Search results

The relationship between processes and time-varying covariates is of central theoretical interest in addressing many social science research questions. On the one hand, event history analysis (EHA) has been the chosen method to study these kinds of relationships when the outcomes can be meaningfully specified as simple instantaneous events or transitions. On the other hand, sequence analysis (SA) has made increasing inroads into the social sciences to analyze trajectories as holistic "process outcomes." We propose an original combination of these two approaches called the sequence analysis multistate model (SAMM) procedure. The SAMM procedure allows the study of the relationship between time-varying covariates and trajectories of categorical states specified as process outcomes that unfold over time. The SAMM is a stepwise procedure: (1) SA-related methods are used to identify ideal-typical patterns of changes within trajectories obtained by considering the sequence of states over a predefined time span; (2) multistate event history models are estimated to study the probability of transitioning from a specific state to such ideal-typical patterns. The added value of the SAMM procedure is illustrated through an example from life-course sociology on how (1) time-varying family status is associated with women's employment trajectories in East and West Germany and (2) how German reunification affected these trajectories in the two subsocieties.

In what sequences have nations changed institutionally in history and does that order matter for later democratization? If so, are there historical-institutional pathways of "civilizations"? These previously neglected research problems are addressed in this paper on the basis of a new, unique, and enormous data set tracking all political institutions and systems in the world monthly since 1789. The aim is both empirical and theoretical: to take steps toward an understanding of the sequential aspects of political-institutional evolution. Results visualize sequences at regime level that show few signs of path dependency. They also show that democracy may emerge in all types of regimes, though at varying paces. Separating religious-majority nations, Muslim systems are less affected by democracy diffusion than other religious-majority nations. Muslim political systems also exhibit larger regime type unpredictability. Taken together with estimates of GDP per capita, majority religions explain a minor share of discrepancies between regime types: wealth of nations is more important than majority religion on a general, regime type diversity level. However, specifications of institutional details will have to be made in future research in this new area of historical political-institutional study.

Japan's commitments to the UN-authorized peace operations in East Timor were the largest contribution the country has made in the history of its international peace operations. Notably, Japan's participation in the peacebuilding operations in East Timor was based on "human security" as one of the pillars of its diplomatic policy. Moreover, Japan's participation in the peace operations in East Timor was a touchstone issue for its human security policy. Yet, one simple but important question arises. How consistent were Japan's commitments to the peace operations? In an attempt to answer to this question, this paper systematically examines Japan's contributions to the international peace operations for East Timor. In order to investigate long-term and complicated activities in the peace operations, this paper employs timeline "sequence analysis" as a research method which combines and simplifies analytical models suggested in earlier scholarship. Through the application of sequence analysis, this paper investigates four stages of Japan's contributions to the peace operations in East Timor: 1) preventive deployment (UNAMET), 2) peace-enforcement (INTERFET), 3) peacekeeping (UNTAET), and 4) peacebuilding (e.g. UNMISET). The findings of this research reveal to what extent Japan's commitments to the peace operations were consistent and for human security of East Timor.

This article provides estimates of different kinds of contemporary migration trajectories, highlighting multiple or repeated migrations. Using sequence analysis on linked longitudinal register data, we identify different migration trajectories for three cohorts (1998, 2003, and 2008) of 315,000 immigrants in Switzerland. Multinomial regression analysis reveals the demographic characteristics associated with specific migration trajectories. We demonstrate high heterogeneity in migration practices, showing that direct and definitive settlement in the destination country remains a common trajectory and that highly mobile immigrants are less common. We conclude that accounts of a fundamental "mobility turn" have been overstated.

Objectives: This study aims to assess the impact of care consumption patterns and individual characteristics on the cost of treating differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC), in France, with a specific emphasis on socioeconomic position.Methods: The methodology involved a net cost approach utilising cases from the EVATHYR cohort and controls from the French National Health Insurance database. Care consumption patterns were created using Optimal Matching and clustering techniques. The individual characteristics influence on patterns was assessed using multinomial logistic regression. The individual characteristics and patterns influence on care costs was assessed using generalised estimating equations.Results: The findings revealed an average cost of €13,753 per patient during the initial 3 years. Regression models suggested the main predictors of high DTC specific care consumption tended to include having a high risk of cancer recurrence (OR = 4.97), being a woman (OR = 2.00), and experiencing socio-economic deprivation (OR = 1.26), though not reaching statistical significance. Finally, high DTC-specific care consumers also incurred higher general care costs (RR = 1.35).Conclusion: The study underscores the increased costs of managing DTC, shaped by consumption habits and socioeconomic position, emphasising the need for more nuanced DTC management strategies.

BackgroundLocal authorities in Scotland have a responsibility to provide support for vulnerable children and young people, known as 'looked after children'. This support can include providing care for these children away from home, but there have been growing concerns that children with out of home placements may experience multiple placements before a stable home environment is established for them. As a result, policy changes have aimed to reduce the amount of instability which looked after children experience, but our current understanding of care placement stability in Scotland, and how this has changed over time, is limited.
ObjectivesThis project aims to develop our understanding of the patterns of instability experienced by children looked after away from home by applying state sequence analysis (SSA) administrative data regarding children's care placements from 2008 to 2017 ( 70,000 children). Data are provided by Scottish Government.
Methods and FindingsSSA is a method commonly used to describe developmental processes which consist of changes between different states - in this case, types of care placement - and provides a number of tools to describe in/stability in these processes. In this paper we use SSA to analyse sequences of placements for multiple cohorts of children to give a detailed description of how placement stability for looked after children in Scotland has changed over the last decade, with results show differences in the typical placement sequence patterns for children of different ages. We and also discuss some methodological challenges which arise when implementing SSA using administrative data.
ConclusionsCombining SSA and administrative data provides a useful way to describe the typical patterns of looked after care placements, and how these patterns have changed over time.