Search results

AbstractIntroductionThanks to antiretroviral treatment (ART), people living with HIV (PLHIV) are living longer and ageing. However, ageing involves increased risks of co‐morbidities, which also depend on when PLHIV individuals started ART. To tackle the HIV age‐related upcoming challenges, knowledge of the current and future age structure of the HIV population is needed. Here, we forecast the demographic profile of the adult population living with diagnosed HIV (aPLdHIV) in France until 2030, accounting for the impact of the ART initiation period on mortality.MethodsWe used national data from the French Hospital Database on HIV (ANRS CO4‐FHDH) and a sample of the National Health Data System to, first, characterize the aPLdHIV in 2018 and estimate their mortality rates according to age, sex and ART initiation period. Second, we used national HIV surveillance data to define three scenarios for the numbers of newly diagnosed HIV cases over 2019–2030: 30% decrease in HIV cases (S1), status quo situation (S2) and epidemic elimination (S3). We then combined these data using a matrix model, to project the age structure of aPLdHIV and time since ART initiation.ResultsIn 2018, there was an estimated 161,125 aPLdHIV (33% women), of which 55% were aged 50 or older (50+), 22% aged 60+ and 8% aged 70+. In 2030, the aPLdHIV would grow to 195,246 for S1, 207,972 for S2 and 167,221 for S3. Whatever the scenario, in 2030, the estimated median time since ART initiation would increase and age distribution would shift towards older ages: with 65–72% aPLdHIV aged 50+, 42–48% 60+ and 17–19% 70+. This corresponds to ∼83,400 aPLdHIV (28% women) aged 60+, among which ∼69% started ART more than 20 years ago (i.e. before 2010) and ∼39% ≥30 years ago (i.e. before 2000), and to ∼33,100 aPLdHIV (27% women) aged 70+, among which ∼72% started ART ≥20 years ago and ∼43% ≥30 years ago.ConclusionsBy 2030, in France, close to 20% of the aPLdHIV will be aged 70+, of which >40% would have started ART more than 30 years ago. These estimates are essential to adapt co‐morbidities screening and anticipate resource provision in the aged care sector.

HIV cohort data from high-income European countries were compared with the UNAIDS Spectrum modelling parameters for these same countries to validate mortality rates and excess mortality estimates for people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Data from 2000 to 2015 were analysed from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) for Austria, Denmark, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland. Flexible parametric models were used to compare all-cause mortality rates in the ART-CC and Spectrum. The percentage of AIDS-related deaths and excess mortality (both are the same within Spectrum) were compared, with excess mortality defined as that in excess of the general population mortality. Analyses included 94 026 PLHIV with 585 784 person-years of follow-up, from which there were 5515 deaths. All-cause annual mortality rates in Spectrum for 2000-2003 were 0.0121, reducing to 0.0078 in 2012-2015, whilst the ART-CC's corresponding annual mortality rates were 0.0151 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.0130-0.0171] reducing to 0.0049 (95% CI: 0.0039-0.0060). The percentage of AIDS-related deaths in Spectrum was 74.7% in 2000-2003, dropping to 43.6% in 2012-2015. In the ART-CC, AIDS-related mortality constitutes 45.3% (95% CI: 38.4-52.9%) of mortality in 2000-2003 and 26.7% (95% CI: 19-46%) between 2012 and 2015. Excess mortality in the ART-CC was broadly similar to the Spectrum estimates, dropping from 75.3% (95% CI: 60.3-95.2%) in 2000-2003 to 30.7% (95% CI: 25.5-63.7%) in 2012-2015. All-cause mortality assumptions for PLHIV on ART in high-income European settings should be adjusted in Spectrum to be higher in 2000-2003 and decline more quickly to levels currently captured for recent years. ; Funding: This work was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC; grant number MR/J002380/1) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement and is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. The ART-CC is ...

