Tanzania continues to stand out as a model of sound economic performance in the African continent, with a growth rate of over six per cent in 2011 and 2012, surpassing other regional economies and demonstrating impressive resilience to the global economic crisis. This is the second issue of the Tanzania economic update series. The series aim to engage a broad audience in a discussion of the state of the economy in general, as well as in specific debates of topical importance in Tanzania. The current issue seeks to get the discussion going on how to achieve the structural transformation of the rural economy so that rural households can also benefit from the country's remarkable growth performance.
The paper is based on a scenario workshop held on January 20, 2009, where leading financial and private sector development experts from IFC, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank discussed the unfolding crisis. This paper is a product of the staff of the Financial and Private Sector Development Vice Presidency of the World Bank Group. The scenarios described in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The scenarios described serve as the basis of a planning exercise and are not to be interpreted as forecasts or projections on the part of the World Bank Group or the authors of this paper. The purpose of this paper is to sketch scenarios taking into account the information currently at hand. In this way, scenarios can provide decision makers with alternative views of the future. Decision makers can test their strategies against the different ways in which the future might play out. Scenarios provide a framework for debate, leading to better policy making and strategies. They are especially useful in situations where major global changes are under way but there is huge uncertainty over what may happen. Staffs of the World Bank Group are providing these scenarios to help governments and organizations prepare for an uncertain future. Being well prepared and open to thinking about different outcomes is much better than continually being behind the curve and having to chase events.
Indonesia's economic performance through mid-2011 has been positive. Solid growth has been accompanied by further portfolio capital and foreign direct investment inflows. Public and financial sector balance sheets remain strong. However, events over the past quarter serve as a reminder of a number of Indonesia's ongoing policy challenges. At the same time, the launch of the government's master plan 2011-2025 has focused attention on the investments and policy reforms which can help Indonesia reach its future growth potential. Finally, heightened international risk aversion originating from the Greek debt crisis, and the potential market implications of any haircut, were it to occur, are a reminder of the external shocks which could prompt reversals of short-term capital flows to Indonesia. However, events over the past quarter are a reminder of the current challenges which are faced and the need to put in place, and implement, the policies and investments necessary for Indonesia to reach its potential as a leading global growth driver of the next few decades.
Russia has seen even higher oil windfall in the past few months, which translates into likely fiscal surpluses this year and next. The government should not miss the opportunity provided by a large oil windfall to substantially improve its long-term fiscal position, further reduce inflation, and, therefore, ensure a strong basis for durable stability and healthy growth in the future. Rising domestic demand and credit activity are increasingly supporting solid growth. Overall, labor market conditions improved recently while poverty was broadly flat during and after the crisis, but unemployment and poverty in many regions remain difficult. Further reductions in poverty will require greater policy focus and persistence in implementing more effective and targeted programs, especially in the poorest regions. Two new special-topic analyses focus on export diversification in Russia, and food and energy inflation in Europe and Central Asia region. In the first, results show that productivity is the key to exports and that lack of competition and entrepreneurial innovation are relevant obstacles to the emergence of new, potentially exportable products. In the second, it is shown that food and energy prices in Russia and other countries in Europe and Central Asia are contributing significantly to consumer price inflation, complicating anti-inflation policy and poverty reduction.
Indonesian financial sector comprises banks, multi-finance companies, capital market companies, insurance companies, and pension funds. The banking sector accounts for about 80 percent of the financial sector assets. It is dominated by 121 commercial banks, which account for about 98.6 percent of total banking assets (including 5 sharia banks accounting for 1.8 percent market share), with rural banks comprising the remainder of the banking system (about 1.4 percent market share). Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, is responsible for regulation and supervision of the banking system. The assessment of compliance with the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision (BCP) was carried out within the framework of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) between September 29 and October 16, 2009.
