied by the notables of modern international
social thought. So why don't we explore a little bit why that is, within the
specific domain of political theory? Theory
Talks actually poses the same first three questions to every interviewee,
followed by a number of questions specific to your thought. The first question
we always pose is: What, according to you, is the biggest challenge or central
debate in International Relations and what is your position vis-à-vis that
challenge/debate?



I think that while it must have been noted by other
interviewees that in fact this question is two separate questions—one about
real-world challenges and another about theoretical debates—I would be the last
to do so, and I am happy you mix concerns of theory and practice. I have always
fought against establishing such a fictional separation between seemingly distinct
domains of thought and practice. It is a dangerous fiction on top of it. The
same goes for International Relations—while I have not dedicated myself to the
study of the international as a discrete field of action, I do think that this domain
does not escape some of the general observations I have made regarding society
and its politics.



I hold that "modern society is many societies more or
less loosely connected" by all kinds of associations. As I explain in The Public and its Problems, a
fundamental challenge of modern times is that the largely technically mediated associations
that constitute societies have outstretched the social mechanisms that we had
historically developed on the human scale of the village to mitigate their
indirect effects on others. During my life, I witnessed the proliferation of
railway, telegraph, radio, steam-driven shipping, and car and weapon
industries—thoroughly extending the web of association and affectedness within
and across borders. This means action constantly reaches further. People close
by and in far-off places are suddenly confronted with situations that they have
to relate to but which are out of their control. This automatically makes them
part of interested publics, with a stake in the way these mechanisations work. Now
this perhaps seems abstract but consider: the spread of a new technology—I see
you both looking on some small device with a black mirrored screen nervously
every 5 minutes—automatically involves users as a 'stakeholder'. Your actions
are mediated by them. You become affected by their design and
configuration—over which you have little control. In that regard, you are part
of a concerned public, but you have no way to influence the politics
constitutive of these technologies.



I would say the largest challenge is to amplify
participation and to institutionalize these fleeting publics. The proliferation
of technologies and institutions as conduits for international associations has
rendered publics around the globe more inchoate, while seemingly making it
easier than ever before to influence—for good or ill—large groups through the
manipulation of these global infrastructures of the public. We sowed
infrastructures, we reap fragilities and more diffusely affected publics: each
new technological expansion of the possibility to form associations leads to
concomitant insecurities.



TT How did you arrive where you currently are in your
thinking?



I have had the sheer luck or fortune to be engaged in
the occupation of thinking; and while I am quite regular at my meals, I think
that I may say that I would rather work, and perhaps even more, play, with
ideas and with thinking than eat. I was born in the wake of the Civil War, and
in times of a profound acceleration of technology as a vehicle of social,
economic, and political development. Perhaps, as in your own times, upheaval
and change was the status quo, stability a rare exception. My studies at Johns
Hopkins with people such as Peirce had tickled an intellectual curiosity as of
yet unsatisfied. I subsequently went to the University of Chicago for a decade
in which my commitment to pragmatist philosophy consolidated. Afterwards at
Columbia, and at the New School which I founded with people such as Charles A. Beard
and Thorsten Veblen, this approach translated into a number of books. In these I
applied my pragmatist convictions to such disparate issues as education, art,
faith, logic and indeed politics, the topic of your question. For me, these are
all interdependent aspects of society. This interdependence and inseparability
of the social fabric means that skewed economic or political interests will
reverberate throughout. But I am an optimist in that I also believe in the
fundamental possibility and promise of science and democracy to curb radical
change and reroute it into desirable directions for those affected. Good things
are also woven through the social and we should amplify those to lessen the
effects of negative associations.



TT What would a student require to become a specialist
in International Relations or to see the world in a global way?



A question dear to my heart. You might know that
throughout my entire life I have striven for transforming our understanding and
practice of education. Human progress is dependent on education, and as I have
learned during my travels to Russia, reform is not to be had by revolution but
by gradual education. Education is training in reflective thinking. The quality
of democracy depends on education.



Towards the end of my life I witnessed the creation of
the United Nations. This was a clear signal to me that "the relations between
nations are taking on the properties that constitute a public, and hence call
for some measure of political organization". Having this forum implied that we
saw the end of the complete denial of political responsibility of how the
policies in one national unit affect another as we find in the doctrine of
sovereignty. That the end of this doctrine is within reach means that we
require global education which will ensure the rise of informed global publics
which can develop the tools required to respond to global challenges.



In a more substantive fashion, I would insist that
students hold on to the essential impossibility to separate out experience as
it unfolds over time. The divisions and preferences that have come to dominate
academic knowledge in its 20th century 'maturing' are for me a loss
of rooting of knowledge in experience.



TT We're sorry, but isn't the task of social sciences
to offer universal or at least objective analytical categories to make sense of
the muddle of real-world experience? What you seem to be proposing is the
opposite!



I align with Weber in lamenting the acceleration of
the differentiation of understanding in society. This has made it difficult for
your generations to address social, political and economic challenges head on
while avoiding getting lost in one of its details or facets. Isn't the economic
and the political, constantly encroaching on everyday life? In the end, this
perhaps explains my insistence on democracy and schooling as the pivots of good
society: democracy to reconstruct and defend publics, and schooling to defend
individuals against (mis)understanding the world in ways that cannot be reduced
to their own lived experience. If students could only hold on to this holistic
perspective and eschew isolating subject matters from their social contexts.



TT Throughout your 70 years of active scholarship you
have written over a thousand articles and books. One commentator of your work
suggested that your body of writing is an "elaborate spider's web, the
junctions and lineaments of which its engineer knows well and in and on which
he is able to move about with great facility. But for the outsider who seeks to
traverse or map that territory there is the constant danger of getting stuck."
Many find your work difficult to navigate—what advice would you give the
reader?



Sirs why would anyone want to engage in a quest of
mapping all of my writings? You have to understand that thought always proceeds
in relations. A web, perhaps, yes. A spider's web certainly not. A spider that
spins a web out of himself, produces a web that is orderly and elaborate, but
it is only a trap. That is the goal of pure reasoning, not mine. The scientific
method of inquiry is rather comparable to the operations of the bee who
collects material within and from the world, but attacks and modifies the
collected stuff in order to make it yield its hidden treasure. "Drop the
conception that knowledge is knowledge only when it is a disclosure and
definition of the properties of fixed and antecedent reality; interpret the aim
and test of knowing by what happens in the actual procedures of scientific
inquiry". The occasion of thinking and writing is the experience of problems
and the need to clarify and resolve them. Everything depends on the problem,
the situations and the tools available. Inquiry does not rely on a priori
elements or fixed rules. I always attempted to start my work by understanding in
which problematic situations I aimed at intervening. Philosophy and academic,
but also public life, in my time was heading in wrong directions that called
upon me to initiate inquiry to resolve issues—in media res, as it were. When I
wrote Logic, I tried to rebut
dogmatic understandings. Now it appears that I am on the verge of becoming a
dogma myself. In a sense, the most tragic scenario would be if people develop a
"Deweyan" perspective or theory. Now I am curious, what problem brought you
actually to converse with me? 



TT Well, we are here today because we have been asked
to contribute to an effort to collect the views of a number of different
theorists, who, like you, live in different space-time. Now that we are here,
could we ask you to tell us how you use the term 'inquiry'? It is one of your core
concepts and in our conversation you already frequently referred to it. It is
often difficult to understand what you mean by this term and how it provides
direction and purpose for science…



It's a simple one, provided you have not been
indoctrinated by logical positivists. You, me, all of us, frequently engage in
inquiry. There is little distinction between solving problems of everyday life
and the reasoning of the scientist or philosopher. Most often habit and routine
will give you satisfaction. Yet when these fail or give you unpleasant
experience, then reasoning begins. Without inquiry, sirs, most likely you
wouldn't have been able to speak to me today! You will have to explain later
how you bended time and space and which technology allowed you to travel through
a black hole. But Albert was right, time travel is possible! Could we converse
today without Einstein's fabulous inquiry that led him to the realization of
space-time? Until the promulgation of Einstein's restricted theory of
relativity, mass, time and motion were regarded as intrinsic properties of
ultimate fixed and independent substances. Einstein questioned this on the
basis of experimentation and an investigation of the problem of simultaneity,
that is, that from different reference frames there can never be agreement on
the simultaneity of events.



Reflection implies that something is believed in (or
disbelieved in), not on its own direct account, but through something else
which stands as witness, evidence, proof, voucher, warrant; that is, as ground
of belief. At one time, rain is actually felt or directly experienced without
any intermediary fact; at another time, we infer that it has rained from the
looks of the grass and trees, or that it is going to rain because of the
condition of the air or the state of the barometer. The fact that inquiry intervenes
in ever-shifting contexts demands us to restrain from eternal truths or absolutistic
logic. Someone believing in a truth such as "individualism", has his program
determined for him in advance. It is then not a matter of finding out the
particular thing which needs to be done and the best way, and the
circumstances, of doing it. He knows in advance the sort of thing which must be
done, just as in ancient physical philosophy the thinker knew in advance what
must happen, so that all he had to do was to supply a logical framework of
definitions and classifications.



