The State policy relating to utilization, renovation and conservation of forests has been formed depending for the most part on dynamics in developing socio-political and economic relations in the country, on the extent to which forest relations are reformed, and on the degree to which forest practice conforms with scientifically sound principles of sustainable forest management. To date, the forest sector is facing the necessity of solving problems associated with new big socio-economic challenges in society that are directly related to forestry. Because of this, it is necessary to develop a system of measures aimed at improving the legislatorial statutory regulation and at economic and organizational transformations in the forest sector based on principles of conservation and accumulation of the silvicultural and environmental potential of Ukraine's forests. The development of Ukraine's forestry calls for improving the legal, economic and organizational mechanisms designed for implementing Ukraine's forest policy and for applying modern methods of economic analysis with which to take optimal managerial decisions at all levels of management over the forest sector. To improve legal and economic relations in forestry, it is necessary to use internal (sectoral) reserves and to develop a legal regulatory framework for forestry at a macro-level under an active influence of forestry institutions. A system of measures has been considered on improving the legislative regulation as well as economic, organizational and managerial transformations in Ukraine's forestry. Improving of State management system for forestry is an important component part of institutional transformations in the forest sector of economy. This provides for the decentralization of management, the differentiation between supervising and economic functions in forest-managing State bodies at all levels with the transfer of corresponding authorities to economic players. The differentiation between the State administration and economic management is based upon the clear distribution of authorities and responsibilities between agents of management and economic players on a strict legislative basis. The principal function of the State administration of forests has to lie in the supervision over the observation of the forest legislation. Ukraine's forest policy has to ensure an ecosystem-based approach to the management over forest resources and forest utilization as well as to guarantee a democratic character and transparency of managerial decisions. Obligatory for this job are public relations, an extensive use of communication technologies, and the adoption, after discussions, of a document that would clearly outline strategic areas of Ukraine's forest policy. A National forest policy has to take in to account the recommendations of recent international conventions, wherein Ukraine participated, on problems of environmental control and to be based upon accordingly revised legal regulatory acts of the State. At the same time, this policy has to recognize an exceptionally important role of Ukrainian forests not only for the national economy but also for stabilization of the environment. ; Государственная политика в сфере лесного хозяйства формируется главным образом в зависимости от динамики развития общественно-политических и экономических отношений в стране, степени реформирования непосредственно лесных отношений и соответствия лесохозяйственной деятельности научно обоснованным принципам устойчивого управления лесами. Рассмотрены и определены основные направления совершенствования лесных отношений и реформирования системы управления лесным хозяйством по ее составляющим (управление, планирование и финансирование) как природного и социально-экономического объекта в современных условиях. Реформирование лесной отрасли Украины предусматривает использование европейских моделей совершенствования лесоуправления с учетом отечественного опыта и традиций ведения лесного хозяйства в стране и опирается на систему научно обоснованных рекомендаций. Научное обоснование стратегии развития отрасли лесного хозяйства в условиях реформирования экономики и социально-экономических отношений в стране позволит решить вопросы развития лесных отношений в перспективе и соответственно отразится в лесной политике Украины. Данный этап реформирования необходимо рассматривать как период, связанный с совершенствованием системы государственного управления и формированием соответствующей нормативно-правовой базы для обеспечения преобразований в лесном хозяйстве. Направления реформирования отрасли должны соответствовать современным реалиям и тенденциям развития общества, экономики страны и непосредственно лесного хозяйства. Совершенствование лесных отношений и системы управления лесного хозяйства Украины требует соответствующего научно-методического обоснования. Методологически при определении направлений развития лесных отношений и лесоуправления необходимо учитывать общие подходы реформирования социально-экономической системы страны в целом. Исходя из этого, лесную отрасль нельзя рассматривать как замкнутую ведомственную структуру, способную к саморегуляции, без учета влияния внешних социально-экономических факторов. Именно на таких принципах и с учетом европейского опыта преобразований рассмотрены направления совершенствования управленческого и организационно-экономического механизма в лесном хозяйстве в современных условиях и перспективе. Проблема совершенствования государственной политики в сфере лесопользования, воспроизводства и охраны лесов охватывает широкий круг правовых, экономических, организационных, финансовых, природоохранных вопросов и требует системного решения. Стратегия развития лесной отрасли должна быть гибкой, ее необходимо периодически пересматривать, адаптируя к изменениям нормативно-правовых, социально-экономических и экологических условий страны, учитывая прогрессивные мировые тенденции развития. Постепенный переход лесной отрасли Украины на европейские стандарты ведения лесного хозяйства требует проведения ряда мероприятий по корректированию лесной политики страны, совершенствованию государственного управления лесами, перспективному планированию и финансированию лесохозяйственной деятельности. ; Державна політика у сфері лісокористування, лісовідновлення та збереження лісів формується переважно залежно від динаміки розвитку суспільно-політичних і економічних відносин у країні, ступеня реформування безпосередньо лісових відносин та відповідності лісогосподарської діяльності науково обґрунтованим засадам сталого управління лісами. Розглянуто і визначено основні напрями вдосконалення лісових відносин та реформування системи управління лісовим господарством за її складовими частинами (управління, планування та фінансування) як природного і соціально-економічного об'єкта. Під час реформування лісової галузі України потрібно використовувати європейські моделі удосконалення лісоуправління з урахуванням вітчизняного досвіду і традицій ведення лісового господарства у країні та опиратися на систему науково обгрунтованих рекомендацій. На початковому етапі реформування потрібно науково обґрунтувати стратегію розвитку галузі, що дасть змогу вирішити питання розвитку лісових відносин у перспективі. Цей етап реформування на галузевому рівні треба розглядати як період, пов'язаний з удосконаленням системи державного управління та формуванням відповідної нормативно-правової бази для забезпечення відповідних перетворень у лісовому господарстві.
El tránsito de la Historia Antigua a la Historia Medieval es uno de los períodos que más interrogantes plantean a los estudiosos. Se trata de una época caracterizada por profundos cambios que afectarán significativamente a los modos de vida. Así, la seguridad se verá amenazada por invasiones y guerras, llegará el fin de grandes Imperios y la transformación de instituciones antiguas como el Senado. Surgirán también nuevas formas de propiedad y explotación de la tierra. Además, la religión será omnipresente y constitutiva de una nueva visión de la vida. En este momento se gestan, las Grandes recopilaciones de Justiniano, obra jurídica fundamental para la Historia del Derecho y de las Instituciones Jurídicas. Ésta (Codex, Digesto e Instituta), tiene su colofón en Las Novelas, obra que no ha ocupado el lugar que le corresponde en la Historia del Derecho, puesto que nunca fueron recopiladas oficialmente. Los objetivos de este trabajo son: 1) Conocer si las Novelas suponen la concreción de un plan global de gobierno de Justiniano 2) establecer si las Novelas tienen una coherencia ideológica que refleje sus cosmovisiones, considerando si ésta se mantiene a lo largo del período de edición y si la labor de publicación se desarrolla de forma sistemática. 3) Organizar las Novelas siguiendo los criterios cronológico y temático, realizando un estudio cuantitativo y cualitativo de la fuente en su contexto que facilite la accesibilidad a los posibles investigadores. 4) Señalar aquellas líneas de investigación futuras que necesitarían de un estudio más detallado. 5) Estudiar los temas novelares y agruparlos según el ámbito Administrativo, Político, Religioso y Social. El procedimiento de trabajo que se ha seguido ha consistido en recoger la información atendiendo a las fuentes relevantes con el fin de generar de modo sistemático, racional y crítico, un fichero temático. Posteriormente y aplicando una metodología hermenéutica se han podido establecer relaciones entre los hechos y su contexto, con el fin de contemporizar y lograr una mejor comprensión e interpretación de los acontecimientos estudiados. Principales conclusiones: 1. Justiniano expone sus cosmovisiones en las Novelas, y convierte su publicidad en herramienta fundamental para la transformación ideológica de la sociedad y el logro de sus metas. 2. Las Novelas presentan una estructura homogénea, exponiendo un argumento justificativo en el prefacio, aportando información suficiente para el logro de sus fines, y facilitando controlar a la persona responsable de su publicidad en todo momento. Pueden agruparse en dos etapas: una prolífica y de mayor calidad (535-542), y otra de menor número y calidad (543-565). 3. Justiniano, sirviéndose de las Novelas, aplicará progresivamente su cosmovisión religiosa cristiana, teniendo en cuenta el espacio donde se puede materializar su visión teocéntrica y exclusiva de la religión cristiana. 4. Los objetivos principales de las reformas de Justiniano se dirigen a los campos político-administrativo, religioso y social. 5. Las Novelas constituyen una fuente de información política, jurídica y social inestimable. 6. Hay dos temas que acaparan la atención de Justiniano de manera significativa, uno es la justificación del poder y el otro la igualdad entre hombres y mujeres. The transition from Ancient History to Medieval History is one of the periods which brings up most questions to scholars. It was a time of deep changes that significantly affected lifestyles. Thus, security was threatened by invasions and wars, great empires came to an end and old institutions such as the Senate were transformed. New forms of ownership and land exploitation also arose. Furthermore, religion was omnipresent and constituted a new vision of life. At this time, Justinian's major collections were created, conforming a fundamental legal work for the History of Law and Legal Institutions. Even though his works (Codex, Digesto and Instituta) reach their peak in The Novels, they were never officially collected, resulting in oblivion in the history of law. This PhD dissertation presents the following objectives: 1) Getting to know whether The Novels involve a global plan of government from Justinian. 2) Establishing whether The Novels have an ideological coherence that reflects his world view, considering if this is maintained throughout the period of editing and if the publishing work is developed systematically. 3) Organizing The Novels following chronological and thematic criteria, making a quantitative and qualitative study of the source in its context which makes accessibility easier to potential researchers. 4) Indicating future research lines that would need further study. 5) Studying novel themes so as to group them according to Political, Religious and Social Administrative areas. The research methodology consisted in collecting information paying attention to the relevant sources in order to generate a theme file in a systematic, rational and critical way. And subsequently applying a hermeneutic methodology, relationships between facts and context were established, in order to achieve a better understanding and interpretation of the events considered. Main findings: 1. Justinian presents his worldviews in The Novels, and turns its advertising into a major tool for both the ideological transformation of society and the achievement of his goals. 2. The Novels have a homogeneous structure, presenting a justification in the preface, providing enough information to achieve his goals, and facilitating the control of the person in charge of his publicity at all times. They can be assembled in two stages: a productive and higher quality group (535-542), and a less quality with smaller number group (543-565). 3. Using The Novels, Justinian progressively applies his Christian religion worldview, bearing in mind the space where his God-centred and exclusive vision of the Christian religion can become a reality. 4. The main objectives of Justinian's reforms target the political-administrative, religious and social fields. 5. The Novels are a source of political, legal and social invaluable information. 6. There are two issues that capture Justinian's attention significantly; one is the justification of power and the other, the equality between men and women within the protection of those most disadvantaged.
