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Associate Director of Global Networks and Inclusion Maya Ranganath reflects on the goals, outcomes, and key learnings of this summer's 11th annual Africa Evidence Summit in Nairobi. The Summit would not be possible without our partners: the Network of Impact Evaluation Researchers in Africa, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and many others mentioned in the post below.https://medium.com/media/f17cd8514f9c798ca99f083c6c2054d7/hrefLow and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) disproportionately experience the world's greatest challenges — climate change, food security, and rampant inequality. Effective solutions to these problems must be evidence-informed and inclusive of scholars living in these countries. However, many LMICs face a shortage of researchers — only two percent of the world's research output is produced by African scholars. The evidence-informed policy community has marshaled significant momentum to address this problem and invest in LMIC research infrastructure. In fact, a recent report from the Center for Global Development identified a 26 percent increase in organizations with impact evaluation capacity since 2019. The Africa Evidence Summit, co-hosted by CEGA and the Network of Impact Evaluation Researchers in Africa (NIERA) this summer, further showcased this progress.Now with more than a decade of momentum, the Summit returned to Nairobi for its largest gathering yet: In a signal of the demand for more rigorous and locally-led evidence on what works to combat poverty, more than 500 researchers, policymakers, and practitioners attended. As every year, the Summit had four goals:Elevate the voices of African scholarsDisseminate new research findings to decision-makersSeed new collaborationsGenerate insights to advance evidence-informed policymaking and, specifically, ways to make the ecosystem more inclusiveTo this end, the Summit featured 21 research presentations from CEGA affiliated faculty, our fellows network, and partners (see here for a full list of presentations). It also included several panels that focused on meta-themes, including:Incentives, resources, and pathways for African-led publicationFunder perspectives on supporting African-led researchSupporting pro-poor growth in sub-Saharan Africa (led by event partner African Economic Research Consortium)Centering African voices in policy-making and advocacy (led by event partner Afrobarometer)Below we present some key insights from the event. Please see our takeaways document for more information.Evidence must be generated by, and in partnership with, local researchers…"To claim the 21st century as the turning point for Africa, African experts and scholars should step up to define, own, and drive the continent's development agenda," said Dr. Eliya Zulu, Executive Director of the African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP), in his keynote address.Summit co-host NIERA (comprised of alumni of CEGA's fellowship program) is leading this movement as the first all-African network of evidence generators. But greater investment is needed.As Rose Oronje, AFIDEP Director of Public Policy and Knowledge Translation and Head of Kenya Office, discussed, the low rate of publications by African scholars reflects a need for greater investments by governments in research infrastructure. Constantine Manda, 2012 CEGA Fellow and Assistant Professor at UC Irvine added, "We need to reform our institutions — for not just the number of publications, but the quality of them." "The incentive structure is broken and something needs to change," noted Chris Chibwana, Program Officer at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.…which requires re-aligning incentives, investing in research capacity, and collaborating.A variety of solutions were proposed. Oronje suggested including more editors from Africa on journals, "as they will be looking at research differently because they understand the context." Aurelia Munene, founder of Eider Africa, proposed engaging NGOs to complement African universities, training new faculty on supervision, and "providing researchers with a sense of belonging." Jordan Kyongo, Head of the East Africa Research & Innovation Hub at the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), added that "universities must support an enabling environment for students to [become] researchers." Manda urged scholars in high-income countries to "ask for invitations to present work to an African audience" to expose students to new research methods, insights, and questions.In this vein, collaboration is not only an important driver of innovation but also the keystone in inclusive evidence generation. The growing group of impact evaluators, big data researchers, and other evidence generators in LMICs relies on a close-knit community for intellectual partnership, capacity building, evidence dissemination, and funding. Indeed, the Summit would not have succeeded without its local partners (NIERA, AFIDEP, Afrobarometer, AERC, Busara, among others) and the many talented researchers who presented posters.From left to right: CEGA Fellows Jonathan Izudi, Bezawit Bahru, and Michel Ndayikeza listen to a presentation at AES 2023 | Luft VenturesEvidence is essential, but insufficient alone, for policy changeThe summit featured many research studies aimed to assist decision-makers to support vulnerable communities. A few highlights include:CEGA Faculty Co-Director Ted Miguel's study on the intergenerational impacts of child health investments in East Africa, which shows that deworming school children decreases under-five mortality in the children of those dewormed by one-fifth.A randomized control trial presented by Youth Impact's Thato Letsomo demonstrated that the ConnectEd intervention, which sends children a weekly math problem and provides tutoring phone calls, improved learning in Uganda by more than a standard year of schooling.University of Ghana's Edward Asiedu's study found that providing patients with information on their insurance coverage reduces their out-of-pocket expenditure on health.2021 CEGA Fellow Mary Nantongo's early-stage design to evaluate the impact of Uganda's Parish Development Model on the poverty levels, incomes, and participation in decision-making of beneficiary households.However, Dr. Zulu made a powerful point, saying "Evidence is essential, but not sufficient for policy. Researchers need to understand the key people and decisions being made in order to help." Building on this, Tricia Ryan from USAID led a presentation on evidence gap maps, a visual tool that identifies where more evidence is needed on a particular research subject. 2020 CEGA Fellow and Director of Research at the International Center for Evaluation and Development (ICED) Solomon Zena Walelign presented his evidence gap map, which found that more research is needed on how infrastructure interacts with the nutritional needs of people in LMICs, especially women, girls, and low-income consumers.CEGA's long history of working to shift norms in development economics toward greater leadership by African scholars has produced significant results. The Africa Evidence Summit reflects that growth, and we are excited to harness this community's momentum to advance our shared goals. Sign up for our Global Networks newsletter to hear first about next year's Summit.Supporting an inclusive evidence ecosystem: Insights from the 2023 Africa Evidence Summit was originally published in CEGA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Jeffrey A. Singer


Last weekend the American Medical Association House of Delegates passed a resolution tacitly claiming that the National Residency Matching Program (NRMP) is likely anti‐​competitive and a violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890. The resolution concluded:
RESOLVED, That our American Medical Association study alternatives to the current residency and fellowship Match process which would be less restrictive on free market competition for applicants. (Directive to Take Action)

This is quite surprising, given that the AMA was a co‐​defendant, along with the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME), the American Hospital Association (AHA), and several teaching hospitals in a 2002 antitrust class action lawsuit brought by Dr. Paul Jung (Jung v. AAMC) on behalf of current and former residents.
As Eastern Virginia Medical School Professor Bryan Carmody explains in his blog and this very well‐​produced video, the NRMP system established in the 1950s has since been the only way that medical school graduates may seek positions in residency programs. The program was established by the AAMC and National Student Internship Committee and supported by the AMA. It provides a centralized application process that matches applicants with residency programs using a mathematical algorithm designed to maximize the preferences of both parties. The NRMP eliminated and replaced the process where medical school graduates negotiated residency positions and salaries at various institutions. The NRMP ended any negotiation process. Each residency program participating in the NRMP pays all its residents in all specialties the same salary. Medical school graduates have no other options for seeking residency positions outside the NRMP.
Dr. Jung and co‐​plaintiffs argued that all this violates antitrust law. Many legal scholars believed the plaintiffs had a strong case as their lawsuit moved forward. As the defendants' prospects of acquittal began to fade, the AMA and the NRMP engaged in a public relations campaign to "save the match." Eventually, the AAMC, AHS, and the AMA lobbied successfully to get Congress to attach a last‐​minute rider–without debate–to the 2004 Pension Funding Equity Act, co‐​sponsored by Senators Edward Kennedy (D‑MA) and Judd Gregg (R‑NH). The rider, entitled "Confirmation of Antitrust Status of Graduate Medical Resident Matching Programs," exempted the NRMP from the Sherman Antitrust Act:
It is the purpose of this section to—
(A) confirm that the antitrust laws do not prohibit sponsoring, conducting, or participating in a graduate medical education residency matching program, or agreeing to do so; and
(B) ensure that those who sponsor, conduct or participate in such matching programs are not subjected to the burden and expense of defending against litigation that challenges such matching programs under the antitrust laws.

Every state and the District of Columbia require medical school graduates to complete at least one year of a residency program (residency programs range from 3 to 7 years) and pass Step 3 of the standardized national licensing exam (USMLE for MDs and COMLEX for DOs) to get a license to practice as a general practitioner. As Cato Research Associate Spencer Pratt and I detail in our recent policy brief:
Since the early 1950s, hospitals and medical centers that offer postgraduate training (residency) programs have been participating in the National Resident Matching Program (NRMP), which matches graduating medical students with available residency programs. Many medical school graduates do not match with positions in accredited programs because the number of residency slots available has not increased at the same rate as the number of medical students. The graduates are stuck in limbo, unable to apply the knowledge and clinical skills acquired with their doctorate degrees to care for patients while also being unable to further hone and develop those clinical skills with postgraduate training. According to the American Medical Association, in 2021, roughly 7 percent of doctor of medicine graduates and 10 percent of doctor of osteopathy graduates found themselves in that state of limbo.

Our brief discusses how Missouri lawmakers addressed this problem by licensing a new category of health care practitioner called Assistant Physician (AP). Already having received their doctorates in medicine, these graduates are essentially apprentice physicians. They work under the supervision of collaborating licensed medical doctors. Missouri launched this innovation in 2017. Missouri allows APs to annually renew their licenses without limits.
Since then, several other states have followed Missouri's lead by enabling APs to render primary care services to patients. Unfortunately, unlike Missouri, under intense lobbying from state chapters of the American Academy of Family Physicians (AAFP) and the American Medical Association, lawmakers in those states have limited the number of times an AP may renew a license. In some cases the AP license is only good for one year. The AAFP and AMA have convinced many state lawmakers that an AP should only serve as a "bridge year" to allow medical school graduates an opportunity to gain experience and income while waiting to enter the next year's match. Idaho, for example, only grants a one‐​year, non‐​renewable license to APs.
The recent AMA resolution calls for the organization to study alternatives to the current matching system that "would be less restrictive on free market competition for applicants."
We agree. In the "Recommendations" section of our policy brief, Spencer Pratt and I state:
State lawmakers should enable medical school graduates to use their experience as APs as an alternative pathway to unrestricted licensure as GPs. If one or two years of residency plus passing Step 3 of the USMLE qualifies physicians in most states to practice medicine as GPs, then three or more years of experience as an AP and passing the same exam should suffice as well.
The AP to GP alternative pathway could lead to innovations in how specialty boards certify clinicians. For example, GPs who wish to specialize nowadays apply to specialty residency training programs. When they complete residency training, they take standardized specialty examinations and seek certification from specialty boards such as the American Board of Internal Medicine, the American Board of Family Medicine, the American Board of Pediatrics, and the American Board of Obstetrics and Gynecology. Thus, increasing the number of GPs might incentivize some certifying organizations to develop alternative pathways to certification that place greater emphasis on real‐​world experience. Certifying organizations might even develop various levels of certification based on applicants' backgrounds and experience.
Increasing the supply of APs and, in turn, GPs, while promoting innovation in specialty certification would increase primary health care access and choice.

If the AMA seriously seeks redemption from its past anti‐​competitive transgressions, supporting this alternative pathway would be a good place to start.