People living with HIV (PLHIV) are more likely than the general population to develop AIDS-defining malignancies (ADMs) and several non-ADMs (NADMs). Information is lacking on survival outcomes and cause-specific mortality after cancer diagnosis among PLHIV. We investigated causes of death within 5 years of cancer diagnosis in PLHIV enrolled in European and North American HIV cohorts starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) 1996-2015, aged ≥16 years, and subsequently diagnosed with cancer. Cancers were grouped: ADMs, viral NADMs and nonviral NADMs. We calculated cause-specific mortality rates (MR) after diagnosis of specific cancers and compared 5-year survival with the UK and France general populations. Among 83,856 PLHIV there were 4,436 cancer diagnoses. Of 603 deaths after ADM diagnosis, 292 (48%) were due to an ADM. There were 467/847 (55%) and 74/189 (39%) deaths that were due to an NADM after nonviral and viral NADM diagnoses, respectively. MR were higher for diagnoses between 1996 and 2005 versus 2006-2015: ADMs 102 (95% CI 92-113) per 1,000 years versus 88 (78-100), viral NADMs 134 (106-169) versus 111 (93-133) and nonviral NADMs 264 (232-300) versus 226 (206-248). Estimated 5-year survival for PLHIV diagnosed with liver (29% [19-39%]), lung (18% [13-23%]) and cervical (75% [63-84%]) cancer was similar to general populations. Survival after Hodgkin's lymphoma diagnosis was lower in PLHIV (75% [67-81%]). Among ART-treated PLHIV diagnosed with cancer, MR and causes of death varied by cancer type, with mortality highest for liver and lung cancers. Deaths within 5 years of NADM diagnoses were more likely to be from cancer than AIDS. ; We would like to thank all patients, doctors, and study nurses associated with the participating cohort studies. This work was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC; grant number MR/J002380/1) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement and is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. The ...

OBJECTIVES: To estimate mortality rates and prognostic factors in HIV-positive patients who started combination antiretroviral therapy between 1996-1999 and survived for more than ten years. METHODS: We used data from 18 European and North American HIV cohort studies contributing to the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration. We followed up patients from ten years after start of combination antiretroviral therapy. We estimated overall and cause-specific mortality rate ratios for age, sex, transmission through injection drug use, AIDS, CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA. RESULTS: During 50,593 person years 656/13,011 (5%) patients died. Older age, male sex, injecting drug use transmission, AIDS, and low CD4 count and detectable viral replication ten years after starting combination antiretroviral therapy were associated with higher subsequent mortality. CD4 count at ART start did not predict mortality in models adjusted for patient characteristics ten years after start of antiretroviral therapy. The most frequent causes of death (among 340 classified) were non-AIDS cancer, AIDS, cardiovascular, and liver-related disease. Older age was strongly associated with cardiovascular mortality, injecting drug use transmission with non-AIDS infection and liver-related mortality, and low CD4 and detectable viral replication ten years after starting antiretroviral therapy with AIDS mortality. Five-year mortality risk was <5% in 60% of all patients, and in 30% of those aged over 60 years. CONCLUSIONS: Viral replication, lower CD4 count, prior AIDS, and transmission via injecting drug use continue to predict higher all-cause and AIDS-related mortality in patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy for over a decade. Deaths from AIDS and non-AIDS infection are less frequent than deaths from other non-AIDS causes. ; This work was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) MR/J002380/1—http://www.mrc.ac.uk/— and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement and is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. ; Sí

[Objective] HIV controllers (HICs) spontaneously maintain HIV viral replication at low level without antiretroviral therapy (ART), a small number of whom will eventually lose this ability to control HIV viremia. The objective was to identify factors associated with loss of virological control. ; [Methods] HICs were identified in COHERE on the basis of ≥5 consecutive viral loads (VL) ≤500 copies/mL over ≥1 year whilst ART-naive, with the last VL ≤500 copies/mL measured ≥5 years after HIV diagnosis. Loss of virological control was defined as 2 consecutive VL >2000 copies/mL. Duration of HIV control was described using cumulative incidence method, considering loss of virological control, ART initiation and death during virological control as competing outcomes. Factors associated with loss of virological control were identified using Cox models. CD4 and CD8 dynamics were described using mixed-effect linear models. ; [Results] We identified 1067 HICs; 86 lost virological control, 293 initiated ART, and 13 died during virological control. Six years after confirmation of HIC status, the probability of losing virological control, initiating ART and dying were 13%, 37%, and 2%. Current lower CD4/CD8 ratio and a history of transient viral rebounds were associated with an increased risk of losing virological control. CD4 declined and CD8 increased before loss of virological control, and before viral rebounds. ; [Discussion] Expansion of CD8 and decline of CD4 during HIV control may result from repeated low-level viremia. Our findings suggest that in addition to superinfection, other mechanisms, such as low grade viral replication, can lead to loss of virological control in HICs. ; The COHERE study group has received unrestricted funding from: Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA et les Hépatites Virales (ANRS), France; HIV Monitoring Foundation, The Netherlands; and the Augustinus Foundation, Denmark. The research leading to these results received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under EuroCoord grant agreement n° 260694. ; Peer reviewed