Ei-tarttuvien tautien riskitekijöiden yhteys sosioekonomisiin muuttujiin nopeasti muuttuvissa yhteiskunnissa; kuuden entisen Neuvostoliiton maan analyysi Tausta: Sosioekonomisilla muuttujilla on merkittävä rooli ei-tarttuvien tautien riskitekijöiden jakautumisessa väestössä, ja tämä rooli voi olla erityisen kriittinen entisen Neuvostoliiton maissa johtuen niiden nopeista yhteiskunnallisista muutoksista. Tämän väitöskirjan tavoitteena oli tutkia ei-tarttuvien tautien riskitekijöiden esiintymisen yhteyttä sosioekonomiseen asemaan nopeasti muuttuvissa yhteiskunnissa, sekä niiden merkitystä ei-tarttuvien tautien ehkäisy- ja kontrolliohjelmille. Menetelmät: Aineistona oli 15 501 aikuista kuudesta entisen Neuvostoliiton maasta (Georgia, Latvia, Kazakstan, Ukraina, Venäjä ja Viro), jotka olivat mukana World Health Survey - tutkimuksessa 2002-2004. Tutkimuksen kohteena olevat ei-tarttuvien tautien riskitekijät olivat tupakointi, runsas alkoholin käyttö, ylipaino ja lihavuus, vähäinen vihannesten ja hedelmien kulutus sekä liian vähäinen liikunta. Koulutusta, nykyistä työtä ja varallisuutta käytettiin kuvaamaan sosioekonomista asemaa. Tulokset: Vähäinen vihannesten ja hedelmien kulutus, ylipaino ja lihavuus sekä miesten tupakointi olivat yleisiä riskitekijöitä tutkimuksen kohteena olevassa väestössä, sen sijaan runsas alkoholin käyttö ja liian vähäinen liikunta olivat odotettua vähäisempiä riskitekijöitä. Sosioekonomista asemaa kuvaavista indikaattoreista varallisuus ja nykyinen työ liittyivät vahvemmin riskitekijöiden esiintymiseen kuin koulutustaso. Johtopäätökset: Sosioekonomisilla tekijöillä on tutkimuksen kohteena olevissa maissa suuri merkitys ei-tarttuvien tautien riskitekijöiden yleisyyteen. Ei-tarttuvien tautien riskitekijöiden yleisyyttä pitäisi pyrkiä alentamaan sekä väestö- että yksilötasoisilla terveyden edistämiseen ja tautien ehkäisyyn pyrkivillä terveysohjelmilla, joiden tulisi erityisesti kohdistua korkeimman riskin omaaviin ja köyhimpiin väestöryhmiin. ; Socioeconomic determinants play a substantial role in the distribution of noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factors, and this can be specifically critical in countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) due to the rapid changes in society. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 has brought immense social, political and economic changes with damaging consequences on the population health and health sector, and a rapid rise in social inequalities in health in this particular part of the world. The transition process of the region and its consequences on health have given important insights into health determinants such as smoking, alcohol, diet and others. Although general picture of these nations is similar, some countries are doing better than the rest while some are still struggling much. The aim of this dissertation was to examine the socioeconomic determinants of noncommunicable disease risk factors in rapidly changing societies and their implications for noncommunicable disease prevention and control programmes. To achieve this aim, the data from the World Health Survey (2002-2004) was used which covered 15 501 adults from six countries of the FSU, namely: Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Russia and Ukraine. The NCD risk factors were smoking, heavy alcohol use, overweight and obesity, low fruit and vegetable intake, and physical inactivity. Additionally, co-occurrence of these five risk factors were studied by creating a new variable 'multiple risk factors' for people with none to all risk factors. Socioeconomic status was measured by education, current job and wealth quintile. All analyses were stratified by sex as the prevalence and patterns of NCD risk factors varied by sex. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed, employing a general modelling approach in favour of the study results to be comparable. The prevalence of low fruit and vegetable intake, male smoking, and overweight and obesity was high in this population, while that of heavy alcohol use and physical inactivity was lower than expected. Moreover, the level of multiple risk factors was very high in both sexes, but men had a higher number of co-occurring risk factors. The most common co-occurring combinations were low fruit and vegetable intake, overweight and obesity, and also smoking for men. From studied SES indicators, wealth quintile and current job were the most significant predictors of NCD risk factors rather than education. Educational level was not related to all NCD risk factors and multiple risk factors for females; whereas for males, it was associated with only smoking and multiple risk factors. Better educated men had lower likelihoods of smoking and three or more risk factors. On the contrary, wealth was associated with the majority of risk factors for both sexes. Wealthier males were less likely to be smokers, had higher intake of fruit and vegetables, and yet were more overweight and obese. Those from poor and the richest quintiles had lower likelihoods of multiple risk factors. Similarly to men, wealthier women were more likely to have adequate amount of fruits and vegetables. Rural women from the richest quintile had sedentary lifestyle, while wealth quintile was not significant for urban women. Likewise in men, wealthier women had more excess weight but it was only relevant for those women aged 45 and above. Wealth had some protective effect for heavy alcohol use among females, but not among males. Females working for pay, except those working for government, smoked more than those not working. Employers from both sexes had higher consumption of fruit and vegetables, in addition to government employees and self-employed men. All government employees and as well those males who are non-government employees or self-employed were at higher level of physical activity. Self-employed men from urban areas were more likely to have excess weight. Based on the study results, following conclusions can be drawn: 1) To tackle effectively certain public health problems, it is important to consider and understand the history and background of the society in regards to their social, economic and political context. 2) It is crucial to use all three dimensions of socioeconomic status (education, occupation, and wealth or income) in health inequality studies to detect the true picture for any particular population. Thus, it is advisable to gather all essential demographic and socioeconomic indicators in any data for health. 3) Finally, this thesis highlights the importance of socioeconomic determinants of NCD risk factors in these transition or rapidly changing countries with inadequate health systems. Health policies should address high levels of NCD risk factors by providing population-wide and individual-based preventive measures and policies, explicitly targeting those who are most vulnerable and poor, in addition to the implementation of multiple-intervention strategies that will achieve greater health gains targeting the most common co-occurring combinations of NCD risk factors.
THE EFFECT OF INFORMATIONAL GAP ACTIVITY TO THE UNMOTIVATED STUDENTS' ABILITY OF 8th GRADERS AT MTS AL HASANAH 1 SLAHUNG, PONOROGO Diyan Novika English Education Department, Language and Art Faculty, Surabaya State University. ndidy71@gmail.com Drs Fahri, M.A English Education Department, Language and Art Faculty, Surabaya State University. fahri@englishunesa.com Abstract The aims of this research is to find out the improvement of unmotivated students' speaking ability after treating by using Informational Gap Activity in teaching English of the eight grader of Mts Al Hasanah 1 Slahung Ponorogo. The method that is used in this study is a quantitative method. This design of study had more potential threat to internal validity as the time between pretest and posttest increases and as experimental situation become less controlled and contrived (Mc Millan, 1992 : 175) the design of single group of pretest and posttest. The data on students' English speaking ability were collected with a performance test. The hypothesis were tested with two-ways analysis using statistic calculation of T-test formula with significance degree 5% and 1%. And the other one is using questionnaire. The results of analysis showed that: (1) there were differences of the English speaking ability between the unmotivated students who learned through and that of the unmotivated students who learned through conventional method The result is 2,045 2,756 (2) and the other one is from their responses based on the questionnaire. The conclusion is that the implementation of Informational Gap Activity method has an effect on the English speaking ability viewed from students' verbal aptitude. Keywords: Unmotivated students, Informational Gap Activity INTRODUCTION English becomes the most essential language in the world. Almost all the people from many different countries around the world use it to communicate. The area of English has always become a special interest. It is spoken by millions of people all over the world. Genc (2007, p. 6) says that "when we learn a language, there are four skills that we need for complete communication. When we learn our native language, we usually learn to listen first, then to speak, then to read, and finally to write. These are called the four "language skills". As a consequence, English serves for many times many more people as a barrier between themselves and those some fields of interest, many people in their own countries will not be able to become doctors, for example if they cannot learn enough English. That's some reasons why English is important. Actually, learning process becomes the primary reference for determining success in learning. But, the more we get in our nation nowadays are most teachers do not pay attention and assume that this is not an important thing to discuss. On the contrary, it is very important for our education. According to the 2006 National Study of Junior/Senior High School Student Engagement (Yazzie-Mintz, 2007), two of three high school students are bored every day in class—typically, they say, because the work isn't interesting, challenging, or relevant for them. It seems that the classroom activities didn't interesting anymore for them. One more thing that we have to know is that the classroom is a social construct that is designed to facilitate learning. While learning can occur even when the only active participant is the student-as is the case when a person is reading a user manual the most effective learning scenarios are those that involve the proactive involvement of both instructors and students. The fundamental benefit of a personal student-teacher type of interaction is that the feedback and control mechanism is firmly established and can always be invoked to maintain the learning direction towards pre-set objectives. Moreover, the learning process is essentially affected by peer-group relationships within the classroom environment. That is, the interactions between teachers and students as well as among students constitute the learning network within which lesson concepts are shared, affirmed, and built upon. When disconnect occurs between teachers and students, the class becomes ineffective. Sutherland and Singh ( 2004 ) said "states that passive learning contributes to the failure of students". The lack of adequate student involvement almost certainly spells cognitive failure, especially when the opportunities to learn and practice English outside the classroom are rare or isolated. We can imagine what will happen with the student in that condition. Sure, unmotivated student will really increase just because of passive learning. And the more problem frequently found caused from that condition is that because of motivation lack to practice the second language in daily conversation. They are also too shy and afraid to take part in the conversation and afraid to make mistakes. Many factors can cause the problem of the students. Speaking skills here namely the students that learning language. Interest the material and the media among others including the technique in teaching English. Educator in general will agree with the importance of motivation as a key to success in language acquisition as it's both of condition and a result of effective interaction (winne and mark, 1989) "journal of information management education volume 11, 2012" Now, let's compare between what Yazzie-Mintz and Genc. Yazzie-Mintz said based on their research that there are two of three high school students are bored every day in class and the typically cause is that the work isn't interesting, challenging, or relevant for them. It seems that the classroom activities didn't interesting anymore for them. The second is about Genc statement (2007, p. 6) he said "when we learn a language, there are four skills that we need for complete communication. In the other hand, the class activity should be continuing as well as possible to make the student able to speak English, at least they have braveness to speak. Especially for the unmotivated student, and there should be good activities to face them. Of course the methods/activity should be interesting. One of them is by giving students information – gap activity which might make the students interact easily in speaking activity. Sari (2008,p. 3) says, "the core of information gap method is a corporation between groups and pairs". Information gap activities involve the learners in sharing the information that they have in order to solve a problem, gather information or make decisions (Rees,2005, p. 156). So, English language learning students should be involved in as many situations as possible where one of them has some information and another does not, but has to get it. In other words, situations containing an information gap between the participants are very useful. Neu and Reeser (1997, p. 127) said that in an information gap activity, one person has certain information that must be shared with others in order to solve a problem, gather information or make decisions. Information gap is a useful activity in which one person has information that the other lacks. Another advantage of information gap activities is that students are forced to negotiate meaning because they must make what they are saying comprehensible to others in order to accomplish the task (Neu and Reeser, 1997, p. 128). For these reasons, the writer is interested in analyzing the effect of Information Gap Activity to the unmotivated students' speaking ability of 8th graders at Mts Alhasanah 1 Slahung, Ponorogo METODE This section presented the steps how the researcher conducts the study. It covers the research design, participant of study, research instrument, procedure of collecting data, and data analysis. This research was an experimental research. It was done to find out the effect of Information Gap Activity to teach the unmotivated students speaking ability of the eight graders junior high student of Mts Al-Hasanah 1 Slahung. The method that is used in this study is a quantitative method. The study is based on both library and a field research. In the field research, the writer collected the data by using observing teaching and also treat the student (teaching English using information gap activity) learning the subjects. In this study, the researcher just used one group an experimental group. It is called as single group pretest-posttest design. And the results were determined by comparing the pretest and posttest scores. This design of study had more potential threat to internal validity as the time between pretest and posttest increases and as experimental situation become less controlled and contrived (Mc Millan, 1992 : 175) the design of single group of pretest and posttest is presented below: Table 2 Single group pretest and posttest design Group Pretest Treatment Posttest A Y1 X Y2 In which: A : The group of subjects Y1 : The pre-test given before treatment X : The independent variable or treatment where information gap activity was applied Y2 : The post-test given before treatment There were two variables in this study. There were dependent variable and independent variable. In this case, the independent variable is the teaching technique "informational gap activity". And the dependent variable would be the students' speaking ability. Based on (Mc Millan, 1992:22) stated that independent variable is the first thing that influence or predict the result. As the dependent variable is the students' speaking score. According to Mc Millan (1992:22), dependent variable is something that affected and predicted by the independent variable. The Participants of the study is ninth graders of mts Al Hasanah 1 Slahung, Ponorogo. It is located at Jalan Ponorogo-Pacitan. The researcher chose the place because the researcher graduated from there so that it makes the researcher easier to conduct the research there. There is one instruments use by the researcher in his study. There is: speaking performance (which is the score of pronunciation, grammar, vocabulary, fluency and comprehension) that would be applied using pre-test and post-test. The data from the score of speaking performance test are collected from two tests which are pre-test and post-test. And the data is presented in quantitative manner since the study is experimental research. These tests are to find out the unmotivated students' speaking ability. Before implementing the technique, the researcher teaches them without using Information Gap Activity. Then the researcher administered pre-test to the students. The students are asked to perform their speaking in front of the class with their friend then the researcher asked the some question about the materials about telling the time. In the next day the researcher gives them two times treatment or teaching speaking using Information Gap Activity then he gives the post-test to know the result by using rubric of speaking as below: a. Accent Pronunciation frequently unintelligible. Frequent gross errors and a very heavy accent make understanding difficult, require frequent repetition. "Foreign accent" requires concentrated listening and mispronunciation lead to occasional misunderstanding and apparent errors in grammar or vocabulary. Marked "foreign accent" and occasional mispronunciations which do not interfere with understanding. No conspicuous mispronunciations, but would not be taken for a native speaker. Native pronunciation, which no trace of "foreign accent". b. Grammar Grammar almost entirely inaccurate except in stock phrases. Constant errors showing control of very few major patterns and frequently preventing communication. Frequent errors showing some major patterns uncontrolled and causing occasional irritation and misunderstanding. Occasional errors showing imperfect control of some patterns but no weakness that causing misunderstanding. Few errors, with no patterns of failure. No more than two errors during