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We consider Bayesian inference about the dimensionality in the multivariate reduced rank regression framework, which encompasses several models such as MANOVA, factor analysis and cointegration models for multiple time series. The fractional Bayes approach is used to derive a closed form approximation to the posterior distribution of the dimensionality and some asymptotic properties of the approximation are proved. Finite sample properties are studied by simulation and the method is applied to growth curve data and cointegrated multivariate time series.

In assessments of child sexual abuse (CSA) allegations, informative background information is often overlooked or not used properly. We therefore created and tested an instrument that uses accessible background information to calculate the probability of a child being a CSA victim that can be used as a starting point in the following investigation. Studying 903 demographic and socioeconomic variables from over 11,000 Finnish children, we identified 42 features related to CSA. Using Bayesian logic to calculate the probability of abuse, our instrument—the Finnish Investigative Instrument of Child Sexual Abuse (FICSA)—has two separate profiles for boys and girls. A cross-validation procedure suggested excellent diagnostic utility (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.97 for boys and AUC = 0.88 for girls). We conclude that the presented method can be useful in forensic assessments of CSA allegations by adding a reliable statistical approach to considering background information, and to support clinical decision making and guide investigative efforts.

Funding: This work was supported by the Swedish Research Council Linnaeus Centre ACCESS (S.C.), ERC grant 239784 (J.C.), the Academy of Finland Center of Excellence COIN (J.C.), the Academy of Finland (M.V.), the Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS) (A.W.W), and the UK MRC/DFID grant G1002369 (S.C.F). L.J.F. received funding in the form of salary from Illumina Cambridge Ltd. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. ; Peer reviewed ; Publisher PDF

Enterococci are Gram-positive bacteria that are found in plants, soil and as commensals of the gastrointestinal tract of humans, mammals, and insects. Despite their commensal nature, they have also become globally important nosocomial pathogens. Within the genus Enterococcus, Enterococcus faecium, and Enterococcus faecalis are clinically most relevant. In this review, we will discuss how E. faecium and E. faecalis have evolved to become a globally disseminated nosocomial pathogen. E. faecium has a defined sub-population that is associated with hospitalized patients and is rarely encountered in community settings. These hospital-associated clones are characterized by the acquisition of adaptive genetic elements, including genes involved in metabolism, biofilm formation, and antibiotic resistance. In contrast to E. faecium, clones of E. faecalis isolated from hospitalized patients, including strains causing clinical infections, are not exclusively found in hospitals but are also present in healthy individuals and animals. This observation suggests that the division between commensals and hospital-adapted lineages is less clear for E. faecalis than for E. faecium. In addition, genes that are reported to be associated with virulence of E. faecalis are often not unique to clinical isolates, but are also found in strains that originate from commensal niches. As a reflection of more ancient association of E. faecalis with different hosts, these determinants Thus, they may not represent genuine virulence genes but may act as host-adaptive functions that are useful in a variety of intestinal environments. The scope of the review is to summarize recent trends in the emergence of antibiotic resistance and explore recent developments in the molecular epidemiology, population structure and mechanisms of adaptation of E. faecium and E. faecalis. ; WS is funded through a NWO-Vidi grant (917.13.357). TC and FB are supported by grants PI12-01581 and PI15-01307 from the ISCIII-Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain (to TC), S2010/BMD2414 from the Regional Government of Madrid (to FB) and the CIBERESP Network for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health (Instituto Carlos III, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, reference number CB06/02/0053). ; Peer reviewed ; Peer Reviewed

The Genetics of Sexuality and Aggression (GSA) project was launched at the Abo Akademi University in Turku, Finland in 2005 and has so far undertaken two major population-based data collections involving twins and siblings of twins. To date, it consists of about 14,000 individuals (including 1,147 informative monozygotic twin pairs, 1,042 informative same-sex dizygotic twin pairs, 741 informative opposite-sex dizygotic twin pairs). Participants have been recruited through the Central Population Registry of Finland and were 18–49 years of age at the time of the data collections. Saliva samples for DNA genotyping (n = 4,278) and testosterone analyses (n = 1,168) were collected in 2006. The primary focus of the data collections has been on sexuality (both sexual functioning and sexual behavior) and aggressive behavior. This paper provides an overview of the data collections as well as an outline of the phenotypes and biological data assembled within the project. A detailed overview of publications can be found at the project's Web site: http://www.cebg.fi/.

