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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) ; Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria - Embrapa ; UK government Darwin Initiative ; Nature Conservancy ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) ; H2020-MSCA-RISE ; Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa ; CNPq: 574008/2008-0 ; Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria - Embrapa: SEG: 02.08.06.005.00 ; UK government Darwin Initiative: 17-023 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/ F01614X/1 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/G000816/1 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/K016431/1 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/P004512/1 ; H2020-MSCA-RISE: 691053-ODYS-SEA ; Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa: PELD-RAS 441659/2016-0 ; Human-modified forests are an ever-increasing feature across the Amazon Basin, but little is known about how stem growth is influenced by extreme climatic events and the resulting wildfires. Here we assess for the first time the impacts of human-driven disturbance in combination with El Nino-mediated droughts and fires on tree growth and carbon accumulation. We found that after 2.5 years of continuous measurements, there was no difference in stem carbon accumulation between undisturbed and human-modified forests. Furthermore, the extreme drought caused by the El Nino did not affect carbon accumulation rates in surviving trees. In recently burned forests, trees grew significantly more than in unburned ones, regardless of their history of previous human disturbance. Wood density was the only significant factor that helped explain the difference in growth between trees in burned and unburned forests, with low wood-density trees growing significantly more in burned sites. Our results suggest stem carbon accumulation is resistant to human disturbance and one-off extreme drought events, and it is stimulated immediately after wildfires. However, these results should be seen with caution-without accounting for carbon losses, recruitment and longer-term changes in species composition, we cannot fully understand the impacts of drought and fire in the carbon balance of human-modified forests. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Nino on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Tropical rainforests store enormous amounts of carbon, the protection of which represents a vital component of efforts to mitigate global climate change. Currently, tropical forest conservation, science, policies, and climate mitigation actions focus predominantly on reducing carbon emissions from deforestation alone. However, every year vast areas of the humid tropics are disturbed by selective logging, understory fires, and habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need to understand the effect of such disturbances on carbon stocks, and how stocks in disturbed forests compare to those found in undisturbed primary forests as well as in regenerating secondary forests. Here, we present the results of the largest field study to date on the impacts of human disturbances on above and belowground carbon stocks in tropical forests. Live vegetation, the largest carbon pool, was extremely sensitive to disturbance: forests that experienced both selective logging and understory fires stored, on average, 40% less aboveground carbon than undisturbed forests and were structurally similar to secondary forests. Edge effects also played an important role in explaining variability in aboveground carbon stocks of disturbed forests. Results indicate a potential rapid recovery of the dead wood and litter carbon pools, while soil stocks (0–30 cm) appeared to be resistant to the effects of logging and fire. Carbon loss and subsequent emissions due to human disturbances remain largely unaccounted for in greenhouse gas inventories, but by comparing our estimates of depleted carbon stocks in disturbed forests with Brazilian government assessments of the total forest area annually disturbed in the Amazon, we show that these emissions could represent up to 40% of the carbon loss from deforestation in the region. We conclude that conservation programs aiming to ensure the long-term permanence of forest carbon stocks, such as REDD+, will remain limited in their success unless they effectively avoid degradation as well as deforestation.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) ; Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria - Embrapa ; UK Government Darwin Initiative ; Nature Conservancy ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) ; H2020-MSCA-RISE-2015 ; CNPq: 574008/2008-0 ; Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria - Embrapa: SEG: 02.08.06.005.00 ; UK Government Darwin Initiative: 17-023 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/ F01614X/1 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/G000816/1 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/K016431/1 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/P004512/1 ; H2020-MSCA-RISE-2015: 691053-ODYSSEA ; CNPq: PELD-RAS 441659/2016-0 ; CNPq: 458022/2013-6 ; CNPq: 305054/ 2016-3 ; Wildfires produce substantial CO2 emissions in the humid tropics