When I say that thinking and beliefs should be
experimental, not absolutistic, I have in mind a certain logic of method. Such
a logic firstly implies that the concepts, general principles, theories and
dialectical developments which are indispensable to any systematic knowledge are
shaped and tested as tools of inquiry. Secondly, policies and proposals for
social action have to be treated as working hypotheses. They have to be subject
to constant and well-equipped observations of the consequences they entail when
acted upon and subject to flexible revision. The social sciences are primarily
an apparatus for conducting such investigations.



TT Doesn't such a form of reasoning mean we'll just
muddle through without ever reaching certainty?



Absolutely correct! Arriving at one point is the
starting point of another. Life flowers and should be understood as such; experimental
reasoning is never complete. I can imagine the surprise you must feel at sudden
unforeseen events in international political relationships when you hold on to
fixed frames of how these relationships do and ought to look. That we will never
reach certainty does not imply to give up the quest of certainty, however. We
have to continuously improve on our tools of scientific inquiry…



TT Sorry to interrupt you here. Now it sounds as if
you have a sort of methods fetish. Do you imply that everything can be solved
by the right method and all that we have to do is to refine our methods? That's
something that our colleagues running statistics and thinking that the problems
of international can be solved by algorithms argue as well.



It might be that mathematical reasoning has well
advanced since my departure, and that the importance granted to the economy and
economic thinking as the sole conditioning factor of political organisation has
only increased, but you haven't fully grasped what I mean by 'tools'. Tell your
stubbornly calculating colleagues that inquiry is embedded in a situation,
hence there cannot be a single method which would fix all kinds of problems.
Second, while I admire the skill of mathematicians, what I mean by tools goes
well beyond that. A tool can be a concept, a term, a theory, a proposal, a
course of action, anything that might matter to settle a particular situation.
A tool is however not a solution per se. It is a proposal. It must be tested
against the problematic material. It matters only in so far as it is part of a
practical activity aimed at resolving a problematic situation.  



TT You emphasize that language is instrumental and reject
the idea of a private language. You also spent quite some energy to demolish
the "picture theory" of language. These arguments form the basis of
what we call today "constructivism", yet they are mainly subscribed to the Philosophical
Investigations of the later Ludwig Wittgenstein.



Earhh, I am aware of this fellow. He is an analytical
philosopher, so develops his argument from a different background. I started to
work on the social and cultural aspects of language use from around 1916. I
don't know whether Wittgenstein actually read my work when he set out to write
Philosophical Investigations, but you are quite right, there are obvious
parallels. I think my own term of "conjoint activity" expresses pretty much the
same, perhaps less eloquently, what Wittgenstein termed language games. I am
pleased to hear, however, that the instrumental view on language, that objects
get their meanings within a language in and by conjoint community of functional
use, has become firmly established in academia. I'd have reservations about the
term, 'constructivism'. It might be useful since it reminds us of all the
construction work that the organization of politics and society entails. Indeed
I have frequently stressed that instrumentalist theory implies construction. If
constructivism doesn't mean post-mortem studies of how something has been
constructed, but is directed towards production of better futures, I might be
fine with the term. But perhaps I would prefer 'productivism'.



TT That is a plausible term, but we are afraid, the
history of science has settled on constructivism. And you are right, the tendencies
you warn us of are significantly present in our discipline.



Sirs, if you permit. I have to attend to other
obligations. I
wish you safe travels back. Make sure you pick up something from the gift shop
before you leave.

