La presente tesis doctoral persigue dos objetivos fundamentales. El primero se dirige a analizar la protección por maternidad y paternidad en nuestro Ordenamiento Jurídico desde sus inicios y hasta la actualidad, desde una perspectiva de género, para comprobar si dicha protección es dispensada por igual a hombres y mujeres, así como verificar en qué medida fomenta la corresponsabilidad entre unos y otras en los cuidados de los hijos e hijas y otros familiares. Asimismo, se analizan las medidas de conciliación para comprobar si estas perpetúan los roles de género en la crianza. Por su parte, el segundo objetivo persigue aportar soluciones a la problemática que plantea una legislación que no propicia la corresponsabilidad. Para el desarrollo de la investigación se utilizan diferentes metodologías, fundamentalmente la metodología jurídica, al constituir objeto prioritario de estudio la normativa estatal en materia laboral y de seguridad social, jurisprudencia y doctrina judicial, convenios colectivos, planes de igualdad, y estudios de la doctrina científica –fundamentalmente del ámbito jurídico-laboral-, recogidos en obras monográficas, libros colectivos y revistas científicas. También se analizan estadísticas, informes, y estudios elaborados por organismos oficiales. En el permiso por maternidad biológica, la titularidad del derecho es femenina, teniendo la finalidad de facilitar la recuperación física de la mujer trabajadora tras el embarazo, el parto y el puerperio, así como hacer posible la atención a la criatura recién nacida; por ello, atribuir la titularidad del permiso a la madre, más allá de las seis semanas de descanso obligatorias tras el parto, fomenta el rol de la mujer como cuidadora. Se comprueba que, aunque el padre puede acceder al disfrute del permiso en algunos supuestos, esta opción como medida de conciliación paterna tiene un uso escaso en la práctica, ni siquiera en el supuesto de adopción o acogimiento donde la titularidad del permiso es de ambos progenitores; concretamente, la participación masculina en la prestación por maternidad en el año 2015 fue de un 1,87%. Para la implicación del padre en la crianza, se ha establecido el permiso por paternidad. Su titularidad difiere según se trate de paternidad biológica o por adopción. En el primer supuesto dicha titularidad queda atribuida al padre, o al otro progenitor en uniones formadas por dos mujeres (en este caso el acceso materno al permiso es inexistente); por su parte, en caso de paternidad por adopción o acogimiento, la titularidad es de ambos progenitores. Su tasa de disfrute es superior al 80%, lo que evidencia que los hombres españoles responden mejor a los permisos de los que son titulares. Tras analizar los permisos por maternidad y paternidad, las medidas de conciliación, y la situación de la que partimos –el concepto de maternidad y paternidad para la ciudadanía, la baja tasa de natalidad, la discriminación laboral de las mujeres a consecuencia de la maternidad y la incidencia de esta en sus pensiones-, se evidencia la necesidad de mejorar las actuales políticas de conciliación. A tal efecto, se proponen en este trabajo unas soluciones con perspectiva de género, entre ellas, una propuesta de permisos por maternidad y paternidad iguales e intransferibles para ambos progenitores y la creación de un permiso parental. Finalmente, se concluye que tras las diferencias legales detectadas entre el permiso por maternidad y paternidad, y la falta de voluntad política para implantar en España un sistema de permisos parentales iguales e intransferibles para ambos progenitores, se oculta la división sexual de los cuidados y la persistencia de los roles de género. No cabe duda de que todo ello perpetúa la desigualdad por razón de sexo, a pesar de ser España un Estado de derecho pionero en legislación igualitaria, como la Ley de Igualdad y la Ley que autorizó el matrimonio entre personas del mismo sexo y que también permitió la adopción por parejas homosexuales. This thesis has two main objectives. The first is aimed at analyzing the protection maternity and paternity in our legal system since its inception and until today, from a gender perspective, to check if such protection is dispensed equally to men and women, as well as verify to what extent it promotes shared responsibility between each other in the care of children and other relatives. In addition, reconciliation measures are analyzed to see if these perpetuate gender roles in the rising children. Meanwhile, the second objective pursues to provide solutions to the problems posed by legislation that does not encourage responsibility. For the development of this research, different methodologies have been used, mainly legal methodology, to be a priority object of study the State regulations in labor and social security matters, jurisprudence and judicial doctrine, collective agreements, equality plans, and studies of scientific doctrine -mainly in the legal and labor areas, which they have been collected in monographic works, collective works and scientific journals. Statistics, reports, and studies produced by official agencies are also analyzed. In the license for biological maternity, the ownership of the license is feminine, in order to facilitate physical recuperation of women workers after pregnancy, childbirth and the postpartum period as well as make possible the attention to the newborn child; for that reason, allow the ownership of the license to the mother, beyond the six weeks of obligatory rest after childbirth, promotes the role of women as caregivers. It is checked that, although the father could access the enjoyment of the license in some cases, this option, as a measure of parental conciliation, has little use in the practice, not even in the case of adoption or foster care where the ownership of the license is of both parents; Specifically, male participation in maternity benefits in 2015 was 1.87%. For parent involvement in raising it has been established paternity leave. The ownership is different according to whether the paternity is biological or it is an adoption. In the first case such ownership is attributed to the father or the other progenitor in unions formed by two women (in this case the mother's access permission is nonexistent); for its part, in case of paternity by adoption or foster care, ownership is from both progenitors. Its rate of enjoyment is over 80%, evidencing that Spanish men respond better to the permissions that they are holders. After analyzing the maternity and paternity leave, the conciliation measures and the situation that we depart-the concept of motherhood and fatherhood for citizenship, the low birth rate, the employment discrimination against women as a result of motherhood and the impact of this in their pensions-, we evidence the necessity to improve the current policies of conciliation. For this purpose, some solutions with a gender perspective are proposed in this work, between them a proposal for maternity and paternity leaves equal and non-transferable for both parents and the creation of paternity leave. Finally, it is concluded that after legal differences detected between maternity leave and paternity leave, and the absence of political will for implementing in Spain a system of equal and non-transferable parental leave for both parents, it hides the sexual division of cares and the persistence of the gender roles. There is no doubt that all of this perpetuates inequality based on sex, although Spain is a pioneer state of law in equality legislation, as the Equality Law and the law which authorized same-sex marriage and also allowed the adoption by homosexual couples.
The use of chemicals is one of the key factors in the sustainability and has a particular relevance in the textile and clothing sector, due not only to the legislation related with chemicals used (specially REACH, CLP and BPR Regulations) but also to clients RSL (restricted substance list) and campaigns from non-governmental organizations, such as the Detox campaign and ZDHC programme. As response to this challenges some methodologies and tools are available:ZDHC toolsOEKO-TEX® products: STANDARD 100 (appendix 6) and DETOX TO ZEROGM SUB toolZDHC toolsThe ZDHC (Zero Zero Discharge of Hazardous Chemicals) Programme main objective is to eliminate the use of priority chemicals (11 category of chemicals) and for that has developed some tools that the companies can use, including:Manufacturing Restricted Substances List (version 1.1, from 2015) provides a list of priority chemicals and specifies the maximum concentration limit of each substance within commercial chemical formulations. It has 2 chapters, one for textiles and synthetic leather processing and the other for natural leather processing. And 2 groups, group A for raw material and finished product (substances that are banned from intentional use in facilities that process raw materials and manufacture finished products), and group B for chemical supplier (substances are restricted to concentration limits in chemical formulations commercially available from chemical suppliers)Interim MRSL Conformance Guidance, help brands and suppliers judge their confidence in whether a perceived MRSL compliant formulation from a supplier actually meets the requirements of the ZDHC MRSL standardMRSL Supplier Acknowledgement Letter (template letter)Chemical Guidance Sheets (substance use, reason for restriction, and safer alternatives), for chlorobenzenes, chlorophenols, halogenated solvents, organotins, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons/ naphthalene, toluene, long-chain perfluoroalkyl acids (LCPFAAs), nonylphenol (NP), nonylphenol ethoxylates (NPEOs), phthalates and short-chain chlorinated paraffinsChemical Management Systems (CMS) Guidance Manual (from 2015), focuses on the approach, structure and documentation needed to create and support a ZDHC Programme. The CMS is structured in five sections that follow the plan-do-check-act: commitment to CMS (plan phase), assessment, planning and prioritisation (plan phase), chemicals management (do phase), monitoring (check phase) and management review (act phase)Right to Know Disclosure Methodology Research (2014), present the ZDHC team research results on chemical compliance and disclosure methodologiesZDHC Academy provides brands and manufacturers with ZDHC certified training to improve their knowledge and practice of responsible chemical management STANDARD 100 by OEKO-TEX® (appendix 6)STANDARD 100 by OEKO-TEX® is a worldwide consistent, independent testing and certification system for raw, semi-finished, and finished textile products at all processing levels, as well as accessory materials used. The certified textile products are tested for harmful substances, legally banned and controlled substances, chemicals known to be harmful to the health (but not yet legally controlled) and parameters for health protection.Appendix 6 of STANDARD 100 by OEKO-TEX® was specially developed for companies focused in Detox campaign. The limits in this annex does not take from human ecological point of view but considering special environmental friendly production conditions, therefore the limit values are stricter (than in appendix 4) DETOX TO ZERO by OEKO-TEX®DETOX TO ZERO by OEKO-TEX® is a comprehensive verification and reporting system that prepares facilities along the textile chain for the requirements requested by the Detox campaign of Greenpeace. The DETOX TO ZERO by OEKO-TEX® service is focused on:the establishment of a transparent chemical management systema continuous improvement plan to reduce hazardous substances in the production process, e.g. comprehensive MRSL examinationwastewater and sludge measurementsimprovement of protective measures for the protection of the environmentDETOX TO ZERO provides an annual status report about chemicals used, evaluation of waste and wastewater treatment analysis and environmental protection measures so the facility and its buyers have a continuous monitoring tool focused on achieving Detox campaign alignment. In addition, OEKO-TEX® pays particular attention to the following:Elimination:Eliminating all release of toxic chemicals and recognising that there are no environmentally safe levels for hazardous substances according to Greenpeace's priority list of 11 hazardous chemicals/chemical groups.Prevention and precaution:Review and analysis of processes and measures for continuous improvement regarding preventive measures for the handling and the use of hazardous substances.Right to know:Documentation of the company's operations including training, environmental reporting, internal and external communications. One of the targets is a publicly available register on the OEKO-TEX website.Within the scope of DETOX TO ZERO by OEKO-TEX®, tests are conducted to check against the requirements of the Detox campaign, but OEKO-TEX® has added incremental elements such as, for example, resource efficiency, health protection, environmental protection and prevention of water pollution, and occupational safety.This procedure for this OEKO-TEX® service is the following:Online-application or contact an OEKO-TEX® instituteUser accesses an online questionnaire (DETOX assessment tool) to gather information about the Chemical Management System, inventory of chemicals used including CAS number, MSDS information as well as main ingredients, components additives and, if possible, information about impurities, wastewater and sludge informationOn-site visit from an OEKO-TEX® specialist to verify the stated company data and process information.Final status report including improvements and compliance level. This validity of the report is one year. A renewal can be applied for up to three months before the end of the validity period GM SUBGM SUB is a software tool for SDS (safety data sheets) and chemical management, developed by CITEVE and MACWIN company. The information is based on the chemicals used in a company, considering their SDS, places where they are used, legislation and chemical incompatibilities.Based on that information, GM-SUB automatically creates communication documents in a quick and effective manner, such as:Safety data sheet (on paper or in digital format), the complete version or a summary of the most relevant information (to be available in the places where chemicals are stored or used)Labels (for instance when the original recipient losses the label or for new recipients, when collecting samples for laboratory use, for example, or for repackaging)Awareness posters, like posters with safety alerts/ hazard and precautionary statements, like storage incompatibilities and good practice for handling and storing chemical substancesIt also allows the user to search specific substances and/or mixtures used in the company (indicating the workplaces where they are used), based on:CAS Number, EC Number or REACH registration number,Hazard classes or R-, S-, H- and P-phrasesRisk assessment of chemicals is a key issue in companies, and one of the biggest difficulties is related to determining chemical incompatibility. So GM SUB permits to check for compatibility between chemical substances used in a company, based on the hazard class and CAS number.As the protection of workers when handling chemical substances is very important, GM-SUB allows the identification of the necessary personal protective equipment, by chemical and/or by workplace, within a given workplace, when handling a particular chemical, moreover, it permits to identify the personal protective equipment for each worker.GM-SUB is continuously updated in accordance with the latestSVHClist (Substances of Very High Concern). This way at any time the user can access information on whether a substance used in the company has been placed on the candidate list or a new substance the company intend to use is already on the candidate list. These methodologies and tools are essential to the new sustainable chemistry, including reduction of hazardous chemicals (hazardous for humans or for the environment), specially to answer the challenges of the chemicals used in textile sector, namely the legislation related with chemicals speciallyREACH,CLPandBPR Regulations) but also to clients RSL (restricted substance list) and campaigns from non-governmental organizations, such as the Detox campaign and ZDHC programme.Since 2006, with the publication of theREACH(Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals) Regulation (Regulation CE 1907/2006), the chemicals start to be analyses in a more comprehensive way, which means, this Regulation was adopted to improve the protection of human health and the environment from the risks that can be posed by chemicals, so the legislation includes the articles, beside the chemical substances and the mixtures. The application of the REACH Regulation in textile articles (from fibres to final products) has three possible levels of application:The registration of substances in articles (when the substance, in quantity superior to 1 ton/year, is intended to be released from articles to provide added value)The authorization, including the candidate list of substances of very high concern (SVHC) for authorization (if an article has a