the interview. c. Vocabulary Vocabulary inadequate for even the simplest conversation. Vocabulary limited to basic personal and survival areas (time, food, transportation, family, etc.) Choice of words sometimes inaccurate, limitation of vocabulary prevent discussion of some common professional and social topics Professional vocabulary adequate to discuss special interest; general vocabulary permits discussion of any non-technical subject with some circumlocutions. Professional vocabulary broad and precise; general vocabulary adequate to cope with complex practical problems and varied social situation. Vocabulary apparently as accurate and extensive as that of an educated native speaker d. Fluency Speech is so halting and fragmentary that conversation is virtually impossible. Speech is very slowly and uneven except for short or routine sentences. Speech is frequently hesitant and jerky; sentences may be left uncompleted. Speech is occasionally hesitant, with some unevenness caused by rephrasing and grouping for words. Speech is effortless and smooth, but perceptibly non-native in speed and evenness. Speech is on all professional and general topics as effortless and smooth as a native speaker's. e. Comprehension Understanding only slow, very simple speech on common social and touristic topic; requires constant repetition and rephrasing. Understanding little for the simplest type of conversation. Understanding careful, somewhat simplified speech directed to him, with considerable repetition and rephrasing. Understands quite well normal educated speech directed to him, but requires occasional repetition and rephrasing. Understands everything in normal educated conversation except for every colloquial or low-frequency items, or exceptionally rapid or slurred speech. Understands everything in both formal and colloquial speech to be expected of an educated native speaker. To know the result of teaching speaking by using Information Gap Activity, the writer gives oral test to the students. Because the test is oral test, the writer divided the score into five criteria, which are the scores of pronunciation, grammar, vocabulary, fluency and comprehension. Then, the data from pre-test, they were analyzed and processed by using statistic calculation of T-test formula with significance degree 5% and 1%. The formula as follows: To = TO : Test observation MD : Mean of differences; the average score from the differences gained scores between I variable and II variable, which are calculated with the formula; MD = ΣD : Total score between I variable (X variable) and II variable (Y variable). And D is gained with formula; D = X-Y N : Number of cases SDD : The standard deviation from differences between score of X variable and Y variable, which is gained with the formula; SDD = -[ ]2 SEMD : The standard error from mean of differences that is gained with the formula; SEMD = DF : Degree of freedom with formula: N-1 The other data will be done by giving questionnaire to students, and giving the some causes that usually make the boring and ask them to make list based on their opinion. From the questionnaire that had been answered and the list had been arrange it will answer question number one and. Table 3. Conversion Table Total score FSI Level 16 – 25 0+ 26 – 32 1 33 – 42 1+ 43 – 52 2 53 – 63 2+ 63 – 72 3 73 – 82 3+ 83 – 92 4 93 – 99 4+ RESULT AND DISCUSSION Result In this chapter the researcher presented and analyzed the data. Dealing with analyzing the data, the researcher used t-test formula. The data were obtained from the test had been done previously. A. Description of Data After conducting the research, the writer obtained two kinds of data the scores of pre-test and the scores of post-test. And the other one is questionnaire. 1. Pre-test and Post-Test data a. The Pre-Test Scores The data of the pre-test scores can be seen in the table 4 below: No P G V F C T 1 75 53 52 63 52 295 2 76 73 60 68 73 350 3 74 75 68 70 73 360 4 60 85 74 65 86 370 5 72 95 73 77 93 410 6 64 76 73 73 74 360 7 56 48 55 43 45 250 8 56 48 55 43 45 250 9 - - - - - 10 64 76 73 73 74 360 11 77 93 83 78 90 421 12 55 45 60 45 47 252 13 55 56 77 54 54 296 14 53 55 52 53 50 263 15 64 66 62 62 66 320 16 64 66 62 62 66 320 17 72 95 73 77 93 410 18 64 76 73 73 74 360 19 62 74 60 66 68 330 20 63 57 55 60 65 300 21 55 90 65 65 90 365 22 65 84 86 73 82 390 23 63 57 55 60 65 300 24 58 55 55 50 55 273 25 58 55 55 50 55 273 26 65 84 86 73 82 390 27 55 67 55 58 63 298 28 55 67 55 58 63 298 29 64 66 62 62 66 320 After the data is analyzed, it shows that the mean ( x ) is 328 the standard deviation is 15,55 the median is 350 the highest score is 421 and the lowest score is 250. b. The Post-Test Scores The data of the post-test score can be seen in the table 5 below: No P G V F C T 1 82 93 90 80 93 438 2 82 96 80 81 91 430 3 82 92 80 74 93 421 4 74 90 82 74 90 410 5 83 90 82 75 90 420 6 75 90 70 71 90 497 7 82 80 74 72 80 388 8 72 74 72 75 72 365 9 - - - - - 10 82 93 85 72 93 425 11 76 90 82 82 90 420 12 74 90 82 74 90 410 13 80 84 75 75 80 394 14 84 90 83 83 90 430 15 66 70 70 64 72 342 16 74 80 82 74 80 390 17 82 92 80 76 84 416 18 75 90 76 73 90 404 19 75 80 74 71 80 380 20 80 90 82 76 90 418 21 73 90 80 65 90 398 22 82 92 90 84 92 440 23 74 90 82 74 90 410 24 64 72 70 65 72 343 25 72 62 70 55 60 319 26 72 84 80 74 82 392 27 74 70 64 62 70 340 28 74 70 64 62 72 342 29 73 80 65 72 80 370 After the data is analyzed, it shows that the mean ( X ) is 398,28 the standard deviation is 67,684 the median is 394 the highest score is 497 and the lowest score is 319. c. The Comparison of the Test Result The comparison of the test result can be seen in the table 6 below: No Pre Post D D2 1 295 438 -143 20449 2 350 430 -80 6400 3 360 421 -61 3721 4 370 410 -40 1600 5 410 420 -30 900 6 360 497 -137 18769 7 250 388 -138 19044 8 250 365 -115 13225 9 - - - - 10 360 425 -65 4225 11 421 420 1 1 12 252 410 -158 24964 13 296 394 -98 9604 14 263 430 -167 27889 15 320 342 -22 484 16 320 390 -70 4900 17 410 416 6 36 18 360 404 -44 1936 19 330 380 -50 2500 20 300 418 -118 13924 21 365 398 -33 1089 22 390 440 -50 2500 23 300 410 -110 12100 24 273 343 -70 4900 25 273 319 -46 2116 26 390 392 -2 4 27 298 340 -42 1764 28 298 342 -44 1936 29 320 370 -50 2500 N:29 ΣX = 9184 ΣY = 11152 ΣD = -1976 ΣD2 = 203480 Based on the data in table 5, the researcher calculated the result of ΣD = -1976 and ΣD2 = 203480. Then, he tried to find out the standard deviation of differences (SDD) with the formula: SDD = 2 SDD = 2 SDD = SDD = SDD = SDD = 48,72 To find out the mean of differences (MD) between variable X and Y, the researcher used the formula: MD = ∑ MD = MD = 68,13 After gaining the result of SDD = 68.13 the researcher calculated the standard error from mean of differences (SEMD) between variable X and Y: SEMD = SEMD = SEMD = SEMD = SEMD = 9,22 The last calculation is determining the result of t observation (to) of the test with formula: To = To = To = 7,389 The result 7,389 indicated that there was a difference of degree as much as 7,389. Regardless the minus, it doesn.t indicate negative score. Then, to complete the result of the research, the writer finds out the degree of freedom (df) with the formula: df = N - 1 = 29-1 = 28 df = 28 (see table of .t. value at the degree of significance of 5% and 1%) At the degree of significance 5% = 2,045 At the degree of significance 1% = 2,756 The result is 2,045 2,756 The result of analyzing the data by using the above formula shows that the coefficient is 7,389. It means that there is a significance improvement after the informational gap activity is used to teach speaking. B. Discussion After doing the research and analyzing the data. Let me analyze in other way as below : Table 7. The Result of Pre-test and Post-test Group Pre-test Post-test Observed-t Pre-Test and Post-test Single Group 328 398.28 7,389 From the table above, it showed the mean score of pre-test is 328 and the mean score of post-test is 398.28 It means that there was really significant difference and improvement of the score between them. Based on the result of the data analysis, it is proven that the students. Score of speaking taught by using Informational Gap Activity is better. It means that the use of information gap activity in teaching speaking is quite effective. Another reason based on the students. Responses are because most students find that information gap activity is enjoyable. This reason leads to better attention in learning and stimulate them to participate in information gap activity. But the problem that they faced mostly is lack of confidence and lack of vocabulary. In the early stages of the Informational Gap Activity the students were uncomfortable and uncertain. This led to initial lapses of silence. But soon they began helping one another to decide who should speak. Towards the end, their shyness left them and they began prompting each other with ideas. It can be told that "Informational Gap Activity" is the one of methods that can be used to teach and improve unmotivated students' speaking ability. The prove is that there is improvement of students' speaking score after treated by using Informational Gap Activity and that is really good effect of Informational Gap Activity. CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION Conclusion Based on the research, the writer concludes that: From the result of the analysis of the research, it is proven that the students. Score of speaking taught by using Informational Gap Activity is better than before. And based on the result has answered by the research question, shows that using information activity in teaching speaking is quite effective. The use of information activity makes teaching learning and speaking activity more enjoyable and interesting. Simply that the technique the teacher use is quite attracting them and helps the shy students by providing a mask, where students with difficulty in conversation are liberated. In addition, it is fun and most students will agree that enjoyment leads to better learning. Here, the students have to practice speaking and find the answer themselves of course by asking friend. It will make them confident to speak. In information activity, the world of the classroom is broadened to include the outside world. This offers a much wider range of language opportunities. So, the students can be anyone and in any situation they wish. The use of information activity makes the class more active and alive. Students are willing to participate without any forces from the teacher. The use of information activity makes the students more motivated in learning and easier to grasp the lesson. Problems that the students faced mostly in Informational Gap Activity are lack of confidence and lack of vocabulary. B. Suggestion The success in teaching doesn.t depend on the lesson program only, but more important is how the teacher presents the lesson and uses various techniques to manage the class more lively and enjoyable. Regarding to the teaching speaking by using Informational Gap Activity, the writer gives some suggestion for the teacher and students as follow: For the teacher: The teacher should choose the materials that are appropriate and not too difficult for the students. Before assigning the information activity to the students, the teacher should make sure that the students have fully understood and have the information they need. The teacher should keep control the student activities. The teacher should present the language in an enjoyable, relaxed and understandable way. For the students: The students are hoped not to be shy in acting out their role. The students are hoped to be active and creative in enriching their vocabularies. The students are hoped to use English when they practice Informational Gap Activity although it is hard for them. The students should take part REFERENCES Sasson, Dorit. 2008. Information Gap Activities: Working in Groups or Pairs during Cooperative Learning Lessons. Available on http://lesson-plan-help.suite101.com/article.cfm/ learning games Bartz, HE. 1976. Basic Statistical in Education and Behavioral Sciences. Burgess Publishing Company. Mc Millan, J. H. 1992. Education Research Fundamentals for the customer. New York: Harper Collin Publisher Beard, P. R. (2008, November Thursday 13). What is the Role of the Teacher Today? Teacher's quality. Brewster, C. &. (October 22, 2007). Increasing Student engagement and motivation. Donald ary, l. c. (2006). Introduction to research in education. Dornyei, Z. (1994). Motivation and Motivating in the Foreign Language Classroom.The Modern Language Journal, Vol. 78, No. 3, pp. 273-284 . Hicks, C., & Glasgow, N. &. ((2005)). what successful mentors do. Leech, B. L. (2003). Techniques for Semi-structured Interviews. Political Science and Politics, Vol. 35, No. 4. Defrioka, A (2009). Improving Students' Interaction in Speaking Class Through Information GAP Activities, Vol.3 No.2 33-45 Richards, k. (2003). Qualitative Inquiry in tesol. Qualitative Inquiry . Schmidt, B. &. (1996). Foreign Language Motivation: Internal and external connections. Path Ways to the New Century. Fitriah, M. 2010. Improving Speaking Ability of Descriptive Text Use "Three-Step Interview for Eight Graders of SMPN 26 Surabaya". Brown, H. Douglas. 1994. Principal of Language Learning and Teaching. Third Edition. New Jersey: Prentice Hall Tudor, Ian. 2001. The Dynamic of the Language Classroom. UK: Cambridge University
Economics is about solving lots of little puzzles. At a July 4th party, a super smart friend -- not a macroeconomist -- posed a puzzle I should have understood long ago, prompting me to understand my own models a little better. How do we get inflation from the big fiscal stimulus of 2020-2021, he asked? Well, I answer, people get a lot of government debt and money, which they don't think will be paid back via higher future taxes or lower future spending. They know inflation or default will happen sooner or later, so they try to get rid of the debt now while they can rather than save it. But all we can do collectively is to try to buy things, sending up the price level, until the debt is devalued to what we expect the government can and will pay. OK, asked my friend, but that should send interest rates up, bond prices down, no? And interest rates stayed low throughout, until the Fed started raising them. I mumbled some excuse about interest rates never being very good at forecasting inflation, or something about risk premiums, but that's clearly unsatisfactory. Of course, the answer is that interest rates do not need to move. The Fed controls the nominal interest rate. If the Fed keeps the short term nominal interest rate constant, then nominal yields of all bonds stay the same, while fiscal inflation washes away the value of debt. I should have remembered my own central graph: This is the response of the standard sticky price model to a fiscal shock -- a 1% deficit that is not repaid by future surpluses -- while the Fed keeps interest rates constant. The solid line is instantaneous inflation, while the dashed line gives inflation measured as percent change from a year ago, which is the common way to measure it in the data. There you have it: The fiscal shock causes inflation, but since the nominal interest rate is fixed by the Fed, it goes nowhere, and long term bonds (in this linear model with the expectations hypothesis) go nowhere too. OK for the result, but how does it work? What about the intuition, that seeing inflation coming we should see higher interest rates? Let's dig deeper. Start with the simplest model, one-period debt and flexible prices. Now the model comes down to, nominal debt / price level = present value of surpluses, \[\frac{B_{t-1}}{P_t} = E_t \sum_{j=0}^\infty \beta^j s_{t+j}.\] (If you don't like equations, just read the words. They will do.) With a decline in the present value of surpluses, the value of debt coming due today (top left) can't change, so the price level must rise. The price of debt coming due is fixed at 1, so its relative price can't fall and its interest rate can't rise. Or, this model describes a price level jump. We get bad fiscal news, people try to spend their bonds, the price level jumps unexpectedly up, (\(P_t\) jumps up relative to \(E_{t-1}P_t\), but there is no further inflation, no rise in expected inflation so the interest rate \(i_t = r+ E_t \pi_{t+1}\) doesn't change. Ok, fine, you say, but that's one period, overnight debt, reserves at the Fed only. What about long term bonds? When we try to sell them, their prices can go down and interest rates go up, no? No, because if the Fed holds the nominal interest rate constant, their nominal prices don't change. With long term bonds, the basic equation becomes market value of nominal debt / price level = expected value of surpluses, \[\frac{\sum_{j=0}^\infty Q_t^{(j)} B_{t-1}^{(j)}}{P_t} = E_t \sum_{j=0}^\infty \beta^j s_{t+j}.\] Here, \(Q_t^{(j)}\) is the price of \(j\) period debt at time \(t\), and \(B_{t-1}^{(j)}\) is the face value of debt at the beginning of time \(t\) that matures in time \(t+j\). (\(Q_t^{(j)}=1/[1+y^{(j)}_t)]^j\) where \(y^{(j)}_t\) is the yield on \(j\) period debt; when the price goes down the yield or long-term interest rate goes up. )So, my smart friend notices, when the present value of surpluses declines, we could see nominal bond prices \(Q\) on top fall rather than the price level \(P\) on the bottom rise. But we don't, because again, the Fed in this conceptual exercise keeps the nominal interest rate fixed, and so long term bond prices don't fall. If the \(Q\) don't fall, the \(P\) must rise. The one-period price level jump is not realistic, and the above graph plots what happens with sticky prices. (This is the standard continuous time new-Keynesian model.) The intuition is the same, but drawn out. The sum of future surpluses has fallen. People try to sell bonds, but with a constant interest rate the nominal price of long term bonds cannot fall. So, they try to sell bonds of all maturities, pushing up the price of goods and services. With sticky prices, this takes time; the price level slowly rises as inflation exceeds the nominal interest rate. A drawn out period of low real interest rates slowly saps the value of bondholder's wealth. In present value terms, the decline in surpluses is initially matched by a low real discount rate. Yes, there is expected inflation. Yes, long-term bondholders would like to escape it. But there is no escape: real rates of return are low on all bonds, short-term and long term. So, dear friend, we really can have a period of fiscal inflation, with no change in nominal interest rates. Note also that the inflation eventually goes away, so long as there are no more fiscal shocks, even without the Fed raising rates. That too seems a bit like our reality. This has all been in my own papers for 20 years. It's interesting how hard it can be to apply one's own models right on the spot. Maybe it was the great drinks and ribs.
