Strategic Competition in Sequential Election Contests
In: Public choice, Band 11, Heft 3-4, S. 377-397
ISSN: 0048-5829
This paper studies a sequential election contest, such as the American presidential primary, in which several elections occur one at a time until a single winner emerges. The conventional wisdom is that such a system benefits a candidate favored in the initial elections because of momentum. This paper uncovers a potentially opposing force if participation is costly & candidates exit when they have unfavorable future prospects. A candidate with friendly elections at the end of the contest will typically benefit from the resulting game theoretic competition. Tension between this strategic effect & momentum helps explain several empirical regularities of presidential primaries. 1 Table, 4 Figures, 21 References. Adapted from the source document.