substance in theSVHClist in quantity superior to 0,1%, the supplier has to provide to the client enough information to allow the safe use of the article, as a minimum the name of the substance in question has to be communicated. And if thatSVHCis present in these articles in quantities totaling over 1 ton/year, the company have to notify ECHA, no later than six months after the inclusion of the substance in the candidate list), and the annex XIV – list of substances subject to authorization (these substances cannot be placed on the market or used after a given date, unless an authorisation is granted for their specific use, or the use is exempted from authorization)The restriction defined in annex XVII (includes specific restriction for textile articles and some general restriction that are relevant to textile articles)TheBPR(Biocidal Product Regulation), Regulation EU 528/2012, concerns the placing on the market and use of biocidal products, which are used to protect humans, animals, materials or articles against harmful organisms, like pests or bacteria, by the action of the active substances contained in the biocidal product. This regulation defines that biocidal products need an authorization before they can be placed on the market, and the active substances contained in that biocidal product must be previously approved. There rules applies to several types of products (PT), including two that are relevant to textile articles, the PT2: Disinfectants and algaecides not intended for direct application to humans or animals, used to be incorporated in textiles, tissues, masks, paints and other articles or materials with the purpose of producing treated articles with disinfecting properties, and PT9: Fibre, leather, rubber and polymerized materials preservatives, used for the preservation of fibrous or polymerised materials, such as leather, rubber or paper or textile products by the control of microbiological deterioration. This product-type includes biocidal products which antagonise the settlement of micro-organisms on the surface of materials and therefore hamper or prevent the development of odour and/or offer other kinds of benefits.The Detox campaign was launched in 2011, by Greenpeace, with the main objective of remove from the textile supply chain a group of 11 categories of chemicals, until 2020. A company commitment with this campaign represent the adoption of measures to phase out the use and release of some chemicals from their global supply chain and products. The commitment is based in three fundamental principles:Zero discharge of all hazardous chemicals: this means really eliminating all releases: whether via waste water pipe discharges, other production emissions (e.g. air and solid wastes) or later life "losses" from the final product — recognising that there are no environmentally safe levels for hazardous substancesPrevention and Precaution: this means taking preventative action towards the elimination of hazardous chemicals in the face of scientific uncertainty. This should be focused on elimination at source through substitution with sustainable alternatives or even product redesignRight to know. this means that brands and their supply chains need to be fully transparent and that they need to publicly disclose information about the hazardous chemicals used and discharged when making their productsUntil now the Detox campaign has been public adopted by nineteen brands, namely,Nike, Adidas,Puma,H&M,M&S,C&A, Li-Ning,Zara,Mango, Esprit,Levi's,Uniqlo,Benetton,Victoria's Secret,G-Star RawValentino,Coop,Canepa,BurberryandPrimark. The group of 11 categories of chemicals that must be eliminated arealkylphenols,phthalates,brominated and chlorinated flame retardants,azo dyes,organotin compounds,perfluorinated chemicals,chlorobenzenes,chlorinated solvents,chlorophenols,short-chain chlorinated paraffinsandheavy metals: cadmium, lead, mercury and chromium (VI).The ZDHC (Zero Zero Discharge of Hazardous Chemicals) Programme, developed by ZDHC Foundation, takes a holistic approach to tackling the issue of hazardous chemicals in the global textile and footwear value chain. The objective is to eliminate the use of priority chemicals by focussing on the following areas:Manufacturing Restricted Substances List (MRSL): is a list of chemical substances banned from intentional use in facilities that process textile materials and trim parts in apparel and footwear. It establishes acceptable concentration limits for these substances as impurities or by-products in chemical formulations used within manufacturing facilities. It is supported by the documentZDHC MRSL V1.1, from 2015.Wastewater Quality: Well-designed, properly functioning wastewater treatment plants, good process controls and effective chemicals management are key to minimizing chemical, physical and biological pollutants discharged into the environmentAudit Protocol: was developed to ensure consistency in environmental auditing across the supply chain and sharing of audit findings. The Audit Protocol is supported by the ZDHC Chemical Management System (CMS) Guidance Manual, released in 2015Research: Research List is a list of prioritized chemical substances for which there are no safer alternatives in the market today. It lists priority chemical substances that require additional research or substitutionData and Disclosure: While implementing the Joint Roadmap, the need for integrated data management became apparent. The ZDHC Programme and its value chain participants including mills, tanneries, chemical companies and third-party service providers began exploring the challenges in data capture, reporting and global synchronizationTraining: is designed to support implementation of ZDHC standards throughout the value chain. Training is aimed at all parts of the value chain, including, brands, chemical suppliers, manufacturers and other intermediaries to adopt ambitious chemical management standardsDue to this new challenges the textile sector must implement a chemical management system that, in a first step, identify the problematic chemicals and in a second phase, look for safer alternatives. Considering that the textile wet or chemical processes (like dyeing, printing, coating, etc.), uses a huge quantity of chemicals, the management of those chemicals can only be effective if supported by tools and structured methodologies that help the chemical textile user to move for a sustainable chemistry. Relevant links:REACH Regulation:https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/SVHC candidate list:https://echa.europa.eu/candidate-list-tableAuthorization list:https://echa.europa.eu/addressing-chemicals-of-concern/authorisation/recommendation-for-inclusion-in-the-authorisation-list/authorisation-listRestrictions:https://echa.europa.eu/addressing-chemicals-of-concern/restrictions/substances-restricted-under-reachCLP Regulation:https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/clpBPR regulation:https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/biocidal-products-regulationList of authorised biocidal products:https://echa.europa.eu/information-on-chemicals/biocidal-productsDetox campaign:http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/detox/water/detox/intro/ZDHC programmehttp://www.roadmaptozero.com/programme/OEKO-TEX® Products:https://www.oeko-tex.com/en/business/business_home/business_home.xhtml
This dissertation argues that the psychic force that Freud named "the death drive" would more precisely be termed "the disability drive." Freud's concept of the death drive emerged from his efforts to account for feelings, desires, and actions that seemed not to accord with rational self-interest or the desire for pleasure. Positing that human subjectivity was intrinsically divided against itself, Freud suggested that the ego's instincts for pleasure and survival were undermined by a competing component of mental life, which he called the death drive. But the death drive does not primarily refer to biological death, and the term has consequently provoked confusion. By distancing Freud's theory from physical death and highlighting its imbrication with disability, I revise this important psychoanalytic concept and reveal its utility to disability studies. While Freud envisaged a human subject that is drawn, despite itself, toward something like death, I propose that this "something" can productively be understood as disability. In addition, I contend that our culture's repression of the disability drive, and its resultant projection of the drive onto stigmatized minorities, is a root cause of multiple forms of oppression."The Disability Drive" opens with a question: "What makes disability so sexy?" This is a counterintuitive query; after all, the dominant culture usually depicts disability as decidedly unsexy. But by performing a critical disability studies analysis of Freud's writings about sexuality and the death drive, I theorize sex as an intrinsically disabling experience and suggest that fantasies of disability may have an unrecognized sexual appeal. These possibilities lead me to introduce a new interpretive framework, "the sexual model of disability," which I posit as an alternative to disability studies' prevailing analytic paradigm, the social model of disability. While the social model defines disability as a system of oppression that isolates and excludes disabled people, the sexual model of disability goes deeper than this, locating the impetus for these exclusions in our culture's repression of the disability drive. Because disability may provoke an erotic excitement that the ego cannot bear to acknowledge, ableist culture is often torn between an urge to witness disability (e.g., by staring at disabled people) and an impulse to hide disability from view (e.g., by confining disabled people to institutions). The sexual model of disability has the potential to make interventions not only in disability studies but also in a range of other disciplines. In Chapter 1, I bring my account of the disability drive to bear on signal texts in queer theory. In doing so, I proffer an answer to a question that has long troubled disability scholars: given the many similarities between ableism and homophobia, why have queer theorists often been reluctant to engage with disability studies? Observing that founding texts in queer theory repudiate "feminist identity politics" and liken this discourse to madness and to figurative states of blindness and paralysis, I argue that these texts project the disability drive onto feminism, thus allowing queer theory to portray its own erotics as mobile, playful, and physically and mentally able. In Chapter 2, I show that the sexual model of disability can subvert a foundational concept in psychoanalysis: the disease category "hysteria." Analyzing Freud's case history Dora, which was published in 1905, in conjunction with Beyond the Pleasure Principle, which was published in 1920, I argue that Freud's notion of hysteria adumbrates his later theorization of the drive. The diagnostic category of hysteria, I contend, constitutes a projection of the disability drive onto people with what I call "undocumented disabilities," that is, nonapparent impairments for which mainstream western medicine cannot identify biological causes. One effect of this projection is that people with undocumented disabilities are figured as epistemologically disabled; that is, we are seen as distinctively lacking in the capacity to know ourselves.The social position of people with undocumented disabilities differs from that of the paradigmatic subject of disability studies: while people with undocumented impairments are often denied recognition of the disabling suffering that shapes our lives, people with disabilities that are visible and/or documented are frequently subjected to unwanted displays of pity. For this reason, "no pity" has long been a rallying cry of the disability rights movement. But is it possible to proscribe pity? In Chapter 3, I argue that instead of seeking to banish the affect of pity, disability scholars might do better to attend to the complex ways in which this affect can be incited and expressed. Toward this end, I propose a distinction between what I call "primary pity" and "secondary pity." The term "secondary pity" accords with the everyday understanding of pity, in which a person who feels pity is assumed to occupy a position of superiority in relation to a person who is pitied. Primary pity refers to a very different affective process, which is profoundly destabilizing to the ego of the person who feels pity. Derived in part from Freud's notion of "primary narcissism," my concept of primary pity occupies a liminal position between the erasure of the ego that primary narcissism entails and the buttressing of the ego involved in secondary narcissism. Because primary pity involves a complex process of identification, in which the subject and the object of pity risk becoming fantasmatically indistinguishable, this emotion threatens the ego's belief in its self-sufficiency and autonomy. I argue that primary pity's threat to the ego can be understood as a manifestation of the disability drive, and I suggest that the "no pity" position taken up by disability activists and scholars may be invested in a fantasy of overcoming the disability drive.This dissertation argues that rather than seeking to overcome the disability drive, cultural critics and activists should work to acknowledge the myriad ways in which the drive determines us. It is important to recognize and acknowledge one's determination by the disability drive because denying or repressing the ways in which this psychic force governs us will inevitably lead to the drive's being abjected onto groups of stigmatized others. In Chapter 4, I argue that in contemporary US American culture fat people constitute one such group. This chapter focuses on the drive to eat, a compulsion that I define as inseparable from the disability drive. Dependence, (on food), loss of mastery (over the intensities of the pleasures of eating), and failures of control (over what, and how much, one eats) combine to make hunger a fundamentally disabling drive. But instead of acknowledging that we are all disabled by the drive to eat, our culture abjects this drive onto fat people, whom it depicts as being driven, in ways that thin people are assumed not to be, by an out-of-control compulsion to eat. US American culture's projection of the disability drive onto fat people is intensified by racially inflected assumptions about "primitive" versus "civilized" forms of embodiment and by heteronormative constructions of "perversion." Resisting fatphobia therefore necessitates an intersectional analysis of the disability drive, an approach that takes measure of the ways in which repressing the drive reinforces multiple forms of prejudice.The central aim of this thesis is to show that the disability drive is a force that we must understand if we are to effectively challenge the many intersecting and overlapping modalities of oppression that define present-day cultural and social relations. "The Disability Drive" offers an invitation, to scholars and activists in a variety of cultural locations, to consider the ways in which our own beliefs and practices may be implicated in a hegemonic cultural endeavor whose goal is to overcome the disability drive. Because denying the drive results in the reentrenchment of oppressive social structures, I maintain that it is imperative to develop political strategies that resist the impulse to overcome the disability drive.
This report consists of two parts: Part 1 presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part 2 focuses in greater depth on a special, selected topic relevant to Malawi's development prospects. This report focuses on agricultural risk management. Malawi is now set to suffer a second year of poor harvests due to the effects of a drought that is sweeping Southern Africa. This drought has had a serious impact both on the economy and on food security, requiring a major humanitarian response. The current situation underscores Malawi's serious need to improve the resilience of the agricultural sector and to develop a better system of risk management. With the country expected to continue to face climate-induced shocks into the future, it is vital that the Government considers how best to mitigate the impact of such shocks. In 2015 Malawi recorded a GDP growth rate of just 2.8 percent, with this low rate the result of both adverse weather conditions and macroeconomic instability. Flooding in southern districts followed by a countrywide drought resulted in a contraction in agricultural production. Maize, the key crop in terms of food security, recorded a 30.2 percent year-on-year drop in production. As a result, an estimated 2.8 million people (17 percent of the population) were unable to meet their 2015/16 food requirements.
This background note focuses on the use of bond buybacks and bond exchanges in the domestic government securities market. The objective is to provide an overview of their functions and of the procedures that facilitate their implementation, using country examples as illustrations.
