Intelligence Estimates of Nuclear Terrorism

In: The annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Volume 607, p. 87-102

Abstract

Nuclear terrorism is not a post-9/11 or even post-cold war phenomenon. In fact, this review of declassified intelligence estimates spanning the past five decades reveals that the prospect of a clandestine nuclear attack on the United States -- be it from the Soviet Union, China, or al Qaeda -- has been a regular concern for U.S. officials since the advent of nuclear weapons. Although the estimates themselves have been a mixed bag of quiet successes & failures, this article's key findings suggest that the threat of nuclear terrorism is very real & that the U.S. government remains ill prepared to counter that treat. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Inc., copyright 2006 The American Academy of Political and Social Science.]