Estimating China's urban unemployment rate: Background, mechanics and an alternative

In: Journal of contemporary China, Volume 11, Issue 31, p. 189-207

Abstract

This paper opens by explaining the political processes that lie behind the definition and measurement of China's urban unemployment. Thereafter, it uses publicly available sources to replicate the inscrutable official urban unemployment estimate for the year 1997. Scholars widely critique the official estimate as under-counting the number of unemployed people, though it is less appreciated that official statistics also under-estimate the number of employed urban people. This paper addresses both deficiencies, unofficially calculating that urban unemployment for the year 1997 was at the rate of 4.5%, higher than the officially stated rate of 3.1%, but closer to the official rate than is often assumed. The authors conclude by proposing additional research that would enable more precise estimates of China's urban unemployment rate. (J Contemp China/DÜI)