Transition model for coronavirus management
In: The Canadian journal of economics: the journal of the Canadian Economics Association = Revue canadienne d'économique, Volume 55, Issue S1, p. 665-704
ISSN: 1540-5982
AbstractThis paper examines the individual records of patients treated for COVID‐19 during the early phase of the pandemic in Ontario. We trace out daily transitions of patients through medical care of different intensity and address the right truncation in the database. We also examine the sojourn times and reveal duration dependence in the treatments for COVID‐19. The transition model is used to estimate and forecast the counts of patients treated for COVID‐19 in Ontario, while adjusting for the right truncation and right censoring in the sample. This research is based on the Public Health Ontario (PHO) data set from May 7, 2020.