The growing levels of external commercial borrowings (ECBs) among the emerging and developing economies have raised the fears that ECBs would lead to widespread crisis and threaten financial stability in India. Against this backdrop, the current study seeks to examine the trends and critically evaluate the policy pertaining to ECBs. In order to immune the economy from potential exchange rate shocks, we suggest to having specific policy focus on the domestic bond market, hedging mechanisms, and appropriate decisions on the cap and level of ECBs by the regulator.
Influential papers on how credit constraints affect international trade have shown a tendency to assume that asset tangibility and the share of external borrowing are exogenous industry characteristics that are time‐ and country‐invariant. In the finance literature, however, the share of external borrowing is viewed as endogenous and dependent on the amount of collateral that a firm can provide (and thus, implicitly, on its asset tangibility). Drawing from the finance literature, I hypothesize that there are supply‐side factors that exert substantial influences on the share of external financing. I test this new perspective with country‐ and industry‐specific measures of asset tangibility and external borrowing. I find that (i) the share of external borrowing increases in asset tangibility, and (ii) the sectoral rankings of asset tangibility and the share of external borrowing vary significantly across countries. Further, I develop a theoretical model to investigate the impact of financial development and asset tangibility on the demand and supply of external finance and exports. The model yields theoretical predictions that are consistent with, and provide intuition for, the above results. Both the model and my empirical results demonstrate that industries with more tangible assets export more from countries with high levels of financial development.
Recent literature argues that conflict in shifting adjustment costs between different socioeconomic groups delays necessary reforms and finds that such reforms often follow economic crises. This paper expands these models by including external borrowing by the private sector and shows that this may lead to a further delay in economic reform. Empirical evidence based on a large panel of developing and emerging economies supports this argument and shows that the result is slower economic growth. External financing sometimes acts like a ""pain reliever,"" postponing the much needed ""treatment
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In the recent past, Zambia has increased its external borrowings significantly after reaching the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) completion point. The Zambian government has been on an ambitious borrowing spree with the intent that most of these funds would be channelled towards building and maintenance of key national infrastructure including roads and construction of new airports. This study undertook to answer the question, does increasing external debt affect growth of a nation's economy? The thesis commenced an econometric study between the years 1980 to 2015 using publicly available data premised on the neoclassical economic growth model. The findings from this investigation show that shocks to external debt negatively impact the economic output of Zambia which is proxied by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Conversely, it was found that external debt stock could not reliably forecast future economic growth for the nation, a finding which in itself provides an area of further investigations. These research findings and recommendations make it clear that Zambia requires a comprehensive debt contraction and management framework to avoid the vagaries of short-term decisions which may not always be premised on sound economic thinking.
Since 1991 the share of sub-national outlays in total government spending has increased, reflecting their active role in service delivery and greater autonomy in policy-making and implementation. As a result, sub-national economic policies have taken on an increasingly important role in ensuring macroeconomic stability. The rising share of sub-national finance, including sub-national Governments (SNGs) debt as a share of general public debt abundantly reflects this trend of greater devolution of spending responsibilities, revenue - raising authority and the capacity to incur debt. The growing importance of SNG finances and the recognition that the trend can pose dangers to macroeconomic stability have informed different institutional responses to the difficulties of decentralized decision-making, especially addressing the need to improve policy coordination across levels of government and contain sub-national borrowing. The purpose of this paper is to articulate some issues in SNG borrowing arising from the peculiarities of the Nigerian situation. To this end, the paper is divided into four parts. Part one gives introduction. Part two outlines the models of control of sub-national borrowing across the developing and emerging market countries. It also highlights Nigeria's efforts in this regard. Part three outlines the structure of fiscal federalism in Nigeria highlighting constitutional, legislative, and administrative provisions for the sector, revenue allocation, revenue - expenditure gap, while part four dwells on the leading issues and challenges in SNG borrowing in Nigeria.
... at end-December 1983. - July 1984. - 14 S. - 29432.; ...at end-June 1985 together with revised data for end-December 1984 and end-December 1983. - January 1986. - 23 S. - 31183.; ... at end-December 1985 - together with revised data for end-June 1985 and end-December 1984. - July 1986. - 23 S. - 33136.; ... at end-June 1986 together with revised data for end-June and end-December 1985. - January 1987. - 23 S. - 33135.; ... at end-December 1986 together with revised data for end-June 1986 and end-December 1985. - 23 S. - 32752.; ... at end-June 1987 (together ith revised data for end-June and end-December 1986). - January 1988. - 23 S. - 33415
ABSTRACT: The Nigerian government has borrowed for more than three decades to fund the growing fiscal deficit based on a weak tax revenue base. After the repayment of the country's foreign loans in 2006, the borrowing structure has been dominated by domestic loans. Between 2006 and 2020, domestic borrowing has grown by more than 800 per cent. This study examines the effect of domestic borrowing on Nigeria's macroeconomic variables from 1975 to 1980. The variables examined against the effect of domestic borrowing include economic growth, financial development (broad money supply and credit to private sector), external borrowing, interest rate, inflation, industrial production, private investment, trade openness and population growth rate. The study utilised the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model. The BVAR approach gives more realistic estimations than other VAR models as it considers prior information steady states during analysis. The study also adopts the Cholesky impulse response function and variance decomposition approach in the investigation. The study found a long-run equilibrium relationship between domestic borrowing and other macroeconomic variables. Also, domestic borrowing positively and significantly affected economic growth, industrial production and inflation. However, domestic borrowing negatively and significantly affects trade openness. Although the effect of domestic borrowing on the financial development variables (broad money supply and credit to the private sector) is negative, it is insignificant. The Bayesian VAR impulse response simulation demonstrates that the fiscal policy shock from domestic borrowing impacts the macroeconomic variables in line with the estimated regression results. As a follow-up, the variance decomposition results show that the decomposition of the shocks from government domestic borrowing is borne more by external borrowing, broad money supply and interest rate in the order of magnitude. The study recommends a restriction in monetary policy to benchmark and closely checkmate the aggressive spending from domestic borrowing. Also, the Nigerian government should improve investment in infrastructure to enhance private sector productivity and expand taxes revenue base to mitigate the reliance on borrowing as a source of funding for fiscal deficit. Furthermore, the country's productivity must be coordinated by the government to expand the sources of foreign exchange earnings to enhance stability in the country's external sector.
PurposeThis paper aims to apply the debt sustainability framework using various ratios to review the current state of sovereign debt of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) member countries.Design/methodology/approachDebt sustainability framework using various ratios (which include the present value approach, Country Policy and Institutional Assessment debt policy assessment ranking and solvency ratio of external debt) for the period 2010 and 2017 were used for the analysis to determine external debt sustainability and solvency of ECOWAS members.FindingsThe findings indicate that most ECOWAS countries are already turning at the unsustainable debt path and may renege in their debt obligations, thus creating a vicious cycle of external borrowing that could lead to capital flight.Originality/valueThis paper offers the empirical evidence to identify which of the ECOWAS countries are already at the threshold of external debt stress, and in the likelihood to renege on their debt obligations.