Putu Yulita Ayu Werdhaningrum D3 – Business English, Faculty of Languages and Arts, University State of Surabaya, hyoelita@yahoo.co.id Abstract UPT Aneka Industri dan Kerajinan Surabaya is a technical services unit that can carry out the promotion and development of SMEs and Human Resources through technical training in the field of management, technology, process, production, standardization, environmental, and information. UPT Aneka Industri dan Kerajinan Surabaya has the aim to improve the performance of the technical implementation of various industrial units and crafts as well as developing human resource to support the competitiveness of the global market. In support of all the aim of the UPT, the researchers looked at the role of leadership to participate in the process of developing the performance of the craftsmen. Therefore, researchers are trying to see and understand firsthand how the leadership role to improve the performance of the craftsmen and what the response generated afterwards. Through the process of making this final assignment, the author can know that leadership is very supportive to improve the performance of the craftsmen. And by conducting job training, participated in various exhibitions, and provide counseling and guidance on a variety of crafts has given quite satisfactory results for the craftsmen in preparation to launch a new world in opening a small business and can also be one way to reduce unemployment in Indonesia. Keywords: Leader, Managerial Skill, Craftsmen. Introduction High unemployment in Indonesia, including the city of Surabaya. It then becomes a reference for policy actors seek alternative employment for others to absorb the available labor. Entrepreneurship is one alternative that can provide solutions to these problems. As of 2009, the number of unemployed in Indonesia as many as 3.713 million people, higher than the desired target of government at the level of 2.38 million people (Kompas, 2009). In addition, until 2007, there were 740,206 unemployed college graduates. This proves that the field work in Indonesia is very small while the number of graduates each year continues to grow, Eddy Suryanto Soegoto, 2010. Entrepreneurship in the goods sector is economic artery in big cities like Surabaya. The high increase of population, resulting in the need for goods is also increasing rapidly. The problem becomes more complex due to the time available did not allow the public to be able to do all the priority needs at once. Bids will need items that instantly becomes an option. According Ritonga (2011), unemployment is mainly due to the problem of unskilled labor and skilled. The company prefers candidates who already have the skills or expertise. The issue is very relevant in our country, given the large numbers of unemployed are people who do not have the skills or expertise. The causes of unemployment are very visible from the complaint that the lack of skills in a person. The lack of confidence in one's soul, lack of interest and lack of socializing with others is also very influential in the intensity rising unemployment. It also agrees with Drs. Sudrajad, MM. (2011) who said "Cause Unemployment in Indonesia is the lack of desire to work, lack of skills and have thoughts just want to be an employee." This should be addressed with all efforts possible, because the average company today want and need employees who have the skill and expertise. Strengthening small and medium business sector is one of Indonesia's development policy. SMEs have the ability to survive in times of economic crisis gripping the country. At great effort faltered storm knocked down the financial crisis, the SME sector is able to give breath to the nation's economy. On this basis then arise initiative on craftsmen, to be able to meet those needs, by following the guidance and development by implementing the rules or ordinances of a leader who is really to improve the performance skills of a craftsman and judge it as something that is fairly decent to undertake entrepreneurial activities. Therefore, this is the reason why the researcher write about the efforts of a craftsman in business by implementing the rules of a good leader to improve their skills. In this case why the writer discuss this issue in order to make a useful input for all beginner craftsmen in Indonesia in order to become a successful craftsman and can open their own business field and in order to reduce the value of unemployment in Indonesia, especially in Surabaya. In the discussion of this material writer took guidance on UPT Aneka Industri dan Kerajinan Surabaya. Because according to the writer here is one of the features of a good government and the right to develop one's own skills to become a craftsman by implementing the rules of a successful leader as well. And in this case, the craftsmen also want to improve the quality and quantity of a craftsman in Indonesia. And with the application is expected to be more able to produce more young craftsmen who are talented and can create new business field and to reduce unemployment in Indonesia. By conducting training to improve the skills of a person more likely to get jobs than those who do not. This is because companies prefer to hire people with the skills, so do not bother to practice again. And can even be a great opportunity to expand the opening of a new business pitch. This is also one way to overcome the educated unemployment is mostly done by the government, AnneAhira (Social and Cultural Rights, 2012). Based on the research, the objective of the study are : To describe the implementation of leadership role, To implementation of leadership role of the craftsman, To analyze the craftsmen respond after the implementation of leadership role. The researcher hopes this study can give contribution to the student, craftsmen, University, the institution and for the readers. For the student it can be provide new insights about the real world of work to students in the field of trade and industry and can prepare themselves before entering the world of work firsthand. For the Craftsmen to be a reference to become a successful entrepreneur by implementing the rule of a leader. For the University as input to evaluate the Extend to which the curriculum has been implement in accordance with requirements of skilled manpower in the field. For the Institution as a media to open up new business opportunities as an example for students. For the Readers can provide the information needed by the reader. Definition of Leadership Leadership is a person or a leader who can build the subordinates especially in this case is a craftsman to craftsmen to become a more developed and has a broad view of creativity in him. By applying the concepts and meaning of fostering a craftsman can be expected to be a key new birth craftsmen talented and have high creativity. A leader in this regard should be always trying to develop the talents of the craftsmen gradually and regularly which lead to the desired goals or objectives. Leaders and leadership can be approached from different angles (Thoha, 1986:3). Each approach will bear different meanings with other approaches. Leaders and leadership needed by humans due to the advantages and disadvantages possessed by each human being. The leader is a person who has certain skills that can influence their followers to cooperate towards the achievement of predetermined objectives. The ideal leader is a dream for every person, because that's what leaders will bring forward-pullback of an organization, institution, company, state and nation. Surely the soul of a leader must have good soul of leadership that has been described in the above basic concepts and leadership should not be viewed as a facility for control, but meant as a sacrifice that must be carried out as well as possible. Leadership is also not arbitrary to act, but the power to serve and protect and do the fairest. Miftha Thoha in his book Organizational Behavior (1983:255) leader is someone who has the ability to lead, it means having the ability to influence another person or group without regard to the form of reason. Kartini Kartono (1994:33) the leader is a person who has the skills and strengths in particular skills and strengths in one area, so he was able to influence others to jointly carry out certain activities, for the achievement of one or more goals. Concept of Leadership The basic concept of the soul of leadership by Mr. Athoenk's (2010): Leadership is a force that flows in a way that is not known to the leader of the disciples, encouraging his followers to be mobilized on a regular basis to the point that formulated. Working towards goals and achievements provide satisfaction for leaders and followers. Leadership is also coloring and colored by the place, the environment and climate in which it serves. Leadership does not work in an empty room, but the atmosphere created by the various elements. Leadership is always active, it could change in rank, intensity and extent. Leadership works according to the principles, tools and methods are defined and fixed. Leadership Function According to Yuki (1998) the function of leadership is trying to influence and direct the employees to work hard, have high morale and high motivation to achieve organizational goals. This is primarily tied to the function of regulating the relations between individuals or groups within the organization. Craftsmen Subject (actor) and object in every handicraft industry development program. People who work to make craft items or people who have specific skills related to the craft. These items are not made by machines, but by hand so often called handicraft items. Craftsman is a professional who works consistently high quality, "as an actor he was a perfect craftsmen". Craftsmen create great skill in the manual arts. Craftsmen also called creator, which means people who grow or make or create things. The Relationship between Leadership and Craftsmen In this case the role of a leader is also very important and participate in fostering and development by conducting training and exhibitions the work of craftsmen. And may provide a strategy to cultivate the efforts of craftsmen. It is expected that the craftsmen also have the soul of a leader in developing a business. It is also stated by Ari Setiawanan (2011) in his personal blogger states "Leadership is the process of influencing or give examples of leaders to followers in an effort to achieve organizational goals. Natural way to learn leadership is to "do it in the workplace" with practices like apprenticeship in a skilled artist, craftsman, or practitioner. In this connection, the expert is expected as part of its role providing teaching / instruction ". Discussion about leaders and leadership as well as its influence on a craftsman in general explains how to be a good leader, and a style that suits the nature of leadership and what conditions need to be possessed by a good leader. Nevertheless it is still difficult to implement in full, so that in practice only a few leaders are able to perform well and the leadership to bring his followers to the desired state. The conclusion is that the performance can be improved either craftsmen, company or institution requires a good leader. Performance can be affected craftsmen of how leaders motivate, leadership style, giving implementation skills of the craftsmen, performance planning, and human resource management policies. Someone craftsmen who satisfied the leadership of the head or leader, will show a good attitude and strive earnestly perform their duties as the reciprocal of the leaders and organizations that have given him satisfaction. If the quality of work improved craftsmen, will have an impact on the quality of earnings in a personal effort to open his business. Leadership positive influence in improving the performance of craftsmen, craftsmen positive influence on the performance of the work of art. With so very obvious that the relationship between the two closely related and have a positive impact for both parties. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Research activities will not regardless of where the data is the raw material of information to provide a specific description of the object of research. Data are facts collected by researchers for the purpose of solving the problem or answer the research questions. Research data can come from a variety of sources collected by using a variety of techniques during the course of the study. Based on the source, research data can be grouped into two types of data qualitative research and quantitative research data. In this research, entitled "The Implementation of Leadership Role in Improving Managerial Skill of Craftsmen in UPT Aneka Industri dan Kerajinan Surabaya". Based on the question "How does the implementation of leadership role in improving managerial skill of craftsmen? And How does the craftsmen respond after the implementation of leadership role?" so this research used qualitative research. Qualitative data is data that collected by means of a process that saw the object of research. Such data over see the process rather than the result because it is based on a description of the process and not on mathematical calculations. Data collection techniques include observation, interviews, literature reviews, etc. It also agrees with Cahya Suryana (2010:115) which says the data is qualitative data in the form of words, not in the form of numbers. Qualitative data obtained through a variety of data collection techniques such as interviews, document analysis, the discussion focused or observations that have been set forth in the notes field (transcript). Other forms of qualitative data was obtained through shooting images or video recordings. In this research the researcher conducted research in UPT Aneka Industri dan Kerajinan Surabaya. UPT is Technical Services Unit are carrying out promotion and development of Small and Medium Industries (SMEs) and the Human Resources or business through Technical Training in the field of Management, Technology, Production Process, Standardization, Environment and Information. UPT Aneka Industri dan Kerajinan Surabaya is located on Jl. Pagesangan II / 38-42 Surabaya. In this place has two training rooms, each for a capacity of 40 people, has 10 bedrooms for 40 craftsmen, and other facilities provided. The writer believe this place highly qualified resource persons and trusted to get info on how the implementation of leadership role of the craftsmen to improve their performance and other info needed writer. In this case the implementation of leadership role is expected to improve the managerial skills of the craftsmen and to cultivate leadership skills and can teach it back to the new craftsmen later. In improving the performance of the craftsmen, the researcher often do see education and training, held an exhibition to the work of the craftsmen, and attend job training activities in the field of craft in UPT. Therefore the role of leadership is needed to manage and cultivate the managerial skills of the craftsmen. The role of leaders build skills one must master thriving. This is the next level of the management skills pyramid. Someone who must master personal development. This is the level of management skills, which shows the skills a person must master to be successful and show how management skills build on each other toward success. These are the basics that made the role of a leader for the management skill craftsmen: Plans Set Direct Control Motivation Conducting Training and Coaching The direct involvement of leader In this study the data of things that can be applied by craftsmen is the attitude of leadership, responsibility, caring and discipline. All that can be applied when crafting artisan training, opened the exhibition and even open their own craft business. Which was all the training can provide the knowledge and skills in the use of natural materials as craft materials. Preparing artisans to improve their skills through training and creative design products. Facilitate in developing its business so as to improve the competitiveness of products in the local and international markets. By implementing a leadership role in the managerial skill craftsmen are expected to increase knowledge of the design and color combination to make crafts. Craftsmen can transfer the new knowledge gained to other craftsmen and all those who would learn a new craftsmen. Craftsmen can be more creative in making other handicrafts. RESULT AND DISCUSSION This chapter will analyze the data that has been collected. The purpose of analyzing the data is to answer the questions of the researcher. As mentioned in the first chapter, "How does the implementation of leadership role in improving managerial skill of craftsmen?" and "How does the craftsmen respond after the implementation of leadership role?". The subject in this research are the craftsmen. From sources that the authors could have about ±30 craftsmen who are doing the implementation and development of skill. In this research the author prefers the craftsmen making plaiting and ceramic or gypsum. The Implementation of Leadership Role in Improving Managerial Skill of Craftsmen In this case the data subject can be applied by craftsmen is the attitude of leadership, responsibility, a sense of caring and discipline. All that can be applied when artisans craft training, opened the exhibition and even opened his own craft business. Which is the training it can provide all the knowledge and skills in the use of natural materials as craft materials. Preparing crafters to enhance the capabilities and skills through creative design products. Facilitate in developing its business so as to improve the competitiveness of products in the local and international markets. With the moral support and provide the necessary facilities, providing motivation, conduct training and job fairs for the efforts of craftsmen also a way to improve the performance of the leader of the craftsmen. Here are some ways to improve the performance of the craftsmen: Guide and cultivate prospective new employers that will be developed into an independent businessman. Given coaching or income. Given technical training. Examples given creative woven design, gypsum, and ceramics. Held the exhibition of the craftsmen. The purpose of these activities is intended to: Improve the skills of the craftsmen, To foster the craftsmen in order to thrive, That the craftsmen more creative, Can give entrepreneurs insight, To support the welfare and craftsmen, Fostering the craftsmen to be independent and get satisfactory results, Mental strengthen the craftsmen to become a successful entrepreneur, as a successful entrepreneur should require struggle and sacrifice. The Craftsmen Respond after the Implementation of Leadership Role Subject (actor) and object in every handicraft industry development program. People who work to make craft items or people who have specific skills related to the craft. These items are not made by machines, but by hand so often called handicraft items. Craftsman is a professional who works consistently high quality, "as an actor he was a perfect craftsmen". For craftsmen to apply leadership role to improve the managerial skills of the craftsmen is very important because it can help the craftsmen to be able to perform all the activities during the training on the craft. In this case that is the primary motivation is a craftsman wants to be a successful artisans, craft businesses can open and create new jobs to reduce unemployment in Indonesia. CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION Conclusion The conclusion is that the performance can be improved either craftsmen, company or institution requires a good leader. Performance can be affected craftsmen of how leaders motivate, leadership style, giving implementation skills of the craftsmen, performance planning, and human resource management policies. Someone craftsmen who satisfied the leadership of the head or leader, will show a good attitude and strive earnestly perform their duties as the reciprocal of the leaders and organizations that have given him satisfaction. If the quality of work improved craftsmen, will have an impact on the quality of earnings in a personal effort to open his business. Leadership positive influence in improving the performance of craftsmen, craftsmen positive influence on the performance of the work of art. With so very obvious that the relationship between the two closely related and have a positive impact for both parties. Suggestion The expectations of the craftsmen is that welfare can be much better and can open their own business field by always applying a given leadership roles during a training run. And hopefully this research can be useful for readers to find the information they want to know about the craftsmen can add insight and knowledge. And also can make a new discourse about the craftsmen at UPT Aneka Industri dan Kerajinan Surabaya. REFERENCE Peraturan Gubernur Jawa Timur, 2008, Organisasi Dan Tata Kerja Unit Pelayanan Teknis Dinas Perindustrian Dan Perdagangan Provinsi Jawa Timur, Surabaya. UPT Aneka Industri dan Kerajinan Jawa Timur, 2012, Pembinaan dan Pengembangan Karyawan dan Pengrajin, Jawa Timur, Surabaya. Reh, F. John. 2009. Management Skill. About.com Guide Http//.www.geogle.com.Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan Qibtiyah, Mariyatul. 2008. "PENGEMBANGAN USAHA SENTRA PENGRAJIN BATIK". Malang: UIN. Reh, F. John. 2009. Management Guide. About.com Guide. It's retrieved from http://management.about.com/bio/F-John-Reh-229.htm http//.www.geogle. com.What is Leadership Drs. Sudrajad, MM. 2011. Kiat Mengentaskan Pengangguran dan Kemiskinan melalui Wirausaha. Bumi Aksara Athoenk's. Mr. (2010) Konsep Jiwa Pemimpin / Leadership. http://athoenk46.wordpress.com/?s=konsep+jiwa+pemimpin Zahra. Fatimah. Opinion Blog Unemployment, 2012. Universitas Gunadarma: Jakarta. It's retrieved from http://fzahrah.blogspot.com/ Smith. Nasuha. 2011. Teori Dasar Kepemimpinan. It's retrieved from http://nasuhasmith13.blogspot.com/2011/03/teori-dasar-kepemimpinan.html Wiradi. Dewa. 2012. Definisi Kepemimpinan Menurut Para Ahli dan Dalam Beberapa Kamus Modern Elqorni. Ahmad. 2011. Definisi pemimpin dan kepemimpinan. Emzeth. 2010. Kriteria Seorang Pemimpin from http://www.emzeth.com/2010/11/kriteria-seorang-pemimpin-sejati.html#ixzz1u0ecM9K6 Bahrodin. Deby Putra. 2012. Arti seorang Pemimpin, from http://www.dputra.com/2012/02/arti-seorang-pemimpin.html Setiadi, MKEP. 2011. Konsep Kepemimpinan. Power Point: Jakarta. http://referensi-kepemimpinan.blogspot.com/