In all matters regarding climate change, the modern world presents complex challenges which highlight how investments in infrastructure have as of yet been inconclusive. Th e emission percentages calculated by relevant studies demonstrate the need for long-term investments in infrastructures, to ultimately reduce the impact on the environment and our health. To this end, in alignment with the principles expressed in the Paris Agreement – reducing global warming and incentivising a zero-emission transportation system – and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), these new infrastructures will require a structural change that can be guaranteed by multilateral development banks (MDBs), given their nature, especially within developing countries. 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Es ist bekannt, dass die Natur und ihre Bestandteile das menschliche Wohlbefinden auf positive und negative Weise beeinflusst. Die Natur kann für den Menschen nützlich sein, indem sie beispielsweise Nahrung, Erholung oder Inspiration bietet. Naturkatastrophen oder übertragene Krankheiten sind andererseits Beispiele für den schädlichen oder nachteiligen Beitrag der Natur zum menschlichen Wohlbefinden. Solche positiven wie auch negativen Auswirkungen wurden von der Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES, Deutsch: Weltbiodiversitätsrat) als Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) bezeichnet und können in drei verschiedene Kategorien von NCP eingeteilt werden: regulierende, materielle und nicht-materielle NCP. Regulierende NCP sind wichtige strukturelle und unterstützende Funktionen der Natur, die Umweltprozesse steuern oder beeinflussen (z.B. Luftreinigung, Nährstoffkreislauf). Materielle NCP sind Substanzen oder Rohstoffe aus der Natur, die die physische Existenz von Menschen direkt unterstützen und materielle Güter (z.B. Nahrung, Holz) bereitstellen. Dahingegen decken nicht-materielle NCP die immateriellen Dimensionen des menschlichen Wohlergehens ab und betreffen u.a. physische und psychische Gesundheit, Lernerfahrungen, Inspiration, Spiritualität oder die Identität des Menschen. Nicht-materielle NCP können u.a. durch verschiedene Aktivitäten und Aufenthalte in der Natur (z.B. Besuch im Park, Wald oder Naturschutzgebiet) ausgelöst werden. Während die regulierenden und die materiellen NCP umfassend untersucht wurden, ist die Forschung zu nicht-materiellen NCP im Vergleich dazu weniger verbreitet, insbesondere im Hinblick auf die nicht-materiellen NCP von Biodiversität und Wildtieren. Ziel dieser Dissertation ist es daher, die nicht-materiellen Auswirkungen von Biodiversität und Wildtieren auf das menschliche Wohlergehen besser zu beleuchten. Diese Dissertation präsentiert die Ergebnisse von drei Studien in drei einzelnen Kapiteln (K 1, 2 & 3, Englisch: CH 1, 2, & 3). Forschungsfragen und Zielstellung Im ersten Kapitel (K1) erstelle ich eine systematische Literaturübersicht (Englisch: "review") über die nicht-materiellen Auswirkungen bzw. NCP der Wildtiere. Eine umfassende Zusammenfassung der aktuellen wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnisse ist entscheidend um besser zu verstehen, wie Wildtiere das menschliche Wohlbefinden beeinflussen und relevant, weil Interaktionen zwischen Menschen und Wildtieren oft zum täglichen Leben vieler Menschen gehören (z.B. Vögel füttern). Nicht-materielle NCP von Wildtieren (im weiteren Verlauf abgekürzt durch WCP) können sowohl positive als auch negative Auswirkungen auf das menschliche Wohlbefinden haben. Insgesamt gibt es jedoch nur wenige Übersichtsarbeiten, die sowohl die positiven als auch die negativen Auswirkungen von WCP in Kombination untersuchen. Hinzu kommt, dass die geringe Anzahl solcher Studien meist nur wenige Aspekte des menschlichen Wohlbefindens abdecken oder sich nur auf eine bestimmte Gruppe von Wildtierarten (z.B. Raubtiere oder Aasfresser) konzentrieren. Darüber hinaus sind die mechanistischen Pfade, die beschreiben wie Wildtiere das menschliche Wohlbefinden beeinflussen, noch wenig verstanden. Das Ziel dieses Literaturüberblicks ist es somit, eine ganzheitliche Übersicht zum aktuellen Wissensstand über WCP zu schaffen, Wissenslücken aufzudecken und die mechanistischen Pfade zu entschlüsseln. Obwohl der Schwerpunkt auf den Wildtieren liegt, umfasst die Literaturübersicht dennoch auch Studien zu Biodiversität. Folglich bildet der Inhalt des ersten Kapitels auch die Wissensgrundlage für alle weiteren Kapitel (K2 & 3) dieser Dissertation. Die Kapitel 2 und 3 (K2 & 3) bestehen aus zwei empirischen Fallstudien, in denen ich die nicht-materiellen Beiträge von Biodiversität zum menschlichen Wohlergehen untersuche. Dabei verwende ich einem Makroebenen-Ansatz, sprich, ich beleuchte den Zusammenhang zwischen Biodiversität und dem menschlichen Wohlbefinden auf einer höheren räumlichen bzw. höher-skaligen Ebene. Bisher haben nur wenige veröffentlichte Studien diesen Zusammenhang erforscht (siehe die Ergebnisse von K1) und Analysen, welche insbesondere die größeren räumlichen Zusammenhänge untersuchen, sind selten. So ist zum Beispiel wenig bekannt, ob Biodiversität auf nationaler und kontinentaler Ebene positiv mit dem menschlichen Wohlbefinden assoziiert. Jedoch sind empirische Studien auf der Makroebene, die sich mit solchen Fragestellungen auseinandersetzen, wichtig um Erkenntnisse für die Politikberatung und den Naturschutz zu gewinnen. Die beiden Fallstudien konzentrieren sich daher jeweils auf Deutschland und Europa als Modellregion um einen größeren räumlichen Maßstab der empirischen Analysen zu ermöglichen. Um empirische Analysen auf der Makroebene zu ermöglichen, kombiniere ich ökonomische und ökologische Methoden und führe sozio-ökonomische Daten mit makro-ökologischen Datensätzen zusammen. Außerdem verwende ich in jeder Studie verschiedene Indikatoren für Biodiversität (Artenvielfalt, z.B. Anzahl verschiedener Vogelarten) und konzentriere mich jeweils auf eine der folgenden Dimensionen des menschlichen Wohlbefindens: die menschliche Gesundheit (gemessen als geistige und körperliche Gesundheit) und das subjektive Wohlbefinden (gemessen als Lebenszufriedenheit). Die generierten Ergebnisse ermöglichen ein besseres Verständnis darüber, ob die biologische Vielfalt in Deutschland und Europa zum menschlichen Wohlbefinden beiträgt. Dieses neue Wissen kann auch wertvolle Informationen für politische Entscheidungsträger liefern. . ; Nature and its constituents are known to affect human well-being in positive and negative ways. Nature can be beneficial for humans by providing, for instance, food, recreation or inspiration. Natural disasters or transmitted diseases are, on the other hand, examples of nature's detrimental or harmful contributions to human well-being. Such positive as well as negative effects have been termed Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) and can be categorized into three different types of contributions: regulating, material and non-material NCP. While regulating and material NCP have been studied extensively, research on the non-material NCP is less common in comparison, especially regarding non-material NCP of biodiversity and wildlife. This dissertation therefore aims at shedding light on the non-material links between biodiversity, wildlife and human well-being. The thesis presents the results of three individual research studies in three separate chapters (CH1, 2 & 3). In the first chapter (CH1) I conduct a systematic literature review on the non-material contributions of wildlife. Several previous reviews have published overviews on the non-material contributions of wildlife. However, only a few of these reviews examine both the positive and negative effects of wildlife in combination. These reviews usually cover few aspects of human well-being (e.g. recreation, health, psychological well-being) or just focus on a specific group of wildlife species (e.g. carnivores, scavengers). In addition, the pathways determining how wildlife affects human well-being are yet little understood. The aim of this review is therefore to create a holistic overview of the current knowledge on non-material contributions of wildlife (WCP), by summarising research on positive and negative effects and disentangling potential channels of human-wildlife experiences. My results show that most studies in scientific literature report negative WCP. However, over the last decade the number of publications on positive WCP has increased, mainly in the Global North. This change in research focus, at the turn of the century, may be related to the newly emerging ideas and perspectives on nature during that time (e.g. Ecosystem Services and NCP). The results may also indicate different research interests across global regions and a focus on positive WCP (especially in the Global North). Surprisingly, the review identifies a lack of joint systematic assessments of positive and negative WCP across taxa, human well-being dimensions and ways (channels) of wildlife experiences. Studies show taxon-specific differences, with predominantly positive WCP reported for birds and predominantly negative WCP published for mammals and reptiles. Physical health was the most examined human well-being dimension, while many others, such as subjective well-being, social well-being, learning, identity or sense of place were rarely studied in comparison. The two channels of wildlife experiences that have been mainly studied or reported are Interaction and Knowing. While Interaction describes multisensory experiences in which people physically interact with wildlife. Knowing describes the metaphysical connection between humans and wildlife that arises through thinking or remembering experiences from wildlife encounters (including knowledge about wildlife). To date, only few published studies examine the relationship between biodiversity and human well-being across larger spatial scales. For instance, little is known about how biodiversity is related to human well-being on the national or continental level. The second and third chapter (CH2 & 3) are thus comprised of two empirical case studies which examine the relationship between biodiversity and human well-being across Germany and Europe, respectively. As indicator for biodiversity, I use different species diversity measures including species richness and abundance. In the second chapter (CH2) I analyse the association between species richness and human health across Germany. The results demonstrate a significant positive relationship between plant and bird species richness and mental health while controlling for a multitude of socio-economic and demographic factors as well as other nature characteristics. In the third chapter (CH3) I conduct the first study on the relationship between species diversity and subjective well-being on the continental level. The results show that bird species richness (unlike mammal, megafauna and tree richness) is positively associated with life-satisfaction, a measure for subjective well-being across Europe. These results are robust while accounting for socio-economic and macro-economic factors. The results of both empirical studies are in correspondence with previous research, conducted on the local and national level. Overall, my dissertation shows that wildlife and biodiversity greatly affect human well-being and provide substantial non-material NCP. .

