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National audience ; Soda taxes aim to reduce excessive sugar consumption. Policymakers highlight the young, particularly from poor backgrounds, and high sugar consumers as groups whose behavior they would most like to influence. There are also concerns about the policy being regressive. We assess who are most impacted by soda taxes. We estimate demand using micro longitudinal data covering on-the-go purchases, and exploit the panel dimension to estimate individual specific preferences. We relate these preferences and counterfactual predictions to individual characteristics and show that soda taxes are relatively effective at targeting the sugar intake of the young, are less successful at targeting the intake of those with high total dietary sugar, and are unlikely to be strongly regressive especially if consumers benefit from averted internalities.

Soda taxes aim to reduce excessive sugar consumption. We assess who is most impacted by soda taxes. We estimate demand using micro longitudinal data covering on-the-go purchases, and exploit the panel dimension to estimate individual-specific preferences. We relate these preferences and counterfactual predictions to individual characteristics and show that soda taxes are relatively effective at targeting the sugar intake of the young, are less successful at targeting the intake of those with high total dietary sugar, and are unlikely to be strongly regressive especially if consumers benefit from averted internalities. (JEL D12, H22, H25, H71)

This thesis seeks to evaluate the Mexican soda tax of 2014 by exploring the reasons for the tax and the underlying factors that the tax seems to ignore. This soda tax, in particular, was implemented to address obesity by curbing the consumption of sugary soft drinks due to the large quantities consumed by the Mexican populous. However, as this thesis shows there are some potential pitfalls in this type of obesity prevention policy. By exploring potable water data from the World Bank, the rural and urban noncommunicable disease rates of two Mexican states, and the penetration of levels of the OXXO convenience store in each state compared to the obesity rates, an understanding of what a soda tax may ignore has been discovered. The results from exploring this data reveal that Mexico significantly lags behind other countries in terms of access to completely safe water, and there appears to be some urban and rural divide, especially in terms of income. It also reveals that more urban areas are suffering from higher rates of weight related non-communicable diseases. Finally, the OXXO penetration level data demonstrates that high densities of convenience stores may be correlated with higher obesity rates. In general this data shows that soda taxes can help curb consumption. However, in terms of real measurable changes to the health of the country, overweight rates and health care expenditures are still on the rise. Simply put, the cheap alternative to soda, water, appears to not be completely accessible for all populations. Additionally, rural regions with less obesity that rely on soda as a water alternative may be negatively affected by the soda tax, and convenience stores that sell other highly calorically dense foods are still incredibly accessible to the population, especially in regions with high obesity rates. Furthermore, it appears that the tax revenue from the soda tax is not assisting in improving water infrastructure. For this reason, certain issues should be addressed by the government to ensure the tax is working effectively and equitably for all regions of the country.

Taxes to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) such as soda drinks have been endorsed by the World Health Organization and are now in place in France, Hungary, and Mexico, and scheduled for Portugal, South Africa, and Great Britain. Such taxes have so far been impossible to enact in the United States at the state or federal level, but since 2014 seven local jurisdictions have put them in place. Three necessary conditions for local political enactment emerge from this recent experience: Democratic Party dominance, external financial support for pro-tax advocates, and a political message appropriate to the process (public health for ballot issues; budget revenue for city council votes). Roughly 40 percent of Americans live within local jurisdictions where the Democratic Party dominates, so room exists for local SSB taxes to continue spreading.