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This article reports on an audience costs experiment embedded into a survey of the British public (N = 2235). We extend previous research into audience costs in three main directions. First, we provide clear and direct evidence that they exist for a second-order democratic power, the United Kingdom. Second, we show that the extent of audience costs varies, and at times substantially, along with features of the crisis situation that have not been examined empirically in this context before. In particular, the type of crisis strongly influences public reactions both to bluffing in general and to the wisdom or otherwise of escalating crises before backing down. While audience costs do appear to exist for a UK Prime Minister, he or she cannot inflate them by moving up the escalation chain. Rather, a limited use of force tends to mitigate these costs among the British public because it appears to them a more consistent strategy. Third, we show that public disapproval of a failed bluffing strategy is stronger among the more politically engaged, increasing the likelihood that audience costs will be paid at the ballot box. Adapted from the source document.

The univariate log‐Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) has shown considerable potential for the flexible modelling of the spatial, and more recently, spatiotemporal, intensity functions of planar point patterns within a restricted region in space. Its flexibility and mathematical tractability are partly offset by the need to acquire sensible estimates of the parameters controlling the dependence structure of the Gaussian field given the observed data. The method of minimum contrast, which compares theoretical descriptors of the process with their non‐parametric counterparts in order to obtain the required estimates, is arguably the most popular in practice to date. This article provides a comprehensive set of simulation studies focused on gauging the performance and impact of minimum contrast methods for parameter estimation of these processes. Results indicate that concerns over arbitrariness of implementation of minimum contrast give way to satisfactory practical performance.

PurposeThis paper is the sequel to the authors' earlier paper in this journal and aims to present the "future research" outlined in that paper.Design/methodology/approachThe approaches being employed by Welsh local authorities in commissioning home care from the independent sector are surveyed to see how a mixed economy of care is being implemented. The observed differences are analysed to see what can be learnt for the benefit of public sector managers concerned with the development of commissioning practices. Semi‐structured interviews have been performed with home care managers and commissioning officers in 13 (60 per cent) of the local, unitary authorities in Wales. Managers at independent home care providers have been interviewed also. The study has been ongoing since September 2004. For comparison, Barnet in England has been included because, unlike any Welsh authority, it has implemented 100 per cent outsourcing of home care. Croydon has been included as it has a good practice brokerage that has helped it to expand its provision from the independent sector.FindingsGreat diversity is seen in the approaches adopted by the Welsh local authorities when commissioning home care from the independent sector. They differ in the proportion of home care that is commissioned from the independent sector, what is commissioned, the number of independent providers and the contractual arrangements. These features are used to develop a taxonomy of home care strategies that reveals high levels of diversity. It is seen that in Wales there has been less political drive and compulsion to outsource home care than in England, but the natural desire to reduce costs in the face of a growing need for home care is now driving outsourcing in Wales.Practical implicationsThis paper provides guidance to public sector managers in local authorities seeking best practice in the commissioning of home care from the independent sector.Originality/valueThe existing literature contains little research into good practice in the commissioning of home care by local authorities from the independent sector. This paper is a timely contribution to addressing this shortfall.