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Abstract. Flood risk management generally relies on economic assessments performed by
using flood loss models of different complexity, ranging from simple
univariable models to more complex multivariable models. The latter account for a
large number of hazard, exposure and vulnerability factors, being
potentially more robust when extensive input information is available. We
collected a comprehensive data set related to three recent major flood events
in northern Italy (Adda 2002, Bacchiglione 2010 and Secchia 2014), including
flood hazard features (depth, velocity and duration), building
characteristics (size, type, quality, economic value) and reported losses.
The objective of this study is to compare the performances of expert-based
and empirical (both uni- and multivariable) damage models for estimating the
potential economic costs of flood events to residential buildings. The
performances of four literature flood damage models of different natures and
complexities are compared with those of univariable, bivariable and
multivariable models trained and tested by using empirical records from
Italy. The uni- and bivariable models are developed by using linear,
logarithmic and square root regression, whereas multivariable models are
based on two machine-learning techniques: random forest and artificial neural networks. Results provide important insights about the choice of the
damage modelling approach for operational disaster risk management. Our
findings suggest that multivariable models have better potential for
producing reliable damage estimates when extensive ancillary data for flood
event characterisation are available, while univariable models can be
adequate if data are scarce. The analysis also highlights that expert-based
synthetic models are likely better suited for transferability to other areas
compared to empirically based flood damage models.

IntroductionCentral nervous system (CNS) penetration‐effectiveness (CPE) rank was proposed in 2008 as an estimate of penetration of ARV regimen into the CNS, and validated as predictor of CSF HIV‐1 replication. Results on predictive role of CPE on neurocognitive and clinical outcome were conflicting.Materials and MethodsRetrospective, cross‐sectional analysis of neurocognitive profile in HIV‐infected cART‐treated patients. All patients underwent neuropsychological (NP) assessment by standardized battery of 14 tests on 5 different domains. People were classified as having NCI if they scored >1 standard deviation (SD) below the normal mean in at least two tests, or >2 SD below in one test. Linear and logistic regression analyses were fitted using as outcome Npz8 and impaired/not impaired respectively.ResultsA total of 660 HIV‐infected cART‐treated individuals from 2009 to 2014, contributing a total of 1003 tests (mean age 49 (IQR 43–56), male 82%; median current CD4 586/mm3; 18% HCV infected; HIV‐RNA <40 cp/mL in 84%). Current ARV regimen was 2NRTIs+1NNRTI 50.3%, 2NRTI+1PI/r in 32.6%, NRTI sparing in 11.1%. Mean CPE of current regimens was 6.6 (95% CI 6.5–6.7). As per test multivariable analysis, higher CPE values were associated to poor NP tasks (Beta=−0,09; 95% CI −0,14 −0,03; p=0.002 at multivariable linear regression). The association between higher CPE and increased NCI risk was confirmed at multivariable logistic regression, with a 1.24‐fold risk of NCI occurrence for each point increase of CPE of current regimen at the time of NP testing (see Table 1). In a sensitivity analysis performed only on patients at the first NP test, the association between higher CPE and poor NP tasks and enhanced NCI risk was only marginally confirmed (Beta=−0,05; [−0,12–0,02]; p=0,19; OR 1,13 [0,95–1,34]; p=0.17). Older age, longer time from HIV diagnosis, current CD4 count <350 cell/mm3 and lower education level were all associated to an increased risk of NCI.ConclusionsIn our analysis, higher CPE rank is associated to poorly performing at NP tasking. Even if selection bias could not be excluded due to retrospective cross‐sectional design, these results fitted with the direct correlation between high CPE and HIV dementia recently recorded in a large observational database. We think that CPE use to guide ART in patients neurocognitively impaired should be revised.

