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This CSIS report argues that Russian leaders are committed to a reconstitution of the Russian military--especially the Russian army--over the next several years, though achieving this goal will be challenging. In addition, Russia views the United States as its main enemy for the foreseeable future.

The U.S. defense industrial base is not prepared for the international security environment that now exists, including to deal with China. The United States should take several steps now to strengthen the industrial base to improve deterrence and warfighting.

The people's man -- The general -- The spymaster -- Covert actors -- Dutch -- The Gdansk Agreement -- Polish abyss -- The case for covert action -- The birth of Qrhelpful -- Struggling to survive -- Getting off the ground -- Ratlines -- The underground -- Hardball -- Cracks in the foundation -- Holy alliance? -- An emotional visit -- A global campaign -- The tide turns -- The return of solidarity -- The Trump card -- Round table talks -- Finishing the job -- The white eagle

Chapter 1: Introduction. - Chapter 2: Starting Insurgencies. - Chapter 3: Strategies. - Chapter 4: Tactics. - Chapter 5: Organizational Structures. - Chapter 6: Information Campaigns and Propaganda. - Chapter 7: Outside Support. - Chapter 8: Ending Insurgencies. - Chapter 9: Conclusion

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- Box, Figures, and Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- CHAPTER ONE: Introduction -- Research Design -- Outline of the Report -- CHAPTER TWO: The Evolution of al Shabaab -- Phase One: Ideological and Historical Origins, 1960s-2005 -- Phase Two: Proto-Insurgency, 2005-2007 -- Phase Three: Rebirth and the Rise of the Islamists, 2007-2009 -- Phase Four: The Heyday of al Shabaab, 2009-2011 -- Phase Five: Retreat and Adaptation, 2011-2016 -- Conclusion -- CHAPTER THREE: The Weakening of al Shabaab -- Strategic Options -- The Decline of al Shabaab -- Conclusion -- CHAPTER FOUR: Recommendations -- APPENDIX -- Data Collection Sources and Notes -- About the Authors -- References -- Index

"Since the end of World War II, there have been 181 insurgencies around the world. In fact, most modern warfare occurs in the form of insurgencies, including in such high-profile countries as Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. However, in spite of their prevalence, we still know relatively little about how insurgencies function. With more than three dozen violent insurgencies currently taking place today, a deeper understanding of insurgent groups is more important than ever. In Waging Insurgent Warfare, Seth G. Jones offers new insights into the dynamics of insurgent groups. Jones weaves together examples from current events and recent history to identify the factors that contribute to the rise of an insurgency, the key components involved in conducting an insurgency, from selecting an organizational structure to securing aid from an outside source, and the elements that contribute to the end of insurgencies. Through examining the strategies, tactics, and campaigns that insurgents use, as well as how these factors relate to each other on the ground, Jones provides a comprehensive understanding of the ways in which insurgent groups operate. Empirically rich and historically informed, Waging Insurgent Warfare features data on over one hundred factors for every insurgency that has taken place between 1946 and 2015. While the primary emphasis revolves around insurgency, the findings in this book also have important implications for waging counterinsurgent warfare. Bringing together the existing body of knowledge on insurgencies, Jones provides a practical, accessible resource to help understand insurgent warfare. The definitive resource on insurgency, Waging Insurgent Warfare will appeal to anyone with an interest in insurgency, counterinsurgency, or modern war."--

This report examines the status and evolution of al Qa'ida and other Salafi-jihadist groups, and uses qualitative and quantitative data to assess whether this movement has strengthened. The author uses this analysis to examine U.S. strategic options to counter al Qa'ida and other terrorist groups based on the threat level and the capacity of local governments

Following the recent endorsement of the U.S.-Afghanistan bilateral security agreement by Afghanistan's Loya Jirga, a new CFR report outlines the composition, role, and rationale for the roughly ten thousand U.S. troops that will possibly remain in the country after the 2014 drawdown. The authors explain how the United States should manage the complex political, security, and economic challenges that will accompany the reduction in U.S. and allied forces. They argue for a force of eight to twelve thousand troops to assist Afghan national security forces and prevent a resurgence of al-Qaeda

Descent into violence -- The mujahideen era -- Uncivil war -- The rise of the Taliban -- Al Qa'ida's strategic alliance -- Operation Enduring Freedom -- Light footprint -- Early successes -- The logic of insurgency -- Collapse of law and order -- A growing cancer -- The perfect storm -- A three-front war -- National caveats -- The water must boil -- Al Qa'ida : a force multiplier -- In the eye of the storm -- Back to the future