Suchergebnisse

Purpose
This paper aims to address the reasons behind the varying levels of volatile conflict and peace as seen during the Arab Spring of 2011 to 2015. During this time, higher rates of conflict transition occurred than normally observed in previous studies for certain Middle Eastern and North African countries.


Design/methodology/approach
Previous prediction models decrease in accuracy during times of volatile conflict transition. Also, proper strategies for handling the Arab Spring have been highly debated. This paper identifies which countries were affected by the Arab Spring and then applies data analysis techniques to predict a country's tendency to suffer from high-intensity, violent conflict. A large number of open-source variables are incorporated by implementing an imputation methodology useful to conflict prediction studies in the future. The imputed variables are implemented in four model building techniques: purposeful selection of covariates, logical selection of covariates, principal component regression and representative principal component regression resulting in modeling accuracies exceeding 90 per cent.


Findings
Analysis of the models produced by the four techniques supports hypotheses which propose political opportunity and quality of life factors as causations for increased instability following the Arab Spring.


Originality/value
Of particular note is that the paper addresses the reasons behind the varying levels of volatile conflict and peace as seen during the Arab Spring of 2011 to 2015 through data analytics. This paper considers various open-source, readily available data for inclusion in multiple models of identified Arab Spring nations in addition to implementing a novel imputation methodology useful to conflict prediction studies in the future.

International audience ; The present paper investigates the effect of the revolution occurred in January 2011 in Egypt on the Preferences of Redistribution. This shock has been an important event enhancing the freedom situation and political structure. In a first step taking into account the main determinants explaining Preferences of Redistribution displayed in literature, our results differ showing a positive impact of the religion and a negative impact of the altruistic attitude. In a second step, we rely on a diff-in-diff approach to estimate the effect of the revolution using as control group three similar countries. We find that Egyptians became much more favorable to redistribution after the Arab Spring. Moreover, the revolution effect is stronger for the poorest people and those who are interested in politics.

International audience ; The present paper investigates the effect of the revolution occurred in January 2011 in Egypt on the Preferences of Redistribution. This shock has been an important event enhancing the freedom situation and political structure. In a first step taking into account the main determinants explaining Preferences of Redistribution displayed in literature, our results differ showing a positive impact of the religion and a negative impact of the altruistic attitude. In a second step, we rely on a diff-in-diff approach to estimate the effect of the revolution using as control group three similar countries. We find that Egyptians became much more favorable to redistribution after the Arab Spring. Moreover, the revolution effect is stronger for the poorest people and those who are interested in politics.

Since 2011, democratic transitions in the Middle East and North Africa have mostly failed to consolidate and have been hindered by the difficult economic heritage of previous authoritarian governments. Yet newly established democratic governments must deliver on the expectations of their people, especially the poorer strata, otherwise disillusionment may open the door to restoration of authoritarian rule. Can democracy succeed? Various ideas for economic policies that may help consolidate the early democratisation process are proposed in this volume, while major obstacles on the way to democratic success are also highlighted.

The Arab Spring offers uncertain promise for effective action on Palestine. While the mobilisation of civil society throughout the Arab world cannot but give voice to popular support for Palestine, continuing strategic weaknesses may well limit the effective translation of these sentiments in the political, diplomatic and indeed military landscape.

The Palestinian question has been deeply influenced by regional political trends for the last six decades. Palestinians have been exposed to external and internal Arab politics, suffering - from the Lebanese civil war of 1976-1989, the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1991, the American occupation of Iraq in 2003, and the Arab Spring since 2010. Those examples remind of the fragility of the Palestinian issue and its deep dependence on stability in the Arab World. The issue of present developments in the Arab region, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the peace process in the Middle East are highly correlated. ; Kwestia palestyńska od ponad sześćdziesięciu lat jest determinowana wydarzeniami regionalnymi. Palestyńczycy byli narażeni na konsekwencje międzynarodowych i wewnętrznych niepokojów w państwach arabskich, poczynając od konfliktu w Libanie (1976-1989), rewolucji w Iranie (1979), przez iracką agresję na Kuwejt (1991), amerykańską okupację Iraku (2003-), po Arabską wiosnę zapoczątkowaną wydarzeniami z 2010 r. Przykłady te wskazują w jak dużym stopniu przyszłość tzw. sprawy palestyńskiej jest uzależniona od stabilizacji w świecie arabskim. Obecne wydarzenia w państwach arabskich, konflikt izraelsko-palestyński i proces pokojowy na Bliskim Wchodzie są ze sobą ściśle powiązane.

UID/CPO/04627/2013 SFRH/BD/86650/2012 ; This communication explores how the Arab democratic wave affect(ed) the migratory fluxes within the Mediterranean region and aims to deconstruct the common perception of "immigrant invasion" in Europe. The increased instability of the Mediterranean region has highlighted the migratory pressure and triggered two massive refugee crises in Southern Mediterranean, Libya and Syria. The political and social tensions of the Arab Spring have shaken these states economies and have changed migration patterns and challenged regional security. Nevertheless, the Arab Spring did not cause a massive influx of migration to Europe. On the contrary, the population affected looked for shelter mostly in neighbouring countries (South-South mobility). Focusing in the MENA countries, it is our aim to deconstruct these perceptions of large-scalefluxes regarding Mediterranean migrations and analyse how the securitisation process is changing the European border management. ; publishersversion ; published

The Arab Spring exemplifies to many a kind of globalisation from below. It cuts across borders and challenges liberal and technocratic élites. But how far does its global resonance really go? Are publics still largely corralled within national political spaces? Are waves of revolt confined by civilisational breakwaters? Or is the cosmopolitan space that many leftists envision taking shape? Based on a three-country survey of university students, this article probes these assumptions. It finds far-reaching solidarity with the aspirations of the Arab Spring, driven by the rise of a cross-border global society. But on probing the bases of such solidarity, it also finds that the cosmopolitan cohort emerging in the Global South does not fit a simple liberal or leftist mould. The Arab Spring resonates on multiple frequencies at the same time. This complex cosmopolitanism has implications for layers of common ground as global political opportunity structures emerge.

The Arab Spring of 2011 is widely viewed today as one of the great historical moments of political transformation. Comparisons have been made to the European revolutions of 1848 and the post–cold war democratic transitions in Eastern Europe, while some have spoken of a possible "fourth wave" of democratization. These analogies make sense given that longstanding dictators who seemed impervious to political change, in a region known for persistent authoritarianism, were suddenly toppled by largely nonviolent protesters invoking the universal themes of political freedom, dignity, and social justice. From the outset, however, the Arab Spring was met by a small chorus of criticism and contempt from prominent intellectuals, writers, and politicians.