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Das Papier untersucht mögliche Auswirkungen eines EU-Beitritts der Türkei auf die Märkte für Agrarprodukte und Nahrungsmittel. Hierfür wird AGMEMOD, ein ökonometrisch geschätztes, dynamisches Multi-Produkt-Multi-Markt-Gleichgewichtsmodell der EU- Landwirtschaft um ein türkisches Modell erweitert und damit anschließend die Auswirkung der Erweiterung quantifiziert. Um das Modell für die Türkei zu etablieren, müssen Modellgleichungen geschätzt oder synthetische Parameter abgeleitet und kalibriert werden. Dies bedarf einer entsprechenden Datenbasis für die Türkei, die Zeitreihen über die Produktion, Marktbilanzen und Preise für Agrarprodukte sowie makroökonomische und politische Variablen enthält. Diese Daten bilden die Grundlage für die Schätzung der Modellparameter, die dann anschließend in ein Modellsystem für die Türkei integriert und so für Simulationen operationalisiert werden. Ergebnisse einer Beitrittssimulation mit Hilfe dieses Modells zeigen, dass der dominierende Effekt in einem Preisrückgang auf vielen türkischen Agrarmärkten besteht, der dann weitere Anpassungsprozesse induziert. Die entkoppelten Zahlungen der EU-Agrarpolitik sind oftmals geringer als viele gekoppelte Zahlungen in der Türkei. Preissenkungen sowie vergleichsweise niedrigere Direktzahlungen wirken sich negativ auf die Landwirte in der pflanzlichen Produktion ausgenommen Tabak aus. Dagegen profitieren die Verbraucher durch niedrigere Marktpreise. Im Gegensatz zur pflanzlichen Produktion dämpfen niedrigere Futtermittelpreise die Effekte in der tierischen Produktion. ; This paper examines possible impacts of a Turkish accession to the EU on the agricultural markets in Turkey and the EU. AGMEMOD, an econometric, dynamic, multi-market, partial equilibrium economic model for EU agriculture at Member State level, has been extended with a model for the Turkish agricultural sector and afterwards applied to gain quantitative insights into Turkish accession effects. To establish a model for Turkey, the implementation of the model equations required parameter estimates, or the specification of synthetic model parameters. A database with time series on Turkish agricultural production, market balances and prices, macroeconomic variables and policy variables was developed in order to estimate such model parameters and to build an operational Turkish agriculture sector model. Most results show that the dominant impact of the Turkish accession on Turkish agriculture is a reduction of domestic producer prices, which induces further market effects. The – mostly decoupled – CAP support payments will induce smaller incentives to increase production than those which Turkish farmers receive prior to the EU accession. In Turkey effects of accession to the EU will be mostly negative for crop producers (except for tobacco), whereas the consumers are expected to gain from lower market prices. In contrast, producers of sheep meat, broiler and dairy milk could gain from an accession due to lower feed costs

Dieser Artikel analysiert die Folgen der verstärkten Biokraftstoffnachfrage in verschiedenen Regionen bzw. Ländern, die Pläne zur Implementierung oder zur Erweiterung bestehender Biokraftstoffpolitiken angekündigt haben. Die Analyse berücksichtigt nicht nur verpflichtende, sondern auch freiwillige Beimischungsziele für Kraftstoffe. Der hier gewählte quantitative Ansatz kombiniert zwei unterschiedliche Modelle: Zum einen ein gesamtwirtschaftliches Wirtschaftsmodell (LEITAP) und zum anderen ein räumliches biophysikalisches Landnutzungsmodell (IMAGE). Dieses Papier ergänzt die bestehenden Forschungsergebnisse durch eine umfassende Berücksichtigung von Biokraftstoffpolitiken nicht nur in der EU und den USA, sondern auch in verschiedenen anderen Ländern wie Brasilien, Indien und China. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich Agrarpreise und Treibhausgasemissionen aufgrund von Landnutzungsänderungen nicht proportional zur steigenden Nachfrage nach landwirtschaftlichen Rohprodukten für die Biokraftstoffproduktion verändern. Dieses hinsichtlich Lebensmittelsicherung und Klimawandel wesentliche Ergebnis sollte bei einer notwendigen Neugestaltung von Biokraftstoffpolitik in Betracht gezogen werden. ; This article analyzes the consequences of enhanced biofuel demand in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers not only mandatory blending targets for transportation fuels, but also voluntary ones. The chosen quantitative modeling approach is two-fold: it combines a multi-sectoral economic model (LEITAP) with a spatial bio-physical land use model (IMAGE 2.4). This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the combination of the two modeling systems allows for the observation of changes in both economic and bio-physical indicators. The results show that some indicators with high political relevance, such as agricultural prices and greenhouse gas emissions from land use, do not necessarily react proportionally to increasing demand for agricultural products from the biofuel sector. This finding should be considered when designing biofuel policies because these indicators are directly relevant for food security and climate change.