Background/Aim. Staging of bladder cancer is crucial for optimal management of the disease. However, clinical staging is not perfectly accurate. The aim of this study was to derive a simple scoring system in prediction of pathological advanced muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). Methods. Logistic regression and bootstrap methods were used to create an integer score for estimating the risk in prediction of pathological advanced MIBC using precystectomy clinicopathological data: demographic, initial transurethral resection (TUR) [grade, stage, multiplicity of tumors, lymphovascular invasion (LVI)], hydronephrosis, abdominal and pelvic CT radiography (size of the tumor, tumor base width), and pathological stage after radical cystectomy (RC). Advanced MIBC in surgical specimen was defined as pT3-4 tumor. Receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve quantified the area under curve (AUC) as predictive accuracy. Clinical usefulness was assessed by using decision curve analysis. Results. This single-center retrospective study included 233 adult patients with BC undergoing RC at the Military Medical Academy, Belgrade. Organ confined disease was observed in 101 (43.3%) patients, and 132 (56.7%) had advanced MIBC. In multivariable analysis, 3 risk factors most strongly associated with advanced MIBC: grade of initial TUR [odds ratio (OR) = 4.7], LVI (OR = 2), and hydronephrosis (OR = 3.9). The resultant total possible score ranged from 0 to 15, with the cut-off value of > 8 points, the AUC was 0.795, showing good discriminatory ability. The model showed excellent calibration. Decision curve analysis showed a net benefit across all threshold probabilities and clinical usefulness of the model. Conclusion. We developed a unique scoring system which could assist in predicting advanced MIBC in patients before RC. The scoring system showed good performance characteristics and introducing of such a tool into daily clinical decision-making may lead to more appropriate integration of perioperative chemotherapy. Clinical value of this model needs to be further assessed in external validation cohorts.

Abstract Background Bangladesh is one of the 27 high burden countries for multidrug resistant tuberculosis listed by the World Health Organization. Delay in multidrug resistant tuberculosis treatment may allow progression of the disease and affect the attempts to curb transmission of drug resistant tuberculosis. The main objective of this study was to investigate the health system delay in multidrug resistant tuberculosis treatment in Bangladesh and to explore the factors related to the delay. Methods Information related to the delay was collected as part of a previously conducted case–control study. The current study restricts analysis to patients with multidrug resistant tuberculosis who were diagnosed using rapid diagnostic methods (Xpert MTB/RIF or the line probe assay). Information was collected by face-to-face interviews and through record reviews from all three Government hospitals providing multidrug resistant tuberculosis services, from September 2012 to April 2013. Multivariable regression analysis was performed using Bootstrap variance estimators. Definitions were as follows: Provider delay: time between visiting a provider for first consultation on MDR-TB related symptom to visiting a designated diagnostic centre for testing; Diagnostic delay: time from date of diagnostic sample provided to date of result; Treatment initiation delay: time between the date of diagnosis and date of treatment initiation; Health system delay: time between visiting a provider to start of treatment. Health system delay was derived by adding provider delay, diagnostic delay and treatment initiation delay. Results The 207 multidrug resistant tuberculosis patients experienced a health system delay of median 7.1 weeks. The health system delay consists of provider delay (median 4 weeks), diagnostic delay (median 5 days) and treatment initiation delay (median 10 days). Health system delay (Coefficient: 37.7; 95 %; CI 15.0–60.4; p 0.003) was associated with the visit to private practitioners for first consultation. Conclusions Diagnosis time for multidrug resistant tuberculosis was fast using the rapid tests. However, some degree of delay was present in treatment initiation, after diagnosis. The most effective way to reduce health system delay would be through strategies such as engaging private practitioners in multidrug resistant tuberculosis control.

This paper presents the results of attitude, velocity, heave and yaw controller design for an autonomous model scaled helicopter using identified model of vehicle dynamic from parameterized state-space model with quasi-steady attitude dynamic approximation (6 Degree of Freedom model). Multivariable state-space control methodology such as pole placement was used to design the linear state-space feedback for the stabilization of helicopter because of its simple controller architecture. The design specification for controller design was selected according to Military Handling Qualities Specification ADS-33C. Results indicate that acceptable controller can be designed using pole placement method with quasi-steady attitude approximation and it has been shown that the controller design was compliance with design criteria of hover requirement in ADS-33C.

IMPORTANCE: Racial disparities in time to surgery (TTS) after a breast cancer diagnosis and whether these differences account for disparities in overall survival have been understudied in the US population. OBJECTIVES: To compare TTS in non-Hispanic black (NHB) and non-Hispanic white (NHW) women with breast cancer and to examine whether racial differences in TTS may explain possible racial disparities in overall survival in a universal health care system. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective cohort identified from the Department of Defense Central Cancer Registry and Military Health System Data Repository linked databases containing records between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2008, of 998 NHB women and 3899 NHW women who received a diagnosis of stages I to III breast cancer and underwent breast-conserving surgery (BCS) or mastectomy in the US Military Health System during the study period. Data analyses were conducted from July 5, 2017, to December 29, 2017. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome was time to breast cancer surgery. Non-Hispanic black and NHW women were compared at the 25th, 50th (median), 75th, and 90th percentiles of TTS by using multivariable quantile regression. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for all-cause death in NHB compared with NHW women after controlling for potential confounders first without and then with TTS. RESULTS: Among the 4887 NHB and NHW women in the cohort, the mean (SD) age was 50.0 (9.4) years. The median TTS was 21 days (95% CI, 20.6-21.4 days) among NHW women and 22 days (95% CI, 20.6-23.4 days) among NHB women. Non-Hispanic black women had a significantly greater estimated TTS at the 75th (3.6 days; 95% CI, 1.6-5.5 days) and 90th (8.9 days; 95% CI, 5.1-12.6 days) percentiles than NHW women in multivariable models. The estimated differences were similar by surgery type. Non-Hispanic black women had a higher adjusted risk for death (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.06-2.01) compared with NHW women ...

