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AbstractI examine the idea of 'the long run' inPiketty (2014) and related works. In contrast to simplistic interpretations of long‐run models of income‐ and wealth‐distributionPiketty (2014) draws on a rich economic analysis that models the intra‐ and inter‐generational processes that underly the development of the wealth distribution. These processes inevitably involve both market and non‐market mechanisms. To understand this approach, and to isolate the impact of different social and economic factors on inequality in the long run, we use the concept of an equilibrium distribution. However the long‐run analysis of policy should not presume that there is an inherent tendency for the wealth distribution to approach equilibrium.

This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth in a large number of countries. It offers a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade. It is an attempt to fill the wide gap between the high demand for such models by commercial banks, international organizations, central banks and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of different theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates such as physical capital, human capital and openness. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way.

Histoire de Shanghai. By MARIE-CLAIRE BERGÈRE. [Paris: Fayard, 2002. 520 pp. €25.00. ISBN 2-21360-955-1.]Marie-Claire Bergère has written a remarkable and much needed history of modern Shanghai. Modern in this context is defined as the period that began with the arrival of foreigners in Shanghai after the Treaty of Nanjing (1842). The study concludes with the 1990s and China's imminent entry into the WTO.This book is the result of more than forty years of research and thought. The author first encountered Shanghai in 1957, on a visit described as being on a 'fishbowl' basis. That is to say she saw what her hosts wished her to see, but remained totally unaware of the violent anti-rightist struggle then raging around her. She was, however, drawn to the fascination of this extraordinary city, 'submerged by the storms of history.'