Climate-driven changes in aquatic environments have already started to affect the European aquaculture sector's most commercially important finfish and shellfish species. In addition to changes in water quality and temperature that can directly influence fish production by altering health status, growth performance and/or feed conversion, the aquaculture sector also faces an uncertain future in terms of production costs and returns. For example, the availability of key ingredients for fish feeds (proteins, omega-3 fatty acids) will not only depend on future changes in climate, but also on social and political factors, thereby influencing feed costs. The future cost of energy, another main expenditure for fish farms, will also depend on various factors. Finally, marketing options and subsidies will have major impacts on future aquaculture profitability. Based on the framework of four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU H2020 project climate change and European aquatic resources (CERES), we defined how these key factors for the aquaculture sector could change in the future. We then apply these scenarios to make projections of how climate change and societal and economic trends influence the mid-century (2050) profitability of European aquaculture. We used an established benchmarking approach to contrast present-day and future economic performance of "typical farms" in selected European production regions under each of the scenarios termed "World Markets," "National Enterprise," "Global Sustainability" and "Local Stewardship." These scenarios were based partly on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios framework and their representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the widely used shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Together, these scenarios contrast local versus international emphasis on decision making, more versus less severe environmental change, and different consequences for producers due to future commodity prices, cash returns, and costs. The mid-century profitability of the typical farms was most sensitive to the future development of feed costs, price trends of returns, and marketing options as opposed to the direct effect of climate-driven changes in the environment. These results can inform adaptation planning by the European aquaculture sector. Moreover, applying consistent scenarios including societal and economic dimensions, facilitates regional to global comparisons of adaptation advice both within and across Blue Growth sectors.

In this paper, we explore the extent to which the evolution of the EU food system to 2030 is likely to contribute to achieving dedicated SDGs considering also interactions, synergies, and trade- offs with the rest of the world. Given the multiplicity of the SDGs, we examine a subset of goals and indicators, related to major social, economic, and environmental issues. In particular, we trace the developments of representative SDG indicators up to 2030 in order to identify possible synergies and trade-offs towards meeting these goals using a modelling toolbox comprised of economic agricultural sector models. FIT4FOOD2030 deliverable 2.1 (Wepner et al., 2018) has discussed several foresight drivers in detail and in isolation. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted by all United Nations member states in 2015, are an urgent call for action by all countries - developed and developing - as they recognize the importance of working together to combat the growing challenges facing the world. The multiple development goals with a focus on sustainability cover a wide range of social, economic, and environmental topics including, but not limited to, ending poverty, improving health and education, reducing inequality, spurring economic growth, tackling climate change, and preserving natural resources. As the heart of the 2030 agenda, these well-inclusive policy goals provide a shared blueprint for prosperity for all people on the planet, with a clear-targeted, traceable, and measurable approach. There is an expanding literature that has assessed the importance of food systems transformation in achieving the global goals. Agricultural development is essential for the reduction of poverty and hunger (World Bank 2008). Natural resource use related to agriculture and food is inequitable at present, and the benefits from the food system are unequally distributed (The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB), 2018). In order to achieve the SDGs there is a need for combined action towards a food supply that is ...

It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need to make projections in order to test adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to build resilience to long-term shocks. This paper introduces exploratory scenarios with a particular focus on European aquaculture and fisheries and describes how these scenarios were designed. Short-, medium- and long-term developments in socio-political drivers may be just as important in determining profits, revenues and prospects in the aquaculture and fisheries industries as physical drivers such as long-term climate change. Four socio-political-economic futures were developed, based partly on the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) framework and partly on the newer system of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). 'Off theshelf' narrative material as well as quantitative outputs were 'borrowed' from earlier frameworks but supplemented with material generated through in-depth stakeholder workshops involving industry and policy makers. Workshop participants were tasked to outline how they thought their sector might look under the four future worlds and, in particular, to make use of the PESTEL conceptual framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) as an aide memoire to help define the scope of each scenario. This work was carried out under the auspices of the EU Horizon2020 project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources), and for each 'CERES scenario' (World Markets, National Enterprise, Global Sustainability and Local Stewardship), additional quantitative outputs were generated, including projections of future fuel and fish prices, using the MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral EquilibriumTool) modeling framework. In developing and applying the CERES scenarios, we have demonstrated that the basic architecture is sufficiently flexible to be used at a wide diversity of scales. We urge the climate science community to adopt a similar scenarios framework, based around SSPs, to facilitate global cross-comparison of fisheries and aquaculture model outputs more broadly and to harmonize communication regarding potential future bioeconomic impacts of climate change.