IMPORTANCE: More than 1 million US veterans are dually enrolled in a Medicare Advantage (MA) plan and in the Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system. The federal government prepays private MA plans to cover veterans; if a dually enrolled veteran receives an MA-covered service at the VA, the government is making 2 payments for the same service. It is not clear what proportion of veterans dually enrolled in VA and MA are undergoing coronary revascularization at VA vs non-VA hospitals. OBJECTIVE: To describe where veterans who are enrolled in both VA and MA undergo coronary revascularization and the associated costs. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: This is a cohort study consisting of US veterans dually enrolled in VA and MA from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2013, who had at least 1 VA encounter and underwent coronary revascularization during the study period. Data were analyzed from April 2019 to September 2019. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Number of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) operations and percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) performed through the VA and through MA during years 2010 to 2013, and the associated VA costs of coronary revascularization. In addition, multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess patient factors associated with receiving care through the VA. RESULTS: A total of 18 874 VA users with concurrent MA enrollment who underwent coronary revascularization during 2010 to 2013 were identified (mean [SD] age, 75.3 [8.8] years; 18 739 men [99.0%]). Enrollees were predominantly white (17 457 patients [92.0%]). Among patients, 4115 (22.0%) underwent either CABG or PCI through the VA only, 14 281 (75.0%) did so through MA only, and 478 (2.5%) underwent coronary revascularization procedures through both payers. From 2010 to 2013, these veterans underwent 4764 coronary revascularization procedures (721 CABGs and 3043 PCIs) that cost the VA $214.7 million ($115.8 million for CABGs and $99.0 million for PCIs). In multivariable analysis, nonwhite patients were more ...

Altres ajuts: This work was partially supported by grant UM1 CA167551 from the National Cancer Institute (NCI), National Institutes of Health (NIH), and through cooperative agreements with members of the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR) and Principal Investigators. Centers contributing to this analysis include the Seattle Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (U01/U24CA074794), Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (U01 CA074778 and U01/U24 CA097735), Mayo Clinic Cooperative Family Registry for Colon Cancer Studies (U01/U24 CA074800), and Ontario Familial Colorectal Cancer Registry (U01/U24 CA074783). This work was also supported by NCI/NIH grant K07CA172298 and K05CA152715 (to AIP). The content of this article does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the NIH or any of the collaborating centers in the CCFR, nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the US Government. This study was partly supported by the "Norwegian Cancer Society" and the "Research Council of Norway" (no grants apply). ; TNM staging alone does not accurately predict outcome in colon cancer (CC) patients who may be eligible for adjuvant chemotherapy. It is unknown to what extent the molecular markers microsatellite instability (MSI) and mutations in BRAF or KRAS improve prognostic estimation in multivariable models that include detailed clinicopathological annotation. After imputation of missing at random data, a subset of patients accrued in phase 3 trials with adjuvant chemotherapy (n = 3016)-N0147 (NCT00079274) and PETACC3 (NCT00026273)-was aggregated to construct multivariable Cox models for 5-year overall survival that were subsequently validated internally in the remaining clinical trial samples (n = 1499), and also externally in different population cohorts of chemotherapy-treated (n = 949) or -untreated (n = 1080) CC patients, and an additional series without treatment annotation (n = 782). TNM staging, MSI and BRAF V600E mutation status remained independent ...