North Sulawesi province is one of the most developed provinces in eastern Indonesia. Far-reaching development has taken place over the past ten years. Presently, North Sulawesi province has the second highest Human Development Index score in Indonesia, and its poverty rate is low in comparison with other provinces. Over the past decade, per capita gross regional domestic product (GRDP) has doubled and sub-national government spending has increased significantly. Nevertheless, there remain various development challenges to address as well as various potential resources and opportunities to pursue. North Sulawesi's performance in regional financial management has been relatively good, but discrepancies remain in the performance and capacity of different work units within each regional government and also between different regional governments in the province. To address challenges, take opportunities, and increase development performance, sub-national governments in North Sulawesi, particularly the provincial government, need to better utilize their fiscal resources. Clearer vision, mission, indicators and development targets must be accompanied by greater efforts to prepare a more directed budget, and to formulate higher quality programs and activities more consistent with planning targets. This report is an effort to assist North Sulawesi's sub-national governments to improve their regional financial management performance, to improve the quality of planning and budgeting, and finally to contribute to local development performance. The report results from strong cooperation between sub-national governments in North Sulawesi province, the Economics Faculty of Sam Ratulangi University, which was supported by CIDA, the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) and the World Bank. North Sulawesi Province BAPPEDA (Head of the Regional Development Planning Agency) played an important role in facilitating the preparation of this report. It is expected that this report will benefit North Sulawesi's sub-national governments, sub-national governments elsewhere in Indonesia and the central government by serving as a reference for efforts to improve sub-national financial management performance and the regional development process. Finally, this report can contribute to better and more effective sub-national financial management and governance. Overall, North Sulawesi's strategic sectors (health, education, infrastructure and agriculture) are performing better than in other provinces in eastern Indonesia.
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky had an unusually packed travel schedule this week, with stops in Argentina, the United States, and Norway. His message was clear: If Ukraine has any chance of pushing Russia out of all of its territory, it will only come from sustained Western support. But Zelensky's requests for aid earned a much different response than they did at Christmas time last year, when confidence in Kyiv's military was at a historic high. This time around, the Ukrainian leader found himself shadow-boxing with right-wing skeptics of Ukraine aid at every turn. In Buenos Aires, where Zelensky attended the Sunday inauguration of President Javier Milei, news cameras caught the frustrated leader in "an intense-looking conversation" with Viktor Orban, Hungary's prime minister and the primary obstacle for Kyiv's bid to join the European Union. Back in Washington on Tuesday, Zelensky faced down Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), the primary obstacle for any future U.S. aid to Ukraine. Johnson ripped into President Joe Biden's approach to the war after meeting with Zelensky. "What the Biden administration seems to be asking for is billions of additional dollars with no appropriate oversight, no clear strategy to win and with none of the answers that I think the American people are owed," Johnson argued. Johnson and his GOP allies have now made clear that President Joe Biden will have to make significant compromises in order to secure new funding. Their primary ask is a series of new border control measures that most Democrats view as over the line, leaving little room for compromise. Even Biden — who has long promised to support Ukraine "as long as it takes" — could only muster a pledge to arm Kyiv "as long as we can." In Oslo, Zelensky got a friendlier reception on Wednesday from Nordic leaders, who promised new bilateral aid packages. Later that day, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez — who currently chairs the EU Council — said Kyiv could enter into official negotiations to join the EU as soon as this year. But this upbeat moment proved fleeting. In a speech at an EU summit, Orban made clear that, whatever argument he may have gotten from Zelensky in Buenos Aires, there is little chance that he will change his mind on Ukraine's accession bid. The idea that the EU should start membership talks with Kyiv is "absurd, ridiculous, and not serious," he argued. "Our stance is clear. We do not support Ukraine's quick EU entry," Orban later wrote on Facebook. On a more promising note for Ukraine, Orban has been more open to horse trading when it comes to aid. After days of back-and-forth, the EU agreed Wednesday that it would release funding for Hungary that had previously been withheld due to alleged democratic backsliding. An Orban aide said Hungary would be open to relenting on Ukraine aid if that money comes through. If Budapest holds to the deal, the EU could announce a roughly $55 billion aid package for Kyiv as soon as Friday. The timing could scarcely be more important for Ukraine. As its forces struggle against Russian soldiers at home, recent Dutch elections have created the possibility that far-right firebrand Geert Wilders could be the next prime minister of the Netherlands. Wilders, whose party opposes aid to Ukraine and wants to hold a referendum to leave the EU, has so far failed to form a coalition but is considered to be in the strongest position to lead the country's next government. If Wilders wins out in the end, Kyiv would likely be among the biggest losers. Even if Wilders loses, all signs now point to a delay in U.S. funding until at least early January, setting Kyiv up for a difficult winter. Conscious of the diplomatic headwinds, Zelensky struck a defiant tone in a Thursday address to the EU, which he delivered via video link from Kyiv. "This day will go down in our history. Whether it's good or bad for us, history will capture everything," he said. "It's very important that Europe doesn't fall back into indecision today." In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine: — The U.S. declassified an intelligence report claiming that Russia has suffered over 300,000 casualties in Ukraine, though the report does not distinguish between deaths and injuries, according to the New York Times. The report, which argues that Russian President Vladimir Putin's short-term goal is to reduce Western support for Ukraine, highlights the destructive impact that the conflict has had on Russia's army. The decision to release the report suggests a shift in the Biden administration's PR strategy, which has deemphasized the argument that the war is a "low cost" way to deliver Moscow a strategic loss — a line that some see as confirmation that the U.S. is pursuing a proxy war with Russia and has perverse incentives to extend it. — Lawmakers from across Europe called on the U.S. Congress to pass aid for Ukraine, arguing that American support is "critical and urgent," according to Reuters. "A Putin victory would embolden our enemies around the world: they are watching and hoping we grow tired," wrote the group, led by French MP and former foreign policy analyst Benjamin Haddad. "Ukrainians are fighting so we don't have to." — Putin held a major news conference on Thursday where he reiterated his goals for the war — "denazification, demilitarization and [Ukraine's] neutral status" — and revealed that Russia has 617,000 soldiers in Ukraine, according to the BBC. The Russian leader played down his military's middling performance and alleged that Western "freebies" for Ukraine "are gradually running out." Notably, he suggested that there has been some progress in talks for a U.S.-Russia prisoner exchange that could bring home ex-Marine Paul Whelan and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. "On the whole we're speaking in a language which we both understand," Putin said. "I hope we find a solution." U.S. State Department news:In a Monday press conference, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the U.S. is "deeply concerned" for the well-being of Alexei Navalny, a prominent Russian dissident who recently disappeared from a Russian penal colony, according to his lawyers. "We have communicated to the Russian Government that they are responsible for what happens to Mr. Navalny while he is in their custody, and they will be held accountable by the international community," Miller said.
This study explores how to use techniques of prospective analysis in order to incorporate dynamic factors that put into risk the persistence of biodiversity into systematic conservation planning. Land use and cover change (LUCC) and climate change (CC) represent the main impacts and future threats to biodiversity and thus were the subject of analyses that provided information on prioritization for conservation actions. Since LUCC, CC and biodiversity loss, as well as the related socio-economic structures take place on a regional scale, this work is based on a large watershed in southern Mexico, the Grijalva-Usumacinta Basin. This basin is not only one of the most important areas for biological diversity, but is also renowned for its cultural complexity and hydrological importance and the multiple environmental and social problems that put biodiversity in peril. The main finding is that deforestation and forest degradation are the main LUCC processes and their high rates and strong future trends make it difficult to get to the point of forest transition in the near future, when deforestation and regeneration are balanced. Nevertheless, the scenario analysis shows that it is possible to influence LUCC trajectories in a substantial way in order to halt negative effects over biodiversity in the next decade. CC represents an additional threat to biodiversity difficult to evaluate, especially if the multiple synergistic effects between CC and LUCC are considered that could lead to much higher impacts. Anyway, the analysis showed that even until 2030 CC could have impacts on bioclimatic variables and species composition that could further hamper conservation efforts in the study area. Criteria for a proactive prioritization of sites for conservation are proposed based on scenarios of LUCC and CC. These criteria are used to identify "hot spots" (high probability of LUCC and severe CC impacts) and "refuges" (high probability of permanence and minor CC impacts). This joint analysis of CCUS and CC shows that there are differences between the conservation and the probable scenario; the effort needed to conserve the biodiversity contained in the priority sites in the conservation scenario is considerable less. The spatial pattern of hot spots and refuges of change is very similar across scenarios, despite the differences in absolute areas compromised by each. ; Este estudio explora cómo aplicar técnicas de análisis prospectivos para incorporar factores dinámicos que ponen en riesgo la persistencia de biodiversidad en la planeación sistemática de la conservación (PSC). El cambio de cobertura y uso del suelo (CCUS) y el cambio climático (CC) representan los impactos y amenazas futuras más importantes para la biodiversidad, por lo que fueron escogidos como sujetos de análisis que proveen información para la priorización para acciones de conservación. Como el CCUS, el CC, la pérdida de biodiversidad, así como las estructuras socio-económicas relacionadas, ocurren a una escala regional, este trabajo está basado en una cuenca grande en el sur de México. La cuenca Grijalva-Usumacinta no sólo es una de las áreas más biodiversas en el mundo, también es reconocida por su complejidad cultural y su importancia hidrológica. A la vez se han documentado diversos problemas ambientales y sociales que ponen en peligro la persistencia de la biodiversidad. El resultado principal es que la deforestación y la degradación forestal son los procesos dominantes de CCUS y sus altas tasas y fuertes tendencias hacia el futuro vuelven difícil de llegar al punto de la transición forestal, en el cual la deforestación y la regeneración son balanceadas. Sin embargo, el análisis de escenarios muestra que es posible influenciar las trayectorias de CCUS de manera sustancial para detener los efectos adversos en la biodiversidad en la próxima década. El CC representa una amenaza adicional para la biodiversidad difícil de evaluar, especialmente si se consideran los múltiples efectos sinérgicos entre el CC y el CCUS que podrían hacer que el impacto sea mucho mayor. Aun así, el análisis mostró que hasta el 2030 el CC podría tener impactos en las variables bioclimáticas y la composición de especies que podrían dificultar más los esfuerzos de conservación en el área de estudio. Se proponen criterios para una priorización proactiva de la conservación son propuestos basados en escenarios de CCUS y CC. Estos criterios son usados para identificar focos rojos (alta probabilidad de CCUS e impactos de CC severos) y refugios (alta probabilidad de permanencia natural e impactos de CC menores). Este análisis conjunto de CCUS y CC muestra que hay diferencias entre el escenario de conservación y el escenario probable; el esfuerzo necesario para conservar la biodiversidad dentro de los sitios prioritarios es considerablemente menor. Los patrones espaciales de los focos rojos de cambio y los refugios son muy similares en los dos escenarios, a pesar de la diferencia absoluta de áreas en cada uno. ; Dans les régions néo-tropicales, l'augmentation des taux de changements d'occupation et d'usages des sols et une forte déforestation durant la deuxième moitié du 20e siècle ont engendré une forte dégradation de l'environnement et une forte perte de biodiversité. Cette étude analyse les empreintes spatiales et les processus des changements d'occupation et d'usages des sols et de la déforestation pour le bassin versant du Grijalva-Usumacinta, l'un des plus importants du sud Mexique en matière hydrologique et de biodiversité, pour être confrontée aux discussions sur les changements forestiers émergents. Des cartes d'occupation et d'usages des sols de 1992, 2002 et 2007, dérivées d'images satellitaires et de photographies aériennes sont utilisées pour tester l'hypothèse d'un changement de trajectoires d'évolution à l'échelle régionale. Les probabilités et taux de changements ont été calculés pour les deux périodes 1992-2002 et 2002-2007, et les processus de changements dominants ont été identifiés. Les changements d'occupation et d'usages des sols sont complexes et ne peuvent s'expliquer par une histoire prédominante et linéaire de la déforestation. Deux des principaux résultats concernent (1) un taux anormalement élevé de dégradation des forêts primaires, équivalent à 1,7 fois la surface déforestée ; (2) les processus de déforestation se produisent principalement dans les forêts secondaires. Les activités agricoles, encouragées par les politiques publiques, sont les principaux moteurs de ces changements, parmi lesquelles le pâturage a le plus d'impact sur la déforestation. Les probabilités et taux de déforestation et de changement d'occupation et d'usages de sols ont stagné alors que la reforestation naturelle a augmenté. Bien que ces tendances sont essentielles pour le commencement de la transition forestière, la déforestation et la dégradation l'emportent bien sur la repousse de la végétation.
