Search results

The book's central theme is that a policymaker's role is to enhance the public's ability to co-ordinate their price information, price expectations, and economic activities. This role is fulfilled when policymakers maintain inflation stability. Inflation persists less when an implicit or explicit inflation target is met. Granato and Wong argue that inflation persistence is reduced when the public substitutes the prespecified inflation target for past inflation. A by-product of this co-ordination process is greater economic stability. In particular, inflation stability contributes to greater economic output stability, including the potential for the simultaneous reduction of both inflation and output variability - inflation-output co-stabilization (IOCS). Granato and Wong use historical, formal, and applied statistical analysis of business-cycle performance in the United States for the 1960 to 2000 period. They find that during periods when policymakers emphasise inflation stability, inflation uncertainty and persistence were reduced.

Tension has long existed in the social sciences between quantitative and qualitative approaches on one hand, and theory-minded and empirical techniques on the other. The latter divide has grown sharper in the wake of new behavioural and experimental perspectives which draw on both sides of these modelling schemes. This book works to address this disconnect by establishing a framework for methodological unification: empirical implications of theoretical models (EITM). This framework connects behavioural and applied statistical concepts, develops analogues of these concepts, and links and evaluates these analogues. The authors offer detailed explanations of how these concepts may be framed, to assist researchers interested in incorporating EITM into their own research. They go on to demonstrate how EITM may be put into practice for a range of disciplines within the social sciences, including voting, party identification, social interaction, learning, conflict and cooperation to macro-policy formulation.

This Overview sets a base-line of data on income and wealth inequality in Australia in 2017-18, against which to assess the impact thatCOVID19, high unemployment, and government policies to protect incomes and jobs have on the living standards of different groups in the community.Future reports will closely examine this impact when the data are available. A preliminary analysis of impacts on paid work hours, different population groups and of government payments is included in the Supplementary Report: The impact of COVID19 on income inequality.

This paper uses the empirical implications of theoretical models (EITM) framework to examine the consequences of the asymmetric diffusion of expectations. In the spirit of the traditional two-step flow model of communication, less-informed agents learn the expectations of more-informed agents. We find that when there is misinterpretation in the information acquisition process, a boomerang effect exists. In this equilibrium the less-informed agents' forecasts confound those of more-informed agents. We apply the EITM approach to a key economic variable known to have a relation to economic fluctuations -- inflation expectations. Using surveyed inflation expectations data for the period, 1978-2000, we find the boomerang effect exists. One implication of this finding pertains to economic policy and economic volatility: because policymakers have more information than the public, the boomerang effect can lead policymakers to make inaccurate forecasts of economic conditions and conduct erroneous policies which contribute to economic instability. [Copyright Elsevier Ltd.]

An important disconnect exists between the current use of formal modeling and applied statistical analysis. In general, a lack of linkage between the two can produce statistically significant parameters of ambiguous origin that, in turn, fail to assist in falsifying theories and hypotheses. To address this scientific challenge, a framework for unification is proposed. Methodological unification leverages the mutually reinforcing properties of formal and applied statistical analysis to produce greater transparency in relating theory to test. This framework for methodological unification, or what has been referred to as the empirical implications of theoretical models (EITM), includes (1) connecting behavioral (formal) and applied statistical concepts, (2) developing behavioral (formal) and applied statistical analogues of these concepts, and (3) linking and evaluating the behavioral (formal) and applied statistical analogues. The elements of this EITM framework are illustrated with examples from voting behavior, macroeconomic policy and outcomes, and political turnout.

Introduction Levels of utilization of health services vary socially and geographically. Differences in the rates of usage are also associated with geographical aspects of health care systems. The purpose of this study was to capture spatial variations in hospital health services utilization in the elderly population in Hong Kong, a Special Administrative Region of China. Materials and Methods We carried out a secondary analysis of a database from the Hospital Authority (HA) which covers 98% (N = 243,245) of the total registered deaths in Hong Kong during 1999 to 2005. Deaths at age 65y and above (N = 184,671) were included in the analysis. Age-sex weighted mean utilization ratio of hospital services was calculated by dividing the age-sex weighted mean usage of a particular service for each district by that for the whole territory. The variation in utilization by the seniors was analyzed in terms of four types of services: length of stay (LOS) in HA hospitals, number of inpatient admissions, number of visits to specialist outpatient department (SOPD), and attendances at accident and emergency department (AED). Results Deaths at age 65y and above contributed to 76% of the total registered deaths. Each district contributed 1.0% to 9.1% of the total number of deaths in Hong Kong. Spatial analysis of the age-sex weighted mean utilization ratio showed significant geographic variation in the use of hospital services: the range of difference in the LOS between the lowest and highest district was 44%, while some differences as high as 33%, 35% and 39% in utilization ratios were observed in relation to number of inpatient admissions, visits to SOPD, and attendances at AED respectively. However, the patterns of these variations were not consistent for the four types of service being analyzed. Conclusions Geographic variation in the utilization of hospital health services across the 18 districts in Hong Kong among the elderly population during the last three years before death was demonstrated. However, the patterns of variation were different for the types of services being examined. Further studies using primary data at an individual level are needed to explain the variations. Detailed analysis examining the relationship between service provision, accessibility and health outcomes are also indicated in order to inform the planning of health service delivery.