One of the main directions of logistic support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is medical support which is aimed at life safeguard and health of military personnel, well-timed and efficient provision of medical care in the event of injuries, injuries and diseases, fast renewal of combat power and ability to work in different conditions of its handling and at different period of time. The readiness of medical service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the medical support of the troops depends on the well-timed organization of medical supplies and the refilling of medical supplies full and complete. The qualitative and efficient allocation of medical equipment and medical supplies is a determining factor in this process. The aim of the work – reasoning of the irregularity of distribution logistics in the unified logistic system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the study of the main aspects of management of the distribution of medical supplies from the position of military pharmaceutical logistics. To get the purpose of the research, the analysis of domestic scientific sources and the current normative and legal base of Ukraine have been carried out. Research methods are: information search, comparison, systemization, semantic analysis, synthesis and modeling. In the conditions of logistic support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other components of the security and defense forces of Ukraine, the logistic function of the distribution of logistical equipment, inventory, military equipment and services (food, bath and laundry services, etc.) should ensure the activity of troops (forces) in peacetime and war time. It is the guarantee of the ability to ensure the defense of the state and appropriate response to military threats to the national security of Ukraine, efficiently using available potential and resources. Distribution logistics from the position of military pharmaceutical logistics is the management of all functional subsystems of the medical supplies and health services of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine in order to optimize the distribution of the material flow (purchased medical supplies) from the supplier to the final consumer (according to the applications of the Military Medical Clinical Centers of the Regions). Same, distributive logistics in the structure of a unified logistic support system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not carry a commercial component, and its functions consist in planning, organization of distribution, control and regulation of the logistic process of distribution of material and technical means (including medical equipment and supplies), inventory, military equipment, services (catering, bath and laundry service, etc.). According to the authors, the term «marketing logistics» is not possible to use as a single system of logistic support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and in its subsystems. To sum it up, it was suggested to use the term «distributive logistics». On the basis of theoretical generalization of the data of scientific literature and normative legal acts, the main aspects of management of the distribution of medical equipment and supplies from the standpoint of military pharmaceutical logistics are studied. The functions of distributive logistics are defined, the model of the current logistic chain of distribution of medical equipment and supplies in the medical service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is constructed. It is noted that in order to ensure the qualitative and efficient distribution of medical equipment and supplies, a regulatory and legal framework which regulates the division of powers between institutions and units of medical supplies and defines the responsibility for their implementation in the current conditions of the reformation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. ; Одним з основних напрямів логістичного забезпечення Збройних Сил України є медичне забезпечення, яке спрямовано на збереження життя і здоров'я військовослужбовців, своєчасне та ефективне надання медичної допомоги у разі поранень, уражень і захворювань, якнайшвидше відновлення боєздатності та працездатності в різних умовах їх застосування та в різні періоди часу. Готовність медичної служби Збройних Сил України до медичного забезпечення військ безпосередньо залежить від своєчасної організації медичного постачання та поповнення медичного майна в повному обсязі. Визначальне місце в цьому процесі займає якісний та ефективний розподіл медичної техніки та медичного майна. Мета роботи – обґрунтування особливості розподільчої логістики у єдиній системі логістичного забезпечення Збройних Сил України та вивчення основних аспектів управління розподілом медичної техніки і майна з позиції військово-фармацевтичної логістики. Для досягнення мети дослідження проведено аналіз вітчизняних наукових джерел та діючої нормативно-правової бази України. Методами дослідження є інформаційний пошук, порівняння, систематизація, семантичний аналіз, синтез та моделювання. В умовах логістичного забезпечення Збройних Сил України та інших складових сил безпеки і оборони України, логістична функція з розподілу матеріально-технічних засобів, озброєння, військової техніки та послуг (харчування, лазне-пральне обслуговування тощо) має забезпечити діяльність військ (сил) у мирний та воєнний час. Це, в свою чергу, є запорукою здатності гарантовано забезпечити оборону держави та адекватного реагування на воєнні загрози національній безпеці України, раціонально використовуючи при цьому наявний потенціал та ресурси. Розподільча логістика з позиції військово-фармацевтичної логістики – це управлінням всіма функціональними підсистемами закладів медичного постачання і охорони здоров'я Міністерства оборони України з метою оптимізації розподілу матеріального потоку (закупленого медичного майна) від постачальника до кінцевого споживача (за заявками Військово-медичних клінічних центрів регіонів). Проведено дослідження з обґрунтування особливості розподільчої логістики у єдиній системі логістичного забезпечення Збройних Сил України та вивчено основні аспекти управління розподілом медичної техніки і майна з позиції військово-фармацевтичної логістики. Запропоновано замінити термін «збутова логістика» на «розподільча логістика» у зв'язку з неможливістю його використання як у єдиній системі логістичного забезпечення Збройних Сил України, так і в її підсистемах. Отже, розподільча логістика у структурі єдиної системи логістичного забезпечення Збройних Сил України не несе комерційної складової, а її функції полягають у плануванні, організації розподілу, контролю і регулюванню логістичного процесу розподілу матеріально-технічних засобів (в т.ч. медичної техніки та майна), озброєння, військової техніки, послуг (харчування, лазне-пральне обслуговування тощо). Побудовано модель діючого логістичного ланцюга розподілу медичної техніки та майна в Збройних Силах України. Встановлено, що для забезпечення якісного та ефективного розподілу медичної техніки та майна необхідно створення нормативно-правової бази, яка б регламентувала розподіл повноважень між закладами і підрозділами медичного постачання Міністерства оборони України та визначала відповідальність за їх виконання в сучасних умовах реформування Збройних Сил України.
Anexo 1: Listas de arquitectos, ingenieros diseñadores, constructores, estudios y empresas de construccion que ejercieron entre 1950 y 1960. Anexo 2: Tesis defendidas entre 1954-1960 y conservadas en el Archivo Histórico de la Universidad Central (2016) Anexo 3: Libros especializados existentes en la Biblioteca de la Universidad Central del Ecuador hasta 1960 y que se conservan en el Archivo Histórico Anexo 4: Construcciones significativas 1948-1960 ; Premi Extraordinari de Doctorat, promoció 2018-2019. Àmbit d'Arquitectura, Urbanisme i Edificació ; This doctoral thesis is a historical-critical discourse on the architecture of Quito between 1954 and 1960. It is based on different local voices expressed in word and deed about the city and its architecture in the context of Quito's modernization and improvement with a view to being a (worthy) venue for the 11th Inter-American Conference of 1959; an international event that did not take place. The preparations for the conference activated -in the field of architecture- the dichotomy between the traditional and the modern discourses when deciding the strategies to make the city a 'worthy venue' for the event and with a high international tourist potential. At the same time, debates were stimulated on spatial and building topics linked to the areas of legislation, professionalization, industrialization, and financing, as well as on the "way of being urban" or the sense of the urban. Interconnected fields, in which the power-identity-memory mechanisms were reproduced and expressed by acquiring a specific form in architecture and in urban configuration. From these considerations, the study interval is subdivided into two periods. The first consisted of a period of preparation, between March 1954 and January 1958, with the populist government of Jose Maria Velasco Ibarra (1954-1956) who spoke in favor of cleaning up the capital to host the Conference. This continued with the first year of the social-Christian government of Camilo Ponce Enriquez (1957-1958), who set out to modernise the city with the same aim. The second period occurred between 1958 and 1960, which corresponds to the continuation of the government of Ponce Enriquez. This period culminates with the inauguration of the modern works, which were erected by the regime to welcome the delegations that would attend the planned 11th Inter-American Conference. The critical analysis of the proposals acquires meaning in the socio-political scenario of each government and of the existing relations of kinship and friendship. The analysis is also careful to establish the projects genesis in the framework of power relations present in the professional team conformation, land selection and purchase, relationship with the municipality and with the Regulatory Plan office, among others. Finally, reflection has been made on the symbolic meaning that the governing authorities intended to transmit to citizens through the materiality of the projected, constructed buildings and of official discourses of the time. From the need to find and put into discussion understanding of those who were not linked or ingratiated with power, this story is structured based on the traces left in either discursive or built forms. This work puts projects the influence the official discourses and practises of the time period studied had in trends of professionalisation, unionisation and legitimization in the fields of architecture and urbanism. This projection demonstrates how those years were the turning point in a struggle within the field in relation to the architecture and urban planning, along with its possible incidence in the configuration of identity and urban memory. In this context, the study reconstructs the scenarios within which those discourses were carried out. The possible effects the speeches had are established, in addition to analysing the possible reasons they were excluded from official discourse and citizen memory. The geographic demarcation covers the entire city of that time, bringing to light specific interventions in the city which at that time was growing in a dispersed, fragmentary and sparkling manner. ; Esta tesis doctoral es un discurso histórico-crítico sobre la arquitectura de Quito entre 1954 y 1960; se sustenta en diferentes voces locales que se expresaron en obra y palabra- sobre la urbe y su arquitectura en el contexto de adecentamiento y modernización de Quito con miras a ser una sede (digna) para la XI Conferencia Interamericana de 1959, evento internacional que no se realizó. Los preparativos para la conferencia activaron -en el campo de la arquitectura- la dicotomía entre lo tradicional y lo moderno al momento de decidir las estrategias para hacer de la ciudad una 'sede digna' para el evento y con alto potencial turístico internacional. Al mismo tiempo, estimularon debates sobre tópicos espaciales y edilicios vinculados a los ámbitos de la legislación, profesionalización, industrialización, y financiación, así como sobre la "forma de ser urbana" o el sentido de lo urbano. Campos interconectados, en los que los engranajes poder-identidad-memoria se reproducen y expresan adquiriendo una forma específica en la arquitectura y en la configuración urbana. A partir de estas consideraciones, el intervalo de estudio se subdivide en dos periodos. El primero, entre marzo de 1954 y enero de 1958, de preparación, implica al gobierno populista de José María Velasco Ibarra (1954-1956) quien se pronunció a favor de adecentar la capital para que sea sede de la Conferencia; y, al primer año del gobierno social-cristiano de Camilo Ponce Enríquez (1957-1958) quien consideró modernizar la ciudad con el mismo fin. El segundo periodo, entre 1958 a 1960, de construcción, corresponde a la continuación del gobierno de Ponce Enríquez, y culmina con la inauguración de las obras modernas erigidas por el régimen, para acoger a las delegaciones que asistirían a ese evento internacional. El análisis crítico de las propuestas adquiere sentido en el escenario sociopolítico de cada gobierno y de las relaciones de parentesco y amistad existentes, cuidando de establecer la génesis de los proyectos en la trama de relaciones de poder presente en la conformación del equipo de profesionales, selección y compra de predios, relación con la municipalidad y con la oficina del Plan Regulador, entre otros. Por último, se reflexiona sobre el sentido simbólico que los gobernantes pretendieron transmitir a la ciudadanía a través de la materialidad de las edificaciones proyectadas y construidas y de los discursos oficiales. A partir de la necesidad de hallar y poner en discusión las miradas de quienes no estaban vinculados ni se congraciaban con el poder, se estructura un relato basado en las huellas que quedaron ya sea bajo formas discursivas o prácticas. En este trabajo se reflexiona sobre la proyección que tuvieron estos discursos y prácticas en la profesionalización, agremiación y legitimación de tendencias en el campo de la arquitectura y el urbanismo, para demostrar que esos años fueron el momento de inflexión en la lucha dentro del campo en el que se definieron las formas de acción en relación con la arquitectura y la traza urbana y su posible incidencia en la configuración de la identidad y la memoria urbana. Para esto se reconstruyen los escenarios de discusión y participación en los que esos discursos fueron enunciados; se establece los posibles efectos que lograron; y, se analizan las razones para su exclusión del discurso oficial y de la memoria ciudadana. La demarcación geográfica abarca la totalidad de la ciudad de ese entonces y rescata intervenciones puntuales en la ciudad que en ese momento crecía de manera dispersa, fragmentaria y en destellos. ; Award-winning ; Postprint (published version)