Backed by sound economic policies and until the global crisis, a buoyant global economy, many developing countries made significant movement toward achieving the 2015millennium Development Goals (MDGs), particularly those for poverty reduction, gender parity in education, and reliable access to safe water. But even before the global economic crisis, progress in achieving some MDGs, especially those on child and maternal mortality, primary school completion, hunger, and sanitation, was lagging. The global food, fuel and economic crises have set back progress to the MDGs. An estimated 64 million more people are living on less than $1.25/day than there would have been without the crisis. The challenges ahead are achieving the MDGs requires a vibrant global economy, powered by strong, sustainable, multi-polar growth, underpinned by sound policies and reform at the country level; improving access for the poor to health, education, affordable food, trade, finance, and basic infrastructure is key to accelerating progress to the MDGs; developing countries need to continue to strengthen resilience to global volatility in order to protect gains and sustain progress toward the MDGs; the international community must renew its commitment to reach the 'bottom billion', particularly those in fragile and conflict-affected countries; and global support for a comprehensive development agenda including through the G20 process is critical. In the wake of recent global crises, and with the 2015 deadline approaching, business as usual is not enough to meet the MDGs.
This paper provides a synthetic overview of the link between food insecurity and conflict, addressing both traditional (civil and interstate war) and emerging (regime stability, violent rioting and communal conflict) threats to security and political stability. In addition, it addresses the various attempts by national governments, intergovernmental organizations, and civil society to address food insecurity and, in particular, the link with conflict. It begins with a discussion of the various effects of food insecurity for several types of conflict, and discusses the interactions among political, social, and demographic factors that may exacerbate these effects. It then discusses the capabilities of states, international markets, intergovernmental organizations, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to break the link between food security and conflict by focusing on mechanisms that can shield both food consumers and producers from short-term price instability. Finally, it discusses projected trends in both food insecurity and conflict and concludes with some brief comments on policies that can build resilience in light of projections of higher and volatile food prices and a changing climate.
Amid heightened global uncertainties, Russia is experiencing a bumpy recovery. Domestic demand is rising, but unemployment remains high, and credit and investment remain limited. The budget has benefited from higher oil prices, but fiscal consolidation remains important in the medium term. Crumbling infrastructure, especially in transport, could hamper the economy's competitiveness and longer-term growth prospects. The debt crisis in Western Europe sharpens the downside risks to global recovery and oil prices. But the effects on Russia are likely to be blunted by its stronger fiscal and debt positions and by limited trade and financial links with the affected countries. Russia is likely to grow by 4.5 percent in 2010, followed by 4.8 percent in 2011, as domestic demand expands in line with gradual improvements in the labor and credit markets. Employment is expected to improve gradually, however, enabling some further reductions in poverty.
Although economic reform has brought remarkable progress in poverty reduction in Vietnam, the scale and depth of ethnic minority poverty in Vietnam presents one of the major challenges to achieving the targets for poverty reduction set out in the Socio-Economic Development Plan, as well as the millennium development goals. The authors first review a series of monetary and non-monetary indicators which show the living standards of the ethnic minorities are improving but still lag seriously behind those of the majority Kinh-Hoa. The minorities' lower living standards result from the complex interplay of overlapping disadvantages, which start in utero and continue until adult life. Next an analysis of the drivers of the ethnic gap, in terms of both differences in characteristics and differences in returns to those characteristics, is undertaken. Mean and quantile decompositions show that at least a half of the gap in per capita expenditure can be attributed to the lower returns to characteristics that the ethnic minorities receive. The reasons underlying such differences in returns are discussed, drawing on both quantitative analysis and the large number of qualitative studies on ethnic issues in Vietnam. Finally, some of the short and longer term policy measures which the authors believe could help to counter ethnic disadvantages in the nutrition, education, and employment sectors are discussed. The authors also emphasize the importance of promoting growth that is geographically broad and socially inclusive without which, the current disparities between the Kinh-Hoa and the ethnic minorities will continue to grow.
