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Centre for Brexit Studies Researcher David Hearne has shared his expertise and views on what has changed since the UK formally left the EU, and what we can expect to happen in the next few months.

The UK is no longer a member of the European Union. On 31stJanuary I lost my citizenship of the EU. I awoke on 1stFebruary, confident in the knowledge that, thanks to the misnamed "transition period", nothing had changed –yet.

Centre for Brexit Studies Researcher David Hearne has shared his expertise and views on the latest in the Labour leadership contest, and discusses if Lisa Nandy, Labour MP for Wigan, is the dark horse in the competition, and if her 'Leave' stance as oppose to the other 'Remainer' contestants could earn her popularity.

Last month's General Election has further exposed the fault lines dividing Britain and, at the risk of sounding like Cassandra, it's hard to see how the country can come back from this. This certainly has ramifications for the Union that makes up Great Britain (the situation in Northern Ireland is distinct and complex enough to warrant blogs of its own!).

One of the things I have noticed about Brexit is the extent to which it appears to have promoted introspection amongst the relevant parties. Here in the UK, this is manifested in domestic politics, with a furious to-and-fro between those who get labelled as "Brexiters" and those labelled "Remainers".

The political row over Greater Manchester having greater restrictions imposed due to the novel coronavirus pandemic has overshadowed other political and economic events this week. Indeed, it has even managed to overshadow Brexit (where another major row has broken out).

Disruption and change appear to be the only constant at present. We are on the verge of hearing the results of another crucial American election[1](as my colleague Professor De Ruyter noted –the world is hanging by a thread). More prosaically (and perhaps selfishly), as England enters a "lockdown-lite", my ability to see family and friends will be curtailed and all manner of venues and activities will close.

It has been a tumultuous week, both here in the UK and around the globe. The United States of America has elected a new President. Joe Biden will, for better or worse, be one of the most powerful people on the planet for the next 4 years.

As a species, we are pretty incredible. The fact that I am writing this (and you are reading it) is testament to that fact. Our ability to communicate is phenomenal. The fact that I am not merely writing this but am typing it –watching individual letters appear as I move my fingers on a keyboard –is astonishing. That this is happening on a screen and I can edit my words as I go along is even more so.

It seems increasingly likely that the UK will cease to exist in any recognisable form within a decade. This blog is a slightly eclectic combination of my philosophical musings on the subject and a call to arms: we need to start thinking about what that is likely to mean in practical terms and how we deal with it

My last few blog post shave felt unremittingly gloomy. So I thought I'd post something upbeat for a change. I have previously pointed out that lifting lockdown measures is unlikely to lead to a full economic recovery whilst a significant Covid risk remains. A large portion of society will (rightly) feel that social interaction and close contact remains unsafe. Moreover, many of the recommended mitigations for household visits are either impossible or extremely uncomfortable. It's difficult to remain over 1 metre away from people when visiting someone in their home, and most of us feel a degree of discomfort at having to wear a mask around close family members every time we visit them. I can well imagine that such advice will be widely flouted.

It is widely thought that electoral strategies fall into one of two camps. Either they play to fear of the alternative or they are based on the hope of a better tomorrow. This is simplistic but is nevertheless a useful frame of reference.In the US, perhaps the best example of the politics of hope was Ronald Reagan, whose sunny demeanour and promise of 'morning in America' won the votes of millions. Bill Clinton similarly swept to power in 1992 to the soundtrack of Fleetwood Mac's "Don't stop thinking about tomorrow".

Covid-19 and Brexit present twin economic challenges for us to navigate. However, they are not the first and nor will they be the last difficulties that we collectively face. In this blog, I present some discussion of how we might optimally face this situation.

Yesterday saw the release of long-awaited figures on the UK economy. They confirmed what we all knew: there has been a massive slump in output and we have been in a recession. In fact, this slump has been the largest amongst our European and global peers, a fact I shall revisit later in this blog.Yet all is not necessarily as it seems. Superficial comparisons to previous recessions suggest that the severity of the current situation is off-the-scale. Tohighlight just a few of the figures given by the Office for National Statistics, the estimated quarterly fall in GDP (20.4%) is an order of magnitude greater than the second largest fall (2.7%) since modern records began in 1955. For context, the largest quarterly fall in 2008/9 was 2.0%.

Towards the end April I wrote about the 'rough beast'whose hour had come, or in other words Covid-19; a beast that has continued to make its devastating impact on our lives, communities and economy.