Ali Abbas (" From the Editors… ") is an associate professor in the Department of Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering at the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign. He received an M.S. in electrical engineering (1998), an M.S. in engineering economic systems and operations research (2001), a Ph.D. in management science and engineering (2003), and a Ph.D. (minor) in electrical engineering, all from Stanford University. He worked as a lecturer in the Department of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford and worked in Schlumberger Oilfield Services from 1991 to 1997, where he held several international positions in wireline logging, operations management, and international training. He has also worked on several consulting projects for mergers and acquisitions in California, and cotaught several executive seminars on decision analysis at Strategic Decisions Group in Menlo Park, California. His research interests include utility theory, decision making with incomplete information and preferences, dynamic programming, and information theory. Dr. Abbas is a senior member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE) and a member of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). He is also an associate editor for Decision Analysis and Operations Research and coeditor of the DA column in education for Decision Analysis Today. Address: Department of Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, 117 Transportation Building, MC-238, 104 South Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801; e-mail: aliabbas@uiuc.edu . Matthew D. Bailey (" Eliciting Patients' Revealed Preferences: An Inverse Markov Decision Process Approach ") is an assistant professor of business analytics and operations in the School of Management at Bucknell University, and he is an adjunct research investigator with Geisinger Health System. He received his Ph.D. in industrial and operations engineering from the University of Michigan. His primary research interest is in sequential decision making under uncertainty with applications to health-care operations and medical decision making. He is a member of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) and the Institute of Industrial Engineers (IIE). Address: School of Management, Bucknell University, 308 Taylor Hall, Lewisburg, PA 17837; e-mail: matt.bailey@bucknell.edu . Anthony M. Barrett (" Cost Effectiveness of On-Site Chlorine Generation for Chlorine Truck Attack Prevention ") is a risk analyst at ABS Consulting in Arlington, Virginia. He holds a Ph.D. in engineering and public policy from Carnegie Mellon University, and he also was a postdoctoral research associate at the Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) at the University of Southern California. His research interests include risk analysis, risk management, and public policies in a wide variety of areas, including terrorism, hazardous materials, energy and the environment, and natural hazards. Address: ABS Consulting, 1525 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 625, Arlington, VA 22209; e-mail: abarrett@absconsulting.com . Manel Baucells (" From the Editors… ") is a full professor at the Department of Economics and Business of Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona. He was an associate professor and head of the Managerial Decision Sciences Department at IESE Business School. He earned his Ph.D. in management from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and holds a degree in mechanical engineering from Polytechnic University of Catalonia (UPC). His research and consulting activities cover multiple areas of decision making including group decisions, consumer decisions, uncertainty, complexity, and psychology. He acts as associate editor for the top journals Management Science, Operations Research, and Decision Analysis. He has received various prizes and grants for his research. In 2001, he won the student paper competition of the Decision Analysis Society. He is the only IESE professor having won both the Excellence Research Award and the Excellence Teaching Award. He has been visiting professor at Duke University, UCLA, London Business School, and Erasmus University. Address: Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27, 08005 Barcelona, Spain; e-mail: manel.baucells@upf.edu . J. Eric Bickel (" Scoring Rules and Decision Analysis Education ") is an assistant professor in both the Operations Research/Industrial Engineering Group (Department of Mechanical Engineering) and the Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin. In addition, Professor Bickel is a fellow in both the Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy and the Center for Petroleum Asset Risk Management. He holds an M.S. and Ph.D. from the Department of Engineering-Economic Systems at Stanford University and a B.S. in mechanical engineering with a minor in economics from New Mexico State University. His research interests include the theory and practice of decision analysis and its application in the energy and climate-change arenas. His research has addressed the modeling of probabilistic dependence, value of information, scoring rules, calibration, risk preference, education, decision making in sports, and climate engineering as a response to climate change. Prior to joining the University of Texas at Austin, Professor Bickel was an assistant professor at Texas A&M University and a senior engagement manager for Strategic Decisions Group. He has consulted around the world in a range of industries, including oil and gas, electricity generation/transmission/delivery, energy trading and marketing, commodity and specialty chemicals, life sciences, financial services, and metals and mining. Address: Graduate Program in Operations Research, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station, C2200, Austin, TX 78712-0292; e-mail: ebickel@mail.utexas.edu . Vicki M. Bier (" From the Editors… ") holds a joint appointment as a professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering and the Department of Engineering Physics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, where she has directed the Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis (formerly the Center for Human Performance in Complex Systems) since 1995. She has more than 20 years of experience in risk analysis for the nuclear power, chemical, petrochemical, and aerospace industries. Before returning to academia, she spent seven years as a consultant at Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc. While there, her clients included the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the U.S. Department of Energy, and a number of nuclear utilities, and she prepared testimony for Atomic Safety and Licensing Board hearings on the safety of the Indian Point nuclear power plants. Dr. Bier's current research focuses on applications of risk analysis and related methods to problems of security and critical infrastructure protection, under support from the Department of Homeland Security. Dr. Bier received the Women's Achievement Award from the American Nuclear Society in 1993, and was elected a Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis in 1996, from which she received the Distinguished Achievement Award in 2007. She has written a number of papers and book chapters related to uncertainty analysis and decision making under uncertainty, and is the author of two scholarly review articles on risk communication. She served as the engineering editor for Risk Analysis from 1997 through 2001, and has served as a councilor of both the Society for Risk Analysis and the Decision Analysis Society, for which she is currently vice president and president elect. Dr. Bier has also served as a member of both the Radiation Advisory Committee and the Homeland Security Advisory Committee of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Science Advisory Board. Address: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin–Madison, 1513 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53706; e-mail: bier@engr.wisc.edu . Samuel E. Bodily (" Darden's Luckiest Student: Lessons from a High-Stakes Risk Experiment ") is the John Tyler Professor of Business Administration at the University of Virginia's Darden School of Business and has published textbooks and more than 40 articles in journals ranging from Harvard Business Review to Management Science. His publications relate to decision and risk analysis, forecasting, strategy modeling, revenue management, and eStrategy. He has edited special issues of Interfaces on decision and risk analysis and strategy modeling and analysis. Professor Bodily has published well over 100 cases, including a couple of the 10 best-selling cases at Darden. He received the Distinguished Casewriter Wachovia Award from Darden in 2005 and three other best case or research Wachovia awards. He is faculty leader for an executive program on Strategic Thinking and Action. He is the course head of, and teaches in, a highly valued first-year MBA course in decision analysis, has a successful second-year elective on Management Decision Models, and has taught eStrategy and Strategy. He is a past winner of the Decision Sciences International Instructional Award and has served as chair of the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society. He has taught numerous executive education programs for Darden and private companies, has consulted widely for business and government entities, and has served as an expert witness. Professor Bodily was on the faculties of MIT Sloan School of Management and Boston University and has been a visiting professor at INSEAD Singapore, Stanford University, and the University of Washington. He has a Ph.D. degree and an S.M. degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a B.S. degree in physics from Brigham Young University. Address: Darden School of Business, 100 Darden Boulevard, Charlottesville, VA 22903; e-mail: bodilys@virginia.edu . David Budescu (" From the Editors… ") is the Anne Anastasi Professor of Psychometrics and Quantitative Psychology at Fordham University. He held positions at the University of Illinois and the University of Haifa, and visiting positions at Carnegie Mellon University, University of Gotheborg, the Kellog School at Northwestern University, the Hebrew University, and the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion). His research is in the areas of human judgment, individual and group decision making under uncertainty and with incomplete and vague information, and statistics for the behavioral and social sciences. He is or was on the editorial boards of Applied Psychological Measurement; Decision Analysis; Journal of Behavioral Decision Making; Journal of Mathematical Psychology; Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition (2000–2003); Multivariate Behavioral Research; Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (1992–2002); and Psychological Methods (1996–2000). He is past president of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making (2000–2001), fellow of the Association for Psychological Science, and an elected member of the Society of Multivariate Experimental Psychologists. Address: Department of Psychology, Fordham University, Bronx, New York, NY 10458; e-mail: budescu@fordham.edu . John C. Butler (" From the Editors… ") is a clinical associate professor of finance and the academic director of the Energy Management and Innovation Center in the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin, and the secretary/treasurer of the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society. Butler received his Ph.D. in management science and information systems from the University of Texas in 1998. His research interests involve the use of decision science models to support decision making, with a particular emphasis on decision and risk analysis models with multiple performance criteria. Butler has consulted with a number of organizations regarding the application of decision analysis tools to a variety of practical problems. Most of his consulting projects involve use of Visual Basic for Applications and Excel to implement complex decision science models in a user-friendly format. Address: Center for Energy Management and Innovation, McCombs School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712-1178; e-mail: john.butler2@mccombs.utexas.edu . Philippe Delquié (" From the Editors… ") is an associate professor of decision sciences at the George Washington University and holds a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Professor Delquié's teaching and research are in decision, risk, and multicriteria analysis. His work focuses on the interplay of behavioral and normative theories of choice, with the aim of improving managerial decision making and risk taking. His research addresses issues in preference assessment, value of information, nonexpected utility models of choice under risk, and risk measures. Prior to joining the George Washington University, he held academic appointments at INSEAD, the University of Texas at Austin, and École Normale Supérieure, France, and visiting appointments at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business. Address: Department of Decision Sciences, George Washington University, Funger Hall, Suite 415, Washington, DC 20052; e-mail: delquie@gwu.edu . Zeynep Erkin (" Eliciting Patients' Revealed Preferences: An Inverse Markov Decision Process Approach ") is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Industrial Engineering at the University of Pittsburgh. She received her M.S. and B.S. degrees in industrial engineering from the University of Pittsburgh and Middle East Technical University, Turkey, in 2008 and 2006, respectively. Her research interests include maintenance optimization and medical decision making. Address: Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, 3600 O'Hara Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15261; e-mail: zee2@pitt.edu . Peter I. Frazier (" Paradoxes in Learning and the Marginal Value of Information ") is an assistant professor in the School of Operations Research and Information Engineering at Cornell University. He received a Ph.D. in operations research and financial engineering from Princeton University in 2009. His research interest is in the optimal acquisition of information, with applications in simulation, medicine, operations management, neuroscience, and information retrieval. He teaches courses in simulation and statistics. Address: School of Operations Research and Information Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853; e-mail: pf98@cornell.edu . L. Robin Keller (" From the Editors… ") is a professor of operations and decision technologies in the Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine. She received her Ph.D. and M.B.A. in management science and her B.A. in mathematics from the University of California, Los Angeles. She has served as a program director for the Decision, Risk, and Management Science Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). Her research is on decision analysis and risk analysis for business and policy decisions and has been funded by NSF and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Her research interests cover multiple-attribute decision making, riskiness, fairness, probability judgments, ambiguity of probabilities or outcomes, risk analysis (for terrorism, environmental, health, and safety risks), time preferences, problem structuring, cross-cultural decisions, and medical decision making. She is currently Editor-in-Chief of Decision Analysis, published by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). She is a Fellow of INFORMS and has held numerous roles in INFORMS, including board member and chair of the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society. She is a recipient of the George F. Kimball Medal from INFORMS. She has served as the decision analyst on three National Academy of Sciences committees. Address: The Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697-3125; e-mail: lrkeller@uci.edu . Lisa M. Maillart (" Eliciting Patients' Revealed Preferences: An Inverse Markov Decision Process Approach ") is an associate professor in the Industrial Engineering Department at the University of Pittsburgh. Prior to joining the faculty at the University of Pittsburgh, she served on the faculty of the Department of Operations in the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University. She received her M.S. and B.S. in industrial and systems engineering from Virginia Tech, and her Ph.D. in industrial and operations engineering from the University of Michigan. Her primary research interest is in sequential decision making under uncertainty, with applications in medical decision making and maintenance optimization. She is a member of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), the Society of Medical Decision Making (SMDM), and the Institute of Industrial Engineers (IIE). Address: Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, 3600 O'Hara Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15261; e-mail: maillart@pitt.edu . Jason R. W. Merrick (" From the Editors… ") is an associate professor in the Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research at Virginia Commonwealth University. He has a D.Sc. in operations research from the George Washington University. He teaches courses in decision analysis, risk analysis, and simulation. His research is primarily in the area of decision analysis and Bayesian statistics. He has worked on projects ranging from assessing maritime oil transportation and ferry system safety, the environmental health of watersheds, and optimal replacement policies for rail tracks and machine tools, and he has received grants from the National Science Foundation, the Federal Aviation Administration, the United States Coast Guard, the American Bureau of Shipping, British Petroleum, and Booz Allen Hamilton, among others. He has also performed training for Infineon Technologies, Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, and Capital One Services. He is an associate editor for Decision Analysis and Operations Research. He is the information officer for the Decision Analysis Society. Address: Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA 23284; e-mail: jrmerric@vcu.edu . Phillip E. Pfeifer (" Darden's Luckiest Student: Lessons from a High-Stakes Risk Experiment ") is the Richard S. Reynolds Professor of Business at the University of Virginia's Darden School of Business, where he teaches courses in decision analysis and direct marketing. A graduate of Lehigh University and the Georgia Institute of Technology, his teaching has won student awards and has been recognized in Business Week's Guide to the Best Business Schools. He is an active researcher in the areas of decision making and direct marketing, and he currently serves on the editorial review board of the Journal of Interactive Marketing, which named him their best reviewer of 2008. In 2004 he was recognized as the Darden School's faculty leader in terms of external case sales, and in 2006 he coauthored a managerial book, Marketing Metrics: 50+ Metrics Every Executive Should Master, published by Wharton School Publishing, which was named best marketing book of the year by Strategy + Business. Address: Darden School of Business; 100 Darden Boulevard; Charlottesville, VA 22903; e-mail: pfeiferp@virginia.edu . Warren B. Powell (" Paradoxes in Learning and the Marginal Value of Information ") is a professor in the Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering at Princeton University, where he has taught since 1981. He is the director of CASTLE Laboratory (Princeton University), which specializes in the development of stochastic optimization models and algorithms with applications in transportation and logistics, energy, health, and finance. The author or coauthor of more than 160 refereed publications, he is an INFORMS Fellow, and the author of Approximate Dynamic Programming: Solving the Curses of Dimensionality, published by John Wiley and Sons. His primary research interests are in approximate dynamic programming for high-dimensional applications and optimal learning (the efficient collection of information), and their application in energy systems analysis and transportation. He is a recipient of the Wagner prize and has twice been a finalist in the Edelman competition. He has also served in a variety of editorial and administrative positions for INFORMS, including INFORMS Board of Directors, area editor for Operations Research, president of the Transportation Science Section, and numerous prize and administrative committees. Address: Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; e-mail: powell@princeton.edu . Mark S. Roberts (" Eliciting Patients' Revealed Preferences: An Inverse Markov Decision Process Approach "), M.D., M.P.P., is professor and chair of health policy and management, and he holds secondary appointments in medicine, industrial engineering, and clinical and translational science. A practicing general internist, he has conducted research in decision analysis and the mathematical modeling of disease for more than 25 years, and he has expertise in cost effectiveness analysis, mathematical optimization and simulation, and the measurement and inclusion of patient preferences into decision problems. He has used decision analysis to examine clinical, costs, policy and allocation questions in liver transplantation, vaccination strategies, operative interventions, and the use of many medications. His recent research has concentrated in the use of mathematical methods from operations research and management science, including Markov decision processes, discrete-event simulation, and integer programming, to problems in health care. Address: Department of Health Policy and Management, University of Pittsburgh, Graduate School of Public Health, 130 De Soto Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15261; e-mail: robertsm@upmc.edu . Ahti Salo (" From the Editors… ") is a professor of systems analysis at the Systems Analysis Laboratory of Aalto University. His research interests include topics in portfolio decision analysis, multicriteria decision making, risk management, efficiency analysis, and technology foresight. He is currently president of the Finnish Operations Research Society (FORS) and represents Europe and the Middle East in the INFORMS International Activities Committee. Professor Salo has been responsible for the methodological design and implementation of numerous high-impact decision and policy processes, including FinnSight 2015, the national foresight exercise of the Academy of Finland and the National Funding Agency for Technology and Innovations (Tekes). Address: Aalto University, Systems Analysis Laboratory, P.O. Box 11100, 00076 Aalto, Finland; e-mail: ahti.salo@tkk.fi . Andrew J. Schaefer (" Eliciting Patients' Revealed Preferences: An Inverse Markov Decision Process Approach ") is an associate professor of industrial engineering and Wellington C. Carl Fellow at the University of Pittsburgh. He has courtesy appointments in bioengineering, medicine, and clinical and translational science. He received his Ph.D. in industrial and systems engineering from Georgia Tech in 2000. His research interests include the application of stochastic optimization methods to health-care problems, as well as stochastic optimization techniques, in particular, stochastic integer programming. He is interested in patient-oriented decision making in contexts such as end-stage liver disease, HIV/AIDS, sepsis, and diabetes. He also models health-care systems, including operating rooms and intensive-care units. He is an associate editor for INFORMS Journal on Computing and IIE Transactions. Address: Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, 3600 O'Hara Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15261; e-mail: Schaefer@pitt.edu . George Wu (" From the Editors… ") has been on the faculty of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business since September 1997. His degrees include A.B. (applied mathematics, 1985), S.M. (applied mathematics, 1987), and Ph.D. (decision sciences, 1991), all from Harvard University. Prior to joining the faculty at the University of Chicago, Professor Wu was on the faculty at Harvard Business School. Wu worked as a decision analyst at Procter & Gamble prior to starting graduate school. His research interests include descriptive and prescriptive aspects of decision making, in particular, decision making involving risk, cognitive biases in bargaining and negotiation, and managerial and organizational decision making. Professor Wu is a coordinating editor for Theory and Decision, an advisory editor for Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, on the editorial boards of Decision Analysis and Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, and a former department editor of Management Science. Address: Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, 5807 South Woodlawn Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637; e-mail: wu@chicagobooth.edu .