Background: Antimicrobial resistance is highly prevalent in low-income and middle-income countries. International travel contributes substantially to the global spread of intestinal multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria. Hundreds of millions of annual visitors to low-income and middle-income countries are all exposed to intestinal multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria resulting in 30–70% of them being colonised at their return. The colonisation process in high-exposure environments is poorly documented because data have only been derived from before travel and after travel sampling. We characterised colonisation dynamics by exploring daily stool samples while visiting a low-income and middle-income countries. Methods: In this prospective, daily, real-time sampling study 20 European visitors to Laos volunteered to provide daily stool samples and completed daily questionnaires for 22 days. Samples were initially assessed at Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, Laos, for acquisition of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing (ESBL) Gram-negative bacteria followed by whole-genome sequencing of isolates at MicrobesNG, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK. The primary outcome of the study was to obtain data on the dynamics of intestinal multidrug-resistant bacteria acquisition. Findings: Between Sept 18 and Sept 20, 2015, 23 volunteers were recruited, of whom 20 (87%) European volunteers were included in the final study population. Although colonisation rates were 70% at the end of the study, daily sampling revealed that all participants had acquired ESBL-producing Gram-negative bacteria at some point during the study period; the colonisation status varied day by day. Whole-genome sequencing analysis ascribed the transient pattern of colonisation to sequential acquisition of new strains, resulting in a loss of detectable colonisation by the initial multidrug-resistant Gram-negative strains. 19 (95%) participants acquired two to seven strains. Of the 83 unique strains identified (53 Escherichia coli, 10 Klebsiella spp, and 20 other ESBL-producing Gram-negative bacteria), some were shared by as many as four (20%) participants. Interpretation: To our knowledge, this is the first study to characterise in real-time the dynamics of acquiring multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacterial colonisation during travel. Our data show multiple transient colonisation events indicative of constant microbial competition and suggest that travellers are exposed to a greater burden of multidrug-resistant bacteria than previously thought. The data emphasise the need for preventing travellers' diarrhoea and limiting antibiotic use, addressing the two major factors predisposing colonisation. Funding: The Finnish Governmental Subsidy for Health Science Research, The Scandinavian Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, the Sigrid Jusélius Foundation, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council; Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council; The Royal Society; Joint Programming Initiative on Antimicrobial Resistance, and European Research Council.

AbstractBackgroundAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) is highly prevalent in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). International travel contributes substantially to the global spread of intestinal multidrug-resistant gram-negative (MDR-GN) bacteria. Of the 100 million annual visitors to LMIC, 30–70% become colonized by MDR-GN bacteria. The phenomenon has been well documented, but since sampling has only been conducted after travelers' return home, data on the actual colonization process are scarce. We aimed to characterize colonization dynamics by exploring stool samples abroad on a daily basis while visiting LMIC.MethodsA group of 20 European volunteers visiting Lao People's Democratic Republic for three weeks provided daily stool samples and filled in daily questionnaires. Acquisition of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing gram-negative bacteria (ESBL-GN) was examined by selective stool cultures followed by whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of isolates.ResultsWhile colonization rates were 70% at the end of the study, daily sampling revealed that all participants had acquired ESBL-GN at some time point during their overseas stay, the colonization status varying day by day. WGS analysis ascribed the transient pattern of colonization to sequential acquisition of new strains, resulting in a loss of detectable colonization by the initial MDR-GN strains. All but one participant acquired multiple strains (n=2–7). Of the total of 83 unique strains identified (53 E. coli, 10 Klebsiella, 20 other ESBL-GN species), some were shared by as many as four subjects.ConclusionsThis is the first study to characterize in real time the dynamics of acquiring MDR-GN during travel. Our data show multiple transient colonization events indicative of constant microbial competition.

Vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREfm) is a major cause of nosocomial infection and is categorized as high priority by the World Health Organization global priority list of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. In the past, livestock have been proposed as a putative reservoir for drug-resistant E. faecium strains that infect humans, and isolates of the same lineage have been found in both reservoirs. We undertook cross-sectional surveys to isolate E. faecium (including VREfm) from livestock farms, retail meat, and wastewater treatment plants in the United Kingdom. More than 600 isolates from these sources were sequenced, and their relatedness and antibiotic resistance genes were compared with genomes of almost 800 E. faecium isolates from patients with bloodstream infection in the United Kingdom and Ireland. E. faecium was isolated from 28/29 farms; none of these isolates were VREfm, suggesting a decrease in VREfm prevalence since the last UK livestock survey in 2003. However, VREfm was isolated from 1% to 2% of retail meat products and was ubiquitous in wastewater treatment plants. Phylogenetic comparison demonstrated that the majority of human and livestock-related isolates were genetically distinct, although pig isolates from three farms were more genetically related to human isolates from 2001 to 2004 (minimum of 50 single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]). Analysis of accessory (variable) genes added further evidence for distinct niche adaptation. An analysis of acquired antibiotic resistance genes and their variants revealed limited sharing between humans and livestock. Our findings indicate that the majority of E. faecium strains infecting patients are largely distinct from those from livestock in this setting, with limited sharing of strains and resistance genes.IMPORTANCE The rise in rates of human infection caused by vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREfm) strains between 1988 to the 2000s in Europe was suggested to be associated with acquisition from livestock. As a result, the European Union banned the use of the glycopeptide drug avoparcin as a growth promoter in livestock feed. While some studies reported a decrease in VREfm in livestock, others reported no reduction. Here, we report the first livestock VREfm prevalence survey in the UK since 2003 and the first large-scale study using whole-genome sequencing to investigate the relationship between E. faecium strains in livestock and humans. We found a low prevalence of VREfm in retail meat and limited evidence for recent sharing of strains between livestock and humans with bloodstream infection. There was evidence for limited sharing of genes encoding antibiotic resistance between these reservoirs, a finding which requires further research.

Vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREfm) is a major cause of nosocomial infection and is categorized as high priority by the World Health Organization global priority list of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. In the past, livestock have been proposed as a putative reservoir for drug-resistant E. faecium strains that infect humans, and isolates of the same lineage have been found in both reservoirs. We undertook cross-sectional surveys to isolate E. faecium (including VREfm) from livestock farms, retail meat, and wastewater treatment plants in the United Kingdom. More than 600 isolates from these sources were sequenced, and their relatedness and antibiotic resistance genes were compared with genomes of almost 800 E. faecium isolates from patients with bloodstream infection in the United Kingdom and Ireland. E. faecium was isolated from 28/29 farms; none of these isolates were VREfm, suggesting a decrease in VREfm prevalence since the last UK livestock survey in 2003. However, VREfm was isolated from 1% to 2% of retail meat products and was ubiquitous in wastewater treatment plants. Phylogenetic comparison demonstrated that the majority of human and livestock-related isolates were genetically distinct, although pig isolates from three farms were more genetically related to human isolates from 2001 to 2004 (minimum of 50 single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]). Analysis of accessory (variable) genes added further evidence for distinct niche adaptation. An analysis of acquired antibiotic resistance genes and their variants revealed limited sharing between humans and livestock. Our findings indicate that the majority of E. faecium strains infecting patients are largely distinct from those from livestock in this setting, with limited sharing of strains and resistance genes.IMPORTANCE The rise in rates of human infection caused by vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREfm) strains between 1988 to the 2000s in Europe was suggested to be associated with acquisition from livestock. As a result, the European Union banned the use of the glycopeptide drug avoparcin as a growth promoter in livestock feed. While some studies reported a decrease in VREfm in livestock, others reported no reduction. Here, we report the first livestock VREfm prevalence survey in the UK since 2003 and the first large-scale study using whole-genome sequencing to investigate the relationship between E. faecium strains in livestock and humans. We found a low prevalence of VREfm in retail meat and limited evidence for recent sharing of strains between livestock and humans with bloodstream infection. There was evidence for limited sharing of genes encoding antibiotic resistance between these reservoirs, a finding which requires further research.

UNLABELLED: For 100 years, it has been obvious that Salmonella enterica strains sharing the serotype with the formula 1,4,[5],12:b:1,2-now known as Paratyphi B-can cause diseases ranging from serious systemic infections to self-limiting gastroenteritis. Despite considerable predicted diversity between strains carrying the common Paratyphi B serotype, there remain few methods that subdivide the group into groups that are congruent with their disease phenotypes. Paratyphi B therefore represents one of the canonical examples in Salmonella where serotyping combined with classical microbiological tests fails to provide clinically informative information. Here, we use genomics to provide the first high-resolution view of this serotype, placing it into a wider genomic context of the Salmonella enterica species. These analyses reveal why it has been impossible to subdivide this serotype based upon phenotypic and limited molecular approaches. By examining the genomic data in detail, we are able to identify common features that correlate with strains of clinical importance. The results presented here provide new diagnostic targets, as well as posing important new questions about the basis for the invasive disease phenotype observed in a subset of strains. IMPORTANCE: Salmonella enterica strains carrying the serotype Paratyphi B have long been known to possess Jekyll and Hyde characteristics; some cause gastroenteritis, while others cause serious invasive disease. Understanding what makes up the population of strains carrying this serotype, as well as the source of their invasive disease, is a 100-year-old puzzle that we address here using genomics. Our analysis provides the first high-resolution view of this serotype, placing strains carrying serotype Paratyphi B into the wider genomic context of the Salmonella enterica species. This work reveals a history of disease dating back to the middle ages, caused by a group of distinct lineages with various abilities to cause invasive disease. By quantifying the key genomic differences between the invasive and noninvasive populations, we are able to identify key virulence-related targets that can form the basis of simple, rapid, point-of-care tests. ; This work, including the efforts of Thomas R. Connor, Gemma Langridge, Theresa Feltwell, Julian Parkhill, and Nicholas Thomson, was funded by Wellcome Trust (098051). This work, including the efforts of Thomas R. Connor, was funded by Medical Research Council (MRC) (MR/L015080/1). F.-X.W. and S.L. are funded by the Institut Pasteur, the Institut de Veille Sanitaire, and the French Government's Investissement d'Avenir program Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratory of Excellence (grant number ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication ; Sí