The western world deals with a continuous trend of aging, low fertility, and debt crisis that pushes the governments toward funded-capitalized pension schemes (Holzmann & Hinz, 2005; Feldstein, 2005). A common trend is for public pension benefits to decline. Moreover, systemic reforms have changed the nature of pension provisions to shift more risks toward the pension earners. The privatization of pension plans world-wide and the global process toward appearance of more defined contribution plans raise important questions and thoughts regarding the proper pension scheme (Barr & Diamond, 2009). The sharp downturn in the value of financial assets between 2007 and 2009 and the current financial crisis now arisen from the COVID-19 pandemic serve as sharp examples of how risky assets quickly lose a significant part of their value. The financial crises and continuing concerns about retirement security have generated new interest in the role of the country to provide adequate old-age benefits to its citizens. That interest is not merely reflected in vast recent literature; we are witnessing a great wave of pension withdrawals from funded-capitalized schemes toward more governmental intervention. Most of the countries experiencing the crises were the first to implement the new liberal pension schemes during the 1990s (Ebbinghaus, 2019; Altiparmakov, 2018; Grech, 2018). In the era of an increasingly aging population and declining birth-rates on the one hand and the deep financial crisis, on the other hand, this thesis contributes to the debate on the optimal implementation of modern funded pension schemes. This thesis seeks the economic equilibrium that would enable funded pension schemes to remain sustainable to provide adequate benefits in old age. The novelty of this thesis is in its risk perspective. In this research, the government and various earning cohorts have been attributed roles as actors in the pension field. After laying down the fundamentals of the modern pension theory, this thesis presents three studies that deeply examine the funded-capitalized pension schemes and their characteristics. Each chapter studies distinct dimensions of the pension schemes and all three lead to the same conclusion that it is necessary to consider various earning cohorts as distinct actors and strengthen the pension design with risk-sharing mechanisms. The mutual aim of these chapters is to identify a pension design that would enable the aged to received adequate pension benefits without placing a fiscal burden on the government. The first investigation is a theoretical study that further develops the portfolio theory of Markowitz and analyzes the financial relationship between the participant and the government. I claim that each actor in the field of pension tries to transfer risks that they cannot avoid successfully to the other actors. Therefore, this study argues that through political or fiscal pressure the pension designs converge to an equilibrium design that has risk-sharing mechanisms of bi-pathways of risks, including from the participant to the government. In this study, I point to countries that have moved through reforms toward radical privatization, mainly the Central East Europe (CEE) and Latin American countries, and demonstrated the process of convergence on to risk-sharing design. The next two chapters analyze the funded pension design, each one from a different perspective. The first chapter looks at the public as a pension actor and differentiates among the earning cohorts. Here the optimal pension design that strikes a balance between funded and unfunded pension pillars has been derived using an Over-Lapping Generation (OLG) model and simple utility function, calibrated to suit the average OECD countries. While simulating different pillars' sizes, this study reveals a socio-economic anomaly in which low-earning cohorts absorb higher economic cost compares to the rest of the participants. This is caused by unbalances contribution rates to the funded and unfunded pension pillars. These uneven contribution rates arise from the inefficient hedging capability of the pension portfolios. Further, this research concludes that the mechanism of minimum pension guarantee is an efficient system stabilizer as it distributes the economic cost equitably among the earning cohorts. The third chapter in this part continues along the direction set in the preceding chapter, which is to explore the socio-economic anomaly among earning cohorts during the shift to a funded pension scheme. This investigation is conducted mainly via an option benefit model, modeling the financial relationships among different earning cohorts and the government. Here the financial position reveals a socio-economic anomaly caused by exposure to financial and systemic risks and lack of insurance against such risks. Here, from another perspective, I also find that the minimum pension guarantee is a rebalancing mechanism that increases the probability of a pension scheme being sustainable. Specifically, this research argues that implementing the guarantee with an intra generational, risk-sharing mechanism is the most efficient way to reduce the effect of this anomaly. Moreover, the second part of this chapter describes the convergence process toward implementing minimum pension guarantee in countries, which have capitalized their pension systems during the last three decades. These three chapters consider the risks and point toward the need to balance funded pension schemes to increase the probability of a pension system being sustainable and capable of providing adequate old-age benefits. The third part of this thesis demonstrates the influence of risk and the effect of the minimum pension guarantee from accrual pension records of the Israeli market. This study aims to empirically examine the adequacy of the future benefits of the funded pension scheme. This study investigates a large real data sample from the largest pension fund in Israel and simulates expected benefits using a pension simulator. Here I find that even with relatively high market returns, the shift of pension provision from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution (DC) results in a significant shift of risk from capital to labor and might push elderly participants into poverty during their retirement phase. The COVID-19 pandemic crisis in 2020 demonstrates that the expected pension benefits are vulnerable to financial, career, and systemic shocks. This research demonstrates the inadequacy of benefits and suggests embracing central risk-sharing mechanisms that can be implemented without increasing governmental debt level. This thesis closely examines the role of the state as the central planner. In this research, it is assumed that one of the socio-economic roles of the state is to provide adequate benefits to its retired citizens. The state has to navigate through risks, challenges, and constraints to attain success in that role. The oft-repeated motive of this thesis is to find risk-sharing mechanisms that alleviate the risk burden on the individual and to ensure adequate benefit in old age. However, implementing such mechanisms required the government to play an active part in the pension market.

Climate change is one of, if not the, most important issues faced by the global society in the 21st century. The effects of climate change are visible on all continents and oceans already today and a business-as-usual will lead to severe consequences on the earth system, the economy and public health. Keeping these risks in check, the international community signed the Paris Agreement, stating the goal to limit the global mean temperature rise at the end of the century to well below 2 \degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5\degree C. This is one of the first incidents of human kind acknowledging that the current development is not sustainable and the earth's limits would be reached in a time span of a few generation. Achieving the Paris Agreement goals requires greenhouse gas emission net neutrality around mid century, implying a limited remaining greenhouse gas emission budget. This necessitates an unprecedented transformation of the energy system, land-use sector and, if economic development and energy demand are not decoupled, deprioritization of economic growth. However, the remaining emission budget is currently over-exploited by countries acting independently according to their own self-interest, free-riding on the mitigation efforts of the others, a case of the Tragedy of the Global Commons. In this context, climate change has also been called the biggest market failure since the emitters of greenhouse gases seldom face the associated cost. In the absence of a price reflecting climate change impacts, climate policies are required. Policymakers establish policies to achieve the transformation, crucially informed by scenarios from integrated energy-economy-climate models. The common approach is to model economically optimal scenarios while constraining greenhouse gas emissions to meet a set radiative forcing target. This transformation intersects with other sustainability goals which can lead to positive, called co-benefits, or negative effects, called adverse side effects. However, the common approach lacks accounting for other co-benefits and adverse side effects associated with the infrastructure and the operation of the energy system. These include air pollution - public health effects, water–energy–land nexus and biodiversity conservation. Consequently, for a holistic sustainability assessment it is necessary to endeavour beyond an isolated consideration of greenhouse gas emissions as the unique metric. The research question this dissertation is tackling is therefore: What are the co-benefits and adverse side effects of energy and climate policy? The three main chapters assess this topic with different foci. The first chapter focuses on the specific consideration of one of the most important externality of the energy system, air pollution induced public health effects. In the second chapter a comprehensive life cycle based assessment of impacts for a subsystem, the electricity system in Germany, is performed. Here, the sustainability dimension is evaluated against the economic cost through a multi criteria optimization. Finally we do a comprehensive analysis of different global climate policy scenarios with the focus on the policy of a global coal exit. Our main result is that the co-benefits of climate policy are in the same order of magnitude as the mitigation cost, if a comprehensive analysis is applied, confirming its relevance. Especially major emitters of greenhouse gas emissions such as India and China benefit the most from climate mitigation efforts, this can function as an early entry point for climate mitigation policies. In contrast to climate policies the human health and environmental co-benefits are local and intra-generational. This can help tackle the described Tragedy of the Global Commons of climate mitigation. We show that renewable energies not only emit the lowest greenhouse gases they also outperform fossil fuel based technologies on most of the other sustainability criteria. However, our results show that the co-benefits consideration needs to be comprehensive as climate policies can lead to challenges for example in land-use and resource depletion that need further attention. We further show that including the whole life cycle and a system wide analysis are crucial as impacts are shifted from direct to indirect emissions and unintended substitution effects need to be accounted for. Finally we give an outlook for future research directions which should mainly focus on a more detailed modeling of environmental and human health impacts as well as the question on how to integrate the impact assessment into the modeling of transition pathways. ; Der Klimawandel ist eine der, wenn nicht gar die wichtigste Herausforderung der Menschheit im 21. Jahrhundert. Die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels sind auf allen Kontinenten und Ozeanen bereits heute sichtbar und ein weiter wie bisher hätte schwerwiegenden Folgen für die Umwelt, Wirtschaft und öffentliche Gesundheit. Um diese Risiken in Schach zu halten, unterzeichnete die internationale Gemeinschaft das Pariser Übereinkommen, in dem sie sich darauf einigte, den globalen Anstieg der mittleren Temperatur bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts auf deutlich unter 2◦Celsius über dem vorindustriellen Niveau zu begrenzen und Anstrengungen zu unternehmen, um ihn auf 1,5◦C zu begrenzen. Dies ist einer der ersten Ereignisse in der die Menschheit anererkennt, dass die gegenwärtige Entwicklung nicht nachhaltig ist und die Grenzen der Erde in einer Zeitspanne von wenigen Generationen erreicht werden würden. Um die Pariser Ziele zu erreichen, muss um die Mitte des Jahrhunderts netto Neutralität von Treibhausgasen erreicht werden was ein verbleibendes Emissionsbudget impliziert. Dies erfordert eine beispiellose Transformation des Energiesystems, des Landnutzungssektors und, wenn wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und Energienachfrage nicht entkoppelt werden, die Entpriorisierung vonWirtschaftswachstum. Das verbleibende Emissionsbudget wird derzeit von Ländern übermäßig ausgeschöpft, die nach ihrem eigenen Eigeninteresse handeln und von Minderungsbemühungen der anderen profitieren, ein Fall der Tragödie der Global Commons. Folglich wird der Klimawandel auch als das größte Marktversagen bezeichnet, da die Emittenten von Treibhausgasen selten mit den damit verbundenen Kosten konfrontiert sind. Dem Marktversagen zu begegnen erfordert das Eingreifen der Politik. Die politischen Entscheidungsträger legen dazu Maßnahmen fest, die auf detaillierten Abschätzungen ihrer Auswirkungen basieren. Dabei werden sie durch Szenarienanalysen von Integrated Assessment und Energiesystemmodellen informiert. Der gängige Ansatz besteht darin, wirtschaftlich optimale Szenarien zu modellieren und gleichzeitig die Treibhausgasemissionen zu begrenzen, um ein festgelegtes Erwärmungsziel zu erreichen. Die Dekarbonisierung unseres Wirtschaftens überschneidet sich aber mit einer Vielzahl anderen Nachhaltigkeitszielen, was zu Zusatznutzen oder negativen Effekten führen kann. Dem gängigen Ansatz fehlt es jedoch an der Berücksichtigung dieser Zusatznutzen und Nebenwirkungen im Zusammenhang mit der Infrastruktur und dem Betrieb des Energiesystems. Dazu gehören unter anderem die durch Luftverschmutzung verursachten Auswirkungen auf die öffentliche Gesundheit, der Nexus zwischenWasser, Energie und Land und der Schutz der biologischen Vielfalt. Für eine ganzheitliche Nachhaltigkeitsbewertung ist es daher notwendig, über eine isolierte Betrachtung der Treibhausgasemissionen als alleinige Kennzahl hinauszugehen. Die Forschungsfrage, der sich diese Dissertation widmet, ist daher: Was sind die Zusatznutzen und negativen Effekte von Energie- und Klimapolitik? Die drei Hauptkapitel beleuchten diese Themenfeld mit unterschiedlichen Schwerpunkten. Das zweite Kapitel konzentriert sich auf die spezifische Berücksichtigung einer der wichtigsten Externalität des Energiesystems, durch Luftverschmutzung induzierte Auswirkungen auf die öffentliche Gesundheit. Im dritten Kapitel wird eine umfassende lebenszyklusbasierte Bewertung der Auswirkungen für ein Subsystem, das Elektrizitätssystem in Deutschland, durchgeführt. Die Nachhaltigkeitsdimension wird hierbei durch eine multikriterielle Optimierung mit den wirtschaftlichen Kosten verglichen. Schließlich führen wir eine umfassende Analyse verschiedener globaler klimapolitischer Szenarien durch, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf der Politik eines globalen Kohleausstiegs liegt. Unser Hauptergebnis ist, dass die Zusatznutzen der Klimapolitik bei einer umfassende Analyse in der gleichen Größenordnung liegen wie die Minderungskosten. Vor allem große Emittenten von Treibhausgasemissionen wie Indien und China profitieren am meisten von den Bemühungen um den Klimaschutz, dies kann als früher Einstieg in Klimaschutzpolitik dienen. Im Gegensatz zur Klimapolitik sind die Vorteile für die menschliche Gesundheit und die Umwelt lokal und zeitnah. Dies kann dazu beitragen, die beschriebene Tragödie der Global Commons von Klimapolitik zu bewältigen. Wir zeigen weiter, dass erneuerbare Energien nicht nur die niedrigsten Treibhausgasemissionen ausstoßen, sondern auch einen geringere Auswirkung auf die meisten anderen Nachhaltigkeitskriterien als auf fossilen Brennstoffen basierenden Technologien haben. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen jedoch, dass die Betrachtung der Zusatznutzen umfassend sein muss, da Klimapolitik zu Herausforderungen zum Beispiel bei der Landnutzung und der Ressourcenverknappung führen kann, die weitere Aufmerksamkeit erfordern. Wir zeigen ferner, dass die Einbeziehung des gesamten Lebenszyklus und eine systemweite Analyse entscheidend sind, da die Auswirkungen von direkten auf indirekte Emissionen verlagert werden und unbeabsichtigte Substitutionseffekte berücksichtigt werden müssen. Schließlich geben wir einen Ausblick auf zukünftige Forschungsfelder, die sich vor allem auf eine detaillierterere Modellierung der Auswirkungen auf die Umwelt und die menschliche Gesundheit sowie auf die Frage konzentrieren sollten, wie die Folgenabschätzung in die Modellierung von Transformationspfaden integriert werden kann.

