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L'évolution de la mortalité biélorusse a fait couler beaucoup moins d'encre que celles d'autres pays de l'ex-URSS. Jusqu'à récemment, l'indisponibilité de données détaillées sur les causes de décès était un obstacle majeur à la recherche sur la mortalité dans ce pays. Cet article vise deux objectifs principaux. Le premier est la reconstruction de séries continues de décès par cause de 1965 à nos jours. Le second est l'analyse des séries ainsi obtenues pour prendre la mesure des principaux changements intervenus durant cette période. L'analyse porte sur les données originales de décès par cause. Le problème de discontinuité des séries annuelles provoquées par les révisions successives de la classification des maladies et causes de décès a été résolu grâce à une méthode de reclassement a posteriori des données anciennes. Cela permet de disposer désormais de séries de décès par cause à définition constante et de les mettre à disposition de la communauté scientifique internationale. Cette étude montre à quel point les tendances de la mortalité biélorusse sont défavorables depuis près d'un demi-siècle, principalement pour les hommes. Les maladies cardiovasculaires et les morts violentes liées à l'abus d'alcool sont les caractéristiques majeures de la dégradation de la santé publique, dont la dynamique à long terme est à la base d'une crise sanitaire chronique.

Après avoir divergé au temps de la division, les espérances de vie est- et ouest-allemandes ont convergé depuis la réunification. Même si le rattrapage n'est pas tout à fait complet pour les hommes, amélioration du système de santé et changements de comportements individuels ont permis à l'Allemagne de l'est de combler l'essentiel de son retard.

AbstractLithuania represents one of the rare cases in which a state with relatively high standards for maintaining population statistics is experiencing mass emigration. In light of the policy initiatives undertaken by the Lithuanian government to address the issue of emigration, this study aims to improve our understanding of how, in this mass emigration context, emigration events are connected to specific socio‐economic characteristics of individuals and variation in local socio‐economic conditions. We analyse census and vital registration data covering the whole working‐age population of Lithuania during the period 2011‐2012. Our findings indicate that when assessing the likelihood of emigration events, individual‐level characteristics such as employment status, educational attainment, and prior migration experience are highly relevant. However, the importance of these characteristics differs by gender. We also detect considerable spatial variation in emigration rates across Lithuanian municipalities. Our outcomes provide new insights for the development of cohesive migration policies in Lithuania.

To derive reliable demographic indicators, appropriate data on population exposures are needed. Access to such data is becoming increasingly challenging in many countries due to factors such as the growing diversity of international migration patterns and the trend towards replacing full censuses with register-based censuses. Germany represents a particularly challenging case in this respect. Before Germany implemented its first register-based census in 2011, the country had not conducted a census for more than two decades. This census revealed that the number of people living in Germany in 2011 was about 1.5 million lower than the previous official post-censal population estimates for that year indicated. It is likely that a large portion of this discrepancy had existed for quite some time prior to 2011. Due to the long inter-censal period, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany decided not to produce backward-adjusted population estimates by single-year ages and sex for the whole period. The main aim of this paper is thus to make such detailed adjusted inter-censal population estimates available. While we have to take the peculiarities of the German case into account, our evaluation of different strategies offers important insights for developing a generalised methodology to adjust inter-censal population estimates for globalised countries that face challenges in ensuring the proper registration of migration events. We discuss four alternative approaches for deriving adjusted inter-censal population estimates. The results suggest that even for a rather complicated case like Germany, a relatively simple approach seems to work reasonably well. Finally, we demonstrate to what extent the implemented adjustments affect mortality indicators. The adjusted inter-censal population estimates for Germany and its federal states are provided in the online data appendix (http://dx.doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2018-07en).

