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This paper discusses political and economic aspects of Turkish accession. Under present rules, Turkey would have the greatest number of council votes within twenty years, and receive the largest budget transfer. Free migration may increase the Turkish immigrant population in Germany from 2 to 3.5 million in thirty years. Most of the economic effects will be felt by Turkey, particularly in agriculture. The main obstacles to accession are not economic, but political. Historical experience prevents Turkey from eliminating the decisive political role of the military, giving Kurds and other minorities cultural rights and upholding basic human rights.

This paper discusses political and economic aspects of Turkish accession. Under present rules, Turkey would have the greatest number of council votes within twenty years, and receive the largest budget transfer. Free migration may increase the Turkish immigrant population in Germany from 2 to 3.5 million in thirty years. Most of the economic effects will be felt by Turkey, particularly in agriculture. The main obstacles to accession are not economic, but political. Historical experience prevents Turkey from eliminating the decisive political role of the military, giving Kurds and other minorities cultural rights and upholding basic human rights.

This paper identifies and discusses important political and economic aspects of Turkish accession to the EU. Under the present rules, Turkey's size would give it the greatest number of votes within twenty years and its low income and dependence on agriculture the largest net transfer from other members. Free labor mobility would lead to substantial migration to the present EU; the Turkish immigrant population in Germany may increase from 2 to 3.6 million in thirty years. Most of the economic effects will be felt by Turkey, particularly in agriculture. The main obstacles to accession are not economic, but political, however. Historical experience makes it difficult for Turkey to eliminate the decisive political role of the military, to give Kurds and other minorities cultural rights and uphold basic human rights; these issues are perceived to threaten national unity and territorial integrity. Turkish membership is resisted by many in the EU because Turkey is not considered to be part of Europe geographically and culturally.

Measured by trade in intermediate inputs, economic integration has increased between 2000 and 2014 between members of the European Union and even more with non-members. Integration is negatively related to economic size and positively to the number of years as a member. Germany is the largest hub in the production network and the centre of gravity has moved eastward. Older member states are increasingly exporting service inputs and new member states primary and manufacturing inputs. Wages are increasing faster in countries with low initial wages, indicating wage convergence as a result of production integration.

Measured by trade in intermediate inputs, economic integration has increased between 2000 and 2014 between members of the European Union and even more with non-members. Integration is negatively related to economic size and positively to the number of years as a member. Germany is the largest hub in the production network and the centre of gravity has moved eastward. Older member states are increasingly exporting service inputs and new member states primary and manufacturing inputs. Wages are increasing faster in countries with low initial wages, indicating wage convergence as a result of production integration.