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Seit der Reorganisation des höheren Schulwesens vor etwa 200 Jahren haben sich mit bemerkenswerter Regelmäßigkeit Überfüllungs- und Mangelphasen im höheren Lehramt wiederholt, wie sich am preußischen Beispiel zeigen läßt. Anhand statistischer Indikatoren werden die Wechsellagen seit dem ausgehenden 18. Jahrhundert rekonstruiert und wesentliche Bedingungsfaktoren transparent gemacht. Die Nachkriegsentwicklung in der Bundesrepublik ist perspektivisch einbezogen. Die Analyse legt den Schluß nahe, daß der Lehrerzyklus auf einem komplexen langfristig angelegten Wirkungszusammenhang basiert, der durch hohe Eigendynamik bestimmt ist. Nach den historischen Erfahrungen scheint die "Politik" kaum imstande zu sein, diese eigensinnige Beharrlichkeit der Zyklen zu dämpfen. (DIPF/Orig.)

The stagnation of the economy in the Euro area since 2000 is closely connected to the dominance of purely long-run supply-side oriented policies in the Euro area. While exports and profits soared, domestic demand has been weak. The neglect of cyclical and demand factors appears to be the major deficiency of the EU policy guidelines, the Lisbon strategy and the Brussels/Paris (European Commission–OECD) consensus on growth policy. Monetary policy in the Euro area is only slightly expansionary, fiscal policy is at the best on a neutral stance and social reforms are deterring consumers. Cyclical and demand considerations are not only denied in the short term, but also in the medium term. In fact, growth differentials in the period 1995 and 2005 can largely be explained by rising house prices as well as by the adoption of anti-cyclical policies in Anglo-Saxon and Scandinavian countries rather than by "structural reforms". In the long run, there prevails an interaction between supply and demand factors as well. Higher expenditure on R&D and education (input factors) are important to improve potential economic growth, this will however only materialise if effective demand is sufficiently high.

AbstractSince the early 1990s, a number of researchers have put forward evidence of strong demographic effects on housing demands. More recently, a number of studies have pointed to the effect of housing market conditions on family formation. This implies that housing markets are influenced by population change, but also that the housing market conditions influence population change. In this study, a model of demographic effects on the housing market that has been estimated on regional panel data will be used to explore these interrelationships. First, it is shown that the age effects identified in sub‐national data are present also in cross‐national data. Second, it is shown that high demographic pressure on house prices is associated with low fertility. The findings are discussed in relation to the Easterlin's hypothesis about the effects of cohort crowding on fertility. In Easterlin's model, cohort effects on earnings drive fertility shifts. The analysis presented, herein, indicates that cohort effects in the housing market can be equally important. Finally, the estimated models are used to outline possible future trends in house prices and fertility. The results indicate that house price increases can slow down and that there can be some recovery from very low fertility rates.

The plausibility of expectations-driven cyclical fluctuations in an otherwise standard one-sector real business cycle model with variable capital utilization and mild increasing returns-to-scale in production is examined. Due to a dominating wealth effect, our model is able to generate qualitatively as well as quantitatively realistic aggregate fluctuations driven by news impulses to future consumption demand or government spending on goods and services. When the economy is subject to anticipated total factor productivity or investment-specific technology shocks, the relative strength of the intertemporal substitution effect needs to be enhanced for our model to exhibit positive macroeconomic co-movement and business cycle statistics that are consistent with the data.

We show that an otherwise standard one-sector real business cycle model with variable capital utilization and mild increasing returns-to-scale is able to generate qualitatively as well as quantitatively realistic aggregate fluctuations driven by news shocks to two formulations of future consumption demand or government spending on goods and services. In sharp contrast to many studies in the existing expectations-driven business cycle literature, this result does not rely on non-separable preferences or investment adjustment costs. When the economy is subject to anticipated total factor productivity or investment-specific technology shocks, the relative strength of the intertemporal substitution effect needs to be enhanced for our model to exhibit positive macroeconomic co-movement and business cycle statistics that are consistent with the data.