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A combination of neoclassical & historical-behavioral perspectives on consumer energy consumption is presented, using the Consumer Energy Services Module (CESM) of the Stanford PILOT Energy/Economic Modeling System (eg, Barzelay, M., "The National Energy Potential according to PILOT: Analyzing U.S. Energy Options Using the PILOT Energy-Economic Model, Stanford U, Dept of Operations Research, 1977). The CESM exhibits the factors affecting consumer energy use, ie, the level of demand for energy services & the choice of energy systems for basic energy uses of space & water heating, air conditioning, & auto driving. The model is tested with four hypothetical consumer groups, ie, the "utility maximizers," the "live for today," the "conservatives," & the "radicals." 6 Tables, 7 References. D. Dunseath.

In 1960 and 1961, the National Institute Economic Review published some articles on the car industry, on the demand for certain consumer durables, and on the demand for energy; all of them included forecasts for the years 1965 and 1970. The present article conducts a post-mortem on the performance of these forecasts so far : in particular, it compares the forecasts for 1965 with the actual figures. It then goes on to revise the forecasts for 1970—and in some cases to extend them—taking account of what has happened in the last five years.