The decade 2009-2019 was particularly intense in rhetoric about efforts to tackle the climate crisis, such as the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP 21. However, the carbon dioxide emissions at the world scale increased constantly from 29.7 (GtCO2) in 2009 to 34.2 in 2019. The current gap between rhetoric and reality on emissions was and is still huge. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change proposed different mitigation strategies to achieve the net emissions reductions that would be required to follow a pathway that limits global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot. There are still pathways to reach net-zero by 2050. Several reports propose detailed scenarios and strategies to achieve these targets. They remain narrow and highly challenging, requiring all stakeholders, governments, businesses, investors, and citizens to take action this year and every year after so that the goal does not slip out of reach. In most of these trajectories, electrification and an increased share of renewables are some of the key pillars. The transition towards a carbon-free society goes through an inevitable increase in the share of renewable generation in the energy mix and a drastic decrease in the total consumption of fossil fuels. In contrast to conventional power plants, renewable energy is subject to uncertainty. Most of the generation technologies based on renewable sources are non-dispatchable, and their production is stochastic and complex to predict in advance. A high share of renewables is challenging for power systems that have been designed and sized for dispatchable units. Therefore, this thesis studies the integration of renewables in power systems by investigating forecasting and decision-making tools. Since variable generation and electricity demand both fluctuate, they must be forecast ahead of time to inform real-time electricity scheduling and longer-term system planning. Better short-term forecasts enable system operators to reduce reliance on polluting standby plants and proactively manage increasing amounts of variable sources. Better long-term forecasts help system operators and investors to decide where and when to build variable plants. In this context, probabilistic forecasts, which aim at modeling the distribution of all possible future realizations, have become a vital tool to equip decision-makers, hopefully leading to better decisions in energy applications. When balancing electricity systems, system operators use scheduling and dispatch to determine how much power every controllable generator should produce. This process is slow and complex, governed by NP-hard optimization problems such as unit commitment and optimal power flow. Scheduling becomes even more complex as electricity systems include more storage, variable generators, and flexible demand. Thus, scheduling must improve significantly, allowing operators to rely on variable sources to manage systems. Therefore, stochastic or robust optimization strategies have been developed along with decomposition techniques to make the optimization problems tractable and efficient. These two challenges raise two central research questions studied in this thesis: (1) How to produce reliable probabilistic renewable generation forecasts, consumption, and electricity prices? (2) How to make decisions with uncertainty using probabilistic forecasts to improve scheduling? The thesis perimeter is the energy management of "small" systems such as microgrids at a residential scale on a day-ahead basis. The manuscript is divided into two main parts to propose directions to address both research questions: (1) a forecasting part; (2) a planning and control part. The forecasting part presents several techniques and strategies to produce and evaluate probabilistic forecasts. We provide the forecasting basics by introducing the different types of forecasts to characterize the behavior of stochastic variables, such as renewable generation, and the tools to assess the different types of forecasts. An example of forecast quality evaluation is given by assessing PV and electrical consumption point forecasts computed by standard deep-learning models such as recurrent neural networks. Then, the following Chapters investigate the quantile forecasts, scenarios, and density forecasts on several case studies. First, more advanced deep-learning models such as the encoder-decoder architecture produce PV quantile forecasts. Second, a density forecast-based approach computes probabilistic forecasts of imbalance prices on the Belgian case. Finally, a recent class of deep generative models, normalizing flows, generates renewable production and electrical consumption scenarios. Using an energy retailer case study, this technique is extensively compared to state-of-the-art generative models, the variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks. The planning and control part proposes approaches and methodologies based on optimization for decision-making under uncertainty using probabilistic forecasts on several case studies. We introduce the basics of decision-making under uncertainty using optimization strategies: stochastic programming and robust optimization. Then, we investigate these strategies in several case studies in the following Chapters. First, we propose a value function-based approach to propagate information from operational planning to real-time optimization in a deterministic framework. Second, three Chapters focus on the energy management of a grid-connected renewable generation plant coupled with a battery energy storage device in the capacity firming market. This framework promotes renewable power generation facilities in small non-interconnected grids. The day-ahead planning of the system uses either a stochastic or a robust approach. Furthermore, a sizing methodology of the system is proposed. Finally, we consider the day-ahead market scheduling of an energy retailer to evaluate the forecast value of the deep learning generative models introduced in the forecasting part. (1) Forecasting techniques of the future. The development of new machine learning models that take advantage of the underlying physical process opens a new way of research. For instance, new forecasting techniques that take advantage of the power system characteristics, such as the graphical normalizing flows capable of learning the power network structure, could be applied to hierarchical forecasting. (2) Machine learning for optimization. Models that simplify optimization planning problems by learning a sub-optimal space. For instance, a deep learning model can partially learn the sizing space to provide a fast and efficient tool. A neural network can also emulate the behavior of a physics solver that solves electricity differential equations to compute electricity flow in power grids. Furthermore, such proxies could evaluate if a given operation planning decision would lead to acceptable trajectories where the reliability criterion is met in real-time. (3) Modelling and simulation of energy systems. New flexible and open-source optimization modeling tools are required to capture the growing complexity of such future energy systems. To this end, in the past few years, several open-source models for the strategic energy planning of urban and regional energy systems have been developed. EnergyScope TD and E4CLIM are two of them where we think it may be relevant to implement and test the forecasting techniques and scheduling strategies developed in this thesis. (4) Psychology and machine learning. Achieving sustainability goals requires as much the use of relevant technology as psychology. Therefore, one of the main challenges is not designing relevant technological tools but changing how we consume and behave in our society. Thus, machine learning and psychology could help to identify appropriate behaviors to reduce carbon footprint. Then, inform individuals, and provide constructive opportunities by modeling individual behavior.

Disasters triggered by natural hazards are increasingly causing damage to dwellings in low-income communities. Despite the significant value of hazard-resistant housing to reduce disaster risk, the use of hazard- resistant construction techniques remains insufficient. The goal of this study is to understand what could stimulate disaster affected populations to Build Back Safer housing. The approach is to explore in situ barriers, drivers and outcomes of decision-making prior to suggesting interventions aiming to build resilience and reduce disaster risk. Field research assesses disaster affected communities in low- income countries that received different intensities of humanitarian technical assistance to stimulate adoption of safer construction practices. This research is important because of three main reasons. First, theory about effective interventions that build resilience of disaster affected communities is sparse in literature. However, such insights are increasingly relevant for humanitarian and governmental agencies to reduce disaster risks. Second, there is little empirical evidence on what enables or inhibits households to apply hazard-resistant construction knowledge after disaster. Empirical evidence is needed to reflect upon the impact of humanitarian technical assistance on the housing safety. Limited empirical evidence presents how households reconstruct in the absence of outside influence from humanitarian organizations, which is the case for the majority of disaster affected households in developing countries. Understanding their decision-making can inform the development of affordable and effective interventions that enhance hazard resistance. This research seeks to answer the overarching research question, What factors and actors could increase the adoption of hazard-resistant construction techniques in post-disaster reconstruction processes with different intensities of humanitarian technical assistance? In response, the research adopts a mixed-method case-study approach to assess disaster affected communities in the Philippines and Nepal. The research begins with the development of a theoretical framework that is used to structure the empirical data. Based on the contextual understanding and multiple analyses, dynamics of knowledge adoption are discussed, and recommendations are given to increase building resilience. The research first develops a theoretical framework by assimilating insights from theory of knowledge uptake, knowledge transfer and knowledge exchange (Chapter 2). The model is constructed from identified factors and actors that potentially influence the adoption of hazard-resistant construction knowledge in post-disaster reconstruction. The framework includes knowledge exchange between users, construction professionals and technical experts, and stresses that adoption and understanding of knowledge is required from all actors involved in order for exchange to be effective. The study highlights the importance of mutual trust between actors and the knowledge they communicate. Further, the framework identified potential barriers in the communication, and motivation, ability and opportunity to adopt knowledge perceived by actors. Further, failure mechanisms were identified that can limit adoption in practice. Based on the theoretical framework, initial propositions were formulated to enhance adoption in practice, stressing the need to: adapt knowledge to local needs through exchange; adapt knowledge to local skills and cognitive levels via contextualization; adapt communication to local culture; adapt knowledge to financial possibilities and priorities of low-income groups; establish positively perceived consequences of knowledge adoption; provide and enhance trust in the knowledge sender; adapt knowledge to local building culture; and, apply a community learning strategy. Both in the Philippines and Nepal, remote rural communities are selected, living in great poverty, with limited access to electricity and education and vulnerable to recurring hazards. A pilot study in the Philippines examined knowledge adoption following typhoon Haiyan in 2013. The selected communities were left without humanitarian technical assistance, allowing for narrow, controlled cases of naturally occurring knowledge adoption processes. A pilot study employed a mixed-method approach that sought to gain insights from important classes of stakeholders. To gain insights into the communities affected, 220 household interviews and 13 carpenter interviews and focus group discussions were conducted in six communities. In addition, to gain insights from the institutional stakeholders, 20 interviews with government officials, builders, and humanitarian organizations were conducted over two years. Based on the pilot study and reflection upon the used research protocols, a larger focused study was employed in 25 communities in Nepal following the Gorkha earthquake of 2015. This study compared two disaster affected districts, of which one had received significantly more humanitarian technical shelter assistance than the other. Again, stakeholder perspectives were assessed using a total of 1453 household interviews, 1456 structural assessments of houses, 25 focus group discussions with community members, 61 key- stakeholder interviews. The dissertation reveals crucial aspects that determine the extent of adoption of hazard-resistant construction principles. Based on the findings, strategies to increase knowledge adoption are presented. This research (1) proposes a theoretical framework for knowledge adoption; (2) describes the knowledge need, awareness and networks, outside humanitarian technical assistance; (3) compares the physical adoption of hazard-resistant construction knowledge with different levels of humanitarian technical assistance; (4) compares and identifies perceptions of barriers and drivers of hazard-resistant reconstruction with different levels of assistance; (5) compares the knowledge need, awareness and networks with different levels of technical assistance; (6) identifies target groups for audience specific communication strategies. The results contribute to understanding of knowledge adoption influenced by communication and decision-making patterns during reconstruction, building theory of knowledge adoption pathways. Findings in the Philippines challenge long-held assumptions that state- of-the-art technical guidelines reach disaster affected communities in the absence of humanitarian assistance, at least to a certain extent (Chapter 3). However, findings in Nepal indicate the opposite. In Nepal, unexpected positive structural safety outcomes, in both districts, question the so often positively reported impact of humanitarian knowledge interventions by humanitarian organizations (Chapter 4). Differences in structural safety are remarkably small, showing positive earthquake resistant characteristics of reconstructed housing in both situations. The successful application of safety features can be linked to the guidance of governmental engineers (Chapter 5). Households appear to be highly motivated and to have significant ability to reconstruct hazard-resistant structures, but sometimes perceive a lack of opportunity to Build Back Safer (Chapter 6). Findings reveal both positive and negative impacts of humanitarian technical assistance on the perceptions of affected households. Practically, the findings can be used to inform the design of more effective humanitarian knowledge interventions to enhance safer post-disaster reconstruction targeted to the characteristics of affected households (Chapter 7). The study suggests that the theoretical framework is useful to understanding knowledge adoption in practice (Chapter 8). The findings provide a crucial contribution to the efficacy and use of disaster relief resources and sustainable housing solutions for disaster-affected populations. Findings call to facilitate decisions of disaster affected populations without enforcing standardization construction techniques. The study stresses to respect local priorities even if it does not lead to safer structures. Further, there is a need to adjust the time-framjavascript:void(0);e of aid to the construction process of affected communities and the combination cash knowledge for interventions. The communication of knowledge should be aligned to local habits.