El agotamiento del petróleo, conocido en la bibliografía especializada como "the peak of oil", no es una inminente catástrofe natural sino una realidad política de largo plazo. Esta presenta serios desafíos, tanto para países consumidores como para países productores. En cuanto a los Estados Unidos, su rol de poder global dentro del orden mundial dependerá en gran medida de la manera en que dicho país responda al desafío energético planteado. En términos prácticos los EE.UU deberán garantizarse a sí mismos y a sus aliados la provisión constante de combustibles convencionales, al tiempo que consolidarse en el primer lugar en la carrera ya librada por desarrollar energías alternativas. Acompañando este doble esfuerzo, el país número uno en difusión de su cultura popular deberá crear y difundir nuevos patrones culturales de consumo de energía. En la primera sección de este artículo presentaré el debate entre los "optimistas" y los "pesimistas" respecto de la disponibilidad futura del petróleo "barato" o "fácil". En la segunda sección presento un análisis, que aplicando la lógica científica e integrando factores económico-políticos, argumenta a favor de los "pesimistas". En la tercera sección explico el modo en que el futuro hegemónico de los EEUU dependerá de la manera en que sea manejada una "transición energética de largo plazo" y presento algunas recomendaciones generales. 1. Pesimismo Científico Vs. Optimismo Falaz: El modelo de Hubbert. El modelo del "peak of oil" de Hubbert (1) afirma que partiendo desde cero, la producción de todo pozo petrolero crece hasta alcanzar su pico máximo en el momento en que la mitad de las reservas han sido extraídas. Luego de este "punto medio", la tasa de extracción comienza una irreversible declinación. Este fenómeno puede ser representado en forma de campana de Gaus. En esta función logarítmica el área contenida dentro de la campana expresa la producción acumulada. El modelo fue diseñado al observar la vida útil de los pozos petroleros de los EEUU hacia la década del 50 y desde entonces cada nueva cuenca petrolífera ha seguido el mismo patrón. El modelo es simple y provee una explicación científica de gran parsimonia para el fenómeno del agotamiento petrolero. Nadie ha refutado teóricamente este razonamiento de solidas bases epistemológicas, pero lo que es más preocupante aun: las estadísticas de la producción han confirmado el patrón en la práctica. No solo eso. La tasa de descubrimiento de nuevos pozos de petróleo alrededor del mundo ha venido describiendo una curva similar. Tal es así puesto que el principio que Hubbert aplicó al petróleo, es el que se observa en el consumo de todo recurso consumido de manera "libre" y "normal". Independientemente de la fecha exacta en que el pico mundial ha sido o será alcanzado, lo que resulta importante es el patrón general de declinación productiva. A esta declinación debe adicionarse el hecho de que el consumo energético se incrementa sostenidamente a escala global a un ritmo que la producción no puede ni podrá seguir. El Optimismo de los críticos de Hubbert se basa generalmente en señalar que su modelo no ha tenido en cuenta distintos factores relevantes. En efecto, aspectos técnico-geológicos, económicos y políticos no forman parte del mismo. Sin embargo, veremos que dichos factores no niegan la conclusión principal del modelo, esta es, la irreversible declinación productiva, sino que solo refieren a la posibilidad de extender su plazo. Podemos dividir en tres grupos a quienes afirman que el petróleo "fácil" o "barato" seguirá estando disponible(2): Hechos Geológicos y Argumentos Técnicos:"Las reservas mundiales eran de 645 billones de barriles en 1977. Hacia 1990 fueron producidos alrededor de 320 billones de barriles. Sin embargo las reservas ascienden hoy a casi 1 trillon de barriles. (…) El agotamiento es como el horizonte, siempre alejándose a medida que uno se mueve hacia el." (Adelman: 1991, p.4)"…extensas aéreas del planeta permanecen inexploradas o solo superficialmente evaluadas (…) valores inicialmente citados para el extracción ultima estimado(3) tienden a crecer en el tiempo debido a taladros adicionales o mayores tasas de recuperación." (Smil: 2008, p. 171)"Consideremos, por ejemplo, que solamente en Texas han sido instaladas 1 millón de bombas, contra 2300 en todo Irak y que hoy hay más de 569.000 bombas produciendo en los EE.UU contra apenas más de 1500 en Arabia Saudita."(Maugeri: 2006, p.204)"Cuando un nuevo pozo es encontrado recibe un tamaño estimado que indica cuando se supone que es extraíble en ese momento. Sin embargo a medida que los años pasan la estimación es casi siempre corregida ascendentemente. (…) Cientos de pozos que producen "petróleo fácil" hoy, fueren una vez considerados tecnológicamente inalcanzables. (…) Como los saudíes han demostrado recientemente en Ghawar, inversión adicional –para encontrar nuevos depósitos y realizar nuevas perforaciones- puede mantener la producción total de un pozo." (Michael Lynch, "Peak oil is a waste of energy", New York Times, August 25, 2009)Observación: Incluso una exploración extendida hacia todos los rincones del planeta y el uso intensivo de tecnología no cambiarían el patrón general descrito por el modelo de Hubbert. Por otra parte, es necesario destacar que no todos los argumentos expuestos se refieren al petróleo "fácil" o "barato". Argumentos Económico-Financieros:"El petróleo sigue siendo abundante y el precio probablemente bajara a su nivel histórico de U$S 30 el barril a medida que nueva provisión llegue de las aguas profundas de África Occidental y América Latina, del Este Africano y quizá de los campos de petróleo de esquisto (4) en Montana o Dakota del Norte" (Michael Lynch, "Peak oil is a waste of energy", New York Times, August 25, 2009)"El elevado precio de la ultima década ha generado también un masivo salto tecnológico (…) el esquisto en Norteamérica es tan vasto que hay planes para su exportación como el GNL (5) de la costa Oeste de Canadá. (…) Los elevados precios han disparado revoluciones tecnológicas similares a lo largo de toda la cadena de producción energética, haciendo descender los costos de extraer petróleo de las arenas canadienses, la Tundra siberiana y el mar brasilero." (Edward Morse: 2009, p.5) "Cuanto más limita la OPEC su propia producción para subir los precios, mas las compañías internacionales tienen incentivos para invertir dinero en el desarrollo de nuevas Fuentes fuera de la OPEC." (Maugeri: 2009, p. 260)Observación: Estos argumentos son verdades parciales referidos principalmente al sector productivo de la industria petrolera y, particularmente a las compañías internacionales de petróleo (IOC's). Sin embargo, estas compañías solo dominan el 8% de las reservas mundiales de crudo y pocas aéreas accesibles para la exploración. Estos argumentos no toman en cuenta a los países consumidores y las implicancias para sus presupuestos nacionales. Por otra parte, al igual que el grupo anterior, los argumentos expuestos no se refieren al petróleo "fácil" y "barato". Argumentos Políticos y de Seguridad:"Así como en los 70s se trato del embargo petrolero árabe y la revolución iraní, hoy se trata de la invasión a Irak y la inestabilidad política en Venezuela y Nigeria. Pero la solución, como siempre, es un cambio en el destino de las inversiones de la industria hacia nuevas regiones, y esto es lo que se está haciendo." (Michael Lynch, "Peak oil is a waste of energy", New York Times, August 25, 2009)"Un periodo extendido de bajos precios podría revertir el proceso hacia el nacionalismo de los recursos, la tendencia de los países productores a concentrar el control de sus recursos en manos de entidades estatales…" (Edward Morse: 2009, p.1) "…la imagen espejada de los países consumidores y su histeria por la inseguridad petrolera ha sido el creciente "nacionalismo de los recursos" por parte de los productores (…) la leyes del mercado –aunque imperfectas- han prevalecido siempre manteniendo el desastre a raya. (…) hasta Osama Bin Laden parece haber tomado una mirada cauta en relación a los precios del petróleo." (Maugeri: 2006, p. 266)Observación: Diluir y perder de vista los desafíos políticos y de seguridad en un mar llamado "Mercado" lleva a la confusión y resulta peligroso. Debido a que "the true threat to that security arises from political reasons exogenous to the energy market itself." (Doran: 2007, p. 234)Una Perspectiva Realista:Los argumentos optimistas son semánticamente elusivos al negar el "peak of oil": Por un lado tienden a interpretar "seguridad" de manera literal. Al mismo tiempo, algunos de ellos afirman eufemísticamente que "…a process of de-conventionalization is taking place". (6) En mi opinión, el sentido del debate debe referirse al petróleo "fácil" definido como "…high quality, close to the market and not too expensive to extract." (7) Las proposiciones optimistas toman las variables técnicas, económicas y políticas de manera aislada, sin combinarlas entre ellas y de acuerdo a sus propias presuposiciones: Esta simplificación ignora hechos, impide contemplar el amplio abanico de externalidades negativas o nos lleva a explicaciones tautológicas. Hechos y Externalidades Negativas Ignoradas por los Optimistas:Un tercio del déficit comercial de los EEUU se debe a la importación de petróleo.El precio del petróleo afecta la estructura relativa del precio de los alimentos debido a los insumos derivados requeridos por la agricultura.El rol del dólar como moneda de referencia para el precio del petróleo afecta negativamente a los EEUU vis a vis países productores y otros consumidores, particularmente China. El 70% del petróleo mundial se encuentra en el Golfo Pérsico. Si bien esta región es una proveedora menor para los EEUU, dada la elevada integración del Mercado petrolero, cualquier disrupción, en cualquier punto afectaría los precios para el sistema en su conjunto. La elevada vulnerabilidad de los pozos de petróleo, refinerías y puntos neurálgicos de las rutas comerciales. El costo político y económico que acarrea para los EEUU las medidas para asegurar el Golfo Pérsico. Las implicancias de un Irán nuclearizado que adicionara nuevas tensiones a la región. Contradicciones y Explicaciones Tautológicas ofrecidas por los Optimistas: El "basto petróleo disponible" no está disponible debido a que la inversión correcta no puede alcanzar el lugar correcto.Mientras tanto, distintos aspectos del "peak of oil" se hacen evidentes aun para la prensa no especializada: "Desde iniciados los 80s, los descubrimientos no lograron igualar la tasa global de consumo (…) En cambio, las compañías han logrado expandir la producción encontrando nuevos modos de extraer mas petróleo de los pozos existentes, o produciendo mediante recursos no convencionales, como las arenas bituminosas canadienses o el petróleo pesado de Venezuela." (Jad Mouawad, "Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries", New York Times, September 24, 2009).El bien documentado libro del Profesor Klare "Rising Powers Shrinking Planet" ha descrito al detalle el modo en que el mercado energético se está tornando cada vez más politizado al tiempo que las compañías nacionales de petróleo y sus gobiernos trabajan asertivamente para satisfacer sus necesidades. Ante el aumento en la competencia y la carrera tecnológica, ¿que deberían hacer los EEUU?2. El Futuro de los EEUU y el Orden MundialLa creciente demanda energética, por un lado, y la declinación en la producción y accesibilidad petrolera por el otro, representan un serio desafío para los EE.UU y su rol de poder global. Un EEUU herido económicamente se vería amenazado en su status y su rol hegemónico estaría en riesgo, aún mas de lo que ya se encuentra hoy. Nos encontramos en una nueva etapa histórica y el futuro de los EEUU dependerá de las decisiones que sean tomadas así como del modo en que sean implementadas. De acuerdo al professor Smil: "…energy transitions have always been among the most important stimuli for technical advances." (Smil:2008 p. 175) Sería en el interés de los EEUU seguir este razonamiento que implica que "…an indisputable peak followed by precipitous decline in production would not trigger and unchecked bidding for the remaining oil but would rather accelerate an ongoing shift to other energy sources." (Smil: 2008, p.174) Sin embargo el final feliz no está asegurado. Los EEUU deberán trabajar para modelar una nueva cultura energética que reduzca y haga más eficiente el consumo. Al mismo tiempo deberán situarse primeros en la carrera tecnológica que implica la búsqueda de energías alternativas. EEUU deberá seguir lidiando con los desafíos actuales del mercado mundial del petróleo debido a que las energías alternativas no son económicamente competitivas todavía. El reto es económico, político y tecnológico.La historia ha dejado algunas lecciones que deben ser tomadas en cuenta. Entre especialistas es extendido el acuerdo respecto de que luego de cada recesión, al repuntar la demanda de energía, esta es menor que en el periodo previo. Las medidas de conservación y eficiencia que explican dicho fenómeno deben ser estudiadas, mejoradas y popularizadas. Por otra parte, los miembros de la OPEC, al igual que otros productores, se encuentran enfrentando sus propios problemas brindando una oportunidad a la diplomacia constructiva. El creciente mercado de gas natural licuado y el proceso de concientización respecto del calentamiento global se presentan como fenómenos planetarios haciendo posible la movilización de la opinón publica para fines políticos. El desafío es serio pero no insoluble. Como expresó el Profesor Adelman refiriendose a la batalla entre el precio de las commodities y la carrera científica:"Historically, knowledge has won and almost all mineral prices have decreased, though this need not always be true. If costs rise, they will inflict higher prices, which will choke off demand." (Adelman: 1991, p.2) En términos generales puede establecerse que: 1) Deben tomarse medidas para mitigar y retardar las consecuencias del decrecimiento en la accesibilidad al petróleo "fácil". 2) El desarrollo de tecnologías substitutas debe ser una prioridad cuyos efectos solo podrán ser efectivos si es perseguida a escala global. 3) Esta carrera implica una competencia que podría llegar a resultar en un nuevo balance de poder mundial. La estrategia general de los EEUU debe sustentarse en la idea de que "…the resolution to the conflict between America's current approach to energy and the enviroment is one of the most effective ways to bring the country back toward a more constructive relationship with the rest of the word…" (Fuerth: 2005, p.412) Los EEUU necesitan reconstruir un nuevo estilo de liderazgo global basado en su tradicional mensaje de libertad y democracia que pueda interpelar las esperanzas y necesidades actuales de la poblacion mundial. El desafío es global. En el corto plazo se trata de competencia económica, en el mediano plazo se trata del balance de poder y en el largo plazo se trata de liderar exitosamente una nueva transiciçon energética. En cada una de estas etapas es necesario tener presente que cada vez que un combustible natural fue reemplazado por otro, se debió a factores económicos de mercado y no al agotameinto de recursos. (1) Marion King Hubbert (1903 –1989), geólogo, se desempeño como geólogo en el laboratorio de investigación de la compañía Shellen Houston, Texas.(2) Listamos aquí los argumentos utilizados frecuentemente por los "optimistas" sin implicar esto el etiquetamiento de determinado investigador como tal. (3) He traducido el término Estimated Ultimate Recovery como "extracción ultima estimada".(4) Bakken oil shale fields(5) Gas Natural Licuado.(6) Maugeri: 2006, p 220.(7) Simmons. Citado en Doran: 2007 p. 236. También definido como: "…low in sulfur, near the surface, geographically close to markets and exportable." 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Communication for development is a comparatively new field that offers new tools and techniques to support inclusive and informed decisions in the planning and management of large water and energy infrastructure projects, including dams. Rethinking the approach to communication on dam projects is also timely in today's policy context. A window of opportunity has opened to tie in governance reform (including fighting corruption), poverty reduction, and communication with today's challenges in sustainable infrastructure development. Progress on any one of these aspects requires effective communication with stakeholders and interests. This handbook aims to help foster a 'communication culture' that will accommodate the wide range of stakeholder interests in dam planning and management in ways appropriate to the development context of today and the need to promote solutions to sustainability challenges. It seeks to create awareness among practitioners of the benefits and costs of improving the role of communication in infrastructure development. It also demonstrates how communication helps to improve governments' capacities to address corruption issues in infrastructure. Finally, this handbook is aimed at building the capacity of project teams and government officials to effectively adopt and adapt modern communication principles and tools to cover all stages of the dam project cycle.