PURPOSE: We investigated the association between comorbidities and stage at diagnosis among NSCLC patients in the U.S. Military Health System (MHS), which provides universal health care to its beneficiaries. METHODS: The linked data from the Department of Defense's Central Cancer Registry (CCR) and the MHS Data Repository (MDR) were used. The study included 4,768 patients with histologically confirmed primary NSCLC. Comorbid conditions were extracted from the MDR data. Comorbid conditions were those included in the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and were defined as a diagnosis during a 3-year time frame prior to the NSCLC diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of late stage (stages III and IV) versus early stage (stages I and II) in relation to pre-existing comorbidities. RESULTS: Compared to patients with no comorbidities, those with prior comorbidities tended to be less likely to have lung cancer diagnosed at late stage. When specific comorbidities were analyzed, decreased odds of being diagnosed at late stage was observed among those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (adjusted OR=0.78, 95% CI=0.68 to 0.90). In contrast, patients with a congestive heart failure or a liver cirrhosis/chronic hepatitis had an increased likelihood of being diagnosed at late stage (adjusted OR=1.30, 95% CI=1.00 to 1.69 and adjusted OR=1.87, 95% CI=1.24 to 2.82, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Among NSCLC patients in an equal access health system, the likelihood of late stage at diagnosis differed by specific comorbid diseases.

OBJECTIVES: We studied military health care provider (HCP) practices regarding reporting of adverse events following immunization (AEFI). METHODS: A convenience sample of HCP was surveyed to assess familiarity with Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), AEFI they were likely to report, methods used and preferred for reporting, and perceived barriers to reporting. We analyzed factors associated with HCP reporting AEFI to VAERS. RESULTS: A total of 547 surveys were distributed with 487 completed and returned for an 89% response rate. The percentage of HCP aware of VAERS (54%) varied by occupation. 47% of respondents identified knowledge of at least one AEFI with only 34% of these indicating that they had ever reported to VAERS. More serious events were more likely to be reported. Factors associated with HCP reporting AEFIs in bivariate analysis included HCP familiarity with filing a paper VAERS report, HCP familiarity with filing an electronic VAERS report, HCP familiarity with VAERS, and time spent on immunization tasks. In a multivariable analysis, only HCP familiarity with filing a paper VAERS report was statistically significant (Odds ratio = 115.3; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Specific educational interventions targeted to military HCP likely to see AEFIs but not currently filing VAERS reports may improve vaccine safety reporting practices.

Abstract. Background: Lack of trust in the health-care system after losing a child to suicide may prevent bereaved parents from seeking professional treatment when needed, thus diminishing their chances of recovery. Aims: This is the first large study to aim at evaluating the incidence of lack of trust in the health-care system and associated variables in suicide-bereaved parents. Method: This nationwide population-based survey included 569 parents who lost a child to suicide 2-5 years earlier and a matched comparison group of 326 nonbereaved parents. Using a study-specific questionnaire, we asked bereaved and nonbereaved parents if they trusted the health-care system and measured psychological and background variables. Results: Prevalence of lack of trust in the health-care system differed between the bereaved (46.5%) and the nonbereaved parents (18.3%), giving a relative risk of 2.5 (95% CI = 2.0-3.3). After multivariable modeling, high scores of depression, living in big cities, and being single were identified as variables associated with lack of trust in suicide-bereaved parents. Conclusion: Suicide-bereaved parents show lack of trust in the health-care system. We present possible effect modifiers that may be considered in professional interventions aiming at influencing suicide-bereaved parents' level of trust.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The US Military Health System (MHS) is a global health care network with a diverse population that is more representative of the US population than other study cohorts and with fewer disparities in health care access. We aimed to examine the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the MHS and within demographic subpopulations. STUDY DESIGN: Multiple cross-sectional analyses of demographic and claims-based data extracted from the MHS Data Repository, 1 for each fiscal year from 2006-2015. SETTING & POPULATION: Multicenter health care network including active-duty military, retirees, and dependents. The average yearly sample size was 3,285,348 individuals. EXPOSURES: Age, sex, race, active-duty status, and active-duty rank (a surrogate for socioeconomic status). OUTCOME: CKD, defined as the presence of matching International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes on either 1 or more inpatient or 2 or more outpatient encounters. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: t test for continuous variables and χ(2) test for categorical variables; multivariable logistic regression for odds ratios. RESULTS: For 2015, the mean (standard deviation) age was 38 (16). Crude CKD prevalence was 2.9%. Age-adjusted prevalence was 4.9% overall—1.9% active-duty and 5.4% non–active-duty individuals. ORs for CKD were calculated with multiple imputations to account for missing data on race. After adjustment, the ORs for CKD (all P < 0.001) were 1.63 (95% CI, 1.62-1.64) for an age greater than 40 years, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.15-1.17) for Black race, 1.15 (95% CI, 1.14-1.16) for senior enlisted rank, 0.94 (95% CI, 0.93-0.95) for women, and 0.50 (95% CI, 0.49-0.51) for active-duty status. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective study based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, coding. CONCLUSIONS: Within the MHS, older age, Black race, and senior enlisted rank were associated with a higher risk of CKD, whereas female sex and active-duty status were associated with a lower risk.