To preserve their business model, companies have long protected their innovation processes with patents. « Open source hardware » (OSH) is, on the contrary, a collaborative product development process, where design plans and manufacturing "secrets" are accessible to all. The lines between creators and consumers blur more and more, especially when, for example, digital fabrication tools such as 3D printers or laser cutters accessible via Fab Labs or Maker Spaces, enable citizens to create and test products much more easily. Starting from an isolated phenomenon, there are now 1200 Fab Labs in 100 different countries organized in a "Fab City Network", to help cities produce within forty years 50% of the resources they consume.In this context, building a drone to depollute oceans, connected beehives, or a water filter in « Open Source Hardware » (OSH) aims at creating solutions in a more rapid, efficient and inexpensive manner. Furthermore, these innovations are voluntarily kept free by law. They represent a knowledge base, a "digital common good", meaning a reserve of ideas and solutions available on the internet via numerical platforms. According to Elinor Ostrom, who received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2009, "the challenge of the current generation is to keep the pathways to discovery open" (Hess & Ostrom, 2011). Without attaining the success of open source software initiatives, in practice, these OSH initiatives have continued to spread.But how can a sustainable economic model be developed when co-constructed innovations can be shared by all? Thus, our research questions are the following: 1) How to monetize value created through OSH? 2) How can the business model framework be extended to include value creation and sharing for all stakeholders? 3) In the context of OSH, how does a business model hold together?The OSH phenomenon is not specific to a single sector, company or territory, but is indicative of much more global transformation. To understand the conditions necessary for the survival and growth of OSH, we conducted a qualitative study on the "OSH ecosystem" that allowed us to study the community, firm and territorial ecosystems levels together.Data was collected in three successive phases. First, qualitative interviews were conducted with twenty-three initiatives from the "Open Source Hardware Observatory". These, of course, corresponded to our research criteria, that is the development of complex mechatronic or textile products labeled opened by their surrounding community. Then we conducted a case study on four actors in the automotive sector to study their reaction to OSH developed by innovation communities. The final phase consisted of running an empirical study of the actors in the OSH innovation ecosystem of the city of Barcelona, chosen for its pivotal role in the "Fab Cities" network.Our results show that these initiatives are strongly focused on democratic values aimed at putting technology at the service of humanity. While these values are a powerful vector for federating actors, success is stalled in companies that do not adhere to them. These will primarily focus on the associated risks. Finally, we identified a diversity of possible and configurable revenues to be shaped according to an organization's strategic needs: 1) external financing; 2) a combination of products and services; 3) strategic competence; 4) the model platform, and 5) the distributed enterprise. Together, they enable an OSH initiative to progressively refine its business model, grow in value, and increase its impact. ; Pour préserver leur modèle économique, les entreprises ont longtemps protégé leurs processus d'innovation par des brevets. L'« open source hardware » est, au contraire, un processus collaboratif de développement de produits, où les plans de conception et « secrets » de fabrication sont accessibles à tous. La barrière entre concepteurs et consommateurs s'estompe, grâce aux outils de fabrication digitale, comme les imprimantes 3D ou les découpeuses lasers accessibles via des Fab Labs ou des Maker Spaces permettant aux citoyens de créer et de tester des produits beaucoup plus facilement. Partant d'un phénomène isolé, il existe maintenant 1200 Fab Labs dans 100 différents pays organisés en réseau, « the Fab City Network », dont le but est d'aider les villes à produire 50% des ressources qu'elles consomment d'ici quarante ans.Dans ce contexte, construire un drone pour dépolluer les océans, une ruche connectée, ou un filtre à eau en « Open Source Hardware » (OSH) vise à créer des solutions de manière plus rapide, efficace et à moindre coût. De plus, ces innovations sont gardées volontairement libres de droit. Elles constituent un « bien commun digital », une réserve de connaissances disponible sur Internet via des plateformes numériques. Selon Elinor Ostrom, qui a reçu le prix Nobel d'économie en 2009 « le défi de la génération actuelle est de garder les voies d'accès aux connaissances ouvertes ». Sans atteindre le succès des initiatives en Open Source dans le secteur des logiciels informatiques, ces initiatives n'ont cessé de se propager.Or, comment développer un modèle économique durable avec des innovations qui ont été co-construites et sont partageables par tous ? Nos questions de recherche sont les suivantes : 1) comment rentabiliser la création de valeur produite en OSH ? ; 2) comment étendre cette création de valeur à un ensemble de parties prenantes ? 3) dans le contexte de l'OSH quels sont les facteurs d'adhésions autour de ces modèles économiques ?L'OSH ne s'agit pas d'un phénomène propre à un seul secteur, entreprise ou territoire mais une transformation beaucoup plus globale. Pour chercher à comprendre les conditions nécessaires à la survie et à la montée en puissance de ce phénomène, nous avons mené une étude qualitative multiniveaux qui nous permettait d'étudier les niveaux communautaires, d'entreprise, et d'écosystème territorial, à la fois.La collection de données s'est faite en trois étapes successives. Dans un premier temps, des entretiens qualitatifs ont été menés auprès de vingt-trois initiatives issues de « l'Observatoire de l'Open Source Hardware ». Celles-ci devaient, bien entendu, correspondre à nos critères de recherche, à savoir le développement de produits mécatroniques ou textiles complexes et étiquetés ouverts par leur communauté. Puis, nous avons mené une étude de cas sur quatre acteurs du secteur automobile pour étudier leur réaction face à l'OSH issu de communautés d'innovation. L'étape finale consistait à mener une étude empirique sur les acteurs dans l'écosystème d'innovation d'OSH de la ville de Barcelone, choisie pour son rôle pivot dans le réseau des « Fab Cities ».Nos résultats montrent que ces initiatives sont fortement axées sur des valeurs démocratiques visant à mettre la technologie au service de l'humain. Cet ensemble inhabituel de valeurs constitue un puissant vecteur pour fédérer les acteurs, alors que le succès est mitigé au sein d'entreprises qui n'y adhèrent pas et appréhendent davantage les risques. Enfin, nous avons identifié une diversité de revenus possibles et configurables selon les besoins stratégiques d'une organisation : 1) le financement externe ; 2) la combinaison de produits et de services ; 3) les compétences stratégiques de l'organisation ; 4) le modèle plateforme ; et 5) et l'entreprise distribuée. Ensemble, ils permettent à une initiative en OSH de progressivement affiner son business model, accroître sa valeur, et augmenter sa portée.