Since the early 2000s, Tanzania has seen remarkable economic growth and strong resilience to external shocks. Yet these achievements were overshadowed by the slow response of poverty to the growing economy. Until 2007, the poverty rate in Tanzania remained stagnant at around 34 percent despite a robust growth at an annualized rate of approximately 7 percent. This apparent disconnect between growth and poverty reduction has raised concerns among policy makers and researchers, leading to a consensus that this mismatch needed to be addressed with a sense of urgency. Over the past few years, the National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (MKUKUTA) in Tanzania has given high priority to eradicating extreme poverty and promoting broad-based growth. Achieving pro-poor growth has also been widely recognized by the World Bank as a critical strategy for accelerating progress toward its twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty at the global level by 2030 and boosting shared prosperity by fostering income growth among the bottom 40 percent in every country. The official poverty figures announced by the government in November 2013 have revealed that the national strategy against poverty has begun to facilitate reductions. The basic needs poverty rate has declined from around 34 percent to 28.2 percent between 2007 and 2012, the first significant decline in the last 20 years. Identifying the policy mechanisms that have helped to increase the participation of the poor in the growth process and to speed pro-poor growth is therefore important for present and future decision-making in Tanzania on how best to eradicate poverty. Such task requires a rigorous analysis of the evolution of poverty and of the linkages between poverty, inequality, and economic growth. This report uses the availability of the new Tanzanian Household Budget Survey (HBS) for 2011 and 2012, as well as the new rebased GDP figures released in December 2014, as an opportunity to address these issues. More specifically, the report examines the recent trends in poverty and inequality and their determinants and explores how responsive poverty reduction was to economic growth and the obstacles to achieving it.