Lima, la capital del Perú, se asentó en un valle en medio del desierto costero frente al Océano pacífico convirtiéndose inicialmente en una villa agrícola y posteriormente en una gran metrópolis. A partir de entonces, su desarrollo estuvo sujeto al devenir del pensamiento occidental y, por lo tanto, de espaldas a su historia y a su cultura. La nueva configuración se impuso sobre la espacialidad indígena ya marcada anteriormente en el territorio, con caminos y construcciones incas y pre-incas, monumentos emblemáticos de nuestro acervo cultural. Este hecho implicó en el alma indígena una disociación con su territorio y su cultura original. Durante el inicio de la segunda década del siglo XX, resurgió la necesidad de mirar nuevamente las raíces culturales como un medio para recuperar y crear una identidad. Este intento se vio oportunamente respaldado cuando Leguía llegó al poder (1919-1930) e instauró la "Patria Nueva", con el propósito de darle a su gobierno un nuevo giro de nacionalismo. Esta época coincidió, además, con dos eventos celebratorios en el país: el centenario de la Independencia del Perú (1821-1921) y el centenario de la Batalla de Ayacucho (1824-1924). Ambos eventos propiciaron proyectos significativos de renovación urbana y de emplazamientos de monumentos, generando el mayor programa de arte público que se haya dado en la capital del Perú. De los ocho monumentos situados dentro del perímetro y en los márgenes de la Lima colonial, la cantidad de monumentos emplazados en la capital aumentó considerablemente. Se sumaron aproximadamente unos veintitrés nuevos monumentos y nuevos espacios públicos en los que se pudo identificar algunos que sobresalieron del conjunto por la utilización de algunos elementos de la iconografía prehispánica, dando fe visiblemente de una intención indigenista dentro de los artistas de la época. Sin embargo, aunque los elementos constitutivos de los monumentos no expresaron en su mayoría una concepción formal y estética que remarcara valores de identidad nacional, constituyeron un conjunto monumental de gran valor artístico en relación con el entorno urbano. Por lo tanto, conservar la memoria de la historia urbanística de esta época de Lima y de su patrimonio monumental es ponerlos en valor frente a la caótica transformación del entorno urbano actual. ; Lima, the capital city of Perú, settled in a dessert valley in the Pacific Ocean coast was born as an agricultural town which developed into a metropolis in the last century. This change was leaded by western city planning, neglecting its own historical and cultural ways of doing so. This new urban configuration was imposed over its local sense of spaciousness, sweeping out Inca and pre-Inca landmarks such as roads, constructions and temples, emblematic monuments of local culture whose loss, with time leaded to an estrangement of the indigenous soul with its own territory and culture.With President Leguía's government (1919-1930), arose the need to search again for a native culture as a means to restore or create local identity, giving birth to a nationalist and cultural movement, the "Patria Nueva" (New Motherland). This coincided with the commemoration of the Peruvian Independence Centenary (1821-1921) and the Ayacucho Battle Centenary (1824-1924), events that propitiated important urban renewal projects, including many monuments that with time turn to be the most important public art program in the city's history.Besides the eight monuments that already existed inside the city's perimeters, this public art program added about twenty three new monuments and public spaces, between which stood out those made by the artists of the Indigenists Movement, who intentionally used pre-Hispanic iconographical elements. Although the great artistic value of this monuments, the iconographic motives incorporated didn't really imply a profound change in the formal and aesthetic design and conception towards a much wished rescue of national identity values.Therefore, keeping this monumental patrimony as part of Lima's memory and history is a way of restoring its value as opposed to the chaotic transformations of the current urban environment. ; Lima, la capital del Perú, se asentó en un valle en medio del desierto costero frente al Océano Pacífico convirtiéndose inicialmente en una villa agrícola y posteriormente en una gran metrópolis. A partir de entonces, su desarrollo estuvo sujeto al devenir del pensamiento occidental y, por lo tanto, de espaldas a su historia y a su cultura. La nueva configuración se impuso sobre la espacialidad indígena ya marcada anteriormente en el territorio, con caminos y construcciones incas y pre-incas, monumentos emblemáticos de nuestro acervo cultural. Este hecho implicó en el alma indígena una disociación con su territorio y su cultura original. Durante el inicio de la segunda década del siglo XX, resurgió la necesidad de mirar nuevamente las raíces culturales como un medio para recuperar y crear una identidad. Este intento se vio oportunamente respaldado cuando Leguía llegó al poder (1919-1930) e instauró la "Patria Nueva", con el propósito de darle a su gobierno un nuevo giro de nacionalismo. Esta época coincidió, además, con dos eventos celebratorios en el país: el centenario de la Independencia del Perú (1821-1921) y el centenario de la Batalla de Ayacucho (1824-1924). Ambos eventos propiciaron proyectos significativos de renovación urbana y de emplazamientos de monumentos, generando el mayor programa de arte público que se haya dado en la capital del Perú. De los ocho monumentos situados dentro del perímetro y en los márgenes de la Lima colonial, la cantidad de monumentos emplazados en la capital aumentó considerablemente. Se sumaron aproximadamente unos veintitrés nuevos monumentos y nuevos espacios públicos en los que se pudo identificar algunos que sobresalieron del conjunto por la utilización de algunos elementos de la iconografía prehispánica, dando fe visiblemente de una intención indigenista dentro de los artistas de la época. Sin embargo, aunque los elementos constitutivos de los monumentos no expresaron en su mayoría una concepción formal y estética que remarcara valores de identidad nacional, constituyeron un conjunto monumental de gran valor artístico en relación con el entorno urbano. Por lo tanto, conservar la memoria de la historia urbanística de esta época de Lima y de su patrimonio monumental es ponerlos en valor frente a la caótica transformación del entorno urbano actual.
Europa, símbolo de paz, prosperidad y diversidad cultural, afronta en la actualidad una serie de desafíos como el auge de los radicalismos, la pérdida de identidad, la intolerancia, el desencanto político o las discrepancias entre los estados que hacen peligrar los pilares que cimentaron su unión. Para canalizar estos retos sociales el Consejo de Europa propone actuar de forma trasversal desde la educación a través del «Marco de Referencia en Competencias para una Cultura Democrática» (2018). Paralelamente, la velocidad sobre la que gira el mundo contemporáneo caracterizado por la omnipresencia de las pantallas y la difusión de un volumen de información difícil de manejar deja escaso lugar para la reflexión. El videoclip se sitúa en este ecosistema mediático y tecnológico como un producto cultural propicio para los jóvenes, pero a su vez repleto de mensajes que descifrar. De ahí que una alfabetización audiovisual se presente como necesaria para indagar en esos mensajes que se pretenden proyectar y que, a través de una reflexión crítica, pueden emanar. Por lo tanto, esta tesis responde a la necesidad de analizar el potencial educativo del videoclip como instrumento motivador y efectivo con el que trabajar las competencias para una cultura democrática y el diálogo intercultural en el aula de lenguas extranjeras. En cuanto a la metodología empleada, aunque se han utilizado técnicas cuantitativas, la investigación se ha guiado por el análisis cualitativo de 47 videoclips en español a través del programa Atlas.ti. Además, como fundamento teórico para dicho análisis textual se ha recurrido al enfoque multimodal y a la narrativa audiovisual. Los resultados indican que una parte de los videoclips más visualizados en español refleja contenido en competencias democráticas. No obstante, abundan los vídeos musicales donde se han detectado temáticas frecuentes como la reducción de la figura de la mujer y su relación con el hombre, el elogio a la belleza y a la juventud, la preponderancia de la clase media-alta unida a la riqueza material y al éxito, el hedonismo como estilo de vida y la sensualidad. A su vez, se ha percibido que la tendencia musical actual en español procede de Hispanoamérica a través del reguetón, principalmente. Aun así, el corpus se caracteriza por la variedad de géneros musicales empleados, entre los que destacan el pop, el pop urbano, la rumba y el funk carioca por formar parte de videoclips con una comprensión auditiva más favorable. Por otra parte, se ha contemplado una representación heterogénea de las competencias para una cultura democrática. Destacan los valores, seguidos de las actitudes y, en menor medida, las habilidades, los conocimientos y la comprensión crítica. Las competencias más destacadas han sido aquellas relacionadas con la diversidad cultural. Además, los datos revelan que es difícil hallar un videoclip con alusiones a las competencias democráticas y que a su vez cuente con todos los recursos sonoros adecuados para una comprensión auditiva efectiva. Asimismo, desde un punto de vista didáctico, se han observado dos tipos de competencias: aquellas proyectadas mediante diferentes estrategias en los videoclips y las que no se retratan en estos documentos audiovisuales, pero con las que se podría trabajar a partir de los vídeos músicales. En lo que se refiere a la dimensión hispana, la cultura proyectada se vincula con el ocio y el tiempo libre. Además, los videoclips suelen mostrar con más frecuencia conocimientos factuales y concretos relacionados con los referentes culturales, los saberes y comportamientos socioculturales que conceptos abstractos vinculados a las habilidades y actitudes interculturales. Finalmente, a partir de los resultados obtenidos, se ofrece una guía docente para seleccionar y trabajar con vídeos musicales en la clase de lenguas extranjeras a través de las competencias para una cultura democrática y el diálogo intercultural. ; Europe, formerly a symbol of peace, prosperity and cultural diversity, currently faces a number of challenges such as the rise of radicalism, loss of identity, intolerance, political disillusionment or discrepancies between states that threaten the foundations of a united Europe. In order to address these social concerns, the Council of Europe pursues the use of Education as a medium in a transversal manner by means of the "Reference Framework of Competences for Democratic Culture" (2018). In parallel, reflection appears to have become a rare element in the constantly changing world of technology and screens. The music video is located within this media and technological context as a cultural product appropriate for young people but at the same time replete with messages to be decoded. Accordingly, it is important to introduce audiovisual literacy to attempt to understand this content by using critical reflection. This dissertation seeks to analyse the educational potential of a music video as a motivating and effective tool to work within the competences for democratic culture and intercultural dialogue in the foreign language classroom. As far as the method is concerned, although quantitative techniques were used, a qualitative procedure was primarily employed to analyse a sample comprising 47 music videos in Spanish. In order to conduct systematic research, the qualitative data analysis and research software Atlas.ti was used. The theoretical frameworks which supported the study were multimodality and audiovisual narrative. The results show that a part of the current music videos in Spanish disseminated via global music-streaming services reflects the content on democratic competences. However, most music videos still frequently display topics such as woman's objectification and her relationship to man, praise of beauty and youth, prominence of the uppermiddle class linked to material wealth and success, hedonism as a lifestyle and sensuality. At the same time, there is a tendency for music in Spanish to derive from present-day Hispanic America, primarily reggaeton. However, the sample analysed is characterised by a variety of music genres, the main ones being pop, urban pop, rumba and funk carioca, since they were employed to create music videos with precise listening comprehension. On the other hand, the results reveal a varied projection of competences for democratic culture, with values being the most representative ones, followed by attitudes, skills and knowledge and critical understanding. The most recurrent competences were those linked to cultural diversity. In addition, the empirical findings in this study provide a new understanding of democratic competences from a didactic perspective, since two typologies were identified. The first was presented visibly in the music videos employing different strategies, unlike the second which was not projected in them. However, it could be possible to work with this type through music videos, with the music video serving as a learning tool in this case. As far as representation of the Hispanic cultural topic is concerned, it is largely associated with free time and leisure activities. Overall, music videos more frequently display factual and specific knowledge associated with cultural references and sociocultural knowledge and behaviours than abstract concepts about intercultural skills and attitudes. Finally, this study provides a pedagogic guide to selecting and working with music videos in the foreign language classroom to promote the development of competences for democratic culture and intercultural dialogue.