The study of human health over time offers valuable pathways for understanding multiple aspects of human experience and biology. Determining the presence of a disease in an ancient individual or community can give us insights into daily life during that time, and comparing human microbiota between different human groups over time and space can offer insights into behavior and diet. Assessing the health of past populations may provide new perspectives on concomitant social or political changes, and contribute to our understanding of how those populations managed, or failed to manage, crises and change. On a broader level, identifying and interrogating humanity's relationship with infectious and commensal microbes may offer insights into human evolution and adaptation. Most hopefully, the knowledge gained from the basic science of past human health may one day lead to discoveries that can be applied to modern medicine. For example, the evolutionary history of a specific pathogen may allow us to understand how it may behave in the future, and the constitution of ancient human microbiota may allow us to interrogate what taxa have been gained and lost over time in certain populations and what this may mean for modern oral and gut health. The study of past human health has always, by necessity, been an interdisciplinary endeavor. The task of diagnosis, difficult in living populations, becomes increasingly complicated with the passage of time, and the meaning and value of historical diagnosis, depending on the theoretical tides among medical historians, modern clinicians, and anthropologists, may fluctuate (Arrizabalaga, 2002; Waldron, 2009). Historical documentation or art pieces may offer verbal descriptions or visual depictions of ill health, but may be open to broad interpretation due to differing medical conventions and terminology over time and space, embellishment of the artist, or even political concerns that may or may not be evident to the scholar attempting a diagnosis (Mitchell, 2011). Health can also be inferred from human remains in archaeological contexts or the archaeological contexts themselves. Mass graves or multiple burials, for example, could signal an epidemic event (Blakely and Detweiler-Blakely, 1989; Rugg, 2000). Disease processes can leave traces in surviving soft tissue in the case of mummified individuals or in hard tissue, and as human remains that survive in the archaeological record are mostly skeletonized, bone tends to be the most common medium from which paleopathologists attempt to diagnose deceased, archaeological individuals. However, pathological changes in bone are not always specific to a single condition or infection, and not all conditions and infections leave signs in the Introduction 5 skeleton. For those conditions that can leave signs in the skeleton, whether or not this occurs depends on numerous factors, such as, for example, the immunocompetency of the individual or the severity of the infection. Even in the event that there are pathognomonic signs of a specific infection identified in a skeletonized individual, that information cannot be used to infer evolutionary dynamics of the infecting organism. ; Alte mikrobielle DNA ist eine ausgezeichnete Quelle um Informationen über die Gesundheit der Menschen in der Vergangenheit zu gewinnen. Die Methoden zur effektiven Analyse sind noch jung und müssen weiter präzisiert werden. Next-Generation-Sequenzierungstechnologien machten es möglich, vollständige Bakteriengenome aus großen mikrobiellen Gemeinschaften menschlicher Überreste zu isolieren sowie die Gemeinschaften in ihrer Gesamtheit zu untersuchen. Die vorgelegte Dissertation veranschaulicht den Wert dieser beiden Ansätze durch die metagenomische Analyse verschiedener archäologischer Materialien: ein verkalkter Lungenknoten aus mumifizierten menschlichen Überresten, Dentin, Zahnstein und Latrinensedimenten. Im Verlauf der drei hier vorgestellten Projekte benutze ich das Genom eines Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) aus dem 17. Jahrhundert um den Zeitpunkt der Entstehung des Komplexes besser zu kalibrieren, untersuche anhand eines globalen Datensatzes die Dynamik in der DNA Erhaltung von Wirt und oralem Mikrobiom in Zahnstein und Zahnbein und untersuche die Konservierung microbieller DNA in zwei Latrinensedimentenproben für sowohl eukaryotische Parasiten als auch im Darm angesiedelte Mikroben. Manuskript A behandelt ein hochqualititives Mycobacterium tuberculosis-Genom. Die hohe Qualität des Genoms und das genau bekannte Todesjahr des Verstorbenen ermöglichen es uns, das Genom als sicheren Kalibrierungspunkt in der Bayesischen phylogenetischen Analyse zu verwenden und so den letzten gemeinsamen Vorfahren (tMRCA) für den gesamten MTBC und der Linie 4 des MTBC zu bestimmen. Diese Arbeit zeigt, dass der verkalkte Lungenknoten eine ausgezeichnete Quelle für MTBC-DNA darstellt und unterstützt die These der Verbindung zwischen der Entsehung der Tuberkulose und der Ausbreitung der Landwirtschaft und Tierzucht. Manuskript B bietet eine umfassende Untersuchung der DNA-Erhaltung in Zahnstein im Vergleich zum Zahnbein desselben Zahns und bestätigt systematisch Zahnstein als eine hervorragende Konservierungsumgebung für DNA über verschiedene Kontinente, Zeiträume und Individuen hinweg. Alle Zahnsteinproben weisen einen hohen Gehalt an genetischem Material der oralen Mikroben und geringen Mengen an Wirts DNA auf. Die Zahnsteinproben enthielten außerdem weniger Verunreinigungen aus der Umgebung. Interessanterweise enthielt auch das Zahnbein kleine Mengen von oralen Mikroben. Dies zeigt, dass Dentin in einigen Situationen als Proxy für einzelne orale Taxa verwendet werden kann. Diese Arbeit erhebt damit standartisiert die Erwartungen für die Erhaltung von DNA in Zahlstein. In Manuskript C wird eine Fallstudie in der interdisziplinären Paläomikrobiologie vorgestellt. Latrinensedimenteproben aus zwei mittelalterlichen Stätten, die zuvor bereits mikroskopisch analysiert wurden werden genetisch analysiert. Die metagenomischen Profile 165 beider Proben wurden auf eukaryotischen Parasiten und Erhaltung des Darm- Mikrobioms hin untersucht. Das Projekt zeigt, wie die Metagenomanalyse die Mikroskopie bei der Untersuchung der Gesundheit vergangener Bevölkerungungen ergänzen kann, indem sie einen enaueren Einblick in das Vorhandensein von Taxa, ihre Abstammungslinie und ihre Genomsequenzen bietet. Genetische Analysen können auch die unsichtbare Welt der zum Darmmikrobiom gehörenden Taxa aufdecken. Allerdings zeigt dieses Projekt auch viele Einschränkungen bei Analysen dieser Art auf. Die meisten Einschränkungen ergeben sich aus dem Mangel an modernen Genomsequenzen für eukaryotische Parasiten und nicht kultivierbarer Darmmikroben. Alte mikrobielle DNA ist eine ausgezeichnete Quelle um Informationen über die Gesundheit der Menschen in der Vergangenheit zu gewinnen. Die Methoden zur effektiven Analyse sind noch jung und müssen weiter präzisiert werden. Next-Generation- Sequenzierungstechnologien machten es möglich, vollständige Bakteriengenome aus großen mikrobiellen Gemeinschaften menschlicher Überreste zu isolieren sowie die Gemeinschaften in ihrer Gesamtheit zu untersuchen. Die vorgelegte Dissertation veranschaulicht den Wert dieser beiden Ansätze durch die metagenomische Analyse verschiedener archäologischer Materialien: ein verkalkter Lungenknoten aus mumifizierten menschlichen Überresten, Dentin, Zahnstein und Latrinensedimenten. Im Verlauf der drei hier vorgestellten Projekte benutze ich das Genom eines Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) aus dem 17. Jahrhundert um den Zeitpunkt der Entstehung des Komplexes besser zu kalibrieren, untersuche anhand eines globalen Datensatzes die Dynamik in der DNA Erhaltung von Wirt und oralem Mikrobiom in Zahnstein und Zahnbein und untersuche die Konservierung microbieller DNA in zwei Latrinensedimentenproben für sowohl eukaryotische Parasiten als auch im Darm angesiedelte Mikroben. Manuskript A behandelt ein hochqualititives Mycobacterium tuberculosis-Genom. Die hohe Qualität des Genoms und das genau bekannte Todesjahr des Verstorbenen ermöglichen es uns, das Genom als sicheren Kalibrierungspunkt in der Bayesischen phylogenetischen Analyse zu verwenden und so den letzten gemeinsamen Vorfahren (tMRCA) für den gesamten MTBC und der Linie 4 des MTBC zu bestimmen. Diese Arbeit zeigt, dass der verkalkte Lungenknoten eine ausgezeichnete Quelle für MTBC-DNA darstellt und unterstützt die These der Verbindung zwischen der Entsehung der Tuberkulose und der Ausbreitung der Landwirtschaft und Tierzucht. Manuskript B bietet eine umfassende Untersuchung der DNA-Erhaltung in Zahnstein im Vergleich zum Zahnbein desselben Zahns und bestätigt systematisch Zahnstein als eine hervorragende Konservierungsumgebung für DNA über verschiedene Kontinente, Zeiträume und Individuen hinweg. Alle Zahnsteinproben weisen einen hohen Gehalt an genetischem Material der oralen Mikroben und geringen Mengen an Wirts DNA auf. Die Zahnsteinproben enthielten außerdem weniger Verunreinigungen aus der Umgebung. Interessanterweise enthielt auch das Zahnbein kleine Mengen von oralen Mikroben. Dies zeigt, dass Dentin in einigen Situationen als Proxy für einzelne orale Taxa verwendet werden kann. Diese Arbeit erhebt damit standartisiert die Erwartungen für die Erhaltung von DNA in Zahlstein. In Manuskript C wird eine Fallstudie in der interdisziplinären Paläomikrobiologie vorgestellt. Latrinensedimenteproben aus zwei mittelalterlichen Stätten, die zuvor bereits mikroskopisch analysiert wurden werden genetisch analysiert. Die metagenomischen Profile Zusammenfassung 165 beider Proben wurden auf eukaryotischen Parasiten und Erhaltung des Darm- Mikrobioms hin untersucht. Das Projekt zeigt, wie die Metagenomanalyse die Mikroskopie bei der Untersuchung der Gesundheit vergangener Bevölkerungungen ergänzen kann, indem sie einen genaueren Einblick in das Vorhandensein von Taxa, ihre Abstammungslinie und ihre Genomsequenzen bietet. Genetische Analysen können auch die unsichtbare Welt der zum Darmmikrobiom gehörenden Taxa aufdecken. Allerdings zeigt dieses Projekt auch viele Einschränkungen bei Analysen dieser Art auf. Die meisten Einschränkungen ergeben sich aus dem Mangel an modernen Genomsequenzen für eukaryotische Parasiten und nicht kultivierbarer Darmmikroben. Zusammenfassend untersucht diese Arbeit die Möglichkeiten und Grenzen alter mikrobieller genetischer Daten bei der Erforschung der menschlichen Gesundheit und Krankheiten der Vergangenheit. Zusammenfassend untersucht diese Arbeit die Möglichkeiten und Grenzen alter mikrobieller genetischer Daten bei der Erforschung der menschlichen Gesundheit und Krankheiten der Vergangenheit.

