Campaign allocations under probabilistic voting

In: Public choice, Volume 146, Issue 3-4, p. 469-499

Abstract

We develop a probabilistic voting model where candidates compete by advertising in different media markets. Ads are viewed by everyone within a market and cannot be targeted to subgroups such as one candidate's partisans. Candidates estimate the distribution of voter preference intensities in a market, and campaign ads then shift this distribution. Individuals with any intensity vote with some probability for each candidate. We derive comparative static implications of changes in a variety of factors on the advertising decisions of each candidate. Using campaign advertising data from 2002, we find these results to be consistent with actual campaign allocation behavior. Adapted from the source document.