Tiraspol fortified area was equipped on the left (eastern) bank of the Dniester river, from the mouth of the Yahorlyk river to Kuchurhansky estuary. The left (northern) flank of the fortified area bordered and closely interacted with the right (southern) flank of the Rybnytsya FA, the right (southern) near the town Mayaky was built on the Dniester estuary. The major operational areas of the fortified area were: Tiraspol – Zatyshshya station; Bendery – Tiraspol – Rozdilna station, both areas derive to the railroad Kyiv – Odesa. The data' importance was determined with: dislocation of the Romanian army military units close to the border, broad valleys of the Reut and Byk rivers, the outputs of which are covered with gardens and forests, that allowed the enemy to come hiddenly to the Dniester, and to the dominant banks of the Dniester on the enemy's side, the possibility to counteract with enemy's land troops with its naval forces. Thus the fortified area covered an important strategic direction and took an important place in the southern defense complex of Stalin line, built on the river Dniester.On May 31, 1941 in Tyraspol fortified area mobilization measures were carried out. To the garrison's structure were included: the 64th, the 65th, the 66th, the 72nd, the 73rd and the 74th separate machine-gun battalions, the 397th Artillery Regiment, 11 platoons of casemate artillery, the 150th Separate Intercommunication Battalion, the 136th Separate Engineering Battalion, the 221st Separate Motor platoon.So after mobilization activities conducting the Tiraspol garrison fortified area personnel accounted more than ten thousand soldiers and commanders. The garrison of the fortified area was armed with: 632 heavy machine guns "Maxim", 285 Dehtyaryov light machine guns, about a hundred artillery cannons of various calibers, 26 MS-1 tanks (with 45-mm cannon), 100 tractors and nearly three thousand horses.It is known that because of enemy's breach on the Mohyliv Yampil fortified area main defense line, it got the opportunity to lead active offensive operations to the south along the left bank of the Dniester. This led to the release of significant enemy forces in the rear of the Rybnytsya and flank of the Tiraspol fortified areas. After breaking through the main defense line of the Tyraspol FA near Dubossary the 9th Army troops of Southern Front came under the threat of circulation near Kodym, Kotovsk, Dubossary. Therefore, the Southern Front command was forced to give the order to move away from the main defense line of the Tiraspol fortified area.The further actions of the Tiraspol garrison fortified area are described in the former chief engineer of the Southern Front, the Soviet Union Hero, Major General Arkady Khrenov's memoirs: ".If the Prymorska Army went beyond the Dniester in relative order, it was the great merit of the Tyraspol fortified area. Starting from July 25, 1941, the fortified area strongly beat continuous enemy attacks off. During twelve days the fortified area was kept - kept till the end, until the enemy began to bypass it from the right flank, pushing the 9th Army forces".The Tyraspol fortified area was holding the enemy in check for twelve days, providing retreat to the Dniester Prymorska Army's parts, as it was included to its stuff at the end of July. The length of the fortified area on the front was a hundred and fifty miles. On August 4, 1941, when troops of the 9th Army retreated, exposing its right flank, a real threat of encirclement appeared. The fortified areas could be attacked from the rear and captured by the enemy together with its arms and material property. Therefore, on August 5, 1941 the Military Council of Prymorska Army gave to the Tyraspol fortified area commandant Colonel G. Kochenov order to leave long-termed fire facilities, to take people with weapons, vehicles and all ammunition out, and to use it to replenish the field troops. Commandant of the Tyraspol fortified area completed the order: during the 6th of August, 1941 under the guise of one single machine-gun battalion, and one artillery battalion that beat off numerous enemy attacks, ammunition and numerous material resources were taken off to Karpov railway station, that were loaded into wagons and sent to Odesa to which was just forty miles. In the evening the fortified area garrison, removing mounted machine-guns from the long-term fire facilities, and having exploit forty seven 76-mm casemate cannons, hastily retreated with Prymorska Army parts. The machine-gun long-term fire facilities of the Tyraspol fortified area were not prepared in advance for undermining, and that's why they were failed to destroy."On August 7, 1941 all the units of the Tiraspol garrison fortified area retreated to the railway station Karpov. Hence, by order of the Chief of Front Headquarter, General Sheshenin, two separate gun battalions were sent to Odesa to overhaul, and before to the disposal of the Prymorska Army headquarter from the Tiraspol fortified area garrison were sent separate battalions – Sapper and Intercommunication. The remaining individual gun battalions and an artillery regiment joined the Prymorska Army infantry divisions. Thus, the Tyraspol fortified area ceased to exist. Instead the Prymorska Army has added eleven thousand well-trained gunners, artillery, engineers, signalers, intelligence, was about 500 machine-guns and 320 hand-held heavy machine guns with 3.5 million live rounds, the regiment of artillery guns with five fighting sets for each cannon. This significantly increased the combat power of two infantry divisions of Prymorska Army".Germans also left their memories associated with breakthrough of the Tyraspol FA. So they, in particular, wrote: The Russians fortified well the isthmus near the settlement Pogreby in the Tiraspol district, correctly assuming that the attacker, using the hidden beneficial opportunities of access to the water obstacle, in this very place and trying to make a break through and forcing a defensive position on the Dniester.At the isthmus 3 km wide, that was the sloping, open area behind the anti- tank ditch 2.5-3 m wide, polygonal obstacles and invisible barbed wires, there were four machine guns long-term defensive facilities with twelve machine guns that fired on the front and on the flanks, and a tank fire facility for combating armored targets and artillery on opened fire positions and infantry. Among them were located numerous well camouflaged positions of the field type. Artillery fire was opposed with artillery batteries that were hidden in the valley and on the reverse slopes of hills to the east of the road Tyraspol – Grigoriopol.Areas of heavy weapons firing were displayed after firing positions studying of defense positions, Russian drawings were not found. Field of fire from the long-term fire facilities were mostly well looked through, but facility 711 was not very favorably situated. Protection of terrains that were not covered by long-term defensive facilities and other tactically important points were provided with heavy machine guns, for them were made alternative firing positions.With typical for Germans thoroughness and a tendency to analyze the actions of the enemy, German experts summarized the Tyraspol FA breakout: "The fact that this attack has been completed successfully in a short time with relatively small losses is the result o, firstly, the training quality of the German troops, and secondly the failure of Russian command that could not use properly the high defense possibilities of the fortified area, combining concrete ramparts and defensive positions of the field type". The preparation experience for speeding and breaking heavily fortified positions gained on the Dniester river and in other parts of the battle, it follows that the Russian defensive positions might be destroyed by means of military engineering troops, such as flamethrowers and smoke bombs combined with lumped charges of explosives and hand grenades during fire heavy weapons infantry cover. ; Реконструирован ход боевых действий в полосе Тираспольского укрепленного района летом 1941 года и указаны причины его прорыва. ; Реконструйовано хід бойових дій в смузі Тираспольського укріпленого району влітку 1941 року та вказано причини його прориву.
Der Energiesektor Deutschlands befindet sich aktuell in einem Transformationsprozess, bei dem die ursprünglich fossile und nukleare Rohstoffbasis zunehmend durch erneuerbare Energiequellen ersetzt wird. Ein entscheidender Auslöser dieser Energiewende war die Implementierung des Energiekonzeptes der Bundesregierung im Jahr 2010. Neben der Substitution traditioneller durch erneuerbare Energieträger, beinhaltet die Umsetzung der Energiewende weitere ökologische, ökonomische und soziale Ziele. Diese umfassen a) eine Verbesserung des Umweltschutzes, b) die Gewährleistung angemessener Energiepreise für Konsumenten, c) den Erhalt der wirtschaftlichen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Entwicklung sowie d) eine Verringerung der Importabhängigkeit von Energieträgern. Um die komplexen Auswirkungen der Umsetzung der Energiewende auf die deutsche Volkswirtschaft zu ermitteln, verfolgt diese Dissertation zwei Ziele. Das erste Ziele ist die Entwicklung eines Allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodells (CGE Modell) für Deutschland, auf dessen Basis ein Monitoring der Energiewende möglich ist und Politikempfehlungen abgeleitet werden können. Das zweite Ziel ist die Anwendung dieses Modells, um die Auswirkungen der Umsetzung der Energiewende im Stromsektor unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Agrarsektors zu analysieren. Diese Arbeit stellt die Entwicklung des Static Applied General Equilibrium Modells für Deutschland (STAGE_D) sowie der zugrunde liegenden Datenbasis in Form einer Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) vor. Bei der Daten- und Modellentwicklung wird dabei das Problem adressiert, dass das homogene Produkt Strom durch unterschiedliche Technologien mit unterschiedlichen Kostenstrukturen erzeugt wird. STAGE_D bildet sowohl bestehende Technologien (Kernkraft, Kohle, Gas usw.), als auch neue Technologien (Wind, Sonne und Biomasse) zur Stromerzeugung ab. Den Agrarsektor präsentiert STAGE_D als einen Multi-Produkt-Sektor auf Ebene der Bundesländer. Somit können regionale Unterschiede der landwirtschaftlichen Produktionsstrukturen Deutschlands in CGE-Analysen einbezogen werden. STAGE_D erfasst ebenso CO2-Emissionen, die durch den Einsatz energetischer Rohstoffe durch Industrie und Haushalt verursacht werden. Im Rahmen der Anwendung des Modells STAGE_D werden drei Szenarien analysiert. Diese untersuchen i) die Auswirkungen des Atomausstiegs, ii) die vollständige Umsetzung der Ziele der Energiewende im Stromsektor sowie iii) die Rolle der Verstromung von Biomasse im Agrarsektor. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Energiewende im Stromsektor negative Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaftskraft Deutschlands hat. Dies zeigt sich durch einen Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukts infolge eines Produktionsrückgangs der heimischen Wirtschaft in allen Szenarien. Die Einführung neuer, teurerer Technologien zur Stromerzeugung führt zu höheren Strompreisen für Industrie und Haushalte. Für die Industrie erhöhen sich die Produktionskosten, Haushalte haben weniger Einkommen für den Konsum anderer Güter und Dienstleistungen zur Verfügung. Der Produktionsrückgang der heimischen Wirtschaft bewirkt darüber hinaus eine Verringerung der Einkommen der Produktionsfaktoren Kapital, Arbeit und Land. Private Haushalte sind somit zusätzlich zu steigenden Strompreisen mit einer Minderung ihrer Einkommen konfrontiert und tragen somit die Hauptlast bei der Umsetzung der Energiewende. Im internationalen Kontext erleidet die deutsche Wirtschaft einen Verlust an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit. Dieser wird durch den Rückgang sowohl der Importe, als auch der Exporte von Waren und Dienstleistungen sichtbar. Das Ziel geringerer CO2-Emissionen wird zwar erreicht, resultiert jedoch hauptsächlich auf der geringeren Wirtschaftskraft Deutschlands und weniger aus der Substitution fossiler durch erneuerbare Energieträger. Aus agrarischer Sicht ist die Energiewende Fluch und Segen zugleich. Der Ausbau der Biogasproduktion kompensiert durch höhere Erlöse für Strom und Substrate teilweise die steigenden Stromkosten. Gleichzeitig treiben jedoch umfangreiche Investitionen in den Ausbau von Biogasanlagen die Kapitalkosten in die Höhe. Insgesamt führen die negativen Auswirkungen höherer Kapital- und Stromkosten und die geringere Inlandsnachfrage nach Futter- und Nahrungsmitteln zu einem Rückgang des Produktionsniveaus und der Preise fast aller Agrarerzeugnisse. Die Betrachtung der Auswirkungen der Energiewende auf regionaler Ebene zeigt, dass Bundesländer mit einer energie- und kapitalintensiven Tierproduktion stärker betroffen sind, als Bundesländer mit dominierender Pflanzenproduktion. Im Hinblick auf die zukünftige Energiepolitik der Regierung wird auf Basis der Ergebnisse empfohlen, die Förderung erneuerbaren Energien vor dem Hintergrund der aktuell bestehenden Kraftwerksstrukturen im Strombereich zu modifizieren. Darüber sollte der technische Fortschritt der Stromerzeugung unterstützt und die Effizienz der Stromnutzung gefördert werden, um die gewünschte Umstrukturierung des Stromsektors und damit die Umsetzung der ökonomischen, ökologischen und sozialen Ziele der Energiewende zu erreichen. Mit Blick auf den Agrarsektor sollte die Biogasproduktion zur Stromerzeugung vorläufig noch aufrechterhalten werden, da diese erneuerbare Energiequelle kontinuierlich verfügbar ist. Aufgrund der steigenden Nachfrage nach Agrarrohstoffen zur Erzeugung von Nahrungsmitteln und andere Verwendungszwecke, ist ein weiterer Ausbau der Biogasproduktion jedoch nicht zu empfehlen. Der Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien zur Stromerzeugung sollte sich künftig auf Wind- und Solarenergie konzentrieren. Dies auch vor dem Hintergrund, dass Stromerzeugung auf Basis dieser Energieträger kostengünstiger und umweltfreundlicher ist. ; Germany's energy sector is currently characterised by a transformation process, in which the fossil and nuclear basis is increasingly replaced by renewable energy sources. A key driver of this energy transition was the implementation of the Energy Concept by the German government in 2010. Beside the substitution of traditional energy sources by renewables, the implementation of the so-called Energiewende includes further ecological, economic and social objectives. These include a) an improvement of environmental protection, b) a guarantee of reasonable energy prices for consumers, c) the maintenance of economic competitiveness and development and d) a reduction in the dependence of energy sources on imports. In order to determine the complex impacts of the implementation of the Energiewende on the German economy, this dissertation has two objectives. The first objective is the development of a single-country Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE model) for Germany, which allows for a monitoring of the Energiewende and policy recommendations. The second objective is the application of this model to analyse the impact of the implementation of the Energiewende in the electricity sector on the German economy, with particular emphasis on the agricultural sector. This thesis presents the development of the Static Applied General Equilibrium Model for Germany (STAGE_D) and the underlying database in the format of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The data and model development addresses the problem that the homogeneous product electricity is generated by different technologies with different cost structures. STAGE_D represents both - existing technologies (nuclear power, coal, gas, etc.) and new technologies (wind, solar and biomass) for electricity generation. The agricultural sector is presented by STAGE_D as a multi-product sector at regional level of the federal states. Thus, regional differences in Germany's agricultural production structures can be considered in the frame of a CGE analysis. STAGE_D also records carbon emissions caused by the use of energy resources by industry and households. In this thesis, the application of STAGE_D comprises the analysis of three scenarios. They examine i) the effects of nuclear phase-out, ii) the full implementation of the objectives of the Energiewende in the electricity sector and iii) the role of the conversion of biomass into electricity in the agricultural sector. The results show that the Energiewende in the electricity sector has a negative impact on the economic performance of Germany. This is reflected by a decline in Gross Domestic Product as a consequence of a drop in the production of the domestic economy in all scenarios. The introduction of new, more expensive technologies for electricity generation leads to higher electricity prices for industry and households. Therefore, production costs for the industry are increasing. Households have less income available for consumption of other goods and services. In addition, the decline in production of the industry leads to reduced incomes of the production factors capital, labour and land. Next to higher electricity prices, private households are therefore additionally confronted with a reduction of their incomes and thus have to carry the main burden in the realisation of the Energiewende. In the international context, the German economy is suffering a loss in competitiveness. This is reflected in the results by the decline in imports and exports of goods and services. Although the target of lower carbon emissions is achieved in all scenarios, this is primarily caused by Germany's lower economic performance and less by the substitution of fossil by renewable energy sources. From the agricultural perspective, the energy transition is both - a boon and a bane. The expansion of biogas production is partially compensating for higher electricity prices by increasing revenues for biomass-based electricity and substrates. But at the same time, extensive investments in the expansion of biogas plants are driving up the cost of capital. Overall, the negative effects of higher capital and electricity costs and lower domestic demand for food and feed cause a decline in production and prices for almost all agricultural products. The consideration of the impact of the Energiewende at regional level shows that federal states with energy- and capital-intensive animal production are more affected than federal states with dominant plant production. With regard to the future energy policy of the government, it is recommended, on the basis of the results, to modify the support for renewable energies against the background of the currently existing power plant structures in the electricity sector. In addition, technological progress in electricity generation and the efficiency of electricity use should be supported in order to achieve the required restructuring of the electricity sector and thus the implementation of the economic, ecological and social objectives of the Energiewende. With regard to the agricultural sector, biogas production for electricity generation should be maintained meanwhile because this renewable energy source is continually available compared to solar and wind. Against the background of the increasing demand of agricultural commodities for food and other purposes, a further expansion of biogas production is not recommended. The expansion of renewable energies for electricity generation in the future should focus on wind and solar energy. This also with regard to the fact that electricity generation on the basis of these energy sources is more cost-effective and ecological.