The people who live in the Merapi area have been going on for years. Merapi is the most active volcano in Central Java that can threaten the community, but the community still exists today, of course, having local wisdom in responding to the eruption of Merapi. This study aims to determine the local wisdom of Wonolelo Village before, during, and after the Merapi eruption. In addition, to find out the historical relationship of the Merapi eruption to local wisdom and the challenges faced by Wonolelo Village in maintaining the sustainability of local wisdom. This research was used as a descriptive qualitative method. The method of collecting data is done through observation, in-depth interviews, and documentation. Data sources of this study are community leaders, spiritual leaders, and people who are more than 70 years old. Analysis of the data used is sourced triangulation based on the Miles & Huberman model. The results showed that local wisdom in responding to the Merapi eruption in Wonolelo Village still exists today. Local wisdom is divided into three segments, namely before, during, and after the eruption of Merapi. Local wisdom before the Merapi eruption is a notification that Merapi eruption activity will occur. Local wisdom in Wonolelo Village has challenges in the form of modernization and not running the local wisdom relay to young people. Keywords: Disaster, Local wisdom, Merapi volcano. References Andreastuti, S.D., Newhall, C., Dwiyanto, J. (2006). Menelusuri Kebenaran Letusan Gunung Merapi 1006. Jurnal Geologi Indonesia, Vol. 1, No. 4, Hal. 201-207. Andreastuti, S., Paripurno, E., Gunawan, H., Budianto, A., Syahbana, D., & Pallister, J. (2019). Character of community response to volcanic crises at sinabung and kelud volcanoes.Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research,382, 298-310. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.01.022 Atmojo, S. E., Rusilowati, A., Dwiningrum, S. I. 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Local wisdom-based disaster recovery model in indonesia.Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal,21(3), 351-369. doi:10.1108/09653561211234525 Lestari, P., Kusumayudha, S. B., Paripurno, E. T., & Jayadianti, H. (2016). Environmental communication model for disaster mitigation of mount sinabung eruption karo regency of north sumatra.Information (Japan),19(9B), 4265-4270. Magelang, B. P. S. K. (2018). Kabupaten Magelang dalam Angka. Boyolali : Badan Pusat Statistik Marfai, M.A. (2011). Jakarta flood hazard and community participation on disaster preparedness. Prosiding dalam seminar Community preparedness and disaster management, center for religious and cross-cultural studies, UGMI, no. 2/2011 (december), Hlm, 209-221. Marfai, M.A., & Hizbaron, D.R. (2011). Community's adaptive capacity due to coastal flooding in semarang coastal city, Indonesia. International Journal of Seria Geografie, Annals of the Univeristy of Oradea. E-ISSN 2065-1619. Year XX. 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Den globale befolkning vokser og det samme gør urbaniseringen - i øjeblikket bor over halvdelen af verdensbefolkningen i byområder. Energi- og transportsystemer i byområder er ansvarlige for op til 70% af verdensomspændende drivhusgasemissioner, derfor er klimaforanstaltninger på lokalt plan meget vigtige, hvis målene af Parisaftalen skal opfyldes. Byer anerkender udfordringen og takket være den lokale regerings relativt stabile politiske situation såvel som nærheden til borgerne bliver byerne i stigende grad drivkraften for en bæredygtig energiomstilling. I Danmark implementerer mange kommuner ambitiøs klima- og energipolitik der sigter mod at nå kulstofneutralitet inden for de næste årtier. Planlæggere og beslutningstagere har brug for beslutningsstøtteværktøjer til udarbejdelse af deres strategiske energiplaner. Energisystemmodeller kunne spille en sådanne rolle ved at hjælpe med at vurdere muligheden for projekter inden for vedvarende energi og energibesparelser på et systemniveau, og med at identificere scenarier for en omkostningseffektiv reduktion af CO2 emissioner. Ikke desto mindre er der stadig ikke tilstrækkelig forskning omkring identificering og evaluering af bæredygtige energiscenarier til laveste omkostninger for specifikke lokale energisystemer, egnethedsvurderingen af potentielle værktøjer, der kan bruges, og deres anvendelighed fra kommuneplanlæggernes perspektiv. Derfor undersøger denne ph.d.-afhandling metoderne til at repræsentere byens energisystemer og vurderer, hvilke ændringer er gennemførlige i byernes energisystemer for at reducere CO2 udledningen. Ph.d. afhandlingen anvender matematisk modellering af energiscenarier i tre danske casestudier: Storkøbenhavnsområdet, og to mellemstore kommuner: Helsingør i det østlige Danmark og Sønderborg i det vestlige Danmark. Afhandlingen undersøger også forholdet mellem de tekniske ændringer i energisystemerne forårsaget af en øget andel af vedvarende energi og energieffektivitet, og udvalgte økonomiske egenskaber, såsom systemomkostninger. Derudover bruger den en kvalitativ forskning bestående af interviews og indholdsanalyse for at undersøge rollen af energisystemmodellering i kommunal planlægning. Ph.d. afhandlingen består af fire artikler, der fokuserer på klimaforebyggende handlinger i energiinfrastruktur og det byggede miljø, og forbedringer af modeller og modelleringsprocessen for energisystemer i byer. Denne ph.d. afhandling finder, at det er muligt at betydeligt reducere CO2- emissioner fra energisystemer i byer på en omkostningseffektiv måde ved at implementere en blanding af forskellige typer af energiomdannelse og lagring og en balance mellem fjernvarmeudvidelse og varmebesparelser. Mens de detaljerede konklusioner hovedsageligt finder anvendelse på København, Helsingør og Sønderborg, på et mere generelt niveau er de vejledende for andre områder med lignende klimatiske forhold, befolkning og naturressourcer. Denne ph.d. afhandling betragter fire forskellige energimodelleringsværktøjer og tre forskellige energisystemer som casestudier. Ud fra de anvendte modelleringsværktøjer findes Sifre og Balmorel egnede til at analysere integrerede energisystemer, mens energyPRO og regnearkværktøjet LCT - til at analysere varme og varmebesparelser. Blandt svaghederne ved kvantitativ energiscenariemodellering er en manglende evne til at skildre komplekse og ikke-lineære interaktioner mellem aktører på energiområdet. Derfor skal energisystemmodellering suppleres med andre typer af analyse for bedre at kunne vise bæredygtighedsomstillingen. Den kvalitative analyse viser, at kommunerne ikke er aktive modelbrugere, men er involverede i modelleringsprocessen sammen med konsulentfirmaer, varmeforsyningsfirmaer eller universiteter. Alligevel kan modelleringsprocessen forbedres ved øget indsats for at dele data, antagelser og modeller, interog tværkommunalt samarbejde og konstant dialog om, hvordan man kan gøre værktøjer nyttige til planlægning og implementering af bæredygtighedsmål. Generelt kan resultaterne af denne ph.d. afhandling understøtte planlæggere og beslutningstagere i omstillingen til et mere bæredygtigt planlagt energisystem i en by og på den måde opnå tekniske, miljømæssige, sociale og økonomiske fordele. ; The global population is growing and so is the urbanisation share - currently over half of the world population lives in urban areas. Urban energy and transport systems are responsible for up to 70% of worldwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, therefore the climate action on the local level is crucial if the objectives of the Paris Agreement are to be fulfilled. Owing to the relatively stable political situation of local governments, as well as their closeness to citizens, cities and towns are recognizing the challenge and increasingly becoming the drivers of sustainable energy transition. In Denmark, many municipalities implement ambitious climate and energy policy aiming to reach carbon neutrality within next decades. Planners and decision-makers need decision support tools for devising their strategic energy plans. Energy system models could play such a role by helping assess the feasibility of renewable energy and energy savings projects on a system level and identify scenarios for cost-efficient reduction of CO2 emissions. Nonetheless, there is still not enough research concerning the identification and evaluation of least-cost sustainable energy scenarios for specific local urban energy systems, the suitability assessment of potential tools to be used and their usefulness from the municipal planners' perspective. Therefore, this PhD thesis investigates the methods for representing urban energy systems and assesses what changes are feasible in urban energy systems in order to reduce CO2 emissions. The PhD thesis employs mathematical modelling of energy scenarios for three Danish cases: the Greater Copenhagen area, and two middle-sized municipalities: Helsingør (Elsinore) in eastern Denmark and Sønderborg in western Denmark. The dissertation also examines relations between the technical changes in energy systems caused by increased share of renewables and energy efficiency, and selected economic characteristics, such as system costs. Moreover, it explores the role of energy system modelling in municipal planning using qualitative research consisting of expert interviews and content analysis. The PhD thesis comprises four papers, focusing on climate mitigation actions in the energy infrastructure and the built environment, and improvements of modelling tools and the modelling process of urban energy systems. This PhD thesis finds that it is possible to significantly reduce CO2 emissions from urban energy systems in a cost-effective way by implementing a mix of different energy conversion pathways and energy storage, and a balance between district heating expansion and heat savings. Whereas the detailed findings are applicable mainly for Copenhagen, Helsingør and Sønderborg, on a more general level they are indicative for other areas with similar climatic conditions, population and natural resources. This dissertation considers three different energy modelling tools and three different energy systems as case studies. Out of the modelling tools used, Sifre and Balmorel are found suitable to analyse integrated energy systems, while energyPRO and the spreadsheet tool LCT - to analyse heating and heat savings. Among the weaknesses of quantitative energy scenario modelling is the inability to depict complex and non-linear stakeholder interactions. Therefore, to better portray sustainability transitions, energy system modelling should be, and often is, supplemented by other types of analysis. The qualitative analysis shows that municipalities are not active model users, but are involved in the modelling process together with consultancy firms, heat supply companies or academia. Yet still, the modelling process can be improved by putting more effort into sharing data, assumptions and models, interand cross-municipal collaboration, as well as a constant dialogue on how to make tools useful for planning and implementing sustainability measures. Overall, the findings of this PhD thesis can support planners and decision-makers in the transition towards a more sustainably-planned energy system of a city, allowing achieving technical, environmental, social and economic benefits.

Organophosphorus flame retardants and plasticizers (OPEs) have been utilized for decades as plasticizers and, to a lesser extent, as flame retardants in various consumer products to improve their material properties. With the restriction and ban of the widely used brominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) by, ultimately, the Stockholm Convention due to their adverse effects on humans and the environment, the use of OPEs as replacements has increased rapidly. However, the potential adverse properties, environmental distribution and fate of OPEs are insufficiently understood. The research presented in this thesis investigated the occurrence, distribution and transport of OPEs with a focus on the coastal and estuarine environment. Due to the wide range of physicochemical properties of OPEs, the environmental fate and behaviour of OPEs was investigated over a range of compartments, starting from the atmospheric occurrence to the aquatic phase and the behaviour in sediments. The aim was to gather information on the OPE contamination situation in the coastal and estuarine environments, to identify specific contamination patterns for source assessment and to investigate the distribution behaviour of OPEs between gas- and particle-phases to evaluate their environmental transport mechanism. To achieve these scientific goals, sensitive and robust chemical analytical methods for the detection and quantification of OPEs in a variety of environmental samples using gas-chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry were developed. Water samples were removed along the Elbe and Rhine Rivers to test the hypothesis of whether specific point sources, such as wastewater treatment plants, are the major input pathways for OPE contamination in rivers. A total of 65 water samples, including an intensive measurement campaign during the flood event in 2013 at the Elbe, was taken and analysed for OPEs. No obvious point sources were identified along either of the rivers analysed. No significant increase or decrease in the OPE concentrations or a change in patterns were observed over a transect of over 300 km at the Elbe, with an increase in water discharge of 2.5. This finding suggested that the OPE input in large rivers is primarily driven by diffuse sources, such as surface runoff, or by minor point sources rather than local point sources. To examine the specific pattern of OPE contamination in individual rivers and estuaries, 37 sediment samples from 8 rivers in Europe and China were analysed. With this analytical data, a fingerprint analysis of the OPE patterns identified could be conducted. All the rivers investigated in Europe displayed a very similar fingerprint, which can be explained by the common European market with consistent legislative regulations. In contrast, the fingerprint from China differed significantly from the one in Europe. For example, in China, the OPE restricted in Europe, Tris(2-chloroethly)phosphate, was found to be one of the major OPE components, while Tris(2-butoxyethyl) phosphate, a major compound in Europe, was negligible in China. The investigation showed that the fingerprinting analysis is a useful tool to identify different regions or characterize specific rivers regarding their OPE contamination. In addition, it could be shown that legislative restriction and processes have an impact on local or even EU-wide contamination patterns. At a coastal site next to the German city of Büsum, 58 air samples were taken over one year. Using the newly developed analytical method, it was possible to analyse the gas, as well as the particle phase, of the samples collected with very low detection limits for OPEs. In contrast to expectations, no annual trend in OPE concentrations, phase distributions or patterns was observed, but the investigation of the phase distribution challenged the previous scientific consensus that OPEs occur as primarily bound to particles in the atmosphere. Several compounds were detected in significant amounts in the gas phase. To validate these novel results, a model analysis based on the chemical properties of OPEs was conducted using three different phase distribution models. The results from the environmental data were strongly supported by the simulations, and the formal knowledge could be refuted. Consequently, the atmospheric transport assumptions and estimations about the long-range transport of OPEs have to be reassessed because compounds in the gas phase undergo other types of transport degradation and elimination mechanisms than particle-boundones. The novel findings presented in this thesis challenged an important aspect regarding the perceived scientific knowledge about the behaviour of OPEs in the environment and call on the scientific community to reassess the environmental behaviour of OPEs. The insights presented on the patterns highlight the impact of environmental policies and regulatory mechanisms to work towards the final goal of a good environmental status and the avoidance of adverse effects of discarded chemicals on humans and the environment. ; Organophosphor Flammschutzmittel und Weichmacher (OPEs) wurden seit Dekaden als Weichmacher und in einem geringeren Maß auch als Flammschutzmittel in diversen Produkten eingesetzt um die Eigenschaften von Kunstoffen zu verbessern. Durch die Restriktionen und schlussendlich das Verbot durch die Stockholm Konvention der bromierten Diphenlyethern stieg der Einsatz von OPEs als Ersatzprodukt rasant an. Jedoch sind mögliche negative Umwelteigenschaften, das Verteilungs- und Depositionsverhalten bis heute nicht ausreichend erforscht und evaluiert. Die in dieser Doktorarbeit präsentierten Ergebnisse untersuchen das Auftreten, Verhalten und den Transport von OPEs in der Umwelt, mit einem Fokus auf den Ästuarien- und Küstenbereich. Aufgrund der sehr unterschiedlichen physiko-chemischen Eigenschaften und der daraus resultierenden Möglichkeit in allen Umweltkompartimenten aufzutreten, wurde ein transversaler Schnitt von der Atmosphäre über die aquatische Umwelt bis hin zu den Sedimenten um Mündungsbereich untersucht. Ziel ist es, Informationen über die Kontaminationssituation zu sammeln, Verteilungsmuster für eine Quellenidentifikation zu spezifizieren und das Verteilungsverhalten zwischen Gas- und Partikelphase in der Atmosphäre für eine Evaluation des Transportverhaltens zu untersuchen. Um diese wissenschaftlichen Ziele zu erreichen, wurden mehrere sensitive und robuste chemisch analytische Methoden für Umweltproben entwickelt. Alle Methoden basieren auf deiner chemischen Aufarbeitung, sowie einer Instrumentellen Analyse mit einem Gas-Chromatographen gekoppelt mit einem Tandemassen-Spektrometer. Um die Hypothese zu überprüfen, dass spezifische Punktquellen wie Kläranlagen, die Hauptquellen für die Kontamination von OPEs in Flusssystemen sind, wurden Längsprofile der Flüsse Elbe und Rhein aufgenommen. Insgesamt wurden hierfür 65 Wasserproben auf OPEs analysiert. Die Ergebnisse konnten keine Hauptquellen identifizieren. Auf dem 300 km langen untersuchten Abschnitt der Elbe steigt die Wasserfracht um das 2,5-fach an, jedoch bleiben sowohl die Konzentrationen als auch das Substanzmuster weitestgehend konstant. Hieraus lässt sich ableiten, dass nicht einzelne Hauptquellen für den Input verantwortlich sind sondern die Einträge eher durch kleinere Punktquellen und durch direkten Oberflächenabfluss erfolgt. Um die Substanzmuster in Hinblick auf verschiedene Regionen zu untersuchen, wurden insgesamt 37 Sedimentproben aus 8 Ästuarien und Deltas aus Europa und China analysiert und anhand einer Fingerprint Analyse charakterisiert. Die Flüsse in Europa zeigen einen sehr ähnlichen Fingerprint mit Pearson Korrelationen von bis zu >0.99, die durch den harmonisierten europäischen Markt der EU mit einer abgestimmten Chemikalienregulierung erklärt werden können. Dagegen zeigt sich bei dem Fingerprint aus China ein deutlicher Unterschied zu Europa. Unter anderem ist in China das Tri(2-chlor)ethylphosphat, welches in Europa nur noch eingeschränkt nutzbar ist, eine Hauptkomponente. Im Kontrast dazu ist das Tris(2-butoxyethyl)phosphat, in Europa stark präsent und in China zu vernachlässigen. Insgesamt zeigen die Untersuchungen, dass die Fingerprintanalyse für Schadstoffe wie OPEs ein geeignetes Mittel ist um Regionen zu unterscheiden und Charakteristika herauszuarbeiten. Des Weiteren zeigt sich, dass eine abgestimmte Chemikalienregulierung zu einer übergreifenden Wirkung im Kontaminationsmuster in der Umwelt führt. Für die atmosphärischen Untersuchungen wurden in der Nähe von Büsum über ein Jahr lang 58 Luftproben genommen. Mit der neu entwickelten Analysemethode war es möglich, die Partikelund Gasphasenproben mit sehr geringen Nachweisgrenzen zu untersuchen. Entgegen den Erwartungen konnte weder im Konzentrations- noch im Substanzmuster ein Jahresgang identifiziert werden. Jedoch haben die Untersuchungen des Verteilungsverhaltens zwischen Partikel- und Gasphase, mit einem signifikanten Anteil in der Gasphase, Fragen aufgeworfen. In der bestehenden Literatur wurde dieser Anteil als nebensächlich betrachtet. Um die neuen Resultate zu bestätigen wurde eine modellierende Analyse basierend auf den physiko-chemischen Eigenschaften mit 3 verschiedenen Verteilungsmodellen durchgeführt. Die Modelle bestätigen das chemisch analytisch gefundene Verteilungsverhalten und stellen damit die bisherigen Studien in Frage. Das Verteilungsverhalten bestimmt atmosphärische Transport-, Abbau- und Eliminationsmechanismen, daher müssen die Annahmen und Berechnungen zum Langstreckentransport von OPEs in der Atmosphäre überprüft werden. Die neuen Erkenntnisse, welche in dieser Doktorarbeit präsentiert werden, stellen einige wissenschaftliche Annahmen zum Umweltverhalten von OPEs infrage und fordern die Wissenschaftsgemeinschaft dazu auf, das Umweltverhalten von OPEs neu einzuschätzen. Die Erkenntnisse zum Substanzmuster zeigen die Wirksamkeit der Umweltregulation hinsichtlich des übergeordneten Ziels des guten Umweltzustands und der Vermeidung von negativen Effekten von Chemikalien auf Mensch und Umwelt.