BACKGROUND: Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990–2007 and 2007–2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance. RESULTS: Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990–2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007–2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Foreword -- Preface / Fredric Michael Litto -- The reconfiguration of human relations in the connected society : thoughts and ideas -- Living inside the net : the primacy of interactions and processes / Brasilina Passarelli, School of Communications and Arts, ECA of the University of São Paulo, USP, Brazil, Francisco Paletta, School of Communications and Arts, ECA of the University of São Paulo - USP, Brazil -- Critics about the convergence culture / Andres Kalikoske, University of Rio dos Sinos Valley, Brazil -- The extensive communications to hybridism and "animaverbivocovisualidade" (av3) / Antonio Miranda, University of Brasília, Brazil -- Elmira luzia simeão, University of Brasília, Brazil -- Digital inclusion : from connectivity to the development of information culture / Aurora Cuevas Cerveró, Complutense University of Madrid, Spain -- Why the institutional access digital divide might be more significant than the home broadband divide / Joseph Dean Straubhaar, the University of Texas at Austin, United States of America -- Digital inclusion projects in Brazil -- Digital inclusion, crowdsourcing and crowdfunding in Brazil: a brief review / Beatrice Bonami Rosa, Digital Culture Observatory at the School of the Future Research Laboratory, Brazil, Maria Lujan Túbio, Post Doctoral Student at ECA -- From information society to community service : the birth of e citizenship / Benedito Medeiros Neto, University of Brasília, Brazil -- -- Digital inclusion and computational thinking : new challenges and opportunities for media professionals / Rafael Vergili, Digital Culture Observatory at the School of the Future Research Laboratory, USP, Brazil / Walter Teixeira Lima, Methodist University of São Paulo, Brazil -- Digital inclusion and public policies in Brazil / Drica Guzzi, School of the Future Research Laboratory, USP, Brazil -- E-portfolios as tools for collaborative learning on digital platforms / Ana Claudia Loureiro, School of the Future Research Laboratory, USP, Brazil, Cristina Zukovsky-Tavares, Faculty of Education, University of São Paulo, Brazil -- Connectedyouthbrazil research : youngsters emerging literacies in a hyperconnected society / Brasilina Passarelli, School of the Future Research Laboratory, USP, Brazil, Fabiana Grieco Cabral de Mello Vetritti, Digital Culture Observatory at the School of the Future Research Laboratory, USP, Brazil -- "Stop phubbing me!" : a case study on mobile media and interpersonal relationships in Brazil / Alan César Belo Angeluci, University of São Paulo, Brazil -- Brazil 4d interactive content production for digital television : a experience of interactive content production for digital television / Cristiana Freitas G. de Araujo, University of Brasília, Brazil, Cosette Spindola de Castro, Catholic University of Brasília, Brazil -- Digital literacies and teachers learning proccess / Hélio Antônio Junqueira, Digital Culture Observatory at the School of the Future Research Laboratory, USP, Brazil -- Netnography of digital inclusion : a study about interactivity and emergent literacies in the acessasp program / Rodrigo Eduardo-Francisco Botelho, Digital Culture Observatory at the School of the Future Research Laboratory, USP, Brazil -- Critical analysis of an amazon program of digital inclusion : navegapará in the city of Belém, Brazil / Waléria de Melo Magalhães, Federal University of Pará, Brazil, Marianne Kogut Eliasquevici, Federal University of Pará, Brazil / Benedito de Jesus Pinheiro Ferreira, federal University of Pará, Brazil -- Digital inclusion projects in Europe -- Information policies : agenda for digital inclusion in the European Union / Maria Teresa Fernández-Bajón, Complutense University of Madrid, Spain -- Institutional policies for digital inclusion in Spain / Maria-Jesús Colmenero-Ruiz, Carlos III University Madrid, Spain, Belén Pérez- Lorenzo, Carlos III University Madrid, Spain -- Trends in information literacy programs to empower people and communities / José-Antonio Gómez-Hernández, University of Murcia, Spain, Tomás Saorín, University of Murcia, Spain -- Technologies for digital inclusion : good practices dealing with diversity / Jorge Morato, Carlos III University Madrid, Spain, Alejandro Ruiz-Robles, University of Piura, Spain, Sonia Sanchez-Cuadrado, Jot Internet Media, Spain, Miguel Angel Marzal, Carlos III University Madrid, Spain -- Discussion on digital inclusion good practices at Europés libraries / María-Jesús Colmenero-Ruiz, Carlos III University Madrid, Spain -- Digital inclusion projects in Americas -- The geography of digital literacy : mapping communications technology training programs in Austin, Texas / Stuart Davis, the University of Texas at Austin, United States of America, Lucia Palmer, the University of texas at Austin, United States of America, Julian Etienne Gomez, the University of Texas at austin, United states of America -- Informational literacy as key element in social and digital inclusion policies in Mexico / Javier Tarango, Autonomous University of Chihuahua, Mexico, Celia Mireles-Cárdenas, autonomous university of San Luis Potosi, Mexico -- Digital revolution in Latin America for beyond technologies / Maria Cristina Gobbi, State University of São Paulo - Julio de Mesquita Filho - UNESP, Brazil, Francisco Machado Filho, State University of São Paulo - Julio de Mesquita Filho - UNESP, Brazil -- Technological illusion and educational resistances : the public discourse about olpc in Peru and its policy failure / Eduardo Villanueva-Mansilla, Pontifical Catholic University in Peru, Peru -- Digital inclusion programs in South America : plan ceibal and digital inclusion in Mercosur countries / María Gladys Ceretta, University of the Republic, Uruguay, Javier alfredo Canzani, University of the Republic, Uruguay -- Comparative approaches of igi-global collection / Joseph Dean Straubhaar, The University of Texas at Austin, United States of America
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For his tax reform by cutting a thousand things to pass into being, Republican Gov. Jeff Landry must avoid its death by a thousand cuts.
