Suchergebnisse

Human life quality in an area can be determined through the Human Development Index (HDI). One of the fundamental components for the HDI composition is the Life Expectancy Rate (LER). Even though DKI Jakarta Province has a high HDI, research on the factors that influence LER is still fascinating to do. This study aims to compare the survival probability of the DKI Jakarta residents based on gender (male and female) and marital status (unmarried and married) variables. This study analyzed the lifespan data of 464 people who were calculated from birth to death in 2017. The data were analyzed using a lifetime analysis method with a parametric approach which refers to selecting the probability distributions that best fits the research data. The results showed there was no difference in survival probability between the male and female populations. Meanwhile, married residents have a greater survival probability than those who were unmarried. Thus, the Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta needs to increase the percentage of the married population to increase LER, leading to an increase in regional HDI, for example, through economic empowerment programs and optimization of the Planning Generation (GenRe) program.

Based on subjective survival probability questions in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we use an econometric model to estimate the determinants of individual-level uncertainty about personal longevity. This model is built around the modal response hypothesis (MRH), a mathematical expression of the idea that survey responses of 0%, 50%, or 100% to probability questions indicate a high level of uncertainty about the relevant probability. We show that subjective survival expectations in 2002 line up very well with realized mortality of the HRS respondents between 2002 and 2010. We show that the MRH model performs better than typically used models in the literature of subjective probabilities. Our model gives more accurate estimates of low probability events and it is able to predict the unusually high fraction of focal 0%, 50%, and 100% answers observed in many data sets on subjective probabilities. We show that subjects place too much weight on parents' age at death when forming expectations about their own longevity, whereas other covariates such as demographics, cognition, personality, subjective health, and health behavior are underweighted. We also find that less educated people, smokers, and women have less certain beliefs, and recent health shocks increase uncertainty about survival, too.

SummaryThis study confirms an association between survival probability of becoming a centenarian (SPBC) for those aged 65 to 69 and country-level socioeconomic indicators in Europe: the gender inequality index (GII), male labour force participation (MLP) rates and proportions of seats held by women in national parliaments (PWP). The analysis was based on SPBC data from 34 countries obtained from the United Nations (UN). Country-level socioeconomic indicator data were obtained from the UN and World Bank databases. The associations between socioeconomic indicators and SPBC were assessed using correlation coefficients and multivariate regression models. The findings show significant correlations between the SPBC for women and men aged 65 to 69 and country-level socioeconomic indicators: GII (r=−0.674, p=0.001), MLP (r=0.514, p=0.002) and PWP (r=0.498, p=0.003). The SPBC predictors for women and men were lower GIIs and higher MLP and PWP (R2=0.508, p=0.001). Country-level socioeconomic indicators appear to have an important effect on the probability of becoming a centenarian in European adults aged 65 to 69. Country-level gender equality policies in European counties may decrease the risk of unhealthy old age and increase longevity in elders through greater national gender equality; disparities in GII and other country-level socioeconomic indicators impact longevity probability. National longevity strategies should target country-level gender inequality.