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Abstract. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major concern throughout High Mountain Asia, where societal impacts can extend far downstream. This is
particularly true for transboundary Himalayan basins, where risks are expected to further increase as new lakes develop. Given the need for
anticipatory approaches to disaster risk reduction, this study aims to demonstrate how the threat from a future lake can be feasibly assessed
alongside that of worst-case scenarios from current lakes, as well as how this information is relevant for disaster risk management. We have focused on two previously identified dangerous lakes (Galongco and Jialongco), comparing the timing and magnitude of simulated worst-case outburst events from these lakes both in the Tibetan town of Nyalam and downstream at the border with Nepal. In addition, a future scenario has been assessed, whereby an avalanche-triggered GLOF was simulated for a potential large new lake forming upstream of Nyalam. Results show that large (>20×106 m3) rock and/or ice avalanches could generate GLOF discharges at the border with Nepal that are more than 15 times larger than what has been observed previously or anticipated based on more gradual breach simulations. For all assessed lakes, warning times in Nyalam would be only 5–11 min and 30 min at the border. Recent remedial measures undertaken to lower the water level at Jialongco would have little influence on downstream impacts resulting from a very large-magnitude GLOF, particularly in Nyalam where there has been significant development of infrastructure directly within the high-intensity flood zone. Based on these findings, a comprehensive approach to disaster risk management is called for, combining early warning systems with effective land use zoning and programmes to build local response capacities. Such approaches would address the current drivers of GLOF risk in the basin while remaining robust in the face of worst-case, catastrophic outburst events that become more likely under a warming climate.

Funding: This study was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20100300) and the Swiss National Science Foundation (200021E_177652/1). NN received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 programme (No. 689443). ; Knowledge about the long-term response of High Mountain Asian glaciers to climatic variations is paramount because of their important role in sustaining Asian river flow. Here, a satellite-based time series of glacier mass balance for seven climatically different regions across High Mountain Asia since the 1960s shows that glacier mass loss rates have persistently increased at most sites. Regional glacier mass budgets ranged from −0.40 ± 0.07 m w.e.a−1 in Central and Northern Tien Shan to −0.06 ± 0.07 m w.e.a−1 in Eastern Pamir, with considerable temporal and spatial variability. Highest rates of mass loss occurred in Central Himalaya and Northern Tien Shan after 2015 and even in regions where glaciers were previously in balance with climate, such as Eastern Pamir, mass losses prevailed in recent years. An increase in summer temperature explains the long-term trend in mass loss and now appears to drive mass loss even in regions formerly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. ; Publisher PDF ; Peer reviewed

In north-western Tibet (34.0 degrees N, 82.2 degrees E) near lake Aru Co, the entire ablation areas of two glaciers (Aru-1 and Aru-2) suddenly collapsed on 17 July and 21 September 2016. The masses transformed into ice avalanches with volumes of 68 and 83 x 10(6) m(3) and ran out up to 7 km in horizontal distance, killing nine people. The only similar event currently documented is the 130 x 10(6) m(3) Kolka Glacier rock and ice avalanche of 2002 (Caucasus Mountains). Using climatic reanalysis, remote sensing, and three-dimensional thermo-mechanical modelling, we reconstructed the Aru glaciers' thermal regimes, thicknesses, velocities, basal shear stresses, and ice damage prior to the collapse in detail. Thereby, we highlight the potential of using emergence velocities to constrain basal friction in mountain glacier models. We show that the frictional change leading to the Aru collapses occurred in the temperate areas of the polythermal glaciers and is not related to a rapid thawing of cold based ice. The two glaciers experienced a similar stress transfer from predominant basal drag towards predominant lateral shearing in the detachment areas and during the 5-6 years before the collapses. A high-friction patch is found under the Aru-2 glacier tongue, but not under the Aru-1 glacier. This difference led to disparate behaviour of both glaciers, making the development of the instability more visible for the Aru-1 glacier through enhanced crevassing and terminus advance over a longer period. In comparison, these signs were observable only over a few days to weeks (crevasses) or were absent (advance) for the Aru-2 glacier. Field investigations reveal that those two glaciers were underlain by soft, highly erodible, and fine-grained sedimentary lithologies. We propose that the specific bedrock lithology played a key role in the two Tibet and the Caucasus Mountains giant glacier collapses documented to date by producing low bed roughness and large amounts of till, rich in clay and silt with a low friction angle. The twin 2016 Aru collapses would thus have been driven by a failing basal substrate linked to increasing pore water pressure in the subglacial drainage system in response to increases in surface melting and rain during the 5-6 years preceding the collapse dates. ; European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007-2013)/ERC grant [320816]; ESA projects Glaciers_cci [4000109873/14/I-NB]; DUE GlobPermafrost [4000116196/15/IN-B]; French Space Agency (CNES); Programme National de Teledetection Spatiale grant [PNTS-2016-01]; CAS Strategic Priority Research [XDA20000000]; NASA (High Mountain Asia Team) ; Open Access Journal. ; This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.

Abstract. The Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings have recently experienced several catastrophic glacier-related disasters. It is of great scientific and practical significance to establish ground-based early warning systems (EWSs) to understand the processes and mechanisms of glacial disasters and warn against potential threats to downstream settlements and infrastructure. However, there are few sophisticated EWSs on the Tibetan Plateau. With the support of the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STPSER), an EWS was developed and
implemented in the Sedongpu Valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, where
repeated river blockages have occurred due to ice/rock collapse debris flow.
The EWS collected datasets of optical/thermal videos/photos, geophone
waveforms, water levels, and meteorological variables in this sparsely
populated zone. It has successfully warned against three ice-rock collapse–debris flow–river blockage chain events, and seven small-scale ice-rock collapse–debris flow events. Meanwhile, it was found that the low-cost geophone can effectively indicate the occurrence and magnitude of ice/rock collapses by local thresholds, and water level observation is an efficient way to warn of river blockages. Our observations showed that there were no immediate meteorological triggers for the ice-rock collapses and associated debris flows. Several factors, such as the volume and location of the collapses and the percentage of ice content involved, influence the velocities of debris flows and the magnitude of river blockages. There are still two possible glaciers in the study area that are at risk of ice collapse. It is worth monitoring their dynamic changes using high-resolution satellite data and the ground-based EWS to safeguard the surrounding hydrological projects and infrastructure in this transboundary region.

Abstract
Third Pole natural cascade alpine lakes (NCALs) are exceptionally sensitive to climate change, yet the underlying cryosphere-hydrological processes and associated societal impacts are largely unknown. Here, with a state-of-the-art cryosphere-hydrology-lake-dam model, we quantified the notable high-mountain Hoh-Xil NCALs basin (including Lakes Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel, and Yanhu, from upstream to downstream) formed by the Lake Zonag outburst in September 2011. We demonstrate that long-term increased precipitation and accelerated ice and snow melting as well as short-term heavy precipitation and earthquake events were responsible for the Lake Zonag outburst; while the permafrost degradation only had a marginal impact on the lake inflows but was crucial to lakeshore stability. The quadrupling of the Lake Yanhu area since 2012 was due to the tripling of inflows (from 0.25 to 0.76 km3/year for 1999 to 2010 and 2012 to 2018, respectively). Prediction of the NCALs changes suggests a high risk of the downstream Qinghai–Tibet Railway, necessitating timely adaptions/mitigations.