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This paper presents two empirical tools to quantify the impacts of tariff changes on bilateral trade and welfare. Both tools are rooted in the structural gravity literature. The first tool estimates the impact of tariff changes on bilateral trade for 5,020 products in a partial equilibrium framework. The second tool quantifies the impact on bilateral aggregate trade in a general equilibrium setup, allowing estimates of trade reallocation and welfare changes. These tools are used to estimate the impact of tariff changes affecting Armenia, including (i) the alignment with the external tariff of the Eurasian Economic Union, (ii) free trade agreements between the Eurasian Economic Union, and other economies-Iran and the People's Republic of China, and (iii) the loss of beneficiary status for the Generalised Scheme of Preferences of the European Union.

AbstractThis article reviews the evolution of the role of export credit agencies (ECAs) and their impact on trade and investment. We argue that regional cooperation in Asia would foster regulation and facilitate access to trade and investment finance. Regional cooperation could take the form of regulation aiming at levelling the playing field; or it could go further, with the creation of a multilateral agency that would leverage the industry's best practices and a good credit standing to facilitate access to trade and investment finance across Asia, particularly in the countries where availability is limited. We review the lessons learnt from existing multilateral ECAs and national ECAs in Asia and argue that these should be carefully considered when designing a new regional ECA.