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Inngangur: Þegar kona verður þunguð, eiga sér stað miklar breytingar á æðakerfi hennar, til að mæta aukinni blóðþörf til fylgju og fósturs og tryggja eðlilegan vöxt fóstursins. Til að þetta sé hægt, þarf stækkun á æðum sem flytja blóð til fóstursins að eiga sér stað. Ef þessar breytingar á æðakerfi ná ekki að myndast, getur það leitt til ýmissa meðgöngutengdra sjúkdóma, eins og meðgöngueitrun. Tíðni meðgöngueitrunar er um 2-5% þungana í Evrópu og lýsir sér sem nýtilkominn háþrýstingur og því fylgir mælanlegt prótein í þvagi. Fylgjuprótein 13 (PP13, placental protein 13) er prótein sem er eingöngu seytt af fylgju og mælist í blóði mæðra frá fimmtu viku meðgöngu. Konur sem eru í áhættuhópi reynast vera með mun lægra magn af PP13 í sermi, en konur með heilbrigða meðgöngu. Því hefur verið lagt til að próteinið megi nýtast til greiningar á konum sem eru líklegri að þróa með sér meðgöngueitrun. Markmið: 1) Að skoða skammtíma- og langtímaáhrif proteins á æðakerfið í kringum legið (Grein III). 2) Að skilgreina verkunarmáta próteinsins á einangraðar legæðar úr rottum (Grein I). 3) Að meta áhrif próteinsins á æðakerfið í kringum legið og fósturvöxt í rottum. 4) Að meta lyfjahvörf próteinsins í kanínum (Grein II). Aðferðir og niðurstöður: Osmótískar dælur voru ígræddar í óþungaðar rottur sem losuðu um 10 µl/klst og tæmdu sig á sjö dögum. Sum dýranna (n=11) voru aflifuð eftir sjö daga meðferð til að meta skammtímaáhrifin, en önnur (n=16) voru aflifuð eftir 13 daga til að meta langtímaáhrif próteinsins á æðakerfið. Þvermál slag- og bláæða úr legi voru borin saman á milli hópa. Marktækur munur sást á öllum æðum í bæði langtíma- og skammtímahópnum. Til að skilgreina verkunarhátt fylgjupróteins 13, voru legslagæðar einangraðar og settar í sérhæfðan æðamæli (e. arteriograph). Próteinið reyndist hafa æðavíkkandi áhrif (38-50%) sem hægt var að hemja með því að hinda aðgengi nituroxíðs og arakídónsýru. Áhrifin hurfu ef æðaþelið var fjarlægt. EC50 mældist undir 1pM. Áhrif próteinsins í þunguðum rottum með ígræddar osmótískar dælur sem fengu nituroxíðhindra í drykkjarvatni leiddi í ljós marktækt minni unga samanborið við viðmiðunarhópinn. Þessi áhrif snertu einnig meginlegslagæð (MUA) og legbláæðar (RUV). Lyfjahvörf fylgjupróteins 13, sem fóru fram í kanínum, voru skoðuð með því að gefa þrjá mismunandi styrki af próteininu (5 ng/mL, 10 ng/mL og 50 ng/mL) í æð (I.V.), og síðan einn styrkur (50 ng/mL) var gefinn undir húð (S.C.). Blóðþéttni var mæld með ELISA prófi og lyfjahvarfafræðileg heðgun próteinsins reiknuð út, sem fylgdi svokölluðu tveggja-hólfa kerfi. Helmingunartíminn var marktækt hærri hjá S.C. hópnum (p<0.01), en það kom í ljós að bæði dreifirúmmál og flatarmálið undir ferlinum (AUC) reyndust vera skammtaháð milli I.V. hópanna. Ályktanir: Niðurstöðurnar sýndu að fylgjuprótein 13 hefur veruleg æðavíkkandi áhrif, sem jafnframt hefur jákvæð áhrif á vöxt fylgju og fósturs. Þetta prótein gæti verið lykilþáttur í undirbúningi æðakerfisins fyrir aukið blóðflæði síðar á meðgöngunni. Lyfjahvarfafræðilegar athuganir sýna að magn próteinsins sem er losað úr fylgju gæti verið mun hærri en áður var talið. Frekari rannsókna er þörf til að fá dýpri innsýn í áhrif þessa próteins á æðakerfi manna. Niðurstöður okkar er mikil hvatning fyrir áframhaldandi rannsóknum til að meta fylgjuprótein 13 sem mögulegan lyfjasprota til að fyrirbyggja meðgöngueitrun og aðra meðgöngutenda sjúkdóma sem tengjast ófullnægjandi blóðflæði til legs og fylgju. ; Background: During pregnancy extensive hemodynamic changes are required for optimal fetal growth and utero-placental circulation adaptation to increased blood volume. If those changes are altered or fail to occur they may lead to pathological pregnancies and preeclampsia. Preeclampsia is an obstetrical syndrome associated with high blood pressure and altered organ function that affects 2-5% of pregnant women. Placental protein 13 (PP13) is secreted solely by placenta and has been proposed as a potential biomarker whilst its serum levels in early pregnancy in women at risk are much lower than those in healthy pregnancies. Aims: First, to study the long and short term effects (Paper III), and evaluate overall effect of PP13 exposure on uterine vasculature, and the fetal outcome in rats. Second aim is to define the mechanism of action in isolated rat arteries in vitro (Paper I). The final aim is to evaluate the pharmacokinetic profile of PP13 in rabbits (Paper II). Methods and Main Results: Slow-release osmotic pums loaded with protein or saline were implanted in periscapular region in non-pregnt rats, releasing its content for seven days. Some animals (n=11) were sacrified after seven days with the pump (short-term), and some animals (n=16) were sacrified after thirteen days (long-term). The diameter of arteries and veins were compared between groups, resulting in significant vascular expansion of all vessels in rPP13 group both in short and long-term. Histidine tagged PP13 variant (his-PP13), caused significant vessel expansion in radial arteries, and only in short-term. Study conducted in pregnant rats, by inserting the osmotic pump at the time of placentation, in which some rats were treated with L-NAME via drinking water in order to inhibit the main vasodilation pathway (eNOS). The results showed that rPP13 treated animals had heavier pups and bigger placentas, in comparison to the control. All L-NAME treated groups resulted in significantly smaller pups and placentas in comparison to the control. Main uterine artery (MUA) and radial uterine veins (RUV) expansion in L-NAME treated animals were significatntly lower compared to the control. To study the mechanism of action uterine vessels were isolated and cannulated in arteriograph maintained at constant pressure of 50 mmHg. Vessels were then preconstricted and exposed to increasing concentrations of rPP13 (10-13 to 10-8 M). rPP13 elicited 38-50% arterial vasodilation mediated via endothelial signaling pathways of nitric oxide and arachidonic acid, with half maximal response (EC50) of approx. 1pM. In order to establish pharmacokinetic profile of PP13, three different concentrations of the protein (5 ng/mL, 10 ng/mL and 50 ng/mL) were administrated intravenously (I.V.) and one concentration (50 ng/mL) was administrated subcutaneously (S.C.) in New Zealand White rabbits. The serum levels of the protein were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The pharmacokinetic profile is described as two-compartment model. The elimination half-life was found to be different between the groups (p<0.01), and volume of distribution and area under the curve were found to be dose dependent. Conclusion: The results indicate that PP13 is a potent vasodilator, has a positive effect on fetal growth and may be a key factor in preconditioning the uterine vasculature in order to accommodate the blood flow increase during pregnancy. In addition pharmacokinetic studies indicate that the concentration of total PP13 released into maternal circulation may be much higher than previously estimated. Further studies are required in order to get an insight into the effect on human vasculature, however, these results encourage evaluation of PP13 as a potential therapeutic agent for obstetric syndromes characterized by insufficient uteroplacental blood flow. ; The project was funded by: Icelandic Centre for Research (RANNIS), European Union (FP7) through the ASPRE project (601852) and Hananja ehf.