Months ago, Landry began stumping for large-scale tax reform to ensconce a more rationale and efficient fiscal structure in Louisiana that will encourage economic growth. The current system's complexity, favoritism to certain entities, and inflexibility that encourages outsized government has for decades dampened economic development prospects.
Apparently satisfied he has something effective that can become law or part of the Constitution, he has signaled early next month he will call the Legislature into special session for a couple of weeks or so, which means he must issue the call this week. His Department of Revenue with an assist from the Legislative Fiscal Office has produced eight pieces of model legislation and fiscal analyses of each, totaling 385 pages of changes that forecasts overall state government revenues won't change materially but likely positively in the short term.
An independent analysis from a consortium of three government accountability interest groups styling themselves Reset Louisiana produced a positive conclusion from a review of sales and income tax changes insofar as state finances were affected. It reports that the income tax becomes modestly more progressive, and the sales tax becomes slightly less regressive as a result of the proposed changes, and in considering the changes to income and sales taxes the vast majority of Louisiana citizens will see a significant tax cut. Of those that do not – at the very lowest end of income and certain high gross income filers with large amounts of deductions – those at lowest income end would expect to pay less than $30 more a year. Nonresidents may see significantly higher total taxes.
That bodes well for the package's success, but the bar is high that could give outnumbered opponents enough leverage to deny that. Most, if not all, of the legislation necessary will require two-thirds supermajorities in the Legislature because constitutional changes or elimination of tax exemptions are scattered throughout, with at least one bill as well needing ratification by the public as a constitutional amendment.
Given the interconnectedness of these, substantial change in any bill or its defeat basically brings down the whole package. And, given little if any expected support from Democrats, Landry can afford almost no GOP legislator defections to win the day.
Three distinct interests will try to put the squeeze on to pick off a few Republicans. One is the political left, who sees the reforms' potential to right-size government and reduce dependency on government that it prefers. They will try to make the specious argument that a few of the poor won't pay less in taxes and of those that do higher earners will receive a bigger break. With almost all in absolute terms paying less and the very few who aren't either being wealthier or hardly paying, hopefully conservative legislators won't fall for such a weak class warfare argument.
More threateningly, businesses mainly in the service industry might try to scuttle one or two bills dealing with expansion of sales taxes. The overall plan, exchanging lower income tax bills practically for every filer for making a permanent the 2018 sales tax increase and expanding designated services that must collect sales taxes from eight to 49, will draw concern from those that purvey the 41 new taxed services who could pressure lawmakers to exempt them.
Yet perhaps the biggest threat comes from parishes and municipalities and perhaps other local taxing authorities, who will see their abilities to tax sales of prescription drugs and manufacturing machinery equipment disappear and must be convinced broadening the base won't materially affect their revenues. A particular subset, those that have the state offset a large amount of inventory taxes paid by filers within their border – inventories comprise at least a quarter of property assessments in over a half-dozen parishes – will be hesitant to support putting into law a deal that could lead to the end of that subsidy, which would discourage economic investment, in exchange for a one-time large bonus payment. Just a handful of the highest-subsidized parishes – in some places, a single businesses thus its local governments can reap millions of dollars from this tax credit – could convince their local delegations to excise that part thus derailing everything.