Pakistan is vulnerable to a number of adverse natural events and has experienced a wide range of disasters over the past 40 years, including floods, earthquakes, droughts, cyclones, and tsunamis. The World Bank is supporting the Government of Pakistan (GoP) in building capacity in the area of disaster risk management (DRM) in order to build resilience from both humanitarian and fiscal shocks associated with natural disasters. The World Bank is providing technical assistance to the GoP for the development of a national disaster risk financing strategy. This non-lending technical assistance aims to: (i) assess the fiscal exposure of the GoP to natural disasters; (ii) present options for the development of a national strategy to improve financial response capacity for natural disasters; and (iii) promote property catastrophe risk insurance for both public and private dwellings. Disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) is one of the five pillars in the proactive and strategic framework for DRM promoted by the World Bank. The World Bank has been promoting a proactive and strategic framework for DRM based on five pillars: (i) risk identification; (ii) risk reduction; (iii) preparedness; (iv) financial protection; and (v) resilient recovery. Chapter one is introduction. Chapter two presents an overview of the budget processes for the financing of natural disaster losses during each of the three post-disaster phases. Chapter three provides a preliminary financial disaster risk assessment for Pakistan, focusing particularly on the fiscal impact of natural disasters. Chapter four presents an overview of the private catastrophe insurance market; and chapter five reviews the options for future financing of natural disaster recovery and reconstruction expenditures.