AIM: Larger tumour size and lymph node involvement traditionally predict poorer survival in colon cancer patients. However, it has been recently suggested that very small tumours (<5 mm) may be a predictor of poor prognosis in colon cancer patients when lymph nodes are involved. This study investigated whether node-positive colon cancer patients with small tumours had worse survival compared to those with larger tumours in the Department of Defense's (DoD) Military Health System (MHS), a universal health care system. METHODS: Surgically treated colon cancer patients were identified from the DoD's Automated Central Tumour Registry (ACTUR). They were diagnosed with stage I-III colon cancer between 1989 and 2010, with ≥1 lymph node examined, and did not receive pre-operative radiotherapy, and were followed through 2013 for vital status. Multivariable Cox models were used to examine survival differences by tumour size groups and stratified by lymph node status and age. RESULTS: There were no differences in overall survival by tumour size in the study population. These findings remained similar in stratified analysis by lymph node status and age. CONCLUSION: In a universal health care system, small tumour size is not associated with worse prognosis in node-positive colon cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: The Chinese government has promoted the 'tiered medical services' policy in which diseases are classified by severity, mode of onset and difficulty of treatment since 2015 to optimize medical resources. We evaluated the diagnosis and treatment of acute exacerbation (AE) of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) under the tiered system. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study. COPD characteristics and treatments were compared among hospitals in different tiers. Associations were examined by univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis. In addition, multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the possible influencing factors of antibiotics, glucocorticoids and anticoagulant usages. RESULTS: Eligible COPD patients (n = 432) were consecutively recruited from eight hospitals in different tiers in China. Patients in the countryside preferred the community hospitals, whereas patients in cities preferred second-tier and teaching hospitals when they suffer from AECOPD. It indicates most COPD patients are likely to treat their disease locally. The severity of COPD AE increased with tiers of hospitals (p < 0.001). However, our results clearly show that most community hospitals can only deal with mild exacerbation of COPD. Approximately 90% of AE patients received antibiotics. We speculated that antibiotics abuse might exist in the three tiers of hospitals. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that long-term antibiotics usage (⩾14 days) was associated with moderate exacerbation [odds ratio (OR): 5.295, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 2.248–12.473, p < 0.001], radiographic progression (OR: 2.176, 95% CI: 1.047–4.522, p = 0.037), positive sputum etiology (OR: 3.073, 95% CI: 1.477–6.394, p = 0.003) and increased white blood cells (OR: 2.470, 95% CI: 1.190–5.126, p = 0.015). The proportion of glucocorticoids increased with the hospital hierarchy (18.6% versus 45.6% versus 69.2%, p < 0.001). The proportions of severe cases in the second-tier hospitals were 26.9%; ...

En la actualidad, la inclusión es el modelo educativo al que se aspira y así lo recogen las principales normas en materia de discapacidad. Es necesario, por tanto, realizar un diagnóstico del sistema educativo español y su legislación. Este trabajo presenta las siguientes contribuciones: se identifican las principales deficiencias para la implementación real y efectiva de la inclusión; se desarrolla una escala de medida de la inclusión; se establecen modelos causales que explican diferentes aspectos de la inclusión educativa, además de conocer el impacto de las variables sociodemográficas. Para ello se realizan análisis factorial, regresiones múltiples y ANOVAS apoyado en una muestra de 133 profesores y maestros. Entre los resultados alcanzados se destaca que la inclusión es un constructo compuesto por diez factores; que el conocimiento sobre discapacidad no supone conocer sobre inclusión y que para mejorar la igualdad de oportunidades se deben incrementar y mejorar las medidas de atención a la diversidad, eliminar los centros especiales y fomentar la inclusión entre otros. ; Inclusion is the educational model to which the main norms on disability are addressed. It is necessary, therefore, to make a diagnosis of the Spanish educational system and its legislation. This research presents the following contributions: the main deficiencies are identified for the real and effective implementation of the inclusion; a scale of measurement of inclusion is developed; causal models that explain different aspects of educational inclusion are established, as well as the impact of sociodemographic variables. Factorial analysis, multiple regressions and ANOVAS were performed for this purpose, supported by a sample of 133 teachers. Among the results achieved, it is emphasized that inclusion is a construct composed of ten factors; that knowledge about disability does not imply knowledge about inclusion and that in order to improve equal opportunities, attention must be given to increasing diversity, eliminating special centers and promoting inclusion among others. ; Tesis Univ. Jaén. Departamento Pedagogía