The rise of digital media technology over the last decades has transformed the way in which organizations are evaluated. Judgments by experts and critics, recognized for their knowledge of evaluation criteria, appropriate weightings, and appropriate preferences, are losing their appeal to customers in many industries. Every day, on a plurality of platforms and websites, individuals disclose information about their interactions with organizations and their products or services. Compared to traditional media or professional critics, digital users and customers tend to share subjective and partial experiences, have lower concerns for accuracy and balance, and often put emphasis on the emotional content. As more customers rely on this information for their purchasing choices, firms in many industries find themselves in a position where it is hard to ignore the opinions expressed online by customers as inconsequential. In this thesis, I study how the strategies and behaviors of organizations are affected by this "democratization" of evaluation process. The empirical setting for my analyses is the fine-dining industry.In the first chapter, I study online reviews as a source of information for restaurants, which may learn about problems, errors, or improvement opportunities. I examine what features of customer feedback make it more likely to be considered by target restaurants. With an online experiment in the French restaurant industry, I find that decision makers allocate attention to feedback that is expected to have a stronger impact on the reputation and performance of the restaurant. However, I also find evidence of a "disturbance" effect of the emotions evoked by certain feedback features. With this chapter I emphasize the importance of incorporating affective mechanisms in the study of attention, and shed light on how individual-level emotions impact organizational-level outcomes.In the second chapter, I analyze the effects of the interaction between amateur and expert evaluations. In particular, I study the entry of an expert evaluator (i.e., Michelin guide) in a market, and how it pushes some organizations to make strategic choices that signal their aspirations. Drawing on literature on organizational status, I find that restaurants better rated by Michelin make changes to their offer with the aim to self-identify with the élite group. These changes consist in the adoption or removal of certain features displayed in their menus. In addition, by using topic modeling techniques applied to Yelp reviews, I observe that customers' reactions to the entry of Michelin make restaurants more or less sensitive to the expert's evaluations.In the third chapter, I focus on how organizations use public responses to customers to address criticism in online settings. Recent studies are not conclusive on the reputational benefits of public responses to reviews. These responses may reduce the likelihood of future negative reviews while, at the same time, draw attention to problems. Building on existing literature on reputation and impression management, I propose that organizations may resolve this trade-off by making a strategic use of different types of verbal accounts (e.g., apology). Although public responses to customers may be counterproductive, adapting the style of public responses to the features of customer reviews might be an optimal strategy for organizations. For this study I analyze restaurant reviews in France and the United States using standard econometric models supported by supervised learning techniques. ; L'émergence de la technologie des médias digitaux durant les dernières décennies a transformé la manière dont les organisations sont évaluées. Chaque jour, dans de multiples plateformes et sites web, des individus divulguent des informations sur leurs interactions avec des organisations. En comparaison des critiques professionnels traditionnels, les utilisateurs et les consommateurs digitaux tendent à partager des expériences subjectives et partiales, à être moins enclins à être pondérés, et souvent à donner plus d'importance au contenu émotionnel. Alors que davantage de consommateurs s'appuient sur cette information pour leurs choix d'achat, les entreprises dans beaucoup de secteurs se trouvent dans une position où il est difficile d'ignorer les opinions exprimées en ligne par les consommateur. Dans cette thèse, j'étudie la manière dont les stratégies et les comportements des organisations sont influencées par cette «démocratisation» des processus d'évaluation. Le contexte empirique de mes analyses est celui du secteur de la restauration haut-de-gamme.Dans le premier chapitre, j'étudie les commentaires en ligne comme source d'information pour les restaurants, qui peuvent avoir l'opportunité d'apprendre des problèmes et d'améliorations potentielles. J'examine quelles sont les caractéristiques des feedbacks des consommateurs qui ont le plus de chances d'être prises en considération par les restaurants ciblés. A partir d'une expérimentation en ligne dans le secteur de la restauration haut-de-gamme en France, je trouve que les preneurs de décision allouent leur attention aux feedbacks desquels on attend qu'ils aient le plus fort effet sur la réputation et la performance du restaurant. Cependant, je trouve également des éléments corroborant un effet «perturbation» provenant des émotions évoquées par certaines caractéristiques des feedbacks. Dans le deuxième chapitre, j'analyse les effets de l'interaction entre les évaluations des amateurs et des experts. En particulier, j'étude l'entrée d'un évaluateur expert (i.e. le guide Michelin) sur le marché, et la manière dont il pousse certaines organisations à faire des choix stratégiques qui signalent leurs aspirations. En construisant sur la littérature sur le statut organisationnel, je trouve que certains restaurants mieux évalués par le guide Michelin font des changements dans leur offre en visant à s'auto-identifier avec le groupe d'élite. Ces changements consistent à adopter ou à exclure certaines caractéristiques affichées dans les menus. De plus, en utilisant les techniques du «topic modeling» appliquées à des commentaires sur Yelp, j'observe que certaines réactions des consommateurs à propos de l'entrée du guide Michelin font que les restaurants apparaissent plus ou moins sensibles aux évaluations de l'expert. Dans le troisième chapitre, je me concentre sur la manière dont les organisations utilisent des réponses publiques adressées aux consommateurs pour répondre aux critiques en ligne. Les études récentes n'offrent pas de conclusion nette sur les bénéfices en termes de réputation des réponses publics aux commentaires. Ces réponses peuvent réduire la probabilité de recevoir des commentaires négatifs dans le futur mais, dans le même temps, elles attirent l'attention sur les problèmes en question. M'appuyant sur la littérature existante sur la réputation et sur l'«impression management», je propose que les organisations peuvent résoudre cet arbitrage en utilisant stratégiquement les différents types de réponses verbales (ex: l'excuse). Bien que les réponses publiques adressées aux consommateurs puissent être contre-productives, adapter le style des réponses publiques aux caractéristiques des commentaires des consommateurs peut être une stratégie optimale pour les organisations. Dans cette étude, j'analyse les commentaires pour des restaurants situées en France et aux États-Unis en utilisant des modèles économétriques standards appuyés sur des techniques de «supervised learning».
El sector energético se está dirigiendo hacia un nuevo paradigma, favoreciendo la aparición de procesos de conversión más eficientes, el uso de las fuentes de energía renovables y la micro-generación. La bioenergía es una solución prometedora para la futura combinación de energías. Los conceptos de ingeniería deben de integrarse junto con los aspectos económicos, ambientales y sociales en el desarrollo de proyectos. Los sistemas de energía centralizados y distribuidos necesitan enfoques a medida para explotar las características de cada posible sistema. Esta tesis investiga el potencial del sector bioenergético, mediante el estudio de la gasificación de biomasa a través de técnicas avanzadas de modelización de procesos y de la incorporación de la gestión de la cadena de suministro, en el marco del diseño conceptual para la toma de decisiones. Los sistemas estudiados son: (i) gasificación integrada con ciclo combinado y con métodos de captura y almacenamiento de CO2 (IGCC-CCS, 285 MWe) para los sistemas de energía centralizados, y (ii) un gasificador de biomasa combinada con un motor de gas (BG-GE, 14 kWe) para los sistemas de energía distribuidos. La superestructura concebida puede ser utilizada en el diseño preliminar de alternativas para los diferentes procesos considerados, para adaptar los ya existentes y para adquirir conocimiento sobre las condiciones de operación de plantas de gasificación. El problema de optimización multi-objetivo considerado evalúa el equilibrio entre los criterios técnico-económicos y ambientales de 25 escenarios, con mezclas de diferentes materias primas y cambios topológicos: mezclas de carbón, coque y biomasa y la generación de electricidad a partir de gas de síntesis, la generación de electricidad a partir de H2 y la producción de H2 puro, considerando o no el uso del gas de purga del PSA en el ciclo combinado. El análisis de Pareto revela que como mejores escenarios el que utiliza coque de petróleo como materia prima para producir H2, con reciclo del gas de purga del PSA y el que utiliza biomasa residual sin reaprovechamiento del gas de purga del PSA. La implementación de la tecnología CCS conlleva una penalización en la eficiencia de un 8,7% en términos de potencia neta, si el H2 se utiliza en el ciclo combinado. La gestión de cadenas de suministro de sistemas centralizados, señalan que España tiene potencial de biomasa residual, invirtiendo en nuevas centrales IGCC-CCS, o para producir electricidad mediante co-combustión en las centrales térmicas de carbón ya existentes. Para el primer caso, el valor actual neto óptimo es 230 millones de € para un periodo considerado de 25 años. Para el segundo caso, se ha calculado que las políticas de subvención en este tipo de proyectos deben de tener en cuenta la sostenibilidad económica, cubriendo en un rango de 5,84% a 20,25% el aumento de los precios de la electricidad. El caso de estudio propuesto y optimizado como ejemplo de un sistema distribuido tiene en cuenta una comunidad de Ghana en el marco de la electrificación rural, a abastecer con peladuras de yuca y mediante sistemas BG-GE. Los resultados revelan una red inviable. De las cadenas de suministro resultantes como óptimas, se puede deducir que cierto nivel de centralización es necesario para que las propuestas sean sostenibles en el tiempo. El sector de la bioenergía cumple ofrece ventajas en términos de impacto ambiental y social. Su implementación es posible con el apoyo de las tecnologías actuales de conversión de energía. Los principales retos están en la mejora de los procesos de pretratamiento de la biomasa y en su almacenamiento. La conversión de la biomasa, junto con los métodos de captura y almacenamiento de CO2, necesitan de incentivos políticos para poder penetrar definitivamente en el mercado, como sería el caso de cualquier otra tecnología alternativa de conversión de energía ; The energy sector faces a new energy paradigm, with more efficient conversion processes, renewable sources and micro-generation. Bioenergy is a promising solution. Engineering aspects must be integrated with economic, environmental and social aspects in bioenergy projects. Biomass properties enhancement is crucial. It concerns energy and matter densifications, for stabilisation and easier transport. Tailor-made approaches are needed to account for the characteristics of each potential system, being it centralised or distributed. This thesis has assessed the bioenergy potential using advanced modelling techniques, enlarged with supply chain management strategies, in the framework of conceptual design for decision-making. The studied energy systems are (i) an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant combined with carbon capture and storage (IGCC-CCS, 285 MWe) for centralised energy systems, and (ii) a biomass gasifier with a gas engine (BG-GE, 14 kWe) for distributed energy systems. Process system modelling and optimisation approaches are integrated with supply chain management to analyse co-gasification and co-production of electricity and hydrogen alternatives in IGCC-CCS, and co-combustion of biomass and coal in pulverised coal power plants in the light of economic and environmental considerations. Process modelling is integrated with supply chain management optimisation for rural electrification by BG-GE systems, considering economic, environmental and social issues. The superstructure can be used for the design of process alternatives, retrofit of existing ones and to gain knowledge on operation of IGCC-CCS. The multi-objective optimisation problem evaluates the trade-off between techno-economic and environmental criteria of 25 scenarios. Considerations comprise different coal, petcoke and biomass combinations and electricity generation from syngas, electricity generation from H2 and purified H2 production without and with PSA purge gas use in the combined cycle. The Pareto frontier analyses reveals that the scenario with petcoke as feedstock for H2 production with PSA flue gas profit is the best in terms of techno-economic optimisation. The scenario with residual biomass without PSA flue gas profit is the best in terms of environmental optimisation. CCS technology implementation leads to an efficiency penalty of 8.7% in net power terms if H2 is used in the IGCC. To maintain the same power level than that obtained with the combustion of syngas, the feedstock should be increased by 21% on a mass basis. Supply chain studies highlight, for Spain, a huge biomass waste potential for electricity and H2 production by investing on new IGCC-CCS power plants, or adaptation of existing plants. For the first case, the optimal NPV is around 230M€ for a period of 25 years. The sensitivity of the optimal solutions to changes in prices is demonstrated. For the second case, policy subsidies or alternatively price increases range from 5.84% to 20.25%. The investment is within 549M€ and 1640M€. A supply chain in a specific community from Ghana is proposed for rural electrification using cassava peels. Optimisations considers 9 communities and an overall electricity demand of 118 MWh/yr. The results reveal an unviable network. From the resulting networks, distributed approaches need a certain level of centralisation to be feasible on time. Bioenergy offers decisive advantages in terms of environmental and social impacts. Its deployment is straightforward to support with current energy conversion technologies. Challenges concern the biomass pre-treatment and storage. Despite all the striking advantages, political incentives are needed for definitive market entry, as would be the case for any energy conversion alternative. ; Postprint (published version)