International audience ; Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia were quite comparable in terms of their socioeconomic development. Despite some differences in overall mortality levels, the three former Soviet republics were also very close to each other in terms of directions of mortality trends and age- and cause-specific mortality patterns. After 1991, all the three countries experienced substantial political and social transformations, and the challenges associated with the transition from a socialist to a market economy system. The sudden changes brought numerous problems, such as rapid growth in unemployment, falling standards of living, and growing social and income inequalities. These factors contributed to the significant deterioration of the health situation in all the countries, but the size and the nature of the mortality crisis was different in Belarus than it was in Lithuania and Russia. The marked similarities in socioeconomic and mortality trends in the countries up to 1991 contrast with their notable divergence during the subsequent years. The nature and success of market reforms seems to be the most plausible explanation for these differences. Russia and Lithuania have chosen more radical forms of economic and political transformations, which have led to massive privatization campaigns. The reforms were more sustainable and systematic in Lithuania than in Russia. By contrast, Belarus has chosen a gradual and slow transition path. Recent mortality trends in Belarus are explored in detail here, and are contrasted with those observed in Lithuania and Russia. Including a cause-of-death analysis sheds more light on the plausible determinants of the variations in mortality levels between the countries.

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia were quite comparable in terms of their socioeconomic development. Despite some differences in overall mortality levels, the three former Soviet republics were also very close to each other in terms of directions of mortality trends and age- and cause-specific mortality patterns. After 1991, all the three countries experienced substantial political and social transformations, and the challenges associated with the transition from a socialist to a market economy system. The sudden changes brought numerous problems, such as rapid growth in unemployment, falling standards of living, and growing social and income inequalities. These factors contributed to the significant deterioration of the health situation in all the countries, but the size and the nature of the mortality crisis was different in Belarus than it was in Lithuania and Russia. The marked similarities in socioeconomic and mortality trends in the countries up to 1991 contrast with their notable divergence during the subsequent years. The nature and success of market reforms seems to be the most plausible explanation for these differences. Russia and Lithuania have chosen more radical forms of economic and political transformations, which have led to massive privatization campaigns. The reforms were more sustainable and systematic in Lithuania than in Russia. By contrast, Belarus has chosen a gradual and slow transition path. Recent mortality trends in Belarus are explored in detail here, and are contrasted with those observed in Lithuania and Russia. Including a cause-of-death analysis sheds more light on the plausible determinants of the variations in mortality levels between the countries.

The health situation in Russia has often been characterized as a long‐running crisis. From the 1960s until the beginning of the 2000s, the declining life expectancy trend was substantially interrupted only twice: once in the mid‐1980s as a result of Gorbachev's anti‐alcohol campaign, and again at the end of the 1990s as a result of the "rebound" effect following the dramatic rise in mortality associated with the acute socioeconomic crisis. In both cases, the progress made proved to be short‐lived. A third mortality decline in Russia began in 2003 and is still ongoing. We investigate the components and driving forces of this new development, in particular the role played by cardiovascular diseases. Using cause‐specific mortality data, we identify the main features of the recent improvements and compare these features with those observed in selected European countries, specifically France, Poland, and Estonia. Our aim is to gauge whether the features of the improvements in these countries are similar to those of the recent advancements made in Russia. Although the recent improvements in Russia have features in common with initial stages of prior mortality declines in other countries and may support optimism about the future, a return to mortality stagnation cannot be ruled out.

Les pratiques de certification et de codage des causes initiales de décès ne sont pas toutes les mêmes, ce qui peut nuire à la pertinence et la fiabilité des statistiques de mortalité par cause. La cohérence de ces données au sein d'un même pays peut être considérée comme un critère de qualité. Cet article évalue la cohérence à l'échelle infranationale des statistiques sur les causes de décès en Russie, en Allemagne, aux États-Unis et en France. On estime la part respective des principaux groupes de causes dans les structures de mortalité régionales, et on les compare aux moyennes interrégionales. Ces écarts à la moyenne sont présentés sur des matrices de cartes thermiques qui permettent d'identifier les combinaisons cause-région les plus éloignées des moyennes, les causes présentant une forte variabilité infranationale, ainsi que les régions dont la structure de mortalité est particulière. C'est en France que les données sur les causes de décès sont les plus cohérentes d'une région à l'autre, et en Russie que la part des valeurs aberrantes est la plus élevée. On constate également des différences selon la difficulté à diagnostiquer les causes de décès : la variabilité interrégionale diminue avec le degré de spécificité des symptômes permettant le diagnostic. Plus le diagnostic est difficile, plus les écarts interrégionaux sont importants.