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This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Chapter 1. Introduction­ -- Chapter 2. Stochastic population forecasting: A Bayesian approach based on evaluation by experts -- Chapter 3. Using expert elicitation to build long-term projection assumptions -- Chapter 4. Post-Transitional Demography and Convergence: What can we Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects? -- Chapter 5. Projecting Proportionate Age–Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes -- Chapter 6. A Three-component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-death Distributions -- Chapter 7. Alternative forecasts of Danish life expectancy -- Chapter 8. Coherent mortality forecasting with standards: low mortality serves as a guide -- Chapter 9. European mortality forecasts: Are the targets still moving? -- Chapter 10. Bayesian disaggregated forecasts: Internal migration in Iceland -- Chapter 11. Forecasting origin-destination-age-sex migration flow tables with multiplicative components -- Chapter 12. New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing.

AbstractThis study analyzed whether there are different patterns of mortality decline among low-mortality countries by identifying the role played by all the mortality components. We implemented a cluster analysis using a functional data analysis (FDA) approach, which allowed us to consider age-specific mortality rather than summary measures, as it analyses curves rather than scalar data. Combined with a functional principal component analysis, it can identify what part of the curves is responsible for assigning one country to a specific cluster. FDA clustering was applied to the data from 32 countries in the Human Mortality Database from 1960 to 2018 to provide a comprehensive understanding of their patterns of mortality. The results show that the evolution of developed countries followed the same pattern of stages (with different timings): (1) a reduction of infant mortality, (2) an increase of premature mortality and (3) a shift and compression of deaths. Some countries were following this scheme and recovering the gap with precursors; others did not show signs of recovery. Eastern European countries were still at Stage (2), and it was not clear if and when they will enter Stage 3. All the country differences related to the different timings with which countries underwent the stages, as identified by the clusters.

Union dissolution is a constantly increasing phenomenon across Europe—even in Italy where the prevalence of divorce has always been among the lowest. This poses several questions on the potential consequences of such an event on the families involved. Many studies show that women usually experience the worst financial consequences, although there are few analyses on Italy, given the relatively low levels of union instability. In this work we study the impact of separation on the economic well-being of men and women using data from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), analyzed using both objective and subjective measures. By means of a matching method, we also estimate the effect of union dissolution, taking account of possible variations according to the different living arrangements adopted by ex-partners after separation. Results confirm that women experience worse economic distress than men. However, there is also a significant drop in economic well-being among non-custodial fathers who live alone after separation. In addition, it is found that income-based measures do not encapsulate all the dimensions of well-being, and therefore need to be complemented with other measures.

Fertility rates in contemporary Europe have reached dramatically low levels. In light of this we are interested in the extent to which childbearing events may worsen individuals' material well-being. Using a sample of women drawn from the European Community Household Panel Survey, we make a comparison of the impact of childbearing on well-being using a welfare-regime classification. Recognizing that poverty status is a poor proxy for well-being, we also derive several measures of well-being that are multidimensional in nature. These measures are referred to as deprivation indices and avoid the poor/non-poor dichotomy. We provide descriptive statistics of poverty status and deprivations indices, as well as an analysis of a more causal nature, the latter consisting of a Difference-in-Differences estimator combined with Propensity Score Matching techniques (DD-PSM). We find that independently of how well-being is defined, childbearing events never have a positive impact on individuals' material well-being. But our estimates are largely consistent with welfare-regime theory: women in the social-democratic welfare states suffer the least as a result of childbearing, whereas women in conservative and Mediterranean states suffer significantly more. For the liberal welfare regime the results are more mixed, and depend on the definition of well-being.

AbstractPremature mortality is often a neglected component of overall deaths, and the most difficult to identify. However, it is important to estimate its prevalence. Following Pearson's theory about mortality components, a definition of premature deaths and a parametric model to study its transformations are introduced. The model is a mixture of three distributions: a Half Normal for the first part of the death curve and two Skew Normals to fit the remaining pieces. One advantage of the model is the possibility of obtaining an explicit equation to compute life expectancy at birth and to break it down into mortality components. We estimated the mixture model for Sweden, France, East Germany and Czech Republic. In addition, to the well-known reduction in infant deaths, and compression and shifting trend of adult mortality, we were able to study the trend of the central part of the distribution of deaths in detail. In general, a right shift of the modal age at death for young adults is observed; in some cases, it is also accompanied by an increase in the number of deaths at these ages: in particular for France, in the last twenty years, premature mortality increases.

We use three waves of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) to analyse the impact of employment, earnings, household income, and welfare on young adults' decision to leave the parental home. In particular we investigate the importance of these income sources in different welfare settings. We use a simultaneous equation approach to control for unobserved heterogeneity and left censoring. We find employment and income to be very important factors in the decisions of young adults to leave home in the Southern European welfare state. For the Continental European welfare states the results are more mixed. Employment and income are still important factors, but the effects are less clear and there are significant variations. In the Social Democratic welfare states, the effect of employment and income appears negligible. The effect is also modest in the UK (the Liberal Market state), a finding we attribute to the educational system.