El sector energético se está dirigiendo hacia un nuevo paradigma, favoreciendo la aparición de procesos de conversión más eficientes, el uso de las fuentes de energía renovables y la micro-generación. La bioenergía es una solución prometedora para la futura combinación de energías. Los conceptos de ingeniería deben de integrarse junto con los aspectos económicos, ambientales y sociales en el desarrollo de proyectos. Los sistemas de energía centralizados y distribuidos necesitan enfoques a medida para explotar las características de cada posible sistema. Esta tesis investiga el potencial del sector bioenergético, mediante el estudio de la gasificación de biomasa a través de técnicas avanzadas de modelización de procesos y de la incorporación de la gestión de la cadena de suministro, en el marco del diseño conceptual para la toma de decisiones. Los sistemas estudiados son: (i) gasificación integrada con ciclo combinado y con métodos de captura y almacenamiento de CO2 (IGCC-CCS, 285 MWe) para los sistemas de energía centralizados, y (ii) un gasificador de biomasa combinada con un motor de gas (BG-GE, 14 kWe) para los sistemas de energía distribuidos. La superestructura concebida puede ser utilizada en el diseño preliminar de alternativas para los diferentes procesos considerados, para adaptar los ya existentes y para adquirir conocimiento sobre las condiciones de operación de plantas de gasificación. El problema de optimización multi-objetivo considerado evalúa el equilibrio entre los criterios técnico-económicos y ambientales de 25 escenarios, con mezclas de diferentes materias primas y cambios topológicos: mezclas de carbón, coque y biomasa y la generación de electricidad a partir de gas de síntesis, la generación de electricidad a partir de H2 y la producción de H2 puro, considerando o no el uso del gas de purga del PSA en el ciclo combinado. El análisis de Pareto revela que como mejores escenarios el que utiliza coque de petróleo como materia prima para producir H2, con reciclo del gas de purga del PSA y el que utiliza biomasa residual sin reaprovechamiento del gas de purga del PSA. La implementación de la tecnología CCS conlleva una penalización en la eficiencia de un 8,7% en términos de potencia neta, si el H2 se utiliza en el ciclo combinado. La gestión de cadenas de suministro de sistemas centralizados, señalan que España tiene potencial de biomasa residual, invirtiendo en nuevas centrales IGCC-CCS, o para producir electricidad mediante co-combustión en las centrales térmicas de carbón ya existentes. Para el primer caso, el valor actual neto óptimo es 230 millones de € para un periodo considerado de 25 años. Para el segundo caso, se ha calculado que las políticas de subvención en este tipo de proyectos deben de tener en cuenta la sostenibilidad económica, cubriendo en un rango de 5,84% a 20,25% el aumento de los precios de la electricidad. El caso de estudio propuesto y optimizado como ejemplo de un sistema distribuido tiene en cuenta una comunidad de Ghana en el marco de la electrificación rural, a abastecer con peladuras de yuca y mediante sistemas BG-GE. Los resultados revelan una red inviable. De las cadenas de suministro resultantes como óptimas, se puede deducir que cierto nivel de centralización es necesario para que las propuestas sean sostenibles en el tiempo. El sector de la bioenergía cumple ofrece ventajas en términos de impacto ambiental y social. Su implementación es posible con el apoyo de las tecnologías actuales de conversión de energía. Los principales retos están en la mejora de los procesos de pretratamiento de la biomasa y en su almacenamiento. La conversión de la biomasa, junto con los métodos de captura y almacenamiento de CO2, necesitan de incentivos políticos para poder penetrar definitivamente en el mercado, como sería el caso de cualquier otra tecnología alternativa de conversión de energía ; The energy sector faces a new energy paradigm, with more efficient conversion processes, renewable sources and micro-generation. Bioenergy is a promising solution. Engineering aspects must be integrated with economic, environmental and social aspects in bioenergy projects. Biomass properties enhancement is crucial. It concerns energy and matter densifications, for stabilisation and easier transport. Tailor-made approaches are needed to account for the characteristics of each potential system, being it centralised or distributed. This thesis has assessed the bioenergy potential using advanced modelling techniques, enlarged with supply chain management strategies, in the framework of conceptual design for decision-making. The studied energy systems are (i) an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant combined with carbon capture and storage (IGCC-CCS, 285 MWe) for centralised energy systems, and (ii) a biomass gasifier with a gas engine (BG-GE, 14 kWe) for distributed energy systems. Process system modelling and optimisation approaches are integrated with supply chain management to analyse co-gasification and co-production of electricity and hydrogen alternatives in IGCC-CCS, and co-combustion of biomass and coal in pulverised coal power plants in the light of economic and environmental considerations. Process modelling is integrated with supply chain management optimisation for rural electrification by BG-GE systems, considering economic, environmental and social issues. The superstructure can be used for the design of process alternatives, retrofit of existing ones and to gain knowledge on operation of IGCC-CCS. The multi-objective optimisation problem evaluates the trade-off between techno-economic and environmental criteria of 25 scenarios. Considerations comprise different coal, petcoke and biomass combinations and electricity generation from syngas, electricity generation from H2 and purified H2 production without and with PSA purge gas use in the combined cycle. The Pareto frontier analyses reveals that the scenario with petcoke as feedstock for H2 production with PSA flue gas profit is the best in terms of techno-economic optimisation. The scenario with residual biomass without PSA flue gas profit is the best in terms of environmental optimisation. CCS technology implementation leads to an efficiency penalty of 8.7% in net power terms if H2 is used in the IGCC. To maintain the same power level than that obtained with the combustion of syngas, the feedstock should be increased by 21% on a mass basis. Supply chain studies highlight, for Spain, a huge biomass waste potential for electricity and H2 production by investing on new IGCC-CCS power plants, or adaptation of existing plants. For the first case, the optimal NPV is around 230M€ for a period of 25 years. The sensitivity of the optimal solutions to changes in prices is demonstrated. For the second case, policy subsidies or alternatively price increases range from 5.84% to 20.25%. The investment is within 549M€ and 1640M€. A supply chain in a specific community from Ghana is proposed for rural electrification using cassava peels. Optimisations considers 9 communities and an overall electricity demand of 118 MWh/yr. The results reveal an unviable network. From the resulting networks, distributed approaches need a certain level of centralisation to be feasible on time. Bioenergy offers decisive advantages in terms of environmental and social impacts. Its deployment is straightforward to support with current energy conversion technologies. Challenges concern the biomass pre-treatment and storage. Despite all the striking advantages, political incentives are needed for definitive market entry, as would be the case for any energy conversion alternative. ; Postprint (published version)
The Israeli Supreme Court has ruled — again — that ultra-Orthodox men can no longer claim their customary exemption from national military service. This has sparked massive protest and speculation that it will lead to the collapse of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition should he comply with the court's ruling. The underlying hopes, or fears, depending on one's view of the government, is that Netanyahu will have no choice but to implement the ruling and that, if he does, the religious and ultra-right parties will have no choice but to bolt. Not so fast.
When Israel's first prime minister was assembling a workable government after establishment of the state, he made a deal with the ultra-orthodox community to secure the exemption of students in religious academies (yeshivas) from military service. The deal was incorporated into the framework of defense regulations under the 1949 Defense law. The terms of the deal were simply that students would be exempt until the age of 40 when they were no longer liable for military service. After that, they could seek employment outside of the world of Torah study.
As a practical matter, they were allowed to leave their yeshivas and find employment when they were 30 years old. This was a good deal, but affected only the very few males who were studying in those days in yeshivas, perhaps about 40 in number.
As the number of Haredis grew and organized politically, they became powerful swing parties, prepared to help push the coalition most prepared to meet their demands over the top following close elections. Even politicians who swept into office would still reward religious parties who joined their governing coalition as, for example, Likud Prime Minister Menachem Begin did in 1977, when he toppled the prevailing Labor ascendancy in an astounding victory. In so doing, however, he seeded a backlash that lay mostly dormant until the late 1990s, when Labor returned briefly to lead the country.
In 1998, in the case of Rubenstein v. Minister of Defense, the High Court of Justice ruled that the defense minister had no legal authority to exempt Israeli Jews from military service. The Labor government appointed Zvi Tal, a High Court justice, to develop a durable legal solution to what was, in essence, a political problem. As the then Chief Justice framed the issue, he wrote "the current situation, in which a significant portion of these individuals of service age do not risk their lives for the security of the State is very discriminatory." This study led to the Tal law enacted by the Knesset in 2002.
The law was meant to be a temporary measure, to be renewed by the Knesset every 5 years, pending a long term solution to the conundrum the Chief Justice had spelled out four years before. It provided that exemptions could be made until the age of 23 — a 5-year span beginning with the normal age of conscription at 18, to be followed by a 16-month enlistment, half the normal time, a year of civilian service, or full time Torah study. This was catnip to Haredim, who seized it as a blank check for their men to evade military service permanently by enjoying subsidized devotional scholarship. The High Court of Justice shared this view of the law, although not from the same perspective, and shot it down in 2012 for violating the Human Dignity section of Israel's Basic Law.
When Netanyahu formed a government with a secular centrist party, Yesh Atid, in 2012, he embraced the Yesh Atid slogan that the ultra-orthodox should "share the burden." Once again, a commission to find a way out of the legal and political cul de sac was formed by the science and technology minister, Yaakov Peri. Pending his report, the High Court allowed the defense minister to set the rules for service exemptions.
In 2014 another bill was passed that gave the Haredi community three years to usher 60% of hitherto exempt students into military service. If that goal were not met then all Haredi men eligible for service but not in uniform would face criminal and financial penalties. During the three-year runup to implementation, however, there would be no penalties. The following year, the Haredi parties were back in government and got the 2014 law amended to make it friendlier to Haredi interests. Criminal penalties were dropped, and additional three years were added to the time frame preceding implementation.
The High Court of Justice, by that point, was fed up and struck down the amended law and instructed the government to come up with yet another one.
The Court's demand coincided with a long period of political instability. There was a moment when Likud's then leader, Naftali Bennett, and centrist Yair Lapid paired up to form a government and tasked the defense minister, Benny Gantz to come up with a plan to make progress toward Haredi conscription. His approach took a page from older playbooks and stipulated that exemptions expire at the age of 21. The bill however went nowhere, reflecting as it did the government's evident weakness.
When Netanyahu came back in 2022 at the helm of a far right government, the Haredim were in a position to push back. The plan was to pass a law that would enable the Knesset to override High Court rulings. For the far right generally and the Haredim in particular, this would be the universal solvent. The move to draft and pass the law, however, sparked widespread demonstrations against "judicial reform" as the Knesset coup was called, and highlighted the question of Haredi exemptions.
Hamas' October 7 attack temporarily pushed the issue to the back burner, but as the fighting dragged on, had the opposite of effect. As the IDF command was complaining that it lacked the personnel to prosecute the war effectively even as Israeli casualties climbed, questions about Haredi exemptions once again came to the fore. Public protests swirled around the issue and combined with demands that the government focus more on release of the hostages. The High Court and the attorney general both warned that the government would have to begin conscripting Haredi students in the near future.
The latest ruling included a firm deadline, which in turn has raised questions about the viability Netanyahu's government. The narrative goes something like this: Netanyahu's coalition depends on the religious far right, which opposes conscription, and the Haredi parties themselves. If therefore Netanyahu were to heed to court's ruling, these parties would bolt, bringing down the government.
But this narrative ignores inconvenient facts. The first is that Netanyahu has some maneuvering room vis a vis the demands of the court and his own attorney general. He can meet these through partial compliance, assurances that he will bring to the Knesset a new bill that will make both the Haredis and the court happy, or stall in ways that don't come immediately to mind of observers but are under consideration within the government.
Second, the Haredis and the religious far right understand the public resentment regarding Haredi exemptions — even Bezalel Smotrich, the leader of a far-right religious party in Netanyahu's coalition — has made conciliatory noises. And they understand that however much Netanyahu might move to accommodate to the requirements of the court and attorney general, he's not going to go as far as the center or center right.
They are therefore unlikely to bolt. And the mainstream Likud party leaders would rather work with Netanyahu to fashion compromise solutions than see the government fall and themselves in the opposition or in a tortured and torturous coalition with centrist parties. So those anticipating the fall of the government, are advised to wait sitting down.