So far, the Landry Administration has done an excellent job of publicizing the changes and making the case for them. But its margin for error is small. To keep the heat off any legislator prone to support this reform from succumbing to opposing even a small part, whether it succeeds in this will depend on how well it rebuts these arguments against and it reassures the change will have a net positive impact in the long run.
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At a time when all three major nuclear powers are upgrading their nuclear arsenals, when Russian leader Vladimir Putin has threatened that there are circumstances in which he would consider using such weapons in Ukraine, and when the one remaining U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control agreement is hanging by a thread, the last thing the world needs is an accelerated nuclear arms race. But someone forgot to tell the Heritage Foundation, which just issued a report that, if implemented, would spark a nuclear competition that would rival the worst days of the Cold War. The Heritage report summarizes its proposed nuclear buildup as follows: "These expansions will include a larger ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) force, additional warheads on America's ground-based strategic deterrent, and a modest road-mobile variant of the ground-based strategic deterrent. In the immediate term, the United States will upload non-strategic nuclear warheads from the ready reserve stockpile to existing theater capabilities." Beyond its jargon-laced call for more nuclear weapons, the Heritage report makes the jaw dropping claim that its proposal to expand most elements of the U.S. nuclear force is just a "modest" increase. Indeed, the document suggests that its proposal to deploy more nuclear weapons of more types on land and sea should be the first step towards an even larger buildup that will have to wait until there are enough new nuclear production facilities available. Nukes without end, anyone? The stated rationale for this dangerous buildup is that the nuclear landscape has changed dramatically in recent years, most notably due to the possibility of facing not one but two nuclear rivals with comparable arsenals — Russia, and now China. But it's not obvious that an unrestrained buildup is the best way to address this challenge, should it actually materialize. The Heritage report asserts that its proposals are meant to prevent rather than spark a nuclear conflict. But it doubles down on the current nuclear "triad" of land, air, and sea-based nuclear weapons — a destabilizing posture that makes a nuclear conflict more likely. In particular, as experts from former defense secretary William Perry to the late Daniel Ellsberg have pointed out, keeping the land-based element of the triad — intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) — increases nuclear risks. That's because possessing land-based missiles means that a president would have to decide whether to launch them in a matter of minutes upon warning of an attack, thereby increasing the possibility of an accidental nuclear war triggered by a false alarm. Instead of proposing to eliminate ICBMs, the Heritage report suggests making them mobile, an idea that was proposed by the Reagan administration in the 1980s and referred to as the "MX missile" — later, and apparently without irony, called the "Peacekeeper." The idea of mobile basing was ultimately abandoned due to a combination of technical challenges and opposition by ranchers and other residents of Western states where the MX was to be located. Going to the expense and political turmoil that a revival of an MX-style system would entail makes no sense given that land-based missiles serve no useful defensive purpose. Suggesting that the United States pursue a scheme that is as unworkable now as it was 40 years ago clearly demonstrates that the Heritage report is mired in the past, even as it claims to be putting forward a future-focused plan. Producing more nuclear weapons on the U.S. side will not convince China to rein in its nuclear expansion. More likely it will convince Beijing to build even more nuclear weapons of its own. The net result will be an escalating arms race that will leave both sides more vulnerable. A non-military approach is desperately needed. Unfortunately, Washington has rebuffed Beijing's proposal to adopt a mutual commitment to forswear using nuclear weapons first in a conflict, refusing to even discuss it. A better way forward, proposed in a new issue brief representing the joint views of the Institute for Policy Studies, Justice is Global, and the Quincy Institute, would be to start serious arms control discussions between the U.S. and China in the context of other efforts to reduce tensions in their relationship. Even if talks don't yield immediate results, they could set the stage for an agreement down the road. The Heritage report underscores how far the U.S. has regressed since the days when Ronald Reagan embraced the idea of sharp reductions in nuclear arsenals and George Bush the elder ordered tactical nuclear weapons to be removed from U.S. surface ships — not as a favor to our adversaries but because it made America and the world a safer place. Rather than re-run a Cold War-style nuclear arms competition, Washington should be seeking ways to reduce tensions with its biggest rivals. The policies proposed by the Heritage Foundation would almost certainly do the opposite.