BACKGROUND Tobacco smoking is the cause of many preventable diseases and premature deaths in the UK and around the world. It poses enormous health- and non-health-related costs to the affected individuals, employers, and the society at large. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that, globally, smoking causes over US$500 billion in economic damage each year. OBJECTIVES This paper examines global and UK evidence on the economic impact of smoking prevalence and evaluates the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of smoking cessation measures. STUDY SELECTION Search methods We used two major health care/economic research databases, namely PubMed and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) database that contains the British National Health Service (NHS) Economic Evaluation Database; Cochrane Library of systematic reviews in health care and health policy; and other health-care-related bibliographic sources. We also performed hand searching of relevant articles, health reports, and white papers issued by government bodies, international health organizations, and health intervention campaign agencies. Selection criteria The paper includes cost-effectiveness studies from medical journals, health reports, and white papers published between 1992 and July 2014, but included only eight relevant studies before 1992. Most of the papers reviewed reported outcomes on smoking prevalence, as well as the direct and indirect costs of smoking and the costs and benefits of smoking cessation interventions. We excluded papers that merely described the effectiveness of an intervention without including economic or cost considerations. We also excluded papers that combine smoking cessation with the reduction in the risk of other diseases. Data collection and analysis The included studies were assessed against criteria indicated in the Cochrane Reviewers Handbook version 5.0.0. Outcomes assessed in the review Primary outcomes of the selected studies are smoking prevalence, direct and indirect costs of smoking, and the costs and benefits of smoking cessation interventions (eg, "cost per quitter", "cost per life year saved", "cost per quality-adjusted life year gained," "present value" or "net benefits" from smoking cessation, and "cost savings" from personal health care expenditure). MAIN RESULTS The main findings of this study are as follows: The costs of smoking can be classified into direct, indirect, and intangible costs. About 15% of the aggregate health care expenditure in high-income countries can be attributed to smoking. In the US, the proportion of health care expenditure attributable to smoking ranges between 6% and 18% across different states. In the UK, the direct costs of smoking to the NHS have been estimated at between £2.7 billion and £5.2 billion, which is equivalent to around 5% of the total NHS budget each year. The economic burden of smoking estimated in terms of GDP reveals that smoking accounts for approximately 0.7% of China's GDP and approximately 1% of US GDP. As part of the indirect (non-health-related) costs of smoking, the total productivity losses caused by smoking each year in the US have been estimated at US$151 billion. The costs of smoking notwithstanding, it produces some potential economic benefits. The economic activities generated from the production and consumption of tobacco provides economic stimulus. It also produces huge tax revenues for most governments, especially in high-income countries, as well as employment in the tobacco industry. Income from the tobacco industry accounts for up to 7.4% of centrally collected government revenue in China. Smoking also yields cost savings in pension payments from the premature death of smokers. Smoking cessation measures could range from pharmacological treatment interventions to policy-based measures, community-based interventions, telecoms, media, and technology (TMT)-based interventions, school-based interventions, and workplace interventions. The cost per life year saved from the use of pharmacological treatment interventions ranged between US$128 and US$1,450 and up to US$4,400 per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved. The use of pharmacotherapies such as varenicline, NRT, and Bupropion, when combined with GP counseling or other behavioral treatment interventions (such as proactive telephone counseling and Web-based delivery), is both clinically effective and cost effective to primary health care providers. Price-based policy measures such as increase in tobacco taxes are unarguably the most effective means of reducing the consumption of tobacco. A 10% tax-induced cigarette price increase anywhere in the world reduces smoking prevalence by between 4% and 8%. Net public benefits from tobacco tax, however, remain positive only when tax rates are between 42.9% and 91.1%. The cost effectiveness ratio of implementing non-price-based smoking cessation legislations (such as smoking restrictions in work places, public places, bans on tobacco advertisement, and raising the legal age of smokers) range from US$2 to US$112 per life year gained (LYG) while reducing smoking prevalence by up to 30%–82% in the long term (over a 50-year period). Smoking cessation classes are known to be most effective among community-based measures, as they could lead to a quit rate of up to 35%, but they usually incur higher costs than other measures such as self-help quit-smoking kits. On average, community pharmacist-based smoking cessation programs yield cost savings to the health system of between US$500 and US$614 per LYG. Advertising media, telecommunications, and other technology-based interventions (such as TV, radio, print, telephone, the Internet, PC, and other electronic media) usually have positive synergistic effects in reducing smoking prevalence especially when combined to deliver smoking cessation messages and counseling support. However, the outcomes on the cost effectiveness of TMT-based measures have been inconsistent, and this made it difficult to attribute results to specific media. The differences in reported cost effectiveness may be partly attributed to varying methodological approaches including varying parametric inputs, differences in national contexts, differences in advertising campaigns tested on different media, and disparate levels of resourcing between campaigns. Due to its universal reach and low implementation costs, online campaign appears to be substantially more cost effective than other media, though it may not be as effective in reducing smoking prevalence. School-based smoking prevalence programs tend to reduce short-term smoking prevalence by between 30% and 70%. Total intervention costs could range from US$16,400 to US$580,000 depending on the scale and scope of intervention. The cost effectiveness of school-based programs show that one could expect a saving of approximately between US$2,000 and US$20,000 per QALY saved due to averted smoking after 2–4 years of follow-up. Workplace-based interventions could represent a sound economic investment to both employers and the society at large, achieving a benefit–cost ratio of up to 8.75 and generating 12-month employer cost savings of between $150 and $540 per nonsmoking employee. Implementing smoke-free workplaces would also produce myriads of new quitters and reduce the amount of cigarette consumption, leading to cost savings in direct medical costs to primary health care providers. Workplace interventions are, however, likely to yield far greater economic benefits over the long term, as reduced prevalence will lead to a healthier and more productive workforce. CONCLUSIONS We conclude that the direct costs and externalities to society of smoking far outweigh any benefits that might be accruable at least when considered from the perspective of socially desirable outcomes (ie, in terms of a healthy population and a productive workforce). There are enormous differences in the application and economic measurement of smoking cessation measures across various types of interventions, methodologies, countries, economic settings, and health care systems, and these may have affected the comparability of the results of the studies reviewed. However, on the balance of probabilities, most of the cessation measures reviewed have not only proved effective but also cost effective in delivering the much desired cost savings and net gains to individuals and primary health care providers.
Background: Tobacco smoking is the cause of many preventable diseases and premature deaths in the UK and around the world. It poses enormous health- and non-health-related costs to the affected individuals, employers, and the society at large. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that, globally, smoking causes over US$500 billion in economic damage each year. Objectives: This paper examines global and UK evidence on the economic impact of smoking prevalence and evaluates the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of smoking cessation measures. Study selection Search methods: We used two major health care/economic research databases, namely PubMed and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) database that contains the British National Health Service (NHS) Economic Evaluation Database; Cochrane Library of systematic reviews in health care and health policy; and other health-care-related bibliographic sources. We also performed hand searching of relevant articles, health reports, and white papers issued by government bodies, international health organizations, and health intervention campaign agencies. Selection criteria: The paper includes cost-effectiveness studies from medical journals, health reports, and white papers published between 1992 and July 2014, but included only eight relevant studies before 1992. Most of the papers reviewed reported outcomes on smoking prevalence, as well as the direct and indirect costs of smoking and the costs and benefits of smoking cessation interventions. We excluded papers that merely described the effectiveness of an intervention without including economic or cost considerations. We also excluded papers that combine smoking cessation with the reduction in the risk of other diseases. Data collection and analysis: The included studies were assessed against criteria indicated in the Cochrane Reviewers Handbook version 5.0.0. Outcomes assessed in the review: Primary outcomes of the selected studies are smoking prevalence, direct and indirect costs of smoking, and the costs and benefits of smoking cessation interventions (eg, "cost per quitter", "cost per life year saved", "cost per quality-adjusted life year gained," "present value" or "net benefits" from smoking cessation, and "cost savings" from personal health care expenditure). Main results: The main findings of this study are as follows: 1. The costs of smoking can be classified into direct, indirect, and intangible costs. About 15% of the aggregate health care expenditure in high-income countries can be attributed to smoking. In the US, the proportion of health care expenditure attributable to smoking ranges between 6% and 18% across different states. In the UK, the direct costs of smoking to the NHS have been estimated at between £2.7 billion and £5.2 billion, which is equivalent to around 5% of the total NHS budget each year. The economic burden of smoking estimated in terms of GDP reveals that smoking accounts for approximately 0.7% of China's GDP and approximately 1% of US GDP. As part of the indirect (non-health-related) costs of smoking, the total productivity losses caused by smoking each year in the US have been estimated at US$151 billion. 2.The costs of smoking notwithstanding, it produces some potential economic benefits. The economic activities generated from the production and consumption of tobacco provides economic stimulus. It also produces huge tax revenues for most governments, especially in high-income countries, as well as employment in the tobacco industry. Income from the tobacco industry accounts for up to 7.4% of centrally collected government revenue in China. Smoking also yields cost savings in pension payments from the premature death of smokers. 3. Smoking cessation measures could range from pharmacological treatment interventions to policy-based measures, community-based interventions, telecoms, media, and technology (TMT)-based interventions, school-based interventions, and workplace interventions. 4. The cost per life year saved from the use of pharmacological treatment interventions ranged between US$128 and US$1,450 and up to US$4,400 per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved. The use of pharmacotherapies such as varenicline, NRT, and Bupropion, when combined with GP counseling or other behavioral treatment interventions (such as proactive telephone counseling and Web-based delivery), is both clinically effective and cost effective to primary health care providers. 5. Price-based policy measures such as increase in tobacco taxes are unarguably the most effective means of reducing the consumption of tobacco. A 10% tax-induced cigarette price increase anywhere in the world reduces smoking prevalence by between 4% and 8%. Net public benefits from tobacco tax, however, remain positive only when tax rates are between 42.9% and 91.1%. The cost effectiveness ratio of implementing non-price-based smoking cessation legislations (such as smoking restrictions in work places, public places, bans on tobacco advertisement, and raising the legal age of smokers) range from US$2 to US$112 per life year gained (LYG) while reducing smoking prevalence by up to 30%–82% in the long term (over a 50-year period). 6. Smoking cessation classes are known to be most effective among community-based measures, as they could lead to a quit rate of up to 35%, but they usually incur higher costs than other measures such as self-help quit-smoking kits. On average, community pharmacist-based smoking cessation programs yield cost savings to the health system of between US$500 and US$614 per LYG. 7. Advertising media, telecommunications, and other technology-based interventions (such as TV, radio, print, telephone, the Internet, PC, and other electronic media) usually have positive synergistic effects in reducing smoking prevalence especially when combined to deliver smoking cessation messages and counseling support. However, the outcomes on the cost effectiveness of TMT-based measures have been inconsistent, and this made it difficult to attribute results to specific media. The differences in reported cost effectiveness may be partly attributed to varying methodological approaches including varying parametric inputs, differences in national contexts, differences in advertising campaigns tested on different media, and disparate levels of resourcing between campaigns. Due to its universal reach and low implementation costs, online campaign appears to be substantially more cost effective than other media, though it may not be as effective in reducing smoking prevalence. 8. School-based smoking prevalence programs tend to reduce short-term smoking prevalence by between 30% and 70%. Total intervention costs could range from US$16,400 to US$580,000 depending on the scale and scope of intervention. The cost effectiveness of school-based programs show that one could expect a saving of approximately between US$2,000 and US$20,000 per QALY saved due to averted smoking after 2–4 years of follow-up. 9. Workplace-based interventions could represent a sound economic investment to both employers and the society at large, achieving a benefit–cost ratio of up to 8.75 and generating 12-month employer cost savings of between $150 and $540 per nonsmoking employee. Implementing smoke-free workplaces would also produce myriads of new quitters and reduce the amount of cigarette consumption, leading to cost savings in direct medical costs to primary health care providers. Workplace interventions are, however, likely to yield far greater economic benefits over the long term, as reduced prevalence will lead to a healthier and more productive workforce. Conclusions: We conclude that the direct costs and externalities to society of smoking far outweigh any benefits that might be accruable at least when considered from the perspective of socially desirable outcomes (ie, in terms of a healthy population and a productive workforce). There are enormous differences in the application and economic measurement of smoking cessation measures across various types of interventions, methodologies, countries, economic settings, and health care systems, and these may have affected the comparability of the results of the studies reviewed. However, on the balance of probabilities, most of the cessation measures reviewed have not only proved effective but also cost effective in delivering the much desired cost savings and net gains to individuals and primary health care providers.