during El Nino-mediated extreme droughts, and these emissions are expected to increase in coming decades. Immediate carbon emissions from uncontrolled wildfires in human-modified tropical forests can be considerable owing to high necromass fuel loads. Yet, data on necromass combustion duringwildfires are severely lacking. Here, we evaluated necromass carbon stocks before and after the 2015-2016 El Nino in Amazonian forests distributed along a gradient of prior human disturbance. We then used Landsat-derived burn scars to extrapolate regional immediate wildfire CO2 emissions during the 20152016 El Nino. Before the El Nino, necromass stocks varied significantly with respect to prior disturbance and were largest in undisturbed primary forests (30.2 +/- 2.1 Mg ha(-1), mean +/- s. e.) and smallest in secondary forests (15.6 +/- 3.0 Mg ha(-1)). However, neither prior disturbance nor our proxy of fire intensity (median char height) explained necromass losses due towildfires. In our 6.5 million hectare (6.5 Mha) study region, almost 1 Mha of primary (disturbed and undisturbed) and 20 000 ha of secondary forest burned during the 2015-2016 ElNino. Covering less than 0.2% of Brazilian Amazonia, thesewildfires resulted in expected immediate CO2 emissions of approximately 30 Tg, three to four times greater than comparable estimates fromglobal fire emissions databases. Uncontrolled understoreywildfires in humid tropical forests during extreme droughts are a large and poorly quantified source of CO2 emissions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Nino on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

UK Natural Environment Research Council ; European Research Council Advanced Investigator Award (GEM-TRAIT) ; Nature Conservancy-Oxford Martin School Climate Partnership ; NERC ; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) ; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation ; Sime Darby Foundation ; Project USA-NAS/PEER ; Project ReFlor FAPEMAT ; Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria - Embrapa ; European Research Council (H2020-MSCA-RISE-2015) ; UK government Darwin Initiative ; Nature Conservancy ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) ; Jackson Foundation ; UK Natural Environment Research Council: NE/P001092/1 ; European Research Council Advanced Investigator Award (GEM-TRAIT): 321131 ; NERC: NE/I014705/1 ; NERC: NE/K016369/1 ; NERC: NE/F005776/1 ; NERC: NE/K016385/1 ; NERC: NE/J011002/1 ; CNPq: 457914/2013-0/MCTI/ CNPq/FNDCT/LBA/ESECAFLOR ; CNPq: 403725/ 2012-7 ; CNPq: 441244/2016-5 ; CNPq: 457602/2012-0 ; Project USA-NAS/PEER: PGA-2000005316 ; Project ReFlor FAPEMAT: 0589267/2016 ; CNPq: 574008/2008-0 ; Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria - Embrapa: SEG: 02.08.06.005.00 ; European Research Council (H2020-MSCA-RISE-2015): 691053-ODYSSEA ; UK government Darwin Initiative: 17-023 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/F01614X/1 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/G000816/1 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/K016431/1 ; UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC): NE/P004512/1 ; : PQ-2 ; Meteorological extreme events such as El Nino events are expected to affect tropical forest net primary production (NPP) and woody growth, but there has been no large-scale empirical validation of this expectation. We collected a large high-temporal resolution dataset (for 1-13 years depending upon location) of more than 172 000 stem growth measurements using dendrometer bands from across 14 regions spanning Amazonia, Africa and Borneo in order to test how much month-to-month variation in stand-level woody growth of adult tree stems (NPPstem) can be explained by seasonal variation and interannual meteorological anomalies. A key finding is that woody growth responds differently to meteorological variation between tropical forests with a dry season (where monthly rainfall is less than 100 mm), and aseasonal wet forests lacking a consistent dry season. In seasonal tropical forests, a high degree of variation in woody growth can be predicted from seasonal variation in temperature, vapour pressure deficit, in addition to anomalies of soil water deficit and shortwave radiation. The variation of aseasonal wet forest woody growth is best predicted by the anomalies of vapour pressure deficit, water deficit and shortwave radiation. In total, we predict the total live woody production of the global tropical forest biome to be 2.16 Pg C yr(-1), with an interannual range 1.96-2.26 Pg C yr(-1) between 1996-2016, and with the sharpest declines during the strong El Nino events of 1997/8 and 2015/6. There is high geographical variation in hotspots of El Nino-associated impacts, with weak impacts in Africa, and strongly negative impacts in parts of Southeast Asia and extensive regions across central and eastern Amazonia. Overall, there is high correlation (r = -0.75) between the annual anomaly of tropical forest woody growth and the annual mean of the El Nino 3.4 index, driven mainly by strong correlations with anomalies of soil water deficit, vapour pressure deficit and shortwave radiation. This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Nino on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.