Beginning in 2003, Turkey initiated a series of reforms under the Health Transformation Program (HTP) that over the past decade have reshaped the health system. Understanding the political economy of this process is important for the future of Universal Health Coverage (UHC) in Turkey, and also for many other countries and the development agencies that assist them. This report analyzes the historical context and complex political economy challenges of the reform. Our findings are based on stakeholder interviews and a review of literature. First, we identified five contextual factors that were important in bringing health reform to the policy agenda in Turkey, and were helpful in sustaining the reform during adoption and implementation: (1) a long history of reform plans and attempts; (2) fiscal pressure to reform the social sectors; (3) public support for health reform; (4) strong economic growth; and (5) favorable demographic conditions. Second, we assessed four political economy challenges central to the reform and the strategies used by the Ministry of Health (MoH) to overcome them. First, the MoH built public support for reform among the broad base of beneficiaries by focusing on highly visible and fast changes. Second, the MoH overcame well-organized interest group opposition to the reforms by splintering their support or delegitimizing their views. Third, Turkey asserted its own domestic priorities over those of the IMF and World Bank in cases of direct conflict. Fourth, the MoH circumvented potential political and institutional opposition to the large expansion of benefits and coverage through a carefully sequenced adoption and implementation plan that could be executed mostly without requiring the support of other ministries. This analysis also highlights important trade-offs made by the MoH with respect to the redistribution of resources, quality of care, financial sustainability, and physician satisfaction, which will all have to be considered as Turkey enters its next phase of health system development.

Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) in developing countries are typically considered to be severely credit constrained. Additionally, high business risks may partly explain why capital stocks of MSEs remain low. This article analyzes the determinants of capital stocks of MSEs in poor economies focusing on credit constraints and risk. The analysis is based on a unique, albeit cross sectional but backward looking, micro data set on MSEs covering the economic capitals of seven West-African countries. The main result is that capital market imperfections indeed seem to explain an important part of the variation in capital stocks in the early lifetime of MSEs. Furthermore, the analyses show that risk plays a key role for capital accumulation. Risk-averse individuals seem to adjust their initially low capital stocks upwards when enterprises grow older. MSEs in risky activities owned by wealthy individuals even seem to over-invest when they start their business and adjust capital stocks downwards subsequently. As other firms simultaneously suffer from capital shortages, such behavior may imply large inefficiencies.

The principal purpose of this Global Program Review (GPR) is to learn lessons from the experience of the Global Fund and its interaction with the Bank in three areas: (a) the design and operation of large global partnership programs like the Global Fund that are financing country-level investments, (b) the engagement of the World Bank with these partnership programs, and (c) the evaluation of these programs. The Review has an intensive focus on the Bank's engagement with the Global Fund at the country level because of the potential for competition or collaboration between Global Fund-supported activities and the Bank's lending operations at the country level. Therefore, it also focuses on the design and operation of the Global Fund-supported activities at the country level. This review was initiated before the high-level independent review panel on fiduciary controls and oversight mechanisms of the Global Fund was commissioned in February 2011, and it was drafted before their final report, turning the page from emergency to sustainability, was issued on September 19, 2011. While the two studies are complementary and overlap to some extent, they were conducted independently of each other, for different audiences, and for different purposes.

This paper investigates the dynamics of the informal sector in Madagascar during a period of fragile growth. Overall, the behavior of informal firms in terms of earnings, employment and capital accumulation points to a degree of heterogeneity which goes beyond a simple dualistic model and even a more refined model that would distinguish between an upper entrepreneurial and a lower subsistence tier within the informal sector. However, in line with the dualistic model, the informal sector indeed fulfills a labor absorbing function in times of crisis. During the growth period authors see capital accumulation in most of the sectors and lots of evidence that households expand their activities. However, this happens mainly through the creation of new firms instead of the expansion of existing ones, which is consistent with much higher returns at very low levels of capital. More rapid expansion can be observed in sectors that operate with lower capital intensity, which is also consistent with risk or credit constraints as major deterrents to expansion. While there is some indication that total factor productivity increased over time, returns to capital and labor where not higher at the end of the observation period than at the beginning. Returns are also rather low at high levels of capital. These findings point to a limited growth potential of the informal sector as a whole. The heterogeneity in capital returns hints at large inefficiencies in allocating capital across informal firms.

This report aims to assess the steps taken during Rwanda's transition following the genocide against the objective of the long-term durability of domestic peace. Its principal conclusion is that peace is most likely to endure if Rwanda's political space is gradually opened up to allow: (i) Rwanda's formal state institutions to establish greater autonomy from the current regime; and (ii) Rwandan political and civil society, its political opposition and media in particular, to evolve as mature and independent counterweights to the ruling party. Incremental political liberalization will encourage an important shift in Rwanda's political culture to one which encouraged accountability for the subordination of institutional rules to personal, party, or ethnic interests. It falls on the regime to show the way forward to Rwanda's civil and political society by demonstrating its tolerance for genuine political pluralism, dissent, and inclusion. It is in the regime's long-term strategic self-interest to encourage such a change in political culture and increase its legitimacy in order to discourage attempts to bring about regime change extra-constitutionally.

Social funds represent a diverse universe of World Bank projects. Social funds are defined as agencies or programs that channel grants to communities for small scale development projects. Social funds typically finance some mixture of socio economic infrastructure (e.g. building or rehabilitating schools, health centers, water supply systems,), productive investments (e.g. micro?finance and income generating projects), social services (e.g. supporting nutrition campaigns, literacy programs, youth training, support to the elderly and disabled), and capacity building programs (e.g., training for community based organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and local governments). Social Fund programs are demand driven and aim to involve the active participation of several local actors, often using a community driven development approach. The main goal is usually to address the needs of poor and vulnerable communities while building social capital and empowerment at the local level. Social funds have several features that place them in the social protection (SP) realm. They typically target poor communities and/or vulnerable households. They finance social risk management interventions like temporary employment generation and expanded access to basic services by the poorest. Social funds are often employed to address immediate post?conflict needs and responses to natural disasters.

Moldova has suffered over the last two decades from rising poverty, territorial secession, armed conflict, and the spillover effects of a regional financial crisis, with declining population size and life expectancy, and an economy approximately one-half of what it was in 1990. The return of the Moldovan Communist Party (PCRM), which won two major elections after 2001, contributed to increasing centralization of governmental authority along with a reform agenda that emphasized greater state control over the economy, fiscal support to state enterprises and collective farms, land consolidation, economic protectionism, and the tolerance of monopolies in industry and energy. At the same time, the government has increased social expenditures, and taken major steps to improve public financial management. Bank engagement was moderately effective at the country and project levels, and substantially effective at the sector level. There was progress in several aspects of public financial management (PFM). Regulatory streamlining has reduced costs to business, although resistance to civil service reform has left much work to be done. The Bank has also helped achieve progress on Governance and Anticorruption (GAC) issues in primary education, roads, and private sector development. Education progress is highly uneven across regions, for example, overweight trucks continue to tear up roads, and private investment is not enough to make a dent in high unemployment. A graduated approach to country systems and road sector technical audits help address GAC issues at the project level. The overall impact of GAC strategy implementation was moderate. The GAC committees set up at the regional and sectoral Bank department levels are particularly useful mechanisms for disseminating practices from the GAC Council. Staff has been proactive in using Country Governance and Anticorruption (CGAC) resources. However, three applications for window one funding were not approved, reducing the ability of this small program to seize opportunities.