Метою цієї публікації є висвітлення історії Миколаївського морськоготоргового порту від зародження торгового мореплавання в регіонісучасного міста Миколаєва до початку ХХ ст. у контексті історичногорозвитку Миколаєва як промислово-комерційного центру Півдня України.У ХІХ – на початку ХХ ст. порт мав найменування Миколаївськийміжнародний комерційний (або торговий) порт. Автор спиралася напринципи історизму, об'єктивності, всебічності й комплексності, атакож на соціальні та матеріалістичні підходи до розуміння історії, заяких економічні аспекти першочергово беруться до уваги під часдослідження. Вагоме значення мали принципи й методи, напрацьованіісториками науки і техніки. Використано також методи джерелознавчого аналізу, оскільки дослідження ґрунтується переважно наархівних джерелах.Засади торгового мореплавання в Чорноморському басейні булозакладено ще у IX–XIII ст. У 1788 р. на лівому березі річки Інгул заснованоВільну Гавань, яка вважається прародителькою морського торговогопорту в Миколаєві. Оскільки уряд Російської імперії переслідував метустворення в Миколаєві центру Чорноморського військово-морськогофлоту й через це запроваджував різного роду обмеження, міжнароднаторгівля припинилася.Миколаївське купецтво в основному займалося забезпеченням Адміралтейства, підприємств морського відомства й флоту потрібними їмматеріалами й товарами. Після Кримської війни (1853–1856 рр.) тазапровадження обмежувальних статей Паризького мирного договору(1856 р.) суднобудування в Миколаєві припинилося, Головне управлінняЧорноморського флоту та портів було ліквідоване. Миколаїв поринув углибоку економічну кризу. Миколаївський військовий губернатор М. Аркасстав ініціатором заснування Російського товариства пароплавства таторгівлі, однак діяльність товариства не мала значного впливу наекономіку Миколаєва. У 1860 р. Миколаївський військовий губернаторБ. Глазенап запропонував відкрити порт у Миколаєві для заходуіноземних суден і експортно-імпортних операцій. Порт відкрито з1 червня 1862 р Географічно до Миколаєва тяжів регіон, у якому вирощувалися зернові,тому порт відразу став центром експорту пшениці, жита, вівса, атакож заліза. Уже в перші роки його існування вартість експортуперевищила вартість імпорту. Подальшому розвиткові хлібної торгівлісприяли повернення єврейського населення до Миколаєва, відкриттямитниці 1-го класу, банківських установ, Хлібної біржі, Біржовогокомітету й аналітичної камери при ньому, прокладання залізниці. Усе цезагалом сприяло розвиткові фабрично-заводської промисловості в місті,зростанню кількості населення й перетворенню Миколаєва напромисловий центр Півдня України.Однак із часом з'ясувалося, що порт не задовольняє вимогам часу.Постало питання його реконструкції, проєкт якої було затверджено у1885 р. Портове управління почало діяти з 1894 р. Його очолювавкапітан над портом, який водночас був головою Присутствія ізпортових справ – дорадчого органу, до повноважень якого належаловирішення портових проблем. Порт поділявся на два відділи: закордоннийі каботажний. Під час реконструкції було визначено кордони порту,збудовано нові набережні, елеватор, склади, порт забезпечено новітнімина той час вантажувально-розвантажувальними засобами, транспортерами зерна й руди, у зимовий період судна до порту почали проводити задопомогою криголамів. Разом із цим, було вирішено проблемупоглиблення каналу в Дніпро-Бузькому лимані, оскільки судна з великоюосадкою не могли повністю навантажуватися в Миколаєві й вимушені булидозавантажуватися в порту «Очаків», а транспортування вантажів доОчакова вимагало значних фінансових витрат. Також були встановленімаяки й застережливі знаки.Це дало можливість значно збільшити вантажообіг порту, який у1910 р. досяг рекордної цифри – понад 151 млн пудів, у т. ч. понад115 млн пудів зернових (це складало 14 % експорту зернових усієїРосійської імперії). У цей рік Миколаїв прийняв 527 іноземних суден.Наприкінці ХІХ – на початку ХХ ст. порт працював на засадах державноприватного партнерства (за сучасним визначенням), у його розвитоквкладали кошти держава, місто та іноземні інвестори. Таким чином,історія порту періоду до 1917 р. надає приклад для його розвитку вХХІ ст., коли фактично порт працює в тих самих зовнішніх і внутрішніхумовах, як і у вище досліджуваний період. ; The purpose of this research was to investigate the history of the Mykolaiv Sea Port from the beginning of marine trade in the region of modern Mykolaiv-city to the beginning of the XX cent. in the context of the historical development of Mykolaiv as an industrial and commercial center of the South of Ukraine. In the second part of the XIX cent. and early XX cent. the name of the Port was the Mykolaiv International Commercial (or Trade) Port. The research has based on the principles of historicism, objectivity, comprehensiveness, as well as social and materialistic approaches to understanding history, in which economic aspects has primarily significance. The principles and methods developed by historians of science and technology was importance as well. Methods of source analysis were also useful, since the research was based mainly on archival sources. The principles of commercial navigation in the Black Sea basin were laid in the IX–XIII centuries. In 1788, on the left bank of the Ingul River, the Free Harbor, which is considered the antecedent of the Sea Port in Mykolaiv, was founded. Since the Government of the Russian Empire pursued the aim of creating the Black Sea Navy Center in Mykolaiv and, because of this, imposed various restrictions, the international trade in Mykolaiv was ceased. The Mykolaiv merchants were mainly engaged in providing the Admiralty, the enterprises of the Sea Department and the Black Sea Fleet with the necessary materials and goods. After the Crimean War (1853–1856) and the implementing of restrictive articles of the Paris Treaty (1856) shipbuilding in Mykolaiv was ceased, the Main Administration of the Black Sea Fleet and the Military Port were abolished. The deep economic crisis started in the city. The Mykolaiv military governor M. Arkas initiated founding of the Russian Society of Shipping and Trade, but the activity of this company did not have a significant impact on the economy of Mykolaiv. In 1860, the Mykolaiv military governor B. Glazenap proposed to open the Port in Mykolaiv for foreign vessels and export-import operations. The Port was opened on June 1, 1862. The region in which crops were grown geographically tended to Mykolaiv, so the Port immediately became the center of export of wheat, rye, oats, and also iron. Already in the first years of the Port operation the value of exports exceeded the value of imports. Further development of the grain trade was promoted the return of the Jews to Mykolaiv, the opening of the Customs Office and banks, the Crops Exchange, the Exchange Committee, the analytical chamber at it, the railway building. All this generally contributed to the development of the industry in the city, population growth and the transformation of Mykolaiv to the industrial center of the South of Ukraine. However, over time it was found that the Port did not meet the time demands. The question of its reconstruction was raised in the 1870s, and the project of the reconstruction was approved in 1885. The Port Administration began to operate in 1894. It was headed by 'the Captain over the Port', who was at the same time the Head of the Port Affairs Bureau – an advisory council whose authority was to solve port problems. The Port was divided into two divisions: foreign and cabotage. During the reconstruction the boundaries of the Port were identified, new embankments, elevators, warehouses were built. The Port was equipped with the latest loading and unloading facilities, grain and ore transporters. Two icebreakers helped the vessels to achieve to the Port in the winter time. Simultaneously, the problem of deepening of the canal in the Dnieper-Bug estuary was solved. It was importance because the vessels with large sediment could not be fully loaded in Mykolaiv and were forced to dock at the port of Ochakov, and transportation of cargo to Ochakov required considerable expenditure. Beacons and warning signs were also installed. All this made it possible to significantly increase the cargo turnover of the Port, which in 1910 reached a record level – more than 151 million poods, including more than 115 million poods of grain (this constituted 14 % of grain exports throughout the Russian Empire). That year Mykolaiv accepted 527 foreign vessels. At the end of the XIX – at the beginning of XX cent. the Port had been functioning on the basis of public-private partnership (by modern definition). The state, city and foreign investors put money into its development. Thus, the history of the Port until 1917 is the example of the Road Map for further development of the Port in the XXI cent., when in fact the Port operates in the same external and internal conditions as in the period studied above.
Метою цієї публікації є висвітлення історії Миколаївського морськоготоргового порту від зародження торгового мореплавання в регіонісучасного міста Миколаєва до початку ХХ ст. у контексті історичногорозвитку Миколаєва як промислово-комерційного центру Півдня України.У ХІХ – на початку ХХ ст. порт мав найменування Миколаївськийміжнародний комерційний (або торговий) порт. Автор спиралася напринципи історизму, об'єктивності, всебічності й комплексності, атакож на соціальні та матеріалістичні підходи до розуміння історії, заяких економічні аспекти першочергово беруться до уваги під часдослідження. Вагоме значення мали принципи й методи, напрацьованіісториками науки і техніки. Використано також методи джерелознавчого аналізу, оскільки дослідження ґрунтується переважно наархівних джерелах.Засади торгового мореплавання в Чорноморському басейні булозакладено ще у IX–XIII ст. У 1788 р. на лівому березі річки Інгул заснованоВільну Гавань, яка вважається прародителькою морського торговогопорту в Миколаєві. Оскільки уряд Російської імперії переслідував метустворення в Миколаєві центру Чорноморського військово-морськогофлоту й через це запроваджував різного роду обмеження, міжнароднаторгівля припинилася.Миколаївське купецтво в основному займалося забезпеченням Адміралтейства, підприємств морського відомства й флоту потрібними їмматеріалами й товарами. Після Кримської війни (1853–1856 рр.) тазапровадження обмежувальних статей Паризького мирного договору(1856 р.) суднобудування в Миколаєві припинилося, Головне управлінняЧорноморського флоту та портів було ліквідоване. Миколаїв поринув углибоку економічну кризу. Миколаївський військовий губернатор М. Аркасстав ініціатором заснування Російського товариства пароплавства таторгівлі, однак діяльність товариства не мала значного впливу наекономіку Миколаєва. У 1860 р. Миколаївський військовий губернаторБ. Глазенап запропонував відкрити порт у Миколаєві для заходуіноземних суден і експортно-імпортних операцій. Порт відкрито з1 червня 1862 р Географічно до Миколаєва тяжів регіон, у якому вирощувалися зернові,тому порт відразу став центром експорту пшениці, жита, вівса, атакож заліза. Уже в перші роки його існування вартість експортуперевищила вартість імпорту. Подальшому розвиткові хлібної торгівлісприяли повернення єврейського населення до Миколаєва, відкриттямитниці 1-го класу, банківських установ, Хлібної біржі, Біржовогокомітету й аналітичної камери при ньому, прокладання залізниці. Усе цезагалом сприяло розвиткові фабрично-заводської промисловості в місті,зростанню кількості населення й перетворенню Миколаєва напромисловий центр Півдня України.Однак із часом з'ясувалося, що порт не задовольняє вимогам часу.Постало питання його реконструкції, проєкт якої було затверджено у1885 р. Портове управління почало діяти з 1894 р. Його очолювавкапітан над портом, який водночас був головою Присутствія ізпортових справ – дорадчого органу, до повноважень якого належаловирішення портових проблем. Порт поділявся на два відділи: закордоннийі каботажний. Під час реконструкції було визначено кордони порту,збудовано нові набережні, елеватор, склади, порт забезпечено новітнімина той час вантажувально-розвантажувальними засобами, транспортерами зерна й руди, у зимовий період судна до порту почали проводити задопомогою криголамів. Разом із цим, було вирішено проблемупоглиблення каналу в Дніпро-Бузькому лимані, оскільки судна з великоюосадкою не могли повністю навантажуватися в Миколаєві й вимушені булидозавантажуватися в порту «Очаків», а транспортування вантажів доОчакова вимагало значних фінансових витрат. Також були встановленімаяки й застережливі знаки.Це дало можливість значно збільшити вантажообіг порту, який у1910 р. досяг рекордної цифри – понад 151 млн пудів, у т. ч. понад115 млн пудів зернових (це складало 14 % експорту зернових усієїРосійської імперії). У цей рік Миколаїв прийняв 527 іноземних суден.Наприкінці ХІХ – на початку ХХ ст. порт працював на засадах державноприватного партнерства (за сучасним визначенням), у його розвитоквкладали кошти держава, місто та іноземні інвестори. Таким чином,історія порту періоду до 1917 р. надає приклад для його розвитку вХХІ ст., коли фактично порт працює в тих самих зовнішніх і внутрішніхумовах, як і у вище досліджуваний період. ; The purpose of this research was to investigate the history of the Mykolaiv Sea Port from the beginning of marine trade in the region of modern Mykolaiv-city to the beginning of the XX cent. in the context of the historical development of Mykolaiv as an industrial and commercial center of the South of Ukraine. In the second part of the XIX cent. and early XX cent. the name of the Port was the Mykolaiv International Commercial (or Trade) Port. The research has based on the principles of historicism, objectivity, comprehensiveness, as well as social and materialistic approaches to understanding history, in which economic aspects has primarily significance. The principles and methods developed by historians of science and technology was importance as well. Methods of source analysis were also useful, since the research was based mainly on archival sources. The principles of commercial navigation in the Black Sea basin were laid in the IX–XIII centuries. In 1788, on the left bank of the Ingul River, the Free Harbor, which is considered the antecedent of the Sea Port in Mykolaiv, was founded. Since the Government of the Russian Empire pursued the aim of creating the Black Sea Navy Center in Mykolaiv and, because of this, imposed various restrictions, the international trade in Mykolaiv was ceased. The Mykolaiv merchants were mainly engaged in providing the Admiralty, the enterprises of the Sea Department and the Black Sea Fleet with the necessary materials and goods. After the Crimean War (1853–1856) and the implementing of restrictive articles of the Paris Treaty (1856) shipbuilding in Mykolaiv was ceased, the Main Administration of the Black Sea Fleet and the Military Port were abolished. The deep economic crisis started in the city. The Mykolaiv military governor M. Arkas initiated founding of the Russian Society of Shipping and Trade, but the activity of this company did not have a significant impact on the economy of Mykolaiv. In 1860, the Mykolaiv military governor B. Glazenap proposed to open the Port in Mykolaiv for foreign vessels and export-import operations. The Port was opened on June 1, 1862. The region in which crops were grown geographically tended to Mykolaiv, so the Port immediately became the center of export of wheat, rye, oats, and also iron. Already in the first years of the Port operation the value of exports exceeded the value of imports. Further development of the grain trade was promoted the return of the Jews to Mykolaiv, the opening of the Customs Office and banks, the Crops Exchange, the Exchange Committee, the analytical chamber at it, the railway building. All this generally contributed to the development of the industry in the city, population growth and the transformation of Mykolaiv to the industrial center of the South of Ukraine. However, over time it was found that the Port did not meet the time demands. The question of its reconstruction was raised in the 1870s, and the project of the reconstruction was approved in 1885. The Port Administration began to operate in 1894. It was headed by 'the Captain over the Port', who was at the same time the Head of the Port Affairs Bureau – an advisory council whose authority was to solve port problems. The Port was divided into two divisions: foreign and cabotage. During the reconstruction the boundaries of the Port were identified, new embankments, elevators, warehouses were built. The Port was equipped with the latest loading and unloading facilities, grain and ore transporters. Two icebreakers helped the vessels to achieve to the Port in the winter time. Simultaneously, the problem of deepening of the canal in the Dnieper-Bug estuary was solved. It was importance because the vessels with large sediment could not be fully loaded in Mykolaiv and were forced to dock at the port of Ochakov, and transportation of cargo to Ochakov required considerable expenditure. Beacons and warning signs were also installed. All this made it possible to significantly increase the cargo turnover of the Port, which in 1910 reached a record level – more than 151 million poods, including more than 115 million poods of grain (this constituted 14 % of grain exports throughout the Russian Empire). That year Mykolaiv accepted 527 foreign vessels. At the end of the XIX – at the beginning of XX cent. the Port had been functioning on the basis of public-private partnership (by modern definition). The state, city and foreign investors put money into its development. Thus, the history of the Port until 1917 is the example of the Road Map for further development of the Port in the XXI cent., when in fact the Port operates in the same external and internal conditions as in the period studied above.