La población mundial, que cuenta dos mil millones de habitantes alrededor del año 1950, ha crecido a un ritmo casi exponencial en las décadas siguientes hasta 4 mil millones y 5,3 en 1990 (Naciones Unidas - Departamento de Asuntos Económicos y Sociales, 2010). Sin duda un gran aumento tanto en términos absolutos cuanto relativos. Según las estimaciones de las Naciones Unidas, la población mundial se estima que alcanzará los ocho millones y medio de 2025. Estas tasas de crecimiento se producen, obviamente, tanto en Europa, donde la población ha crecido de 550 millones en 1950 a 750 millones en 2010, y en Italia, donde en el período 1861 a 2008 hubo un aumento de la población de 22 millones de habitantes a casi 60 millones (fuente: ISTAT, 2010). La población ha crecido, sin embargo, a tasas más altas en los países en desarrollo, con una tendencia a la constante en los países industrializados en las últimas décadas. Dicha población mundial intenso tiene consecuencias directas sobre el territorio urbano, mientras que lleva a una extensión de las actuales áreas urbanas menores y pequeñas ciudades. Todo esto, cada vez más, dar lugar a problemas de gestión y uso del suelo, produciendo un crecimiento del componente de la vulnerabilidad en la ecuación de riesgo. Crecimiento de la población no justifica un aumento de las condiciones hidrogeológicas de la inestabilidad. Si es así, ya que la población se ha convertido en firme en los últimos años, al menos en la mayoría de los países industrializados, no hay que hacer frente a riesgos cada vez mayor. En cambio, el modelo de desarrollo económico, basado principalmente en redes e infraestructuras, así como los asentamientos, por supuesto, produce un doble efecto: un aumento de los activos expuestos a la amenaza, una presión sobre el territorio, capaz de hacer la activación de los fenómenos peligrosos más frecuentes. Los fenómenos naturales también tienen un impacto en el marco socio-económico, ya que son responsables de la pérdida de bienes y servicios y, en ocasiones, una pérdida en términos de vidas humanas. En tal situación, la vulnerabilidad de la zona está relacionado con el desarrollo de su sistema de infraestructura social, civil y urbano. Este concepto se expresa claramente en la declaración "Los desastres ocurren cuando los riesgos se encontra con la vulnerabilidad" (Wisner et al., 2004). Esto nos lleva a considerar los desastres naturales como los fenómenos sociales reales. Cuando se habla de riesgo geomorfologicos y de políticas ambientales, uno de los pioneros es, sin duda, Earl E. Brabb, que ya en 1991 en un artículo titulado "El problema de movimientos de ladera del mundo", sostuvo que los deslizamientos son un problema mundial que cientos causa de muertes y miles de millones de dólares de daño cada año en todo el mundo. Los poblemas geomorfológicos son y serán un tema importante y un requisito fundamental del conocimiento para la política de toma de decisiones. A pesar de 20 años han pasado desde que el trabajo Brabb, la situación no parece haber cambiado. No son aún insuficientes los procedimientos de todo el mundo aunque sólo sea compartida que permite evaluar la calidad y precisión de un inventario de deslizamientos o la forma de clasificar en términos de susceptibilidad a los deslizamientos de un área y para evaluar cuantitativa y cualitativamente el rendimiento predictivo. Las imágenes y escenas de devastación, destrucción y muerte que ocurren cada año, hacen que el problema de los riesgos geomorfológicos en un problema social. ¿Quien es el responsable? Seguimos construyendo, incluso en lugares que no son adecuados para la construcción. Tenemos que admitir por lo menos una doble responsabilidad. Si bien es cierto que los acontecimientos que causar un derrumbe apenas son "previsibles", por el contrario sí podemos identificar y predecir donde estos fenómenos se producen con mayor capacidad destructiva, produciendo más daños y reducir al mínimo la vulnerabilidad. Por lo tanto, si no es posible evitar, ya que no es posible predecir, la palabra clave debe ser "la prevención". Cada vez deslizamientos de tierra u otros eventos con características destructivas y letales, que a menudo se supone y se define como "impredecible", nos ofrece con el escenario de las víctimas, los heridos y desaparecidos, el público se estremece y recuerda la vulnerabilidad de los bienes de la comunidad y direciona la discusión sobre el tema de prevención de los desastres naturales o por lo menos tratar de minimizar las consecuencias trágicas que lo acompañan. La ola emocional que sigue a la fase de emergencia se produce entre las llamadas a "enrollar las mangas" a una "cultura de prevención" que "nunca vuelva a suceder", e induce a los legisladores y los técnicos para intervenir con una variedad de medidas urgentes de mitigación y obras y de intervención inmediata, tal vez proponiendo también las regulaciones y leyes dirigidas a "evitar otro desastre similar". Hoy Saponara, ayer Génova, el día antes Giampilieri y San Fratello y así sucesivamente durante décadas: Salerno (1954) con 318 víctimas, 250 heridos y sin hogar cerca de 5.500, y el Longarone y el desastre de Vajont (1963) con cerca de 2.000 muertes de Agrigento, (1966), Valtellina (1987) 53 muertes y 4.000 millones de liras de los daños, el deslizamiento de tierra en el Val di Stava de julio de 1985 (269 muertos), las corrientes rápidas del 5 de mayo de 1998 y Sarno y Quindici y otras áreas de la región Campania, con 153 muertes, Maierato (2010), son algunos de los eventos más importantes que lleva a más de 4.000 las muertes causadas por movimientos gravitativos en medio siglo, un promedio de 4 muertes por mes, además de un daño económico incalculable. Pero cada día hay una lista de los deslizamientos de tierra, carreteras y puentes bajando, a pesar de que pasa desapercibido. A falta de una cultura de prevención y un aumento de la cultura de emergencia en su lugar. Y la protección civil se ve ahora como la única ancla de salvación y la asistencia de los municipios y la población involucrada. Italia es un País que se desmorona debido a la negligencia del hombre y a la falta de prevención. Hay 5,596 sobre 8,101 municipios en riesgo hidrogeológico, el 84% de los centros de población se define en riesgo. Esto sin duda demuestra que las construcciones se construyeron cuando no se podia. De estos municipios, 1.700 (alrededor del 21%) están en riesgo de deslizamientos, 1.285 (casi el 16%) en riesgo de inundación y 2.596 (32%) se encuentran en una combinación de deslizamientos de tierra y riesgo de inundación. El área total clasificada como de alto riesgo asciende a 36.551 km2 (7,1% del total nacional) dividido en km2 de áreas de deslizamientos de tierra y 7.791 km2 de áreas inundadas 13.760. Estas cifras ponen de relieve la inestabilidad hidrogeológica con el que cada región debe enfrentar, tarde o temprano, contra la cual el flujo de millones de euros, a menudo sólo le prometió, no servirá de mucho para la estabilización y obras de medida de seguridad. El informe de Legambiente revela que los municipios son la punta de lanza de una evidente debilidad de nuestro territorio. No hay una única manera de preparar los mapas de susceptibilidad, como lo demuestra la enorme cantidad de artículos científicos producidos incluso durante la última década, y lo mismo es cierto en cuanto a la zonificación de los peligros y los riesgos involucrados, todavía sigue siendo un problema sin resolver en gran medida (Carrara et al., 2009). La contribución de este trabajo las siguientes fases de un estudio con el fin de definir la estructura de la sensibilidad, los riesgos y peligros de un área: 1. Construcción de la base de datos: en este trabajo las diferentes técnicas y métodos de detección de deslizamiento de tierra y delimitación se comparan directamente (trabajo de campo) e indirectamente (fotografías aéreas, software de visualización remota del territorio) y su posterior despliegue en un sistema GIS. 2 Elección y definición de la escala de análisis: De hecho, uno de los problemas más actuales de la proposición se relaciona con los métodos de evaluación de susceptibilidad a escala múltiple. 3 Unidades cartográficas: las diferentes unidades se utilizan para la cartografía y zonificación del territorio, cuya previsión de resultados se comparan con el fin de ser capaces de identificar las unidades de la asignación básica más adecuada para la planificación y para fines de defensa civil, teniendo en cuenta la exactitud científica de que la modelo debe soportar. 4 Elección de los factores control: en el trabajo, es la posibilidad de identificar el conjunto más probable de los factores que se consideran relacionados directamente o indirectamente a la inestabilidad de la ladera. Se proponen procedimientos de prueba y seleccionar el conjunto de posibles factores de control, así como la construcción de modelos específicos para cada tipo de deslizamientos. 5 Construcción de modelos: como para la construcción de un modelo geo-estadístico, las soluciones se comparan diferentes y el modelo de presentación de los mismos resultados y la objetividad que se elija, teniendo en cuenta que las necesidades de una implementación más bajo en términos de costo y tiempo. 6 Validación: los modelos están sujetos a diferentes técnicas de validación, que luego se comparan entre ellos. 7 Exportación espacial de un modelo de susceptibilidad: este es un ensayo para definir y validar los términos de susceptibilidad a los deslizamientos de una amplia zona en los gustos de cientos o miles de kilómetros cuadrados, en base a los estudios de detalle de algunos sectores que lo representan. Al igual que muchos otros autores, con el propósito de este trabajo es hacer una contribución a la comunidad científica, tratando de ofrecer una modesta contribución en la solución de algunos problemas en este campo a través de experimentos y modelos realizados en una variedad de contextos y comparar los resultados entre ellos. En este sentido, unas pruebas se llevaron a cabo en algunas áreas, previamente seleccionadas, será probado y verificado el resultado de algunos de los procedimientos en los años de investigación doctoral. A continuación, un resumen de los resultados vendrán de estas pruebas experimentales TEST 1a: TUMMARRANO river basin: Model Exportation En el marco de un estudio de la susceptibilidad de deslizamientos regional en el sur de Sicilia, una prueba se ha realizado en la cuenca del río Tumarrano (unos 80 km2) tiene como objetivo caracterizar las condiciones de su susceptibilidad movimientos de ladera mediante la exportación de un modelo, definido y entrenado en el interior un número limitado (unos 20 km2) representativas del sector ("el área de origen''). Además, la posibilidad de explotar software de Google Earth y el banco de datos de fotos para producir imágenes de los archivos deslizamiento de tierra ha sido comprobado. El modelo de susceptibilidad se define, de acuerdo con un enfoque multifactorial basadas en el análisis condicional, con unidades únicas condiciones (UCUs), los cuales fueron obtenidos mediante la combinación de cuatro factores seleccionados control: litología afloramiento, la pendiente, la curvatura del plan y el índice de humedad topográfica. La capacidad de predicción del modelo de exportación, formado con 206 deslizamientos de tierra, se compara con la estimada para toda el área estudiada, mediante el uso de un archivo completo de deslizamiento de tierra (703 deslizamientos de tierra), para ver hasta qué punto el mayor tiempo/dinero necesario se tienen en cuenta los costos para. TEST 1b. Tummarrano river basin: modelo de susceptibilidad basado en la Forward logistic regression La regresión logística con pasòs hacia adelante, nos ha permitido obtener un modelo de susceptibilidad por los flujos de tierra en la cuenca del río Tumarrano, que se definió mediante el modelado de las relaciones estadísticas entre un archivo de eventos 760 y un conjunto de 20 variables predictoras. Para cada movimiento del inventario, un punto de identificación de deslizamientos (LIP) se produce de forma automática, como corresponde al punto más alto a lo largo de la frontera de los polígonos de deslizamientos de tierra. Los modelos equilibrados (760 stable/760 inestable) se presentaron a adelante el procedimiento de regresión logística. Una estrategia de construcción del modelo se aplicó para ampliar la zona considerada en la preparación del modelo y para comprobar la sensibilidad de los modelos de regresión con respecto a los lugares específicos de las células se considera estable. Un conjunto de dieciséis modelos se preparó de forma aleatoria extraer los subconjuntos diferentes céldas estables. Los modelos fueron sometidos a regresión logística y validado. Los resultados mostraron que las tasas de error satisfactoria y estable (0,236 en promedio, con una desviación estándar de 0,007) y AUC (0.839, para la formación, y 0.817, para conjuntos de datos de prueba). Como en relación a los predictores, la pendiente en el barrio de las células y la curvatura topográfica de gran perfil y plan local-fueron seleccionados de forma sistemática. Litología arcillosa afloramiento, drenajes midslope, crestas locales y midslope y los accidentes geográficos cañones eran también muy frecuentes (de 8 a 15 veces) en los modelos de la selección hacia adelante. La estrategia de construcción del modelo nos ha permitido producir un modelo de flujo de tierra realizando la susceptibilidad, cuyo modelo de ajuste, la predicción de la habilidad y solidez se estimaron sobre la base de los procedimientos de validación. Test 2. Imera river basin: modelo de susceptibilidad por flujo de tierra basado en las unidades de ladera. Un mapa de susceptibilidad de un área, que es representativa en términos de marco geológico y los fenómenos de inestabilidad de ladera de grandes sectores de los Apeninos de Sicilia, fue producida usando unidades de ladera y un modelo multiparamétrico univariado. La zona de estudio, que se extiende por aproximadamente 90 km2, fue dividida en 774 unidades de la pendiente, cuya ocurrencia esperada avalancha se estimó un promedio de siete valores de vulnerabilidad, determinado para el control de los factores seleccionados: litología, pendiente media del gradiente, SPI en el pie, el índice de humedad topográfica y la curvatura del perfil, y el rango de altitud. Cada uno de los reconocidos 490 deslizamientos de tierra estuvo representada por su punto de centro de gravedad. Sobre la base de análisis condicional, la función de la susceptibilidad aquí adoptada es la densidad, calculado para cada clase. Modelos univariante fueron preparados para cada uno de los factores que controlan, y su rendimiento predictivo se estimó por curvas de tipos de predicción y la relación de efectividad aplicada a la categorías de vulnerabilidad. Este procedimiento nos permitió discriminar entre factores efectivos y no efectivos, de modo que sólo la primera se combinó posteriormente en un modelo multiparamétrico, que fue utilizada para producir el mapa de susceptibilidad final. la validación de este último mapa nos permite comprobar el rendimiento y la fiabilidad de la predicción modelo. Los principales factores reguladores resultaron: la litología y, subordinadamente, el SPI a el pies de la unidad, y tambien el gradiente medio de la pendiente, la curvatura del perfil, y el índice de humedad topográfica dieron resultados satisfactorios. ; The World population, which counted two billion inhabitants around 1950, has grown at an almost exponential rate in the following decades up to four billion in 1980 and 5,3 in 1990 (United Nations – Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2010). Definitely a high increase both in absolute and relative terms. According to estimates by the United Nations, the World population is estimated to reach eight billion and a half around 2025 (Chart 1.1), and then it will become steady around ten billion in 2050 because of the expected decline in fertility. These growing rates occur, obviously, both in Europe, where population has grown from 550 million in 1950 to 750 million in 2010, and in Italy, where in the period