Climate-driven changes in aquatic environments have already started to affect the European aquaculture sector's most commercially important finfish and shellfish species. In addition to changes in water quality and temperature that can directly influence fish production by altering health status, growth performance and/or feed conversion, the aquaculture sector also faces an uncertain future in terms of production costs and returns. For example, the availability of key ingredients for fish feeds (proteins, omega-3 fatty acids) will not only depend on future changes in climate, but also on social and political factors, thereby influencing feed costs. The future cost of energy, another main expenditure for fish farms, will also depend on various factors. Finally, marketing options and subsidies will have major impacts on future aquaculture profitability. Based on the framework of four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU H2020 project climate change and European aquatic resources (CERES), we defined how these key factors for the aquaculture sector could change in the future. We then apply these scenarios to make projections of how climate change and societal and economic trends influence the mid-century (2050) profitability of European aquaculture. We used an established benchmarking approach to contrast present-day and future economic performance of "typical farms" in selected European production regions under each of the scenarios termed "World Markets," "National Enterprise," "Global Sustainability" and "Local Stewardship." These scenarios were based partly on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios framework and their representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the widely used shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Together, these scenarios contrast local versus international emphasis on decision making, more versus less severe environmental change, and different consequences for producers due to future commodity prices, cash returns, and costs. The mid-century profitability of the typical ...

It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need to make projections in order to test adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to build resilience to long-term shocks. This paper introduces exploratory scenarios with a particular focus on European aquaculture and fisheries and describes how these scenarios were designed. Short-, mediumand long-term developments in socio-political drivers may be just as important in determining profits, revenues and prospects in the aquaculture and fisheries industries as physical drivers such as longterm climate change. Four socio-political-economic futures were developed, based partly on the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) framework and partly on the newer system of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). 'Off the shelf' narrative material as well as quantitative outputs were 'borrowed' from earlier frameworks but supplemented with material generated through in-depth stakeholder workshops involving industry and policy makers. Workshop participants were tasked to outline how they thought their sector might look under the four future worlds and, in particular, to make use of the PESTEL conceptual framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) as an aide memoire to help define the scope of each scenario. This work was carried out under the auspices of the EU Horizon 2020 project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources), and for each 'CERES scenario' (World Markets, National Enterprise, Global Sustainability and Local Stewardship), additional quantitative outputs were generated, including projections of future fuel and fish prices, using the MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) modeling framework. In developing and applying the CERES scenarios, we have demonstrated that the basic architecture is sufficiently flexible to be used at a wide diversity of scales. We urge the climate science ...

This technical note provides the detailed projection results of the study "Modelling and Analysis of the European Milk and Dairy Market".

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Consortium under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), in cooperation with the European Commission's Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS). The report provides a quantitative assessment of possible implications of a dairy policy reform and other policy adjustments on the milk and dairy market as well as on other agricultural markets in the EU-27, EU-15, EU-12, the individual Member States and their regional groupings using the AGMEMOD model.

This summary report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report gives a general overview of the modelling approach, the description and implementation of the baseline, further CAP reform and exchange rate change scenarios. It outlines the main results for the aggregates EU-10, EU-15, EU-25 and EU-27, focusing in particular on the features implemented in this study, and addresses issues that need further attention. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate yearly projections for the main agricultural commodity markets from 2005 until 2015. This report describes the modelling techniques used by the AGMEMOD Partnership, with emphasis on new commodities modelled and policy modelling approaches. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS Scientific and Technical Report Series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities"

This report is based on a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report outlines the results of the baseline projections of agricultural commodity markets, further CAP reform scenario impact analyses and exchange rate change sensitivity analyses for each EU-25 Member State (except Malta and Cyprus). For Bulgaria and Romania enlargement and non-enlargement scenarios are analysed. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".