Problem setting. The first decades of the XXI century demonstrate the unrestrained, turbulent, even explosive development of the world political process, which raised waves of "color" revolutions, began to distort the national sovereignty of some countries, led to a violation of the international principle of inviolability of postwar borders through military conflicts and "hybrid" wars. It is no longer possible to deny that under modern conditions there is not only a break in the bipolar and unipolar world order, but also a transition to a multipolar world with several centers of influence.Recent research and publications analysis. Empirical approach plays important role in the study of the international systems. It correlates with geopolitical specificity and mainly investigates contemporary interaction of people and states, geopolitical strategies and government tactics within certain geographical regions. Empirical research is characterized by: the desire to specifically explain certain international situation (political, economic, humanitarian), that developed in certain region of the planet, specificity of the systemic connections between global actors; to highlight the level of influence on behavior of the international subjects and decisions of national elites of following factors: socio-humanitarian and economic realities, national potential of the states, cross-regional competition, directions of actions and juridical boundaries regarding interventions of international organizations etc. Serious destructive influence on the contemporary system of international relations is exerted by new wars of the 21st century: wars with terror, cyberwar, "hybrid" wars and so on.Paper objective. The purpose of the article is to seek through systemic, phenomenological and factor-geopolitical analysis to identify the nature of the modern international system and the nature of real and hybrid "drivers" that stimulate its development and, at the same time, turbulence and global shifts. Hence, the research tasks are as follows: according to the ontological parameters to carry out the phenomenology of the "international system"; to systematize the typologies of various international systems; to identify key trends (challenges) of shifts and destructions of the current world order; to substantiate the most significant factors of global turbulence: macro-oscillations of the world system, "geopolitical shifts", international terrorism, "hybrid" wars, humanitarian collapses (pandemic coronavirus), etc.Paper main body. Contemporary conceptualization of the international systems, in our opinion, demands more accurate phenomenological interpretation, since this is a phenomenon of a special type. First of all, international system is a mega-phenomenon of the social type, which organizes the existence of macro communities of planet in a special, relational way. Secondly, international systems are supercomplex in their content and structure, therefore they have to adapt to each other and to elements of the whole environment (this is characteristic of the whole planetary system and of its regional and sub-regional subsystems). Thirdly, according to Phillippe Braillard, informal and poorly organized nature of the international systems is obvious, because it is not always possible to delineate clearly and definitely between the complex that is being studied and its external environment. Fourth of all, international system has capacity of open formation, which explains the low level of integration, even some divergence of components inside of the wholeness.The international system of modernity began to experience radically modern changes under the influence of the powerful "geopolitical landslides" (factors of influence), which caused its turbulence and further transformation: 1) the completion of the collapse of colonial empires and the emergence of many post-colonial countries as independent international actors on the political map of the world, implementing their national-political projects; 2) the global collapse of the model of the "bipolar world" – of closed political systems, which embodied two superpowers of Soviet Union and the United States; the end of the "Cold War"; loss of meaning of the paradigm of the "Third World" for the underdeveloped countries; 3) entrance of new sovereign states into the world arena (after the collapse of the USSR, Yugoslavia, etc.), which are modernizing and introducing their new own geostrategies in international relations; 4) post-communist transformation of the countries of Eastern and Central Europe, Asia and Africa fundamentally changed the ideological balance and geopolitical design of the planet. As a result, the strategic shift of the Baltic-Mediterranean arc into a new geopolitical trajectory took place – into the Baltic-Black Sea arc, along the borders of Russia with the Baltic States, Ukraine, and Georgia; 5) the global economic jump of Southeast Asia as a sub-regional system, driven by the success of the quasi-superpowers of the region: Japan (economic strength and investments), China (demographic and industrial capacities), South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong (technology); India (leader of social democracy). According to Phillippe Braillard and Mohammad-Reza Djalili, this results from the existence of regional subsystems - a set of specific interactions based on general geographic affiliation; 6) the geopolitical "weight" of the South Asian sub-region grows because of the collapse of the North Korea's "nuclear blackmail" militaristic strategy, thanks to the successes of diplomacy of the US President Donald Trump; 7) paradoxically, but currently the political-economic competition between strategic partners - the USA and the European Union - is intensifying. At the same time, military-political tensions between the Russian Federation and the United States and NATO, as global rivals in various geopolitical aspects – war in Syria, sanctions against the Russian Federation because of the annexation of Crimea and aggression in eastern Ukraine – are growing; global migration; Iranian, Iraqi and Venezuelan issues, etc.Turbulent character and macro fluctuations of transitional international system of "misbalance and mutual equilibriums", additionally is determined by the competitive coexistence of states of stable and transitional democracy, autocratic states (that can be differentiated into traditional-conservative, military-totalitarian, authoritarian-modernized) and specific quasi-states. This combination of authoritarianism with liberal democracy is problematic, and leaves impact on the global politics – temporary restorations of the post-communist governments, lack of competent and responsible bureaucracy, corruption-related scandals in the international structures, ignoring of the demands of the global states in questions relating to survival of humankind. The most important factors in the destabilization of the world system are wars, international terrorism and global problems, in particular, the coronavirus pandemic.Conclusions. Contemporary international system is currently in a state of transitional from the unipolar world to the multipolar one, from the stability that prevailed after the collapse of the world socialist system to the qualitatively new international system with several fulcrums. But this process is very complex and prolonged; it will be constantly influenced by the new "geopolitical shifts", as factors contributing to global turbulence and macro fluctuations of the transitional international system: the final collapse of the colonial system; the destruction of the model of the "bipolar world" and the emergence of sovereign states that implement their own geostrategies on a world arena; problems of coexistence of countries in stable and transitional democracy, autocracies and specific quasi-states; strategic shift of the Baltic-Black Sea arc to the borders of Russia with the Baltics, Ukraine, Georgia; the global economic jump of Southeast Asia as a sub-regional system; increase in economic competition of strategic partners – the USA and the European Union; an increase in military-political tension between the Russian Federation and the US with NATO, and so on. ; В исследовательских кейсах статьи представлен научный дискурс по вопросам сущности, методологии анализа, типологий международных систем; концептуализированы новые понятия и «гибридные явления»; гипотезы и выводы авторов на почве синтеза системной и геополитической парадигм; проанализированы феномены международного терроризма, «гибридной» войны, пандемии коронавируса как важных факторов турбулентности современной международной системы. ; У дослідницьких кейсах статті представлено науковий дискурс щодо питань сутності, методології аналізу, типологій міжнародних систем; концептуалізовані нові поняття та «гібридні явища»; гіпотези і висновки авторів на ґрунті синтезу системної та геополітичної парадигм; проаналізовано феномени міжнародного тероризму, «гібридної» війни, пандемії коронавірусу як важливих чинників турбулентності сучасної міжнародної системи.
Problem setting. The first decades of the XXI century demonstrate the unrestrained, turbulent, even explosive development of the world political process, which raised waves of "color" revolutions, began to distort the national sovereignty of some countries, led to a violation of the international principle of inviolability of postwar borders through military conflicts and "hybrid" wars. It is no longer possible to deny that under modern conditions there is not only a break in the bipolar and unipolar world order, but also a transition to a multipolar world with several centers of influence.Recent research and publications analysis. Empirical approach plays important role in the study of the international systems. It correlates with geopolitical specificity and mainly investigates contemporary interaction of people and states, geopolitical strategies and government tactics within certain geographical regions. Empirical research is characterized by: the desire to specifically explain certain international situation (political, economic, humanitarian), that developed in certain region of the planet, specificity of the systemic connections between global actors; to highlight the level of influence on behavior of the international subjects and decisions of national elites of following factors: socio-humanitarian and economic realities, national potential of the states, cross-regional competition, directions of actions and juridical boundaries regarding interventions of international organizations etc. Serious destructive influence on the contemporary system of international relations is exerted by new wars of the 21st century: wars with terror, cyberwar, "hybrid" wars and so on.Paper objective. The purpose of the article is to seek through systemic, phenomenological and factor-geopolitical analysis to identify the nature of the modern international system and the nature of real and hybrid "drivers" that stimulate its development and, at the same time, turbulence and global shifts. Hence, the research tasks are as follows: according to the ontological parameters to carry out the phenomenology of the "international system"; to systematize the typologies of various international systems; to identify key trends (challenges) of shifts and destructions of the current world order; to substantiate the most significant factors of global turbulence: macro-oscillations of the world system, "geopolitical shifts", international terrorism, "hybrid" wars, humanitarian collapses (pandemic coronavirus), etc.Paper main body. Contemporary conceptualization of the international systems, in our opinion, demands more accurate phenomenological interpretation, since this is a phenomenon of a special type. First of all, international system is a mega-phenomenon of the social type, which organizes the existence of macro communities of planet in a special, relational way. Secondly, international systems are supercomplex in their content and structure, therefore they have to adapt to each other and to elements of the whole environment (this is characteristic of the whole planetary system and of its regional and sub-regional subsystems). Thirdly, according to Phillippe Braillard, informal and poorly organized nature of the international systems is obvious, because it is not always possible to delineate clearly and definitely between the complex that is being studied and its external environment. Fourth of all, international system has capacity of open formation, which explains the low level of integration, even some divergence of components inside of the wholeness.The international system of modernity began to experience radically modern changes under the influence of the powerful "geopolitical landslides" (factors of influence), which caused its turbulence and further transformation: 1) the completion of the collapse of colonial empires and the emergence of many post-colonial countries as independent international actors on the political map of the world, implementing their national-political projects; 2) the global collapse of the model of the "bipolar world" – of closed political systems, which embodied two superpowers of Soviet Union and the United States; the end of the "Cold War"; loss of meaning of the paradigm of the "Third World" for the underdeveloped countries; 3) entrance of new sovereign states into the world arena (after the collapse of the USSR, Yugoslavia, etc.), which are modernizing and introducing their new own geostrategies in international relations; 4) post-communist transformation of the countries of Eastern and Central Europe, Asia and Africa fundamentally changed the ideological balance and geopolitical design of the planet. As a result, the strategic shift of the Baltic-Mediterranean arc into a new geopolitical trajectory took place – into the Baltic-Black Sea arc, along the borders of Russia with the Baltic States, Ukraine, and Georgia; 5) the global economic jump of Southeast Asia as a sub-regional system, driven by the success of the quasi-superpowers of the region: Japan (economic strength and investments), China (demographic and industrial capacities), South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong (technology); India (leader of social democracy). According to Phillippe Braillard and Mohammad-Reza Djalili, this results from the existence of regional subsystems - a set of specific interactions based on general geographic affiliation; 6) the geopolitical "weight" of the South Asian sub-region grows because of the collapse of the North Korea's "nuclear blackmail" militaristic strategy, thanks to the successes of diplomacy of the US President Donald Trump; 7) paradoxically, but currently the political-economic competition between strategic partners - the USA and the European Union - is intensifying. At the same time, military-political tensions between the Russian Federation and the United States and NATO, as global rivals in various geopolitical aspects – war in Syria, sanctions against the Russian Federation because of the annexation of Crimea and aggression in eastern Ukraine – are growing; global migration; Iranian, Iraqi and Venezuelan issues, etc.Turbulent character and macro fluctuations of transitional international system of "misbalance and mutual equilibriums", additionally is determined by the competitive coexistence of states of stable and transitional democracy, autocratic states (that can be differentiated into traditional-conservative, military-totalitarian, authoritarian-modernized) and specific quasi-states. This combination of authoritarianism with liberal democracy is problematic, and leaves impact on the global politics – temporary restorations of the post-communist governments, lack of competent and responsible bureaucracy, corruption-related scandals in the international structures, ignoring of the demands of the global states in questions relating to survival of humankind. The most important factors in the destabilization of the world system are wars, international terrorism and global problems, in particular, the coronavirus pandemic.Conclusions. Contemporary international system is currently in a state of transitional from the unipolar world to the multipolar one, from the stability that prevailed after the collapse of the world socialist system to the qualitatively new international system with several fulcrums. But this process is very complex and prolonged; it will be constantly influenced by the new "geopolitical shifts", as factors contributing to global turbulence and macro fluctuations of the transitional international system: the final collapse of the colonial system; the destruction of the model of the "bipolar world" and the emergence of sovereign states that implement their own geostrategies on a world arena; problems of coexistence of countries in stable and transitional democracy, autocracies and specific quasi-states; strategic shift of the Baltic-Black Sea arc to the borders of Russia with the Baltics, Ukraine, Georgia; the global economic jump of Southeast Asia as a sub-regional system; increase in economic competition of strategic partners – the USA and the European Union; an increase in military-political tension between the Russian Federation and the US with NATO, and so on. ; В исследовательских кейсах статьи представлен научный дискурс по вопросам сущности, методологии анализа, типологий международных систем; концептуализированы новые понятия и «гибридные явления»; гипотезы и выводы авторов на почве синтеза системной и геополитической парадигм; проанализированы феномены международного терроризма, «гибридной» войны, пандемии коронавируса как важных факторов турбулентности современной международной системы. ; У дослідницьких кейсах статті представлено науковий дискурс щодо питань сутності, методології аналізу, типологій міжнародних систем; концептуалізовані нові поняття та «гібридні явища»; гіпотези і висновки авторів на ґрунті синтезу системної та геополітичної парадигм; проаналізовано феномени міжнародного тероризму, «гібридної» війни, пандемії коронавірусу як важливих чинників турбулентності сучасної міжнародної системи.