from 1861 to 2008 there was a surge in population from 22 million inhabitants to almost 60 million, (source: ISTAT, 2010). The population has grown, however, at higher rates in developing Countries (Fig. 1.1), with a tendency to become steady in industrialized Countries in the last decades. Such an intense world population has direct consequences on urban territory while leading to a spread of current minor urban areas and small towns. All this will, increasingly, result in management and land use problems, producing a growth of the vulnerability component in the risk equation. Population growth alone does not justify an increase of hydro-geological conditions of instability. If so, since the population has become steady in recent years, at least in most industrialized countries, we should not face increasing risks. Instead, the economic development model, largely based on networks and infrastructures, as well as settlements of course, produces a double effect: an increase of assets exposed to threat; a stress on the territory, able to make the activation of hazardous phenomena more frequently. It is however true that recent disasters with great loss of lives (i.e., Sarno Giampilieri, Aulla, Genova and Saponara) are actually the results of the response (letting nature take its course) to the changes in territorial asset occurred after the war. Another cause may be found in environmental changes: when the stress regime in a region changes (such as extraordinary rainfall intensity), the response is obviously new for both sides/slopes and the population. The WWF notes that from 1956 to 2001, urbanized areas in Italy have increased by 500 times and it is estimated that from 1990 to 2005 we have transformed 3.5 million hectares of land. The problem of interaction between humans and the natural environment is a very complex and diversified issue, not often approached in a systematic way, also because of the severe limitations of sources to be invested on research on a medium and long-term, for a better and effective knowledge of the environment, primarily on measures aimed at reducing risk (Plattner, 2005). Natural phenomena also have an impact within the social-economic framework as they are responsible for the loss of goods and services, and sometimes, a loss in terms of lives. In such a situation, the vulnerability of the area is related to the development of its social, civil, and urban infrastructural system. This concept is well expressed in the statement "disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability" (Wisner et al., 2004). This leads us to consider natural disasters as real social phenomena. This condition is strongly valid especially with regard to landslides (Brabb and Harrod, 1989; Brabb, 1991). Since economic problems common to all countries do not allow either to invest in research projects on a medium and long-term or the stabilization of structures or areas on a large-scale, a new philosophy of environmental policy opens up for all active political and administrative subjects that should govern the use and exploitation of the territory. For this reason, the scientific community is engaged in a continuous search for methods and techniques to estimate the degree of real and potential instability, using the minimum amount of equipment and possible economic resources. Usually there is a substantial difficulty in identifying the most reliable procedures, that allow to approach this matter in a non-traditional manner based on modeling and investigative techniques built on the exchange of experiences between experts and conducting studies and experiments on all continents, and showing different strategies and possible technical combinations depending on the type and/or the number and complexity of the investigation, producing susceptibility, hazard and risk maps, used as the basis for decision-making processes in land management. In this framework, further efforts are needed in trying to make the different methods more objective and shared by all in order to be simple and reproducible, and most of all in transferring the knowledge gained in laws that underpin territorial planning, building regulations, and in civil defense plans (Guzzetti, 2006). When discussing about landslides and environmental policies, one of the pioneers is undoubtedly Earl E. Brabb, who already in 1991 in a paper entitled "The World Landslide Problem", sustained that landslides are a worldwide problem that cause hundreds of deaths and billions of dollars of damage every year all over the world. The same added that these losses can be reduced if the problem is identified and acknowledged in time, but many countries are simply equipped with maps showing where landslides produced problems in the past and they have even less susceptibility maps that could allow policy makers control land use. Landslides, adds Brabb, are generally more predictable and controllable than other natural events of catastrophic nature such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and storms, but despite this, few countries have taken advantage of this knowledge to reduce landslide hazard. Geomorphological problems are and will be an important issue and a fundamental requirement of knowledge for the politics of decision-making. Although 20 years have gone by since Brabb's work, the situation does not seem to have changed. There are still insufficient globally shared procedures even just allowing to assess the quality and accuracy of a landslide inventory or how to classify in terms of landslide susceptibility of an area and to evaluate quantitatively and qualitatively predictive performance. 1.2 Basic concepts One of the most obvious effects of rapid territory development in the past decades is the increasing impact that natural disasters have on man and his activities. Institutions are therefore committed to investing their resources in both the implementation of structural interventions to mitigate the risk as well as implementation of early warning systems and defining guidelines for land management; the latter activities allow, in fact, to avoid or minimize damage to persons and property, produced by natural phenomena, without necessarily investing in expensive resources and long structural interventions. The term "risk" is used in relation to the various components of the social and territorial fabric, as an expression of the expected consequences in the assets as a result of this disastrous phenomenon of assigned intensity at a given time interval. Within the guidelines for the preparation of prevention and management plans in terms of geological risk of the Sicilian Civil Protection Service (Regional Hydro-geological and Environmental Risks department), the term Hydro-geological Risk means the effect on different parts of the territory led by natural disasters such as landslides (geomorphological risk) and floods (hydraulic risks) triggered by events related to climate and its changes. Two main components contribute to the definition of risk: territorial hazard (geomorphological and hydraulic) and vulnerability. The latter depends on both the physical resistance of structures or assets exposed to the threat and the so-called vulnerability of social organization, which is linked, in fact, to the capacity of disaster prevention and management that a community has developed prior to the same disaster. The propensity of a territory to be affected by new landslides, the degree of hazard or risk that characterizes it, are usually expressed with the help of a map in which the area is divided into different zones according to the different values that qualify it. In this mapping, the territory is zoned or divided into homogeneous zones or user-defined fields/areas, whose ranking is defined according to their real or potential degree of landslide hazard (Varnes, 1984). Over the decades, many research groups and national and international commissions have tried to provide precise definitions, trying to reduce the existing confusion of terms in the management of natural hazards. In this section, some basic concepts are expressed as well as the terminology that will be used in the thesis below. Landslide events that develop in a given area involve a large number of environmental variables, to determine undoubted difficulties in identifying a suitable action of management, control and planning. In order to do so, understanding the problem without having a clear conceptual framework and method to be used may not be sufficient. The "forecast" of the phenomena and therefore the modeling phase is always required to designated public administration bodies and territorial control, carried out by the creation of digital simulation models which become crucial at the time when decisions must be taken/made. The creation of maps indicating the different vocation planning of an area, based for example on landslide hazard maps, not only allows you to compose the scene of the incident consequences of a given failure, but also to react under emergency, if magnitude, area, and associated potential damage are known. Planning is a subject which studies and regulates the processes of local governance and to evaluate the resulting dynamics of evolution and development. The principles guiding the choice of planning require development policies coherent with the principles of environmental protection and sustainability in an effort to control the excessive human presence, able to transform irreversibly natural systems and preserve the quality of life for future generations. Information, territorial knowledge and assessment of its natural predisposition and vulnerability are the basis of planning. These forms of knowledge and the use and application of the best technologies available to facilitate information processing and optimization of procedures for evaluation and zoning of the territory, will yield the best design solutions to achieve the desired objectives. Planning is aimed to government land use and management of spatial information, and is achieved by regulating the area according to different uses, which should be awarded taking into account the natural predispositions. Planning activities can affect a large portion of territory, in other words include a supra-municipal area or one that does not match with administrative boundaries (e.g. Provincial Territorial Coordination Plan, Hydro-geological Plan) or urban (e.g. General Regulation Plan). The geological, geomorphological, hydro-geological and seismic component should be placed at the base of the strategic development of the territory. In national legislation, water management is understood both as a natural resource but also as an element of risk, and has been regulated at the watershed level since the nineties (national framework law 183/89 on soil protection). This allow us to overcome divisions and inconsistencies produced by the adoption of targeted areas having only administrative boundaries that, therefore, do not take into account natural dynamics. The zoning of landslide hazard area is considered the most effective level of knowledge for territorial planning and territorial governance purposes. A map showing portions of an area classified as "hazardous" is of great importance due to the fact that these areas are subject to limitations and constraints that also affect the usability or simply the economic value. 1.2.1 Landslides and soil protection Italy, besides having a territory particularly prone to heavily collapse, has a highly populated territory with a density of 189 inhabitants per km2, much higher than France (114 inhabitants/km2) and Spain (89 inhabitants/km2), in Lombardy and Campania respectively, the density changes to 379 and 420 inhabitants per km2. As clear from the Report on landslides in Italy (National Geological Survey, 2007), commissioned by the ISPRA (National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research), in the last 50 years almost 500 thousand landslides have been recognized and recorded for an area of about 20 thousand km2, corresponding to 6.6% of the entire national territory. These data should be updated. As indicated by the last study conducted by the Ministry of the Environment (2010), 9.8% of the national area is to be ranked highly hydro-geological critical and 6.633 municipalities are involved, representing 81.9 percent of the national territory. This value, according to a report EURISPES ( Report Italy, 2010) is "largely underestimated", therefore agreeing that "a reliable estimate is made up of about 2 million phenomena and consequently the percentage of the Italian territory subject to ongoing phenomena is more than 20%." The Ministry of Environment, through the work for the realization of development plans undertaken by the hydrogeological Basin Authority, estimated a funding requirement of almost 40 billion euros to hydro-geologically secure the entire country, and 4.1 billion for more urgent works. Undoubtedly, the amounts are considerably high, but it is enough to consider that almost 21 billion euros were spent just to stanch the damages by hydro-geological disasters occurred in the decade 1994-2004. 1.3 Aims and scientific contribution There is no single way to prepare susceptibility maps, as evidenced by the enormous amount of scientific papers produced even during the last decade, and the same is true as for the zoning of the hazard and risk involved, still remaining a largely unsolved problem (Carrara et al., 2009). The contribution of this paper the following phases of a study in order to define the susceptibility structure, hazard and risk of an area. 1 Construction of the landslide database: in this work different techniques and methods of landslide detection and delimitation are compared, directly (field work) and indirectly (aerial photographs, remote viewing software of the territory) and their subsequent deployment in a GIS system. 2 Choice and definition of the analysis scale: the problem of scale models of susceptibility is approached. In fact, one of the most actual problems of the proposition is related to approaches to multi-scale susceptibility evaluation. 3 Mapping units: different units are used for mapping and zoning of the territory, whose foresight results are compared in order to be able to identify the basic mapping units most suitable for planning and for civil defense purposes, taking into account the scientific accuracy that the model must bear. 4 Choice of controlling factors: during the work, it is the possible to identify the most probable set of factors considered to be directly or indirectly related to the instability of the slope. Procedures for testing and selecting the set of possible controlling factors are proposed as well as the construction of specific models for each type of landslide. 5 Model building: as for the construction of a geo-statistical model, different solutions are compared and the model presenting the same results and objectivity is chosen, considering it needs a lower implementation in terms of cost and time. 6 Validation: models are subject to different validation techniques, which are then compared to each other. 7 Spatial exporting of a landslide susceptibility model: this is a trial to define and validate the terms of landslide susceptibility for a wide area in the likes of hundreds or thousands of square kilometers, based on studies of some fields that represent it. Having clear that the result of this type of study is intended to provide maps that can be used by planners in a useful manner, these must be characterized by an immediacy in understanding even by non-experts and they must also be easy to read and interpret. Therefore, these methods should be as simple as possible, for example, susceptibility levels must be clearly expressed not only in quantitative but also in descriptive terms (Clerici et al., 2010). Like many other authors, the purpose of this work is to make a contribution to the scientific community by trying to offer a modest contribution in solving some problems in this field through experiments and modeling carried out in a range of contexts and comparing the results between them.
