ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ ВНЕШНЕПОЛИТИЧЕСКОГО КУРСА КАК ФАКТОР ВНУТРИПОЛИТИЧЕСКИХ ПОТЕРЬ ЛИДЕРА
В статье рассматривается проблема потерь, с которыми может столкнуться лидер, если проводимая им внешняя политика не получит поддержки населения страны. Представлены результаты эмпирического исследования, направленного на изучение связи между реализацией интересов в области безопасности, экономического благополучия, поддержания национальной идентичности и отношением граждан к проводимой политике. Установлено, что последнее определяется, прежде всего, успехами и неудачами в экономике. При этом наиболее вероятные потери, с которыми столкнется лидер, связаны с отсутствием его поддержки в ходе выборов. ; In the article the issue of losses, encountered by a political leader when his foreign policy does not find public support, is considered. The results of empirical research, aimed to investigate the relationship between the realization of national interests in the spheres of security, economic prosperity, maintenance of national identity, on the one hand, and the attitude of citizens to the political course, their readiness to support it, on the other hand, are presented. The main method of research was quasi experiment. The respondents looked through the texts, which describe foreign policy decisions and their consequences in implementation of national interests. Then they answer the questions to reveal a) attitude to the described the foreign policy, b) readiness to support it and perform political actions, resulting in lossess for the leader (protest behavior, resignation, elections' failure). The attitude to the foreign policy course and the readiness to its support are connected mainly with the consequent effects in the economy. The most likely losses, which the leader faces, concern the absence of his support during elections by the public. At the same time, it is found that the relationship between the realization of national interests and the perception of the adopted foreign policy are estimated as moderate ones (measured by the Cramer's V-criterion). In such a way, the losses could hardly be treated as sufficient condition to deny support to the leader. Their influence is mediated by the other variables, and its further research constitutes perspective for the nearest future.